Commanders

Washington Redskins at New York Jets: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Commanders, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (2-3) at New York Jets (3-1)

The Jets have been pleasantly surprising to start the season. They beat Cleveland, Indianapolis, and Miami pretty convincingly, though they did lose at home to the Eagles. Still, a 3-1 record with impressive victories is a pleasant surprise for a team that wasn’t expected to do much this season. Ryan Fitzpatrick has bounced back well from a broken leg that ended his 2014 season and has continued his surprisingly solid play from 2013 and 2014 in Tennessee and Houston, giving the Jets arguably the best quarterback they’ve had since Chad Pennington. Wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker give him a pair of solid targets to throw to and running back Chris Ivory has broken out as a legitimate feature back. Meanwhile, a veteran offensive line has rolled back the clock a little bit and played very well.

Defensively, new head coach Todd Bowles has improved a defense that was already pretty solid to begin with, in large part due to big contributions from free agent acquisition cornerback Darrelle Revis and first round pick defensive end Leonard Williams. The Jets also get defensive end Sheldon Richardson, one of the best defensive players in the game in 2013 and 2014, back from a 4 game suspension this week, though it’s unclear how they’ll split up playing time between all their talented defensive linemen. Williams has played too well in Richardson’s absence to be a mere backup, but Muhammad Wilkerson is still dominant on the other side, while nose tackle Damon Harrison is equally established inside at nose tackle. It’s a good problem to have, but one the Jets will still have to manage properly. Overall, the Jets rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential. It’d still be hard to argue that they’re a top-4 team or anything like that, but they’re definitely a playoff contender and it’s clear that they’re here to stay as a threat.

The Redskins, however, have also been equally surprisingly good, but you can’t really tell by their record, as they stand at 2-3. Still, they’ve been St. Louis pretty easily and also beat Philadelphia, while two of their losses were a return touchdown away from being completely different games, including a game in Atlanta last week where they took the then undefeated Falcons to overtime, only to lose on a pick six. A loss in New York to the Giants by 11 on a short week has been their only bad loss to date. Kirk Cousins hasn’t been great or anything, but he’s been serviceable, even with wide receiver DeSean Jackson going down with a severe hamstring injury week 1. Jackson could be back this week, but, just as he’s getting healthy, tight end Jordan Reed, such a big part of their offense with Jackson out, will miss his 2nd straight game with a concussion this week and is out indefinitely. On top of that, stud left tackle Trent Williams has been ruled out for this one.

The defense is where the Redskins have made their biggest improvement, despite starting cornerbacks DeAngelo Hall and Chris Culliver missing time with injury. Both will once again be out this week. New defensive coordinator Joe Barry has done a good job, 2nd year cornerback Bashaud Breeland has been massively improved and been a huge asset with injuries at that position, while the front 7 is dominant, led by budding superstar Ryan Kerrigan, along with talented 2nd year player Trent Murphy, veteran holdovers Jason Hatcher and Chris Baker, and free agent acquisitions Stephen Paea, Terrance Knighton, and Ricky Jean Francois. Despite injuries, they rank 8th in rate of moving the chains allowed, significantly improved from last season. Their defense has been able to cover for a lackluster offense and they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential as a result. Like the Jets, it’s hard to argue that they’re actually as good as how they rank in that statistic, but, like the Jets, I think it’s clear that they’re here to stay as a threat.

The Redskins are also in a way better spot, as they have arguably the easiest game of their season, a home game against Tampa Bay, on deck, while the Jets have arguably their toughest game on deck, a trip to New England. The Jets will be rested off of a bye, which helps, but I think we’re going to have two different levels of focus for this game and history supports that theory. Underdogs are 112-68 ATS since 2010 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, while 6+ point favorites like the Jets are here are 48-83 ATS since 2002 before being 6+ point underdogs (the Jets are currently -9.5 in New England in the early line).

The Redskins are “only” 5 point favorites at home for Tampa Bay next week, but that could easily move to 6, while the Jets’ line could easily move to 10. If that happens, that opens up even more powerful trends. Teams are just 51-90 ATS before being 10+ point underdogs since 2010, while that 6 and 6 trend I mentioned earlier works the other way too. Teams are 69-57 ATS since 2002 as 6+ point underdogs before being 6+ point favorites, including 12-5 ATS since 1989 when their opponent will next be 6+ point underdogs. Even if those lines don’t move a little bit, the logic behind those trends still holds. This is one of the worst spots a team can be in.

Some might think it’ll be tough for the Redskins to bounce back off of a road overtime loss, that aforementioned game in Atlanta last week, and ordinarily that would be true, but it really helps that the Redskins are in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 119-85 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 97-58 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 200-207 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.43 points per game, as opposed to 293-404 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.95 points per game. That should nullify any effect of the Redskins’ overtime road loss last week, as teams are 18-17 ATS as road underdogs off of a road loss in overtime since 1989, as long as it’s their 2nd of two road games,.

The Redskins’ injuries caused me to switch this from being my Pick of the Week, but I still think they’re the right side for a high confidence pick. They’re banged up and clearly the less talented of these two teams going into this one, but they’re in by far the better spot and they have a touchdown of buffer room to work with as 7 point underdogs. Especially with the public taking the Jets pretty decisively, I’m confident in the Redskins to cover this week.

New York Jets 20 Washington Redskins 19

Pick against the spread: Washington +7

Confidence: High

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Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, Commanders, Falcons, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (4-0)

The Falcons are a surprising 4-0, one of 6 undefeated teams left in the NFL. However, when you look at the teams they’ve played, it’s not that surprising. They’ve played Philadelphia, the NY Giants (both of whom they barely beat), Dallas (without Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, Greg Hardy, Randy Gregory, George Selvie, Rolando McClain, among others), and Houston. Despite that, they rank just 4th out of the 6 remaining undefeated teams in terms of rate of moving the chains.

