Cowboys

Defensive Scheme Changes: Falcons, Saints, Browns, Eagles, Cowboys

stevenlourie Browns, Cowboys, Eagles, Falcons, News, Saints

4-3 to 3-4

Atlanta Falcons

This one isn’t confirmed, but Falcons’ defensive coordinator Mike Nolan is a 3-4 guy. He did a great job in his first season with the Falcons, coaching them to a top-5 scoring defense, despite having to run a 4-3, because he wisely realized they didn’t have the personnel for an immediate switch to a 3-4. Still, you have to figure he’s going to want to go to a 3-4 eventually and going into his 2nd year with the team, there are rumors, though nothing confirmed, that he may be taking them to a 3-4 base this season. They already ran a lot of 3-3 looks last year, as they frequently used sub packages.

If there were to go to a 3 man line full time in 2013, it would resemble the one from their 3-3 front. Jonathan Babineaux would be a 3-4 defensive end and Peria Jerry, Corey Peters, or Vance Walker could play the other 3-4 end spot, though Peters was terrible last year and Walker is a free agent. Either way, they do need a true nose tackle, something this roster lacks. There’s a reason they ranked 29th against the run in 2013. If he’s even re-signed, Walker is their biggest tackle on the roster at about 305, which isn’t going to cut it.

Going to the linebacking corps, defensive ends John Abraham and Kroy Biermann would move to the 3-4 outside linebacker spot. Whether or not they will fit the new position remains to be seen, but either way, they need help at the position. Abraham turns 35 in May, while Biermann is a marginal and inconsistent starter, and their depth is suspect at best. Outside linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Stephen Nicholas would move inside to middle linebacker, though Nicholas should just be a base package run stuffer and someone else should come in for him in sub packages. Akeem Dent is a candidate, but it also may be someone not currently on their roster.

New Orleans Saints

After ranking among the worst in the NFL in every single defensive category, including 31st in opponent’s scoring, the Saints have rightfully fired defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. They apparently want to do anything they can to change things up as they are reportedly interested in hiring a defensive coordinator with a 3-4 background to run that scheme in New Orleans. As would have been the case if they had stayed in a 4-3, they still need more talent upfront.

Cameron Jordan might benefit the most from the scheme change, as the collegiate 3-4 end had been struggling as a 4-3 end in the NFL. Opposite him, however, they have nothing and someone like Sheldon Richardson will be an option at 15th overall in the 2013 NFL Draft. At nose tackle, expect Brodrick Bunkley and Akiem Hicks to hold down the fort. Both could also play end as well, I suppose, but that will still be a need.

Like 3-4 defensive end, rush linebacker is now a huge need. Will Smith will almost definitely be cut. Not only is he overpaid and not very good anymore, but he’s a terrible fit for a 3-4. That leaves the Saints with nickel rushers Martez Wilson and Junior Galette at the position. They’ll bring someone else in. Someone like Dion Jordan or Ezekiel Ansah will also be an option at 15th overall. Expect them to take a 3-4 defensive end and outside linebacker, in either order, with their first 2 picks of the 2013 NFL Draft. Curtis Lofton and David Hawthorne, meanwhile, are obvious fits at middle linebacker and should be able to have bounce back years in the new scheme. Jonathan Vilma probably would have been cut either way, but this pretty much seals the deal.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns made the opposite transition a few years ago, switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3 after the 2010 season, with Pat Shurmur coming in. That should help ease the transition. However, they do have a bunch of new front 7 players. Jabaal Sheard is their best pass rusher and I don’t think he’ll have much of an issue moving from 4-3 end to 3-4 outside linebacker. They’ll need a complement for him, opposite him, but they would have needed another pass rusher regardless. Expect them to target rush linebackers at #6 overall.

