Falcons

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons: 2018 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (4-5) at Atlanta Falcons (4-5)

Both of these teams are pretty banged up. The Falcons are missing starting safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen for the season, while recently activated linebacker Deion Jones is at least a week from returning for the first time since week 1. Without those three, the Falcons have ranked dead last in first down rate allowed at 44.04%. On offense, they are without starting guards Andy Levitre and Brandon Fusco and starting running back Devonta Freeman, which has led to an inconsistent running game. Another MVP caliber year from Matt Ryan has kept this offense among the better in the league, ranking 7th in first down rate at 40.58%, but this passing game can’t carry this team to the playoffs by itself.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, could be without both starting guards Connor Williams and Zack Martin, though the latter is expected to continue playing through his knee injury. Already without center Travis Frederick since the pre-season, this offensive line is not nearly what it once was, leading to an offense that ranks just 21st in first down rate at 34.55%. Their defense has been what’s kept them respectable, ranking 8th in first down rate allowed at 33.57%, and they are coming off of a strong performance in Philadelphia, despite their defensive injuries. They have a great #1 cornerback in Byron Jones, #1 edge rusher in DeMarcus Lawrence, and two great every down linebackers in Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith, so they’re still one of the better defenses in the league even with a few starters missing.

On paper, I have the Cowboys a couple spots ahead of the Falcons, so we’re getting some line value with the Cowboys as road favorites of more than a field goal. It’s only a half point, but about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, including 1 in 6 by exactly a field goal, so it’s a very significant half point. The Cowboys are also in a slightly better spot. Both of these teams have to play again in 4 days on Thanksgiving, but the Cowboys get to host the Redskins, while the Falcons have to go to New Orleans, which is much more difficult.

Favorites typically don’t cover before being underdogs if their opponent will next be favorites, going 53-89 ATS since 2014, and that’s especially true before being double digit underdogs, which the Falcons are on the early line (+11) in New Orleans. You have to go back 30 years to get a good sample size, but teams are just 21-52 ATS in that spot. The Cowboys should be able to keep this close and have a good chance to pull the upset and steal one on the road.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Atlanta Falcons 23 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Dallas +3.5

Confidence: High

Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns: 2018 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (4-4) at Cleveland Browns (2-6-1)

This line has moved significantly since the early line last week, as the Falcons have gone from being 1-point favorites to now being 6-point favorites. That’s a 5-point line movement that moves through key numbers of 3 and 4, the kind of line movement typically reserved for quarterback injuries. The reason for that is the Falcons blowout win in Washington last week, but that win isn’t as impressive as it looks at first glance because the Redskins are nowhere near as good as their record at 5-3. They have a negative point differential at -12, despite a +7 turnover margin, and rank 22nd in first down rate differential at -2.42%. They also happened to basically lose their entire offensive line to injury in the game.

The Browns didn’t play that well at home for the Chiefs last week, but it was good to see their offense perform well in their first game without Hue Jackson or Todd Haley. New offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens is a former running backs coach and he’s put more of an emphasis on running the ball with talented rookie lead back Nick Chubb and also getting pass catching back Duke Johnson more involved in the offense to combat their lack of depth and experience at wide receiver.

The Browns’ defense is also getting better, with safety Damarious Randall likely returning from a one-game absence, cornerback Denzel Ward returning after getting hurt early in last week’s game, and linebacker Joe Schobert likely returning from a 3 and a half game absence. Schobert was playing at a high level before going down and their recent defensive struggles have coincided with his absence, so his return, even if he’s not quite at 100%, will be huge for this defense. They lost fellow linebacker Christian Kirksey for the season last week, but he had not been playing well of late.

With the Browns getting closer to full health, the Falcons should not be favored by this many points on the road against them. This is not the same Falcons team as recent years, with Ricardo Allen, Keanu Neal, Deion Jones, and Devonta Foreman all on injured reserve. Prior to last week’s win over the mediocre Redskins, they played close games at home against the Buccaneers and Giants. Their offense is strong, but even after last week’s win, they still rank dead last in first down rate allowed at 43.85%. I like the Browns’ chances of keeping this one close and give them an outside chance at pulling the upset.

Atlanta Falcons 34 Cleveland Browns 31

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +6

Confidence: Medium

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Redskins: 2018 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (3-4) at Washington Redskins (5-2)

The Redskins were on my overrated list at the beginning of the week, just because I didn’t think their 5-2 record was indicative of how they’ve played. They’ve benefitted from a 3-0 record in games decided by 7 points or less and a +7 turnover margin, but turnover margins are highly inconsistent week-to-week, so they can’t keep relying on that to win them close games, and they rank just 22nd in first down rate differential at -0.91%.

Given that, I was shocked when they opened as mere 1.5-point home favorites over a banged up Falcons team. The Redskins are not as good as their 5-2 record, but they still have a solid team. The Falcons, meanwhile, are incredibly banged up on defense, missing safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen and linebacker Deion Jones, three of their best defensive players from a defense that had the 3rd fewest adjusted games lost to injury in 2017.

