Dolphins

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Bills, Dolphins

Miami Dolphins (4-5) at Buffalo Bills (3-6)

Things have really gone south for the Dolphins in the past few weeks. How south? 2 weeks ago they were in a playoff spot in the AFC and road favorites going to Indianapolis. Two weeks later, they are 4-5 and are dogs in Buffalo. Not only that, but the public is pounding the home favorite. Buffalo is not only infrequently favored, but they’re also incredibly infrequently publicly backed as favorites.

So what went wrong for the Dolphins? Well, first they lost in Indianapolis to the Colts by 3. That’s not embarrassing at all. The Colts stand at 6-3 and even hanging within a field goal of them in Indianapolis is pretty impressive. However, last week, the Dolphins lost at home to the Titans in embarrassing fashion, 37-3. That’s shifted this line from Miami being road favorites to Buffalo being favored.

However, that loss wasn’t as embarrassing as it looked. They got killed in the turnover battle 4-0, setting up Tennessee in great field position, giving them the ability to score 37 points despite just 9 completions and fewer than 300 yards of offense. That being said, this line does hold up to the test of the yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential metrics. The former says this line should be Buffalo -1.5 and the latter says this line should be Buffalo -1, which is right around where this line actually is.

What last week’s fluky loss does do is put Miami in a great spot to cover this week. Teams are 62-31 ATS since 2002 coming off a loss of 31+ or more. Teams tend to be embarrassed and undervalued in this spot and the Dolphins are at least one of those things. They may also be undervalued. Teams are 21-11 ATS since 1989 coming off a game in which they allowed 32 or more points and fewer than 10 completions. This makes sense as those tend to be fluky losses. They may also be dogs before being favorites as they host Seattle (a notoriously bad road team) next week. Teams are 92-52 ATS in this spot in the last 2 seasons.

Buffalo is also in a bunch of bad spots, starting with the classic sandwich game spot. Teams are 57-82 ATS since 2008 as favorites off a loss as dogs and before being dogs. This works for one of two reasons depending on the type of team favored. For good teams, the sandwich game gives them an opportunity for an “easy” win to get on the right page after a tough loss before playing another tough team. They tend to overlook their opponents. For bad teams, well they shouldn’t be favored. Buffalo is clearly one of the latter teams.

They’re also in a bad spot after coming so close to knocking off divisional rival New England as huge dogs last week. Favorites are 22-30 ATS off a loss as divisional double digit dogs since 1989 and divisional favorites after a loss as divisional dogs are 96-112 ATS since 1989. Neither of those trends is particularly strong, but if you combine them, you get that teams are 5-12 ATS as divisional favorites off a loss as double digit divisional dogs. Meanwhile, favorites on Thursday Nights are 0-4 ATS off a divisional loss as dogs.

I like Miami for a significant play. Instead of putting 3 units on the spread and 1 on the money line, I’m putting all 4 on the money line. Since 1989, there have been 413 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 413 teams, only 7 of those teams won by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. It’s not worth the extra 15 cents for something that historically will only hurt me about 1.7% of the time. I also like the under, as usual, on Thursday Night. The under is 71-53 on Thursday Night since 1989.

Public lean: Buffalo (70% range)

Miami Dolphins 23 Buffalo Bills 10 Upset Pick +105 4 units

Pick against spread: Miami +1.5 (-110) 0 units

Total: Under 45 (-110) 1 unit

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Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Titans

Tennessee Titans (3-6) at Miami Dolphins (4-4)

Jake Locker returns this week for the Titans. It’s amazing. It’s almost as if his shoulder magically healed as soon as veteran backup Matt Hasselbeck had a bad game. Locker has more upside definitely and is the right quarterback for this team right now, because they’re not going anywhere fast and need to get the young former 1st rounder some experience. However, I don’t know if he’s really an upgrade over Hasselbeck short term. Hasselbeck was doing pretty well up until last week and overall this year, he completed 62.7% of his passes for an average of 6.2 YPA, 7 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. Locker has yet to show himself to be better than that.

What Locker does inherit, however, is a team in a good situation, contrary to popular belief. The Titans got destroyed last week, but it was kind of a fluky loss. They got down big before they knew what hit them thanks to special teams blunders and turnovers, allowing 28 points off a pick six, a blocked punt, a fumble, and a long punt return.

