Eagles

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (6-5-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)

The Eagles got blown out last week in Cincinnati and have been unimpressive offensively since losing stud right tackle Lane Johnson to suspension, but they still have a strong defense and they get their top-2 skill position players, wide receiver Jordan Matthews and running back Ryan Mathews, back from injury this week. They are at least as good as their opponents this week, the Washington Redskins. The Eagles have an advantage in point differential (+23 vs. +8) and in first down rate differential (20th vs. 24th). Despite that, the Eagles are 2.5 point home underdogs and the public is all over the Redskins, as a result of the Redskins’ better record (6-5-1 vs. 5-7). I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it definitely does here, as the Eagles should be favored by a field goal. I’d need the full field goal with the Eagles to put money on the spread, but the money line is a good value either way.

Philadelphia Eagles 26 Washington Redskins 24 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-7-1)

Before the season started, I had the Bengals on my list of teams that I thought would disappoint. They won 12 games last season and were 10-2 before losing quarterback Andy Dalton for the season with injury, but outside of Dalton they barely had an injuries last season, something that usually doesn’t happen two years in a row. They also lost of number of players in free agency, including cornerback Leon Hall, safety Reggie Nelson, and wide receivers Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones.

Things have been even worse than I expected though. Dalton has stayed healthy, but the Bengals haven’t stayed nearly as healthy as last season around him on either side of the ball. A couple weeks ago, their season went from bad to worse when they lost wide receiver AJ Green for an extended period of time with a slight hamstring tear and running back Giovani Bernard for the season with a torn ACL. Both injuries came in a close home loss to the Bills and then the following week they suffered a close road loss in Baltimore, dropping them to 3-7-1.

Now I actually think the Bengals are underrated. Many of their losses have been close, with their last 3 coming by a combined 10 points. Dalton might not have Bernard or Green, but Tyler Eifert is healthy, which they didn’t have earlier in the season. He still has a strong offensive line in front of him and didn’t play badly against a tough Baltimore defense last week. The Bengals also have a decent defense. On the season, they rank 16th in first down rate differential, not terrible and actually one spot above the Eagles.

The Bengals aren’t as good as that suggests without Bernard and Green, but the Eagles aren’t healthy either, missing running back Ryan Mathews and possibly wide receiver Jordan Matthews with injury. They also haven’t been the same offensively since losing right tackle Lane Johnson to suspension. Despite that, the Eagles are favored by 1.5 here in Cincinnati, because the Bengals are an underrated team. The Bengals are also in a much better spot, as they go to Cleveland next week, while the Eagles host the Redskins in a key divisional matchup. The Eagles could definitely overlook a 3-7-1 non-conference opponent, while the Bengals figure to be very focused with the worst team in the league on deck. Home underdogs are 79-44 ATS before being road favorites since 2002. I like the Bengals a good amount this week.

Cincinnati Bengals 20 Philadelphia Eagles 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +1.5

Confidence: Medium

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Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (4-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)

I’ve been going back and forth on whether or not I want to put any money on the Packers this week. They should be the right side, but they’ve been so inconsistent this season that it’s tough to be confident in them. Early in the year, it was their offense that was disappointing. Now, their offense has picked up, but their defense has been atrocious, allowing a ridiculous 12 touchdowns in their last 2 games. They’re getting healthier on defense, with middle linebacker Jake Ryan and cornerback Damarious Randall returning this week and outside linebacker Clay Matthews returning in a limited role last week and set to play a full set of snaps this week, but none of those three players were playing particularly well before getting hurt, so I’m not sure how much it’ll help. The rookie Ryan was playing the best of the three, but his return coincides with fellow middle linebacker Blake Martinez getting hurt and missing this game, so Ryan’s return might not be anything more than a wash.

Typically, the Packers have done well after a loss in the Aaron Rodgers era, going 27-16 ATS off of a loss with Rodgers under center, but if their defense can’t get it together that won’t matter. We are getting some line value with the Packers as 4 point underdogs, as these teams are more or less even, meaning the hometown Eagles should be favored by a field goal at most at home. The Eagles are also not nearly as good offensively as the Titans and Redskins, the Packers’ last two opponents. I’m going to hold out for this line to move to 4.5 at some point before Monday night, but I might ultimately end up putting money on the Packers at 4 if the line doesn’t move.

Monday Update: Holding out for 4.5 worked, as I was able to get it this morning. If you can get it, I’d recommend a bet, but I think avoid betting on the Packers at 4. Normally I’d be all over the Packers in this spot, but they’ve been too inconsistent this year.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Green Bay Packers 23

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Philadelphia Eagles at Seattle Seahawks: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) at Seattle Seahawks (6-2-1)

The Seahawks pulled a big upset last week, winning as 8 point underdogs in New England. Considering how well the Seahawks have played in the 2nd half of the season in recent years, that big upset shouldn’t have come as a big surprise. The Seahawks have always done very well in the second half of the regular season in the Pete Carroll era (since 2011), going 31-9-1 ATS in games 9-16 since Carroll arrived. This has been very noticeable on the stat sheet for Russell Wilson, as he’s completed 66% of his passes for an average of 8.7 YPA, 66 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions in the second half of the regular season in his career.

