Falcons

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 16 NFL Picks, Falcons, NFL Picks, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (14-0) at Atlanta Falcons (7-7)

The Panthers are 14-0, but that doesn’t mean they’ll take their foot off the gas, at least not this week and possibly not at all, as they attempt a perfect season. This week, they’re actually still playing for playoff seeding, as 2 straight losses to finish the season, along with another two straight wins by the Arizona Cardinals drops the Panthers down to the #2 seed. It’s a highly unlikely scenario, but a reason for the Panthers to keep giving full effort, beyond the possible perfect season.

They’re missing running back Jonathan Stewart, but they’re otherwise healthy and they’re obviously a far better team than the Falcons, who they blew out in Carolina two weeks back by the final score of 38-0. This one is in Atlanta, but the Panthers still have a good chance to cover this 7 point spread. They rank 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 16th for the Falcons and they’re in a couple of good spots. They don’t have any upcoming distractions, hosting the Buccaneers next week, against whom they’re projected to be 10 point favorites, according to the early line. Favorites of 6+ are 83-43 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6+ again, as superior teams tend to take care of business and win by a big margin when they don’t have any upcoming distractions.

It also helps the Panthers that they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Road favorites are 46-32 ATS since 2008 off of a road win, as long as it’s their 2nd of two road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 223-224 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.49 points per game, as opposed to 320-435 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.70 points per game. It’s not enough for me to put money on the Panthers given that the public is all over them and that the public always loses money in the long run, but I’m going with Carolina.

Carolina Panthers 27 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against the spread: Carolina -7

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (6-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-8)

This line was even a week ago on the early line, but the Jaguars have since become field goal favorites, a significant line movement, considering about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. I love fading significant line movements whenever it makes sense because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play. The line movement isn’t a surprise, considering the Falcons got clobbered in Carolina last week, 38-0, but the Panthers are arguably the best team in the NFL, far better than the Jaguars. Plus, teams are 51-27 ATS since 2002 off of a loss of 35+ points. It’s counter-intuitive, but it makes sense, as teams tend to be embarrassed, overlooked, and undervalued in that spot. The Falcons could easily be all 3.

The Jaguars are coming off of a huge victory, 51-16 over the Colts, also a big part of the reason why the line moved, but they still rank just 27th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 17th for the Falcons, suggesting this line is too low at 3, especially with the Jaguars missing running back TJ Yeldon and defensive lineman Ryan Davis. The reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Falcons have to turn around and play the Panthers again next week, this time at home, a game in which the early line has them as 6.5 point home underdogs. Teams are 23-56 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 6+. Atlanta’s the pick though.

Jacksonville Jaguars 24 Atlanta Falcons 23

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +3

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers: 2015 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (6-6) at Carolina Panthers (12-0)

The Falcons have lost 5 straight games and 6 of 7 since starting 5-0, to drop them down to 6-6. They still rank 12th in rate of moving the chains differential, but it has to be mentioned that the Falcons have played arguably the league’s easiest schedule thus far and have still been only able to put up overall average results. Their toughest opponents have been the likes of the Saints, Giants, Colts, Vikings, and Eagles and the Panthers are about a touchdown better than all of those teams.

The Panthers come into this game ranking 2nd in rate of moving the chains differential, against a tougher schedule that has included Seattle and Green Bay, and should be favored by at least double digits against a mediocre Falcons team that has not been playing good football of late. I had the Falcons as one of the least talented teams in the league coming into the year. They shocked a lot of people with their 5-0 start, including me, but they didn’t beat anyone of note during that stretch, won just 2 games by more than a touchdown, and have played awful since, with their only other win coming by 3 against a Tennessee team that was missing quarterback Marcus Mariota.

Making matters worse for them is the fact that the Panthers don’t have any upcoming distractions, as they head to the Giants next week, where they’re expected to be 3.5 point favorites, according to the early line. Teams are 114-89 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites and 75-51 ATS over that same time period before being 4+ point road favorites. The Falcons don’t have any upcoming distractions either, going to Jacksonville next week, but not having any distractions tends to benefit the better team more and the Panthers should be able to win by at least two scores. As long as this line is under double digits, I have no problem putting money on the Panthers.

Carolina Panthers 27 Atlanta Falcons 13

Pick against the spread: Carolina -9

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (6-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)

The Falcons started the season a surprising 5-0, but have since fallen back to earth, losing 5 of 6, putting them in a fight to even make the playoffs. Considering 3 of those 5 wins were by a touchdown or less and the best team they beat was probably the Giants (a 24-20 win), that’s not too much of a surprise, but the fact remains that they’ve lost to New Orleans, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, Indianapolis, and Minnesota, all teams they were favored against. Their only win in their last 5 games was by 3 in Tennessee, when the Titans were playing without starting quarterback Marcus Mariota. The Falcons have lost 7 straight games against the spread, making them just the 30th team since 1989 to do that.