The reason they need another pass rush is because Juqua Parker is a 35 year old free agent this off-season. He split snaps opposite Sheard last year with Frostee Rucker and frankly they weren’t very good either. Rucker, however, may be a better fit as a 3-4 end. Between him, Billy Winn, John Hughes, Phil Taylor, and Ahytba Rubin, they should be set on the defensive line. That’s five guys who can play significant snaps, including two, Rubin and Taylor, who have the size to play on the nose.

At inside linebacker, D’Qwell Jackson will remain, as he did the last time they used a 3-4. Either Craig Robertson, Kaluka Maiava, or James-Michael Johnson will play next to him. Chris Gocong is another candidate, provided he isn’t cut, owed 4.45 million in 2013, coming off an Achilles tear that ended his 2012 season. Rush linebacker is really their only need area up front, even for depth purposes. They look pretty set at all other positions, but rush linebacker is probably the most important one.

Philadelphia Eagles

Like the Saints, the Eagles have not formally hired a defensive coordinator, but new Head Coach Chip Kelly is a believer in the 3-4 scheme and they are expected to hire a 3-4 defensive coordinator, likely San Francisco defensive backs coach Ed Donatell. They will need to wait until after the Super Bowl to do so, but that’s probably the reason why they have yet to hire anyone.

The scheme change might be best for Fletcher Cox and Cullen Jenkins, who will both move both from defensive tackle to defensive end. Both are natural fits for the position and Jenkins has some experience playing there from his days in Green Bay. Mike Patterson, Cedric Thornton, and Derek Landri will provide solid depth, though the latter is a free agent this off-season. Antonio Dixon has to be thrilled about the position change as well. He’s a talented player in the right scheme, but he was lost in Philadelphia’s wide nine last year, which is why he was cut and not brought back until Jim Washburn was fired and the Eagles scrapped the wide nine. He looks like a natural fit at 3-4 nose tackle, but they’ll have to bring in competition.

The biggest risk is changing schemes for them is that their edge rushers might not fit. Brandon Graham was one of the most efficient pass rushers in the NFL last year and dominated once given a chance to start down the stretch last year. Trent Cole, meanwhile, is coming off a down year, but in the 6 years prior, he was one of the most consistently excellent defensive ends in the NFL. It might not be a good idea to mess with success. One thing the Eagles do have, however, is plenty of depth at rush linebacker. Vinny Curry was a 2nd round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft and Phillip Hunt and Darryl Tapp have played well in limited action, though the latter is a free agent this off-season.

Their expected middle linebackers are DeMeco Ryans and Mychal Kendricks. Ryans stays in his 2012 spot in the middle, while Kendricks moves from the outside. Those two probably had different reactions to finding out they’d be changing schemes. Ryans was nowhere near his normal self in Houston in a 3-4 in 2011, which is why he got traded to the Eagles. Kendricks, meanwhile, struggled as a rookie, but perhaps a change to a 3-4 will get him turned around. He played in a 3-4 in college, playing both inside and outside. The Eagles don’t have any major needs in the front 7, with the exception of competition for Dixon, but they didn’t really have any to begin with.
3-4 to 4-3

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys are making the opposite move this off-season, going from years of a 3-4 back to a 4-3. While I don’t understand hiring Monte Kiffin if he’s not going to run his signature Tampa 2 coverage scheme, I like the move to a 4-3 for the Cowboys. All 3 of their talented non-rush linebackers, Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, and Dan Connor, will be able to be on the field at the same time, while Lee and Carter will be able to play in space more often. Jay Ratliff is a better fit in a 4-3 than a 3-4 on the nose, though after his recent arrest, it’s questionable if he’ll be brought back next season. Jason Hatcher is tentatively expected to play defensive tackle next to him, but he is a bit of a tweener in a 4-3.

