Philadelphia Eagles (4-2) at Dallas Cowboys (5-1)
The Cowboys are coming off of a huge upset win in Green Bay 2 weeks ago and are healthy coming off their bye, with top wide receiver Dez Bryant and top cornerback Orlando Scandrick both returning from extended absences. Now back at home, they’re favored by 4.5 points against a good Philadelphia team. Considering about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer and considering the Cowboys’ struggles covering at home in recent years, this line seems a little too high. The Cowboys are 29-21 ATS on the road since 2010, which is impressive, but just 17-34 ATS at home over the same time period, including 9-26 ATS as home favorites and 3-10 ATS as divisional home favorites. Over that time period, they’ve been outscored by an average of 0.57 points per game on the road and outscored opponents by an average of 0.87 points per game at home, meaning home field advantage hasn’t even been worth a full point for them in recent years. That makes sense, as the Cowboys have fans throughout the country and get great support on the road.
That being said, it’s hard to be too confident in the Eagles, who have struggled offensively since losing right tackle Lane Johnson to suspension and who will be without top run stuffer Bennie Logan. The Eagles enter this game 11th in first down percentage differential, while the Cowboys are in 6th in that metric. The Cowboys are also in a way better spot, with a trip to Cleveland on deck. The early line has them as 7+ road favorites against the Browns and teams are 32-17 ATS since 2012 before being 7+ road favorites. While the Cowboys don’t have any upcoming distractions, the Eagles have to turn around and play another tough divisional game against the Giants next week. The Eagles are also coming off of a huge home upset victory against the Vikings and teams are 56-77 ATS off of home upset victories since 2012. I’m taking Philadelphia, but I couldn’t be confident in them unless we were getting 6 points.
Dallas Cowboys 23 Philadelphia Eagles 20
Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +4.5