Commanders

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: 2017 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (5-6) at Dallas Cowboys (5-6)

After a convincing win on Sunday Night Football over the Kansas City Chiefs in week 9, the Cowboys were 5-3 and appeared to be back as a legitimate contender. However, the sky has completely fallen for them in the 3 weeks since then. Running back Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension was reinstated just a few days after the win over Kansas City. Left tackle Tyron Smith then injured his groin in practice. And then they lost linebacker Sean Lee in the first half against Atlanta. The Cowboys ended up losing that game by 20 after jumping out to a 7-0 lead in the first quarter and they’ve lost all 3 games overall since that Kansas City game, by a combined 70 points. Making matters even worse, that win over Kansas City no longer looks impressive because the Chiefs have now lost 5 of 6, including losses to the Giants and Bills.

The good news for the Cowboys is that teams tend to bounce back after consecutive blowout losses. Teams are 46-32 ATS since 2002 off of 2+ straight losses by 21 or more. It’s counter-intuitive, but it makes sense, as teams tend to be overlooked, underrated, and embarrassed after getting blown out in back-to-back weeks. I don’t know for sure that Washington will overlook them or that Dallas will play better after being embarassed, but you could definitely argue that they are underrated, as they are coming off of 3 games against teams with top-10 rosters, the Falcons, Eagles, and Chargers. Last week’s loss to the Chargers led to a significant line movement in this game, as the Cowboys have gone from being 3 point favorites on the early line last week to 2 point underdogs this week. That seems like an overreaction, given how talented the Chargers are.

The problem is the Redskins are a little underrated too, as they too have had a tough schedule. Prior to last week’s game against the Giants, the Redskins had the highest opponent win percentage in the league. Their record isn’t great at 5-6, but they beat the Rams (in LA), Raiders, and Seahawks (in Seattle) and came close against the Saints (in New Orleans) and the early season Chiefs (in Kansas City). They were underwhelming against the Giants, but that’s to be expected, as they were on a short week, coming off of a tough overtime loss in New Orleans the week before.

The Redskins also didn’t have left tackle Trent Williams in the lineup and they might have overlooked the Giants a little bit, given that it was their first easy game in weeks. Despite that, the Redskins still covered, winning by 10 as 7.5 point favorites. Now they get Williams back and they should be fresher and more focused on normal rest. Tyron Smith returned for the Cowboys last week, but Elliott still has 3 more games left on his suspension and Sean Lee remains out indefinitely, so I have the Redskins about 1.5 points better in my roster rankings.

The Cowboys also haven’t had much homefield advantage in recent years. Because they tend to attract fans throughout the country, their advantage at home is significantly less and that’s noticeable in the numbers. They are 33-28 on the road since 2010 (35-26 ATS), with a scoring differential of -0.07 per game, as opposed to 31-33 at home (22-42 ATS), with a scoring differential of +0.91 per game. Homefield advantage hasn’t even counted for a half point for them over the past 7 seasons. If the Cowboys were 6 or 7 point underdogs in Washington instead of 2 point underdogs at home, I’d like them a lot more this week.

Given the Cowboys’ lack of homefield advantage and that the Redskins are a more talented team on paper right now, I have this line calculated at even, so we’re getting some line value with the Cowboys, but not enough to be confident in them. I’d need the full field goal to place a bet on Dallas against the spread and I don’t think we’re going to get it. Unless that happens, this is a low confidence pick, though I will place a small bet on Dallas’ moneyline at +110. At the very least, this is a toss up game, probably more like 52/48 Dallas, so we’re getting some value with +110.

Also, by request, I’m going to be posting lines I lock in early in the week during my Thursday Night writeups this season, so readers can lock them in before they move. These are not all my picks for the week, just picks where I think the line may move in an unfavorable direction (usually underdogs). The rest of the writeups will continue to be posted over the weekend as normal.

NYJ +4 vs. KC (I would also take +3.5 and +3)

Dallas Cowboys 24 Washington Redskins 23 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Dallas +2

Confidence: Low

New York Giants at Washington Redskins: 2017 Week 12 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (2-8) at Washington Redskins (4-6)

Both of these teams come into this game in a terrible spot, as both played games that went to overtime last week and the history of teams playing an overtime game on Sunday and then playing again on Thursday is not good. Teams are 3-21 ATS in that spot all-time as long as they are facing an opponent who is not coming off of an overtime game. Unfortunately, because both of these teams are coming off of overtime games, that trend isn’t useful in evaluating this game.

