Commanders

Washington Redskins Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Fantasy Football Team Previews, Commanders, Uncategorized

QB Robert Griffin (Washington)

As a rookie, Griffin completed 65.6% of his passes for an average of 8.14 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while rushing for 815 yards and 7 touchdowns on 120 carries (6.79 YPC). Last season, he completed 60.1% of his passes for an average of 7.02 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, while rushing for 489 yards and no touchdowns on 86 carries (5.69 YPC). This was all before being shut down for the season with 3 weeks to go. The good news is he should bounce back this season. Most of his struggles last season were the result of the torn ACL he suffered in January of 2013. He was able to make it back for week 1, but it clearly limited him. Even Tom Brady struggled, by his standards, in his first year back from his torn ACL and Griffin is much more reliant on his legs and had less time to recover (Brady’s injury was in September). He’s a great bounce back candidate.

3750 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 450 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns (289 pts standard)

RB Alfred Morris (Washington)

Morris rushed for 1613 yards and 13 touchdowns on 335 carries as a 6th round rookie in 2012, an average of 4.81 YPC. In 2013, he rushed for 1275 yards and 7 touchdowns on 276 carries, an average of 4.62 YPC. That’s obviously not a bad season, but he wasn’t as good as he was as a rookie. The good news is that he should find more running space with a healthy Robert Griffin functioning as a dual option at quarterback. The bad news is that Jay Gruden is coming in as head coach and wants to open up the passing offense. Morris has caught 20 passes in 2 seasons. Gruden is on record saying that he wants to give passing down back Roy Helu more snaps.

Last season, Helu played 547 snaps while Morris played 611 snaps. Morris will have a role similar to BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who had 472 snaps in Cincinnati, as opposed to 627 snaps for passing down back Giovani Bernard. BJGE still had 220 carries last season and Morris is much more talented than him, while Helu is not as talented as Bernard. It could be a more even split in snaps and Morris could still see 240-260 carries this season, including all the goal line carries, and average a high YPC, but Helu will have a bigger role than last season.

250 carries for 1180 yards, 10 total touchdowns, 15 catches for 100 yards (188 pts standard)

RB Roy Helu (Washington)

As I mentioned, Roy Helu should have a bigger role this season, both in terms of carries and catches. He’s only averaged 4.26 yards per carry in 3 seasons in the league, but he’s caught 87 passes for 675 yards and a touchdown. He won’t do a ton of damage as a runner, but he could catch 40-50 passes. He has more value in PPR leagues than regular leagues.

100 carries for 420 yards, 4 total touchdowns, 40 catches for 320 yards (98 pts standard)

WR Pierre Garcon (Washington)

Garcon missed 6 games and was limited in others in 2012, in the first year of a 5-year, 42.5 million dollar deal that was highly speculative when he signed it because he had never had a 1000 yard season in four years with the Colts, three with Peyton Manning. However, Garcon still flashed in 2012 on 403 snaps, grading out well above average and catching 44 passes for 633 yards and 4 touchdowns on 215 routes run, an average of 2.94 yards per route run that was 2nd best in the NFL. Given that he did that with a bad foot, it was very promising for 2013.

He wasn’t quite as efficient in 2013, but that’s to be expected considering he had significantly more playing time and his quarterback play was significantly worse. He was still really good, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 26th ranked wide receiver. He caught 113 catches on 174 targets (64.9%) for 1346 yards and 5 touchdowns on 615 routes run, an average of 2.19 yards per route run, 12th in the NFL. He was largely a volume receiver, catching primarily underneath targets, with only 25 catches 10+ yards downfield, and finishing 2nd in the NFL in targets. He won’t get as many targets this season with DeSean Jackson coming in and Jordan Reed back healthy, but he should have more room to work with and better quarterback play.

88 catches for 1090 yards and 5 touchdowns (139 pts standard)

WR DeSean Jackson (Washington)

DeSean Jackson had a career year last year, catching 82 passes for 1332 yards and 9 touchdowns, all either career highs or tying career highs. The Eagles still cut him though, in favor of re-signing Jeremy Maclin and Riley Cooper. He’s highly unlikely to match those numbers now that he’s out of Chip Kelly’s system. He could easily be 3rd on the Redskins in catches, serving primarily as a deep decoy while Pierre Garcon and Jordan Reed eat up underneath catches. Stay away for fantasy purposes.

60 catches for 960 yards and 6 touchdowns (132 pts standard)

TE Jordan Reed (Washington)

Reed, a 3rd round rookie last season, missed 7 games with concussions, but still caught 45 passes on 60 attempts (75.0%) for 499 yards and 4 touchdowns on 228 routes run, an average of 2.19 yards per route run, 3rd in the NFL. If he stays healthy, he could have a breakout year in 2014. He won’t get a ton of targets with Garcon and Jackson also on the team, but there will be plenty of room for him to work in and he should have quarterback play this season.

68 catches for 790 yards and 6 touchdowns (115 pts standard)

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Washington Redskins 2014 NFL Season Preview

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Season Previews, Commanders, Uncategorized

Quarterback

The Redskins declined significantly in 2013, going from 10-6 and in the playoffs to 3-13 and the 2nd worst team in the league last season. To make matters worse, they didn’t have their own first round pick this year, thanks to the RG3 trade made in 2012, so they don’t have the luxury of adding a top caliber talent to this team. Why did they decline last season? Well, teams that have big win total improvements, like the Redskins did in 2012, going from 5-11 to 10-6, tend to decline by an average of half that total. The Redskins obviously declined by more than that, but it’s just an average and it shows that teams that have big win improvements tend to do it on the backs of unsustainable things.

For the Redskins, that unsustainable thing was the turnover margin as they finished with a +16 turnover margin in 2012. That type of thing tends to be very tough to depend on. Teams with a turnover margin of +4 in a week on average have the same turnover margin the next week as a team that had a turnover margin of -4 the previous week, a turnover margin of about +0.0. Meanwhile, teams that have a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season see their turnover margins drop by an average of about 15.8 the following season, resulting in 2.32 fewer wins. Teams with a turnover margin of -15 or worse in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +2.04.

Meanwhile, teams with a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +3.42, a difference of about 1.38. If you’re using a team’s turnover margin from the previous season as a reason why they’re going to continue to struggle (or have success) the next season, it’s usually not going to work out well. It was unreasonable to expect RG3 to continue throwing an interception on just 1.3% of his throws. No quarterback has ever kept that up for a career (1.8% is the best all-time career interception rate). It was also unreasonable to expect the Redskins to continue recovering 67.39% of their fumbles, as that always tends to even out towards 50% in the long-run.

On top of that, RG3 declined significantly last season, and not just in terms of interceptions. As a rookie, he completed 65.6% of his passes for an average of 8.14 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions, while rushing for 815 yards and 7 touchdowns on 120 carries (6.79 YPC). Last season, he completed 60.1% of his passes for an average of 7.02 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, while rushing for 489 yards and no touchdowns on 86 carries (5.69 YPC). He went from Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked quarterback to their 26th.

He also was shut down for the final 3 games of the season and Kirk Cousins struggled mightily in his absence, completing 52.3% of his passes for an average of 5.51 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions, effectively killing any trade value he might have had. Even in the 13 games when RG3 played, the Redskins moved the chains at a 71.73% rate, which would have been 17th in the NFL over a full season. That simply wasn’t good enough as their defense was horrific, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 74.56% rate, 24th in the NFL.

