Commanders

Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Commanders, Falcons, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (3-10) at Atlanta Falcons (3-10)

What’s reportedly happening in Washington between Head Coach Mike Shanahan and Owner Dan Snyder is one of the most dysfunctional things that has happened between a head coach and Owner in a long while. Shanahan has benched Robert Griffin and will be shutting him down for the season, leaving the team with Kirk Cousins as the starter and Rex Grossman as the backup going forward. That much is known. What’s also being reported is that the reason Shanahan is doing this is out of spite to owner Dan Snyder in an attempt to get fired.

Snyder wants Shanahan to quit so he wouldn’t have to pay him his $7 million dollar salary for 2014, but Shanahan wants that money (possibly knowing this is the end of his career as an NFL head coach) so he is standing his ground and trying to get himself fired. This is despite the fact that he reportedly thought about quitting last season because his relationship with Snyder had broken down and only didn’t because Griffin got hurt. Ironically, the guys at ESPN floated around the idea of benching Robert Griffin for Kirk Cousins as a legitimate idea a few weeks ago and now Shanahan is doing exactly that out of sabotage. Great job guys.

If it’s true, it’s obviously a very dysfunctional situation, but even if it’s not true, Kirk Cousins is going to start this one here. Cousins is a downgrade over Griffin, who wasn’t having that bad of a season. He wasn’t playing at the level he was at last year because of an ACL injury, an off-season for the league to adjust, and an unsustainable interception rate and rate of fumbles recovered. However, he was still completing 60.1% of his passes for an average of 7.02 yards per attempt, 16 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, with 489 rushing yards on 86 carries. The Redskins offense, moving the chains at a solid 71.73% rate, has been the strength of the team. Their defense is just allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76.60% rate.

Cousins could have a good game though. He’s definitely flashed in limited action in relief of Griffin thus far in his two year career, but overall his numbers have left something to be desired, as he’s completing 61.6% of his passes for 7.89 yards per attempt, 4 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. He hasn’t done enough to prove the league wrong for letting him fall to the 4th round yet. However, Atlanta’s defense is almost as bad as Washington’s, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.87% rate, so Cousins could have some success. He’ll also be able to lean on Alfred Morris against the Falcons’ putrid run defense.

Given that, this line seems too high. This line has actually shifted a ridiculous 4.5 points from this week to last week, as the early line had Atlanta favored by 2.5, but now they are favored by 7 points and the public is still all over them. That’s significant as it passed the key numbers of 3, 4, and 6 all the way to the key number of 7. On average, about 25% of games are decided by 3-7 points, so that line movement is much more significant than the public seems to realize. A line will only shift that much if a top level quarterback gets injured. I don’t think that line movement is valid.

Yes, I guess Griffin is “injured,” but I don’t think the downgrade from him to Cousins is significant enough for the line to shift that much. The dysfunction surrounding the franchise is also a factor, but, at the end of the day, the individual players care more about proving themselves on the field for the new coaching staff and maybe for new teams in 2014 than they do about bickering between the owner and the head coach.

I think the main factor for the line movement was Washington’s blowout loss at home to Kansas City last week, as they lost 45-10. However, it wasn’t as bad as that would suggest as the Chiefs scored 2 touchdowns on returns. That’s inconsistent and the Redskins were actually much more competitive in terms of first downs (20 to 13 Kansas City) and yards (346 to 257 Washington), than the final score would suggest.

Actually, the fact that they got blown out last week makes it more likely that they’ll cover the spread this week. Teams are 44-23 ATS off of a loss by 35 or more since 2002. It might seem counterintuitive, but teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and I think all three are definitely going to be true this week.

Starting with undervalued, I already mentioned the huge line movement, but the fact that the Redskins are underdogs of 6 or more here is very relevant. One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Falcons, however, sit at 3-10 and cannot possibly finish better than 6-10. In spite of that, they are still favored by a touchdown. For what it’s worth, the Falcons are the first 3-10 teams favored by more than 6 points as far back as my data goes (1989). On top of that, the Falcons have just three home victories of more than a touchdown over the past two seasons combined and that includes last season when they went 13-3. Of those three wins, only two came by more than a touchdown and they haven’t won all season by more than 8 points.

