Eagles

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Eagles, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (1-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-4)

One powerful trend is that teams who lose as divisional home favorites are 49-24 ATS since 2002 as road dogs in the rematch. It makes sense. Matchups where the team who is favored is dependent on the location tend to be matchups between very even teams and very even teams tend to split the season series no matter what. If you’ve lost as home favorites, you have to win as road underdogs in this situation to split the season series. Teams do win as road underdogs at a .500 rate since 2002 (38-38) and an even higher percentage, as previously mentioned, about 2/3rds, cover the spread. The Giants have room to play with here because they are 5.5 point underdogs so they can easily cover even if they don’t win.

However, I question how even these teams are. Philadelphia isn’t as good as their record at 3-4 as the 3 teams they’ve beaten have a combined 3-17 record. They have a terrible defense, which allows their opponents to move the chains at a 78% rate, despite the easy schedule. Their offense is strong, moving the chains at a 76% rate, but not enough to keep pace with what their defense is allowing.

However, the Giants are even worse in that aspect. They are allowing opponents to move the chains at a 77% rate and they are only moving the chains at a 66% rate. Part of that has to do with their terrible turnover margin though. Their turnover margin is a league worst -14, but Eli Manning probably won’t throw an interception on 5.6% of his passes going forward, considering his career rate is 3.4%. The Giants also probably won’t recover just 40% of their fumbles going forward. Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent, so this might not kill them going forward like it has thus far.

That being said, they didn’t look good against Minnesota, despite winning the turnover margin by 2. They looked much better against the Bears, when they lost the turnover margin by 3, but only lost the game by 6 and would have probably won in Chicago if not for a pick six. On paper, they are the more talented of these two teams, but games aren’t played on paper and there’s a chance they just are a marginal and inconsistent team all season. That being said, I’m afraid to go against them with the trend on their side given that I do believe they’re the better team on paper. They’re also a dangerous team as road underdogs in the Eli Manning/Tom Coughlin era, going 33-19 ATS as road dogs since 2004. I’m taking the Giants, but I’m not confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 27 New York Giants 23

Pick against spread: NY Giants +5.5

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles, Uncategorized

Last week: 22 (+0)

Record: 3-4

This week, Nick Foles struggled and got hurt and Matt Barkley absolutely sucked. And just like that, Michael Vick’s hamstring is magically better. Foles was awful before his injury, completing 11 of 29 for 80 yards, but Barkley was somehow even worse. He completed 11 of 20 for 129 yards, but he also threw 3 picks. Vick isn’t great either so this is a big setback as it looked like Foles could be their quarterback of the future after a strong 6 quarters against the Giants and the Buccaneers. It’s very possible that the quarterback of the future for Chip Kelly isn’t on the roster right now. He could easily take a quarterback in the first round this year, particularly if his former quarterback at Oregon Marcus Mariota comes out.

Week 7 Studs

LT Jason Peters

LG Evan Mathis

C Jason Kelce

RE Fletcher Cox

Week 7 Duds

QB Nick Foles

QB Matt Barkley

TE Brent Celek

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Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Cowboys, Eagles, Uncategorized

Dallas Cowboys (3-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-3)

I’ve maintained the whole time that the Cowboys are the best team in the NFC East, especially with the rest of the division flopping in spectacular fashion this season. The Eagles are the best of the rest this season, going 3-3 with wins over both the Giants and Redskins. However, their record is misleading as the combined record of the 3 teams they beat is 1-15 (Tampa Bay 0-5, NY Giants 0-6, Washington 1-4). That being said, this is probably the worst possible time for the Cowboys to be facing the Eagles in Philadelphia for reasons I’ll get into.

Because of that, I totally understand why the Eagles are favored. Nick Foles has been excellent in a game and a half in relief of an injured Michael Vick to the point where Chip Kelly essentially admitted that Vick won’t necessary get his job back when he’s healthy. I think that’s the right move. It was my suspicion all along that a washed up Vick was being made to look better than he is by Kelly’s offense and the way Foles has played in the last game and a half would seem to support that.