Their offense has been great, with the offensive line playing much better than they have in recent years and, largely as a result of that, 2nd year running back Devonta Freeman has broken out and given them the complement to their strong passing game that they’ve lacked for a while. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains, but their defense is still a huge problem, as they rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains allowed. They rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential as a result.

That’s definitely not bad, but it means they’re not quite as good as their record would suggest, especially when you take into account their weak schedule. The Redskins, meanwhile, are better than their 2-2 record suggests, as they rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential. They haven’t exactly played a tough schedule either (Miami, St. Louis, NY Giants, Philadelphia) and I’m not sold and them as a top team or anything yet, after they finished 25th in rate of moving the chains differential last season, but I’m not sold on the Falcons being a top team yet either, after they finished last season 23rd in rate of moving the chains differential, and I think the Redskins might be the toughest opponent the Falcons have faced thus far this season.

The Redskins’ offense still has problems and they’re missing key players on both sides of the ball (wide receiver DeSean Jackson, cornerback DeAngelo Hall, cornerback Chris Culliver, and tight end Jordan Reed), but their defense has played very well, ranking 5th in rate of moving the chains allowed. The Redskins spent a lot of money trying to fix their defense this off-season and it seems to have worked, as has the switch from Jim Haslett to Joe Barry as the defensive coordinator. This line is way too high at 7.5.

The Falcons are also in a bad spot, with a trip to New Orleans on Thursday Night Football on deck. Favorites are 41-64 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008, as having a game upcoming in a few days can make it hard for a favorite to focus 100%. The Redskins aren’t in a good spot either, with a trip to the Jets on deck (where they are expected to be 6 point underdogs). Underdogs of 6 or more are 71-95 ATS since 2010 before being underdogs of 6 or more. However, like I said, the Redskins don’t deserve to be underdogs of this many points here and, if they play well this week, they could easily be underdogs of fewer than 6 next week. They’re an underrated team who should cover this spread.

Atlanta Falcons 23 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: Washington +7.5

Confidence: Medium

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Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 4 NFL Picks, Commanders, Eagles, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Washington Redskins (1-2)

Despite being without running back DeMarco Murray, middle linebacker Mychal Kendricks, middle linebacker Kiko Alonso, and defensive end Cedric Thornton, 4 above average starters, the Eagles were able to upset the Jets in New York as 3.5 point underdogs last week. This week, they get Kendricks and Murray back, but I don’t love the Eagles chances of pulling off another win for a number of reasons, this time in Washington as 3 point favorites.

For one, the Eagles are still banged up. Alonso and Thornton might not have been missed too much last week and Murray and Alonso might be back, but it’s still not good to be missing two talented starters from your defense. You’re not guaranteed to be able to overcome that every week just because you were able to do so one time, as the Eagles did last week. The Eagles were also really reliant on turnovers and a return touchdown last week, things that are hard to rely on every week, winning the turnover battle by 3 and returning a punt for a touchdown in the 7 point win. Teams that have a turnover margin of 3+ have a turnover margin on average of +0.1 the following week. The Redskins have injury issues too, missing wide receiver DeSean Jackson, cornerback DeAngelo Hall, and middle linebacker Perry Riley, and possibly cornerback Chris Culliver, but I still think the Eagles are missing more.

The Eagles are also in a bad spot, as a result of last week’s win, as favorites are just 4-19 ATS since 1989 during week 4 after winning their first game of the season in week 3. Despite that and the fact that they probably aren’t quite deserving of being field goal favorites here in Washington, where the Redskins have played decently this season, the public is still all over the Eagles, as Philadelphia is one of the most heavily bet sides of the week. I like fading the public whenever it makes sense and I think it does here. I wouldn’t put money on the Redskins, unless we were getting 3.5 or 4 points and even then I still maybe wouldn’t, but they should be the right side. The only reason I wouldn’t put money on the Redskins, besides their injuries, is because they have the harder game next week, going to Atlanta, while Philadelphia just hosts the Saints, but it’s still enough to scare me off.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Redskins 23

Pick against the spread: Washington +3

Confidence: Low

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Washington Redskins at New York Giants: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, Commanders, Giants, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (1-1) at New York Giants (0-2)

The Redskins entered the season as a laughing stock. Now some are predicting they’ll win the NFC East. How did that happen? Well, the Redskins have played better than people have expected through two games, beating the Rams week 2 and almost beating the Dolphins week 1. Both of those games were at home, but the Redskins were home underdogs in both games, so they weren’t games they were expected to win. They’ve also ranked 8th in rate of moving the chains differential through 2 weeks.

The Redskins’ offense has remained a problem, particularly with DeSean Jackson out, but their defense does look legitimately much improved from a year ago. They were one of the worst defenses in the league last year, 24th in rate of moving the chains allowed, but they rank 6th through 2 games this season. I know it’s only two games, but they added guys like Terrance Knighton, Stephen Paea, Chris Culliver, and Ricky Jean-Francois in free agency this off-season. That’s made a huge difference and it’s something that I think they can maintain.

The other reason some think they can win the NFC East is simply what’s happened to the rest of the division. The only other team in the division that has even won a game is Dallas and they’ll be without both Tony Romo and Dez Bryant with injury for the foreseeable future, perhaps until December, drastically lessening their chances of being a good team this year. I still think both Dallas and Philadelphia are in better position to win the division than Washington. Philadelphia could be 1-1 if Cody Parkey hits a makeable go ahead field goal in Atlanta and then we wouldn’t really be taking about them as a non-contender, while Dallas still has good parts and technically has a 3 game lead over Philadelphia for the division, thanks to the head-to-head victory. Washington will make noise, but I still think Dallas and Philadelphia will finish higher than them.