As a result, they rank dead last in first down rate allowed, giving up a first down or touchdown on 45.18% of defensive snaps. They’ve allowed 180 first downs and 26 offensive touchdowns through just 7 games, which puts them on pace for 411 first downs and 59 offensive touchdowns allowed on the season, both of which would be the most since the 1981 Baltimore Colts. Their offense has played well, ranking 8th in first down rate at 40.27%, but that’s not enough to keep up with what their defense is allowing (28th in first down rate differential) and they aren’t healthy on that side of the ball either, with running back Devonta Freeman and starting guards Andy Levitre and Brandon Fusco out indefinitely.

This line suggests the Falcons are better than a solid Redskins team, but they haven’t shown that in recent weeks, with their only recent wins coming by a combined 8 points against the Buccaneers and Giants. I have the Redskins 4 points better than the Falcons in my rankings right now, suggesting they should be favored by about a touchdown. The Redskins have a big injury with left tackle Trent Williams injured, but backup Ty Nsekhe has played alright in his absence in recent years and the Redskins also get a big mid-week addition with safety HaHa Clinton-Dix coming over in a trade with the Packers, in the middle of arguably the best season of his career. In a game where they basically just need to win to cover, the Redskins are an obvious Pick of the Week choice in a 13-game week.

Washington Redskins 27 Atlanta Falcons 20

Pick against the spread: Washington -1.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons: 2018 Week 7 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (1-5) at Atlanta Falcons (2-4)

When this line opened at Atlanta -6 earlier this week, I was considering a bet on the Giants. The Giants were blown out on national television last week on Thursday Night Football against the Eagles, which is probably why the line opened so high, but playing a good team like the Eagles on a short week is very tough, so I didn’t hold that against them too much. On top of that, the rest of the Giants’ losses have been close and the Falcons shouldn’t be favored by 6 points against anyone other than the Bills, given that their injury plagued defense can’t stop anyone.

Unfortunately, the line has since shifted all the way down to 4, so we’ve lost a lot of line value. The Falcons also are expected to get talented defensive tackle Grady Jarrett back from a two game absence, which gives their defense a boost. I’m still taking the Giants because I expect this to be a close game and I expect a much better effort from the Giants with extra time to rest and prepare, but this is a no confidence pick.

Atlanta Falcons 30 New York Giants 27

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +4

Confidence: None

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons: 2018 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) at Atlanta Falcons (1-4)

These two teams are pretty similar, as they have good offenses, but horrendous defenses. The Falcons started the season as a balanced team, but they have had terrible injury luck on defense, with defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, linebacker Deion Jones, and safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen out with injuries. As a result, a team that looked like a possible contender coming into the season has fallen to 1-4 and looks unlikely to improve on defense any time soon.

On the other side, the Buccaneers problem on defense isn’t really injuries; they just have a weak defense. They rank dead last in first down rate allowed at 45.88%, one spot ahead of the Falcons at 45.02%. Fortunately, their offense has been strong to compensate somewhat, ranking 7th in first down rate at 40.56%, a few spots ahead of the Falcons, who rank 10th at 39.25% and continue to be without running back Devonta Freeman with injury.

With Jameis Winston taking his starting job back from Ryan Fitzpatrick, after briefly being benched upon his return from suspension, the Buccaneers’ offense could conceivably improve going forward. Winston played well when healthy last season and has arguably the most talented receiving corps in the NFL, especially with tight end OJ Howard looking likely to return from injury this week. I have the Falcons a couple spots higher in my rankings, so I’m taking them as mere 3 point home favorites, but this game is close to a toss up and could easily push. At 3.5, I’d take the Buccaneers.

Atlanta Falcons 34 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -3

Confidence: None

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2018 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (1-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2-1)

These two teams are pretty similar. Both have strong offenses, but struggle mightily to stop anyone. The Steelers’ defense took a bit hit when they lost linebacker Ryan Shazier to injury last season, but they were an overrated team even before that. Just 5 of their 14 wins over the past 2 seasons have come by more than 7 points, including just 2 since the midpoint of last season, a span of 13 games. Without Shazier, they’ve allowed an average of 27.33 points per game in 9 games.

The Falcons’ defensive issues are also largely due to injury, as they are missing linebacker Deion Jones and safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen for extended periods of time and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett joins them on the sideline this week, making matters worse. Those are 4 of their best defensive players and they weren’t a great defense even with them. On offense, running back Devonta Freeman returns, but they’re still without guard Andy Levitre, so they’re not at full strength on that side of the ball either.

This line favors the Steelers by 3 at home, suggesting these two teams are about even, so we aren’t getting line value in either direction. The Falcons are in a slightly better spot though. While the Steelers have to turn around and go to Cincinnati next week, the Falcons are at home for the Buccaneers. Underdogs are 80-45 ATS before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. The Steelers could have a little bit of split focus this week with the 3-1 Bengals on deck, while the Falcons should be fully focused and cannot afford to fall to 1-4 in the loaded NFC. I wouldn’t recommend betting it, but the Falcons should be the right side.