Teams off a big loss like that do pretty well the following week. Dogs are 55-27 ATS since 2002 coming off a loss of 31+ or more as a dog. Teams tend to be embarrassed, undervalued, and playing for pride off a loss like that and that should be especially true for the Titans since owner Bud Adams flipped out after the loss and basically said anyone could lose their job. Meanwhile, this line has shifted one point, from -5 to -6, after Tennessee’s loss, a sign that they’re undervalued even though, in reality, it was several fluky blunders that doomed them, not anything to do with their talent level. This line movement also happened in spite of Miami losing as road favorites in Indianapolis.

Speaking of Miami losing as road favorites in Indianapolis, teams are 24-35 ATS as home favorites of 3+ off a loss as road favorites since 2002. Meanwhile, Miami hosts divisional Buffalo on Thursday Night next week, something that could distract them. Favorites just 23-35 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night game since 1989, 14-23 ATS before being divisional favorites.

We are getting some line value with the Dolphins. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of -5 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method gives us a real line of -9.5 and when you average those out, it’s higher than the -6 this line is in actuality. The Titans have gotten blown out an awful lot this year and have the league’s worst points differential, worse than Kansas City, worse than divisional Jacksonville, worse than anyone. However, that’s more of just a reason why this isn’t a big play than why I’m not taking Tennessee. I like the spot the Titans are in and I don’t think Miami is a team that’s built to consistently blow people out.

Public lean: Miami (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Tennessee covers)

Sharps lean: TEN 8 MIA 3

Final update: No change.

Miami Dolphins 20 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against spread: Tennessee +6 (-110) 2 units

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Miami Dolphins: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins

Last week: 12 (-2)

Record: 4-4

In spite of a close road loss in a previously underrated Colts team, the Dolphins are still legitimate playoff contenders and if history is any indication, they’re more likely to make it than some other borderline playoff teams in the AFC right now, other than San Diego. Every year, 5 new playoff teams make the playoffs that didn’t make it the year before, dating back 17 straight years. I use this in my Power Rankings every week.

Right now, Chicago, who didn’t make the playoffs last year, looks like a lock to make it this year. Meanwhile, Cincinnati and New Orleans, two playoff teams from a year ago, look very unlikely to make it this year. Indianapolis, sitting at 5-3, is another solid bet to make the playoffs after missing it last year. Detroit, at 4-4, probably has to go 6-2 the rest of the way to make the playoffs, against a brutal schedule, so they’re probably out. Other than that, not much is set in stone.

Miami, San Diego, Minnesota, Seattle, and Tampa Bay are the serious candidates for the other 3 spots in the 5 in category, while, in my opinion, Green Bay and Baltimore, thanks to injury, seem to be in the strongest (weakest?) position to be the other 2 out. Philadelphia and Dallas were candidates to be in the 5 in group before losses last week and that pretty much locked the Giants, another 5 out candidate, into a playoff spot.

Pittsburgh is another 5 out candidate, but I think they’re a better team than Baltimore right now and will sweep the two games against them, but we’ll know more in the next few weeks. With Baltimore out, that opens one more spot in the AFC, with Indianapolis already pretty safely locked into taking Cincinnati’s vacated spot. I think it will come down to either Miami or San Diego and I’m giving Miami the slight edge right now as San Diego has really not impressed me lately. With 4 games against Buffalo, Tennessee, and Jacksonville (3 out of 4 at home), as well as a home game against Seattle, who is notoriously poor on the road, the schedule is in Miami’s favor.

