Falcons

Atlanta Falcons sign DT Paul Soliai

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Falcons, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

What’s with the Falcons committing all this money to pure run stoppers? I understand they need to improve their run defense, but they also need to add pass rushers. Not only are Tyson Jackson and Paul Soliai not pass rushers, but they’re actually liabilities on passing plays. They played a combined 493 pass snaps last season and for good reason. Now the Falcons have given them each 5-year deals that have a combined total value of 58 million dollars with 25 million guaranteed. This one might be even worse than the Tyson Jackson deal. Part of that is because the max value is 8 million dollars more, though they’re both highly unlikely to ever see all that money. Part of it is because Soliai is going into his age 31 season.

Soliai, like Jackson, had a solid season this year, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 20th ranked defensive tackle, including 16th in run grade, as a part-time player on 526 snaps. However, he graded out as roughly a league average player in a part-time role in both 2011 and 2012 and, even in 2010, when he had another solid year, it was as a part-time player, grading out as ProFootballFocus’ 12th ranked defensive tackle, including their 8th ranked in run grade. Either the Falcons think that both the Chiefs and Dolphins were originally using Jackson and Soliai incorrectly as part-time players and that they can get more out of them, or the Falcons decided $5-6.5 million yearly for part-time/base package players was a solid value. I don’t think either of those things are accurate.

Grade: C-

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Atlanta Falcons sign DE Tyson Jackson

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Falcons, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

I wrote in my Chiefs’ off-season preview that Tyson Jackson would be lucky if he got the 3 year 12.6 million dollar deal that the Chiefs gave teammate Mike DeVito last off-season. DeVito is a very similar player, a pure base 3-4 defensive end that excels against the run, but doesn’t offer much as a pass rusher, but the difference is DeVito has more of a proven track record. DeVito was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 3-4 defensive end this season as a part-time player, including 4th against the run, while Jackson was 14th and 10th respectively in a similar role. DeVito was also in the top-10 among 3-4 defensive ends in a similar role with the Jets in 2010-2012, including top-5 positional run grade finishes in 2010 and 2011. Jackson, meanwhile, graded out positively just once from 2009-2012, after being drafted 3rd overall in 2009.

Given that, it’s pretty absurd that Jackson not only matched what DeVito got, but greatly exceeded it, signing a 5 year, 25 million dollar deal with almost as much guaranteed money ($11 million) as DeVito received in total money. That’s far too much to pay for a one-dimensional player who can’t get to the quarterback, especially one who doesn’t have a proven track record. The Chiefs seemed to wake Jackson up by slashing his salary for the 2013 season, but who is to say he doesn’t coast now that he has all this guaranteed money in his pocket and revert to the bust of a former 3rd overall pick he was from 2009-2012? Thomas Dimitroff is a great GM, but this move reeks of Scott Pioli, who was recently hired as the Falcons’ assistant general manager and who reached for Jackson with the 3rd overall pick in 2009.

Grade: C-

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Atlanta Falcons 2014 Off-Season Report

stevenlourie 2014 Off-Season Reports, Falcons, Uncategorized

2013 Recap

The Falcons were definitely going to regress this season. The average 13-win team wins 9.5 games the following season. The Falcons played just 2 eventual playoff teams in 2012 and went 7-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They had an unsustainable +13 turnover margin, which was powered by an unsustainable 64.3% fumble recovery rate. They also had significant off-season losses. They lost their best two defensive linemen, John Abraham and Vance Walker, and only replaced them with an aging Osi Umenyiora. They lost two offensive line starters and had just two players playing in their 2012 spot on the line. The switch from Michael Turner to Steven Jackson appeared to be an upgrade, but with Jackson heading into his 30s, it was tough to expect much.

However, the Falcons regressed in a way that no one saw coming. They went from 13 wins to 4 wins as injuries ravaged the team. Sean Weatherspoon, Sam Baker, Kroy Biermann, and Julio Jones all missed significant time with injury, while Roddy White was limited by lower body injuries all season. Steven Jackson also missed significant time with injury and struggled when he did play, showing his age. White and Jackson were a part of a group of 30+ veterans who disappointed on this team, including Asante Samuel, Stephen Nicholas, and Osi Umenyiora, all of whom were benched at one point or another.

