NFL Picks

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (1-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-1)

I’ve seen a couple articles this week asking what’s wrong with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. That doesn’t make sense to me. The Packers opened their season with two road games and played pretty well in both games all things considering, beating a capable Jacksonville team week 1 and then barely losing last week against a good Minnesota team. Despite splitting the two games, they actually moved the chains better than their opponents in both games and only lost in Minnesota because of a +2 turnover margin.

Turnover margin tends to be very inconsistent week-to-week and the Packers tend be better at winning the turnover battle than most, so I don’t see that as a long-term problem. They’re unlikely to be as good offensively as they were in 2014, when they finished 1st in rate of moving the chains (RMC), but they figure to finish significantly better than last season, when they finished 16th in that statistic, especially as Jordy Nelson gets back into game shape after missing all of last season with a torn ACL and especially as more home games come up on the schedule.

Now back at home, they have a very good chance to get back on track. They went just 4-4 ATS at home last season, but went 36-23 ATS in Lambeau from 2008 to 2014. Even if they don’t recapture that old home magic, it definitely helps that they’re going into a bye. Big favorites tend to take care of business going into a bye, as home favorites of 6 or more are 61-22 ATS before a bye since 2002. Their offense especially has a good chance to get back on track this week, as Detroit is missing two of their top three defensive players, linebacker DeAndre Levy and defensive end Ezekiel Ansah, with injury. That leaves their defense very vulnerable. This is the easiest matchup the Packers have had thus far. Jacksonville’s defense wasn’t good, but that was a road game and the Packers still moved the chains at a respectable 75.00% rate.

As long as this line is 7 or fewer, this is a money play, though I’d be more hesitant at 7.5, as Detroit has a strong offense and I’d be worried about Detroit driving down the field down two touchdowns late for the backdoor cover, especially with the Packers missing some guys on defense as well (though not anyone as important as Ansah or Levy). The backdoor cover possibility also scares me off of making this my Pick of the Week, as does the fact that the Packers are playing a week 3 home opener, which historically doesn’t go well. Teams are just 24-46 ATS in a week 3 home opener since 1989. The Packers have had to travel a lot already and that could give the Lions an advantage, but their upcoming bye should keep them focused on this week and I like their chances of putting up a big number on Detroit’s injury plagued defense.

Green Bay Packers 31 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (0-2) at Dallas Cowboys (1-1)

The Bears have been hit hard by the injury bug early in the season. Not only is quarterback Jay Cutler out for this game with a thumb injury, they’re also without starting linebackers Pernell McPhee and Danny Trevathan, reserve linebacker Lamarr Houston, and top defensive lineman Eddie Goldman, while top cornerback Kyle Fuller is questionable after missing the first two games of the season with an ankle injury. That’s a lot to be missing from a defense that wasn’t great to begin with.

However, the Cowboys are missing a lot of guys as well. Top cornerback Orlando Scandrick will be out for this one, while starting defensive ends Randy Gregory and DeMarcus Lawrence and starting middle linebacker Rolando McClain are all suspended and of course quarterback Tony Romo remains on the sidelines with a back injury. They won in Washington last week, but only by 4 and against a Redskins team that isn’t playing well right now. Cowboys Backup quarterback Dak Prescott understandably hasn’t quite lived up to his big pre-season and has a patchwork defense supporting him, so the Cowboys shouldn’t be favored by a touchdown against anyone, except for maybe the Browns.

The Bears aren’t that bad. They’re actually in pretty capable hands with backup quarterback Brian Hoyer, who has made 22 starts over the past 2 seasons and has shown himself to at least be a low end starting quarterback. He had success throwing to DeAndre Hopkins and will likely have similar success with Bears #1 receiver Alshon Jeffery, a similar player. Even with Goldman, Houston, and Trevathan going down too, this line shouldn’t have moved from 3.5 on the early line to 7 this week as a result of Cutler’s injury, especially if Fuller can play.

The Cowboys also haven’t had much homefield advantage in recent years, as they are 15-34 ATS at home since 2010, including 8-26 ATS as home favorites, as opposed to 28-21 ATS on the road. That makes sense, as the Cowboys have fans scattered around the country and normally have many of their own fans in attendance at road games, while their home stadium is a bit of a tourist attraction and often has many visiting fans as a result. There aren’t a lot of good sides this week, but I like the Bears a good amount.