Now going onto overlooked, it definitely makes sense that the Falcons would overlook a dysfunctional team like the Redskins this week, especially with a trip to San Francisco and a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship game on the schedule next week. The Falcons will almost definitely be underdogs of 10 or more in San Francisco next week and teams tend to be distracted and struggle to cover the spread before being double digit underdogs.

Teams are 36-71 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. Going off of that, teams are 9-26 ATS since 1989 as favorites of 7 or more before being double digit underdogs. Atlanta has proven they’ll get up for big games even in the midst of their disappointing season, almost knocking off New Orleans a few weeks ago. However, they also don’t seem to put up a ton of effort for lesser opponents, getting blown out by Tampa Bay, losing in Green Bay to Matt Flynn, and barely beating the Bills on essentially a neutral field, to go with that New Orleans game in their last 4 game stretch. With the biggest game remaining on their schedule coming up next week, I’d be shocked if they brought their “A game” for Washington this week.

Finally, going onto embarrassed, I think this one is pretty self-explanatory and I think the Redskins’ level of embarrassment right now as professional football players will allow them to play as well as they can, despite what’s going on between Shanahan and Snyder. Their “A game” isn’t very good anymore, but it’s still good enough for them to keep it close with a mediocre at best Atlanta team that almost definitely won’t have their A game. This would be my Pick of the Week if Griffin were playing or if I trusted Cousins more, but there’s too much stuff going on in Washington’s favor this week for me to not make them a high confidence pick at the very least.

Atlanta Falcons 26 Washington Redskins 24

Pick against spread: Washington +7

Confidence: High

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Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Commanders, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (9-3) at Washington Redskins (3-9)

How can the Chiefs not beat the Redskins by 4 or more right? Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as they are all over the Chiefs favored by 3.5 here. As is often the case with huge public leans, I think the odds makers are set to make a lot of money here. I love fading the public and I think they are flat out wrong here because they aren’t seeing the whole picture.

This line suggests that the Redskins would be underdogs of about 9.5 points in Kansas City. This is the same team that didn’t cover as 7.5 point home favorites against the Texans and Browns and that was when they still had Justin Houston. They really miss him and their pass rush has suddenly become non-existent. They have 1 sack in the past 3 weeks, after 36 in their first 9 games. As a result, they have allowed 103 points over the past 3 games, after allowing just 111 in their first 9 games combined.

Sure, they’ve faced a very tough batch of offenses in the last 3 weeks, going against Denver twice and San Diego, but you can just as easily point out that they faced a very easy batch of offenses in their first 9 games. Over their last 5 games before the first Denver game, they faced a backup quarterback in 4 of 5 games, including three 3rd string quarterbacks. They beat those three 3rd string quarterbacks by a combined 17 points. They were way too dependent on easy competition, recovering fumbles, winning the turnover battle, and return touchdowns for close wins early in the season. They’ve just been exposed over the past 3 weeks, especially without Justin Houston.

Also, the Redskins don’t have a bad offense at all, moving the chains at a 75% rate. Their biggest issue is their defense, which allows opponents to move the chains at a 78% rate, but we’re still getting line value with them. The Chiefs’ offense moves the ball at just a 73% rate, as opposed to 69% for their opponents. That suggests this line should be around 2 points and that’s before you take schedule into account. In terms of DVOA, the Chiefs have faced the easiest schedule, while the Redskins have faced the 12th hardest.

The Chiefs are also in a bad spot. They put everything they had into that Denver game last week and came up short. They’re essentially locked into the 5th seed no matter what they do. They have a 3 game lead over the 6th seeded Ravens and they are essentially two games back of the Broncos for the division (1 game and tiebreaker) who have an incredibly easy schedule the rest of the way. Teams are 38-51 ATS as road favorites off of a loss as home favorites since 1989.

The Redskins, meanwhile, are in a good spot as home underdogs off of a loss as home underdogs, a situation teams are 65-45 ATS in since 2002. They’re actually in their third straight game as home underdogs. It’s a small sample size obviously, but teams are 8-3 ATS as home underdogs off of back-to-back losses as home underdogs since 2002, 13-6 ATS if you go back to 1989 to get a larger sample size. It would be a bigger play on the Redskins if I trusted they hadn’t mailed in the season, unfamiliar with struggling after what happened last year, but they should get up for this one and as long as we’re getting field goal protection with them, they should be the right side.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Washington Redskins 23

Pick against spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Low

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Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Commanders, Uncategorized