Baker and Weatherspoon also struggled when they were in the lineup, hurting their linebacking corps and offensive line significantly. The former unit was forced to rely significantly on two undrafted rookies, Joplo Bartu and Paul Worillow, while the latter saw two 2nd year players, Lamar Holmes and Peter Konz, play among the worst in the league at their respective positions. Add in a disappointing year from safety Thomas DeCoud and you had a team that had little around the quarterback position.

It’s very hard for a team to win just 4 games with a strong quarterback and Matt Ryan is not to blame, as he completed 67.4% of his passes for 6.94 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, despite a lack of talent around him. However, the Falcons had ones of the worst defenses in the NFL, struggling in all facets and the only thing that worked on the offensive side was the passing game, as they were unable to pass protect or establish anything on the ground.

The good news is that things should turn around in 2014. Teams that see significant drops in win totals often rebound and wind up, on average, right in the middle of their strong season and their bad season. That would put the Falcons at 8 or 9 wins, which isn’t hard to imagine given their recent history of success. They should have significantly fewer injuries and they have plenty of cap space to build their roster. They also have the 6th overall pick in the draft to add a much needed cheap blue chip. Also, things that are usually kind to the Falcons were not in 2014. They went 3-7 in games decided by a touchdown or less and their turnover margin was -7 as they forced just 21 takeaways. Those things should turn around in 2014 and allow this team to compete for a playoff spot.

Positional Needs

Defensive End

Maybe edge rusher is a better term here because Mike Nolan will want someone who is versatile enough to play in all schemes. The Falcons had just 32 sacks this season, which ranked tied for 3rd worst in the NFL, and they are Pro Football Focus’ 32nd ranked team in terms of pass rush. Osi Umenyiora was their big free agent pass rusher signing, but he was benched towards the end of the season and he’s unlikely to be brought back next season, owed 3.5 million dollars in his age 33 contract year. They need at least one, if not two new starters at defensive end/edge rusher. Jadeveon Clowney or Anthony Barr could be very intriguing at #6.

Defensive Tackle

The Falcons top-3 defensive tackles are all free agents this off-season and the odds are against them bringing all 3 of Jonathan Babineaux, Corey Peters, and Peria Jerry back. Even if they do, Babineaux is heading into his age 33 season, while Jerry, a 2009 1st round pick, has been a complete bust and is barely a rotational caliber player at this point in his career. Corey Peters, meanwhile, played well this season, but was terrible in 2012 so he’s tough to trust.

Offensive Tackle

The Falcons gave Sam Baker a 6 year, 41.1 million dollar deal last off-season after the 2008 1st rounder had a strong contract year. The first year of that deal went as bad as it possibly could have. Baker’s tendency to get injured returned and he played just 190 snaps. He was horrific on those 190 snaps, allowing a sack, 7 hits, and 12 hurries. No offensive tackle played fewer snaps than him and graded out worse than him on Pro Football Focus in either overall grade or pass blocking grade. Despite such limited snaps, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th worst ranked offensive tackle overall.

He’ll be back next season because he still has guaranteed money left on his deal and cutting him would cost 9.2 million on the cap. However, they need help opposite him. Lamar Holmes, a 2012 3rd round pick, has been awful this far in his career. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked offensive tackle in 2013, allowing 10 sacks, 13 hits, and 53 hurries, while committing 12 penalties. He could still turn it around, but given that he was just a 3rd round pick, it’s looking unlikely. They can’t let him come into 2014 as the uncontested starting right tackle.

Tight End

Tony Gonzalez is retiring, at least for now. The Falcons need a new tight end to replace him. Levine Toilolo, a 2013 4th round pick, was their 2nd string tight end last season, but he only played 198 snaps because the Falcons almost never use two-tight end sets, catching 11 passes for 55 yards and 2 touchdowns. He’s a decent blocker and goal line weapon, but I don’t know if he’s a good enough receiver to be a #1 tight end. They should bring someone else into the mix.

Guard

Left guard Justin Blalock was their only good offensive lineman in 2013. They need help at right guard opposite him. Garrett Reynolds has been very inconsistent in his career and was benched last season for Joe Hawley, who took over at center, moving Peter Konz to right guard. Konz was horrible at right guard, just as he was at center. They need to bring in competition for Reynolds, as Hawley, a decent reserve, is a free agent this off-season.