That’s not the only bad spot these teams are in either. The Redskins lost in overtime in New Orleans last week and home teams tend to struggle off of a road overtime loss anyway (43% cover since 1989), while the Giants won at home as double digit underdogs against the Giants and teams also tend to struggle after a big home upset win anyway (44% cover since 1989 after a win as 4+ point home underdogs). The Redskins are coming off of a huge blown 4th quarter lead, while the Giants are coming off of arguably their Super Bowl, so I don’t expect either teams’ best effort on a short week this week, especially since both teams are coming off of overtime games.

Neither team has an easy upcoming matchup either, as the Giants turn around and go to Oakland, while the Redskins turn around and go to Dallas. Underdogs of 6+ are 56-92 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs of 6+ again, which the Giants likely will be next week (the early line has them -7 in Oakland). Meanwhile, divisional home favorites are 24-62 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road underdogs, which the Redskins likely will be next week (the early line has them -3 in Dallas). I’m taking the Giants because I have this line calculated at 6.5, so we’re getting some line value with them as 7 point underdogs, but it’s not nearly enough for me to be confident at all in them, especially since they’re in a terrible spot.

Washington Redskins 19 New York Giants 13

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +7

Confidence: None

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints: 2017 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (4-5) at New Orleans Saints (7-2)

The Saints emphatically defeated the Bills in Buffalo last week, winning by the final score of 47-10 and winning the first down rate battle by 27.61%. That’s the best single game margin in the NFL this season. They rank 2nd in first down rate differential on the season and 3rd in my roster rankings. One of the best teams in the league, the Saints are a true Super Bowl contender and are a strong candidate to face the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Championship. However, this could easily be a trap game for the Saints, because, after this game, they head to Los Angeles to take on another 7-2 NFC team, the Rams, a game in which the Saints will likely be underdogs.

The Redskins, meanwhile, get the Giants in Washington next on their schedule, a game in which they should be significant favorites (-8.5 on the early line). Underdogs are 65-40 ATS since 2014 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. On top of that, underdogs of 7 or more are 63-40 ATS since 1989 before being favorites of 7 or more the following week. That being said, we aren’t getting any line value with the Redskins as 9 point underdogs. I have these two teams about 7.5 points apart in my roster rankings, so the Saints should be favored by at least 10, if not 10.5. If this line moves to 10 before gametime, I will revisit this pick, but for now this is a low confidence pick.

Update: +10 has popped up in some places Sunday morning. Grab it if you can.

New Orleans Saints 30 Washington Redskins 23

Pick against the spread: Washington +10

Confidence: Medium

Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins: 2017 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (6-2) at Washington Redskins (4-4)

The Redskins are a solid 4-4 and just beat the Seahawks in Seattle without 4 starting offensive linemen, but they still aren’t getting a ton of respect from the oddsmakers as they are 1.5 point home underdogs against the Vikings. The Redskins could get all 4 offensive linemen back this week, while right tackle Mike Remmers is out for the Vikings, so I have this line calculated at -1.5 in favor of the Redskins. Games decided by less than 3 points are rare so the line value we’re getting isn’t worth that much, but this line suggests the Vikings are 4.5 points better and that they would be about 7 or 7.5 point favorites if this game was in Minnesota. I like the Vikings, as they rank 10th in my roster rankings, but I think that’s a little off. The Redskins are only a low confidence pick, but the money line at +105 makes some sense for a small bet.

Washington Redskins 19 Minnesota Vikings 17 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Washington +1.5

Confidence: Low

Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks: 2017 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (3-4) at Seattle Seahawks (5-2)

The Seahawks have to play again 4 days after this game as they are on Thursday Night Football in week 10. Favorites typically do not do well before Thursday Night Football, going 60-92 ATS since 2008 in that spot. There are two big problems with betting against Seattle this week though. The first is that the Seahawks are only facing the Cardinals next week, so it’s not like they have a tough upcoming matchup on the short week. The early line has the Seahawks favored by a touchdown in Arizona. Teams are 73-54 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 5 or more. On top of that, favorites of 6+ like the Seahawks are this week are 103-63 ATS since 2012 before being favored by 6+ again the following week.