DeMarcus Ware will move to 4-3 defensive end, which is not as risky as moving an edge rusher from a 3-4 to a 4-3 because most edge rushers played in a 4-3 in college, as Ware did. I have no doubt he’ll be able to get to the quarterback regardless of the scheme. Their biggest issue is at defensive end opposite Ware. Anthony Spencer is not expected to be retained as a free agent because the Cowboys don’t have a lot of cap space. Fellow free agent Victor Butler is an option, as he’s been solid in limited action throughout his career. They also have Tyrone Crawford, a 2012 3rd round pick who might be a better fit in a 4-3 than a 3-4. Hatcher is also an option, but that would leave them with just Marcus Spears, Sean Lissemore, and Jay Ratliff inside, assuming the latter is even retained. They could add an end through the draft at some point.

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Dallas Cowboys 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Cowboys

Another year, another Cowboys December meltdown. This year the script was a little bit different. Entering the month of December at 5-6, it didn’t look like there would be anything for the team to choke away, but three straight wins put them in control of their own destiny with two games to go. Even with a week 16 loss, the Giants’ late season struggles allowed the Cowboys to still control their own destiny heading into a “win and you’re in” week 17 clash with the Redskins. However, at the end of the day, the Cowboys strong start to December only served to get their fans hopes up, as the team missed the playoffs for the 3rd straight season and for the 4th time in 5 years.

Tony Romo was much better than he normally was in December this year, playing very well in the three wins, including two upset wins over the Steelers and Bengals, to get them to 8-6. Even their week 16 loss to the Saints was way more on the defense than Romo, who led them back from down two touchdowns in the 4th quarter to send it to overtime, where the defense gave it right back. Through the first 4 games of the month, Romo was 103 of 155 for 1328 yards, 10 touchdowns, and an interception, but he completely melted down against Washington, going 20 of 37 for 218 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 3 awful, crushing interceptions. Romo is now 16-22 in the months of December and January and 39-16 in all other months of the season.

Still, calls for Romo to be benched are ridiculous. He’s led the team to at least 8 wins in every season as a starter, except for 2010, when he missed 10 games with injuries. He’s still a top-15 NFL quarterback and fans of teams like Arizona, Kansas City, and Jacksonville would kill to have him rather than the rotating door of crap they’ve had in recent memory. I still think he could win a Super Bowl if everything around him were right, but right now it’s not.

That can be blamed on Jerry Jones, the Cowboys’ owner/GM who has made numerous mistakes in building this team over the past few years. He even admitted himself that if the GM were anyone other than himself, he would have fired him by now. He should take some of his own advice and at least hire someone to do the day to day work of a GM. He could still allow himself the final call on decisions, but he’s not qualified to hold the kind of power he currently holds. 71 in October, Jerry Jones is on the path to becoming the next Al Davis.

Guard

The Cowboys made two head scratching decisions at guard last off-season, signing Nate Livings to a 5 year deal to play left guard and signing Mackenzy Bernadeau to a 4 year deal to play right guard. Livings was one of the worst guards in the league in 2011, while Bernadeau was an inexperienced former 7th round pick that no one else saw as a starter. Livings actually played very well this season, but Bernadeau played as expected. There’s been some talk of him moving to center, though I don’t know how much that will help. Either way, they need a new starter at right guard.

Center

Here’s why Bernadeau could move to center. Phil Costa was one of the worst starting centers in the NFL in 2011 and in 2012 he barely played thanks to injuries. They could use a new starter here as well. They really need to shore up the interior of their offensive line. Ryan Cook played alright this season in Costa’s absence, but I don’t know if he can be counted on.

Offensive Tackle

Yeah, they need help in this part of the offensive line too. After a strong 2010 season, the Cowboys rewarded left tackle Doug Free with a 4 year, 32 million dollar contract with 17 million guaranteed, even though he was only a one year starter. He proved to be a one year wonder. He struggled at left tackle in 2011 and was moved to right tackle this year, in hopes of turning things around.

He didn’t turn things around. In fact, he was worse. He was one of the worst tackles in the league, allowing 6 sacks, 4 quarterback hits, and 42 quarterback hurries, while committing a league leading 15 penalties. He split time with Jeremy Parnell down the stretch, who didn’t impress either. Free ranked 66th out of 80 eligible tackles on ProFootballFocus. Owed a non-guaranteed 7 million in 2013, he could easily be cut and replaced with another right tackle.

