Giants

Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants: 2017 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (6-3) at New York Giants (1-8)

The Giants hit rock bottom last week, falling to 1-8 in a double digit loss to a previously winless 49ers team. The Giants have had injuries, but they don’t seem to be trying hard either. This is a very veteran team with very little good young talent and they don’t seem to want to try hard for head coach Ben McAdoo in a lost season. It’s possible they put in more effort this week for the Kansas City Chiefs, a much tougher opponent, but it’s also possible they mail it in if they go down by multiple scores early, especially since they have to go to Washington on a short week next week. They are currently 8.5 point underdogs on the early line for that Thanksgiving game.

Underdogs of 6+ are 35-54 ATS since 2014 before being underdogs of 6+ again. It’s very tough for inferior teams to keep up with superior teams if they have another tough game on deck. That’s especially true if the superior opponent doesn’t have a tough game on deck, which the Chiefs don’t, with the Bills coming to town next week. The early line has the Chiefs as 7.5 point favorites. Favorites of 6+ are 65-40 ATS since 2014 before being favorites of 6+ again. Combining trends, favorites of 6+ are 35-9 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6+ again when their opponent will be 6+ point underdogs again the following week.

The Chiefs are also coming out of a bye and big road favorites tend to cover after a bye. Road favorites of 3.5+ are are 42-17 ATS since 1989 off of a regular season bye when their opponent is not coming off of a bye. The Giants have already lost at home by big margins twice this season against good teams coming out of their bye, as the Seahawks won 24-7 and the Rams won 51-17. The Chiefs could easily do that as well, but we aren’t getting any line value with them at -10. The Chiefs rank dead last in first down rate allowed this season, as they’ve been unable to get off the field defensively without forcing turnovers. They could allow the Giants to hang around in garbage time if the Giants actually put in effort for the full 60 minutes. If this line drops under 10, I may reconsider, but this is a low confidence pick for now. The Chiefs are also the smart survivor pick this week if you have not used them yet.

Update: -9.5 has popped up in a few places Sunday morning, despite wide receiver Sterling Shepard and cornerback Eli Apple being unexpectedly inactive. Grab -9.5 if you can get it.

Kansas City Chiefs 31 New York Giants 17 Survivor Pick

Pick against the spread: Kansas City -9.5

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers: 2017 Week 10 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (1-7) at San Francisco 49ers (0-9)

The Giants lost 51-17 at home to the Rams last week, but they were missing a lot of guys with injury and they quit once they got down early. The Giants still have injury problems and will be without several key players for the rest of the season (center Weston Richburg, wide receivers Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall), but they should get defensive end Olivier Vernon, right tackle Justin Pugh, and cornerback Janoris Jenkins back this week, which should be a big help.

The 49ers also have a lot of injury problems and have the worst roster in the NFL right now as a result, so the Giants probably be favored by at least 3 here in San Francisco. At -2.5, they seem like a smart pick as they have a good chance to bounce back against a significantly inferior opponent. I can’t be confident in them though, given all of the locker room problems they are having right now. This is a veteran team whose season is basically over and the coaching staff may have lost control.

New York Giants 20 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -2.5

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants: 2017 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (5-2) at New York Giants (1-6)

The Rams are one of the surprise teams in the league this season, as they come out of their bye week at 5-2. They’ll face a different kind of surprise team this week, as the New York Giants, who went 11-5 last season, have started this season 1-6, thanks in large part to injuries. The Giants enter this game missing 8 starters from week 1, including some above average starters like defensive end Olivier Vernon, cornerback Janoris Jenkins, wide receiver Odell Beckham, center Weston Richburg, and guard/tackle Justin Pugh. The Rams, meanwhile, are about as close to 100% healthy as any team in the league, after getting talented safety LaMarcus Joyner back from injury before the bye.

As a result, the Rams are favored by 4.5 points here in New York. Big road favorites tend to cover after a bye, as road favorites of 3.5+ are 50-26 ATS since 1989, but there are two problems. For one, the Giants are also coming out of a bye and that trend drops to 10-10 ATS when the opponent is also coming out of a bye. The second problem is I don’t know if the Rams quite deserve to be favored by this many. Even with all of the Giants’ injuries, I still have this line calculated at -2, as the Rams are still a middling team that has been helped by an easy schedule. With that in mind, I’m actually taking the Giants here, though for a no confidence pick.

Los Angeles Rams 20 New York Giants 16

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +4.5

Confidence: None

Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants: 2017 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (3-2) at New York Giants (1-5)

The Seahawks are 3-2 and in a great spot here coming out of their bye week. On the road in The Meadowlands against the Giants, the Seahawks are 4 point road favorites. Road favorites of 3 or more have an incredible track record coming out of the bye, going 41-13 ATS since 2002. However, I can’t be confident in the Seahawks this week because I’m not sure they deserve to be favored by 4 points here, especially considering about 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer. Despite their solid record, this has not been the same Seattle team we’ve seen in recent years.