Dallas Cowboys 23 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7

Confidence: High

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Houston Texans at New England Patriots: 2016 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (2-0) at New England Patriots (2-0)

Last week, the early line was 3.5 in favor of the hometown New England Patriots. When I saw that, my first thought was New England was likely to cover. Home non-divisional favorites on Thursday nights are 34-16 ATS since 1989. Thursday night games are tough enough for players, but they’re especially tough when you have to go on the road and face a comparable or better opponent, unless that opponent is a divisional opponent that you play twice a year. This game fit all 3 criteria and the Patriots had proven themselves to still be a tough opponent, even without Tom Brady, with a win in Arizona week 1.

Of course, the Patriots lost backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo last week, which changed matters a lot. Now the Patriots are in a tough situation, scrambling to get 3rd string quarterback Jacoby Brissett, a 3rd round rookie out of NC State, ready to start on a short week. That also changed the line as now the Patriots are underdogs of 3 points at home. That seems like far too drastic of a swing. In fact, the New England/Arizona line only shifted about 6 points immediately after Brady’s suspension was upheld.

The Patriots went from leading 24-3 when Garoppolo went down to barely hanging on by the final score of 31-24 aftewards, but that’s not really an indictment on Brissett. The Patriots’ defense played a lot better in the first half than the second half and Brissett didn’t even have that many pass attempts, as the Patriots just tried to run out the clock with what was once a big lead (as high as 31-3 at one point). Brissett only threw 9 passes in a little over a half, completing 6 of them for 92 yards. Two of the 3 incompletions were drops by Julian Edelman that were not in the best spot. All in all, for coming into the game cold off the bench, Brissett wasn’t bad and could conceivably lead a run heavy offense to victory, though he’s a major question mark.

The Texans have a strong defense so the Patriots are unlikely to win a shootout, but they have a good defense as well and figure to be able to keep the Texans’ offense in check on a short week. The Texans remain without left tackle Duane Brown with injury, while the Patriots are reportedly likely to get back both linebacker Dont’a Hightower and tight end Rob Gronkowski from injury. One in 6 games are decided by a field goal or less, so I like the Patriots’ chances of at least keeping this one close at home. They’re 41-22 ATS as underdogs under Bill Belichick, including 8-6 ATS without Brady, and 12-3 ATS as home underdogs under Bill Belichick, including 2-1 ATS without Brady. In some places, this line has dropped to 1.5-2.5, in which case this is a lower confidence play, but it’s a money play at 3 for sure.

New England Patriots 16 Houston Texans 13 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: New England +3

Confidence: Medium

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Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (1-0) at Cleveland Browns (0-1)

One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against week-to-week overreactions, so I always check to see how much the line has changed since the early line the previous week. Sometimes big line movements make sense, but often they don’t. This line was 3.5 a week ago, but has since moved all the way to 6. It’s unclear why. The Browns struggled mightily in Philadelphia last week, but we already knew they were a bad team. The Ravens had a solid performance last week against the Bills, but they’re not good enough to be favored by this many points on the road against anyone, especially with top pass rusher Elvis Dumervil missing his 2nd straight game with injury. It’s a no confidence play, but Cleveland is the pick here.

Baltimore Ravens 17 Cleveland Browns 12

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +6

Confidence: None

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Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (0-1) at Detroit Lions (1-0)

One of my favorite things to do as a bettor is go against week-to-week overreactions, so I always check to see how much the line has changed since the early line the previous week. Sometimes big line movements make sense, but often they don’t. This line was 3.5 a week ago, but has since moved all the way to 6. At first glance, that might make sense, as Detroit pulled the upset victory in Indianapolis, while the Titans lost by 9 at home to Shaun Hill in the Vikings, but Indianapolis is an overrated team, so that win wasn’t that impressive, while the Titans actually outplayed Minnesota for most of the game, outside of two offensive plays that ended up going for defensive touchdowns the other way. They actually moved the chains at a 70.00% rate, as opposed to 62.50% for Minnesota. Their defense looked impressive, holding Adrian Peterson to one of the least productive games of his career (31 yards on 19 carries).

The Titans did lose outside linebacker Derrick Morgan to injury last week and they really missed him when he was injured last season, but they drafted outside linebacker Kevin Dodd in the 2nd round for depth purposes, so they’re much better prepared to handle his absence this time around. On the other side, the Lions are without top linebacker DeAndre Levy. The Lions are a solid team and better than the Titans, but this line is too high at 6 points. It’s not enough for me to put any money on it, but I’m taking the points here.

