Commanders

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: 2015 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 17 NFL Picks, Commanders, Cowboys, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (8-7) at Dallas Cowboys (4-11)

Ordinarily, I would be all over the Redskins as 3.5 point underdogs here in Dallas, for three reasons. The first is that the Cowboys tend to struggle as hosts, particularly as home favorites, going 8-25 ATS as home favorites since 2010. The second is this is a big revenge spot for the Redskins, who were upset at home by the Cowboys earlier this year.  Divisional road underdogs are 57-31 ATS in a same season regular season rematch against a team they previously lost to as divisional home favorites, since 2002. Revenge is far from uncommon in divisional matchups similar to this one, especially in matchups like this where one team barely has any homefield advantage (Dallas).

The third is that the Redskins are much better than the Cowboys. They rank 13th in rate of moving the chains differential and have been playing great football since wide receiver DeSean Jackson returned from injury. They’re playing their best football at the best time and are relatively healthier than most of the league. The Cowboys, meanwhile, rank 17th and are missing key players with injury. With Tony Romo out for the season, Kellen Moore will make the 2nd start of his career this week, the 4th quarterback to start for the Cowboys this season. The Cowboys have moved the chains at a 66.46% rate in the 11 games Romo has missed, as opposed to 72.80% in the 4 games Romo played, and will also be without top wide receiver Dez Bryant and possibly top linebacker Sean Lee with injury in this one.

However, this game is meaningless to the Redskins with the division already wrapped up and the #3 seed out of reach. Win or lose this game, they’ll be the #4 seed and host the better of the two wild card teams next week in Washington. As a result, they’re not expected to play their starters for the full game. I can’t take Dallas, one of the worst teams in the NFL, favored by 3.5 points at home, where they traditionally struggle, in a bad spot, but, because I don’t know how much the Redskins will be playing their starters, I can’t put any money on them.

Dallas Cowboys 17 Washington Redskins 16

Pick against the spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, Commanders, Eagles, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (7-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (6-8)

This line suggests these two teams are even, but I disagree. Not only do the Redskins have a better record, but they also rank higher in rate of moving the chains differential, ranking 15th, while the Eagles come in at 24th. On top of that, the Eagles are expected to be without nose tackle Bennie Logan, one of the better run stuffers in the league, after he suffered what could end up being a season ending calf injury last week. The Eagles are also in a terrible spot, as they play the Giants in New York next week. Divisional home favorites are awful before being divisional road underdogs, 22-58 ATS dating back to 2002, one of the most powerful trends there is.

Despite that, I don’t love the Redskins this week for three reasons. The first is that they’re also in kind of a bad spot too, as they could be overconfident coming off of a home win as underdogs last week against the Bills. Teams are 45-72 ATS since 2012 off of an upset home victory. The second is that this is such an important game for both teams that trends might not matter. If the Redskins win, they’ll clinch the division and eliminate both the Eagles and the Giants. If the Eagles win, they’ll not only put themselves into a tie with the Redskins atop the division, they’ll also even the season series between themselves and the Redskins and give themselves a good shot at winning the division.

The third reason is that the public is all over the Redskins and I hate talking a side that’s heavily backed by the public, especially when the public is heavily on an underdog. The public always loses money in the long run and when they think one team is going to win outright and the odds makers think it’ll be another team, it’s usually a big red flag. I’m still taking the Redskins to cover, but I wouldn’t put any money on it. If this line moves up to 3.5, I’ll reconsider, as close to 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal exactly.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Redskins 23

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Buffalo Bills at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bills, Commanders, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (6-7) at Washington Redskins (6-7)

The Bills are in a good spot here this week, hosting the Cowboys next week, while the Redskins have a key divisional matchup in Philadelphia, which could decide the division. All games are important for the Redskins going forward, as they’re currently locked in a 3-way tie atop the division, but next week’s game is even more important because a win isn’t just a win for them, it’s also a loss for the Eagles and it wins the Redskins the tiebreaker between them and the Eagles, because they’ll own the season series. Teams are 92-65 ATS since 2012 as road favorites (the Bills are favored by 2 in Washington this week) before being favored again, if their opponent will be underdogs again the following week. All other road favorites are 71-95 ATS over that time period.