Considering how well this organization is run from top to bottom, it doesn’t surprise me they get better as the season goes on. It also wouldn’t surprise me at all if they went on another second half run. Safety Kam Chancellor has returned to the lineup, while quarterback Russell Wilson is much healthier after playing through early season injuries. The Seahawks also get running back Thomas Rawls back from injury this week. He’ll split touches out of the backfield with last week’s breakout star, rookie 3rd round pick CJ Prosise.

They’re also in a great spot here with only a trip to Tampa Bay on deck. The early line has them as 6.5 point road favorites. Favorites of 6 or more are 89-50 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6 or more again. With no distractions on the horizon, the Seahawks should be able to be completely focused for an inferior opponent this week. The Eagles aren’t a bad team, but the line isn’t that high either (6.5). The Seahawks could be about to go on another late season run, so I have confidence that they’ll win by at least a touchdown.

Seattle Seahawks 24 Philadelphia Eagles 13

Pick against the spread: Seattle -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (6-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)

The Falcons are 6-3 and one of the better teams in the league this season thanks primarily to a high flying offense that leads the NFL with a first down or touchdown on a whopping 43.26% of snaps, including 50% in back-to-back games against the Packers and Buccaneers coming into this game. No other offense is even close, as the 2nd place Cowboys have a first down rate of 41.74% and the 3rd place Saints are at 40.63%. The defense hasn’t been nearly as good, allowing the 4th highest first down rate in the NFL, but their offense has been good enough to compensate, so they rank 4th in first down rate differential entering this one.

The Falcons offense will probably have to play at a very high level once again this week, as the Falcons’ defense is without cornerback Desmond Trufant, arguably their best defensive player and certainly their best defensive back. Without him, an already weak defense gets even worse. The Eagles are not a great team and have fallen back to earth after a 3-0 start and sit here at 4-4, but they’re not bad either. They enter this game 16th in first down rate differential. I’m not confident either way in this game, but the Eagles are the pick as 1.5 point home underdogs against the Falcons without Trufant.

Atlanta Falcons 24 Philadelphia Eagles 23

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +1.5

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (4-3) at New York Giants (4-3)

I’m torn on this one. On one hand, the Eagles are in a great spot in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 133-102 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 105-70 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is even true with teams off of overtime losses, like the Eagles here (6-2 ATS over that time period). This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 226-241 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.85 points per game, as opposed to 323-453 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game.

On the other hand, we’re getting absolutely no line value with the Eagles here at 2.5. For some reason, this line shifted from 3 on the early line last week to 2.5 this week, despite Philadelphia’s loss and New York’s bye. Considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, that’s a pretty significant line movement. At 3, I’d probably take the Eagles, but it’s tough to do so at 2.5 even with them in a great spot because the Giants are actually a little bit better of a team. They’ve managed a 4-3 record despite a poor -7 turnover margin and a tough schedule. They rank 9th in first down percentage differential, a few spots higher than the Eagles, who rank 13th in that metric. I’m taking the Giants, but for a no confidence pick.

New York Giants 20 Philadelphia Eagles 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -2.5

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys: 2016 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) at Dallas Cowboys (5-1)

The Cowboys are coming off of a huge upset win in Green Bay 2 weeks ago and are healthy coming off their bye, with top wide receiver Dez Bryant and top cornerback Orlando Scandrick both returning from extended absences. Now back at home, they’re favored by 4.5 points against a good Philadelphia team. Considering about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer and considering the Cowboys’ struggles covering at home in recent years, this line seems a little too high. The Cowboys are 29-21 ATS on the road since 2010, which is impressive, but just 17-34 ATS at home over the same time period, including 9-26 ATS as home favorites and 3-10 ATS as divisional home favorites. Over that time period, they’ve been outscored by an average of 0.57 points per game on the road and outscored opponents by an average of 0.87 points per game at home, meaning home field advantage hasn’t even been worth a full point for them in recent years. That makes sense, as the Cowboys have fans throughout the country and get great support on the road.

That being said, it’s hard to be too confident in the Eagles, who have struggled offensively since losing right tackle Lane Johnson to suspension and who will be without top run stuffer Bennie Logan. The Eagles enter this game 11th in first down percentage differential, while the Cowboys are in 6th in that metric. The Cowboys are also in a way better spot, with a trip to Cleveland on deck. The early line has them as 7+ road favorites against the Browns and teams are 32-17 ATS since 2012 before being 7+ road favorites. While the Cowboys don’t have any upcoming distractions, the Eagles have to turn around and play another tough divisional game against the Giants next week. The Eagles are also coming off of a huge home upset victory against the Vikings and teams are 56-77 ATS off of home upset victories since 2012. I’m taking Philadelphia, but I couldn’t be confident in them unless we were getting 6 points.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Philadelphia Eagles 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +4.5

Confidence: Low

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Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (5-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)

The 5-0 Vikings are the NFL’s final remaining undefeated team. They’ve been impressive overall, but their offense actually has struggled to move the ball effectively for most of the season. On 310 offensive plays, they have just 87 first downs (fewest in the NFL) and 9 touchdowns (2nd fewest in the NFL), a 30.97% first down percentage, 31st in the NFL. As a result, they rank just 16th in first down percentage differential, despite an outstanding defense that allows the 4th lowest first down percentage.

