NFL Picks

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (8-5) at New York Jets (4-9)

The Dolphins pulled off the home upset victory last week over the Cardinals, despite being without a trio of key defenders, linebackers Kiko Alonso and Jelani Jenkins and defensive end Mario Williams, all of whom return this week. It was a game they should have lost though, as the Cardinals lost 7 points on special teams, thanks to a missed field goal and two missed extra points, one of which was blocked and returned for 2 points. The Cardinals had the 21-15 edge in first downs and won the first down rate battle by +6.52%.

Teams also tend to struggle off of a home upset victory like that, going 61-80 ATS since 2012, as teams tend to be overrated and overconfident in that spot. However, we’re actually still getting good line value with the Dolphins because they lost quarterback Ryan Tannehill with injury, which dropped this line from 3.5 to 2.5, despite Miami’s upset victory. That might not seem like a big swing, but 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal so it’s a very significant point. Considering backup Matt Moore is one of the better backups in the league and the Dolphins are significantly healthier around the quarterback now than they have been for most of the season, I think the line is very fair.

With that in mind, I’m actually taking the Dolphins as the Jets have to turn around and go to New England next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are just 41-66 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs and the Jets could easily overlook the Dolphins with arguably the biggest game of their season on deck. Because Moore hasn’t made a start since 2011, there’s not enough here for me to be confident enough in Miami to put money on them, but they should be the right side. Even a field goal road victory covers this spread.

Miami Dolphins 20 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: Miami -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (7-6) at Chicago Bears (3-10)

The Packers got a huge home win over the Seahawks last week, handing Seattle their biggest loss in the Russell Wilson era, 38-10. Unfortunately for them, teams are just 61-80 ATS off of a home win as underdogs, as teams in that spot tend to be overrated and overconfident. Typically, I love betting against teams coming off of home upset wins and the Packers are no exception. The Packers’ big win last week shifted this line all the way from 3.5 in favor of Green Bay to 7, which I think is an overreaction, especially since the Bears almost won in Detroit. The Packers’ win last week was impressive, but much of that big margin of victory was as a result of a fluky +6 turnover margins. Turnover margins tend to be incredibly inconsistent on a week to week basis. In fact, teams that have a +6 turnover margin, on average, have a turnover margin of just +0.3 the following week.

The Bears, meanwhile, have had arguably the most injuries in the league, but they haven’t been bad overall this season and they are still fighting despite being down to backups at multiple spots on both sides of the ball. They rank 18th in first down rate and just 2 of their last 7 losses have come by more than 6 points. At home, the Bears are 3-3 with a +11 point differential and just one loss by more than 6 points (back in week 2). This week, the Bears get top wide receiver Alshon Jeffery back from a 4-game suspension, a much needed re-addition for this offense. With this line jumping to 7 as a result of Green Bay’s big win last week, I like the Bears a good amount this week, as they should be able to keep it close against a team that could be overconfident off of a huge win and that has Minnesota and Detroit in their final 2 games of the regular season after this relatively “easy” game.

Green Bay Packers 23 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7

Confidence: High

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Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Philadelphia Eagles (5-8) at Baltimore Ravens (7-6)

Much like many Ravens teams in recent memory, this Ravens team has a great defense, but an underwhelming offense. They enter this game 30th in first down rate, but 3rd in first down rate allowed and 15th in first down rate differential. The Eagles enter this game 26th in first down rate differential and very banged up on the offensive line, so the Ravens are definitely the better team here, but, with the line being 6, Philadelphia becomes a very appealing bet here because of the type of team Baltimore is. The Ravens have won just 3 of 12 games by more than 6 points in the past 2 seasons and are also without top cornerback Jimmy Smith, a big blow to this defense. Even though the Ravens are 15th in first down rate differential and the Eagles are 26th, there’s a smaller gap between 15th and 26th than there is between 8th and 15th, so these two teams are closer than that suggests.

The Ravens are also in a tough spot with a huge divisional clash with the Steelers on deck, a game in which the Ravens figure to be at least 6 point underdogs in Pittsburgh. Favorites of 6 or more are just 51-87 ATS since 2002 before being underdogs of 6 or more. With that huge game on deck, the Ravens could easily overlook the Eagles, who could pull off the win in a trap game. Even if they don’t, we’re getting 6 points with them and this should be another close game for the Ravens. If you can get the full 6, it’s worth a bet.

Baltimore Ravens 16 Philadelphia Eagles 13

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +6

Confidence: Medium

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Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (10-3) at San Diego Chargers (5-8)

The Raiders are 10-3, but are not nearly as good as their record suggests, as their record is largely the result of a 7-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a league best +15 turnover margin. Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, as there’s no week-to-week correlation in turnover margin. Outside of those 15 plays, the Raiders have been a pretty average team this year and they are legitimately a few snaps away from being 7-6 or 6-7. In terms of first down rate differential, they rank just 21st in the league.