Last week: 25 (-3)

Record: 3-8

Any talk of the Redskins benching RG3 is just absurd media sensationalism. This is what the media does. They build players up to undeservedly high levels and then destroy them when they fail to meet those expectations. RG3 isn’t even having that bad of a season, completing 59.8% of his passes for an average of 7.12 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, to go with 372 rushing yards on 70 carries. The Redskins’ offense is moving the chains at a 75% rate. The defense is a much bigger problem. For a 2nd year quarterback 10-11 months removed from an ACL tear, that’s not bad. Even Tom Brady wasn’t the same the year after his ACL tear and he had 4 extra months to recover, less dependency on athleticism, and no prior knee injury history. This is just something Griffin will have to play through. He’ll have his legs back under him by next year. Shutting him down will just delay his recovery. The Redskins still made the right choice trading for him and need to continue making the right choice by letting him play and keeping Mike Shanahan.

Week 12 Studs

None

Week 12 Duds

CB Josh Wilson

TE Logan Paulsen

QB Robert Griffin

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New York Giants at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Commanders, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (4-7) at Washington Redskins (3-8)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, this line seems pretty off at first glance. The Giants aren’t significantly better than the Redskins, which is what this line would suggest, as the Giants are favored in Washington. The Redskins were favored by 1.5 points last week in the early line, so the line has essentially shifted 3 points in a week as a result of the Redskins’ very public blowout loss to the 49ers at home. The Redskins didn’t look good, but they still might be a better team than the Giants.

They are moving the chains at a 75% rate, as opposed to 78% for their opponents, a differential that is 22nd in the NFL. The Giants, on the other hand, are moving the chains at a 68% rate, as opposed to 73% for their opponent, which ranks 28th. This suggests the Redskins should be favored by 4.5 points. Even if the Giants are a better team than the Redskins, it’s hard to make the argument that they’re 4.5 points better, which is what them being favored by 1.5 points on the road suggests. Football Outsiders backs this up as the Giants are just 26th in DVOA, while the Redskins are 29th. That’s pretty even.

The Redskins didn’t play well against the 49ers last week, but the 49ers are a very good team, especially off of a loss. They’ve been blowing out sub-.500 teams all season, beating them by about an average of 20.3 points per game, which is about what the Redskins lost by. There’s not a ton of shame in that. That loss also puts them in a good spot as home underdogs are 65-45 ATS since 2002 off of a loss as home underdogs. The Giants are also in a bad spot going on the road off of 3 straight home games as favorites. Teams are 26-41 ATS in that spot since 1989, including 18-31 ATS as road favorites. The Giants aren’t used to being away from home.

On the other hand, the Redskins seem to be self-destructing a little bit. On the season, they might be the better team than the Giants, but maybe not right now. They seem to be getting worse by the week, while the Giants have solved a lot of their turnover issues and are getting key players healthy. The Giants might not be 4.5 points better than the Redskins either way, but consider that NFC East teams usually are much better on the road than at home.

The NFC East is 43-75 ATS at home, as opposed to 67-54 ATS on the road. As a result, the home team in divisional matchups is just 17-27 ATS over that time frame and 26-44 ATS if you expand the sample size back to 2008. The Giants in particular are 52-32 ATS on the road since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004. Winning on the road, especially against still a small line, might not be that big of a deal.

While the Redskins are in a good spot as home underdogs off a loss as home underdogs, they’re also in a bad spot as home underdogs before being home underdogs as the Chiefs come to town next week. Teams are 67-91 ATS in that spot since 2002. Since 1989, teams are 8-16 ATS as home underdogs before being home underdogs after a loss as home underdogs, so that trend would seem to nullify the previous trend and then some.

There is also a trend that benefits the Giants as teams are 47-31 ATS as road favorites off of a loss by 1-3 points as home favorites. The Giants lost by 3 to the Cowboys last week, in another example of NFC East road supremacy. The Giants might just continue that this week, against a small line. Gun to my head, I’m taking the Redskins and fading the heavy public lean on the Giants, but I’m not confident at all.