Foles obviously isn’t the runner Vick is, but you don’t need to be to run Chip Kelly’s offense. Kelly has done a great job catering to Foles’ strengths. He started out completing 16 of 25 for 197 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Giants, which I guess isn’t incredibly impressive because it’s the Giants. However, the Buccaneers have a very solid defense and Foles torched them for 296 yards and 3 touchdowns on 22 of 31 passing. The Eagles are already moving the chains at a 79% rate on the season thanks to play makers like LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson, but if Foles continues to be an upgrade over Vick, we could see that number go into the 80% range.

The Eagles haven’t faced a terrible tough schedule remember, but the Cowboys don’t present much of a challenge defensively either. They have talent, but they’re allowing opponents to move the chains at a 79% rate, as injuries have taken a huge toll on them. They were expected to start Anthony Spencer, Jay Ratliff, Jason Hatcher, and DeMarcus Ware on their defensive line, but Spencer is out for the season with knee surgery, Ratliff was waived/injured rather than being activated off of the PUP, and DeMarcus Ware will miss anywhere from a week to a month with an injury of his own.

That could be the killer considering how important he is to this defense. Defensive Line Coach Rod Marinelli has done a good job of coaching up backup caliber talents this season, but the downgrade from DeMarcus Ware to Kyle Wilbur might be just too much. Between that and youngsters Morris Claiborne and Bruce Carter failing to adapt to Monte Kiffin’s scheme, the Cowboys have had a hard time preventing opponents from scoring without takeaways, forcing just 22 punts in 6 games. The Eagles should basically move the ball at will against them.

They might have to because the Eagles’ defense sucks even more. It’s one of the reasons why I think and have always thought the Cowboys will eventually win this division. They are allowing opponents to move the chains at an 80% rate, a number that was much higher before they ran into the Giants’ and Buccaneers’ incompetent offenses. Even Mike Glennon lit up their secondary last week.

The Cowboys offense is playing very well this season, as anyone who saw them play the Broncos will tell you, as they are moving the chains at a 79% rate. Their offensive line is night and day better than last season, thanks to a huge bounce back season from Doug Free and the additions of Travis Frederick and Brian Waters. This is giving Tony Romo plenty of time to hit his talented receiving corps, despite the fact that Miles Austin really has yet to contribute this season.

However, injuries hurt them here as well as DeMarco Murray is out for at least a week with an injury (surprise). He was a big part of the reason why the Cowboys had one of the better rushing attacks in the NFL thus far this season. Joseph Randle will be his replacement and he struggled against the Redskins in relief of Murray, rushing for 17 yards on 11 carries, though he did score a touchdown. He could be better with a week of practice as the starter and against a weak Philadelphia defense and strong run blocking will help him, but it’s an obvious downgrade.

There is also a trend in the Eagles’ favor, as teams are 110-81 ATS since 1989 as favorites against an opponent who beat them twice the previous season. Normally I ignore the revenge game factor, with a few exceptions, because there is no trend supporting it and because I generally subscribe to the theory that if a team beat you once, it makes it more likely they’ll do it again, not less. That being said, there is a trend supporting this and it makes sense. If you’re favored, that generally means you are better or equal to an opponent and the fact that they beat you previously shouldn’t matter to that. The Cowboys covered in this spot last week against the Redskins. Of course, I’m, not exactly sure the Eagles are better or equal to the Cowboys.

Between the emergence of Foles and the Cowboys’ injuries, I’m less certain than I’ve been all season that the Cowboys are the team to beat in the NFC East and I’m not certain at all they’ll be able to win in Philadelphia without their best defensive player and with a situational trend working against them. I also hate backing a publicly backed underdog, especially a publicly backed short underdog. The public feels the Cowboys will win. The odds makers feel the Eagles will win. And I hate siding with the public on an issue like that. However, I’m taking the Cowboys in an “upset” on principle. I’m not confident at all though. This game will be a shootout that could go either way.