Studs

LG Richie Incognito: Did not allow a pressure on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 30 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 1 penalty

RG John Jerry: Did not allow a pressure on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 3 attempts

WR Brian Hartline: Caught 8 passes for 107 yards on 9 attempts on 40 pass snaps, 2.8 YAC per catch

LOLB Kevin Burnett: 5 solo tackles, 3 assists, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hit on 9 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 31 yards on 4 attempts

SS Reshad Jones: Didn’t allow a catch on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 1 quarterback hit on 6 blitzes

LE Cameron Wake: 1 sack, 3 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 45 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

LE Derrick Shelby: 1 quarterback hit and 3 quarterback hurries on 7 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

P Brandon Fields: 4 punts for 213 yards, 2 inside 20, 4 returns for 29 yards, 46.0 net yards per punt

Duds

LT Jake Long: Allowed 1 sack, 3 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, 2 penalties

TE Anthony Fasano: 1 catch for 8 yards on 3 attempts on 27 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

CB Jimmy Wilson: 4 solo tackles, 1 batted pass, allowed 8 catches for 99 yards on 10 attempts

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Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Colts, Dolphins

Miami Dolphins (4-3) at Indianapolis Colts (4-3)

Both of these teams sit at 4-3, meaning this game could easily have playoff implications and one or both of these teams could make the playoffs. I bet you didn’t see that coming. I would say these teams are pretty equal. I had Miami ranked 10th in my Power Rankings and Indianapolis ranked 11th. However, for some reason, Miami is actually road favorites here of 2.5, which makes no sense.

Miami was +2 in New York to play the Jets. The Jets are 4.5 points better than the Colts? I know the Jets beat them, but that was when Indianapolis was flat off of the ChuckStrong game. The Colts are playing much better since then (they’re 3-1 in their last 4 overall) and it’s hard to believe that the Jets are now 4.5 points better than the Colts when the odds makers thought they were just .5 points better a few weeks ago (NY Jets -3.5 at home).

Yards per play and rate of sustaining drives second my opinion that these two are about even. Indianapolis ranks 27th in yards per play differential and 17th in rate of sustaining drives, while Miami ranks 21st and 19th respectively. The yards per play differential method of calculating line value gives us a real line of Indianapolis -1 and the rate of sustaining drives differential method of calculating line value gives us a real line of Indianapolis -3.5.

And that’s not even taking into account Indianapolis’ improving injury situation. Their defense is finally getting healthy after seemingly losing every good defensive player they had for some period of time (though it sounds like Vontae Davis will be out for a while). Cory Redding, Dwight Freeney, and Pat Angerer are all back and it sounds like Angerer will play in more than just a rotational role this week for the first time all season. Robert Mathis could also play this week, after missing 3 games. On the offensive side of the ball, Donald Brown is back. Their offense line is also finally healthy. The only players missing are Davis and Coby Fleener, though the latter wasn’t doing much anyway. For Miami, starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill will be playing hurt.

At first glance, this looked like a trap line, because this line just didn’t make any sense to me, but there’s not a heavy public lean on Indianapolis, so I ruled that out. In fact, there’s a slight lean on Miami. Given that, I really like Indianapolis this week. Dogs are 86-49 ATS before being favorites since 2011. Going off of that, home dogs are 51-31 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. Indianapolis goes to Jacksonville next week. On top of that, home dogs are 56-33 ATS off a road win as divisional dogs, 6-3 ATS when it was an overtime win and 42-20 ATS when the win was by a touchdown or fewer. It’s a significant play on the Colts.

Public lean: Miami (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Indianapolis covers)

Sharps lean: IND 12 MIA 5

Final update: Solid sharps lean on Indianapolis. Still feeling confident.

Indianapolis Colts 24 Miami Dolphins 20 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Indianapolis +2.5 (-110) 4 units

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Miami Dolphins: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#10)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins

Last week: 12 (+2)

Record: 4-3

If the season ended today, Miami and Indianapolis would be in the playoffs in the crappy AFC. Those two teams square off this week in Indianapolis in a game that could have playoff implications. I have Miami ranked higher right now. They rank 21st in yards per play differential and 19th in rate of sustaining drives, while Indianapolis ranks 27th and 18th respectively. Miami also holds the edge in points differential +24 to -35, but the game is in Indianapolis.