Detroit Lions 27 Tennessee Titans 23

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +6

Confidence: Low

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Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (1-0) at Minnesota Vikings (1-0)

This is one of the tougher calls of the week for me. Minnesota is still a solid team despite losing Teddy Bridgewater, but they are also missing defensive starters Xavier Rhodes and Sharrif Floyd and quarterback Sam Bradford is going into his first start with the team, after being acquired just two weeks ago. If this line was a field goal, I’d take the Vikings just because 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, but this line is at 2.5 (2 in many places). The Packers are missing top cornerback Sam Shields with a concussion, but are still the significant better team, so I like their chances of winning by at least a field goal in Minnesota, but not enough to be at all confident in them.

Green Bay Packers 23 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -2.5

Confidence: None

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Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (0-1) at Denver Broncos (1-0)

Coming into the season, I thought the Colts were one of the most overrated teams in the league. They get Andrew Luck back after an 8-8 2015 season, but their passing offense wasn’t the problem last season, as Matt Hasselbeck was serviceable until the last couple weeks of the season and actually outplayed Luck statistically. Their defense took a step back from the season before and they struggled mightily running the ball and protecting the quarterback. Their running backs and offensive line remain a problem and the defense could take another step back. They lost top linebacker Jerrell Freeman in free agency and have the oldest defense in the league, which looks like one of the worst in the league on paper, especially with Trent Cole, Henry Anderson, Patrick Robinson, and Vontae Davis all out with injuries. Luck’s obviously a big re-addition, but it’s probably not enough for this team to get back to the playoffs.

However, I also thought the Broncos were overrated coming into the season. They finished last regular season just 11th in rate of moving the chains differential and might not have even made the playoffs if not for an unsustainably good record in games decided by a touchdown or less, 9-3. This off-season, they lost two defensive starters in Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan, who were not replaced, as well as talented guard Evan Mathis. They’re starting a 2nd year 7th rookie pick at quarterback, one of the least qualified week 1 starting quarterbacks in years, and have underwhelming talent around him on offense, especially with Demaryius Thomas dealing with a limiting hip injury. Even if they do win here, it could easily be another close game for a team who has won 12 of their last 16 wins by 7 points or fewer (including last post-season), relevant considering this line is 6.5. That seems way too high to me, even with the Colts banged up.

The Broncos won last week at home against a tough Carolina team and looked good doing it, but easily could have lost if not for a missed field goal at the end of the game (or if not for a timely Gary Kubiak timeout, which forced Graham Gano to re-kick after making the first one). Besides, defending Super Bowl champions tend to do well week 1. In the last 10 instances, Super Bowl Champions who open at home on a Thursday Night are 8-1-1 ATS, but the previous 9 teams are just 2-7 ATS the following week. Opening as Super Bowl champions is a very emotional game, so it makes sense teams would play well, but it’s also hard to carry that kind of performance into the following week.

Teams are also 48-74 ATS since 2012 off of a win as home underdogs. Teams tend to be overconfident and overvalued off of a big home win against a superior opponent. At the very least, the Broncos are overvalued here at 6.5, especially considering this line was at just 3.5 a week ago. I think a line of 4 or so would have much more appropriate. The Broncos also have a tougher opponent next week, as they head to Cincinnati, while the Colts host the Chargers. Underdogs are 80-56 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. Coming off an emotional, close win, the Broncos could easily not be focused for an inferior opponent, especially with another tough game on deck, while the Colts figure to be focused, facing the defending champions, with an easier home game on deck. I think it’s very unlikely that the Broncos win by more than 7. I’ll take 6.5 if I have to, but it’d be a bigger play at 7. The money line at +230 is also a good value if you like to take bigger risks.

Denver Broncos 23 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +6.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at Arizona Cardinals (0-1)

The Cardinals lost in upset fashion to the Patriots last week, but could have easily won that game if they hadn’t missed a 47-yard field goal at the end of the game. They actually slightly outplayed the Patriots, moving the chains at a 80.00% rate, as opposed to 75.00% for the Patriots. This week, I think we’re getting good line value with the Cardinals, with the line shifting from 8.5 on the early line last week to 7 this week, largely as a result of Arizona’s loss. I wish we were getting 6.5 with the Cardinals and I’d need the line to be that low to put money on this one, but Arizona should be the right side even at 7.