Center

Peter Konz has been a complete bust in 2 years since being a 2nd round pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. He was Pro Football Focus’ 6th worst ranked guard in 2012. In 2013, he started the season at center, his collegiate position, but struggled and moved back to right guard. Despite splitting time at the two positions, he was still both Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked center and their 68th ranked guard out of 81 eligible. They need to bring in some competition for him.

Running Back

The Falcons replaced Michael Turner with Steven Jackson, but Jackson didn’t prove to be much of an upgrade. Jackson fell off a cliff, rushing for a career low 543 yards and 3.5 yards per carry. He only played 12 games and had just 157 carries. That shouldn’t have been a surprise as he had 2396 carries going into his age 30 season in 2013. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. The Falcons can get out of his contract fairly easily and replace him, but even if they don’t, they need a running back for the future as Jackson is heading into his age 31 season.

Cornerback

The Falcons used 1st and 2nd round picks on cornerbacks in 2013 NFL Draft, taking Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford, but they might still need help at the position this off-season. Asante Samuel is expected to be a cap casualty, while Robert McClain is a free agent. If they don’t retain him, they’ll need to get someone to replace him.

Middle Linebacker

Paul Worrilow took over as the starting middle linebacker as an undrafted rookie this season. He wasn’t terrible, but he did grade out as Pro Football Focus’ 41st ranked middle linebacker out of 55 eligible. The Falcons do seem to like him so he’ll probably be back as the starter next season, but it might not be a bad idea to get a cheap veteran backup just in case he continues to struggle.

Safety

Thomas DeCoud had an awful 2013 season in the 2nd year of his 5-year deal, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked safety. The Falcons can save a good amount on the cap and 11.2 million in cash over the next 3 seasons by cutting him. If they cut him, they’ll need to find some sort of replacement. Perhaps 2013 undrafted rookie Zeke Motta can be that guy and they might just keep DeCoud as a veteran presence in hopes that he turns it around with so many needs. That’s why it’s at the bottom on this list.

Key Free Agents

DT Jonathan Babineaux

Babineaux has played in 138 games for the Falcons, missing a combined 4 over the past 6 seasons, since being taken in the 2nd round in 2005 out of Iowa. Since Pro Football Focus’ first season in 2008, Babineaux has graded out above average in all 6 seasons, maxing out as Pro Football Focus’ #1 ranked defensive tackle in 2009 and grading out 13th as recently as 2011. Unfortunately, he’s going into his age 33 season this off-season so he’ll probably be looking at short-term deals, but he should still be able to get 3-5 million dollars per year.

DT Corey Peters

A 3rd round pick in 2010, Corey Peters has been a pretty inconsistent player thus far in his career, playing significant amounts of snaps in all 4 seasons and alternating between below average and above average seasons on Pro Football Focus. For example, in 2012, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked defensive tackle, but in 2013, he graded out 30th and significantly above average. He’ll get a decent amount of money on a 3 or 4 year deal going into the prime of his career. Of the Falcons’ 3 free agents at defensive tackle, Peters should be their #1 priority because of his combination of youth and talent.

CB Robert McClain

Robert McClain broke out as the nickel back in 2012 for the Falcons, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 12th ranked cornerback. He wasn’t nearly as good in 2013, grading out right around average, playing about half the snaps, but he still should be retained because he’s one of the few talented young players the Falcons have. He should get a bigger role in 2014.

DT Peria Jerry

Peria Jerry has been a complete bust as a 2009 1st round pick. 2010 was the only season he graded out above average and he did that on 213 snaps. 2013 was his worst season as he played a career high 678 snaps and graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 6th worst ranked defensive tackle. He’s looking at rotational work on a one year deal at best this off-season.

Cap Casualty Candidates

CB Asante Samuel

Asante Samuel is going into his age 33 season and he’s as good as gone after getting moved down to 4th string behind rookies Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford late last season. Samuel is owed 4.5 million in salary and bonuses in 2014 in his contract year and the Falcons can save 4.5 million on the cap by letting him go.