Studs

QB Matt Moore: 11 of 19 for 131 yards and a touchdown, 1 batted pass, 1 throw away, 1 drop, 100.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 4 of 20 drop backs (1 sack, 1 of 3, 1 throw away, 1 touchdown)

LG Richie Incognito: Did not allow a pressure on 27 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 43 yards on 7 attempts, 1 penalty

C Mike Pouncey: Did not allow a pressure on 27 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 28 yards on 4 attempts

RT Jonathan Martin: Did not allow a pressure on 27 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 8 yards on 5 attempts

LT Jake Long: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 27 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 3 attempts

CB Nolan Carroll: Allowed 6 catches for 49 yards on 10 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 8 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 sack on 2 blitzes

LOLB Kevin Burnett: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 11 blitzes, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops, allowed 4 catches for 42 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection

SS Reshad Jones: Allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 4 solo tackles

FS Chris Clemons: Was not thrown on, 1 interception, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 quarterback hurry on 6 blitzes

DT Randy Starks: 3 quarterback hurries on 36 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

P Brandon Fields: 6 punts for 320 yards, 4 inside 20, no returns, 46.7 net yards per punt

Duds

RB Reggie Bush: Rushed for 59 yards (18 yards after contact) on 14 carries, 1 broken tackle, 1 missed tackle, caught 1 pass for 6 yards on 1 attempt

RE Jared Odrick: 2 quarterback hurries on 47 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets

Miami Dolphins (3-3) at New York Jets (3-4)

The Jets beat the Dolphins in Miami earlier this year, therefore they should beat them in New York right? Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as the Jets are a heavily public lean, but I disagree for several reasons. The first one is that Darrelle Revis went down late in that game. The Jets have done a great job of bouncing back from that loss and their subsequent 34-0 home loss to the 49ers the following week and have covered in 3 straight.

Antonio Cromartie is playing out of his mind right now since Revis went down, allowing 7 catches for 109 yards on 22 attempts, with 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, and 4 pass deflections. The defensive and offensive fronts are playing like they have before, allowing the team’s run offense and run defense to improve. However, that doesn’t mean they won’t miss Revis, especially against a Dolphin team that hasn’t been playing too badly themselves since that game, going 2-1 SU and ATS with that one loss in overtime to the Cardinals and wins against the Bengals in Cincinnati and the Rams in Miami.

Besides, the Dolphins are in a good spot given that their previous matchup was an overtime loss. Teams are 14-8 ATS when trying to avenge a divisional overtime loss since 2008. They’re also 49-31 ATS trying to avenge a divisional loss of 1-3 points in that same period, including 27-16 ATS when the revenge game is a same season game.

On the other side, the Jets are in a bad spot. Favorites after a loss of 1-3 as 10+ dogs are 6-14 ATS since 1989. They’ll be awfully flat after coming so close to pulling a huge upset against a division rival. Meanwhile, home favorites are 10-23 ATS off a road loss in overtime, including 6-16 ATS when the previous overtime loss was as dogs.

We’re also getting line value with the Dolphins. Both measures of “real” line suggest this should be a pick em as Miami ranks 18th in yards per play differential and 17th in rate of sustaining drives differential, while the Jets rank 27th in both. We’re getting points with the better team in the better spot. We’re also getting a chance to fade a heavy public lean as the public likes the Jets. I’ve mentioned many times before I like favorites this week because I expect the favorite/dog disparity to close up (dogs are 63-39 ATS and neither dogs nor favorites have finished more than 10 games above .500 ATS in least at the last decade). However, it’s perfectly fine to make a big play on a dog as long as they aren’t a heavy public dog.

Public lean: NY Jets (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Sharps lean: MIA 22 NYJ 6

Final update: 2nd biggest sharps lean of the week. I’m going to add a unit. Action on Jets, but line has fallen.

Miami Dolphins 20 New York Jets 13 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Miami +2.5 (-110) 4 units

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Miami Dolphins: Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#12)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins

Last week: 18 (+6)

Record: 3-3

Are the Dolphins the 12th best team in the NFL? Maybe not, but someone has to grab that 6th seed in the AFC. After Houston, Baltimore, and New England, the AFC is really lacking good teams and I don’t even know how good those 3 teams mentioned are. The AFC is 9-19 against the NFC this year. San Diego, Denver, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Miami are basically fighting for the last 3 playoff spots and they have would probably miss the playoffs in the NFC. I give Miami the edge over Pittsburgh because the NFL is a parity league. Every year there are 5 new playoff teams and I’ve done my Power Rankings every week with that in mind. Miami is the 5th this week.