That seems to have caused the odds makers to knock them down, to the point where they might be underrated now. Teams are 15-8 ATS since 1989 as underdogs off of 7+ straight against the spread losses. I know it’s a sample size, but, again this doesn’t happen very often and it makes sense that teams in this spot would cover at a higher rate. The Falcons rank 8th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Buccaneers rank 23rd (and are missing defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, arguably their best player) and yet the Buccaneers just 2 point favorites at home, after being favored by 1.5 at home last week. I love to fade significant week-to-week line movements because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, so the Falcons look like a good pick in this one.

The Falcons are also in a great spot. They lost to the Buccaneers earlier this year as home favorites in Baltimore, but teams are 54-30 ATS as divisional road underdogs in a regular season rematch against a divisional opponent they previously lost to as home favorites. Besides, the Buccaneers have had next to no homefield advantage in recent years so the location of this game doesn’t matter as much as a normal divisional matchup would. The Buccaneers are just 17-35 ATS at home since 2009. If we were getting a field goal with the Falcons, they’d be my Pick of the Week, and I’d still put money on them as 2 point underdogs. I’d take Atlanta up to field goal favorites.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +2

Confidence: High

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Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (7-3) at Atlanta Falcons (6-4)

The Falcons started the season a surprising 5-0, but have since fallen back to earth, losing 4 of 5, putting them in a fight to even make the playoffs. Considering 3 of those 5 wins were by a touchdown or less and the best team they beat was probably the Giants (a 24-20 win), that’s not too much of a surprise, but the fact remains that they’ve lost to New Orleans, Tampa Bay, San Francisco, and Indianapolis, all teams they were favored against. Their only win in their last 5 games was by 3 in Tennessee, when the Titans were playing without starting quarterback Marcus Mariota.

The Falcons are also missing talented running back Devonta Freeman in this one, which was caused the line to shift from 3 on the early line last week to 1 now. Even though about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal or less, the line movement makes sense, given how important Freeman is to this offense. The Falcons rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Vikings rank 11th, but, again, the Falcons have had an incredibly easy schedule, with their toughest opponents being the likes of the Colts, Giants, Eagles, and Saints. They haven’t played a single team with a winning record. The Vikings are the best team they’ve faced thus far and they have to do so without a key player. Given that, the Vikings should win, but the 1 point we’re getting with them isn’t enough for me to have any confidence in them on the road.

Update: Harrison Smith is a surprise inactive for the Vikings, a big deal considering he’s one of the best safeties in the NFL. The spread has jumped to 2, which isn’t enough to compensate, so I’m switching sides on this one. Not that it matters because I wouldn’t touch either side without getting a field goal.

Atlanta Falcons 23 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -2

Confidence: Low

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Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (4-5) at Atlanta Falcons (6-3)

The Falcons are 6-3, but not as good as their record. Their 3 losses came against New Orleans, Tampa Bay, and San Francisco. Just 2 of their 6 wins have come by more than a touchdown and the toughest team they’ve beaten is probably Philadelphia, who they only beat because they were at home and Philadelphia missed a makeable field goal at the end of the game. The Falcons have exceeded pre-season expectations, but aren’t too much more talented than their 4-win team from 2013 or their 6-win team from 2014. They’ve simply lucked out getting close wins (4-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less) and playing easy opponents.

They would seem to have lucked out again, given that they’re facing the Colts without Andrew Luck, who is missing the first of multiple games with a lacerated kidney. Luck is certainly a better player than backup Matt Hasselbeck and has more upside, but Luck was not playing well when on the field this season, completing 55.3% of his passes for an average of 6.42 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Hasselbeck is a solid, experienced backup and played well in two spot starts in place of Luck earlier this year. The Colts moved the chains at a 73.85% rate in those 2 games, as opposed to 69.66% in their other 7 games with Luck.