The good news is he should bounce back this season. Most of his struggles last season were the result of the torn ACL he suffered in January of 2013. He was able to make it back for week 1, but it clearly limited him. Even Tom Brady struggled, by his standards, in his first year back from his torn ACL and Griffin is much more reliant on his legs and had less time to recover (Brady’s injury was in September). Griffin won’t match his insanely low interception rate from his rookie year, but he should be noticeably improved over last season, both running and throwing the ball.

Griffin is still a special talent when healthy and will prove to be worth what the Redskins gave up for him over the long-term. The wild card for Griffin and the rest of this offense is that offensive minded head coach Mike Shanahan was fired and replaced with former Cincinnati offensive coordinator Jay Gruden. Shanahan is a two-time Super Bowl winning head coach and his system worked masterfully in 2012, but it didn’t work nearly as well in 2013 and he’s coached some other poor offenses in the past. Gruden, meanwhile, is an unknown as a head coach. We’ll see how he and his new offensive scheme affect this offense.

Grade: B+

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

While the Redskins did have a hobbled Griffin for 13 games last season and then they lost him for 3 games, they, overall, didn’t have a lot of injuries, as they finished 4th in adjusted games lost. Griffin should be healthier this season, but they will have more injuries around him, which is why I don’t totally buy that this team, overall, has the talent to get back into the playoffs. One player who missed a significant amount of time with injury in 2012 who stayed on the field in 2013 was wide receiver Pierre Garcon.

Garcon missed 6 games and was limited in others in 2012, in the first year of a 5-year, 42.5 million dollar deal that was highly speculative when he signed it because he had never had a 1000 yard season in four years with the Colts, three with Peyton Manning. However, Garcon still flashed in 2012 on 403 snaps, grading out well above average and catching 44 passes for 633 yards and 4 touchdowns on 215 routes run, an average of 2.94 yards per route run that was 2nd best in the NFL. Given that he did that with a bad foot, it was very promising for 2013.

He wasn’t quite as efficient in 2013, but that’s to be expected considering he had significantly more playing time and his quarterback play was significantly worse. He was still really good, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 26th ranked wide receiver. He caught 113 catches on 174 targets (64.9%) for 1346 yards and 5 touchdowns on 615 routes run, an average of 2.19 yards per route run, 12th in the NFL. He was largely a volume receiver, catching primarily underneath targets, with only 25 catches 10+ yards downfield, and finishing 2nd in the NFL in targets, so he wasn’t quite as good as his numbers suggested. However, he should be even more efficient this season as a possession receiver with a healthy Griffin and DeSean Jackson coming in to take some of the defense’s attention off of him and open up the short-to-intermediate part of the field.

As I just mentioned, to help Robert Griffin bounce back, the Redskins signed DeSean Jackson, after the Eagles cut him. There were rumors that the Eagles cut him because of gang ties, but more likely, they cut him because they just didn’t feel he was worth his 10.7 million dollar salary, even coming off of the best season of his career. Jackson was Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked wide receiver last season, catching 82 passes for 1332 yards and 9 touchdowns, all either career highs or tying career highs. He caught 68.9% of his targets and averaged 2.45 yards per route run, 6th in the NFL.

However, the Eagles still cut him because they felt he was largely a product of Chip Kelly’s system, because of his inconsistent past, and because of his salary. The Redskins are paying him less money, 24 million over 3 years, so it’s not a bad value, but expecting him to be the player he was last season is a little short-sighted. From his rookie year in 2008 to 2012, Jackson maxed out as Pro Football Focus’ 34th ranked wide receiver. He’s not historically nearly as efficient as he showed himself to be last season. He could have another strong year, but I doubt he reaches last year’s numbers.

While the Redskins didn’t have a lot of injuries last season, one player who did miss a significant period of time that really hurt them was Jordan Reed. Reed, a 3rd round rookie last season, missed 7 games with concussions, but still graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked tight end last season despite playing just 384 snaps. He was very well-rounded too, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked pass catching tight end and 13th ranked run blocking tight end.

Reed caught 45 passes on 60 attempts (75.0%) for 499 yards and 4 touchdowns on 228 routes run, an average of 2.19 yards per route run, 3rd in the NFL. If he stays healthy, he could have a breakout year in 2014. He probably won’t be as efficient as he was last season with more snaps, but he’ll have better quarterback play. He won’t be targeted as often with Jackson coming in, but he’ll have more room to operate in with Jackson downfield taking the defense’s attention off of the short-to-intermediate part of the field. Assuming the trio of Jackson, Garcon, and Reed stays healthy (as is the case with any player), they could be one of the best trios of pass catchers in the NFL.

After that trio, the Redskins have experienced depth in the receiving corps, but the talent isn’t really there. At wide receiver, they signed Andre Roberts to a 4-year deal worth 16 million this off-season. He’ll line up as their primary slot receiver this season. The Redskins really struggled for depth at wide receiver last season, as, other than Pierre Garcon, no wide receiver graded out above average on Pro Football Focus. Santana Moss was Pro Football Focus’ 107th ranked wide receiver out of 111 eligible in terms of pure pass catching grade.

Things won’t be much better this season though, outside of Garcon, Jackson, and Reed. Roberts was a slot receiver last season in Arizona. However, he’s graded out below average in each of the 4 seasons he’s been in the league, including 102nd out of 105 eligible in 2012 and 111th out of 114 eligible in 2011. Meanwhile, Logan Paulsen will be the #2 tight end. He’s been the Redskins’ leading tight end in terms of snaps played over the past 2 seasons because of injuries to Fred Davis and Jordan Reed respectively. He’s probably better suited to be a #2 tight end, grading out below average in 2 of the 3 seasons he’s been in the league and played more than 100 snaps, since going undrafted in 2010. Last season, he was Pro Football Focus’ 60th ranked tight end out of 64 eligible. There’s more talent in the receiving corps than there was last season, but there are still some issues outside of the talented trio of Garcon, Jackson, Reed.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

I mentioned that the Redskins had very few injuries last season. Their healthiest unit last year was the offensive line. The same starting 5 played every snap last season except 20 snaps. No offensive line had fewer snaps missed by their original starting five last season and they ranked tied for first in adjusted games lost by an offensive line (tied with Chicago). That’s unlikely to continue this season, which is unfortunate for the Redskins because they had pretty solid offensive line play last season, ranking 4th in pass blocking grade and 9th in run blocking grade. The reason for that is twofold. One, they’re unlikely to have as few injuries as last season. Two, they are switching blocking schemes with Jay Gruden coming in and they will have maximum 3 starters from 2013 in the same position that they started 16 games in last season. They could have as few as one such starter if a couple things go a certain way.

That one starter locked into the same position he was in last season is Trent Williams and with good reason. Williams played 1170 snaps out of 1172 snaps possible last season at left tackle and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked offensive tackle last season. Joe Thomas was the better pass protector last season, which is much more important for a left tackle, and he has the more proven history, but Williams might be the 2nd best offensive tackle in the game. He’s graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in each of the past 3 seasons, grading out 27th in 2011 and 16th in 2012.