I don’t think New York will though, as they’ve looked legitimately bad through 2 games. Yeah, they could have won both games, letting up game winning drives late in both of them, but they are currently 30th in rate of moving the chains differential. I know it’s only been two games, but they haven’t been good over the last 2 years either, thanks to injuries, and the injury bug has continued to bite them this season. Jason Pierre-Paul, William Beatty, and Victor Cruz are all out for this one again.

Middle linebacker Jon Beason returns and he’ll be a huge upgrade over Uani’ Unga, who has been Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked middle linebacker through 2 games in Beason’s absence, but Beason isn’t a very good player either at this stage of his career, after all of those injuries, so he won’t exactly be a savior. The Giants are also expected to be without rookie left tackle Ereck Flowers for this one, meaning they’ll be missing both of their intended starting offensive tackles. On top of that, Robert Ayers, arguably their best defensive player through 2 games and the saving grace of this pass rush with JPP out, will be a game time decision for this game with a hamstring problem.

In spite of that, the Giants are favored by 3.5 points here at home, suggesting that they are the better of the two teams. I obviously disagree with that. The Giants also have never really had a very good homefield advantage, at least not since 2004, the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era.  They are 51-42 (44-49 ATS) at home over that time period, outscoring opponents by an average of 2.55 points per game, as opposed to 53-43 (58-38 ATS) on the road over that time period, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game.

With a slightly superior team in town and minimal homefield advantage, the Giants should only be favored by like a point, if that. On top of that, the Redskins are in a good spot having their first road game of the year week 3. This is the first time they’ve had to travel for a real game since last December and typically teams are more rested than their opponents and do well in that spot, going 40-26 ATS since 1989. The public is on the Giants, but the line has dropped from 4 to 3.5, which suggests sharp action on Washington. That could drop this line to a field goal or lower by game time, so lock in 3.5 while you have a chance. The Redskins should be the right side this week.

Washington Redskins 20 New York Giants 19 Upset Pick +160

Pick against the spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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St. Louis Rams at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 2 NFL Picks, Commanders, NFL Picks, Rams, Uncategorized

St. Louis Rams (1-0) at Washington Redskins (0-1)

Last week, the Redskins were 3.5 point home underdogs for the Miami Dolphins and ended up losing 17-10. This week, they are 3.5 point home underdogs again, but to a team that I think is significantly inferior to the Miami Dolphins, the St. Louis Rams. The Rams had an impressive performance last week in a 34-31 overtime win over the Seahawks, but they likely just caught the Seahawks off guard, especially since they were missing safety Kam Chancellor. The Seahawks were on the road, where they haven’t been as good as they’ve been at home and the team that lost the Super Bowl the previous year is notoriously bad week 1. It was only a 3 point upset, but everyone is acting like it was so much more than that.

The Rams upgraded the quarterback position this off-season by bringing in Nick Foles, arguably the best quarterback they’ve had since Marc Bulger, and they have arguably the best defensive line in football, but their offensive talent around Foles is limited, especially without wide receiver Brian Quick and running back Todd Gurley, who are expected out again this week, and their defensive back 7 has plenty of issues, especially with cornerback EJ Gaines out for the season with a foot injury. The Redskins have their own injury issues with top receiver DeSean Jackson out with a hamstring problem and quarterback Kirk Cousins might be the worst starting quarterback in the NFL, but they’ve drastically improved one of the worst defenses in the league this off-season with the additions of Chris Culliver, Stephen Paea, and Terrance Knighton. They don’t deserve to be 3.5 point underdogs here. That means they would be 9.5 point underdogs in St. Louis, which I don’t think makes sense.

The Rams’ victory last week pushed this line from 2.5 to 3.5, over the key number of 3, and yet the public continues to be all over the Rams. I love betting against huge public leans whenever it makes sense because the public always loses money in the long run. In this case, I think the public is overreacting to one week and underestimating homefield advantage. The Rams could also be flat off of such a big, emotional victory. Teams are 1-10 ATS since 1989 as favorites off of an overtime win as home underdogs. I know it’s a small sample size, but it makes sense and it’s worth noting. It’s hard to be confident in the Redskins with Cousins under center and Jackson out, but they should be the right side here.

St. Louis Rams 17 Washington Redskins 16

Pick against the spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Miami Dolphins at Washington Redskins: 2015 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 1 NFL Picks, Commanders, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (0-0) at Washington Redskins (0-0)

I hate making big plays on road favorites that are heavily backed by the public. Those always scream “trap game” to me. Whenever the public is heavily on a road favorite it’s usually for the wrong reason. That reason is that the lines can seem to be too low because homefield advantage is underestimated. Usually teams do about 6 points better at home than on the road, so, for example, when Green Bay is -7 in Chicago this week, that means they’d be -13 at home. People don’t understand that and jump on the 7 (the same thing is happening with Seattle -4 in St. Louis).

However, I’m going with the public on this one. I think the Dolphins are way better than most people realize and should have no problem beating the hapless Redskins by 4, if not a touchdown here to start the season. The Dolphins were arguably the best non-playoff team last season, finishing 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, and they should be even better this season. Now they’ve remade their receiving corps, gotten healthier on the offensive line, and added Ndamukong Suh on the defense. I have them winning the AFC East in a close fight over the Patriots and it’s not inconceivable they could be a top-5 team.

The Redskins are more talented this season too, adding Chris Culliver, Stephen Paea, and Terrence Knighton, but they have arguably the worst quarterback situation in the NFL. They’ve bungled the Robert Griffin situation so much that they’re now starting backup caliber quarterback Kirk Cousins, who has completed 59.0% of his passes for an average of 7.45 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions in his career. The Dolphins should defeat them pretty easily. Go with the public on this one. They’re right, but for the wrong reason.