Given that, the Falcons should not be favored by 5 points here over the Colts. They rank 12th on the season in rate of moving the chains differential, as their defense has been solid this season (11th), allowing them to be competitive, despite inconsistencies and struggles at the quarterback position. They’ve had a way tougher schedule too, facing Carolina, Denver, New England, and the Jets, who would all be the toughest opponent Atlanta has seen all season. They haven’t played any of those teams without Luck, but they should still be able to keep it close in Atlanta. Close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, including 3 of the Falcons’ wins, so as long as the line is 4.5 or more, the Colts should be the right side.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Indianapolis Colts 23

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +5

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (6-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-6)

The Falcons have been exposed a little bit in recent weeks. They needed overtime to beat the Redskins in Atlanta, lost in New Orleans, only won by a field goal in Tennessee, who was starting a backup quarterback, and then lost at home in overtime to the Buccaneers last week. On the season, they have just 2 wins by more than 4 points and they haven’t played a single team with a winning record. Despite that, they’re favored by 7.5 points here on the road in San Francisco.

This line was 4 a week ago and typically I love fading significant line movements like this because they tend to be overreactions to single weeks. However, despite the fact that the Falcons are not as good as their record, I actually think this line is too low, if anything. The 49ers are in complete disarray right now. Following a brutal off-season in which they lost about half of their starters, they rank dead last in rate of moving the chains differential by a wide margin. Starting wide receiver Anquan Boldin is out for this one, as is starting running back Carlos Hyde. The 49ers are also without top backup running backs Reggie Bush and Mike Davis with injury, so they’ll be going with a committee of Kendall Gaskins, their 4th string running back, and free agent acquisitions Shaun Draughn and Pierre Thomas, who have been with the team for less than a week.

On top of that, they’ve benched starting quarterback Colin Kaepernick for Blaine Gabbert. Kaepernick certainly wasn’t playing well at all, but Gabbert has been one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league whenever he’s been counted on to play in his 5 year NFL career, completing 53.2% of his passes for an average of 5.61 YPA, 23 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions. As bad as Kaepernick has been, Gabbert is a clear downgrade and, combining that with the injuries, this line movement is perfectly legitimate. The Falcons, meanwhile, rank 6th in rate of moving the chains differential. That’s inflated by their week schedule, but I’d still take them here in San Francisco as up to 10 point favorites.

They’re also in a good spot going into a bye. Good teams tend to take care of business going into a bye and win big as big favorites. Home favorites of 6+ going into the bye are 59-20 ATS since 2002. The Cardinals, unfortunately, are not at home for this one, but 3+ point road favorites are still 40-26 ATS going into a bye, for the same reason. It’s not as powerful of a trend as the other one, but the logic behind both is the same. Matt Ryan is also 25-13 ATS off of a loss in his career. I can’t bring myself to put money on the Falcons as long as the line is over a touchdown, especially with the public is all over the Falcons, but they should win this one pretty easily.

Atlanta Falcons 24 San Francisco 49ers 13

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -7.5

Confidence: Low

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-4) at Atlanta Falcons (6-1)

The Falcons aren’t quite as good as their 6-1 record, as evidenced by their recent road loss in New Orleans and mere 3 point victory in Tennessee against a Titans team that was playing without Marcus Mariota. However, they still rank 7th in rate of moving the chains differential, as opposed to 31st for the Buccaneers. Given that, this line seems too low at -7 and I think we’re getting a good amount of line value with the Falcons, now back at home.

On top of that, the Falcons are beneficiaries of a significant week-to-week line movement. This line was 9 a week ago, but now it’s down to a touchdown, likely a result of the Buccaneers’ near win in Washington and the Falcons’ near loss in Tennessee. I love fading significant line movements like that because they tend to be overreactions to one week of play and I think that’s true here. The Buccaneers are one of the worst teams in the league and should not be underdogs of any less than 10 in this one.

The Falcons are also in a better spot, with an easy road game in San Francisco on deck, a game in which the Falcons are expected to be favored by 4 points. Teams are 106-80 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, 68-48 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites, and 42-28 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites. If the Falcons were to end up being 6+ point road favorites in San Francisco (as they were in Tennessee, against a Titans team that’s better than the 49ers), that would open up another trend as favorites of 6+ are 77-38 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6+ again. Even if that line doesn’t end up moving past 6, this logic still holds. Good teams tend to take care of business and win big with no upcoming distractions on the horizon. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, host the Giants, a game in which they’re expected to be underdogs of a couple points at home.

It does help the Buccaneers that they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 120-86 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 98-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 204-212 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 296-411 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.94 points per game.