Defensive End

The Cowboys have hired Monte Kiffin to coach their defense, which is a stupid move. They spent big resources on Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne last off-season, but both fit a man press scheme better than Kiffin’s signature Cover 2. Kiffin says he won’t force the scheme on the cornerbacks, but why hire Kiffin if you aren’t going to run the Tampa 2? Kiffin is a good coordinator, but this is a terrible fit and it looks like Jerry Jones only did it for the attention and his big name.

That being said, Kiffin will move their front 7 to a 4-3 alignment, which fits their personnel much better. Jay Ratliff is a much better fit at 4-3 defensive tackle than 3-4 nose. All 3 of their talented non-rush linebackers, Sean Lee, Bruce Carter, and Dan Connor, will be able to be on the field at the same time, while Lee and Carter will be able to play in space more often. DeMarcus Ware and Jason Hatcher will shift to defensive end and defensive tackle respectively just fine.

That just leaves the Cowboys needing another end opposite Ware. Anthony Spencer is a candidate, after a breakout 2012, but he’s a free agent and the Cowboys don’t have the cap space to get into a bidding war for him. Many in the know don’t think he’ll be back. Talented rotational edge rusher Victor Butler is also an option, but also a free agent. They could use an early pick on a young bookend for Ware.

Running Back

DeMarco Murray has suffered a major injury in each of his first two seasons in the NFL. This is no surprise. Injuries were the reason he fell to the 3rd round despite his talent. Backup Felix Jones is also injury prone and very inconsistent as well. He can’t be relied on as anything more than a sparingly used change of pace back and he’s a free agent this off-season anyway. Neither Phillip Tanner nor Lance Dunbar showed much in limited action this season. They could use a mid-round pick on some depth here.

Safety

The Cowboys entered 2012 with the proven Barry Church as one of their starting safeties. He barely played this year after tearing his Achilles, but Jerry Jones still thought it would be a good time to give him a 4 year contract even though he wasn’t a pending free agent. He’ll obviously go into 2013 as a starter, but I question if that’s wise. At the very least, they need to add some depth because Danny McCray and others who stepped in for Church this year were awful.

Wide Receiver

Miles Austin has really struggled with injuries over the past two years. He’s owed 6.7 million next year and the cap crunched Cowboys can save 5 million on the cap by cutting him early in the off-season. If they do that, they should add another receiver in the mix. Kevin Ogletree, Dwayne Harris, and Cole Beasley had some good moments this season, but it’s unclear if any of them are starter material. Ogletree will probably get the first crack, but more competition wouldn’t hurt.

Kick Returner

The Cowboys were 29th in the NFL, averaging just 20.6 yards per kickoff return.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, Commanders, Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys (8-7) at Washington Redskins (9-6)

The name of the game is simple for the Dallas Cowboys. If they lose, they go home. If they win, they win the NFC East. For the Redskins, it’s a little bit more complicated. They clinch the division with a win, same as with the Cowboys, but they can technically still make the playoffs if they lose, assuming an improbable sequence of events happens earlier in the day before this Sunday Night showdown. I don’t think that will, however, and either way, both teams will be treating this as a must win game as the prize for both teams is a home playoff game.

Assuming we were getting enough points, I was thinking of thinking the Cowboys here. A very good trend is on their side. Road dogs are 52-26 ATS trying to avenge a same season home loss as favorites. The logic behind this is simple: when the location of the game between two teams determines who is favored and who is not, that generally means those two teams are evenly matched and I’d say that’s about right with these two teams. When two teams are evenly matched, they tend to split the season series and if one team wins as dogs on the road, it generally evens out with the other team getting revenge and at least covering as dogs on the road in the next game (40-41 SU).

