Dolphins

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Baltimore Ravens (4-7) at Miami Dolphins (4-7)

This has been the season from hell for the Ravens. After going 11-5, winning a playoff game, and finishing the season 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential a year ago, the Ravens lost outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, wide receiver Torrey Smith, and offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak this off-season. And then during the season, they’ve lost 1st round pick wide receiver (and Torrey Smith replacement) Breshad Perriman, wide receiver Steve Smith, outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, center Jeremy Zuttah, quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Justin Forsett for the season with injury. They’re also likely going to be missing offensive tackle Eugene Monroe for the 2nd straight week this week, though left guard Kelechi Osemele returns from a one week absence.

As a result of all of these losses, the Ravens are 4-7, rank 26th in rate of moving the chains differential, and are even less talented than that suggests now with Flacco, Forsett and Monroe all going down within the last two weeks. The Dolphins rank 29th and have been horrendous defensively since losing Cameron Wake for the season week 8, but the line is only 3.5, down from 6 a week ago, a significant change. I love to fade significant line movements whenever it makes sense and it does here. The Ravens have a tough game next week, at home for the Seahawks, where they’ll be 4.5 point underdogs. Teams are 74-51 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point home underdogs. Given that, I’m taking the Dolphins though it’s a no confidence pick. If it goes down to 3, I might consider bumping it up to low confidence, given that 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal.

Miami Dolphins 24 Baltimore Ravens 19

Pick against the spread: Miami -3.5

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (4-6) at New York Jets (5-5)

This might sound weird considering they’re 5-5 and have struggled on offense, but the Jets actually rank 5th in rate of moving the chains differential. It makes more sense when you consider two things. One, while their offense has really struggled, ranking 26th in rate of moving the chains, their defense has been really strong, ranking 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential allowed. They have arguably the best defensive line in football with Sheldon Richardson, Leonard Williams, Muhammad Wilkerson, and Damon Harrison and cornerback Darrelle Revis is once again having a fantastic season. Two, there really aren’t any truly good teams outside of the top-4 (Arizona, New England, Cincinnati, and Carolina), so saying the Jets are 5th really just means they’re the best of the rest. They’re closer to the 14th ranked team than they are to the 4th ranked team. The league is really top heavy this year.

They’re a lot better than the Dolphins though, as the Dolphins rank 29th. Not a very good team to begin with, their defense has been awful since losing defensive end Cameron Wake for the season with a torn Achilles about a month ago. They’re also missing right tackle JuWuan James, while the Jets get key center Nick Mangold back from injury this week. Mangold has been in and out of the lineup over the past month with various injuries, which has really hurt their offense and coincided with their recent 1-4 stretch, but he’s healthy this week, after leaving last week’s contest with a hand laceration.

All that being said, I’m not going to put money on the Jets as mere 3.5 point favorites, for three reasons. The first reason is that close to 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, so I’m really worried about a backdoor cover. The second reason is that Darrelle Revis is out with a concussion and their secondary looks a lot worse without him. The third reason is that the Jets are in a terrible spot, as they will be underdogs against the Giants next week, while the Dolphins will be favored at home against the lowly Ravens. Favorites are 96-166 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. If this line goes down to 3, I may reconsider, but, for now, this is a low confidence pick.

New York Jets 20 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -3.5

Confidence: Low

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Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (2-7) at Miami Dolphins (4-5)

The Cowboys are 2-7, but are favored here by 1.5 points in Miami. That’s because, of their 7 losses, 5 of them have come by less than a touchdown. As a result, they rank 23rd in rate of moving the chains, not bad as their record. The Dolphins rank 24th, but the Cowboys are getting Tony Romo back from injury for the first time since week 2 (when they were 2-0). The Cowboys are going to be missing top linebacker Sean Lee with injury, but the Dolphins are without defensive end Cameron Wake, offensive tackle JuWuan James, and linebacker Jelani Jenkins.