They’re 5-0 largely because of a +11 turnover margin and a +4 return touchdown margin. That’s very impressive, but it’s also unsustainable. In fact, there’s almost no week-to-week correlation in turnover margins; teams that have strong turnover margins in one week are just as likely to have poor turnover margins the following week as any other team. If the Vikings are going to continue winning, they’re going to have to play better and won’t be able to rely on the turnover margin.

They have a tough test this week on the road in Philadelphia and have a good chance to lose their first game of the season. The Eagles were the best team in the league through the first 3 games of the season, defeating Cleveland, Chicago, and Pittsburgh all by double digits, the only team in the league to win each of their first 3 games by double digits. They’ve since lost 2 straight, but their loss in Detroit came by just one point and it’s very possible they got caught looking forward to this game in last week’s 7 point loss in Washington.

Overall on the season, they still rank 17th in first down percentage differential, just one spot behind the Vikings and they should be much more focused and this week. Last week’s loss in Washington moved this line from Philadelphia being favored by a point on the early line to Philadelphia now being 3 point home underdogs. About 1 in 4 games are decided by 3 points or fewer, so getting a full field goal is more than it seems. Considering I have these teams about even and the Eagles should probably be favored by a full field goal at home, getting the full field goal with them is a great value.

I love to fade significant week-to-week line movements whenever it makes sense and it makes sense here. Also, despite the line movement, the public is still all over Minnesota and I also love fading the public whenever it makes sense as the public always loses money in the long run. The only reason Philadelphia isn’t my pick of the week is they have another tough game on deck against the Cowboys, while the Vikings have a very easy game in Chicago, meaning they have no real upcoming potential distractions, while the Eagles do. Teams are 81-57 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 4+ and the Vikings are 5.5 point favorites in Chicago on the early line. I still like the Eagles a lot at a field goal though, as a field goal is a good amount of protection at home against a team with an underwhelming offense.

Philadelphia Eagles 17 Minnesota Vikings 16 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +3

Confidence: High

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Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) at Washington Redskins (3-2)

This line was even last week, but has since shifted a full three points, with the Eagles now favored by a field goal in Washington, despite the fact that Philadelphia lost in Detroit and Washington won in Baltimore. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant line movements, but Philadelphia has been on my underrated list pretty much all year and I think it’s fair that they’re field goal favorites here against a Redskins team that is significantly inferior, especially without talented tight end Jordan Reed. The Eagles enter this game 2nd in first down percentage differential, while the Redskins are at 26th. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins has a 14:13 touchdown to interception ratio without Jordan Reed over the past two seasons, as opposed to 32:12 when he’s in the lineup. That might not all be him, but a lot of it is. I can’t be confident in the Eagles at a 3, but they should be the right side.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -3

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions: 2016 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) at Detroit Lions (1-3)

Coming into the season, I had the Eagles atop my underrated teams list. I bet on them in each of their first 3 games, first as mere 3.5 point home favorites against the lowly Bears, then as 3.5 point road underdogs against the lowly Bears, then as 4 point home underdogs for the Pittsburgh Steelers week 3, prior to their week 4 bye. Not only did the Eagles cover all 3 games, but they covered them easily and actually have the league’s best point differential at +65 (despite only playing 3 games) and rank 1st in the league in first down percentage differential through their first 3 games. They might not finish the season as the league’s best team, but so far that’s what they’ve been.

Now, they no longer seem underrated. After their dominant performance against the Steelers, they come out of their bye as 3.5 point road favorites against a capable Detroit team. Now that they’re no longer underrated, I’m actually going to go the other way. The Eagles have had two weeks to hear about how great they are and the lines have adjusted, as this line was 1 in favor of the Lions last week on the early line (the Lions close upset loss in Chicago likely had something to do with that too). I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be the result of week-to-week overreactions. On top of that, teams like the Eagles who are coming off of a home upset victory tend not to cover the following week, likely because they’re overconfident and overvalued. Teams are 52-75 ATS in that spot since 2012. Despite that, the public is still all over the Eagles and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as well, as they always lose money in the long run.

The reason this isn’t a bigger play is because of how undermanned the Lions are on defense right now. They’re missing two of their three best defensive players with injury once again (linebacker DeAndre Levy and defensive end Ezekiel Ansah) and it has shown this season. Fortunately, their offense has remained strong and, even if this game isn’t close for most of the game, I like their chances of a late backdoor cover if they’re down by 10 late. As long as this line is higher than 3, I think it’s worth putting money on. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. The Eagles are a good team, but not as good as they’ve looked so far, so I like getting 3.5 with the Lions at home.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Detroit Lions 23

Pick against the spread: Detroit +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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