Dallas Cowboys 34 Philadelphia Eagles 33 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Dallas +2.5

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles, Uncategorized

Last week: 24 (+2)

Record: 3-3

Nick Foles is better than Michael Vick. I had a suspicion that Chip Kelly’s offense was making a washed up Vick look better than he was and I’m more convinced of that now that he made Nick Foles look even better than Vick looked. He completed 22 of 31 for 296 yards and 3 touchdowns against an actually solid Tampa Bay defense. The Eagles have essentially said that Vick won’t necessarily get him starting job back when he returns from injury and I think that’s the right move. The Eagles’ defense is still too terrible for them to win the division unless Dallas continues to crumble from injury and the combined record of the 3 teams they’ve beaten is 1-14, but Foles’ emergence is a positive going forward.

Week 6 Studs

LG Evan Mathis

C Jason Kelce

TE Brent Celek

RE Fletcher Cox

LE Cedric Thornton

Week 6 Duds

MLB DeMeco Ryans

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Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Eagles, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (2-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4)

This is another one I could really go both ways on. On one hand, the Eagles don’t deserve to be favorites here. Much has been made about all the problems the Buccaneers have, from Josh Freeman, to Greg Schiano, to MRSA, but they still have a lot of talent. Mike Glennon isn’t a very good quarterback under center, but they are still holding opponents to a 72% rate of moving the chains defensively, thanks to guys like Gerald McCoy, Lavonte David, and Darrelle Revis. They had 7 of my top-200 players before the season and 6 of them will play this week (Carl Nicks is out). The Eagles’ defense isn’t very good at all, so, in his 2nd career start after a week off, he could be significantly better than he was in the opener against a much tougher Arizona defense.

On the other hand, Nick Foles looked really good in relief of Michael Vick against the Giants. Yes, it was just the Giants’ defense, but he completed 16 of 25 for 194 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Vick completed 6 of 14 for 105 yards. The team was noticeably better when he was on the field. I’ve held all season that Chip Kelly’s offense is making a washed up Vick look significantly better than he is (ProFootballFocus agrees, as they’ve graded him below average as a passer this season). I think his offense can do the same with Nick Foles. The offense will obviously look different with him out there, but he should continue to get open receivers and he should continue to be supported by LeSean McCoy on the ground.

At the end of the day, I’m going with Tampa Bay, but I really wish we were getting a whole field goal or more with them at home. I don’t think Philadelphia has any business being favored on the road against a team with a solid supporting cast, because of how terrible their defense is. One trend does hurt them, as non-divisional road favorites are 17-29 ATS since 1989 before being divisional home dogs, though the Eagles could end up being favored over the Cowboys at home next week depending on the results of this week. However, I’d need at least a field goal to be confident at all.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

Pick against spread: Tampa Bay +2.5

Confidence: None

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Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles, Uncategorized

Last week: 23 (-1)

Record: 2-3

The Eagles blew out the Giants in New York this week, but that’s not really that impressive. Even after facing the Giants’ pathetic offense, they have allowed 133 first downs to 18 punts forced and they are allowing opponents to move the chains on 82% of opportunities, tied for worst in the NFL. Offensively, Michael Vick is out for at least a week (this is my shocked face), but the Eagles’ offense shouldn’t be worse without him. They’ll definitely look different, but Chip Kelly can run his offense with a bunch of different types of quarterbacks. Like he was doing with Vick, he’ll make Foles look better than he is.

Week 5 Studs

RB LeSean McCoy

Week 5 Duds

C Jason Kelce

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Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Eagles, Giants, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at New York Giants (0-4)

The Giants have been outscored 69-7 in their last 2 games. That actually is a good thing for their chances this week. Teams are 36-18 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more. That makes sense. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that situation. The Giants are definitely embarrassed at this point and they are probably undervalued, as mere 1 point favorites here against a poor Philadelphia team. However, they might not be overlooked by the Eagles in a huge divisional matchup. Dallas plays Denver this week and Washington is on a bye so the winner of this game will probably be, at most, a game back of the divisional lead.

Philadelphia also has a powerful trend on their side. Teams are 90-55 ATS as road dogs off of a road loss since 2008, a trend that covers at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. However, it’s not like they’re big dogs here (1 point) so I don’t know if it’s that powerful. Ultimately, these two trends might not have a ton of effect on the game.

