Washington Redskins Potential Breakout Player of 2013: Pierre Garcon

The great thing about the NFL is that there are so many positions that every year, there is almost always at least one player who has a breakout year on every team, no matter how good or bad the team is. This is one part in a 32 part segment detailing one potential breakout player (rookies don’t count) for the 2013 NFL season on each NFL team. For the Washington Redskins, that player is wide receiver Pierre Garcon.

I debated whether or not Pierre Garcon qualified as a breakout candidate. After all, Garcon got a 5 year, 42.5 million dollar contract from the Redskins as a free agent last off-season. However, he did that without making a Pro-Bowl or even having a 1000 yard season. The Redskins took a major chance giving Garcon that kind of money, banking on his natural athleticism and skill set allowing him to break out as the X receiver in Mike Shanahan’s offense, as the #1 target out of the shadows of others in Indianapolis loaded receiving corps, with Robert Griffin leading a downfield throw based offense. Garcon was only 25 and that point and the Redskins were really expecting a breakout year from him.

Midway into the 1st quarter of the Redskins’ week 1 game against the Saints last year, the Redskins looked pretty smart. Granted it was very, very early in the season, but Griffin targeted Garcon on 4 of his first 5 throws, including an 88 yard touchdown, as Garcon had 4 catches for 109 yards and a touchdown midway through the first quarter of an eventual upset of the Saints in New Orleans, where they hadn’t lost all season in 2011. However, Garcon hurt his foot and left the game immediately following his touchdown and did not return to the game, playing only 8 snaps total.

Garcon would return for week 4 and week 5, but he would only catch 4 passes for 44 yards in those 2 games, struggling through his injury and would not return again until week 11. Garcon was still not healthy after returning, only playing in 306 of his team’s 445 snaps over those 7 games, not exactly what the Redskins were hoping to get from their #1 receiver. However, Garcon was still very productive, in spite of his more limited role, catching 36 passes for 480 yards and 3 touchdowns in those 7 games.

Overall on the season, Garcon had 633 yards on 215 routes run, good for 2.94 yards per route run, 2nd in the NFL among eligible wide receivers behind Andre Johnson. He was targeting 63 times, giving him a very impressive yard per target rate of over 10 per and with 63 targets on 215 routes run, he was by far Robert Griffin’s favorite target to throw to when he was on the field. Griffin was also very efficient when throwing to him, completing 69.8% of his passes for 10.0 YPA, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception, a QB rating of 116.7, 14th in the NFL among eligible wide receivers. It’s clear that Garcon has a ton of upside in his role in Washington’s offense.

Garcon’s issue remains injuries as his foot is still not 100% and in addition he had off-season shoulder surgery. However, the shoulder is expected to be a non-issue and his foot should be better than it was last season. Assuming he plays close to a full set of snaps and isn’t overly limited on the field by his foot, Garcon could have an incredibly productive season. Robert Griffin is expected to throw more and run less to protect himself from injuries so the Redskins figure to pass more than the 442 times they did last year. Garcon could easily end up as one of the league’s top-10 receivers and a Pro-Bowler in 2013.

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Washington Redskins 2013 Needs

The Redskins got to where they were this season by being aggressive. They were aggressive in trading away three 1st round picks and a 2nd round pick for Robert Griffin and then making him the week 1 starter immediately after. They were aggressive building their entire offense around him, creating one of the NFL’s several new innovative read option offenses. You could also say they were aggressive (though unconventional might be the better word), when they took Kirk Cousins in 4th round to be Griffin’s backup. Cousins played a key role in their playoff run, winning one game and leading a comeback in another after Griffin got hurt. They were also aggressive playing Griffin less than 100% down the stretch.

However, aggressiveness was ironically their eventual downfall. Up 14-0 in the wild card round, Robert Griffin tweaked that previous knee injury and the Redskins chose to leave him in the game. They didn’t score the rest of the way, losing 24-14, as Griffin did not look right. Worst of all, his leg gave out late in the 4th quarter and he had to be taken out. Doctors determined that he partially tore his ACL, LCL, and meniscus and that surgery would be needed. Griffin is a fantastic athlete, but he’s suffered the same ligament damage before and the Redskins are privately worried about not just his week 1 availability, but his long term outlook.

Obviously, in hindsight, taking Griffin out of the game before he reinjured himself would have been the right move, especially if they had done it at 14-0. Kirk Cousins would have been coming off the bench cold and seeing his first ever playoff action as a rookie, but he should have been able to preserve the win and, more importantly, preserve Robert Griffin.