Washington Redskins 23 New York Giants 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Washington +1.5

Confidence: None

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San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, 49ers, Commanders, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (6-4) at Washington Redskins (3-7)

The 49ers have been deadly off of a loss in the Jim Harbaugh era. It might not seem that way because they’ve lost back-to-back games on separate occasions twice this season. However, they are 6-3 ATS off of a loss in the Jim Harbaugh era, including 8-3 ATS if you include week 1 losses off of a post-season loss. Even that’s misleading because those 3 ATS losses include a 14 point win as 16.5 point favorites and a 7 point win as 7.5 point favorites, a game they would have covered against the Seahawks if Jim Harbaugh hadn’t declined a safety, in favor of just running the clock out. Last week, they were the responsible for the Saints not covering at home under Sean Payton for first time since 2010, snapping a streak of 13 streak covers with a push.

They’ve lost off of a loss just twice in the Jim Harbaugh era (as opposed to 8 wins), both times this season, and one of those was the closest game the Saints had played at home under Sean Payton in 14 games. The other one was a huge blowout at home at the hands of the Colts, but, when you look at the whole sample size, that’s clearly the fluke. Meanwhile, those 8 wins came by an average of 18 points per game. Finally, in their only instance in the Jim Harbaugh era off of back-to-back losses, they won 35-11 in St. Louis as 3 point favorites. They could easily blowout the Redskins here.

The 49ers usually take care of business and dominate weaker opponents, which is exactly what the Redskins are. In the Jim Harbaugh era, they are 20-11 ATS as 3+ point favorites, including 7-4 ATS on the road. Colin Kaepernick is struggling on the season, but he’s played well against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, completing 71 of 114 for 1055 yards, 7 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 169 yards and 3 touchdowns on 29 carries in 5 games. They’ve won all 5 of those games by an average of 21.4 points per game.

Good defenses seem to be able to stifle Kaepernick, but Washington has one of the worst defenses in the NFL, so he should be able to have a great game. The 49ers defense is as good as it’s ever been, so that could very easily lead to a blowout win here, against the Redskins team that is essentially eliminated and going through what appears to be an internal struggle. They might just through in the towel on this season. The 49ers are built to blowout bad teams if they can establish themselves.

The 49ers are also at an advantage because this game will be at night and West Coast teams dominate East Coast teams at night, no matter where the game is played, covering at about a 67% rate. The Redskins could be getting tired towards the end of this game, while the 49ers will be alert the whole time. The 49ers have no distractions, with a home game against the Rams next up, coming off a loss, and should be able to take care of business by blowing out an inferior opponent.

San Francisco 49ers 34 Washington Redskins 17

Pick against spread: San Francisco -5.5

Confidence: Medium

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Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Commanders, Uncategorized

Last week: 23 (+0)

Record: 3-6

The Redskins are at 3-6, which is right where they were last season when they ripped off 7 straight wins and won the division. The difference this year is that their remaining schedule is harder and their team isn’t as good. Last season, they’re final 7 opponents finished 48-64. This year, their final 7 opponents currently are a combined 37-36. Robert Griffin is also not the same quarterback he was last year and their team is not dominating the turnover battle like they did last year, when they finished +17. The good news is they play in the easiest division in football and it won’t take 10 wins to win like last year, but I still have Philadelphia and Dallas slightly ahead of them.

Week 10 Studs

QB Robert Griffin

LT Trent Williams

TE Jordan Reed

Week 10 Duds

LG Kory Lichtensteiger

RG Chris Chester

LOLB Ryan Kerrigan

MLB London Fletcher

FS Brandon Meriweather

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Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Commanders, Eagles, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (3-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)

One of the weirder streaks in the NFL is that the Eagles have lost 10 straight home games, four off of the all-time record. Yes, they haven’t been a very good team over the past 2 seasons, but they also have won 6 of their past 10 road games. Spread wise, they’ve actually failed to cover in 12 straight home games, as opposed to 8-4 ATS in their last 12 road games. Sure, they have Nick Foles now, but even he struggled in his only home start of the season, completing 11 of 29 for 80 yards. Most of his action this season has been on the road, completing 70.8% of his passes for an average of 11.1 YPA, 16 touchdowns, and no interceptions.

At this point, the Eagles’ home struggles are worth noting. At the very least, home field doesn’t provide much of an advantage for them. This doesn’t seem to just be a Philadelphia thing. The NFC East is 41-72 ATS at home since 2010, including 16-26 ATS in divisional matchups, 25-43 ATS if you go back to 2008. For whatever reason, NFC East teams seem to have less home field advantage than most teams, so when they play each other, the road team is much more likely to cover than the home team.