That being said, the Giants should be the right side. I think this line is too low. The Giants are a better team than the Eagles, in my opinion. They’ve been destroyed by turnovers this year, with a -9 turnover margin, 3rd worst in the NFL. However, that type of thing tends to be inconsistent. Eli Manning has a career 3.3% interception rate. He won’t throw an interception on 6.0% of his attempts for the rest of the season. The Giants also won’t continue recovering 30.8% of fumbles on the ground all season.

The Giants’ offensive struggles go beyond turnovers this season, but they should be able to move the ball here because the Eagles have the type of defense that you can do whatever you want with. They’ve allowed 112 first downs and forced 11 punts all season. They’re allowing opponents to move the chains on 85% of opportunities. The Giants’ defense isn’t great either, allowing opponents to move the chains on 78% of opportunities, but I like the Giants in a must win game more than the Eagles and I think they’re the better team.

New York Giants 31 Philadelphia Eagles 27

Pick against spread: NY Giants -1

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles, Uncategorized

Last week: 23

Record: 1-3

The Eagles have still really only looked good in that one half against an awful Washington defense. They looked competitive with the Broncos early on, but were kicking field goals instead of scoring touchdowns in the first half, which is not how you beat the Broncos. Down big in the 2nd half, they couldn’t do anything to keep it close. It’s not Chip Kelly’s fault. He has a defense that continues to be terrible, forcing a league worst 11 punts, while his quarterback is turnover prone and has problems converting in the red zone. He’ll do a better job with better personnel in 2014 and beyond.

Week 4 Studs

None

Week 4 Duds

RT Lane Johnson

MLB DeMeco Ryans

CB Cary Williams

FS Earl Wolff

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Philadelphia Eagles at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 4 NFL Picks, Broncos, Eagles, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (1-2) at Denver Broncos (3-0)

Teams who have blowout wins on Monday Night Football tend to carry that over into the following week. Teams are 29-13 ATS off of a win by 21 or more points on Monday Night Football since 2002. The Broncos didn’t win by 21+ last week, because of a late fumble that immediately led to an Oakland touchdown and shrunk the margin from 23 to 16. However, they completely dominated the Raiders in a way even worse than the final score would suggest.

The Broncos had 31 first downs to just 1 punt, while the Raiders had 13 first downs and punted 6 times. The Raiders actually won the turnover battle by 2, recovering both of the Broncos’ fumbles, both of which were pretty unforced. Teams who win the turnover battle by 2 win, on average, 82.1% of the time and outscore opponents by 9.64 points per game. They might not have won by 21 or more, but they certainly dominated in a way that could be carried over into this game.

I also think this is a very poor matchup for the Eagles. Their defense has no chance of stopping Peyton Manning and company. The Broncos have 78 first downs and 13 punts this season, while the Eagles have allowed 77 first downs and forced 9 punts. There’s a very good chance that the Broncos score on almost every possession and surpass 40 points in this one. The Eagles’ offense, meanwhile, might not be able to execute their game plan as they’d like because of the altitude in Denver. They won’t be used to the thinner air and that could easily hurt their ability to run a no huddle, hurry up offense.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because there’s no line value. The Broncos are favored by 11 points here which is a lot considering the Eagles aren’t a terrible team or anything. This line was also a lot lower last week before the Broncos blew out the Raiders and the Eagles lost at home to Kansas City. However, the Broncos should be the right side. They are also my Survivor Pick this week.

Denver Broncos 38 Philadelphia Eagles 20 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Denver -11

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Eagles, Uncategorized

Last week: 20 (-3)

With the exception of the first half against the Redskins, one of the worst defenses in the NFL, the Eagles’ have really not played that well this season. I still believe in Chip Kelly as an NFL coach, but there’s only so much he can do given how bad their defense is and how flawed Michael Vick is as a quarterback. They aren’t moving the ball as well as they were early in the season, as they’ve been facing tougher defenses, they don’t catch teams by surprise, and Michael Vick is missing open guys and turning the ball over. This is putting so much pressure on their defense, as a result of the faster pace, and they just don’t have the talent to handle that.

Week 3 Studs

WR Jason Avant

LG Evan Mathis

RE Fletcher Cox

CB Cary Williams

Week 3 Duds

WR Riley Cooper

RT Lane Johnson

RG Todd Herremans

MLB DeMeco Ryans

MLB Mychal Kendricks

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