The 4th overall pick in 2010, he has finally reached his potential and could easily continue be dominant in the future, only going into his age 26 season. He might not be #1 again, but I expect more dominance from him. He’s going into his contract year and the Redskins are reportedly in discussions with him to make him the highest paid offensive tackle in the league. He was the primary reason why their offensive line graded out so well last season.

Kory Lichtensteiger will continue to start on the offensive line, but, with the team transitioning from the zone blocking scheme they ran under Mike Shanahan, he’ll move from left guard at center. Lichtensteiger graded out slightly above average last season, but he’s never started a game at center and graded out below average in both 2010 and 2012, the other two seasons he was a starter in the NFL. In 2012, he was Pro Football Focus’ 71st ranked guard out of 81 eligible. If I had to guess, he’s more likely to grade out below average rather than above average this season at center.

Taking his spot at left guard will be Shawn Lauvao, who they massively overpaid on a 4-year, 17 million dollar deal this off-season. The new coaching staff likes the 6-3 315 pounder’s scheme fit, but he struggled mightily in the first 4 years of his career in Cleveland, after being drafted in the 3rd round in 2010. He graded out below average in each of those 4 seasons, including 3 seasons as a starter. He was Pro Football Focus’ 70th ranked guard out of 81 eligible in 2013. He’s not a starting caliber player, even if the coaching staff thinks he is. The Redskins’ scheme change forced them to cut the inexpensive Will Montgomery (Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked center last season), move Lichtensteiger out of position, and sign Lauvao to a starter quality deal. It’s a downgrade overall.

The only starter to grade out below average last season for the Redskins was right guard Chris Chester. Chester, owed 3 million non-guaranteed, is a popular cap casualty candidate going into his age 31 season. He could easily be cut if he loses his position battle to 3rd round rookie Spencer Long. Having to start a 3rd round rookie wouldn’t be great for the Redskins, but it’s a possibility considering Chester is aging, struggled last year, and isn’t a good scheme fit. Chester was Pro Football Focus’ 47th ranked guard out of 81 eligible last season, though the veteran had graded out above average in 4 of 5 seasons from 2008-2012.

At right tackle, the Redskins have another veteran competing with a 3rd round rookie to remain at the same position where he started last season. That veteran is Tyler Polumbus, who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked offensive tackle last season. As well as he played last season, there are legitimate reasons why he’s facing competition from 3rd round rookie Morgan Moses. The 6-8 308 pounder is a poor fit for the new blocking scheme and his history is not consistent with how well he played last season. He was Pro Football Focus’ 77th ranked offensive tackle out of 80 eligible in 2012, his only other season as a starter at right tackle, and graded out below average in 2 of 3 seasons from 2009-2011. The offensive line is unlikely to be as good as it was last season.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Along with RG3, the other offensive player they need to get going again is Alfred Morris. Morris rushed for 1613 yards and 13 touchdowns on 335 carries as a 6th round rookie in 2012, an average of 4.81 YPC, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked running back in terms of rushing grade. In 2013, he rushed for 1275 yards and 7 touchdowns on 276 carries, an average of 4.62 YPC, and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked running back in rushing grade. That’s obviously not a bad season, but he wasn’t as good as he was as a rookie.

The good news is that he should find more running space with a healthy Robert Griffin functioning as a dual option at quarterback. The bad news is that Jay Gruden is coming in as head coach and wants to open up the passing offense. Morris has caught 20 passes in 2 seasons and has graded out below average as a pass catcher in each of his two seasons in the league. Gruden is on record saying that he wants to give passing down back Roy Helu more snaps. Last season, Helu played 547 snaps while Morris played 611 snaps. Morris will have a role similar to BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who had 472 snaps in Cincinnati, as opposed to 627 snaps for passing down back Giovani Bernard.

BJGE still had 220 carries last season and Morris is much more talented than him, while Helu is not as talented as Bernard. It could be a more even split in snaps and Morris could still see 240-260 carries this season, including all the goal line carries, and average a high YPC, but Helu will have a bigger role than last season. He’s only averaged 4.26 yards per carry in 3 seasons in the league, but he’s caught 87 passes for 675 yards and a touchdown, and he’s been a top-5 pass blocking running back on Pro Football Focus in 2 of 3 seasons in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2011.

Grade: A-

Defensive Line

As I mentioned, the Redskins had one of the worst defenses in the league, last season, ranking 24th, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 74.56% rate. They also didn’t have a lot of injuries on either side of the ball and there’s no savior returning from injury to help them on this side of the ball. Fortunately, they did sign free agent Jason Hatcher to a 4-year, 27 million dollar deal. It was a risky deal because Hatcher is going into his age 32 season, but, provided he’s healthy (he had off-season knee surgery and is questionable for the start of camp), he should be able to provide them with value this season.

Hatcher is the only player on this 3-man defensive line expected to be an every down player, playing 3-4 defensive end in base packages and then moving inside to rush the passer from the interior in sub packages. Hatcher has experience in both a 3-4 and a 4-3 and has been dominant over the past 2 seasons, playing in a 3-4 in 2012 and a 4-3 in 2013. He was Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2012 and 8th ranked defensive tackle in 2013. He was a deadly interior pass rusher in a 4-3, but he’s probably better suited to be a 3-4. His all-around game was better in 2012 in a 3-4 as the undersized 6-6 285 pounder did struggle against the run in a 4-3 in 2013, grading out below average in that aspect. The late bloomer was also Pro Football Focus’ 6th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2011 as a talented reserve on 428 snaps, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out higher that season.

Hatcher isn’t the only player they gave a significant contract to this off-season, as they re-signed defensive Chris Baker to a 3-year, 9 million dollar deal. It was a weird deal because the 6-2 325 pounder is only a two-down player and he’s not a proven player at all. The 2009 undrafted free agent out of Hampton had played a combined 216 snaps in 4 seasons before last year and then struggled mightily last year on 418 snaps as primarily a base package player, playing 3-4 defensive end and nose tackle. His composite grade would have been 6th worst among 3-4 defensive end and 9th worst among defensive tackles, despite his limited playing time. He wasn’t even good against the run. It was a weird deal.

The Redskins have another two defensive linemen on big contracts, as Barry Cofield and Stephen Bowen signed a 6-year, 36 million dollar deal and a 5-year, 27.5 million dollar deal respectively in the off-season before the 2011 season. Neither has really lived up to it in 3 years. Cofield has been the better of the two, but last season was the first season he had graded out above average in 3 seasons with the team. He’s a great pass rusher, especially last season, when he graded out 6th among defensive tackles in that aspect, but he’s horrible against the run, grading out 8th worst, worst, and 7th worst among defensive tackles in that aspect in 2013, 2012, and 2011 respectively. That makes sense as he’s undersized for a nose tackle at 6-4 303, but the Redskins continue to play him there, at least in base packages. He led the defensive line in snaps played with 739 last season, but he should have a smaller role this season, going into his age 30 season with Jason Hatcher coming in.