However, we’re just getting no line value with the Cowboys. These two teams are fairly even, but the Redskins are the better team. They rank 13th in net points per drive, 11th in DVOA, and 8th in weighted DVOA. Meanwhile, the Cowboys rank 17th, 14th, and 15th respectively. If you take the difference between the Redskins’ net points per drive and the Cowboys’, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 for home field, you get that the Redskins should be favored by 4.5, a figure that is pretty well supported by DVOA.

Furthermore, as bad as the Cowboys generally are in December, I can’t take them to win this game and that would be what I would be doing taking them plus a field goal. Tony Romo is 12-21 ATS after week 14 in his career, though slightly better, 9-12 ATS, as dogs. They’re also 11-6 ATS as road dogs since 2009 (while they struggle as home favorites). Still, I can’t pick them to win here. Games in which a team is a dog are generally a low pressure situations, which is where these Cowboys thrive, but this is far from a low pressure situation, so I have to lay the points. I really wish we were getting at least 3.5, but it’d have to be more than 4 for me to feel comfortable.

Public lean: Washington (50% range)

Washington Redskins 31 Dallas Cowboys 27

Pick against spread: Washington -3 (-110) 1 unit

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Dallas Cowboys: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys

Last week: 16 (+1)

Record: 8-7

Net points per drive: -0.07 (17th)

DVOA: 0.3% (14th)

Weighted DVOA: 1.1% (15th)

Studs

LT Tyron Smith: Did not allow a pressure on 45 pass block snaps

LG Nate Livings: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt

QB Tony Romo: 26 of 43 for 416 yards and 4 touchdowns, 4 drops, 1 throw away, 1 spike, 1 hit as thrown, 1 batted pass, 108.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 45 drop backs (2 sacks, 3 of 6, 1 touchdown, 1 hit as thrown)

WR Dez Bryant: Caught 9 passes for 224 yards and 2 touchdowns on 12 attempts, 10.6 YAC per catch

SS Eric Frampton: Did not allow a pressure on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles

Duds

RB DeMarco Murray: Rushed for 40 yards (13 after contact) on 11 attempts, 1 fumble, caught 4 passes for 51 yards on 6 attempts, 2 drops

WR Miles Austin: Caught 4 passes for 45 yards and a touchdown on 8 attempts on 45 pass snaps, 3.8 YAC per catch, 2 drops

FS Charlie Peprah: Allowed 2 catches for 66 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 2 missed tackles

FS Gerald Sensabaugh: Allowed 1 catch for 8 yards on 2 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

MLB Alex Albright: Allowed 2 catches for 8 yards and 2 touchdowns on 3 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

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New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Saints

New Orleans Saints (6-8) at Dallas Cowboys (8-6)

The Cowboys entered December at 6-6 after a rough month of November, traditionally a strong month for them, and it looked unlikely that they would be unable to choke again this December, mostly because there would be nothing to choke away. However, after two straight wins, they are at 8-6 and in control of their own destiny, which means that once again, they’ll have a chance to choke this December, starting with this game against the Saints.

I’m only half kidding when I say this. The Cowboys are not good as front runners. That’s why they’re 9-18 ATS as home favorites and why they always choke late in December. Here, they are home favorites and of course it’s also December. Tony Romo is 12-20 ATS in week 14 or later in his career, including 3-8 ATS as home favorites. They were able pull off two upsets to get themselves back into the playoff race, but now that they’re home favorites and something is actually expected of them as they control their own destiny for a playoff spot 2 weeks later, they probably won’t get it done.

Speaking of that win last week, they might be a little overconfident off of it. Teams are 13-29 ATS since 1989 as home favorites off a home win of 1-6 points as dogs. It’s always important to remember where teams were the week before and not overreact to one game. The Cowboys certainly didn’t play great against the Steelers, who are now 5-16 ATS as non-divisional road favorites under Mike Tomlin (including losses in Oakland and Tennessee this year). The Steelers also probably weren’t taking that game that seriously as they still control their own destiny for a playoff spot with a loss. Plus, here’s an interesting trend, teams are 20-41 ATS off a win against the Steelers since 2002.