The Cowboys are in a tough spot though, playing again in 4 days, against the Panthers in Dallas, on Thanksgiving. Favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game. On top of that, they could easily be home underdogs next week and road favorites are 19-36 ATS before being home underdogs since 2012. The early line has that game as a pick ‘em, but the line could easily become 1 or 2 in favor of Carolina. Either way, they have a tough game coming up in a few days and are in a bad spot as a result of that.

It does help the Cowboys that they’re in their 2nd straight road game.  Teams are 43-29 ATS since 2008 as road favorites off of a road loss in their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 215-215 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.42 points per game, as opposed to 300-420 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.92 points per game. I’m going to take them because they should win and we’re getting field goal protection and then some with them, but I’m not confident.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Dallas -1.5

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Eagles, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (3-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)

This game was really tough because there are conflicting trends on each side. On one hand, the Dolphins are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 122-87 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 100-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 211-214 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.46 points per game, as opposed to 296-419 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.99 points per game.

On the other hand, the Eagles are big home favorites, deserved big home favorites (they rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 23rd for the Dolphins) with an easy game on deck, a home game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a game in which the early line has the as 8.5 point favorites. Teams are 79-39 ATS since 2012 as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites again, as good teams tend to take care of business and win big over inferior opponents when they don’t have any upcoming distractions.

I’m taking the Eagles because they’re in a better injury situation. Rookie middle linebacker Jordan Hicks is out for the season, but they should be able to survive now that Mychal Kendricks, Kiko Alonso, and DeMeco Ryans are all healthy again at middle linebacker. On the offensive side of the ball, talented left tackle Jason Peters makes his return, a big boost on the offensive line. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are in their 2nd straight game without key defensive end Cameron Wake, who is out for the season, and right tackle JaWuan James. I’m not confident at all though.

Philadelphia Eagles 20 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (3-4) at Buffalo Bills (3-4)

The bye came at the perfect time for the Buffalo Bills, who limped into the bye with two straight losses, including a loss in London to the Jaguars, in a game in which they were missing starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor, talented backup running back Karlos Williams, starting wide receivers Percy Harvin and Sammy Watkins, and star defensive tackle Kyle Williams. The Bills aren’t 100% this week, but they definitely come out of the bye healthier. Harvin has been put on injured reserve (I know, shocker), Kyle Williams remains out, and Sammy Watkins is going to be a game time call after tweaking his ankle injury late in the week, but Taylor and Karlos Williams are both definitely returning. Taylor’s return is definitely the biggest one, as he was playing pretty well before going down, while backup quarterback EJ Manuel didn’t play well in his absence.

However, the Bills also come out of the bye into an awful spot, with a Thursday night trip to New York to play the Jets on deck, following this home contest against the Dolphins. Divisional home favorites are 21-58 ATS before being divisional road underdogs since 2002, one of the worst spots a team can be in. On top of that, favorites are 42-67 ATS before a Thursday night game since 2008. Meanwhile, divisional home favorites are just 31-54 ATS against a team they previously beat that season as divisional road favorites, as the Bills did back in week 3.

This would be my Pick of the Week most weeks. The only reason it’s not this week, in addition to the fact that I really like the undefeated Panthers as field goal home underdogs against Green Bay, is because the Bills are a slightly better team and are only favored by a field goal. They rank 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Dolphins rank 25th in rate of moving the chains differential. On top of that, they’re getting healthier, while the Dolphins just lost one of their top defensive players, Cameron Wake, for the season. However, the Bills are still far from healthy and we’re still getting field goal protection with the Dolphins (15.6% of games are decided by a field goal) and, of course, the Bills are in an awful spot. I really like Miami this week.

Miami Dolphins 16 Buffalo Bills 13 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Miami +3

Confidence: High

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Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (3-3) at New England Patriots (6-0)

Dan Campbell has looked like the best coach in the NFL through 2 games, as the Dolphins have won their last 2 games since the bye by double digits, taking big early leads in both of them. This comes after the Dolphins had an incredibly disappointing start to their season, going 1-3 (with one win on a punt return in Washington), losing in Jacksonville, and getting demolished by two divisional rivals, the Bills and the Jets, in games that both were Miami home games.

