Cowboys

Dallas Cowboys extend S Barry Church

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Cowboys, Offseason Moves 2012

If you’re wondering who Barry Church is, don’t feel bad. He’s a 2010 undrafted free agent who has made 4 career starts and is currently on IR after tearing his Achilles week 3. Apparently, the Cowboys felt it was urgent to give him a 4 year extension worth 12.4 million with 3.9 million guaranteed before actually making sure a player who less than 3 years ago went undrafted could actually play. I don’t get this move at all. I get that they see him as a starter in 2013 once he returns from injury, but at least make the guy prove it first. He’s not an unrestricted free agent until 2014.

They made a similar move signing one time future starter Orlando Scandrick to a 5 year, 27 million dollar extension worth 10 million guaranteed before he proved anything in 2011. He struggled to nail down a starting job and the Cowboys gave up on him before the 2012 season, signing Brandon Carr to a 50 million dollar contract and trading their 1st and 2nd rounders to move up to grab Morris Claiborne so Carr and Claiborne could start for years to come, leaving Scandrick as a depth corner in sub packages. They may be making a similar mistake here, albeit with less money.

Grade: D

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Dallas Cowboys: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys

Last week: 15 (-1)

Record: 3-3

The Cowboys haven’t been playing well lately, but they get the Giants in Dallas this week and if they win, they’ll hold the season series and be tied with the Giants in the loss column. However, they’ll have to do it without middle linebacker Sean Lee, one of the league’s best linebackers, who is done for the year after having toe surgery. They’re a contender and one who grades out well in the important statistics, ranking 5th in yards per play differential and 7th in rate of sustaining drives differential, but right now I have them just out of it in the loaded NFC. There could be several 9 or even 10 win teams in the NFC who don’t make it in.

Studs

QB Tony Romo: 24 of 34 for 227 yards, 1 touchdown, 4 drops, 104.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 6 of 36 drop backs (1 scramble, 2 of 5, 1 drop)

LG Nate Livings: Did not allow a pressure on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

P Brian Moorman: 4 punts for 197 yards, 2 inside 20, 4 returns for 4 yards, 48.3 net yards per punt

Duds

LT Tyron Smith: Allowed 5 quarterback hurries on 37 pass block snaps, run blocked for 8 yards on 3 attempts

WR Dez Bryant: Caught 2 passes for 14 yards on 3 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 0.5 YAC per catch, 1 drop

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Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Panthers

Dallas Cowboys (2-3) at Carolina Panthers (1-4)

Why does it seem like no matter who is coaching the Cowboys, they seem to continue to make the same dumb mistakes? Last week, they dominated throughout essentially, but were frequently penalized, something that’s been an issue for them all year and dating back to last year. They had trouble getting the plays off and had to burn several timeouts. Still, Dez Bryant had a chance for a game tying 2 point conversion, but he dropped it. The Cowboys then recovered the onside kick, but mismanaged the game clock, forcing Dan Bailey to kick from 51 instead of possibly from closer and he predictably missed, giving Baltimore the 2 point victory.

Coming off of that type of loss, it’ll be very interesting to see how they respond to playing the 1-4 Panthers. Most likely, it won’t be positively. Teams are 54-78 ATS as favorites after losing as dogs before being dogs, 17-30 ATS when the next game is divisional. Next week, they play the Giants. That game will be in Dallas, so Dallas will not be dogs, but the logic remains the same. Why would the Cowboys focus on the Panthers with the Giants coming up next? They’ll probably just view this as a chance to get an easy victory and get back on track before they play a real team.

For Carolina, this could be their Super Bowl. They’re coming off a bye, sitting at 1-4, and no one really thinks much of them anymore. Remember, however, this was a popular playoff pick before the season and one of their own players, Ryan Kalil, took out a newspaper ad to promise they would win the Super Bowl. They have an awful lot of pride and won’t just roll over like some other 1-4 teams might.

People who read this frequently know I love to go on and on about yards per play differential. Well, I have another metric that I think works well with yards per play differential, which I’ll go to in a second. First, if you take the difference between Dallas’s yards per play differential and Carolina’s, divide by .15 and add 3 points to Carolina’s side for home field advantage, you get a line of Carolina -1, which suggests 3 points of line value with the Panthers.

One issue I noticed with using solely this metric, which a lot of bettors do, is it puts too much value on teams that get a lot of big plays, but can’t sustain drives (or conversely, teams that don’t allow a lot of big plays, but can’t get off the field defensively). Think about it. You pass for 30 yards and then gain no yards on your next 3 plays and have to punt. That’s 7.5 yards per play, which is incredibly impressive, but you didn’t sustain a drive. So I’ve essentially created a new statistic called, rate of sustaining drives, not to replace the traditional metric, but to see if any teams are much better in one than the other. The Panthers are a perfect example of the type of team yards per play differential overrates. They’re 10th in that statistic, but just 29th in this new metric.