The Cowboys might also have one eye on next week. I know the Cowboys have to beat both the Saints and the Redskins, so they won’t completely overlook the Saints here, but which game do you think they’ll be more focused for, a home game against a 6-8 team or a road rematch against a divisional rival who dominated them at home a few weeks ago? For the Saints, this is their Super Bowl, a chance to play spoiler. All they have left is a home game against the Panthers. There’s a trend for that. Dogs before being favorites are 108-67 ATS since 2011, including 118-61 ATS since 2008 as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs.

Besides, as the Saints showed last week with their blowout win over the Buccaneers, they’re not to be overlooked. In fact, numbers say the Saints are a better team than the Cowboys. The Saints rank 12th in net points per drive at 0.14, while the Cowboys rank 18th at -0.06, while this line says these two teams are equal, because 2.5 points is standard for home field, not even taking into account the Cowboys’ home struggles.

If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (average amount of drives per game), and add 2.5 for home field, you get that this should be a pick em, again not even taking into account the Cowboys’ home struggles. DVOA backs this up as the Saints rank 15th in DVOA and 14th in weighted DVOA, while the Cowboys rank 16th and 17th respectively. We’re getting points with the better team in the better situation. It’s a big play on the Saints.

Public lean: New Orleans (50% range)

Sharps lean: NO 19 DAL 15

Final thoughts: No change.

New Orleans Saints 31 Dallas Cowboys 24 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: New Orleans +2.5 (-110) 4 units

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Dallas Cowboys: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys

Last week: 19 (+3)

Record: 8-6

Net points per drive: -0.06 (18th)

DVOA: -1.9% (16th)

Weighted DVOA: -4.0% (17th)

Heading into December at 6-6, after a rough November, traditionally a strong month, it didn’t look like the Cowboys would choke it away in December again, because they didn’t really have anything to choke away. Now at 8-6, controlling their own destiny for a playoff spot, they can have another late season choke and I think that’s what happens. This is a terrible front running team, as evidenced by both their late season history and their terrible track record as home favorites and I think they lose to the Saints this week for that reason, before losing in Washington week 17, because I just think the Redskins are a much better team.

Studs

LG Nate Livings: Did not allow a pressure on 47 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 40 yards on 2 attempts

RT Doug Free: Did not allow a pressure on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 2 attempts

CB Brandon Carr: Allowed 6 catches for 60 yards on 12 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Anthony Spencer: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 35 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 2 stops

Duds

LT Tyron Smith: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 47 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 3 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts

SS Danny McCray: 6 catches for 124 yards on 6 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Dallas Cowboys: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Steelers

Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6) at Dallas Cowboys (7-6)

After the Steelers’ loss last week, I was expecting them to be dogs here, especially after the Cowboys big win as dogs last week. There was no early line last week because Ben Roethlisberger’s status was still in doubt so I didn’t know really what to expect in terms of this line. I was expecting them to be dogs, though dogs of less than 3, but I still was expecting to take them for a big play for a variety of reasons.

The first is that the Cowboys have really struggled as home favorites since they opened the new Cowboy Stadium in 2009, going 9-18 ATS. They’ve already lost to the Redskins and Bears in this situation this year and barely beat the Buccaneers and the crappy Eagles and Browns. Meanwhile, the Steelers are very good in the Mike Tomlin era off a loss as favorites, as well coached teams generally do. They are 13-7 ATS, including 3-0 ATS as dogs.

Meanwhile, teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011 and the Steelers host the Bengals next week and will be favored. The Cowboys also suck after week 13 in the Tony Romo era, going 11-20 ATS in week 14 or later. They won in this spot last week, but they were playing purely with emotion after what happened the day before with Josh Brent and Jerry Brown. Now that they’ve had a week for it to settle in, they could really struggle like the Colts did after they beat the Packers and like the Chiefs did last week. The Steelers are also healthier than they were last week with LaMarr Woodley returning and David DeCastro making his season debut. The Cowboys could be missing top receiver Dez Bryant.

However, it appears the Steelers are favored by 1.5, which changes things. The Cowboys are now home dogs, a situation they are actually 2-1 ATS in since 2009. The Steelers are 5-15 ATS as non-divisional road dogs in the Mike Tomlin era. The Cowboys are also now the ones who are dogs before being favorites as they are dogs here, but they are expected to be home favorites for the Saints next week. The line value has also shifted in their favor because the real line is a pick em, based on the net points per drive method. That does hold up to DVOA, as well. Finally, the Steelers are publicly backed (though not a huge public lean) and the public always loses money in the long run.

I’m still taking the Steelers. They are still good off a loss as favorites, even as favorites. The Cowboys still struggle to cover at home. They may be good as home dogs, but it’s a limited sample size. They also still struggle in December and they could be in a bad spot now that the Josh Brent and Jerry Brown situation has settled in. They may be missing Dez Bryant as well.

The Steelers, on the other hand, might be healthier than they’ve been all season. This will be the first time all season that Ben Roethlisberger, Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, and LaMarr Woodley will play in the same game. Ike Taylor may be out, which hurts, but this is still the healthiest they’ve been all season sadly. The real line doesn’t take that into account, so we still may be getting line value with the Steelers. While the Steelers struggle as non-divisional road dogs, they are 1-1 ATS in that situation off a loss. This is a must win off a loss, so I can’t see them overlooking the Cowboys like they might in another situation. Teams are 99-62 ATS since 2002 as non-conference favorites before being divisional favorites.

Finally, while the Steelers aren’t dogs, the line is still below 3 and since I would have loved the Steelers as dogs, it doesn’t make sense to just take the Cowboys because the Steelers are now favorites of less than 3. It’s just not a significant play anymore. This reminds me of Giants/Cowboys a few weeks ago, when I wanted to take the Giants for a big play, expecting them to be dogs, but they ended up being road favorites. I still took them anyway for a small play and they covered.

Public lean: Pittsburgh (60% range)

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Dallas Cowboys 17

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -1.5 (-110) 2 units

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Dallas Cowboys: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys

Last week: 17 (-2)

Record: 7-6

Net points per drive: -0.07 (17th)

DVOA: -2.1% (17th)

Weighted DVOA: -3.3% (18th)

The Cowboys got an emotional win on this road this week, but they could be flat off that game at home, where they generally struggle, for an angry Pittsburgh team this week. They then host New Orleans and once again, the Cowboys don’t do well at home, before a trip to Washington, who is on fire right now. 7 or 8 wins seems reasonable and a serious playoff run unlikely for a team that generally struggles in December.

Studs

CB Brandon Carr: Allowed 1 catch for 11 yards on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Anthony Spencer: 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 22 pass rush snaps, 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 7 stops

LE Tyrone Crawford: 3 quarterback hurries on 14 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

Duds

LT Tyron Smith: Allowed 6 quarterback hurries on 48 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

LG Nate Livings: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 46 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 6 yards on 4 attempts

C Ryan Cook: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 48 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 22 yards on 7 attempts

RG Mackenzy Bernadeau: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 48 pass block snaps, run blocked for 1 yard on 2 attempts

RT Doug Free: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 38 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

WR Miles Austin: Caught 4 passes for 46 yards on 10 attempts on 47 attempts, 2.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

SS Danny McCray: 3 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 missed tackles, allowed 2 catches for 28 yards on 3 attempts

P Brian Moorman: 5 punts for 165 yards, 1 inside 20, 1 return for -3 yards, 33.6 net yards per punt

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Dallas Cowboys at Cincinnati Bengals: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Bengals, Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys (6-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-5)

Someone check me for a concussion because I like the Bengals this week. It’s not that the Bengals are bad or anything, but I just haven’t picked them yet this year. It’s nothing against them or anything and I haven’t really been missing out as they’re just 6-6 ATS, but for whatever reason, I’ve never seen Cincinnati as the right side yet this season.

This week, I do. It’s not so much about the Bengals as it is about the Cowboys. The Cowboys really are not a very good team this year and this line says these two teams are comparable, which I don’t find to be true. The Cowboys really struggle as home favorites since Cowboys stadium opened in 2009, going 9-17 ATS. The opposite happens somewhat when they are road dogs, but not a ton as they are 10-6 ATS since 2009 as road dogs.

However, Tony Romo is awful in week 14 or later, going 10-20 ATS in his career. The Bengals, meanwhile, are 4-12 ATS as home favorites since 2009, but 3-4 ATS since Andy Dalton took over. That doesn’t sound like much, but it’s definitely worth noting that they always kill non-playoff teams. Last year, they went 9-0 against non-playoff teams (and 0-8 against playoff teams).

This year, I believe they are 6-2 against non-playoff teams and 1-3 against teams I think will make the playoffs (they beat Giants/Redskins, one of which will make the playoffs, and lost to Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Denver). The Cowboys definitely would seem to fall into the non-playoff category, so the Bengals should be able to win. This is a pretty small line, so that matters.

Speaking of this line, as I mentioned, it’s too small. These two teams are not equal. Net points per drive backs this up. The Bengals rank 7th at 0.48, while the Cowboys rank 17th at -0.08. If you take the difference and multiply by 11 (the average number of drives per team per game) and add 3 points for home field, you get Cincinnati -9.

DVOA seems to support this as the Bengals rank 12th, but 9th in weighted DVOA, which gives higher weight to more recent games. The Cowboys, meanwhile, rank 16th, but 19th in weighted. They’re just not a very good team and they’re not going to get better now that it’s December. We also get to fade a public dog, however small, by taking Cincinnati. It’s a small play on the Bengals.

Public lean: Dallas (50% range)

Sharps lean: DAL 19 CIN 10

Final thoughts: I’m dropping down to 1 unit. Like Chiefs/Panthers last week, I have no idea how the death of teammate Jerry Brown in a drunk driving accident with teammate Josh Brent as the driver will affect this team. There’s no one way tragic events effect teams, so I’m dropping down because I have zero confidence in either side now.

Final thoughts II: For purely confidence pools purposes, I’m going to go with the Cowboys money line in this one. I don’t love either side because we don’t know how the Cowboys’ tragedy will effect this one, but I’d rather have Dallas +155 than Cincinnati -3 in what should be a true toss up. It also feels better to be on the side of the Cowboys after what happened yesterday and on a small pick that doesn’t really matter and that counts for something.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: Dallas +3 (-110) 0 units

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Dallas Cowboys: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys

Last week: 17 (+0)

Record: 6-6

Net points per drive: -0.08 (17th)

DVOA: -2.0% (16th)

Weighted DVOA: -3.9% (19th)

Studs

QB Tony Romo: 22 of 27 for 302 yards and 3 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 118.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 11 of 31 drop backs (1 scramble, 2 sacks, 5 of 8, 1 touchdown, 1 throw away)

LG Nate Livings: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 31 yards on 5 attempts

WR Dez Bryant: Caught 6 passes for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns on 6 attempts, 5.8 YAC per catch

TE Jason Witten: Caught 6 passes for 108 yards on 8 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 4.8 YAC per catch

LOLB Anthony Spencer: 2 quarterback hurries on 25 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 6 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

LT Tyron Smith: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 1 attempt

RT Doug Free: Allowed 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 32 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts

RG Mackenzy Bernadeau: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 32 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 13 yards on 6 attempts

SS Danny McCray: Allowed 3 catches for 41 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 7 solo tackles, 2 assist, 3 stops, 3 missed tackle

MLB Dan Connor: Allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 1 attempt, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

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