Bowen has been even worse, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 27th ranked 3-4 defensive tackle out of 32 eligible in 2011, 26th out of 34 eligible in 2012, and 39th out of 45 eligible in 2013. He’s been so bad that the Redskins have cut his snaps from 816 in 2011 and 808 in 2012 to 422 snaps in 2013, missing 6 games with injuries. Now going into his age 30 season, he should have a similar role and continue to struggle. He’s still not completely recovered from knee surgery. Kedric Golston and Jarvis Jenkins are also in the mix on the defensive line, after they played 472 snaps and 333 snaps respectively last season. Both played primarily in base packages and both also struggled mightily, grading out 40th and 35th respectively among 3-4 defensive ends last season. Adding Hatcher to the mix helps this defensive line, but they still have a ton of problems.

Grade: C+

Linebackers

The star is this defense and one of the only things that kept it afloat last season is Brian Orakpo. Orakpo bounced back in a big way from a torn triceps injury that limited to him to 87 snaps in 2012. Last season, Orakpo graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker and showed a fantastic all-around game. He graded out above average as a run stopper, pass rusher, and in coverage, grading out 9th at his position as a pass rusher, 4th as a run stopper, and 2nd in coverage. The 2009 13th overall pick was also Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2011. The Redskins franchise tagged him this off-season, as they obviously didn’t want him to get away, though they were unable to agree to a long-term deal.

Opposite him, the Redskins have another former first round pick in Ryan Kerrigan, who was the 16th overall pick in 2011. He’s also talented, though he’s nowhere near as good as Orakpo. He’s graded out below average in 2 of his first 3 seasons in the league, but only slightly and in the season he graded out above average, he was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2012. He’s also excelled in pure pass rush grade, while grading out below average against the run in all 3 seasons and below average in coverage in 2 of 3 seasons. He was Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in pass rush grade in 2011, 5th in 2012, and 12th in 2013, which is notable because the most important part of his job is rushing the passer. The Redskins have picked up his 5th year option for 2015.

The Redskins also have decent depth at the outside linebacker position. Rob Jackson graded out slightly below average on 114 snaps in 2011 and 186 snaps in 2013, but, in the only season in his career in which he saw serious action, he graded out above average. Playing 610 snaps in Orakpo’s absence, he graded out above average in 2012. He graded out slightly below average against the run and as a pass rusher, but he was Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in coverage grade, playing 112 coverage snaps. They also have Trent Murphy in the mix at the position. The 2nd round rookie won’t see a significant role as a rookie and was mostly drafted as long-term insurance with Orakpo going into his contract year and Kerrigan having two years left on his deal, which is disappointing because it suggests they won’t try to keep both Orakpo and Kerrigan long-term, but he’ll provide solid depth in the short-term if needed.

Things aren’t nearly as good at middle linebacker. The Redskins re-signed middle linebacker Perry Riley to a 3-year, 13 million dollar deal this off-season. Riley, a 2010 4th round pick, has been starting for the Redskins at middle linebacker for about 2 ½ years, since the middle of the 2011 season. He was about an average starter in both 2011 and 2012, for the first 1 ½ year and a half of his career, but he struggled mightily in his contract year last year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 42nd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. Given that, the Redskins are overpaying. He could bounce back, but there are no guarantees.

London Fletcher was the opposite starter last season, but he retired this off-season. As good of a career as Fletcher had (he may end up in the Hall-of-Fame), him retiring gave the Redskins an opportunity to upgrade his spot, as he struggled mightily in his age 38 season last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked middle linebacker last season. The Redskins didn’t really make the most of that opportunity though.

Keenan Robinson is currently expected to be the starter, but the 2012 6th round pick played 69 snaps as a rookie and didn’t play a snap as a rookie. The new coaching staff reportedly likes his upside, but he’s still a complete unknown as an NFL player. Akeem Jordan and Darryl Sharpton are the veteran options. Jordan was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked middle linebacker last season, including 5th ranked against the run, but he only was a two-down player, playing 483 snaps and grading out below average in coverage. He’s graded out above average in 6 of 7 seasons since going undrafted in 2007, but he’s primarily been a reserve and situational middle linebacker in his career, maxing out at 556 snaps in 2009.

Sharpton, meanwhile, has graded out below average in all 4 seasons he’s been in the league since being drafted in the 4th round in 2010. He’s also missed 22 games in 4 season with injury and only played 550 snaps from 2010-2012. He appeared in 15 games in 2013, starting 8 and playing 743 snaps. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 32nd ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible last season, which isn’t terrible, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 54th ranked middle linebacker (out of 55 eligible) in coverage last season. He was 2nd as a run stopper, but coverage is more important. He should really be limited to two-down work, as should Jordan, which is, perhaps, why the coaching staff is pumping up Robinson so much. He’s the only player with the ability to potentially play all 3 downs opposite Riley. The middle linebackers sink this whole linebacking corps.

Grade: B

Secondary

Easily the worst part of this team is the secondary and they have arguably one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. They don’t have a savior on the way as they had the 4th fewest adjusted games lost in the secondary last season. The biggest free agent acquisition they brought in was Ryan Clark, but he’s going into his age 35 season. The veteran safety graded out below average on Pro Football Focus last season for the first time to 2008. He could be close to done.

He should still be their best safety and an upgrade on what they had last season, as Reed Doughty, Bacarri Rambo, and EJ Biggers graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 74th, 79th, and 80th ranked safeties respectively last season, out of 86 eligible, playing just 414, 340, and 432 snaps respectively. Brandon Meriweather was 77th, leading the position in snaps played for Washington, playing 748 snaps, but he’ll remain as a starter because they don’t have a better option. Now 30 years old, the veteran hasn’t graded out above average in a season in which he played more than 50 snaps (he was limited to 44 in 2012) since 2009. He’s also missed 23 games combined over the past 3 seasons.

At cornerback, the Redskins brought back DeAngelo Hall on a 4-year, 17 million dollar deal. It was a weird move. Last off-season, DeAngelo Hall was cut from his large contract by the Redskins and brought back on a cheap one-year deal worth about a million dollars. It made sense. He was going into his age 30 season and had graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in 4 of his last 5 seasons, dating back to 2008. The only season he graded out above average was 2010. In 2011, he was Pro Football Focus’ 67th ranked cornerback out of 109 eligible and in 2012 he was 64th out of 115 eligible. He struggled again in 2013, grading out 85th out of 110 eligible and, now going into his age 31 season, I thought he’d have to settle for another cheap one year deal on the open market. I guess the Redskins had different idea. He should continue to struggle this season.

The Redskins didn’t bring back Josh Wilson this off-season. Wilson isn’t very good, grading out 76th among cornerbacks, but his absence will mean a bigger role for 2nd year player David Amerson, who graded out 84th last season (including 93rd in pure coverage grade) on 694 snaps as the 3rd cornerback. Rookie cornerbacks tend to struggle so the Redskins are obviously hoping that Amerson can be improved in his 2nd year in the league and turn into a functional starting cornerback, especially since they currently lack one of those on their roster, but there are no guarantees.

Wilson leaving also meant that the Redskins had to find a new #3 cornerback and to fill that role they, for some reason, gave a 2-year, 6 million dollar deal to Tracy Porter. Porter was Pro Football Focus’ 106th ranked cornerback out of 110 eligible last season with Oakland and 91st out of 109 eligible in 2011 with New Orleans, with an injury plagued season in Denver in between (316 snaps in 6 snaps). He hasn’t graded out above average since 2009 and his career has gone severely downhill since he scored a pick six in the Super Bowl in his 2nd year in the league in 2009. He wasn’t worth much more than a minimum deal, but the Redskins overpaid him and locked him into a significant role. It’s an overall horrible secondary on a defense that should continue to be very easy to move the chains on.