Miami Dolphins 27 Washington Redskins 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against the spread: Miami -3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Washington Redskins 2015 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Season Previews, Commanders, Uncategorized

Quarterback

In 2012, the rookie year of Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin, and Russell Wilson, it was a legitimate debate which of the three was the best and a debate that Griffin often won. He won with the Offensive Rookie of the Year award voters, who gave him that award in 2012 ahead of Luck and Wilson. It all seemed well deserved, as he was Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked quarterback that year, and he seemed to have an incredible future ahead of him. Instead, while Luck and Wilson saw their careers progress, Griffin’s potential came to a screeching halt, as he’s had a pretty bad past two seasons.

It all started with an ACL tear suffered in a playoff loss to the Seahawks to end the 2012 season. Griffin made it back for week 1 in 2013, but he wasn’t the same, completing 60.1% of his passes for an average of 7.02 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, while grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 26th ranked quarterback out of 42 eligible. His rushing totals fell from 815 yards and 7 touchdowns on 120 carries in 2012 (6.79 YPC) to 489 yards and 0 touchdowns on 86 carries in 2013 (5.69 YPC). He missed the final 3 games of the season, in part to rest his knee with the season essentially over, in part because the organization wanted to get a better look at backup Kirk Cousins.

Griffin’s 2014 should have been better, but he didn’t bounce back. Excuses can be made. He suffered another injury, dislocating his ankle in week 2. He was never a good fit for new head coach Jay Gruden’s offense and Gruden never gave him a fair chance and refused to tweak his offense for him. It was evident all season long that Gruden never really thought much of the quarterback he inherited, even leaving him on the bench when healthy upon return from injury for a little bit to test out other quarterbacks.

Griffin enters 2015 as the starter, if only for lack of a better option, as only Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy return as alternatives again. However, Griffin is still an injury prone quarterback who hasn’t produced good tape since 2012 (the last time he graded out above average on Pro Football Focus) and who isn’t a great system fit for his head coach’s quick drop back, quick throw offense. If he plays like he did last season, when he graded out 33rd out of 39 eligible quarterbacks, the Redskins could pull the plug on him for good. They picked up his 5th year option for 2016, but that’s guaranteed for injury only, so if he can’t prove he’s worth that 16.2 million, the Redskins won’t give it to him. Griffin is likely playing for his next contract this season, but it’s unlikely that contract comes from Washington.

As I mentioned, the other Redskin quarterbacks, Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy, are not better alternatives. Cousins is a 2012 4th round pick who has played horribly over the past 2 seasons since flashing in limited action as a rookie. He’s completed 59.0% of his passes for an average of 7.45 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions in his career. McCoy, meanwhile, is a 2010 3rd round pick and is on his 3rd NFL team already, bouncing from Cleveland to San Francisco to Washington. He drew a few starts last season, but once again showed what’s been clear for his whole career, that he isn’t anything more than an NFL backup. He’s completed 60.3% of his passes for an average of 6.57 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions in the NFL. The Redskins better hope Griffin can flash his rookie year form, otherwise they’ll be in trouble this season. Gruden would be wise to study Griffin’s 2012 tape to figure out how he can tweak his offense to best fit his skill set.

Grade: C

Running Backs

One of the side effects of Robert Griffin’s diminished performance over the past two years has been the decreased productivity of the running game as a result. And I’m not just referring to Griffin’s own decreased rushing productivity. When Griffin was at his best in 2012, he was a dual threat that forced opponents’ defenses to stay honest with both his arm and his ability to take off and run. That made life easier for starting running back Alfred Morris. Over the past two years, however, Morris has seen his YPC drop from 4.81 in 2012 to 4.62 in 2013 to 4.05 last season. Morris’ YPC particularly dropped from 2013 to 2014 for two reasons. One was that his run blocking was much worse than it was in his first 2 seasons in the NFL. The second was that Morris really missed the Shanahan and Son zone blocking scheme that always gets the most out of running backs and offensive linemen. The latter is likely related to the former as well.

There are a lot of good things about Morris. His career YPC of 4.52 is solid and he’s graded out above average in pure running grade in 2 of 3 seasons in the league, with the exception of last season, when he only graded out slightly below average in that aspect. He also hasn’t missed a game in 3 seasons in the league and his 876 carries over the past 3 seasons is 2nd in the NFL over that time period behind only Marshawn Lynch. He’s been an absolute steal since the Redskins drafted him in the 6th round in 2012. However, he’s not a great fit for Jay Gruden’s system and he’s a poor pass catcher, grading out below average in that aspect in each of his first 3 seasons in the league and totaling just 37 catches in 48 games over that time period.

The Redskins drafted Matt Jones in the 3rd round of the draft and have been heaping praise on him this off-season, some of which I’m sure is deserved. Jones is unlikely to cut much into Morris’ workload as a runner this season, but he’ll play a significant role on passing downs like Roy Helu did last season. Helu had 42 catches and 40 carries in 2014 and Jones could easily surpass both of those and push Morris below his career low of 265 carries. Jones is also likely seen as the feature back of the future, which means that, like fellow Shanahan draft pick Robert Griffin, Morris is auditioning for a new contract that will likely come from another team in the final year of his rookie deal this year.

Grade: B

Offensive Line

As I mentioned, the Redskins’ offensive line struggled in their first season with Jay Gruden as the head coach and the Shanahan and Son zone blocking scheme gone. They went from grading out 4th in team pass protection grade and 9th in team run blocking grade in 2013 to 10th and 24th in 2014. The biggest issue was at right tackle, where Tyler Polumbus went from Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked offensive tackle in 2013 in 16 starts to 62nd out of 84 eligible in 7 starts in 2014. Tom Compton also saw significant playing time at right tackle and graded out 68th out of 84 eligible offensive tackles. Seeing the position as a big need, the Redskins drafted Brandon Scherff with the 5th overall pick in the draft. He’ll be an immediate upgrade, but the Redskins definitely reached for him that early. He did not grade out like a top-5 pick on College Football Focus and was seen as one of the biggest reaches in the draft by them.