That’s why they fired Joe Philbin during the bye and replaced him with a fiery young tight ends coach in Campbell. However, before we get too far ahead of ourselves with the Dolphins again, it’s important to remember that it’s been just two games against the Titans and the Texans and that Campbell only looks so good because he’s being compared with Joe Philbin, who was one of the worst coaches in the league over the past few years.

The Dolphins still only rank 21st in rate of moving the chains differential on the season. Their talent level is better than that, especially with left tackle Branden Albert and defensive end Cameron Wake now healthy off of the bye, and they have definitely found an upgrade at the head coach spot, albeit an inexperienced one, but they still have major issues, such as the offensive line and the secondary. The Patriots, meanwhile, rank 3rd in that measure, though they do have some injuries, missing defensive end Jabaal Sheard, left tackle Marcus Cannon, and possibly running back Dion Lewis, while the Dolphins are essentially at 100% injury wise.

The Dolphins should still have a much tougher time with them in New England than they did with Houston and Tennessee. The Dolphins’ recent play has moved this line from 10.5 on the early line to 8.5 this week, a number that they almost covered in a tougher spot against a much tougher Jets team last week. I love to fade a significant line movement whenever I can and this game is no exception. We’re getting line value with the Patriots, as this line should be about 10 at least.

The Patriots are also in a much better spot, hosting the Redskins next week, meaning they have no distractions on the horizon. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have to turn around off this one and go to Buffalo, who blew them out badly in Miami a few weeks ago. They should still be focused for this one, with a long week between them and Buffalo and with New England being arguably their biggest rival and toughest opponent.

However, even if the Dolphins didn’t have an upcoming distraction, the Patriots are still in a better spot because the better team tends to be the one that benefits most from not having an upcoming distraction. Favorites of 6+ are 77-37 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6+ again, as good teams tend to take care of business and win big, unless they have an upcoming distraction. It also helps that the Patriots are 15-7 ATS since 2013. If it wasn’t for heavy public action on New England and the Patriots’ few injuries, this would be a higher confidence pick, but I have no problem putting money on New England this week.

New England Patriots 34 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: New England -8.5

Confidence: Medium

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Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (2-4) at Miami Dolphins (2-3)

The Dolphins were the most disappointing team in the league for the first 4 weeks, going 1-3 (with one win on a punt return), and getting demolished by two divisional rivals, the Bills and the Jets, in games that were technically Miami home games. They used the week 5 bye to fire head coach Joe Philbin and install interim head coach Dan Campbell, previously the tight ends coach. Though Campbell has no head coaching or even coordinator experience, he seemed to do a good job with them in the transition period, as the Dolphins blew out the Titans 38-10 in Tennessee off of the bye last Sunday.

As a result, this line has shifted from 1.5 last week to 5 this week. Typically, I love to fade huge week-to-week line movements because they’re typically the result of overreactions to one week. This game will be no exception, as I think this line is way too high. The Dolphins still only rank 24th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re probably more talented than that suggests, but they’re a deeply flawed team with major issues in the secondary and on the offensive line and also have a very inexperienced head coach and coaching staff.

The Texans have their own issues, but are playing much better of late, since switching back to Brian Hoyer at quarterback. Hoyer is Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked quarterback this season and Houston ranks 13th in rate of moving the chains differential. There’s no way the Dolphins should be favored by 5 here, especially given that the Dolphins are just 3-7 ATS at home favored by 3+ points since Ryan Tannehill arrived in 2012. They shouldn’t be getting more than 2 points for their homefield advantage, which means that you should only take the Dolphins if you think they’re at least 3 points better than the Texans. I don’t think they are.

The Dolphins are also in a horrific spot, having to turn around and face the Patriots 4 days after this one, as they go to Foxboro for Thursday Night Football next week. Teams are 51-90 ATS since 2010 before being underdogs of 10 or more (the early line is NE –10.5). That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. In this case, it’s more the first, but, as we’ve established, they’re not a great team either.