Grade: C-

Conclusion

The Redskins will be better this season. I mentioned in the opening that teams that have big win improvements, on average, decline by half that amount the following season. Well the opposite is also true. That would put the Redskins at 6-7 wins if they fall in line with the average. Robert Griffin should be healthy this season, play the whole season, and resemble the quarterback he was as a rookie in 2012. New head coach Jay Gruden coming in is the wild card and he won’t maintain his absurd interception rate from 2012, but he should have a very good season.

The Redskins have a lot of offensive skill position players with RG3, Pierre Garcon, DeSean Jackson, Jordan Reed, and Alfred Morris, but I don’t think that’s going to be enough to get the Redskins back into the playoffs. They had minimal injuries last season outside of Griffin. Their defense will be very easy to move the chains on once again. Their offensive line won’t be nearly as good this season. They won 10 games in 2013, but they weren’t as good as their record suggested that season. They should finish this season in between 2012 and 2013, near that aforementioned 6-7 win range. I’ll have an official wins prediction for them once I’ve finished every team’s write up.

Prediction: 8-8 2nd in NFC East

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Washington Redskins sign S Ryan Clark

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

The Redskins desperately needed safety help and secondary help in general. Brandon Meriweather was their best safety last year, but he’s a below average starter, while 2013 4th and 6th round picks Phillip Thomas and Bacarri Rambo didn’t show anything as rookies last season. Thomas missed the entire season with injury, while Rambo graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 79th ranked safety out of 86 eligible on just 340 snaps.

Ryan Clark was still a solid starter last season, grading out middle of the pack on Pro Football Focus, but he was a far cry from his 2008-2012 form, a stretch in which he finished in the top-25 among safety on Pro Football Focus in all 5 seasons and maxed out at 9th in 2012. Considering his age, as he’s going into his age 35 season, that’s very understandable and it’s probably not going to get any better. However, on a deal worth nearly the veteran’s minimum (about 1.02 million over 1 year) with just a 65K signing bonus guaranteed, this is a cheap pickup that could help this football team if Clark proves he has another decent year in the tank.

Grade: A

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Washington Redskins re-sign CB DeAngelo Hall

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Last off-season, DeAngelo Hall was cut from his large contract by the Redskins and brought back on a cheap one-year deal worth about a million dollars. It made sense. He was going into his age 30 season and had graded out below average on Pro Football Focus in 4 of his last 5 seasons, dating back to 2008. The only season he graded out above average was 2010. In 2011, he was Pro Football Focus’ 66th ranked cornerback out of 109 eligible and in 2012 he was 70th out of 113 eligible. He struggled again in 2013, grading out 84th out of 110 eligible and, now going into his age 31 season, I thought he’d have to settle for another cheap one year deal on the open market.

I guess the Redskins had different idea, giving him this 4-year deal worth 17 million. I’m not entirely sure what he did to deserve that. He was part of the problem for the Redskins in their terrible secondary last season, not part of the solution, and they could have gotten a much better cornerback for this kind of money. The only good part of this deal is that there is just 4.5 million over 1 season guaranteed. The Redskins can cut him after one year, which they probably will after he predictably struggles again next season, and not owe him anything more. This could easily be just a 1-year, 4.5 million dollar deal with the cap hit split over 2 seasons. Even that’s about 4 times too much over a year for Hall though.

Grade: C-

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Washington Redskins sign WR DeSean Jackson

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

The Eagles cut Jackson because he was owed 10.7 million dollars and they didn’t want to pay him that when they already had 5+ million yearly committed to Riley Cooper and Jeremy Maclin at the wide receiver position (not because of racism). There are also reports of disrespectful behavior on Jackson’s part and he even confirmed that he was late to some meetings.

Whether or not any potential gang affiliation played a role is unknown, but comments from some people who have known Jackson since his childhood, coupled with the heavy interest Jackson was met with on the open market suggests that any affiliations were blown out of proportion by shoddy journalism. It really seems like, plain and simple, the Eagles didn’t want to pay Jackson 10.7 million dollars and think they can replace his production with a combination of a rookie and a now healthy Jeremy Maclin to go with Riley Cooper.

That makes a lot of sense. Jackson was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked wide receiver last year, but that’s not consistent with his history as he was actually about an average to slightly above average wide receiver on Pro Football Focus from 2008-2012. It’s possible that he was just a product of Chip Kelly’s offense last season. Even in his 1000 yard seasons in 2009 and 2010, Jackson was only catching about half of his targets as an inconsistent, one trick pony deep threat. Couple that with the fact that he can cause headaches to coaching staffs from time to time and I think the Eagles’ decision to move on from him makes a lot of sense, regardless of any gang affiliation.

The Redskins are getting him at a cheaper rate than the Eagles would have, giving him a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal with 16 million guaranteed, but they still might be overpaying for a system receiver. On top of that, the Redskins didn’t have a lot of cap space coming into this move, part of why they had to add a 4th “dummy year” to this deal to spread out the cap hit over 4 years instead of 3 years. This will be an expensive deal for the Redskins over the next few years and I don’t know if this is the right area for them to be allocating their cap space. They already have a #1 receiver in Pierre Garcon, but they have a large amount of holes on the defensive side of the balls, an amount that will grow next off-season if this deal makes the Redskins unable to retain Brian Orakpo long-term.

Jackson will make 8 million dollars per year in every season of this deal, including a non-guaranteed 8 million in the third year in 2016. This year, 5 million of that is the signing bonus so his cap hit will actually only be 4.25 million (3 million in salary, 1.25 million in prorated signing bonus). However, he’ll have a cap number of 9.25 million in 2015 and if he’s cut after the 2015 season, he’ll have a cap number of 2.5 million in 2016. If he stays on the roster in 2016, he’ll have a cap number of 9.25 million in 2016 and 1.25 million in 2017, his “dummy year.” It’s a lot to commit to a wide receiver when you already have a #1 receiver.

Grade: B-

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Washington Redskins re-sign MLB Perry Riley

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Perry Riley, a 2010 4th round pick, has been starting for the Redskins at middle linebacker for about 2 ½ years, since the middle of the 2011 season. He was about an average starter in both 2011 and 2012, for the first 1 ½ year and a half of his career, but he struggled mightily in his contract year last year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 46th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. Given that, the Redskins are overpaying him giving him 13 million over 3 years (with his first year’s salary of 6 million guaranteed). That being said, the Redskins’ dire need at middle linebacker and his previous history as an average starter make this a little bit better of a deal.

Grade: C+

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Washington Redskins sign DE Jason Hatcher

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Jason Hatcher, now going into his age 32 season, has been a late bloomer in the NFL, but he’s a versatile defensive lineman who can really get after the quarterback. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2011 as a talented reserve on 428 snaps and then he became a starter in 2012. In 2012, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked 3-4 defensive end and in 2013 he was their 8th ranked 4-3 defensive tackle.