The other big difference from the 2013 offensive line to the 2014 offensive line, aside from the significant decline in performance at right tackle, was the addition of Shawn Lauvao in free agency. Handpicked by Jay Gruden as a strong fit for his blocking scheme, Lauvao was given a 4-year, 17 million dollar deal in free agency last off-season. He made 15 starts at left guard, but graded out below average overall, no surprise considering he’s never graded out above average in his career, dating back to his rookie year in 2010. The former 3rd round pick has 59 career starts, but has never been much better than a borderline starter.

Lauvao’s arrival pushed Kory Lichtensteiger from left guard in 2013 to center in 2014. Litchtensteiger played well at center, grading out 9th among centers last season, but Will Montgomery, their 2013 center, already was a solid starter, grading out 15th among centers in 2013 and then continuing to play well in his next stop in Denver in 2014. He just wasn’t a good fit for Gruden’s new offensive system so he was released. Lichtensteiger should continue to play well in 2015, having graded out above average in 3 of the last 4 seasons, both at center and guard, but there’s no denying that the Montgomery for Lauvao swap upfront hurt this offensive line.

Speaking of guys who were released for not being a good fit for the offense, Chris Chester was let go this off-season, despite grading out above average last season. He was going into his age 32 season and was owed 4 million non-guaranteed, but it’s rare that teams just cut functioning starters unless they’re really overpaid. Spencer Long, more in the mold of what Gruden looks for in an offensive lineman, will take over, despite playing just 18 snaps as a 3rd round rookie in 2014. He’s completely unproven and 3rd round picks more often than not never develop into solid starters, so I don’t have a lot of hope for him.

The only constant on the offensive line from 2013 to 2014 was that Trent Williams remained by far their best offensive lineman, regardless of scheme. He didn’t grade out #1 among offensive tackles again in 2014 like he did in 2013, but very few players are able to repeat that kind of season. Williams still graded out 18th at his position, despite dealing with some nagging injuries in the 2nd half of the season, making it 3 straight years that he’s graded out top-18 at his position. Only Joe Thomas, Andrew Whitworth, and Joe Staley can also say that. Only going into his age 27 season, Williams should be dominant once again in 2015. The Redskins hope to lock him up long-term ahead next off-season, when he’ll hit free agency. He makes the offensive line a look a lot better, but they still have a lot of problems.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

One player who saw a big decrease in production from 2013 to 2014 was Pierre Garcon, who had a 113/1346/5 slash line in 2013 and only a 68/752/3 slash line in 2014. Garcon averaged 2.38 yards per route run in his first 2 seasons in Washington in 2012 and 2013 combined, including a 2012 season where he missed 6 games with injury and was limited in several others. That number fell to 1.37 in 2014. However, that wasn’t totally his fault as the addition of DeSean Jackson opposite him took away lot of his targets, as he went from 174 in 2013 (2nd among wide receivers) to 99 in 2014 (38th among wide receivers). He was targeted on 28.6% of routes run in 2012-2013, but that fell to 18.1% in 2014 upon Jackson’s arrival.

The Redskins have spoken on several occasions about how they need to get Garcon the ball more in 2015, but the 2008 undrafted free agent has never graded out above average in his career outside of 2012 and 2013 and maxed out at 25th among wide receivers in his best NFL season (2013), so maybe that’s not the best idea. He’s purely a volume receiver and not one who can take the top off of the defense or gain a lot of yards after the catch. Jackson, who graded out 23rd among wide receivers in pass catching grade last season, is the better receiver.

Jackson put up good numbers last season, catching 56 passes for 1169 yards and 6 touchdowns, though he could see fewer targets in 2014 if the Redskins are serious about featuring Garcon more. That being said, Jackson only saw 87 targets in 2014 as strict deep threat so it wasn’t like the Redskins were forcing the ball to him on every play like they did with Garcon in 2013. He’s never been consistently as good as he was in 2013 with the Eagles, when he graded out 8th among wide receivers and caught 82 passes for 1332 yards and 9 touchdowns, but he’s graded out above average in 3 straight seasons and has surpassed 1000+ yards 4 times in 7 seasons in the league since being drafted in the 2nd round by the Eagles in 2008. His skill set and Garcon’s skill set complement each other well.

The problem is the Redskins’ receiving depth after Jackson and Garcon. Andre Roberts flopped in the first year of a 4-year, 16 million dollar deal last season, grading out 86th among 110 eligible (including 108th in pure pass catching grade) as the Redskins’ 3rd receiver. That shouldn’t have been a surprise as he’s never graded out above average once in his 5-year NFL career, since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2010 by the Cardinals. That includes a 2011 season in which he graded out 111th out of 115 eligible wide receivers and a 2012 season in which he graded out 102nd out of 105 eligible wide receivers. The contract that the Redskins gave him was a big mistake. They’ll hope that either Ryan Grant or Jamison Crowder can push him for snaps this season. The former is a 2014 5th round pick who struggled on 187 snaps as a rookie last year, while the latter is a 4th round rookie. Neither projects as much of an upgrade.

Niles Paul led all Redskin tight ends in snaps played last season with 585. One of Mike Shanahan’s pet projects was converting the big bodied collegiate receiver into a professional tight end, after the Redskins drafted Paul in the 5th round in 2011. Ironically, he didn’t post good receiving numbers until Shanahan left, as Paul had 14 catches for 228 yards and a touchdown in the first 3 seasons of his career combined, but had 39 catches for 507 yards and a touchdown last season. He graded out about average as a pass catcher on Pro Football Focus, but, as you’d expect from a 6-1 224 pound former wide receiver, Paul struggled mightily as a run blocker, grading out 62nd in that aspect among tight ends out of 67 eligible. That led to him grading out 59th out of 67 eligible overall. He’s never graded out above average in his career. The Redskins re-signed him to a 3-year, 6 million dollar deal this off-season, but they’d probably still prefer him to be a complementary piece more than a starting tight end.