I don’t think this line takes that into account, given that the Eagles are favored by 3.5 points. If the line was taking this into account, this line would suggest that the Eagles are at least 3.5 points better than the Redskins, which isn’t true. In fact, I don’t think there’s much difference between these teams at all. The Eagles are moving the chains at a 76% rate, as opposed to 78% for their opponents. The Redskins, meanwhile, are moving the chains at a 78% rate, as opposed to 79% for their opponents. Even before we get into the Eagles’ home struggles, this line is too high. Sure, Nick Foles is an upgrade over Michael Vick, but he’s not proven at home yet.

The Eagles are also in a few bad spots. One bad spot is as home favorites of 3.5 or less before a bye. Since 2002, home favorites of 1-3.5 are 16-39 ATS before a bye, including 2-15 ATS in a divisional matchup. This does make some sense. Small home favorites are generally comparable or slightly inferior to their opponent, which is the case here. Teams in that dynamic might just assume a victory at home going into a bye and completely overlook their opponent, which is not something you should be doing with a comparable opponent. As a result, not only do they rarely cover the spread, but they also lose the game outright more than 2 out of 3 times dating back to 2002. Being in a divisional matchup makes it worse.

The second bad spot the Eagles are in is a revenge game type spot. Teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 50-24 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the rematch. It makes sense. Matchups where the team who is favored is dependent on the location tend to be matchups between very even teams and very even teams tend to split the season series no matter what. If you’ve lost as home favorites, you have to win as road underdogs in this situation to split the season series. Teams do win as road underdogs at a .500 rate since 2002 (39-38) and an even higher percentage, as previously mentioned, about 2/3rds, cover the spread. The Eagles fell victim to this situation at home to the Giants a few weeks ago.

The Redskins, meanwhile, are in a great spot as road dogs after a road loss. Teams are 97-57 ATS in this spot since 2008 and teams cover at about a 65% rate historically in this spot, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. This is probably because teams tend to get used to being away from home. The Redskins’ season is essentially on the line here. They will have 10 days to get prepared for the Eagles, following a Thursday Night loss as favorites in Minnesota. They should not only cover, but win here. This is my Pick of the Week.

Washington Redskins 31 Philadelphia Eagles 24 Upset Pick +160

Pick against spread: Washington +3.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Commanders, Uncategorized

Last week: 24 (+1)

Record: 3-6

The Redskins are at 3-6, which is right where they were last season when they ripped off 7 straight wins and won the division. The difference this year is that their remaining schedule is harder and their team isn’t as good. Last season, they’re final 7 opponents finished 48-64. This year, their final 7 opponents currently are a combined 34-33. Robert Griffin is also not the same quarterback he was last year and their team is not dominating the turnover battle like they did last year, when they finished +17. The good news is they play in the easiest division in football and it won’t take 10 wins to win like last year, but I still have Philadelphia and Dallas slightly ahead of them.

Week 9 Studs

QB Robert Griffin

WR Pierre Garcon

LT Trent Williams

RT Tyler Polumbus

LG Kory Lichtensteiger

RG Chris Chester

LOLB Ryan Kerrigan

Week 9 Duds

MLB London Fletcher

CB David Amerson

CB Josh Wilson

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Washington Redskins at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Commanders, Uncategorized, Vikings

Washington Redskins (3-5) at Minnesota Vikings (1-7)

The Redskins won a crazy home game against the Chargers last week in overtime, but that game might really hurt them here this week. Teams are 3-16 ATS since 1989 on Thursday Night after an overtime game. It makes sense. Recovering from a longer game on a short week would obviously put you at a disadvantage. Teams usually don’t do well as favorites off of a home overtime win anyway, going 22-41 ATS since 1989 in that situation.

The Vikings aren’t a very good team, but the Redskins have a terrible defense that they can move the ball against and compete in this game. Christian Ponder completed 25 of 37 for 236 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception last week in Dallas against a weak Dallas defense. The Redskins allow opponents to move the chains at a 78% rate on the season. If Ponder, with Adrian Peterson, can move the ball well against the Cowboys in Dallas, he can do the same at home, where he’s been a lot better in his short career. It’s not a big play, but I expect the Vikings to win here over a tired Redskins team.

Minnesota Vikings 23 Washington Redskins 20 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Minnesota +2.5

Confidence: Low

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