DE Osi Umenyiora

Osi Umenyiora is another veteran who is as good as gone. Umenyiora was their big pass rush signing last off-season and though he led the team with 7 sacks, he still wasn’t as good as they needed him to be and they benched him down the stretch to evaluate younger players. The Falcons can save both 3.5 million in cash and cap space by letting him go, as he heads into his age 33 season.

RB Jason Snelling

Jason Snelling was arrested this season and the Falcons have generally displayed a no tolerance policy in the past in terms of players with off the field run ins. Given that, it’s pretty safe to assume that Snelling will be cut, saving 1.375 million in cash and cap space. He’s also going into his age 31 season in 2014 and had just 44 carries in an underwhelming backfield in 2013, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.

OLB Stephen Nicholas

Stephen Nicholas has been jumped on the depth chart by two undrafted rookies Paul Worrilow and Joplo Bartu and played just 132 snaps in 2013, the 3rd year of a 5 year deal. The Falcons can save a combined 7.5 million in cash in 2014 and 2015 and 2 million in cap space by cutting him this off-season, as he goes into his age 31 season.

OLB Kroy Biermann

Kroy Biermann missed most of last season with injury and has yet to establish himself as an impact edge rusher. The Falcons can save 3.05 million on the cap next season and in cash by cutting him, but they may keep him around because of how thin they are at edge rusher.

RB Steven Jackson

The Falcons replaced Michael Turner with Steven Jackson, but Jackson didn’t prove to be much of an upgrade. Jackson fell off a cliff, rushing for a career low 543 yards and 3.5 yards per carry. He only played 12 games and had just 157 carries. That shouldn’t have been a surprise as he had 2396 carries going into his age 30 season in 2013. Of the top-25 all-time leading rushers who have played in the last decade, the average one has his last 1000 yard season in his age 30 season at 2602 carrier carries. The Falcons can get out of his contract fairly easily, saving about 1.8 million on next year’s cap in the process, if they choose.

S Thomas DeCoud

Thomas DeCoud had an awful 2013 season in the 2nd year of his 5-year deal, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked safety. The Falcons can save a 3 million on the cap and 11.2 million in cash over the next 3 seasons by cutting him. They also might just keep DeCoud as a veteran presence in hopes that he turns it around with so many needs.

TE Tony Gonzalez

This is just formality as Gonzalez is technically under contract for 2014 at the salary of 7 million. He’s expected to retire, however, so the Falcons won’t technically have to cut him to realize savings of 7 million in cash and cap space. Gonzalez will now sit and wait for the Hall of Fame to call, though he did leave the window open for him to return mid-season to a contender in 2014.

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Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 17 NFL Picks, Falcons, Panthers, Uncategorized

Carolina Panthers (11-4) at Atlanta Falcons (4-11)

This is an important game to the Panthers for seeding purposes. If they win and Seattle were to lose, they would become the #1 seed and have home field advantage all the way to the Super Bowl. However, if they were to lose and New Orleans were to win, they’d fall all the way from the 2nd seed to the 5th seed, not only losing a first round bye in the process, but also losing guaranteed home field advantage through to the NFC Championship game. Atlanta, meanwhile, is obviously eliminated, but they’ll still play hard to try to ruin the plans of a divisional rival. They’ve been playing decent football of late and they clearly have not quit as players are playing for future playing time and contracts.

The Panthers usually blow out bad teams. The Falcons are playing better of late, but they’re still a bad team, exemplified by the fact that they are rightfully 6.5 point underdogs here at home. The Panthers haven’t always held their own in close games against top level teams like this year, but they’ve always destroyed bad teams, going 6-1 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2011, the start of the Cam Newton/Ron Rivera era. That one ATS loss was a 10 point win as 11 point favorites against the Jets a few weeks ago so it’s not like it wasn’t close to being a cover. The Jets backdoored them with a garbage time touchdown late down 30-13. They’ve still won all 7 of those games by an average of 18.72 points per game.

Given that, the Panthers should be the right side, but it’s not a big play. That alone isn’t enough to go on for a significant play and it’s not like we’re getting line significant value as I have this line calculated at exactly a touchdown, which is where it basically is at right now. Carolina could also be a little hungover after last week’s huge comeback win over New Orleans, though Atlanta too could be flat off of a crushing road loss on Monday Night Football to the 49ers in what was pretty much their Super Bowl. Of course, they could also see this one as a big game because of the Panthers’ record and because they are a divisional rival. At the end of the day, the Panthers should be the right side as long as the line stays under a touchdown, but I’m not that confident.