Basically, how I created it is I took first downs and divided it by first downs + turnovers + punts + failed 4thdowns. Basically, what it essentially measures is, on any given 1st and 10, how often does a team get another 1st down or sustain the drive. Turnovers (whether traditional or on downs) and punts are obviously failures to achieve 1st and 10. This measures first downs divided by chances at a first down (first downs + failures to achieve 1st and 10).

You can also do this for the defense, how often they can get the opposing team off the field on any given 1st and 10. The statistic is in the form of a percentage and you can subtract the offensive one from the defensive one to get the differential. For example, Dallas is at +2.7%, while Seattle is at -10.5%. The difference between the percents is 13.2, divide by 1.5 this time (which conveniently works very well with the numbers) and add 3 points either way for home field and you get a line of Dallas -6, so we’re not really getting line value either way. I also wish Carolina wasn’t missing top cornerback Chris Gamble, but this is still a small play on the Panthers.

Public lean: Dallas (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Carolina covers)

Sharps lean: DAL 16 CAR 8

Final update: No change.

Carolina Panthers 27 Dallas Cowboys 24 Upset Pick +110

Pick against spread: Carolina +2 (-110) 2 units

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Dallas Cowboys: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#15)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys

Last week: 12 (-3)

Record: 2-3

Well, at least Jason Garrett didn’t ice his own kicker this time. However, he repeated one mistake from that infamous icing his own kicker game. In that game against Arizona, I would argue the biggest mistake was not making sure the Cowboys could run another play to at least try to get in better field position for the field goal, something they failed to do once again this week. They’ve got plenty of talent, but it seems like no matter who the Head Coach is, they can’t stop shooting themselves in the foot.

Studs

C Phil Costa: Did not allow a pressure on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 91 yards on 19 attempts

RB DeMarco Murray: Rushed for 93 yards (57 after contact) on 14 attempts, 4 broken tackles, 1 catch for 4 yards on 1 attempt

TE Jason Witten: Caught 6 passes for 88 yards on 7 attempts on 37 pass snaps, 5.5 YAC per catch

MLB Sean Lee: 4 solo tackles, 3 assist, 1 stop, 3 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 9 blitzes, allowed 2 catches for 41 yards on 3 attempts

Duds

WR Kevin Ogletree: Did not catch a pass on 3 attempts on 24 pass snaps, 1 interception when thrown to, 4 penalties

CB Brandon Carr: Allowed 5 catches for 79 yards on 6 attempts, 3 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

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Dallas Cowboys at Baltimore Ravens: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Ravens

Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (4-1)

Since their impressive win over the Patriots week 3, the Ravens have fallen flat in back-to-back games against inferior opponents, winning by just 6 at home against Cleveland and winning by just 3 in Kansas City last week. Does this mean they’re not as good as they once looked? Not necessarily. They won 12 games and were within a “Billy Cundiff” of sending the AFC Championship game to overtime, but they still lost to Jacksonville, Tennessee, San Diego, and Seattle, all inferior teams they should have beaten. They also had 3 and 6 point home wins respectively against Arizona and Cleveland. They just seem to play down to the level of their competition, but that doesn’t make them a bad team.

While the play down to the level of their competition, they also play up to the level of their competition. With the exception of the aforementioned loss to the Patriots in the AFC Championship game, they were 7-0 against playoff teams last year. This year, they’ve played two likely playoff teams, New England and Philadelphia, splitting the pair, but it’s worth noting that their close loss to the Eagles was on the road. They’ve lost just one home game to a playoff team in the last 2 seasons, a 3 point home loss to the Steelers in 2010. Assuming the Patriots make the playoffs this year, they are 8-1 at home against eventual playoff teams in the last 2 plus seasons, so they should bounce back against a quality opponent this week.

I would say the Ravens’ struggles in the past 2 weeks make them underrated, but Dallas might be equally underrated. When last we saw them, they were getting blown out on Monday Night Football, but they were playing a very good opponent and hung pretty even in the yards per play differential category. They lost because they lost the turnover battle 5 to 1 and because 2 of their 5 turnovers were returned for 6. There’s not really a skill in returning turnovers for touchdowns. The numbers show it’s more luck than anything. It’s more about where you are when you get the turnover.