However, the Bills do not deserve to be 2 point road favorites here in Washington. This line doesn’t make any sense. These teams rank 19th (Washington) and 20th (Buffalo) in rate of moving the chains differential, so they’re comparably talented, and the Bills are more banged up, missing tight end Charles Clay, middle linebacker Nigel Bradham, and cornerback Stephon Gilmore, while the Redskins are relatively healthy. The Redskins should be favored by 3 points, if not 3.5, here at home and yet they’re underdogs. That’s not enough for me to put money on the Redskins, but they’re my pick here and if this line moves up to a field goal, I’d consider bumping this pick up to a higher confidence bracket.

Update: The line has moved up to 3. I’m moving this up to medium. There’s no reason a banged up Bills team should be favored by a touchdown in Washington.

Washington Redskins 20 Buffalo Bills 17 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bears, Commanders, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (5-7) at Chicago Bears (5-7)

The Bears rank just 24th in rate of moving the chains, but have been better when Jay Cutler has been healthy this season. In Cutler’s 10 starts, they’ve moved the chains at a 71.60% rate, as opposed to 56.25% in the 2 games Cutler missed his injury. Granted, those two games Cutler missed were against Seattle and Arizona, arguably the two toughest defenses they’ve faced, so they probably wouldn’t have had much success either way, but this is just the Bears’ 6th game with Jay Cutler, Matt Forte, and Alshon Jeffery all healthy so they are probably more talented than their rank in rate of moving the chains suggests.

The Bears rank 15th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite a below average offense, because of an above average defense that ranks 10th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Vic Fangio has done a fantastic job turning this once awful unit around in a hurry in his first season as defensive coordinator. However, they’re expected to be without outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, who is having a borderline All-Pro caliber season in his first year in Chicago, for this one, which really hurts.

They’re also missing tight end Martellus Bennett and wide receiver Marquess Wilson, which will make it easier for defenses to focus on Alshon Jeffery. The Redskins rank 23rd in rate of moving the chains differential and have a couple injuries of their own (cornerback Chris Culliver, defensive end Stephen Paea, and middle linebacker Perry Riley), but none of those are that major and about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less so I don’t think the Bears deserve to be favored by 3.5 here, especially considering they have just 2 wins by more than a field goal and one win by more than four points all season.

The Bears are also in a tough spot, with a trip to Minnesota on deck. With their season essentially over, the Bears could get caught looking past the Redskins to the division rival Vikings. The Redskins, meanwhile, host the Bills next week, an easier game, and one in which they’re expected to be favored. Favorites (like the Bears) are 98-167 ATS before being underdogs (as they will be next week) if their opponent will next be favorites (like the Redskins will be next week). I like the Redskins a good amount.

Chicago Bears 20 Washington Redskins 19

Pick against the spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Medium

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, Commanders, Cowboys, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (3-8) at Washington Redskins (5-6)

This line favored the Cowboys by 3 points last week in the early line, but now the Redskins are favored by 4. Obviously, Dallas’ loss of quarterback Tony Romo for the season was a big part of the line movement, and rightfully so, but I do think this line is a little high, especially considering about a quarter of games are decided by a field goal or less. This could still easily be a field goal game, despite Romo going down. The Cowboys got blown out at home by the Panthers last week (33-14), but there isn’t a ton of shame in that, even if the Cowboys did have Romo healthy for most of the game.

The Panthers are one of the best teams in the NFL and the game would have been a lot closer if the Cowboys didn’t lose the turnover margin by 3 and the return touchdown margin by 2. Those types of things are easy to clean up week-to-week and the 5 of the Cowboys’ 8 losses came by a touchdown or less. They’re also almost completely healthy other than Romo, as only two other players were listed on their injury report, both of whom are expected to play.