Really, what they’re doing isn’t that surprising. At 3-3, all Ryan Tannehill is really doing it continuing what Matt Moore, who went 6-6 last year, did. In fact, Moore was better, as he led this offense to 21.7 points per game and a point differential per game of 4.3. Tannehill has this offense at 20.0 points per game with a point differential of 0.5 per game. However, as long as the defense continues to play well (6th in scoring in 2011, 9th this year), the Dolphins can contend for a playoff spot.

Studs

QB Ryan Tannehill: 21 of 29 for 185 yards and 2 touchdowns, 3 drops, 2 batted passes, 98.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 8 of 34 drop backs (3 sacks, 1 scramble, 4 of 4, 1 touchdown)

RE Olivier Vernon: 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hits on 19 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 4 stops

MLB Kevin Burnett: 7 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 9 blitzes, allowed 3 catches for 51 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections

P Brandon Fields: 6 punts for 323 yards, 3 inside 20, 5 returns for 23 yards, 50.0 net yards per punt

Duds

RB Reggie Bush: Rushed for 17 yards (16 yards after contact) on 12 attempts, 1 broken tackle, allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 9 pass block snaps, 5 catches for 44 yards on 6 attempts, 1 drop

RG John Jerry: Allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 37 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 2 yards on 2 carries

WR Brian Hartline: Was not thrown to on 36 pass snaps

FS Chris Clemons: 6 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, allowed 3 catches for 63 yards on 3 attempts

RE Jared Odrick: Did not record a pressure on 38 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

DT Paul Soliai: Did not record a pressure on 18 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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St. Louis Rams at Miami Dolphins: Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 6 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Rams

St. Louis Rams (3-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-3)

The Rams appear to be the public’s new hot young team. After an impressive defensive effort and a 14 point home win over the previously undefeated Cardinals, the Rams now stand at 3-2 and are over .500 for the first time since 2006. They are the publicly backed dogs in this game. I love to bet against the public anyway, but there are several reasons why I feel the public is really wrong here and this is coming from someone who had the Rams as a 9 win team before the season.

For one, their opponents, the Arizona Cardinals, were overrated. They were and still are the league’s 28th ranked team in terms of yards per play differential, thanks to a dead last ranking in offensive yards per play. With Kevin Kolb under center, no running game, and no offensive line, the Cardinals’ offensive catastrophe was inevitable. As good as the Cardinals’ defense is, their offense is equally bad. The Rams have a good defense and it’s one of the reasons I liked them before the season, but they’re not as good as they looked last Thursday Night.

Speaking of Thursday Night, weird things happen on Thursday Night. With 3 days to prepare, it’s often ugly football and has some weird results because one team, often the “superior team” is completely unprepared. I don’t put a ton of stock into the results of these games in general so I don’t put a ton of stock into the Rams’ defensive shutdown of an incredibly poor Cardinals offense, especially since these games tend to be lower scoring anyway (this week’s game between Pittsburgh and Tennessee was the first time the total went over on Thursday Night this year).

So their defense is good, but not as good as they looked last Thursday Night, what about the offense? Well, one of the reasons I liked the Rams coming into the season, in addition to a strong defense, was because I was expecting them to have better health offensively. Injuries decimated their offensive line last year, as well as Sam Bradford’s favorite receiver Danny Amendola. So what’s happened this year? Well, injuries have decimated their offensive line, as well as Sam Bradford’s favorite receiver Danny Amendola.

Left tackle Rodger Saffold is out for at least another week. Center Scott Wells is done for the year. Rokevious Watkins, who stepped in at left guard when Robert Turner moved to center, is also out. The Rams are starting 3 guys on their offensive front who either weren’t starters to begin the year or have had to change positions. Left tackle, center, and right guard were their strong positions on the line coming into the year. 2 of those 3 starters are out, leaving Harvey Dahl as the only competent starter on a line otherwise comprised of journeyman. As a result, their offensive line ranks 30th in the league in pass block efficiency.

Meanwhile, the Amendola injury really stings. Without him, they simply have no playmakers in the receiving corps. Even though he missed most of last week with injury, he still accounts for close to 40% of their receiving yards on the season. His absence was noticeable last week. After he left, Bradford completed just 2 of his final 9 passes.