In order for that to happen, Jordan Reed will have to stay healthy, something the 2013 3rd rounder has yet to do in his career, missing 12 games with injury over the past 2 seasons. He was dominant in limited action as a rookie, both as a pass catcher and a run blocker, grading out 7th among tight ends on 384 snaps, but took a step back in his 2nd year in the league, grading out slightly below average on 377 snaps. Only going into his age 25 season, there’s definitely upside here, but he remains tough to rely on.

Logan Paulsen is also in the mix at tight end, but he’s purely a blocker with 79 catches in 75 career games. Paulsen hasn’t graded out above average as a pass catcher since his rookie year in 2010 when he barely played, but the 6-5 264 pounder former undrafted free agent has graded out above average as a run blocker twice in the last 3 seasons. The Redskins really have to hope Reed can stay healthy to give them a 3rd option in the passing game.

Grade: B-

Defensive Line

The Redskins didn’t just have problems on offense last season, moving the chains at a 70.34% rate, 21st in the NFL. Their defense wasn’t good either, as they allowed opponents to move the chains at a 73.24% rate, 24th in the NFL, leading to a -2.90% differential that ranked 25th in the NFL. Unlike the offense, where they didn’t really do much this off-season, they made some significant additions to their defense in free agency. On the defensive line, those significant additions were Stephen Paea and Terrance Knighton, who got a 4-year, 21 million dollar deal and a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal respectively from the Redskins this off-season. Both were solid deals.

Paea comes over from Chicago, where he was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked defensive tackle in 2014. He’s a one-year wonder because he graded out below average in each of his first 3 seasons in the NFL from 2011-2013, after the Bears took him in the 2nd round in 2011, but he was a very solid value as a free agent and he has a good chance to have another strong year in 2015. He’ll move to defensive end in Washington’s 3-4. He wouldn’t seem to be a great scheme fit at 6-1 303, but he should be an immediate and noticeable upgrade over Jarvis Jenkins, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 45th ranked 3-4 defensive end out of 47 eligible last year. He’s gone as a free agent.

Knighton, meanwhile, will line up at nose tackle next to Paea. Knighton was one of the better defensive tackles in the NFL over the past 2 seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked defensive tackle in 2013 and their 12th ranked in 2014. I expected him to get a deal somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 million over 5 years, but he didn’t come close to that because of concerns about his weight. The big defensive tackle known as Pot Roast reportedly played around 330 last season, which seems to be a comfortable playing weight for him, given how well he played last season, but when a player is that big, there’s always a chance his weight gets out of control and it’s very possible that he’s gotten out of shape since the season ended.

That’s a very real concern, but this deal is still an absolute steal. Not only is it significantly less money annually that what I was expecting him to get, but there’s no risk beyond this season if he does show up to Training Camp overweight. On top of that, the fact that he could only get this type of deal could serve as a wakeup call for him and I like that he’s betting on himself with this type of deal. He’ll have every reason to remain motivated this season and that should translate to continued strong play. Even though he’s 330 pounds, he’s a decent pass rusher and has a good chance to stay on the field in some sub packages, meaning he won’t just be a pure base package, two-down run stopper.

At the other defensive end spot opposite Paea, Jason Hatcher, a free agent acquisition last off-season, will once again be the starter. Like Paea and Knighton, Hatcher was a great value on a 4-year, 27 million dollar deal last off-season. The 2006 3rd round pick has been a late bloomer, but has graded out above average in 6 straight seasons, including the last 4 as a starter. Over those past 4 seasons, he’s graded out 6th among 3-4 defensive ends (2011), 4th among 3-4 defensive ends (2012), 8th among defensive tackles (2013), and then 10th among 3-4 defensive ends last season, in his first year in Washington. He’s going into his age 33 season, which is a concern, but he could still have a strong season in 2015. He’s yet to really show any decline. He was the only Redskins’ defensive lineman to grade out above average last season, but he’ll have a lot more help this season.

Also coming in as a free agent is Ricky Jean-Francois, who the Redskins signed to a 3-year, 9 million dollar deal this off-season. He’ll provide valuable depth. In Ricky Jean-Francois’ first trip to the open market in two off-seasons ago, he was given a 4-year, 22 million dollar deal by the Colts, a very weird move considering RJF had played just 715 snaps in 4 season with the 49ers from 2009-2012, after they drafted him in the 7th round. He did flash, grading out above average in both 2010 and 2011, but he didn’t deserve that kind of deal then and it predictably didn’t end well. The Colts cut him this off-season after two seasons. He made 23 starts in 26 games with the Colts and graded out about average in both seasons, but the Colts didn’t see him as worth his salary for 2015. He’s a decent player though and one who is in a much more appropriate role at a much more appropriate salary now. The Redskins have turned this defensive line around in a hurry over the past 2 off-seasons.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Redskins did lose Brian Orakpo to free agency this off-season, as he signed with the Titans, but he missed 9 games with injury last season and graded out only 22nd among 3-4 outside linebackers as a result, so he won’t be missed too much. Trent Murphy, who played 595 snaps and made 8 starts in Orakpo’s absence as a 2nd round rookie in 2014, is a capable starter with upside. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 25th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker last season. The Redskins also drafted Preston Smith in the 2nd round this year and the rookie will see some action as a rotational reserve in 2015. Murphy is a better run stopper than pass rusher so, if Smith develops well as a rookie, he could steal sub package snaps from Murphy down the stretch.