He’ll be going back to a 3-4 in Washington and will serve as a much needed difference maker on that defense. He’ll play on a defensive line with Barry Cofield and fellow ex-Cowboy Stephen Bowen, serve as a needed 3rd starter and probably leading the line in snaps played. 27.5 million over 4 years is a very solid deal for him, though his age is a slight concern. That being said, only 10.5 million of this contract is guaranteed and nothing after the 1st season. This could end up being a 2-year, 13.5 million dollar contract if he declines quickly and they’d endure a 4.5 million dollar cap hit (with 2 million in cap savings) by cutting then. Having that kind of out is helpful when dealing with an older player.

Grade: A-

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Washington Redskins 2014 Off-Season Report

stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Commanders, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

The Redskins have started each of the last two seasons 3-6. However, those two seasons have had literally polar opposite endings. In 2012, the Redskins won their last 7 games, finishing 10-6 and winning the NFC East. In 2013, the Redskins lost their last 7 games, finishing 3-13 and with the #2 overall pick in the draft, which they’ll have to send to the Rams as part of the RG3 trade from 2 drafts ago. Mike Shanahan has been fired and Robert Griffin’s future doesn’t look nearly as bright as it did last season.

The Redskins were one of 4 teams to go from the playoffs in 2012 to 5 or fewer wins in 2013. What happened? Well, RG3 was nowhere near the same quarterback. After completing 65.6% of his passes for an average of 8.14 YPA, 20 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions in 2012, Griffin completed 60.1% of his passes for an average of 7.02 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in 2013. Also in 2012, Griffin rushed for 815 yards and 7 touchdowns and in 2013 he rushed for 489 yards and no touchdowns.

That was predictable. RG3 tore his ACL in January and came back after just 8 months for the start of the season week 1 in September. He had no pre-season to get ready and had a prior knee injury. He’s also very reliant on his legs. Even pocket quarterback Tom Brady struggled, by his standards, in his first season back from a torn ACL and he suffered the injury the previous September, had no knee injury history, and had a pre-season to prepare. RG3 probably won’t ever throw just 5 interceptions in a season again like he did as a rookie, but he should bounce back in 2014 and probably in a big way. Where he’s at in his development, as a 2nd year quarterback coming off a serious knee injury, is totally fine. His critics need to calm down.

It also didn’t help Griffin that more of the team’s burden fell on him this season. In 2012, he didn’t have to do as much. The Redskins were able to run very methodical run heavy offenses, which allowed Griffin to scramble and complete short passes more often. In 2013, their defense was so bad that the Redskins often found themselves down early and unable to establish their game plan. Brian Orakpo’s return should have fixed their defensive problems and Orakpo played very well, but that was about it as Orakpo and fellow rush linebacker Ryan Kerrigan represented the only two above average starters on Washington’s defense. Once reliable players like Perry Riley and Josh Wilson had very bad seasons and the secondary saw two rookies struggle while playing significant snaps.

The fix on defense is not as clear. The Redskins do have 6 defensive starters set to hit free agency, which could allow them to redesign the unit, but they don’t have a ton of cap space and they don’t have their own first round pick. On top of that, Brian Orakpo is a free agent and he’ll need to be re-signed. The best case scenario on their defense is that they re-sign Orakpo, the new coaching staff brings in a strong defensive coordinator who offers a needed change from Jim Haslett, they get a few smart signings in free agency, and they get strong play from their rookies and from 2nd year players David Amerson, Philip Thomas, and Baccari Rambo. The offense should be better in 2014, but it’s hard to see the Redskins climbing back to the top of the NFC East without a strong defensive turnaround.

Another reason why the Redskins won just 3 games was that they “rested” RG3 down the stretch, in favor of backup Kirk Cousins. Their logic was that doing so would allow RG3 to rest, prevent him from future injury, and give them an opportunity to showcase Kirk Cousins to teams as a trade chip, which would net them another much needed draft pick to fix their defense. Now it looks like it could completely backfire. Kirk Cousins was miserable in 3 games against three of the worst defenses in the NFL, completing 53.1% of his passes for an average of 5.75 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. It would be hard to argue that the Redskins could get more for Cousins now than they could have before “showcasing” him and they probably would struggle to even get the 4th round pick they used on him in the 2012 NFL Draft, to be Griffin’s backup.

On top of that, they could have cost RG3 valuable game reps to help get his legs back under him, by sitting him those last 3 games. It’s probably not going to be a huge deal and they did prevent him from injury, but they ran the risk of stunting his recovery. Finally, they lost all 3 games, giving them a 3-13 finish and locking them into the #2 pick, which they’ll have to give to St. Louis. Considering two of the losses came by a combined 2 points, it’s very reasonable that they could have finished 5-11 if Griffin had started those 3 games, gotten Griffin some needed reps and gotten his confidence up against bad teams and given the team some feel good momentum into 2014. Instead, the only team who couldn’t benefit from tanking executed it to perfection.

Positional Needs

Cornerback

The Redskins’ secondary struggled mightily in 2013. The trio of Josh Wilson, DeAngelo Hall, and David Amerson all played poorly at cornerback. Amerson, a 2013 2nd round pick, will get another shot as a starter, but Hall and Wilson will both be free agents this off-season. They should use this opportunity to look at new options at the position.

Safety

Brandon Meriweather and EJ Biggers are also free agents this off-season and like at cornerback, they should use this opportunity to upgrade the position. Phillip Thomas and Bacarri Rambo were 4th and 6th round picks in the 2013 draft, but Thomas missed the entire season with injury, while Rambo struggled whenever he was asked to play. It’ll be tough to count on just them going forward, so they need to add more talent here.

Middle Linebacker

Perry Riley and London Fletcher graded out 46th and 55th respectively among 55 eligible middle linebackers on Pro Football Focus. Fletcher is clearly on his last legs and will wisely be retiring this off-season as a free agent who will be 39 in 2014. Riley is also a free agent this off-season. Ideally, they’d be able to get two upgrades here this off-season, but they need to get at least one.

Wide Receiver

The Redskins need a reliable receiver opposite Pierre Garcon. Santana Moss was 2nd on the team among wide receivers in receiving yards and he only had 452. He’ll be a free agent going into his age 35 season this off-season and Josh Morgan, a bust of a free agent signing, will also be a free agent. Leonard Hankerson flashes, but the 2011 3rd round pick is very inconsistent and will be coming off of a torn ACL suffered in November. That will put him in a race to get ready for training camp.

Outside Linebacker

Brian Orakpo was probably one of the top-20 defensive players in the NFL this season and still the Redskins’ defense was terrible. Can you imagine how bad they would be without him? The Redskins shouldn’t let it get to the point where they find out. Priority #1 of their off-season should be locking up Orakpo and not letting him hit the open market, whether that’s with an extension after the season or by franchise tagging him in March. If for some reason they let him go, they’ll need to find a replacement because there really isn’t one on the roster.

Defensive End

Stephen Bowen and Barry Cofield will probably be back as starters on the defensive line next season. Neither of them is worth their salary, as they’re both just average starters, but the Redskins are in no position to be cutting average starters on defense, especially since cutting either one wouldn’t really free up much cap space at this point in their contracts. They need a 3rd defensive line starter, however. Adam Carriker is likely going to be a cap casualty, while Kedric Golston, Chris Baker, and Jarvis Jenkins are mediocre at best.

Punter

The Redskins ranked 30th in the NFL in punting average and dead last in net punting average as part of their league worst special teams. Sav Rocca will probably be a cap casualty this off-season, so the Redskins can find a replacement fairly easily.