The second problem is that the Redskins come in here incredibly banged up and I don’t know if this line fully takes that into account. They’ll be without left tackle Trent Williams, left guard Shawn Lauvao, center Spencer Long, wide receiver Jamison Crowder, tight end Jordan Reed, defensive end Matt Ioannidis, middle linebacker Mason Foster, and defensive end Jonathan Allen, a whopping nine week 1 starters. On top of that, they could also be without cornerback Bashaud Breeland and right guard Brandon Scherff, another two week 1 starters.

The Seahawks have injury problems of their own with left guard Luke Joeckel, running back Chris Carson, defensive end Cliff Avril, and safety Earl Thomas out and middle linebacker Bobby Wagner and defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson expected to be gametime calls. Their injury situation still is significantly better than Washington’s though and this line isn’t high enough at 7.5 to confidently bet on the Redskins unless Scherff plays for Washington and Wagner does not for Seattle. If that happens, I’ll revisit this pick in the morning, but, for now, this is a low confidence pick.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Washington Redskins 17

Pick against the spread: Washington +7.5

Confidence: Low

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: 2017 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Washington Redskins (3-3)

When both are at full strength, these two teams are pretty evenly matched, but the Redskins are dealing with a number of injuries going into this game, while the Cowboys are as healthy as they’ve been all season. The Redskins get Josh Norman back from a 2-game absence this week, but will be without center Spencer Long, while left tackle Trent Williams, right guard Brandon Scherff, and right tackle Morgan Moses are all considered truly questionable. Williams hasn’t practiced in weeks and has not been playing at 100% because he needs knee surgery. Scherff didn’t practice all week after injuring his knee on Monday against the Eagles and is likely on the doubtful side of questionable. Moses is the only one who practiced this week, but he is far from a lock to play after injuring both of his ankles on Monday night.

When healthy, the Redskins’ offensive line is the strength of this team and on par with the Cowboys’ strong offensive line, so those are huge injuries to be dealing with. On top of that, the Cowboys are a great road team because they have fans across the country. They are 32-27 on the road since 2010 (30-21 ATS), outscoring opponents by an average of 0.03 points per game, as opposed to 30-31 at home (21-29 ATS), outscoring opponents by an average of 1.59 points per game. Going on the road only hurts them about a point or so and they’re about 2 points better than the Redskins in my roster rankings right now. Unfortunately, this line isn’t great at Dallas -2. The Cowboys have a good chance to win this game by a field goal or so, but there isn’t enough here to be confident in them at all.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Washington Redskins 24

Pick against the spread: Dallas -2

Confidence: None

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2017 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (3-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-1)

This is the most confusing line of the week. The Eagles were 6.5 point home favorites on the early line last week, but now this line is -4.5, despite the fact that the Eagles won in Carolina and the Redskins nearly lost at home to the 49ers. These two teams are also going in different directions injury wise. The Redskins lost promising rookie defensive lineman Jonathan Allen for an extended period of time last week, adding to an injured list that includes top cornerback Josh Norman and stud left tackle Trent Williams, who were both injured in week 4 before the Redskins’ bye. Williams played through the injury last week in the Redskins’ first game after the bye, despite not practicing much, and will probably do that again this week, but he’s clearly not 100%, while Norman remains at least another week away.

The Eagles, meanwhile, are as healthy as they’ve been since the start of the season. Their 5-1 record is even more impressive when you consider they’ve dealt with injuries to defensive tackle Fletcher Cox and right tackle Lane Johnson, two of the better linemen in the NFL. They will still likely be without top cornerback Ronald Darby this week, but he has a chance to suit up after returning to practice this week for the first time since week 1 and he should be back next week. Even without him, the Eagles top my roster rankings, so it’s tough to understand why they are mere 4.5 point favorites against a banged up Washington team.