The Cowboys rank 19th in rate of moving the chains differential. They obviously move the chains better when Romo is out there, 72.80% in his 4 starts, as opposed to 70.23% in their other 7 games, but they haven’t been awful without him, despite their 0-7 record in those other 7 games. As I mentioned, most of their losses have been close. The Redskins, meanwhile, rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential. They beat the Giants as home underdogs in Washington by 6 last week, but the Giants were missing their top two offensive linemen.

I feel like that game, along with the Cowboys’ game from hell, are inflating this line. That’s certainly not a surprise. That tends to happen and is part of the reason why teams are 43-71 ATS off of a win as home underdogs, as the Redskins are here. The Cowboys are also 18-10 ATS as road underdogs since 2010. I’m expecting a field goal game or so, so I’m going with the Cowboys here, though I’m not confident enough to put money on them.

Washington Redskins 23 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas +4

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Giants at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Commanders, Giants, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

New York Giants (5-5) at Washington Redskins (4-6)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, the Giants have always been a very good road team in the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era, since 2004, going 60-39 ATS on the road over that time period, including 51-32 ATS as underdogs or favorites of 3 or fewer, as they are here (favorites of 3 points). On top of that, they’re coming off of a bye and road favorites of 3+ are 42-13 ATS coming off of a bye, including 22-5 ATS in a divisional matchup.

However, the Giants are also overrated. This line was a pick ‘em a week ago and has since jumped to a field goal, a significant line movement considering that close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. Despite that, the public is still all over the Giants. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because they always lose money in the long run and I love fading a significant line movement whenever it makes sense because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. By taking Washington here, I’d be able to do both.

The line moved as a result of the Redskins 44-16 loss in Carolina last week. That was bad and the Redskins aren’t a great team or anything, ranking 24th in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Giants rank 23rd, so they’re not any better. They’ve been able to go 5-5 despite that, because they’ve won the turnover battle by 13 on the season (best in the NFL), but turnovers are hard to rely on every week. The correlation between a team’s turnover margin in one game and its turnover margin in the next game is virtually non-existent. There’s a very good argument to be made that the Giants don’t deserve to be 3 point road favorites here (especially with Justin Pugh and Weston Richburg, two key offensive linemen out with injury), despite how good they typically are on the road, which would nullify the aforementioned trend about significant road favorites off of a bye. I’m still taking the Giants, but I’m not confident at all.

New York Giants 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -3

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Commanders, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (4-5) at Carolina Panthers (9-0)

The Panthers are one of the best teams in the NFL, ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains differential with an undefeated record, so it might be surprising that they’re only favored by 7.5 here. However, Washington is a solid opponent, ranking 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, and healthier than they’ve been all season, while Carolina is missing left guard Andrew Norwell and cornerback Charles Tillman. On top of that, the Panthers are in a terrible spot, going to Dallas in four days on Thanksgiving. Favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game.

Going off of that, because Tony Romo is now back for Dallas, the early line is even, meaning the Panthers could easily end up being underdogs. That would put the Panthers in another bad spot because favorites are just 95-168 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites (the Redskins host the Giants next week). Even if the Panthers don’t end up being underdogs, the logic still holds; The Panthers are in a bad spot with a tough road game coming up in 4 days. It’s not enough to take the Redskins with much confidence, but they should be the right side, as long as this line is a touchdown or higher.

Carolina Panthers 16 Washington Redskins 10

Pick against the spread: Washington +7.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New Orleans Saints at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Commanders, NFL Picks, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (4-5) at Washington Redskins (3-5)

Even at 36 years of age, Drew Brees is playing very well. He’s completing 69.6% of his passes for an average of 8.08 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, while leading an offense that ranks 4th in rate of moving the chains. Last year they ranked 2nd, but they’re obviously still a very good offense and this year they’re doing it with the likes of wide receiver Willie Snead (41/626/3) and tight end Ben Watson (43/532/3) playing huge roles in the passing game. Brees is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The defense remains weak and has had issues with injuries all year, but they rank 12th overall in rate of moving the chains differential.