Kick Returner

Punting wasn’t the Redskins’ only special teams problem, as they averaged just 20.0 yards per return, tied for worst in the NFL. Maybe having 240 pound tight end Niles Paul as their primary kick returner wasn’t a good idea. He needs to be replaced back there.

Punt Returner

Punt returning was also a problem as well, as they ranked 28th in the NFL, averaging 6.4 yards per return. Santana Moss was their primary punt returner and he’s probably going to be gone as a free agent heading into his age 35 season this off-season. They should take this opportunity to replace him.

Key free agents

OLB Brian Orakpo

The Redskins had one of the worst defenses in the NFL despite the phenomenal play of Brian Orakpo. Orakpo bounced back from a lost season with injury in 2012 and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked rush linebacker, excelling in all three facets of the game, rushing the passer, stopping the run, and in coverage. The 2009 1st round pick had some good years before, but this was by far his best. Can you imagine how bad they’d be without him? They can’t allow him to hit the open market this off-season, even if that means franchise tagging him. He’ll get a big payday this off-season.

CB Josh Wilson

Josh Wilson has usually been a decent starter, but he struggled along with the rest of the Washington secondary this year, grading out below average on Pro Football Focus. His biggest problem was missing 16 tackles. Someone may still bring him in as a starter this off-season. Considering his history, that wouldn’t be the worst idea. His best year was 2010, when he graded out 4th among cornerbacks, and he also graded out above average in both 2011 and 2012.

S Brandon Meriweather

People were shocked when the Patriots made two-time Pro-Bowler Brandon Meriweather a final cut before the 2011 season, but they made the Super Bowl, while Meriweather didn’t finish the season in Chicago. He’s caught on in Washington over the past 2 years, but he’s graded out below average on Pro Football Focus and has only played 14 of 32 games thanks to injuries. He’d be a desperation signing for a team as a starting safety.

CB DeAngelo Hall

DeAngelo Hall was a cap casualty of the Redskins last off-season, but eventually came back on a one year deal worth a million dollars. The Redskins got what they paid for, as Hall struggled as a starting cornerback, a big part of the reason why the Redskins’ had so many problems on defense. Going into his age 31 season, he may be limited to one year deals for around the veteran’s minimum again.

MLB Perry Riley

A 2010 4th round pick, Riley flashed in a half season as a starter in 2011 and wasn’t bad in 2012 as a full-time starter, but didn’t really live up to his promise. In 2013, he had his worst year at the worst time, as he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 46th ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. He’ll be looking at cheap one year deals this off-season and may have to compete for a starting job somewhere.

S EJ Biggers

Biggers struggled for the most of his tenure in Tampa Bay, but started to show some promise towards the end of his 4-year tenure in 2012 and was brought in by the Redskins, where he reunited with Raheem Morris, the Buccaneers former Head Coach and current Redskins defensive backs coach. Biggers was converted to safety in Washington and was terrible in limited action at the position. He’ll be greeted with a cold market this off-season.

TE Fred Davis

Fred Davis has plenty of talent. During 18 games from 2011-2012, he caught 82 passes for 1112 yards and 3 touchdowns. However, he missed 13 games and most of a 14th, 4 with suspension and the others after tearing his Achilles. A 2008 2nd round pick, Davis has plenty of talent and was franchise tagged after the 2011 season, but he failed to recover from the Achilles injury he suffered in 2012 and only caught 7 passes in 2013. During that 2013 season, he fell behind promising rookie Jordan Reed on the depth chart and was frequently a healthy scratch because of his inability to block and his bad attitude. He frequently spoke out saying he wanted a trade at all costs. The Redskins couldn’t get anything for him. He’s worth a buy low flier because of his upside and he may just need a change of scenery, but he could easily disappoint. He’s a one dimensional pass catcher who may have lost his explosiveness and could cause continuing problems in the locker room.

WR Santana Moss

Santana Moss had a fantastic 9-year tenure in Washington, catching 571 passes for 7741 yards and 45 touchdowns and he has over 10,000 yards receiving thus far in his 13-year-career. However, he’s heading into his age 35 season and coming off of his lowest receiving yardage total since his 2nd year in the NFL in 2002. He may be done. At the very least, he’ll have to wait a while to generate interest.

MLB London Fletcher

London Fletcher is expected to retire this off-season, coming off of his age 38 season. It’s coming 2 years too late. Fletcher looked old and slow over the past two years, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst and worst ranked middle linebacker in 2012 and 2013 respectively. Now he’ll just have to sit and wait for the Hall of Fame to call and it should. By some measures, he’s the NFL’s all-time leader in tackles.

Cap Casualty Candidates

DE Adam Carriker

Adam Carriker has played 42 snaps over the past 2 seasons thanks to injury and didn’t play a snap in 2013. He wasn’t that great before injury anyway. There’s no chance he gets the 6.7 million he’s owed in 2014. The Redskins can save 3.2 million on the cap by cutting him. He’s as good as gone.

P Sav Rocca

As I mentioned, The Redskins ranked 30th in the NFL in punting average and dead last in net punting average as part of their league worst special teams. Punter Sav Rocca is going into his age 41 season this off-season and the Redskins can save 1.2 million on the cap by cutting him in his contract year and replacing him with someone else, possibly a rookie. They’ll probably do that.

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Washington Redskins at New York Giants: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Commanders, Giants, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (3-10) at New York Giants (6-9)

The Giants went into Detroit and beat the Lions last week, while the Redskins lost at home to the Cowboys. Surely the Giants will win at home here against the Redskins and cover this small spread right? Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as they are all over the Giants as mere 4 point favorites. However, this is the NFL. Things can change from a week to week basis very quickly and the odds makers always win in the long run.

The Giants are in a bad spot coming off such an emotional overtime win over the Lions last week. Teams are 24-41 ATS since 2002 as home favorites off of a win by 1-3 points as road underdogs of 3 or more, which makes sense, as teams can be overconfident and overvalued in those situations and suffer a hangover effect. We have seen this line shift from 3 to 4 in the past week, which is something.

As for the Redskins, they’re actually in a good spot after last week’s loss. Teams on a losing streak of 6 or more are 42-24 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by a touchdown or less. Teams on long losing streaks tend to be undervalued because no one wants to bet on them, but some teams on long losing streaks are teams that quit. This isolates out those teams because, if they recently played a close game, they’re probably still fighting. The Redskins covered in this spot last week, losing by a mere point as 3 point home underdogs. They’re still fighting hard, in spite of this lost season, because the players are trying to impress any future coaching staff they may have, or any future team that might have interest in them in free agency.

Besides, while the Giants won last week as road underdogs, a situation they historically do well in since 2004, when Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin first came to town, now they are home favorites, a situation they have not done well in since 2004, especially late in the season. While they are 35-20 ATS as road underdogs since 2004, they are 8-16 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 or more in week 9 or later over that time period. Last week, they had no pressure and were able to take advantage of a choking Detroit team, but now the pressure and the expectations are back on the Giants as significant home favorites. They usually are the ones who choke in that situation.