Besides, turnover differentials even out on a week to week basis. If you look at every possible turnover differential that a team can have, teams in each group tend to average a turnover differential of about +0.0 the following week, no matter how good or bad they were in this area the following week. You can see more, here. That’s why I prefer to look at yards per play differentials. Yards tend to be more consistent on a week to week basis.

The Cowboys actually rank 2nd in the league in this category, though that is slightly skewed because it doesn’t take into account penalty yardage, something that’s not inconsistent on a week to week basis and an issue the Cowboys have had for over a year. They are, however, also healthier now as Jay Ratliff will make his season debut and Anthony Spencer will return from injury. Baltimore, meanwhile, ranks 3rd. Only .1 yard per play separates these two teams, so the “real” line should be Baltimore -2.5. It’s at -3.5, so it’s pretty insignificant line value, so it’s tough to call either team overrated or underrated. Besides, the Cowboys’ penalty issue should, at the very least, make up the difference.

So there’s no line value either way. How about the public? What are they doing this week? The public seems to be more down on Dallas after their Monday Night performance than Baltimore as Baltimore is being pretty heavily publicly bet. I normally like to fade the public, but this is one instance where I agree with them. Baltimore always rises to the occasions with these tough tests and they have won their last 14 overall at home, dating back to that Pittsburgh loss. It’s a small play on the hosts.

Public lean: Baltimore (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Dallas covers)

Sharps lean: DAL 24 BAL 9

Final update: This is one of the biggest sharps lean of the week. I understand the appeal with Dallas coming off an embarrassing loss and a bye, but Baltimore is underrated as well after two less than stellar performances and they always play well at home, especially against tough competition. I considering dropping a unit, but I am keeping this at 2.

Baltimore Ravens 27 Dallas Cowboys 20

Pick against spread: Baltimore -3.5 (-110) 2 units

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Dallas Cowboys: Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys

Last week: 10 (+0)

Record: 2-2

Believe it or not, the Cowboys actually rank tied for 2nd in the league in yards per play differential with Baltimore and Philadelphia, behind only San Francisco. Turnovers are a huge issue for them as they rank dead last in the NFL at -7 and are coming off a game in which they were -4 in turnovers. However, turnovers are incredibly inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that lose the turnover battle by 4 actually WIN it by an average of 0.4 in their next game. The Panthers were in a similar situation last week, facing a team that dominated the turnover battle up to that point, Atlanta, and they almost beat them. The Cowboys have a bye to get things straightened out and to get guys like Jay Ratliff, Anthony Spencer, and Phil Costa back from injury. I think this is an underrated team.

Studs

LG Nate Livings: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 56 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 1 carry

TE Jason Witten: Caught 13 passes for 112 yards and a touchdown on 14 attempts on 53 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to

MLB Sean Lee: 10 solo tackles, 2 assists, 7 stops, allowed 1 catch for -3 yards on 1 attempt

NT Josh Price-Brent: 1 sack and 17 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles and 4 stops

ROLB DeMarcus Ware: 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 23 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles and 3 stops

Duds

RT Doug Free: Allowed 6 quarterback hurries on 56 pass block snaps, run blocked for -2 yards on 2 carries

WR Dez Bryant: Caught 8 passes for 105 yards on 13 attempts on 56 pass snaps, 4.4 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to, 2 drops

WR Kevin Ogletree: Caught 3 passes for 24 yards on 39 pass snaps, 1.7 YAC per catch, 2 interceptions when thrown to, 1 drop

CB Brandon Carr: Allowed 3 catches for 69 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles

RE Jason Hatcher: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

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Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys: Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bears, Cowboys

Chicago Bears (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

The Cowboys ended last season by getting destroyed defensively by, among others, the New York Giants. They lost 4 of their last 5 to blow the division and finish at 8-8, while they watched the Giants go on to eventually hoist the Super Bowl trophy. Given that, it’s no surprise that they spent as many resources as they did on the defensive side of the ball this offseason. It really seems to have paid off as they rank 1st in the league in yards per play allowed. Guys like Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne are playing really well, while several youngsters have stepped up.

Though they’ve faced the Seahawks and Buccaneers in 2 of their 3 games, they also did a solid job defensively on the Giants in the opener, holding them to 5.0 yards per play and 17 points. What’s even more impressive is that they’re doing this without Jay Ratliff, one of their best defensive players. He’s not expected to be able to go in this one either, but they might not need him much if they keep playing like they have.

While their defense has been excellent, their offense has been surprisingly middle of the pack. They’re normally one of the better offensive teams in the league and if they can get it together offensively and the defense continues to play well, they’re going to be a scary team. The biggest reason for their offensive issues is how many penalties they’ve committed. They lead the league with 22 offensive penalties. What’s even more concerning is that these penalties are mostly simple procedural penalties. I’d say they should be able to turn it around, but this isn’t a new issue for them. They were the 5th most penalized team in the league last year. Still, I don’t expect it to be THIS bad all year for them so there’s some room for improvement offensively and even with their offensive issues, they rank 2nd in the league in yards per play differential.