Tampa Bay looked solid in Atlanta last week, but Atlanta has one of the least talented rosters in the NFL. The Buccaneers are better than last season, but played a very easy schedule last season and still have a lot of significant issues. Arizona, meanwhile, was one of the best teams in the league last season. They were also one of the oldest in the league, but they kept all of their key players in free agency and added both Chandler Jones and Evan Mathis, though the latter is out for this one for an injury. They still figure to be one of the better teams in the league this season and should win this one by double digits. If you can get 6.5, it’s worth a bet.

Arizona Cardinals 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

Pick against the spread: Arizona -7

Confidence: Low

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Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (0-1) at New England Patriots (1-0)

The Dolphins are in a much better spot than the Patriots here, as they have arguably the easiest game of their season on deck, a home game against the Browns in which they’re favored by a touchdown in the early line, while the Patriots have to play again in 4 days against the Texans on Thursday Night Football. Underdogs of 6 or more are 40-29 ATS before being favorites of 6 or more since 2008, while teams are 48-71 ATS as favorites before Thursday Night Football. The Dolphins could easily be a lot more focused for this one than their opponent.

On top of that, the Dolphins are in their 2nd of two road games, coming off a loss in Seattle. Teams are 131-95 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 106-64 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 226-229 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 322-438 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.74 points per game.

That being said, this line is way too low for me at 6.5 to put any money on the Dolphins. The Patriots showed last week that even without Tom Brady, Nate Solder, Sebastian Vollmer, Dion Lewis, and Rob Gronkowski, they’re still a very capable football team. They could have easily lost if not for a botched 47-yard potential game winning field goal by the Cardinals, but even losing by 1 would have been impressive on the road, against the Cardinals. This is the most talented Patriots’ defense since their undefeated 2007 team, keeping the Cardinals’ high flying offense in check. If they can get guys back on offense, they’re probably the team to beat in the NFL. This week, they get Nate Solder and possibly Rob Gronkowski back.

The Dolphins, meanwhile, are overrated coming off of a 2 point loss in Seattle. The only reason that game was close is the Dolphins won the turnover margin by 2, but turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and the Patriots historically do very well in turnover margin. The Dolphins only moved the chains at a 54.55% rate last week, as opposed to 70.97% for the Seahawks. One of the worst teams in the league last season (31st in rate of moving the chains differential), the Dolphins are better coached this year, but lost a trio of talented free agents in Lamar Miller, Olivier Vernon, and Derrick Shelby and have one of the least talented rosters in the league. Missing center Mike Pouncey for the 2nd straight week, they figure to have a hard time scoring against New England, even though the Patriots are missing linebacker Dont’a Hightower. I’m taking the Dolphins to keep this closer than a touchdown because they’re in a better spot, but I’d need at least 7.5 to consider putting any money on this.

New England Patriots 17 Miami Dolphins 13

Pick against the spread: Miami +6.5

Confidence: Low

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Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans: 2016 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) at Houston Texans (1-0)

The Texans are in a tough spot this week, as they’re favored by 2 at home against the Chiefs, but have to turn around and play in New England in 4 days after this game on Thursday Night Football, a game in which they’ll definitely be underdogs. As a result, they could easily look past the Chiefs a little bit here at home. Teams are just 48-71 ATS as favorites before Thursday Night Football. The Chiefs, meanwhile, host the Jets next week, an easier matchup, and figure to be more focused. Underdogs are 80-56 ATS since 2012 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs.

I’ve been holding out all week waiting for the line to move to 3 on this one, but it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen and the line is now even as low as 1 or 1.5 in same places, after opening at 2.5. That’s likely the result of big bets by sharp bettors on the Chiefs, so downward line movement is actually a good sign here. It’s more or less all the same under 3, though obviously try to get this as high as possible if you can. The Chiefs are banged up early in the season, missing running back Jamaal Charles and outside linebacker Justin Houston, but backup Spencer Ware has replaced Charles well and the Texans are missing key players too, without left tackle Duane Brown, center Nick Martin, and middle linebacker Brian Cushing, while JJ Watt does not look 100% off of back surgery. I like the Chiefs to come in and win this one outright in “upset” fashion.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Houston Texans 13 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Kansas City +2

Confidence: Medium

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