However, the Redskins are a decent team, ranking 21st in rate of moving the chains differential and are finally healthy with the likes of cornerback Chris Culliver, cornerback DeAngelo Hall, and wide receiver DeSean Jackson all playing in this one. The Saints, meanwhile, could be missing talented left tackle Terron Armstead, in addition to more minor losses on the defensive side of the ball (linebacker Dannell Ellerbe, linebacker David Hawthorne, cornerback Damian Swann). It’s hard to back them to win straight up in Washington, so I’m going to fade the public and go with Washington, who also seems to be the sharps’ choice, but I have no confidence. I would need a field goal to take either side.

Washington Redskins 26 New Orleans Saints 24

Pick against the spread: Washington PK

Confidence: None

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Washington Redskins at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, Commanders, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (3-4) at New England Patriots (7-0)

The Patriots are one of four remaining undefeated 7-0 teams, along with Cincinnati, Denver, and Carolina. I don’t see that coming to an end this week, as they’re favored by two touchdowns. They go to New York to face the Giants after this one, a game in which they’re expected to be favored by 6.5 points on the road, according to the early line. Teams are 69-49 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point road favorites, 42-29 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites, and 28-13 ATS before being 7+ point road favorites, over that same time period. In addition, favorites of 6+ are 78-39 ATS before being favored by 6+ since 2012. Without any real distractions on the horizon, the Patriots have a good chance to win big and cover this big spread.

The Patriots should be the right side, but this line is too high for me to be too confident in them, especially with the public all over them. The Patriots are obviously a very good team, ranking 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Redskins aren’t awful, ranking 15th. They’re also way healthier than they have been really all season coming out of the bye. One of the most banged up teams in the league in the first half of the season, the Redskins get top wide receiver DeSean Jackson, slot cornerback DeAngelo Hall, starting center Kory Lichtensteiger, and possibly top cornerback Chris Culliver back this week and are close to full strength. The Patriots, meanwhile, are still without top pass rusher Jabaal Sheard and are down to their 4th offensive tackle, with both Nate Solder and backup Marcus Cannon out. This should be a blowout, but I can’t be confident in the 14.

New England Patriots 34 Washington Redskins 17

Pick against the spread: New England -14

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Commanders, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3) at Washington Redskins (2-4)

The Redskins are going into a bye here, but that’s not a good thing, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-20 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the Redskins are here do not. Teams who are favored by 1-5.5 points at home going into the bye are just 37-60 ATS over that aforementioned time period. Perhaps it’s that they get caught looking forward. That could easily happen to the Redskins here at home against the Buccaneers.

The Redskins are also pretty banged up right now, missing starting cornerbacks DeAngelo Hall and Chris Culliver and top wide receiver DeSean Jackson, but that’s nothing new for this team. Bashaud Breeland has played well as their top cornerback and their defensive front 7 has been great, as their defense has ranked 9th in rate of moving the chains allowed. Their offense has had problems without DeSean Jackson, ranking 26th in rate of moving the chains, but they still rank 16th overall in rate of moving the chains differential and their offense does get left tackle Trent Williams back this week. They really missed him in a road loss to the Jets last week. Prior to that, they almost beat the Falcons in Atlanta, losing on a pick six in overtime. They could have also beaten Miami if not for a return touchdown.

They’re way better than Tampa Bay, who has the 5th worst point differential in the NFL and who ranks 31st in rate of moving the chains differential. Even with that trend working against them and all their injuries and the Buccaneers relative lack of injuries (only defensive tackle Tony McDaniel), I still like the Redskins this week. There is too much of a talent disparity between these two teams for the Redskins to only be favored by 3.5 points at home. It’s not enough for me to put money on the Redskins, but they should be the right side.

Washington Redskins 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

Pick against the spread: Washington -3.5

Confidence: Low

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]