The Bears, meanwhile, rank right in the middle of the pack with an even yards per play differential. Their defense is also very good, as it normally is, but the offense is really sputtering. They had a huge performance week 1 against the lowly Colts, but they’ve struggled in the last two weeks against the Packers and the Rams. This was a top-5 offense last year before injuries struck so they should improve things eventually. They do have talent offensively; they’re just not playing up to it. Facing a tough defense this week though, this might not be the week to turn things around, especially with Matt Forte questionable.

I’ve gone into detail about these two teams’ yards per play differentials. The difference between these two teams’ differentials is 1.3 yards per play. An old gambling formula says to divide that by .15 and then add 3 either way to get the “real line.” That suggests that this line should be -11.5 in favor of the Cowboys. Obviously, it’s a little bit more accurate later in the season, but it’s definitely worth noting. 8 points of line value is nothing to sneeze at. On top of that, the Bears are a public underdog and as much as I love the fade the public, I love to fade public underdogs even more.

Public lean: Chicago (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Dallas covers)

Sharps lean (sharps is defined as anyone with a 66.7% winning percentage or higher in Las Vegas Hilton): CHI 7 DAL 3

Update: Sharps are not only afraid to bet this game, but they pick Chicago when they do. Anthony Spencer is expected to be out for the Cowboys, while Matt Forte is expected to play for the Bears. I’m dropping a unit.

Dallas Cowboys 27 Chicago Bears 23

Pick against spread: Dallas -3.5 (+100) 1 unit

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Dallas Cowboys: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Cowboys

Last week: 15 (+5)

Record: 2-1

The Cowboys, like the Eagles, can be dangerous if they can ever get their act together. Penalties and turnovers are killing them, but the latter typically evens out over time. They rank 2nd in the league in yards per play differential, including 1st in the league in yards per play allowed. Their defense is much better this season and they’ve done it without nose tackle Jay Ratliff, who will be back soon. We also haven’t seen the most of Tony Romo yet. I’d rank them higher if I thought they could conquer their penalties issue (they were one of the most penalized teams in the league last year as well), but I think they’re talented enough to make the playoffs even if they end up being one of the league’s most penalized teams, much like the Lions and 49ers did last year.

Studs

CB Brandon Carr: Did not allow a catch on 2 attempts, 1 pass deflection, no tackles

Duds

LG Nate Livings: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurries on 44 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for -2 yards on 2 attempts

RG Mackenzy Bernadeau: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 45 pass rush snaps, run blocked for -1 yards on 1 attempt

RT Doug Free: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 45 pass rush snaps, 4 penalties, run blocked for -2 yards on 1 attempt

TE Jason Witten: 2 catches for 8 yards on 6 attempts on 40 pass snaps, 2.5 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 2 penalties, allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 5 pass block snaps

Cowboys rule Jay Ratliff and Phil Costa out again, as well as Gerald Sensabaugh

stevenlourie Cowboys, News

As they were last week, the Cowboys will be without the middle of their offensive line and defensive line once again this week as center Phil Costa will miss with back problems and nose tackle Jay Ratliff will miss with an ankle problem. Costa left during their week 1 game against the Giants, while Ratliff has yet to play a snap this season after injuring himself in the preseason.

Ryan Cook, who was acquired from the Dolphins for a late round pick right before final cuts, will get the start once again at center. He played surprisingly well last week, but he represents a weakness on the offensive line for the Cowboys, as do new starters Mackenzy Bernadeau and Nate Livings. Livings was awful in 2011 with the Bengals and Bernadeau is a career backup and former 7th round pick so I have no idea why the Cowboys paid him starter’s money to start for them. In Ratliff’s absence, defensive end Sean Lissemore has played more inside, while Josh Price-Brent has been starting at nose tackle. Defense hasn’t really been an issue for the Cowboys so far this year, as they rank 10th in yards per play, but Ratliff was ProFootballFocus’ 7th rated defensive tackle last year, so the sooner he returns, the better.

The Cowboys will be without one other starter this week on defense, a new injury, as starting safety Gerald Sensabaugh is expected to miss. Sensabaugh is a solid starter at a position that is otherwise a weakness for the Cowboys. Mediocre starter Barry Church, who is also nursing an injury, will play and Danny McCray will play in the absence of Sensabaugh, who is listed as doubtful with a calf problem. It’s a weakness area.

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