However, I don’t disagree with the move the Redskins made. If it had worked out, Robert Griffin would have been seen as a tougher than nails hero and Mike Shanahan would have looked like a genius. Likewise, if Shanahan had pulled Griffin for Cousins and Cousins had blown the game, Shanahan would be ridiculed and Robert Griffin’s toughness could have been questioned.

We live in a results based hindsight news cycle. Most of the same people who said that Griffin should have been pulled also ridiculed Jay Cutler for sitting on the bench during the NFC Championship game a few years ago. You can’t have it both ways. Personally, I believe in toughing it out, which is why I support Shanahan’s decision. Cousins couldn’t have been trusted in that situation and you pulling your star in the middle of the biggest game of the season could have a demotivational effect on your team.

As for the Redskins in 2013, I believe they’ll privately prepare for Kirk Cousins to start at least the first few games of the season. Robert Griffin could begin the year on the PUP, which would cost him the first 6 weeks. Cousins has shown he’s capable on occasion, but he’s no sure thing. The Redskins will be getting several other key players back from injury, pass rusher Brian Orakpo and starter Adam Carriker will return on defense, while they should get more out of top receiver Pierre Garcon. However, not having Griffin out there or not having him 100% will hurt. The Redskins’ tremendous fumble luck won’t carry over in 2013 either (they recovered 20 of 29 fumbles in the regular season and scored 3 times off them). Given that, it’ll be tough for them to make the playoffs again in 2013.

Offensive Tackle

Jammal Brown missed the entire season with a hip injury. He hasn’t been the same since injuring that hip in 2009. Even when he has been on the field, he’s been terrible. Owed 3.5 million next season, he’s an obvious candidate for release. Tyler Polumbus, who played on the right side in Brown’s absence this year, was among the worst offensive tackles in the league. Out of 80 eligible offensive tackles, Polumbus ranked 77th on ProFootbalFocus last season.

Safety

Brandon Meriweather is their top safety, but he tore his ACL in November and was having trouble staying healthy even before that. He can’t be counted on. Neither can any of their other safeties. Madieu Williams, Reed Doughty, and DeJon Gomes aren’t very good and Williams is also a free agent. They need to add at least one new starter at safety this off-season.

Cornerback

Nickel cornerback Cedric Griffin is a free agent, while DeAngelo Hall might not be back either. He’s owed 7.5 million next season and is a rumored candidate for release, though he’s said he’d restructure to stay with the team. If either one of those two aren’t back, they’ll need to find a replacement because their in house options aren’t very good.

Middle Linebacker

Age appears to have finally caught up with London Fletcher, who graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 51st ranked middle linebacker out of 53. Owed 5.5 million in an age 38 contract year in 2013, he’s considering retirement and that might be the best thing for the Redskins because he’s not worth that money if he keeps playing like this, but I don’t know if they can really cut him either because he’s been there so long. If he’s not back, 2012 4th round pick Keenan Robinson is a potential successor, but they might want some more competition.

Tight End

Fred Davis tore his ACL mid-season and he’s a free agent this off-season anyway, as he was playing on the franchise tag in 2012. If he’s not brought back, they need another pass catching tight end. Replacement Logan Paulsen blocks well, but doesn’t do much in the passing game.

Rush Linebacker

Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo are a great duo when healthy, but Orakpo will be coming off a torn pectoral that cost him most of this season. Rob Jackson and Lorenzo Alexander split snaps in his absence, but both are free agents this off-season. They really need some depth and insurance for Orakpo.

Punter

Sav Rocca is a solid punter, but he’s coming off a torn MCL and he’s a free agent this off-season. The Redskins will either need to re-sign him or replace him.

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Seattle Seahawks at Washington Redskins: Wild Card Round Pick

For analysis on Seattle click here
For analysis on Washington click here

Unlike in past years, the Seahawks aren’t just a good home team. They’re a good team with a great home field advantage. After all, they do rank #1 in DVOA and weighted DVOA. However, they still have road losses against St. Louis, Arizona, Detroit, and Miami, as well as close calls against Carolina and Chicago, all 6 of whom missed the playoffs. The Seahawks are just 7-12 ATS as road favorites since 2005 and I like that Washington may feel slighted that no one is really talking about them to win this game. I think Seattle has a better chance to win this game, but I’m going to grab the 3 points for a small play. It would have to be all the way past the key line of 4 for me to play a significant play on the Redskins though.