Home struggles aren’t exclusive just to the Giants. The NFC East in general seems to struggle at home and play well on the road, at least in recent years. They are 79-113 ATS at home since 2008, as opposed to 107-89 ATS on the road. As you can expect, in divisional games, the road team generally has the advantage in the NFC East and that’s true, as the home team is 45-27 ATS in NFC East games since 2008, including 17-32 ATS as home favorites. Given that, the fact that the Redskins almost pulled off the home win last week is actually pretty impressive and I give them a good chance to pull off the road upset here this week. This trend worked against the Redskins the last time these two teams met in week 13, when the Redskins lost a tough one as 1 point home favorites.

Going off of that game, another trend favors the Redskins. Teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 48-23 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the same season, regular season rematch. It makes sense. Matchups where the team who is favored is dependent on the location tend to be matchups between very even teams and very even teams tend to split the season series no matter what. If you’ve lost as home favorites, you have to win as road underdogs in this situation to split the season series. Teams in this situation do win as road underdogs at a .500 rate since 2002 (39-39) and an even higher percentage, as previously mentioned, about 2/3rds, cover the spread. The Redskins have room to play with here because they are 4 point underdogs so they can cover even if they don’t win.

It might not seem like it, but in spite of their respective records (Giants are 6-9 and the Redskins are 3-10) and what happened last week, these teams are actually very comparable and even. In fact, in terms of rate of moving the chains differential, the Redskins actually rank higher. They move the chains at a 71.34% rate, as opposed to 75.88% for their opponents, a differential of -4.54%, which ranks 26th in the NFL. 26th isn’t anything to write home about, but it’s still better than the Giants, who come in 28th. They move the chains at a 65.70% rate, as opposed to 71.46% for their opponents, a differential of -5.76%.

Now, I don’t think the Redskins are better than the Giants as that suggests. Rate of moving the chains differential doesn’t take into account special teams, intentionally as people tend to put too much value into something that is such a small percentage of the plays in a game and so tough to be sustainable good at. However, the Redskins have proven this season that they are sustainable bad at special teams, which is why New York is probably better, but it’s not by a lot. At the very least, this line, which suggests the Giants are a point better than Washington, is accurate and, of course, that’s before we get into the Giants home struggles, the home struggles of the NFC East as a whole, and the individual situations these two teams are in.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play on Washington is because neither of these two teams has anything to play for in terms of playoffs. Ordinarily, I don’t like betting on games in which both teams have been eliminated from the playoffs, because you never know what their individual motivations are. Sure, they’re probably going to continue trying because the majority of the individual players are playing for their jobs and salaries in 2014, but you can never be sure. However, there’s still enough here for me to be somewhat confident in the Redskins, especially since the Redskins don’t have their own first round pick and don’t have anything to “tank” for. They should be the right side.

Washington Redskins 24 New York Giants 23 Upset Pick +160

Pick against spread: Washington +4

Confidence: Medium

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Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, Commanders, Cowboys, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (3-11) at Dallas Cowboys (7-7)

At first glance, this line doesn’t make any sense. In what universe are the Cowboys 6 points better than the Redskins (3 points for home field advantage)? The Cowboys’ defense not only is the worst defense in the NFL, but it’s approaching historically bad. They only thing they do right is take away the ball, as their 26 takeaways have led to a +11 turnover margin for the Cowboys, but that’s unsustainable, especially since it’s propelled by a ridiculous 70.00% fumble recovery rate.

If the Cowboys can’t take the ball away, they generally can’t stop you. They’ve allowed a league worst 350 first downs, to go with 45 touchdowns allowed (tied for 2nd worst in the NFL), and they’ve only forced 56 punts (tied for worst in the NFL) and 25 field goal attempts (pretty middle of the pack). They are allowing opponents to move the chains at an insane 78.06% rate. For comparison’s sake, if an offense were to be moving the chains at that rate, it would be 2nd in the NFL, behind only Denver. Kirk Cousins will be the 4th straight backup quarterback the Cowboys have faced, but they’ve allowed the last 3 (Matt McGloin, Josh McCown, and Matt Flynn), to complete 71 of 105 (67.6%) for 902 yards (8.59 YPA), 8 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. Why can’t Kirk Cousins shred them as well?

Washington’s defense isn’t much better. In fact, they’re the only team in the NFL that has surrendered more offensive touchdowns than the Cowboys. Their opponents move the chains at a 75.88% rate, which is better than Dallas, but hardly something to be proud of. The Cowboys have an explosive offense that can shred that defense, as the move the chains at a 74.38% rate, but the Redskins’ offense is solid as well, moving the chains at a 71.40% rate. Kirk Cousins is a downgrade from Robert Griffin, but not a significant one and they can still run the ball well with Alfred Morris.

This game definitely has the looks of a shootout, but we’re getting line value with the Redskins. The Cowboys’ rate of moving the chains differential of -3.69% ranks 24th in the NFL, while the Redskins’ differential of -4.48% comes in 26th. That suggests this line should be closer to Washington being favored by 2, instead of underdogs of 3. You can’t follow that blindly and, contrary to popular believe, Robert Griffin not being out there does hurt them (oh Kirk Cousins shredded Atlanta? congratulations), but I think there’s definitely something to the Cowboys not deserving to be favored by this much. I think the only team in the NFL they deserve to be favored by a field goal on the road against is Jacksonville.

In spite of that, the public is all over Dallas and I love to fade the public whenever it makes sense, as they always lose money in the long run. It makes sense here. The Redskins have a trend working in their favor as well. For one, teams on a losing streak of 6 or more are 41-24 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by a touchdown or less. Teams on long losing streaks tend to be undervalued because no one wants to bet on them, but some teams on long losing streaks are teams that quit. This isolates out those teams because, if they recently played a close game, they’re probably still fighting. On top of that, Tony Romo’s 12-25 ATS record in week 13 or later is worth noting. It’s not all on him, but this team does tend to collapse towards the end of the season, for whatever reason.

On the other hand, however, there are plenty of things working for the Cowboys. They’re in the better spot here from a pure trends situation. While they will be favorites again next week, the Redskins will be underdogs again, as they head to New York to face the Giants. Teams are 39-22 ATS as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites, while teams are 26-40 ATS as divisional home underdogs before being divisional road underdogs.

However, both of those trends stem from the fact that teams that will be favorites again don’t usually have a distraction game on the horizon, while teams that will be underdogs again usually do. I don’t think that applies here. The Cowboys will be playing for the division next week against Philadelphia so, while they will be favorites, it doesn’t make that won’t be a distraction. Sure, they need to win here to make sure that game is even meaningful, but it’s the tougher of the Cowboys’ two games, so they could actually be caught looking forward to it. Washington, meanwhile, probably actually cares more about this one that they do about a 5-9 Giants team that isn’t playoff bound.

Still, there is one trend that applies to this situation that makes sense. Road favorites are 45-25 ATS off of a close (between 1-3 points) home loss as favorites of more than 3 points. Teams in that situation tend to be embarrassed about such a close home upset loss and, as long as the odds makers still believe in them enough to make them road favorites, they tend to redeem themselves the following week. The Cowboys may or may not deserve to be road favorites, but it’s worth noting. Also worth noting is that the NFC East is 45-26 ATS on the road in divisional games. Those two things and the fact that I don’t totally trust Kirk Cousins scare me off of Washington, but they should still be the right side, as long as we’re getting field goal protection.

Dallas Cowboys 31 Washington Redskins 30

Pick against spread: Washington +3

 

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick