Cowboys

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Eagles

Philadelphia Eagles (3-8) at Dallas Cowboys (5-6)

2 weeks ago, the Cowboys stood at 4-5, but many people still gave them a chance to win this division. The Giants weren’t looking great and the Cowboys, having played a very tough schedule in their first 9 games, had a very easy schedule down the stretch with 5 of 7 at home, including at least 4 where they almost definitely were going to be home favorites. However, they barely beat Cleveland, needing overtime to come back and win after going down 13-0 early and then they lost to Washington, both as home favorites. Now the Redskins at 5-6 look like the team that’s more likely to take down the Giants, if anyone can.

The truth is, the Cowboys just don’t play well as home favorites. Since opening the new Cowboys Stadium in 2009, they are 9-17 ATS as home favorites, including just 2-7 ATS as divisional home favorites. Call it the Cowboys Stadium curse, call it whatever you want, but it’s prominent. Tony Romo struggles in general as large favorites in his career anyway, going 13-20 ATS as touchdown favorites and 6-10 ATS as double digit favorites. He’s been even worse in the division, going 1-7 ATS as touchdown divisional favorites and 0-4 ATS as double digit divisional favorites.

The Eagles, meanwhile, tend to thrive in this situation in the Andy Reid era. They’re 48-33 ATS as dogs, including 37-21 ATS on the road as dogs and 16-9 ATS as divisional road dogs. As touchdown dogs, he’s 13-6 ATS, including 7-2 ATS in the division. As double digit dogs, he’s 5-1 ATS, including 3-0 ATS in the division. For what it’s worth, he’s been double digit dogs against the Cowboys twice in his career as Head Coach of the Eagles and the Eagles won them both straight up.

Of course, these aren’t typical Andy Reid times. He’s generally been an accomplished Head Coach, but right now he’s 3-8, having lost 7 in a row and he’s basically a dead man walking employment wise. The Eagles are so banged up with injuries too and they very well may have quit. However, even if they have quit, they did show some signs of life on Monday Night against the Panthers, probably because they didn’t want to be embarrassed on National TV. Well, this one is on National TV too and against a divisional rival. This game is like their Super Bowl so if they were to ever give effort, this would be the week.

As bad as they’ve been, I don’t think the Cowboys deserve to be double digit favorites against anyone. The net points per drive method of computing line value doesn’t seem to think so either. The Cowboys rank 20th in net points per drive at -0.12 (net points per drive being offensive points divided by total drives minus defensive points allowed divided by total drives). The Eagles are 26th at -0.47. If you take the difference and multiply by 11 (average drives per game) and add 3 points for homefield, you get around -6.5, which is around where this line probably should be.

That line checks out with DVOA (which is net points per drive based, but takes other things into account and strength of schedule). The Cowboys ranks 15th and the Eagles 27th. It’s a little different than where they rank in net points per drive (the Cowboys have had the tougher schedule and the better special teams), but I don’t think you can say the Cowboys deserve to be 10 point favorites. This line shifted 2 points from last week, when it was at -8, which I don’t understand. The Cowboys lost as favorites and the Eagles finally were competitive in a game. Why did the line shift? At the very least, this line is 2-2.5 points too high.

Also, as bad as the Eagles are, no team has ever covered fewer than 3 times over the course of a season in at least the past 5 seasons. That makes sense because the whole idea behind spreads to try to make things even, make so even bad teams can cover, and make life harder for odds makers. The Eagles have either covered 1 or 2 times all season this season, depending on what line you had for their week 4 game (they beat the Giants by 2 and the line was -1.5 in some places and -2 in some others). If history is any indication, the Eagles will probably cover at least once more this season. I don’t see any time better than this one, with all of the trends in their favor in a game that should be their Super Bowl. It’s not a big play though because, I mean, it’s the Eagles.

Public lean: Dallas (50% range)

Sharps lean: PHI 5 DAL 4

Final update: Again, not shocked people stayed away from this game. The shitty Eagles or the Cowboys as double digit favorites? I have a little bit more confidence in Philadelphia than most people because all the trends say Philly will cover and I think they’ll actually give a damn this week on National TV against a divisional opponent as huge underdogs, but you couldn’t get me to make a big play on this one.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Philadelphia Eagles 17

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +10 (-110) 2 units

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Dallas Cowboys: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys

Last week: 12 (-5)

Record: 5-6

Net points per drive: -0.13 (20th)

DVOA: 0.9% (15th)

Weighted DVOA: 1.1% (15th)

Tier 5: Teams many predicted to make the playoffs at the beginning of the season, but that are long shots now

Studs

WR Dez Bryant: Caught 8 passes for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns on 11 attempts on 67 pass snaps, 10.6 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

CB Morris Claiborne: Allowed 1 catch for -2 yards on 3 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

LOLB Anthony Spencer: 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 24 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 4 assists, 5 stops

RE Jason Hatcher: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops

Duds

LG Nate Livings: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 4 quarterback hurries on 67 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 11 yards on 3 attempts

RG Derrick Dockery: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 67 pass block snaps

WR Cole Beasley: Caught 7 passes for 68 yards on 13 attempts on 59 pass snaps, 5.8 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 2 interceptions when thrown to

MLB Ernie Sims: Allowed 2 catches for 38 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

SS Danny McCray: Allowed 3 catches for 97 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts, 1 solo tackle, 2 missed tackles

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Dallas Cowboys: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys

Last week: 12 (+0)

Record: 6-4

If the Cowboys win at home this week against the 4-6 Redskins and the Giants lose to the Packers, these two teams will be tied at 6-5 and the Cowboys be the favorite because they have the much easier schedule. The Cowboys host Philadelphia, go to Cincinnati, then host Pittsburgh and New Orleans, and then they go to Washington. The Giants, meanwhile, will go to Washington, host New Orleans (two games the Cowboys have two), but then they go to Baltimore and Atlanta (two games the Cowboys have already played), before heading home for Philadelphia (a same game). Every year there are 5 new playoff teams (17 straight years). If that’s going to happen again this year, Dallas pretty much has to make the playoffs.

Studs

RG Derrick Dockery: Did not allow a pressure on 69 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 2 yards on 2 attempts

WR Dez Bryant: Caught 12 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown on 15 attempts on 63 pass snaps, 2.5 YAC per catch

RE Jason Hatcher: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hurry, and 3 quarterback hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 5 stops

Duds

RT Doug Free: Allowed 3 sacks and 3 quarterback hurries on 69 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 4 attempts

C Mackenzy Bernadeau: Allowed 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 69 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 5 yards on 3 attempts

LT Jeremy Parnell:  Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 58 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Commanders, Cowboys

Washington Redskins (4-6) at Dallas Cowboys (5-5)

People really seem to have soured on the Cowboys after their near loss to the Browns last week. This line was at Dallas -6 last week and now it’s at -3 and the public is still pounding the underdog. The fact that the public is pounding the underdog is very important because the public has lost a lot of money over the past 3 weeks with 2 losing weeks, including a massive losing week in week 9. They’ll eventually make that money back, so I wouldn’t want to bet a public dog this week. Public dogs covering especially hurt the odds makers because they need favorites and dogs to cover evenly, but also to make money. The public tends to prefer favorites, but when they prefer a dog, it’s normally a risky bet, especially given what’s happened in the last few weeks. The odds makers always win in the long run.

I also think the line movement is a huge overreaction. Yes, the Cowboys barely beat the Browns, but so has everyone who has played them. Cincinnati beat them by just a touchdown in Cincinnati and then lost to them in the rematch in Cleveland. The Colts only beat them by 4 in Indianapolis and could have easily lost if Josh Gordon didn’t drop an easy touchdown. The Giants trailed 14-0 to them early and beat them by 14 in a game that was a lot closer than the finally score.

They went down to the final play with the Ravens in Baltimore and, then in the rematch in Cleveland, they actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, who were coming off a bye. The problem was their 5 scores were all field goals and the Ravens scored 3 touchdowns and a field goal. Still, that game was not as close as the final score. They’re not getting run out of the stadium by anyone, so I don’t understand why this line moved 3 points just because the Cowboys played them close. I know the Redskins also blew out the Eagles in the last week, but is that really that impressive? The Eagles suck. The Cowboys blew them out too and in Philadelphia. I love betting against overreactions.

Besides the fact that the Browns always play teams close, the Cowboys’ near loss last week wasn’t that surprising. The Cowboys struggle as home favorites expect for on Thanksgiving (more on that later) and teams tend to struggle as favorites before being divisional favorites on Thursday Night. It’s very, very possible they just overlooked the Browns because they had this game 4 days later. They won’t overlook the Redskins.

As you can expect, we’re getting some line value with the Cowboys. It’s not a ton, but using the rate of sustaining drives differential method, we get a real line of Dallas -4 and using the yards per play differential method, we get a real line of Dallas -3. The Cowboys are the better team, but this line says they’re even (3 points for home field advantage).

Speaking of home field advantage, Tony Romo has never lost a November home game, including 5 Thanksgiving home games. He’s only once failed to cover at home on Thanksgiving (4-1 ATS). The Cowboys tend to struggle as home favorites in general (9-16 ATS since 2009, including last week), but in November and on Thanksgiving in general, they typically do really well. I also don’t really trust Robert Griffin on the road on a short week. As talented as he is, it’s really tough for young teams to travel on a short week. I like the Cowboys for a significant play. I also like the under because the under is 72-53 on Thursdays since 1989.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against spread: Dallas -3 (-110) 3 units

Total: Under 48 (-110) 1 unit

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Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Browns, Cowboys

Cleveland Browns (2-7) at Dallas Cowboys (4-5)

As many of you who read these picks regularly know, I love using yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential to compute real line. Yards per play differential measures how well a team does on an average play (offensive or defensive) and overrates teams that get a lot of big plays, but frequently have drives stall.

Rate of sustaining drives differential is a stat I created myself to fix that aforementioned problem that measures team’s offensive and defensive efficiency on a per set of downs basis, meaning how often can you convert 1st and 10 for a subsequent set of downs or a score and how often can you prevent your opponent from doing so. It underrates teams that get a lot of big plays, so those two work together perfectly. I do this in order to find line value and overrated and underrated teams.

Well, when doing this on this game, I found out that this line is exactly where it should be. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Dallas -7, while the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of Dallas -9. Average those two out and you get Dallas -8, which is exactly where this line is. Furthermore, the other way I like to handicap games is by using situational trends. However, the only two I could find for this game cancel each other out.

First, non-divisional home favorites are 54-37 ATS since 2002 after winning as divisional road favorites. The Cowboys won in Philadelphia as road favorites last week and now are favored at home for Cleveland. However, favorites just 23-36 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night game since 1989, including 14-23 ATS before being divisional favorites. The Cowboys host the Redskins next week on Thursday Night in their annual Thanksgiving game.

That being said, I do like the Browns for 3 reasons. The first is that I love to bet against the public. The public always loses in the long run and if you were to bet the opposite of them for a full season, you’d most likely always make money (you definitely would if not for the juice). I don’t follow it that strictly, but it’s something I use in handicapping. Two, the Cowboys struggle as home favorites, excluding Thanksgiving games, going 7-14 ATS at home as favorites since the start of the 2009 season, again with the exclusion of Thanksgiving games, when they normally fare well.

Finally, the Browns are better than their record. They have 7 losses, but none of them have been by more than 14 points, including just 1 by more than 10. As dogs of more than 4, they are 2-1-1 ATS, only failing to cover in a 14 point loss to the Giants as 8.5 point dogs. They actually held a 14-0 lead early in that one and lead up until right before halftime in a game that was closer than the final score.

Meanwhile, against Baltimore a few weeks ago, they lost by 10, but actually scored more frequently than the Ravens, but their 5 scores were all field goals, thanks to terrible play calling, while the Ravens got 3 touchdowns and a field goal. The only game they lost by more than 7 that wasn’t closer than the final score was week 3, a 24-14 loss to the Bills. They should be able to hang within 8 of the Cowboys in this one, but the key word is should.

I’d make this a bigger play if I was confident they wouldn’t shoot themselves in the foot, blow an early lead, implode in field goal range and lose this game by 10-14 when really they deserved to lose by 3-7. Dallas is also my survivor pick of the week as I can’t really see them losing to the Browns here in Dallas. Tony Romo is 20-3 in November and the NFC is 25-16 against the AFC this year. It was close between them and Denver this week, but I gave the tiebreaker to Dallas because Denver is a better team and will be more valuable in the future (4 games against Kansas City, Oakland, and these Browns).

Sharps lean: CLE 18 DAL 4

Final update: Sharps love Cleveland. I get it, but I don’t trust Pat Shurmur enough to make this a significant play. Besides, Joe Haden, the Browns’ top defensive player, is expected to be a game time decision.

Dallas Cowboys 21 Cleveland Browns 16 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Cleveland +8 (-110) 2 units

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Dallas Cowboys: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys

Last week: 17 (-5)

Record: 4-5

I said anything could happen in the Dallas/Philadelphia game. Apparently me believing in the Cowboys again qualifies. They play 5 of their last 7 at home. After having the league’s toughest schedule through 8 games, they have the league’s 2nd easiest over their final 7 and that includes Pittsburgh, who just lost their starting quarterback and might be the only above average team left on their schedule. They don’t have to play the Giants like they did last year. They rank 10th in yards per play differential and 12th in rate of sustaining drives differential. They haven’t turned the ball over in the last 2 weeks and their turnover differential is improving, something I said would probably happen. If they can go +0 in turnovers or better the rest of the way, they can win 9 or 10 games and the division.

Studs

QB Tony Romo: 19 of 26 for 209 yards and 2 touchdowns, 1 throw away, 1 batted pass, 101.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 29 drop backs (3 sacks, 7 of 9, 1 throw away)

CB Orlando Scandrick: Allowed 5 catches for 31 yards on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 penalty, 6 solo tackles, 2 stops

CB Brandon Carr: Allowed 4 catches for 56 yards on 7 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Anthony Spencer: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 29 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops

WR Dwayne Harris: 4 punt returns for 97 yards and a touchdown

Duds

LT Tyron Smith: 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 29 pass block snaps

C Ryan Cook: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 6 attempts

CB Morris Claiborne: 5 penalties, allowed 4 catches for 44 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

RE Jason Hatcher: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 41 pass rush snaps, 2 penalties, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Eagles

Dallas Cowboys (3-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-5)

Last week, I enjoyed a relatively successful week. I hit 4 of my 6 big plays and went 9-5 overall, but it could have been a lot better. I hit my first 4 big plays and if I had hit my last 2, I would have enjoyed my best week ever, rather than just a strong week. I also was undefeated straight up until the Giants lost to the Steelers and I was actually thinking that maybe I could go undefeated 14-0 straight up, in which case I would have been kicking myself for not parlaying all the money lines and making a serious chunk of change. Instead I finished 11-3 and I was kicking myself for another reason.

I lost my last 2 plays, Dallas +4 and Philadelphia +3. The first one was the most agonizing as the Cowboys outplayed the Falcons and had a strong chance to cover blown by Orlando Scandrick making a series of boneheaded moves. The 2nd one didn’t feel good either. The Eagles weren’t nearly as close as the Cowboys were to covering, but the game went a similar way for them. Lots of yards and first downs, but only 13 points. The 447 yards they totaled were the 9th most since 1989 that a team has had and still scored 13 or less.

Angry from those two games, I tweeted (@stevenlourie) “Probably gonna start making Philadelphia and Dallas unbettable. They suck in a way statistics can’t quite capture.” I followed that up by tweeting, “Of course I tweet that right before I realize Eagles and Cowboys play next week. That game should be…something…” I hate overreacting to one week like that, but it was so true, so it wasn’t really an overreaction. I use statistics heavily when making these picks and I had been burned on several occasions with both of these teams, especially Philadelphia.

However, breaking down the game and finding the applicable trends early this week, I began to really like the Cowboys. I felt they were the least “sucky” of the two teams. They did have the statistical advantage (real line for this one is PK for the yards per play differential method and Philadelphia –1 for the rate of sustaining drives differential method). While these two teams do both suck in a way that statistics can’t measure, I thought maybe that would cancel out when they play each other and the statistics will be spot on.

The Cowboys held the edge in the trends as well. At +1, they were road dogs off a road loss. Road dogs off a road loss are 78-47 ATS since 2008. Dogs before being favorites are 89-50 ATS since 2011. Meanwhile, on Philadelphia’s side, they were divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs (in Washington next week). Teams are 14-47 ATS in that spot since 2002. They were divisional favorites off a 14+ MNF loss. Teams are 2-10 ATS in that spot since 2002. Finally, teams are 57-82 ATS as favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs.

Well, what happened? The action started pouring in on Dallas and the line shifted. Philadelphia is now +1.5 at home and all of trends I referenced are moot. Maybe it was a blessing in disguise because I shouldn’t have been considering laying significant money on either of these teams in a game where literally anything can happen (and I mean anything). Maybe the Cowboys will prove I should have bet on them even as favorites.

Either way, I’m back to making these two teams unbettable this week. This is my lowest confident pick of the week and if I did zero unit picks, this would be one. I’m going to take the Eagles because I like getting Andy Reid as a dog. He’s 48-30 ATS as a dog since he took over in 1999, though just 11-10 ATS as a home dog. In a must win game where either coach could get fired at the end of the season if they lose here, I trust Reid and his 9 lives as a Head Coach more.

We’re also getting a chance to fade the public by taking Philadelphia, as Dallas is a heavy public lean. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.

Rather than putting 1 unit on the spread, I’m putting it on the money line (+110) because it’s not worth the extra 20 cents to get protection against a 1 point Dallas loss, but remember, this pick goes last in any confidence pool and would be a zero unit pick if I did them. Literally anything can happen in this one. I’m actually looking forward to it.

Public lean: Dallas (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Philadelphia covers)

Sharps lean: DAL 13 PHI 1

Final update: Sharps seem to like Dallas, but I still have no clue.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 Dallas Cowboys 19 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +1.5 (-110) 0 units

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Dallas Cowboys: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys

Last week: 17 (+0)

Record: 3-5

The Cowboys will stop underachieving once they fire Wade Phillips…oh wait… they did that 2 years ago. In an interview shown before Sunday Night Football, Owner/GM Jerry Jones said that if the GM were anyone other than him, he as Owner would have fired him by now. However, the next day, he said he will never step down. In between, the Cowboys lost yet another winnable game, this time on the road against the undefeated Falcons thanks, in large part, to Orlando Scandrick making several terrible plays.

Scandrick is the cornerback that Jones signed to a 5 year, 26 million dollar contract with 10 million guaranteed in the 2011 offseason, despite only having 11 mediocre starts under his belt. I doubt any team would have given him 10 million total on the opening market the following offseason, let alone guaranteed. This year, he’s a reverse cornerback as the Cowboys brought in Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne to boot him from the starting lineup.

Jones did a similar thing with safety Barry Church this season, signing him to a smaller deal, but still overpaying him after 3 career starts and while he was on IR. Meanwhile, Jones’ prized Head Coach Jason Garrett, who he paid big money to keep as the coach in waiting, is really struggling with play calling, which is why their offense looks so much better in the no huddle. Jones is very slowly becoming the next Al Davis, an ancient GM/Owner who should have stopped making football decisions years ago. It would be in his best interest to hire a real GM to assist with personnel moves. He could still have the final say if he wanted, but it’s becoming increasingly obvious that he’s in over his head.

Studs

LT Tyron Smith: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 39 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 3 yards on 2 attempts

QB Tony Romo: 25 of 35 for 321 yards and a touchdown, 1 thrown away, 1 batted pass, 2 drops, 109.7 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 36 drop backs (1 sack, 5 of 7, 1 touchdown)

ROLB DeMarcus Ware: 2 sacks, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 33 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Jason Hatcher: 5 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

NT Jay Ratliff: 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 24 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

P Brian Moorman: 4 punts for 182 yards, 3 inside 20, 2 returns for 6 yards, 44.0 net yards per punt

Duds

RT Doug Free: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 0 yards on 2 attempts

LG Nate Livings: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 39 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for -3 yards on 1 attempt

WR Dez Bryant: Caught 1 pass for 15 yards on 3 attempts, 0.0 YAC per catch

FS Gerald Sensabaugh: Allowed 3 catches for 36 yards on 3 attempts, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist

SS Danny McCray: 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles, allowed 3 catches for 51 yards on 5 attempts

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Dallas Cowboys: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#17)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys

Last week: 16 (-1)

Record: 3-4

The good news for the Cowboys is that they rank 8th in yards per play differential and 7th in rate of sustaining drives differential. The biggest issue, by far, has been turnover differential so far for them, as they have a turnover differential of -11, 2nd worst in the NFL. The good news is that turnover differentials are incredibly inconsistent, as seen here. Tony Romo, specifically, has an interception rate of 4.6%. Despite his reputation as a turnover machine, his interception rate was only 2.8% coming into the season. In fact, 13 is the most he’s had in a season since 2008, and it’s been 7 games. That will regress to the mean going forward. I’m actually impressed they were able to keep it so close with the Giants despite losing the turnover battle by 4. Don’t count them out yet.

Studs

RG Mackenzy Bernadeau: 1 quarterback hurry on 69 pass block snaps, run blocked for -3 yards on 3 attempts

TE Jason Witten: Caught 18 passes for 167 yards on 23 attempts on 63 pass snaps, 2.6 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

WR Miles Austin: Caught 9 passes for 133 yards on 16 attempts on 66 pass snaps, 5.1 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

CB Morris Claiborne: Allowed 3 catches for 15 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackle, 1 assist, 2 stops

NT Jay Ratliff: 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 27 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 5 stops, 1 missed tackle

RE Jason Hatcher: 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurry on 22 pass rush snaps, 5 assists

Duds

QB Tony Romo: 36 of 62 for 437 yards, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions, 1 throw away, 1 spike, 1 drop, 69.5 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 21 of 62 drop backs (4 sacks, 6 of 17, 2 interceptions, 1 throw away)

RB Felix Jones: Rushed for 19 yards (22 after contact) and a touchdown on 13 carries, 1 fumble, did not catch a pass on 3 attempts, 1 interception when thrown to

LG Nate Livings: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hits on 69 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 3 attempts

C Ryan Cook: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 69 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 7 yards on 4 attempts

RT Doug Free: Allowed 6 quarterback hurries on 69 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for -1 yard on 2 attempts

WR Kevin Ogletree: Didn’t catch a pass on 2 attempts on 45 pass snaps

FS Gerald Sensabaugh: 1 solo tackle, 2 missed tackles, allowed 2 catches for 28 yards on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection

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New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Giants

New York Giants (5-2) at Dallas Cowboys (3-3)

This line opened as Cowboys -1 and I was ready to make a big play on the Giants for several reasons. For starters, in the Tom Coughlin era, they are 39-21 ATS as a dog. Also in the Tom Coughlin era, they are 49-25 ATS on the road and 34-38 ATS at home. This shouldn’t surprise anyone who knows anything about this team. They play their best when people don’t believe in them and that’s often the case when they’re road dogs. Vice versa, they have a reputation for falling flat when expectations are high.

The 3rd reason has to do with the 1st half/2nd half disparity in the Tom Coughlin era, with regards of halves of the season. In the first 8 games of a season in the Tom Coughlin era, they are 52-19 SU, as opposed to 27-37 SU in the 2nd half of the season. Even last year, when they won the Super Bowl, they started 6-2, but finished 3-5 to end up at 9-7. In 2007, their first Super Bowl year, they did the same thing, starting 6-2 before finishing 4-4 to end up at 10-6.

Their schedule this year suggests they could have that type of year once again. After they play the Cowboys, the Giants host Pittsburgh, go to Cincinnati, go on a bye, host Green Bay, go to Washington, host New Orleans, go to Atlanta, go to Baltimore, and host Philadelphia. However, while the Cowboys opened as 1 point favorites, they are now 2 point dogs, a 3 point in week swing and a 4 point swing from when they were -2 last week.

The reason for that is the injury to middle linebacker Sean Lee. Lee is one of the best linebackers this year and was playing out of his mind this year. Only San Francisco’s NaVorro Bowman ranks higher at middle linebacker on ProFootballFocus than Lee. Losing him for the year will definitely hurt, but I don’t know if it’s worth a 3 point line movement by itself. That type of line movement is normally reserved for injuries to quarterbacks. It’s also worth noting that the public is still pounding the Giants.

In spite of that, I won’t be switching my pick to the Cowboys. I’ll simply be dropping units down to 1 unit on the Giants. Lee’s absence will hurt and the Giants are still on the road and in the first half of the season. Besides, the Giants are 17-7 ATS in the Tom Coughlin era as road favorites, surprisingly. And as much as I hate betting on a heavy public lean, it’s worth noting that the line movement is consistent with the action, so there’s no threat of a trap line. Besides, as I’ve mentioned, I love favorites this week because eventually that disparity between dogs and favorites (dogs are 63-39 ATS this year) will close. Neither dogs or favorites have finished over 10 games above .500 over the course of a whole season in at least the last decade.

Public lean: Oakland (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Kansas City covers)

Sharps lean: NYJ 18 DAL 8

Final update: One of just 4 clear sharps leans this week. I’m going to add a unit on the Giants. I like the Giants as road favorites a lot (17-7 ATS) and like favorites in general this week.

New York Giants 31 Dallas Cowboys 27

Pick against spread: NY Giants -2 (-110) 2 units

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