Along with Murphy’s promising rookie year and Orakpo’s history of injuries, one of the major reasons why the Redskins were comfortable letting Orakpo go is Ryan Kerrigan, who has emerged as a strong edge rusher and 3-4 outside linebacker on the other side. Kerrigan will once again play every down in 2015 after playing 1000 snaps in 2014 (5th most at his position) and he is expected to be signed to a long-term extension this off-season, ahead of his contract year, with money that the Redskins saved by letting Orakpo go. Younger than Orakpo (going into his age 27 season, as opposed to age 29 for Orakpo) with no games missed in 4 years in the NFL, Kerrigan, a 2011 1st round pick, has graded out 19th, 7th, 26th, and 5th among 3-4 outside linebackers from 2011-2014 and deserves to be well paid going forward.

Things aren’t as good at middle linebacker. Keenan Robinson and Perry Riley were Pro Football Focus’ 44th and 48th ranked middle linebackers out of 60 eligible in 2014. Robinson is a 2012 4th round pick who had played 69 snaps in 2012 and 2013 combined before struggling as a starter last season, so he doesn’t profile as a long-term starter. Riley, a 2010 4th round pick, played well to start his career from 2010-2012, grading out above average in all 3 seasons, including as a 16-game starter in 2012, but he’s graded out well below average in each of the last 2 seasons so his stock is sinking. He’ll need to improve in 2015 if the Redskins are going to keep him at a non-guaranteed 4 million dollar salary for 2016, his age 30 season. Without much of an internal alternative for either Robinson or Perry, they’re stuck with both again this season. Middle linebacker is a weakness in an otherwise quietly strong front 7.

Grade: B-

Secondary

While things in the front 7 are solid, the Redskins’ secondary is still a mess. Things were so bad at cornerback last season that they desperately missed DeAngelo Hall, who missed 13 games with a torn Achilles. Hall isn’t great, but those 3 games he played were the only 3 games the Redskins had anyone resembling an NFL starting cornerback out there. David Amerson, Bashaud Breeland, and EJ Biggers were the Redskins top-3 cornerbacks last season in terms of snaps played and they finished 108th, 99th, and 102nd respectively out of 108 eligible cornerbacks on Pro Football Focus, meaning the Redskins regularly played 3 of the worst 10 cornerbacks in the NFL last season.

The Redskins did make a good move to fill a major need at the position by signing Chris Culliver, previously of the 49ers, to a 4-year, 32 million dollar deal this off-season. He was just a 3rd round pick of the 49ers in 2011, but he’s quietly one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL. He had a significant role from the word go in 2011, playing 425 snaps and then 691 in 2012, grading out above average in both seasons, including 29th at his position in 2012. He missed all of 2013 with a torn ACL, but he bounced back in a big way from that torn ACL in 2014 in his first full season as a starter, making 14 starts and grading out 14th at his position. On top of that, that 2013 ACL tear is really the only issue he’s had with injuries, missing a combined 2 games in his other 3 seasons as a pro. He’s easily the Redskins’ best defensive back.

That’s where the good news ends in the secondary for the Redskins. DeAngelo Hall will be the other starter likely. While he was their best cornerback last season, that was only by default as he still graded out below average. On top of that, he’s going into his age 32 season, coming off of a significant injury, and hasn’t graded out above average since 2010. The only reason he’s still on the roster at his non-guaranteed 4 million dollar salary is out of desperation. He’s a weak starter.

With EJ Biggers gone, Bashaud Breeland and David Amerson will compete for the #3 job. The organization seems to have soured on Amerson, a 2013 2nd round pick, and rightfully so, as he’s graded out 84th out of 110 eligible and 108th out of 108 eligible cornerbacks in the first 2 seasons of his career respectively. He’s unlikely to beat out Breeland and win this job. Breeland struggled as a 4th round rookie in 2014, grading out 99th out of 108 eligible, but the Redskins seem to think he can turn it around going forward. They don’t have much of a choice. They’re also probably hoping that Breeland can lock down a starting job, which would allow Hall to focus on the slot as the 3rd cornerback, but I think it’s more likely that Breeland starts the season as the 3rd cornerback, playing outside in sub packages only and moving Hall inside in sub packages.

As bad as things were at cornerback, things at safety might have equally bad. Brandon Meriweather and Ryan Clark were the starters last season and they graded out 60th and 87th out of 87 eligible safeties respectively. Neither one returns to the Redskins in 2015, with the former still available as a free agent going into his age 32 season and the latter retiring ahead of his age 36 season. However, that doesn’t mean that their safety play will be much better this season.

Dashon Goldson was acquired to be one starter, coming over in a trade from Tampa Bay for a future late round pick. I’m shocked that the Buccaneers got anything for him, as he was heading into a year where he was owed 8 million, including 4 million guaranteed. The Buccaneers signed Goldson to a 5-year, 41.25 million dollar contract 2 off-seasons ago and he proceeded to be one of the worst safeties in the game over the past 2 seasons. Goldson was Pro Football Focus’ 81st ranked safety out of 86 eligible in 2013 and their 87th ranked safety out of 88 eligible in 2014. He was better before signing that deal, back when he was in San Francisco, grading out 20th in 2012, but that’s still one of only two seasons in his career that he’s graded out above average. Going into his age 31 season, I don’t think he’ll be very good this season. Even though the Buccaneers are paying the 4 million dollar guaranteed part of his salary, the Redskins still owe him 4 million this season if he’s on the roster and I don’t see him being worth that.

Jeron Johnson is expected to be the other starting safety, after the Redskins signed him to a 2-year, 4 million dollar deal this off-season. Johnson spent the first 4 seasons of his career in Seattle, stuck behind Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas. He never played more than 130 snaps in a season as a result and only made 1 start, but he graded out above average in 3 of 4 seasons. The 2011 undrafted free agent is still incredibly unproven and hard to trust, but new Redskins GM Scot McCloughan was in Seattle’s front office from 2011-2013 so maybe he knows something we don’t. More likely, Johnson is just the best of a bad group of options.