Carolina Panthers 23 Atlanta Falcons 13

Pick against spread: Carolina -6.5

Confidence: Low

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Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers: 2013 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 16 NFL Picks, 49ers, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (4-10) at San Francisco 49ers (10-4)

Colin Kaepernick has had his fair share of issues this season, but against teams that currently have a .500 or worse record this season, Colin Kaepernick has completed 97 of 156 (62.2%) for 1356 yards (8.69 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and no interceptions, while rushing for 230 yards and 3 touchdowns on 39 carries in 7 games. They’ve won all 7 of those games by an average of 21.57 points per game and covered each time. This is nothing new, as the 49ers are 23-11 ATS as favorites of 3 or more since Jim Harbaugh took over before the 2011 season.

That’s certainly the case here against a 4-10 Atlanta team, against whom they are favored by 12. Atlanta isn’t in a good spot here as they have to face Carolina next week in Atlanta. They won’t sleepwalk through this nationally televised 2012 NFC Championship rematch, but with such a big game coming up next week as well, they could easily not be as focused as they need to be to keep this one close. Teams are 37-67 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3 or more.

Also working against the Falcons is the fact that this is a night game on the West Coast against a West Coast opponent. While this game will run from 8:30 to about 11:30 or 12:00 on the Falcons’ internal clocks, it’ll run from 5:30 to 8:30 or 9:00 on the 49ers’ internal clock. While the Falcons’ will be internally winding down energy wise in the 2nd half, the 49ers will still be going. Sounds crazy? Well maybe a little, but West Coast teams are 48-20 ATS at night at home against East Coast teams since 1989 so there definitely seems to be something to this.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because this line is a little big. The 49ers are moving the chains at a 69.90% rate, as opposed to 66.25% for their opponents, a differential of 3.65% that is 8th in the NFL. The Falcons, meanwhile, move the chains at a 73.38% rate, as opposed to 75.17% for their opponents, a differential of -1.79% that ranks 20th in the NFL. That suggests this line should be around 8.5, instead of 12, which is a big difference. Still, the 49ers’ average margin of victory against teams with losing records (21.57), the Falcons having to face the Panthers next week, and the time zone aspect are enough for me to be pretty confident in the 49ers.

San Francisco 49ers 34 Atlanta Falcons 16

Pick against spread: San Francisco -12

Confidence: Medium

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Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 15 NFL Picks, Commanders, Falcons, Uncategorized

Washington Redskins (3-10) at Atlanta Falcons (3-10)

What’s reportedly happening in Washington between Head Coach Mike Shanahan and Owner Dan Snyder is one of the most dysfunctional things that has happened between a head coach and Owner in a long while. Shanahan has benched Robert Griffin and will be shutting him down for the season, leaving the team with Kirk Cousins as the starter and Rex Grossman as the backup going forward. That much is known. What’s also being reported is that the reason Shanahan is doing this is out of spite to owner Dan Snyder in an attempt to get fired.

Snyder wants Shanahan to quit so he wouldn’t have to pay him his $7 million dollar salary for 2014, but Shanahan wants that money (possibly knowing this is the end of his career as an NFL head coach) so he is standing his ground and trying to get himself fired. This is despite the fact that he reportedly thought about quitting last season because his relationship with Snyder had broken down and only didn’t because Griffin got hurt. Ironically, the guys at ESPN floated around the idea of benching Robert Griffin for Kirk Cousins as a legitimate idea a few weeks ago and now Shanahan is doing exactly that out of sabotage. Great job guys.

If it’s true, it’s obviously a very dysfunctional situation, but even if it’s not true, Kirk Cousins is going to start this one here. Cousins is a downgrade over Griffin, who wasn’t having that bad of a season. He wasn’t playing at the level he was at last year because of an ACL injury, an off-season for the league to adjust, and an unsustainable interception rate and rate of fumbles recovered. However, he was still completing 60.1% of his passes for an average of 7.02 yards per attempt, 16 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions, with 489 rushing yards on 86 carries. The Redskins offense, moving the chains at a solid 71.73% rate, has been the strength of the team. Their defense is just allowing opponents to move the chains at a 76.60% rate.