The Texans, meanwhile, host the Titans next week, a game in which they’ll definitely be favored in Houston. Favorites before being underdogs (like the Dolphins are) are 70-113 ATS when their opponent will next be favorites (like the Texans are) since 2010. Combining the two, favorites who will next be 10+ point underdogs are 19-47 ATS when their opponent will next be favorites since 1989. On top of that, the Dolphins are favorites before Thursday Night Football. Teams are 41-66 ATS in that spot since 2008. With arguably their hardest game of the season on deck, just 4 days after this one, I really don’t expect the Dolphins to be focused at all for the Texans.

The only edge the Dolphins have is in terms of these two respective team’s injury situations. The Texans will be missing starting cornerback Kareem Jackson and middle linebacker Benardrick McKinney for this one, though the former really hasn’t been playing that well this season. The Dolphins are just missing starting cornerback Brice McCain and he’s one of the worst starting cornerbacks in football. Still, I have no problem taking the Texans +5 as my Pick of the Week. The Dolphins will have trouble winning this one by more than a field goal.

Houston Texans 20 Miami Dolphins 17 Upset Pick +180

Pick against the spread: Houston +5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Tennessee Titans (1-3)

The Dolphins have been a massive disappointment through 4 games, after finishing 10th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014 and seemingly getting better this off-season. They won in Washington, though only on a punt return touchdown, lost a close one in Jacksonville, who hasn’t beaten anyone else, and then got stomped by both Buffalo and the New York Jets, leading to the dismissal of head coach Joe Philbin, a move that was long overdue. Coming off a bye, with a much needed change at head coach, and with talented left tackle Branden Albert expected back from injury, the Dolphins should be much improved this week and, while they have major holes on the offensive line and in the secondary, they still have a good amount of talent, despite ranking 28th in rate of moving the chains differential.

That might not translate to a win this week though, as the Titans, while also 1-3, are a solid bunch. They blew out Tampa Bay by a score of 42-14, came within 2 points of beating the Colts, came within a point of Buffalo and, while they lost by 14 in Cleveland, the Browns only moved the chains at a 69.57% rate, as opposed to 67.65% for Tennessee. On the season, they rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential. They probably aren’t as good as that suggests, but it’s clear that they aren’t an easy team to beat. One of the worst teams in the league last season, the Titans are drastically improved on both sides of the ball this season and I like their chances of beating the Dolphins by at least 3 points and covering as 2.5 point home favorites here.

The reason I wouldn’t put money on the Titans is because they have to host the Falcons next week, while the Dolphins get to host the Texans. The Dolphins will definitely be favored in that game, while the Titans could easily be home underdogs when Atlanta comes to town, even after Atlanta was delivered their first loss of the season by the Saints on Thursday. If that still happens, it opens up a significant trend. Underdogs are 112-68 ATS since 2010 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, as teams tend to be more focused than their opponent in spots like that. Even if the Titans end up being favored next week, the logic behind the trend still makes sense. Tennessee is my pick, but I’m not that confident.

Tennessee Titans 20 Miami Dolphins 16

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -2.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at Miami Dolphins in London: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (2-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-2) in London

The Dolphins fell flat on their face in their home opener last week, losing 41-14 to the Buffalo Bills. The Dolphins, for some reason, haven’t had much of a homefield advantage in recent years, going 13-12, getting outscored by an average of 0.04 points per game, at home, while going 12-15, getting outscored by an average of 2.08 points per game, on the road, since 2012, the start of the Ryan Tannehill/Joe Philbin era. Maybe that’s why they’ve agreed to give up one of their Miami games to play a game in London as the “home team” this week. They played in London as the road team last year and blew the Raiders out by the score of 38-14. I think having that experience of travelling across the ocean to play in London, which the Jets don’t really have, gives them an advantage.