The Redskins also get Duke Ihenacho back from injury after he missed all but 5 snaps last season with a foot injury. He really struggled in his last significant action before the injury, grading out 72nd out of 86 eligible safeties in 2013 with the Broncos. He’s never graded out above average in his career since he went undrafted in 2012 and he’s not a legitimate starting option, even in this weak secondary. He’ll backup both Johnson and Goldson. Outside of Culliver, it’s a really thin secondary.

Grade: C

Conclusion

The Redskins struggled on both sides of the ball last season. I don’t see their offense being much better unless Robert Griffin can flash his 2012 form, unlikely considering his injury history and the fact that he’s not a good fit for the system. However, they did add some serious talent defensively this off-season, with guys like Stephen Paea, Terrance Knighton, and Chris Culliver coming in. Brian Orakpo was their only significant loss in free agency and he missed most of last season with injury anyway, so that loss should be able to be nullified by youngsters Trent Murphy and Preston Smith. The Redskins are unlikely to make the playoffs or climb out of the cellar of a strong NFC East, but they should win a few more games this season. As with all teams, I’ll have official win/loss records for the Redskins after I’ve done all team’s previews.

Prediction: 6-10 4th in NFC East

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers trade S Dashon Goldson to the Washington Redskins

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Buccaneers, Commanders, Uncategorized

Trade for Tampa Bay: Goldson topped my list of cap casualty candidates for the Buccaneers. In fact, I was confused why he wasn’t cut earlier in the off-season, a move that would have saved the Buccaneers 4 million in cash and cap space. The Buccaneers signed Goldson to a 5-year, 41.25 million dollar contract 2 off-seasons ago and he proceeded to be one of the worst safeties in the game over the past 2 seasons. Goldson was Pro Football Focus’ 81st ranked safety out of 86 eligible in 2013 and their 87th ranked safety out of 88 eligible in 2014. He was better before signing that deal, back when he was in San Francisco, grading out 20th in 2012, but that’s still one of only two seasons in his career that he’s graded out above average.

Turns out there was a reason why the Buccaneers didn’t cut him earlier in the off-season. They thought they could get something for him and it turns out they could have. The compensation they get in this trade, a swap of their 7th round pick in 2016 for a 6th round pick that same year, is miniscule, but I still credit them for getting something for a guy who should not be on anyone’s roster at a 4 million dollar salary (the Buccaneers will pay the guaranteed portion of his salary, 4 million, as the terms of this trade).

Grade: A

Trade for Washington: While I think this was a great move for the Buccaneers, I think it’s the exact opposite for the Redskins. The Redskins had a serious need at the safety position, but that doesn’t mean they have to go out and pay 4 million and give up something in next year’s draft for a year of Dashon Goldson (he’ll be owed 8 million non-guaranteed in 2016). If the Redskins had signed Goldson to a 1-year, 4 million dollar deal, I wouldn’t have given it a good grade either. This is the same thing. Goldson simply isn’t a starting caliber player in the NFL anymore, especially going into his age 31 season.

Grade: C-

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Washington Redskins sign CB Chris Culliver

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, Uncategorized

I thought Culliver was one of the underrated players in free agency and would be a good value signing. He was just a 3rd round pick of the 49ers in 2011, but he’s quietly one of the better cornerbacks in the NFL. He had a significant role from the word go in 2011, playing 425 snaps and then 691 in 2012, grading out above average in both seasons, including 29th at his position in 2012. He’s graded out above average in all 3 seasons he’s been healthy, missing all of 2013 with a torn ACL. However, he bounced back in a big way from that torn ACL in 2014 in his first full season as a starter, making 14 starts and grading out 14th at his position. On top of that, that 2013 ACL tear is really the only issue he’s had with injuries, missing a combined 2 games in his other 3 seasons as a pro.

Apparently his talent was not a secret around the league and he managed to sign a 4-year, 32 million dollar deal with the Redskins with 16 million guaranteed. It’s a lot more than I expected and it’s not a great value or anything, but I don’t think it’s a bad deal either, especially since the Redskins needed cornerback help more than many any team in the NFL. Culliver has shown well in every season he’s been healthy in the league. He doesn’t have much of an injury history outside that torn ACL, though it’s obviously concerning that he has that on his resume. He’s also gotten better every season he’s been healthy in the league, which suggests that he’s an ascending player, especially only going into his age 27 season. This deal isn’t bad.

Grade: B-

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Washington Redskins sign DT Terrance Knighton

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, Uncategorized

Terrance Knighton was one of the better defensive tackles in the NFL over the past 2 seasons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked defensive tackle in 2013 and their 12th ranked in 2014. I expected him to get a deal somewhere in the neighborhood of 40 million over 5 years, but he didn’t come close to that because of concerns about his weight. The big defensive tackle known as Pot Roast reportedly played around 330 last season, which seems to be a comfortable playing weight for him, given how well he played last season, but when a player is that big, there’s always a chance his weight gets out of control and it’s very possible that he’s gotten out of shape since the season ended.

That’s a very real concern, but this 1-year, 4 million dollar deal is still an absolute steal. Not only is it significantly less money annually that what I was expecting him to get, but there’s no risk beyond this season if he does show up to Training Camp overweight. On top of that, the fact that he could only get this type of deal could serve as a wakeup call for him and I like that he’s betting on himself with this type of deal. He’ll have every reason to remain motivated this season and that should translate to continued strong play. Knighton will play nose tackle in Washington’s 3-4 base and is a good enough pass rusher for his size that he can also stay on the field in sub packages and rush the passer. By adding Knighton, Stephen Paea, and Ricky Jean-Francois on cost effective deals this off-season, to go with Jason Hatcher, the Redskins have quietly built a solid defensive line.

Grade: A

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