This game figures to be a lot tougher for the Raiders than people expect, as not only are the Raiders overrated, but the Chargers are underrated and in a great spot. Despite a 5-8 record, the Chargers have a positive point differential at +3, not far behind the Raiders at +38. That’s despite the fact that the Chargers are -5 in turnover margin on the season. They have 18 more first downs and 2 more offensive touchdowns than their opponents on the season and rank 5th in first down rate differential, significantly higher than the Raiders.

The Chargers will be missing starting running back Melvin Gordon in this game, a big loss considering the Chargers are down to 4th string running back Kenneth Farrow, an undrafted rookie, with backups Danny Woodhead and Darren Oliver already out for the season. However, the Raiders will be without top safety Karl Joseph, who has been one of the Raiders’ best defensive players this season and one of the top defensive rookies in the NFL, so it kind of cancels out.

Gordon’s injury certainly doesn’t warrant a line movement all the way from San Diego -1 to Oakland -3 in one week, especially when the Raiders lost in Kansas City last week. The Chargers also have no upcoming distractions with a trip to Cleveland on deck. They will almost definitely be road favorites in Cleveland and home underdogs are 81-44 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. About 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less (including 4 of the Raiders’ 10 wins), so I’d put money on San Diego at 3, but I also like the Chargers’ chances of winning straight up.

San Diego Chargers 23 Oakland Raiders 20 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: San Diego +3

Confidence: Medium

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Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (4-9) at Seattle Seahawks (8-4-1)

The Rams finally parted ways with head coach Jeff Fisher after last week’s embarrassing 42-14 home loss to the Atlanta Falcons. Fisher did absolutely nothing to improve the team in his almost 5 years on the job, so it was a long overdue move, but the timing could not be worse as now interim head coach John Fassel has to prepare a gameplan on a short week for the Seattle Seahawks, who host them on Thursday Night Football this week. The Rams have had success against the Seahawks in recent years, but Seattle is still one of the toughest places in the NFL to play, so Fassel’s first game couldn’t be tougher. Making matters worse, the Seahawks are actually in a great spot this week for a couple of reasons.

For one, they were embarrassed last week in Green Bay, more so than the Rams actually. The Rams were 6.5 point home underdogs against an Atlanta team that’s one of the best in the NFL. They were supposed to lose and lose big. The Seahawks, however, lost by 28 in Green Bay as 3 point road favorites, their first loss by more than 10 points in the Russell Wilson era. Teams are 94-54 ATS since 2002 off of an against the spread loss of 28 or more, as teams tend to bounce back from embarrassing losses. The Seahawks have a great chance to bounce back in a big way this week, especially since Russell Wilson is 14-6-1 ATS in his career off a loss and the Seahawks are 33-11-1 ATS in games 9-16 of the regular season in the Pete Carroll era (since 2011).

The second reason is because the Seahawks figure to be big home favorites again next week against the Cardinals and teams tend to take care of business as big favorites before being big favorites again. Since 2012, favorites of 6 or more are 94-52 ATS before being favorites of 6 or more again the following week. It’s tough to stomach putting money on the Seahawks with this line jumping to 15 in the wake of the Rams’ loss and Jeff Fisher being fired, but the Seahawks should win pretty easily and they are definitely the right side in pick ‘em leagues.

Seattle Seahawks 27 Los Angeles Rams 6

Pick against the spread: Seattle -15

Confidence: Low

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Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (7-5) at New England Patriots (10-2)

The Patriots are a very interesting team. Despite being without Tom Brady for the first 4 games of the season, they rank 2nd in first down rate. Since Brady returned, they are 7-1 with 6 of 7 wins by double digits. However, they have had a very easy schedule over those 8 games. Aside from Seattle, who beat them by a touchdown in New England, their toughest game since Brady’s return was in Buffalo. Yes, they can only play the teams that are on their schedule and they’ve done pretty well in doing so, as most of the wins have come by convincing margins, but Jamie Collins is in Cleveland, Rob Gronkowski is on injured reserve, and it’s fair to wonder how good they really are. We’ll find out a lot this week as they host the Baltimore Ravens, who are a step up in class from most of the teams the Patriots have faced in recent weeks.

After largely playing close games all season, the Ravens got their biggest win by margin of victory since 2009 last week, with a 38-6 home victory over a capable Miami team. It was out of character for this team, but boosted them to 12nd in first down rate differential and moved this line from 10 on the early line last week to 6.5 this week. As a result, we’re not getting good line value with the Ravens. However, the Ravens are in a good spot with an easy home game against the Eagles on deck, while the Patriots have to go to Denver next week. Underdogs of 6 or more points are 41-31 ATS since 2008 before being favorites of 6 or more the following week, which the Ravens are expected to be, according to the early line. It’s a no confidence pick at 6.5, but the Ravens are the pick for pick ‘em purposes.