Cousins could have a good game though. He’s definitely flashed in limited action in relief of Griffin thus far in his two year career, but overall his numbers have left something to be desired, as he’s completing 61.6% of his passes for 7.89 yards per attempt, 4 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions. He hasn’t done enough to prove the league wrong for letting him fall to the 4th round yet. However, Atlanta’s defense is almost as bad as Washington’s, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 75.87% rate, so Cousins could have some success. He’ll also be able to lean on Alfred Morris against the Falcons’ putrid run defense.

Given that, this line seems too high. This line has actually shifted a ridiculous 4.5 points from this week to last week, as the early line had Atlanta favored by 2.5, but now they are favored by 7 points and the public is still all over them. That’s significant as it passed the key numbers of 3, 4, and 6 all the way to the key number of 7. On average, about 25% of games are decided by 3-7 points, so that line movement is much more significant than the public seems to realize. A line will only shift that much if a top level quarterback gets injured. I don’t think that line movement is valid.

Yes, I guess Griffin is “injured,” but I don’t think the downgrade from him to Cousins is significant enough for the line to shift that much. The dysfunction surrounding the franchise is also a factor, but, at the end of the day, the individual players care more about proving themselves on the field for the new coaching staff and maybe for new teams in 2014 than they do about bickering between the owner and the head coach.

I think the main factor for the line movement was Washington’s blowout loss at home to Kansas City last week, as they lost 45-10. However, it wasn’t as bad as that would suggest as the Chiefs scored 2 touchdowns on returns. That’s inconsistent and the Redskins were actually much more competitive in terms of first downs (20 to 13 Kansas City) and yards (346 to 257 Washington), than the final score would suggest.

Actually, the fact that they got blown out last week makes it more likely that they’ll cover the spread this week. Teams are 44-23 ATS off of a loss by 35 or more since 2002. It might seem counterintuitive, but teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation and I think all three are definitely going to be true this week.

Starting with undervalued, I already mentioned the huge line movement, but the fact that the Redskins are underdogs of 6 or more here is very relevant. One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Falcons, however, sit at 3-10 and cannot possibly finish better than 6-10. In spite of that, they are still favored by a touchdown. For what it’s worth, the Falcons are the first 3-10 teams favored by more than 6 points as far back as my data goes (1989). On top of that, the Falcons have just three home victories of more than a touchdown over the past two seasons combined and that includes last season when they went 13-3. Of those three wins, only two came by more than a touchdown and they haven’t won all season by more than 8 points.

Now going onto overlooked, it definitely makes sense that the Falcons would overlook a dysfunctional team like the Redskins this week, especially with a trip to San Francisco and a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship game on the schedule next week. The Falcons will almost definitely be underdogs of 10 or more in San Francisco next week and teams tend to be distracted and struggle to cover the spread before being double digit underdogs.

Teams are 36-71 ATS before being double digit underdogs since 2010. Going off of that, teams are 9-26 ATS since 1989 as favorites of 7 or more before being double digit underdogs. Atlanta has proven they’ll get up for big games even in the midst of their disappointing season, almost knocking off New Orleans a few weeks ago. However, they also don’t seem to put up a ton of effort for lesser opponents, getting blown out by Tampa Bay, losing in Green Bay to Matt Flynn, and barely beating the Bills on essentially a neutral field, to go with that New Orleans game in their last 4 game stretch. With the biggest game remaining on their schedule coming up next week, I’d be shocked if they brought their “A game” for Washington this week.

Finally, going onto embarrassed, I think this one is pretty self-explanatory and I think the Redskins’ level of embarrassment right now as professional football players will allow them to play as well as they can, despite what’s going on between Shanahan and Snyder. Their “A game” isn’t very good anymore, but it’s still good enough for them to keep it close with a mediocre at best Atlanta team that almost definitely won’t have their A game. This would be my Pick of the Week if Griffin were playing or if I trusted Cousins more, but there’s too much stuff going on in Washington’s favor this week for me to not make them a high confidence pick at the very least.