I have these two teams about 6 points apart, so I have this line calculated at -9. We’re getting good line value with the hometown Eagles, who remains underrated despite a strong start to the season. The Eagles are also in a much better spot as they only have to face the 49ers next week, while the Redskins have another tough divisional game against the Cowboys, so I really don’t understand why this line is so low. The Eagles are easily my favorite pick of the week.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 Washington Redskins 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (0-5) at Washington Redskins (2-2)

When this line was -7 last week on the early line, I liked Washington a decent amount, as it looked like they continued to be underrated, as they have been throughout the season. However, for some reason, this line has moved from 7 to 10.5 in the past week, despite the Redskins being on bye and the 49ers losing in overtime in Indianapolis. That’s too many points, especially since the Redskins enter this game banged up. Top cornerback Josh Norman is out, while left tackle Trent Williams will play at less than 100% if he even plays this week. The 49ers, meanwhile, could get promising rookie linebacker Reuben Foster back for the first time since week 1.

I have this line calculated at about -9, so we’re getting decent line value with the 49ers. The 49ers haven’t won a game yet, but they’ve been coming awfully close, taking their last two opponents (Arizona and Indianapolis) to overtime and losing their last 4 games by a combined 11 points. They haven’t faced the toughest schedule, but they should be able to keep it within 10 points in Washington. The Redskins are also in a terrible spot because they have to go to Philadelphia next week, so they could easily overlook the lowly 49ers this week. The early line has the Redskins as 6.5 point underdogs next week and favorites of 6+ are understandably just 54-88 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs of 6+ the following week. There’s not quite enough here for me to be confident in the 49ers, but they seem like the smarter pick.

Washington Redskins 28 San Francisco 49ers 20

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +10.5

Confidence: Low

Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs: 2017 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)

The Chiefs have gotten off to a hot start, winning each of their first 3 games. The most surprising part is how they’ve done it. The Chiefs have been a defense first team for several years, but they rank 2nd in first down rate through 3 games at 41.92% and they are tied with the Patriots with 12 offensive touchdowns. Their defense, meanwhile, actually leads the league in first downs allowed with 76 and ranks 4th worst in first down rate allowed at 38.86%, so they’ve been winning in spite of their defense, not because of it.

Unfortunately, it’s unlikely they’re this good all season offensively. They currently have a quarterback rating of 132.7, just 1 turnover on 167 offensive plays (the first play of the season ironically), and a 6.85 yards per carry average on the ground. They’re on pace to break all sorts of offensive records if they keep on their current pace, but it’s highly unlikely that this is one of the greatest offenses of all time, so they’re likely to fall off their current pace significantly. Last season, they finished just 20th in first down rate. They’re obviously better than that now with Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill emerging as big playmakers and Alex Smith playing as well as he ever has, but they might not be a top-5 or even a top-10 offense when all is said and done.

If they’re going to keep winning at a high rate, they’re going to have to play better defensively. That’s definitely a possibility, as their schedule gets easier, after starting the year with New England, Philadelphia, and the LA Chargers, but this defense is simply not the same without safety Eric Berry, who is out for the season with a torn achilles. Berry isn’t the only injury the Chiefs are dealing with, as center Mitch Morse and outside linebacker Tamba Hali remain out, while left tackle Eric Fisher and Dee Ford could join them on the sidelines after missing practice time late in the week. The Redskins are relatively healthy and an above average team that should be able to keep this game close. I have this line calculated at about -4, so we’re getting significant line value at -7. The Redskins are worth a bet if you can get a full touchdown.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: Washington +7

Confidence: Medium

Oakland Raiders at Washington Redskins: 2017 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (2-0) at Washington Redskins (1-1)

This is the toughest game of the week because the line is right where it’s supposed to be and neither team is in a particularly good or bad spot. I have these two teams about six points apart, so a line of -3 in favor of the visiting Raiders makes a lot of sense. I’m taking the Redskins for one reason and one reason only and that’s to fade the public, as the public is betting heavily on the Raiders this week. Casual fans don’t realize the importance of homefield advantage so they think the Raiders will easily beat the Redskins by more than a field goal. I think they’ll have a little bit more trouble than that. This could easily be a field goal game and a push. I have no interest in picking either side outside of pick ‘em leagues.

Oakland Raiders 30 Washington Redskins 27

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: None