Seattle Seahawks 20 Washington Redskins 19

Pick against spread: Washington +3 (-110) 2 units

Washington Redskins: Wild Card Round Power Rankings (#8)

I have the Redskins ranked higher than the Ravens because they beat them head-to-head and because the NFC is by far the better conference this year overall (AFC divisional winners are 0-6 against NFC playoff teams). However, I like the Ravens to advance further than the Redskins because of their competition. The Redskins have a very good team and are deserving NFC East Champions, but I don’t think they are on the same level as fellow NFC divisional winners Atlanta, San Francisco, and Green Bay, all 3 of whom they’d have to play on the road.

In fact, they don’t even get an easy home game to start things off. They open up as 3 point home dogs against the Seahawks. While the Vikings, Bengals, and Colts, the other 3 wild cards, are ranked as the 3 worst teams in these playoff Power Rankings, the Seahawks might have the best overall team in the league, ranking 1st in DVOA and weighted DVOA. The Redskins saving grace might be their home field advantage as the Seahawks are 3-5 away from their excellent home crowd this season, including losses to teams much worse than Washington like St. Louis, Miami, Arizona, and Detroit. That might not be enough to get the Redskins a playoff win however.

Projected fate: Lose to Seahawks in Wild Card round

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Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: Week 17 NFL Pick

Dallas Cowboys (8-7) at Washington Redskins (9-6)

The name of the game is simple for the Dallas Cowboys. If they lose, they go home. If they win, they win the NFC East. For the Redskins, it’s a little bit more complicated. They clinch the division with a win, same as with the Cowboys, but they can technically still make the playoffs if they lose, assuming an improbable sequence of events happens earlier in the day before this Sunday Night showdown. I don’t think that will, however, and either way, both teams will be treating this as a must win game as the prize for both teams is a home playoff game.

Assuming we were getting enough points, I was thinking of thinking the Cowboys here. A very good trend is on their side. Road dogs are 52-26 ATS trying to avenge a same season home loss as favorites. The logic behind this is simple: when the location of the game between two teams determines who is favored and who is not, that generally means those two teams are evenly matched and I’d say that’s about right with these two teams. When two teams are evenly matched, they tend to split the season series and if one team wins as dogs on the road, it generally evens out with the other team getting revenge and at least covering as dogs on the road in the next game (40-41 SU).

However, we’re just getting no line value with the Cowboys. These two teams are fairly even, but the Redskins are the better team. They rank 13th in net points per drive, 11th in DVOA, and 8th in weighted DVOA. Meanwhile, the Cowboys rank 17th, 14th, and 15th respectively. If you take the difference between the Redskins’ net points per drive and the Cowboys’, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 for home field, you get that the Redskins should be favored by 4.5, a figure that is pretty well supported by DVOA.

Furthermore, as bad as the Cowboys generally are in December, I can’t take them to win this game and that would be what I would be doing taking them plus a field goal. Tony Romo is 12-21 ATS after week 14 in his career, though slightly better, 9-12 ATS, as dogs. They’re also 11-6 ATS as road dogs since 2009 (while they struggle as home favorites). Still, I can’t pick them to win here. Games in which a team is a dog are generally a low pressure situations, which is where these Cowboys thrive, but this is far from a low pressure situation, so I have to lay the points. I really wish we were getting at least 3.5, but it’d have to be more than 4 for me to feel comfortable.

Public lean: Washington (50% range)

Washington Redskins 31 Dallas Cowboys 27

Pick against spread: Washington -3 (-110) 1 unit

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Washington Redskins: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

Last week: 9 (+0)

Record: 9-6

Net points per drive: 0.13 (13th)

DVOA: 7.5% (11th)

Weighted DVOA: 13.1% (8th)

Studs

QB Robert Griffin: 16 of 24 for 198 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, 2 throw aways, 2 batted passes, 3 drops, 105.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 4 of 25 drop backs (1 sack, 1 of 3, 2 throw aways)

RB Alfred Morris: Rushed for 91 yards (52 after contact) and a touchdown on 22 attempts, 5 broken tackles, caught 1 pass for 17 yards on 1 attempt

LG Kory Lichtensteiger: Did not allow a pressure on 25 pass block snaps, run blocked for 32 yards on 6 attempt

RG Chris Chester: Did not allow a pressure on 25 pass block snaps, run blocked for 15 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

RT Maurice Hurt: Did not allow a pressure on 25 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 1 attempt

WR Pierre Garcon: Caught 7 passes for 89 yards on 7 attempts on 25 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch

MLB Perry Riley: 8 solo tackles, 6 stops, 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 7 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 17 yards on 4 attempts