This offense looked awfully similar to the one that ranked dead last in the league in points per game last year and it makes sense considering it’s pretty much the same personnel. Some of that was just Arizona’s defense and an improved and matured Sam Bradford, as well as better coaching, will protect this team from being that bad, but this offense takes a major hit without Amendola and I don’t think this line fully takes that into account (more on that later).

One other major difference between this year’s offense and last year’s offense is Steven Jackson. The now 29-year-old back is averaging just 3.5 YPC, as opposed to the 4.4 YPC he averaged last season. Considering his age and career usage, this is a concern and I don’t expect the injuries to their offensive line and receiving corps to have a positive impact on this. In fact, it’ll probably be negative because he’s now the only one defenses really need to game plan for and they can sell out on the run.

The Dolphins, this week, are the league’s #1 ranked run defense and it’s not even close as no one is within a half yard of their 2.7 YPC average. No lead back has gained more than 3.0 YPC in any game against them so far, very impressive considering they’ve faced, among others, Arian Foster and Darren McFadden. It’s just not a good matchup for the Rams.

Back to this line, injuries not even taken into account, the Rams rank 22nd in the league in yards per play differential. The difference between their yards per play differential and the Dolphins’ is .7 in favor of Miami, which translates to a “real line” of -7.5 in favor of Miami. Given that, we have at least 3.5 points of line value with the Dolphins and that’s if you don’t take Amendola’s injury into account. I think it should be taken into account a good deal and this line has only moved a half point since last week despite the fact that both teams pulled upsets last week, so I don’t think it has really taken that injury into account.

On to the other team that pulled an upset last week, I believe the Dolphins are the team that should be the public’s hot young team. The Dolphins are 2-3 right now, but they could easily be 3-2 or 4-1 having lost two straight games in overtime before last week’s upset win in Cincinnati. Since their week 1 blowout loss in Houston, which doesn’t look so bad now, they’ve blown out Oakland, lost twice in overtime to the Jets and Dolphins, and beaten the Bengals.

The league’s 6th ranked scoring defense in 2011, they’ve picked up right where they left off led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Cameron Wake. They can run the ball and Ryan Tannehill seems to have settled in to life as a starting quarterback in the NFL. They rank 10th in the league in yards per play differential. I wish there were some applicable trends and that we were getting field goal protection with the Dolphins, but I do feel they are the right side for a small play.

Public lean: St. Louis (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Sharps lean: MIA 12 STL 7

Final update: No change.

Miami Dolphins 20 St. Louis Rams 10

Pick against spread: Miami -4 (-110) 2 units

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Miami Dolphins: Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#18)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Dolphins

Last week: 18 (+7)

Record: 2-3

The Dolphins are 2-3 right now, but they could easily be 3-2 or 4-1 having lost two straight games in overtime. Since their week 1 blowout loss in Houston, which doesn’t look so bad, they’ve blown out Oakland, lost twice in overtime to the Jets and Dolphins, and beaten the Dolphins. The league’s 6th ranked scoring defense in 2011, they’ve picked up right where they left off led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Cameron Wake. They can run the ball and Ryan Tannehill seems to have settled in to life as a starting quarterback in the NFL. His inconsistency as a rookie will keep this team from being a true playoff contender, but like I said last week (and like they did last week), they could play spoiler against any “superior” teams that take them lightly.

Miami

Studs

C Mike Pouncey: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 20 yards on 5 attempts

LG Richie Incognito: Did not allow a pressure on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for -1 yards on 1 attempt

LE Cameron Wake: 2 sacks and 6 quarterback hurries on 44 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

DT Randy Starks: 1 interception, 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 40 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop

MLB Karlos Dansby: 5 solo tackles, 4 stops, 2 quarterback hurries on 8 pass rush snaps, allowed 3 catches for 29 yards on 3 attempts

CB Nolan Carroll: Allowed 2 catches for 23 yards on 5 attempts, 2 pass deflections, 4 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

SS Reshad Jones: Allowed 1 catch for 5 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

Duds

FB Jovorskie Lane: Rushed for -5 yards (0 after contact) on 2 attempts, 1 fumble, 2 catches for 20 yards on 2 attempts, 1 penalty, run blocked for 0 yards on 2 attempts

RE Jared Odrick: 1 sack on 44 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 missed tackle

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