New England Patriots 24 Baltimore Ravens 19

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +6.5

Confidence: None

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Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Dallas Cowboys (11-1) at New York Giants (8-4)

The Giants gave the Cowboys their only win of the season way back in week 1, but the Cowboys have very impressively ripped off 11 straight wins since then. They enter this game 2nd in first down rate differential, while the Giants enter 8th, and they travel as well as any team in the league. Since 2010, they are 31-22 ATS on the road, as opposed to 19-35 ATS at home. Over that time period, they’ve been outscored opponents by 0.06 points per game on the road and outscored opponents by an average of 1.20 points per game at home, meaning home field advantage hasn’t even been worth a point for them in recent years. The Cowboys also enter this game much healthier than the Giants, who have a key absence on both sides of the ball with injury, talented left guard Justin Pugh and talented defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul. This line is 4 and about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, so I’m taking the Giants, but this is a no confidence pick. A 3 or 4 point Dallas win seems like the most likely outcome.

Dallas Cowboys 23 New York Giants 20

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +4

Confidence: None

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San Diego Chargers at Carolina Panthers: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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San Diego Chargers (5-7) at Carolina Panthers (4-8)

Five of the Panthers’ first seven losses came by 3 points or less, but their 8th loss of the season last week came in a 40-7 blowout in Seattle. Because of injuries, the Panthers are not the same team they were earlier this year. They’re down to their 3rd string center and 3rd string left tackle and are also missing top defensive player Luke Kuechly with injury. The Panthers fell to 23rd in first down rate differential with last week’s blowout loss and I think it would be hard to argue they’re not a bottom-10 team right now.

The Chargers, meanwhile, rank 6th in first down rate differential, despite their 5-7 record. All 7 of their losses have come by 8 points or fewer and they have a +15 point differential despite only having 5 wins. They also have a+19 first down differential, 7th best in the NFL. There’s not enough for me to bet any money on the Chargers with even odds, but they should be the pick because they are an underrated team and the Panthers are falling apart.

San Diego Chargers 23 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against the spread: San Diego PK

Confidence: Low

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Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (6-5-1) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-7)

The Eagles got blown out last week in Cincinnati and have been unimpressive offensively since losing stud right tackle Lane Johnson to suspension, but they still have a strong defense and they get their top-2 skill position players, wide receiver Jordan Matthews and running back Ryan Mathews, back from injury this week. They are at least as good as their opponents this week, the Washington Redskins. The Eagles have an advantage in point differential (+23 vs. +8) and in first down rate differential (20th vs. 24th). Despite that, the Eagles are 2.5 point home underdogs and the public is all over the Redskins, as a result of the Redskins’ better record (6-5-1 vs. 5-7). I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and it definitely does here, as the Eagles should be favored by a field goal. I’d need the full field goal with the Eagles to put money on the spread, but the money line is a good value either way.

Philadelphia Eagles 26 Washington Redskins 24 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia +2.5

Confidence: Low

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Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Arizona Cardinals (5-6-1) at Miami Dolphins (7-5)

The Dolphins were shockingly blown out in Baltimore last week, the Ravens’ biggest win by point total since 2009. That almost definitely figures to be the worst game of the Dolphins’ season when all is said and done. Besides last week, they’ve played pretty well and are still a capable team that ranks 18th in first down rate differential. The Dolphins’ loss last week actually puts them in a good spot this week. That might sound counterintuitive, but teams are 92-54 ATS since 2002 off of an against the spread loss of 28 or more (the Dolphins lost by 32 as 3.5 point underdogs).

It makes sense when you think about it, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. On top of that, the Dolphins have a very easy game on deck as they head to New York to take on the Jets next week, a game in which they will almost definitely be road favorites. Home underdogs like the Dolphins are here (by 2 points) are 79-44 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites, as teams tend to be very focused in a tough home game before an easy road game.

The Dolphins could easily bounce back with a strong effort this week, but all that being said I’m picking the Cardinals as long as this line is under a field goal. The Cardinals are at the top of my underrated teams list. Despite their 5-6-1 record, they’ve won the first down rate battle in 10 of 12 games and they could easily be 9-3 right now, as they could have beaten New England, Los Angeles, Seattle, and Minnesota if one or two fluky things had gone their way (missed field goal against New England, punt return against Rams, blocked punt against Seattle, pick six against Minnesota).

The Cardinals actually rank 1st in first down rate differential. They ranked 1st in that metric last year as well. Carson Palmer is having a down year and they aren’t the same on either side of the ball without injured left tackle Jared Veldheer and injured defensive back Tyrann Mathieu, but they still have a strong defense and running game and are one of the better teams in the league in a year where there are very few top level teams. Even if the Dolphins bring a strong effort, the Cardinals could win by a field goal on the road, especially with the Dolphins missing center Mike Pouncey, linebackers Kiko Alonso and Jelani Jenkins, and defensive end Mario Williams with injury.

Arizona Cardinals 23 Miami Dolphins 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona -2

Confidence: None

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