LE Jarvis Jenkins: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

LOLB Ryan Kerrigan: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 6 quarterback hurries on 51 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops, 1 penalty

Duds

MLB London Fletcher: 8 solo tackles, 4 assists, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle, allowed 9 catches for 82 yards on 11 attempts, 1 interception

FS Madieu Williams: Allowed 4 catches for 46 yards on 5 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 2 missed tackle, 1 sack on 1 blitz

FS Jordan Pugh: Allowed 1 catch for 18 yards on 1 attempt, 1 solo tackle, 2 missed tackles

RE Stephen Bowen: 1 quarterback hit on 41 pass rush snaps, no tackles

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Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 16 NFL Pick

Washington Redskins (8-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-10)

Some situational trends say that the Redskins are the right side here. Teams are 35-19 ATS as divisional road favorites before being divisional home favorites since 2002. Meanwhile, on the Eagles side, divisional home dogs are 23-38 ATS before being divisional road dogs since 2002. That being said, I feel like this is too many points for me to feel comfortable, especially with the public all over Washington.

There was no early line last week because of Griffin’s questionable status, so there’s no way to know if this is an overreaction line, but Cincinnati was just -4 in Philadelphia last week. The Bengals have the same record as the Redskins and won the head to head matchup in Cincinnati. I know the Bengals won by 21, but they actually trailed by 3 in the 3rd quarter before a ridiculous 4 turnover in 5 plays stretch by the Eagles, though I guess that’s just what the Eagles do. Again, the Redskins should be the right side, but this is way too many points on the road for me to be comfortable. We might have gotten a little carried away with the Redskins and because of that, the odds makers can boost the spread and know people will still take them, as has been the case.

Using net points per drive, we see that we do have significant line value with the Eagles. The Redskins rank 14th in net points per drive at 0.08, while the Eagles rank 27th at -0.47. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points to Philadelphia’s side for home field advantage, you get that Washington should be favored by just 3.5 points. DVOA supports this, but only somewhat as the Redskins and Eagles rank 11th and 27th respectively in DVOA, but 9th and 29th respectively in weighted DVOA. Washington is the pick, but it’s not a big play.

Public lean: Washington (80% range)

Sharps lean: WAS 22 PHI 8

Final thoughts: I guess I can put one more unit on Washington, though this is at -5.5 in the Supercontest. I wouldn’t go over a touchdown.

Washington Redskins 27 Philadelphia Eagles 16

Pick against spread: Washington -6 (-110) 2 units

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Washington Redskins: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

Last week: 8 (-1)

Record: 8-6

Net points per drive: 0.08 (14th)

DVOA: 7.1% (11th)

Weighted DVOA: 10.2% (9th)

In a complicated NFC, the Redskins outcome seems easiest to predict. All they have to do is beat Philadelphia and Dallas and they win the NFC East and the 4th seed, which I think they will. That sets them up with a playoff matchup against the Seahawks in the first round and as good as the Seahawks have been this year, they’ve already lost to St. Louis, Arizona, Detroit, and Miami on the road, so Washington’s winning streak could continue into the playoffs right into a rematch with the Falcons (who beat them by 7 in Washington earlier this year, in a game in which Robert Griffin got hurt). That would be an interesting one, but I think the home dominant Falcons would emerge victorious.

Studs

RT Jordan Black: Did not allow a pressure on 20 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 1 attempt

LT Trent Williams: Allowed 1 sack on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 30 yards on 7 attempts

CB Josh Wilson: Allowed 3 catches for 31 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist

CB DeAngelo Hall: Allowed 6 catches for 37 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 6 blitzes

ROLB Rob Jackson: 1 sack on 16 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 interception

Duds

LG Kory Lichtensteiger: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 42 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Perry Riley: Allowed 4 catches for 42 yards on 5 attempts, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns: Week 15 NFL Pick

Washington Redskins (7-6) at Cleveland Browns (5-8)

Robert Griffin is expected to be a true game time decision for this one and we won’t know for sure about his status until tomorrow morning. Lines are slowly starting to trickle in spite of this and if you had to ask me, I’d said it’s more likely than not that Robert Griffin plays. Normally, when a quarterback is a game time decision, he plays.

It’s only when a quarterback is ruled out in the week prior that he doesn’t play and this is such a huge game for the Redskins if they want to make the playoffs, I can’t see him sitting out. The fact that lines are already starting to trickle in is a good sign, especially since Washington is favored by 1 (they were favored by 2.5 a week ago). That suggests that the odds makers are fairly sure Griffin will play.