The Dolphins have been the biggest disappointment in the league, in my opinion. They were arguably the best non-playoff team in the league last season, finishing 10th in rate of moving the chains differential. I thought they improved on the offensive line, improved in the receiving corps, and improved on defense, thanks to the massive addition of Ndamukong Suh, this off-season. They still had some issues at guard, cornerback, and safety, but I thought they could be a top-5 team. That hasn’t happened, as they are coming off of an embarrassing home loss and are 1-2, ranking 24th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite an easy schedule.

The Dolphins might not ever reach their potential until they get rid of Joe Philbin and this coaching staff and, if that’s true, it’s important that they get rid of them soon, to save this season. With 9 players scheduled to take up a combined 101 million on their 2016 cap, this team went all in on this season and will be in salary cap hell for a few off-seasons afterwards as a result. They need to get results on the field as soon as possible. I still think they’re talented enough to turn it around though and I like their chances as 2 point underdogs here against the Jets. The Dolphins were in a very similar situation last year going into this game and turned their season around.

The Jets have had a solid start to their season going 2-1 and ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, after ranking 28th a season ago. I do think they’re an improved team, thanks to several off-season additions, including Darrelle Revis and Brandon Marshall, but also Ryan Fitzpatrick. Ryan Fitzpatrick has continued to play solidly, as he did in Tennessee in 2013 and Houston in 2014, and might be the best quarterback they’ve had since Chad Pennington was healthy. They’re also getting Eric Decker and Chris Ivory back this week, after neither played last week with injuries in their first loss of the season. I still think the Dolphins are more talented, despite what the first 3 weeks have shown, and I like them in this spot, so they should be able to cover, but I’m not confident, especially with left tackle Branden Albert once again out with a hamstring problem.

Miami Dolphins 20 New York Jets 17 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +2

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (1-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-1)

The Bills were seen as a breakout squad after they defeated the Colts week 1. However, that win doesn’t look as good now that the Jets beat the Colts in Indianapolis and the Bills were also beaten pretty convincingly at home by the Patriots last week. They have one of the best defenses in football, but they also have one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league in Tyrod Taylor and a weak offensive line on an all-around poor offense. They’re an average team at best and could easily finish below .500 if they have more significant defensive injuries than they’re used to. They’ve had very good luck in terms of their defensive stars staying healthy over the past few years.

Miami also lost last week, doing so in surprising and embarrassing fashion in Jacksonville. The Dolphins didn’t look great to start the season, going 1-1 and finishing 14th in rate of moving the chains differential, despite playing a pair of teams in Washington and Jacksonville that aren’t very good. However, it’s somewhat excusable because both games were on the road and it’s very possible that when we look back on this season, the Miami loss in Jacksonville looks like a fluke. It’s still very early in the season and I don’t like to change my views on teams quickly. I had them winning the AFC East coming into the season, after finishing 10th in rate of moving the chains differential last season and improving their team this off-season. They might not do that anymore because New England has looked very good through 2 games, but they could still certainly be a playoff team. They’re better than Buffalo and they could actually very easily be 2-0 right now if a couple things, including a missed makeable field goal, went differently against Jacksonville.

Given that and given that this line only favors Miami by 2.5 points, Miami appears to be a pretty obvious choice. Not only does this line suggest that the Bills are the better team, but it can also be covered with a victory by a field goal. However, I’m not too confident in the Dolphins this week for a couple of reasons. The first reason is that they’ll be missing talented left tackle Branden Albert with injury. The second reason has to do with scheduling. The Bills lucked out not having to go on the road until week 3, while the Dolphins were unlucky getting stuck with two road games. It’s not just that two road games are a tougher two weeks than two home games. Teams that don’t play at home until week 3 tend to be less refreshed than their opponent when they finally are home, going 22-43 ATS during that week 3 game since 1989. Meanwhile, teams that don’t play on the road until week 3 are 40-27 ATS in that week 3 road game. I still like the Dolphins here, but I don’t think I’d put money on it.

Miami Dolphins 17 Buffalo Bills 10

Pick against the spread: Miami -2.5

Confidence: Low

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