Atlanta Falcons 26 Washington Redskins 24

Pick against spread: Washington +7

Confidence: High

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Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 14 NFL Picks, Falcons, Packers, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (3-9) at Green Bay Packers (5-6-1)

There’s a pretty powerful trend that says when two teams who are about to undergo a scheduling dynamic change (from dog to favorite or favorite to dog) play each other, the dog covers more often than not. The favorite is distracted by their upcoming game as underdogs, while the underdog has no distractions coming up considering they will be favorites next. This game does fit that trend. The Packers are home favorites here and will probably be road underdogs in Dallas next week, while the Falcons will be home favorites for the Redskins. Teams are 54-85 ATS as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites.

However, there’s also a chance that Aaron Rodgers returns next week, in which case the Packers would probably be favored in Dallas next week, which would make that trend irrelevant. Given that, I actually like the Packers this week. They aren’t as bad as they looked last week, when they were playing on a short week after essentially playing 5 quarters of football in a tie the week before. I’m not saying they’re a good team without Rodgers by any means. After all, they played Minnesota to a tie in Green Bay. However, they’re better than they looked last week. They have the most talented quarterback under center since Rodgers went down in Matt Flynn and he has now had more time with the play book. The Packers are well rested after that Thursday game and they should be the right side here. I’m not confident though.

Green Bay Packers 27 Atlanta Falcons 23

Pick against spread: Green Bay -3.5

Confidence: None

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Atlanta Falcons: 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Falcons, Uncategorized

Last week: 30 (+0)

Record: 2-9

Coming into this week, 24 of the NFL’s 32 teams were either in a playoff spot or within 1 game of a playoff spot. Of the 8 who weren’t, 4 of them made the playoffs last year, including this Falcon team. The Falcons, Texans, Vikings, and Redskins combined to go 45-19 last season, but now sit at a combined 9-32-1. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, Lions, Cardinals, and Eagles combined to go 15-49 last year, but now sit at a combined 29-16. Add in the previously 7-9 Saints and Panthers who will probably make the playoffs and you have the definition of a parity league.

Week 12 Studs

None

Week 12 Duds

RT Jeremy Trueblood

LOLB Sean Weatherspoon

FS Thomas DeCoud

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Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bills, Falcons, Uncategorized

Atlanta Falcons (2-9) at Buffalo Bills (4-7)

The Falcons came into last week on a 4 game losing streak, having lost those last 4 by a combined 74 points. However, they were able to play the Saints very close at home in Atlanta in a 17-13 loss. Some people might believe that means they’ll be better going forward. I think it’s the opposite. I think this was a team that was not used to losing like this, so they quit on the season, with the exception of a huge home game against divisional rival New Orleans, which was essentially their Super Bowl. Now that they lost that, they will probably be pretty flat for the rest of the season, especially for a team like Buffalo. Given that, they could be in a lot of trouble on the road here, where they have yet to cover thus far this season, especially since they have a bigger game in Green Bay next week. If Rodgers returns, they could be double digit underdogs and teams are 34-69 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs.

The Falcons’ offense is actually pretty good, moving the chains at a 77% rate, as Matt Ryan is doing a very good job this season despite not having any help offensively. However, their defense might be the worst in the entire NFL, allowing opponents to move the chains at an 82% rate. That differential is 26th in the NFL. The Bills, meanwhile, rank 22nd in the NFL, moving the chains at a 69% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents. They’re as healthy as they’ve been all season right now. Stephon Gilmore, Jairus Byrd, and EJ Manuel have all returned, while CJ Spiller could be more explosive after an extra week to rest his ankle, off of the bye. Steve Johnson and Robert Woods are also expected back this week. There’s no reason they should only be favored by 3.5 points here. That suggests they are barely better than the Falcons, which isn’t true.

The Bills have also been very good at home this season, beating the Ravens and the Panthers, almost beating the Bengals, Chiefs, and Patriots, and blowing out the Jets, 5 teams that are all currently in the playoff race and a combined 42-24 on the season. The Falcons are by far the easiest team they’ve faced at home this season and they could easily blow them out like they did to the Jets. The only concern is this game is up the road a little bit in Toronto, so it’s not a true home game. It’ll still be mostly Buffalo fans, but they haven’t had a ton of success in Toronto in the past so playing there could conceivably screw with their good home mojo. I’m still pretty confident in them though.

Buffalo Bills 27 Atlanta Falcons 17

Pick against spread: Buffalo -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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