I’m going to make this pick as if I’m fairly sure Griffin will play, for that reason. We are getting some line value with the Browns, who are better than their 5-8 record would suggest. They are just -13 in points differential and they rank 16th in net points per drive at -0.03. The Redskins, meanwhile, rank 15th in net points per drive at -0.02. These teams are basically equal and if you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that Cleveland should be favored by those 2.5 points.

However, that doesn’t hold up to DVOA. Washington ranks 10th in DVOA, which takes things into account things like strength of schedule, and 11th in weighted DVOA. Cleveland, meanwhile, ranks 25th in regular and 20th in weighted DVOA. Cleveland is also in a bad spot as home dogs off a win as home favorites, a situation teams are 52-72 ATS in since 1989, the only trend that is relevant in this one.

Furthermore, I just don’t want to bet against Griffin right now and I don’t think the Browns are ready to win straight up against a team like the Redskins yet. They’ve hung with some good teams, but they need to win straight up to cover here. It’s only a small play because of the uncertainty of Griffin and it would rank near the bottom in any confidence pools, but the Redskins are the pick.

Public lean: ?

Final update: Griffin was surprisingly ruled out today and Kirk Cousins will start tomorrow. This line is now Cleveland -2. I like betting on good teams starting backup quarterbacks as they tend to give 110% to compensate and opponents tend to overlook them. Remember the Steelers beating the Ravens with Charlie Batch?

The Browns also have bigger things to worry about as they have trips to Denver and Pittsburgh next on the agenda. Favorites are 35-72 ATS since 2008 before being touchdown dogs and 7-20 ATS before being touchdown dogs in two straight. Teams are also 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites in the last 2 seasons and the Redskins go to Philadelphia next week, when they should have Griffin back. When the opponent will next be dogs, teams are 116-59 ATS in that spot since 2008.

It’d be a bigger play, but I feel like the 4.5 point line movement from last week (the Redskins were -2.5) is not enough to compensate for Griffin’s loss, especially considering the Browns looked pretty impressive last week, blowing out the Chiefs. Griffin might be the league’s most valuable player outside of Brady and Manning this year and the Redskins supporting cast isn’t very good. It’d be a big play at +4 or more, but not at +2. The Redskins should be the right side though.

Final update II: Now at +4, I like the Redskins a lot more.

Washington Redskins 20 Cleveland Browns 17 Upset Pick +180

Pick against spread: Washington +4 (-110) 3 units

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Washington Redskins: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

Last week: 8 (+0)

Record: 7-6

Net points per drive: -0.02 (15th)

DVOA: 5.3% (10th)

Weighted DVOA: 9.2% (11th)

Robert Griffin should be good to go this week against the Browns. With games against the Browns, Eagles, and Cowboys in their final 3, they will be favored in all 3 of their last 3 games, while the Giants will only be favored in 1. Chalk gets them this division at 10-6 and even if they win out and the Giants pull one upset against either the Ravens or Falcons, the Redskins will still win the division on their divisional record tiebreaker. That would get them a home playoff game, in which they’d likely be favored. It might sound weird, but chalk gets this team to the divisional record, which I why I have them 8th.

Studs

QB Robert Griffin: 15 of 26 for 246 yards and a touchdown, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 2 drops, 105.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 17 of 34 drop backs (3 sacks, 5 scrambles, 4 of 9, 1 touchdown, 1 drop, 1 hit as thrown), rushed for 25 yards on 7 attempts, 1 broken tackle, 1 fumble

RB Alfred Morris: Rushed for 122 yards (93 after contact) and a touchdown on 23 attempts, 7 broken tackles, 1 fumble

LOLB Ryan Kerrigan: 2 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback hurries on 19 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 3 stops

Duds

RT Tyler Polumbus: Allowed 1 sack and 5 quarterback hurries on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for -2 yards on 2 attempts

C Will Montgomery: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 66 yards on 8 attempts

LG Kory Lichtensteiger: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 25 yards on 4 attempts

TE Logan Paulsen: Caught 1 pass for 8 yards on 1 attempt on 30 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 penalty, allowed 3 hurries on 9 pass block snaps

CB DeAngelo Hall: Allowed 5 catches for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5 attempts, 1 penalty, 5 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

FS Madieu Williams: 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 5 missed tackles, 1 quarterback hit on 2 blitzes, was not thrown on

RE Stephen Bowen: Did not record a pressure on 20 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

TE Niles Paul: 2 kickoff returns for 37 yards, 1 fumble, did not catch a pass on 1 attempt on 2 attempts

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