Pittsburgh Steelers 35 Atlanta Falcons 34

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +3

Confidence: Low

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons: 2018 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)

This line was all the way up to 6 earlier this week, before heavy sharp action on the Bengals bet the line all the way down to 3.5. While I obviously would have preferred 6, we are still getting line value with the Bengals at 3.5. This line suggests that the Falcons are slightly better than the Bengals, but I think that’s backwards. Coming into the season, the Falcons were one of the most talented teams in the league, but they’ve been hit by injuries as hard as anyone early in the season.

Already without top linebacker Deion Jones and top safety Keanu Neal, the Falcons’ defense will now be without their other starting safety Ricardo Allen for the season after he tore his achilles last week. They’ve been one of the worst defensive teams in the league this year (42.23% first down rate allowed, 29th in the NFL) and they’re unlikely to get significantly better any time soon without a major addition. On offense, left guard Andy Levitre is out for the year, while lead back Devonta Freeman will miss at least another week with a knee injury.

The Bengals have players missing too, including suspended linebacker Vontaze Burfict, injured running back Joe Mixon, and injured center Billy Price, but they enter the game with the 4th best first down rate differential in the NFL. They lost their first game without Mixon and Price last week in Carolina, but their offense wasn’t really the problem, as they topped a 40% first down rate for the 3rd week in a row, joining the Rams and the Chiefs as the only teams to do that. In fact, they won the first down battle 25 to 23 last week, losing by 10 primarily because of a -4 turnover margin. Turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so the Bengals aren’t more likely to lose the turnover battle this week as a result of losing it last week.

Burfict will be a big re-addition to an already solid defense next week and Price and Mixon were big parts of their offense before going down, but even without them they still have an improved offensive line and significantly improved skill position talent compared to last season. The Bengals are also in a better spot. While the Falcons have to turn around and go to Pittsburgh next week, where they will be underdogs, the Bengals will be favorites at home for Miami. Underdogs are 120-72 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. This isn’t a huge play, but the Bengals should be the right side.

Atlanta Falcons 31 Cincinnati Bengals 30

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +3.5

Confidence: Medium

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons: 2018 Week 3 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (1-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-1)

This line is at 3, suggesting these two teams are about even. A couple weeks ago, that would have been true, but the Falcons have had serious injury losses early in the season, with running back Devonta Freeman, left guard Andy Levitre, defensive end Takkarist McKinley, linebacker Deion Jones, and safety Keanu Neal all going down in the first 2 weeks of the season. With the Falcons’ roster as it currently is, I have the Saints 5 points better than the Falcons, which would make this line around New Orleans -2.

The Saints have gotten off to a slow start, as they’ve failed to cover twice as big home favorites, losing to the Buccaneers week 1 and coming close to losing to the Browns week 2, which is probably why the line is where it is. I’m not that concerned though. Their schedule has been tougher than it originally looked, as the Buccaneers followed up their win with a win over the Saints, while the Browns could easily be 3-0 right now if they had a competent kicking unit.

The Saints have also typically gotten off to slow starts in recent years, going 2-12 ATS and 3-11 straight up in the first 2 weeks of the season since 2012, before going 50-38 ATS the rest of the year (4-2 ATS in week 3). It’s possible some of that slow start could carry over into this game, but I expect them to be completely focused for a big divisional game and they have the talent edge with the Falcons missing several key contributors. I’m not quite confident enough in the Saints for this to be my Pick of the Week this week, but this is too good of a number to pass on.

New Orleans Saints 33 Atlanta Falcons 30 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: New Orleans +3

Confidence: High

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons: 2018 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-1)

Both of these teams suffered significant injury losses week 1. The Falcons lost safety Keanu Neal and linebacker Deion Jones, two talented young defensive players, and will also be without running back Devonta Freeman for at least one game. Meanwhile, the Panthers, already without left tackle Matt Kalil with a knee injury, lost tight end Greg Olsen and right tackle Daryl Williams for an extended period of time and will also be without right guard Trai Turner this week because of a concussion.

Including the off-season loss of Andrew Norwell, the Panthers have lost 4 of 5 starters on the offensive line since the end of the last season, including a trio of Norwell, Turner, and Williams who were among the best in the league at their respective positions. Coming into the season, I had the Falcons ranked significantly higher than the Panthers and that remains the case after all these injuries on both sides. I liked this line better when it was -5.5 earlier in the week and I may increase the confidence on this bet if it drops back under 6, but the Falcons should be able to win this game at home by at least a touchdown.

Atlanta Falcons 27 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -6

Confidence: Medium

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles: 2018 Week 1 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (0-0) at Philadelphia Eagles (0-0)

I will keep this brief because I am doing this late, but you can click on the team name to see a preview of each team. I have the Eagles as my highest ranked team coming into the season and would likely have them favored by 4.5-5 points if they were at full strength. However, they will not have Carson Wentz, Alshon Jeffery, or Nigel Bradham in this game, which obviously hurts. This line is Atlanta -1, which is about where I’d have it, so we aren’t getting any real line value either way. I am taking the Eagles simply because defending champs tend to do well at home in week 1 Thursday Night games, going 9-3 ATS since 2004. I would not recommend betting this game though. I will have the rest of the week 1 picks on Friday and Saturday as usual.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Atlanta Falcons 23 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +1

Confidence: None