However, as long as this line doesn’t go above a touchdown, I’m still confident putting money on the Falcons. They’re the vastly better team. They have no upcoming distractions. They also have the better injury situation. They are missing safety William Moore and wide receiver Leonard Hankerson, but the Buccaneers will be without safety Major Wright, wide receiver Vincent Jackson, tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and defensive tackle Clinton McDonald. The reason this isn’t a higher confidence pick is because of all the public action on Atlanta and the fact that the Buccaneers are in their 2nd of two road games, but I’m still pretty confident in Atlanta. Tampa Bay isn’t very good and could get down big early.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -7

Confidence: Medium

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Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (5-1) at Tennessee Titans (1-4)

On paper, this line is too high at 6.5. The Falcons are good, a 5-1 team that ranks 8th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’re coming off of a loss in New Orleans last week, but now they’re in their 2nd straight road game, which helps, and Matt Ryan is 25-12 ATS off of a loss in his career. The Titans, however, despite their record, actually rank 11th in that stat. They got blown out by the Dolphins at home last week, but they also blew out the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay week 1, lost by a combined 3 points to Buffalo and Indianapolis, and were a few plays away from a much different game in Cleveland.

However, they also hadn’t had many injuries until now. Not only is Perrish Cox, a talented starting cornerback, out for this one, quarterback Marcus Mariota is also out, obviously a huge loss. Zach Mettenberger is starting in his absence. Mettenberg flashed as a 6th round rookie last year, but ultimately showed why he fell so far in the draft, which is the reason Mariota was drafted 2nd overall. He’s got some nice tools, but he’s a backup caliber quarterback and a significant downgrade from Mariota.

The Falcons, meanwhile, have no notable injuries. They also don’t have an upcoming distraction, hosting the Buccaneers next week, in game in which they are expected to be 8 point favorites.  Big favorites tend to cover before being big favorites again, as 6+ point favorites are 109-67 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point favorites again. This makes sense, as good teams tend to take care of their business pretty easily when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. I’m hesitant to put money on the Falcons as favorites of quite this many, especially with the public all over them, but they should be the right side.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -6.5

Confidence: Low

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New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (5-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-4)

The Falcons won at home last week against the Redskins in overtime on a pick six, but the fact that the Falcons had to go to overtime really hurts them this week, as they go on the road on a short week to play the Saints in New Orleans on Thursday Night Football. Unsurprisingly, teams are 4-19 ATS since 1989 on Thursday Night Football after an overtime game, including 2-14 ATS on the road, 1-13 ATS on the road after a home game, and 0-6 ATS as road favorites. All of those are small sample sizes, but it makes sense. That sequence is just so draining.

One of the most obvious negative effects of the situation is the fact that Julio Jones could be on a snap count. Jones has been dealing with a hamstring problem all year and, while he’s still played very well overall on the season, he hasn’t been quite as good over the past 2 weeks, catching 9 passes for 105 yards and 0 touchdowns, as opposed to a ridiculous 34 catches for 440 yards and 4 touchdowns in the first 3 games of the season. Playing well 3 days after an overtime game is going to be tough, even for him, and the Falcons’ weapons in the passing game after him (Roddy White, Leonard Hankerson, Jacob Tamme) are underwhelming. Despite that, the public is all over the Falcons as mere 3.5 point favorites here. This line might seem low, but the Falcons aren’t quite as good as their 5-0 record. They haven’t really played anyone good yet and, while the Saints aren’t exactly good, the Falcons have played close games with the Eagles, Giants, and Redskins and could easily have trouble with New Orleans this week on a short week, off of an overtime game.

All that being said, I wouldn’t put money on the Saints for a few reasons. For one, they’re missing significant guys with injury as well, particularly on offense, where left tackle Terron Armstead, left guard Tom DeLito, and wide receiver Marques Colston are all out. Defensively, cornerback Damian Swann is out, while defensive end Bobby Richardson is highly questionable after not practicing all week.  The Falcons have a couple guys out too, outside linebacker Justin Durant and center Mike Person, but the guys the Saints are missing are far more important, particularly Armstead. Armstead has been one of the best left tackles in the league this year when healthy and the Saints couldn’t pass protect at all last week against Philadelphia without him. On top of that, the Saints do have a harder game than the Falcons do on deck, as they have to go to Indianapolis, while Atlanta goes to Tennessee. That could provide a little bit more of a distraction and make it a little harder to focus this week, though those games are 10 days off and this is such a big rivalry that it could easily not matter.

At this point last year, I definitely would have put money on the Saints. There was a point last year where they had won 20 straight home games (18-1-1 ATS) and went 20-2 ATS off of a loss (with Drew Brees and Sean Payton) since 2008, including 12-1 ATS at home off of a loss. However, since then, they’re just 1-6 ATS at home, 5-6 ATS off of a loss, and 3-4 ATS at home off of a loss, so those trends have certainly lost some luster. I still think the Saints are the right side, but I wouldn’t bet on it.

Atlanta Falcons 24 New Orleans Saints 23

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3.5

Confidence: Low

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