Their 3 wins have come against the 49ers, Colts, and Rams, who are not exactly a tough trio, and they rank just 21st in first down rate differential. While it feels like they could just turn it on mid-season like they normally do, this roster does have some serious problems, given their injury situation. They are without talented rookie running back Chris Carson and valuable edge rusher Cliff Avril for the season, while slot cornerback Jeremy Lane and starting left guard Luke Joeckel are out for an extended period of time. The Giants have plenty of injuries as well, particularly in the receiving corps, but they still have a strong defense and could keep this one close at home. The Seahawks are the pick for pick ‘em purposes, but this is a no confidence pick.

Seattle Seahawks 17 New York Giants 12

Pick against the spread: Seattle -4

Confidence: None

New York Giants at Denver Broncos: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-5) at Denver Broncos (3-1)

The Broncos were favored by 6 on the early line over the Giants last week, but the line has since moved to 11.5. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements like that as they tend to be an overreaction, but in this case it makes perfect sense, as the Giants as coming off of a week from hell. Not only did they lose at home 27-22 to the Chargers to drop to 0-5 (their 3rd loss by 5 points or fewer), but they also lost their top-3 wide receivers to injury. Sterling Shepard will be back in a week or two, but Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall are out for the season and all 3 are out for this game, leaving Roger Lewis as the Giants #1 wide receiver. Add in the absences of center Weston Richburg, cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and defensive end Olivier Vernon and this line is about right at 11.5.

With that in mind, I’m going to take the Broncos this week. Not only are the Giants incredibly banged up, but they’re also in a very tough spot, with a home game against the Seahawks on deck. The Giants are 7.5 point home underdogs on the early line and teams are 29-69 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 6 or more. On top of that, underdogs of 6 or more are 51-84 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more again the following week, since 2012. Combining those two trends, underdogs of 6 or more are just 10-28 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 6 or more. With two tough games in a row, it could be very tough for the Giants to compete in this one, so the Broncos are the smarter choice. There isn’t enough for me to bet on them though.

Denver Broncos 23 New York Giants 10

Pick against the spread: Denver -11.5

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Chargers (0-4) at New York Giants (0-4)

The Chargers are 0-4 on the season and are now 9-27 over the past 3 seasons, but they’ve been ridiculously unlucky. They are just 4-19 in games decided by a touchdown or less over that time period and a whopping 10 of their 27 losses have come by 3 points or fewer. That’s very relevant considering this line is 3.5 in favor of the hometown Giants. The Chargers are also unlucky to play in front of the home crowds that they play in front of, as they attract a disproportionately large amount of road fans to their games, a problem that has only gotten worse in Los Angeles. As a result, they have little to no homefield advantage. They’re just 5-14 ATS at home since 2015, but 11-6 ATS on the road.

They’re on the road here and frankly that might be a welcomed sight for this team at this point. At least you expect road crowds to cheer against you. At the very least, the Chargers won’t be nearly at as much of a disadvantage on the road as regular teams. They almost won in Denver earlier this year. The Giants are better than their 0-4 record too, but the Chargers are the better of these two teams and the Giants are also banged up, missing center Weston Richburg and possibly missing defensive ends Jason Pierre-Paul and Olivier Vernon. Those three are all key players and, even if JPP and Vernon play, they could be limited and have not been playing well so far this season. The Chargers have a good chance to win this straight up and, even if they don’t, I like their chances of keeping this within a field goal.

New York Giants 24 Los Angeles Chargers 23

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +3.5

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2017 Week 4 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-1)

The Buccaneers opened their season with a 29-7 win at home over the Bears week 2 (after their week 1 game was rescheduled because of Hurricane Irma), but then they had an equally big loss last week, losing 34-17 in Minnesota to a Vikings team led by starting quarterback Case Keenum. What happened? Well, turnover margin was a one huge difference, as they won the turnover battle by 3 in the opener, but then lost it by 3 last week. Turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so the Buccaneers probably aren’t as good as they looked in the opener and probably aren’t as bad as they looked last week.

The other huge difference between week 2 and week 3 for the Buccaneers was injuries, as the Buccaneers were without middle linebacker Kwon Alexander, defensive tackle Chris Baker, and cornerback Brent Grimes with injury, all above average starters on this defense. While they should bounce back turnover wise, the Buccaneers could be in even worse shape injury wise this week. Baker and Grimes are expected back, but Alexander remains out and will be joined by safety TJ Ward and outside linebacker Lavonte David. David is the biggest loss as he was playing as well as any linebacker in the league before going down.

They do face an 0-3 Giants team, but the Giants have faced a pretty tough schedule so far (Dallas, Detroit, and Philadelphia), so the banged up Buccaneers might be their easiest opponent so far this season. Despite the tough schedule and the 0-3 record, the Giants are -1.77% in first down rate differential, which isn’t terrible all things considered. Their offense has struggled like it did last season, but their defense has continued to play well, despite missing talented cornerback Janoris Jenkins week 2 and promising middle linebacker BJ Goodson in both week 2 and week 3. Both of those players will play this week for a Giants team that is in a much better injury situation than their opponents this week.

The Giants are also in a much better situation than the Buccaneers schedule wise, as they host the Chargers next week, while the Buccaneers have to turn around and host the Patriots on a short week on Thursday Night Football. Underdogs tend to cover before being favorites when their opponents will next be underdogs, going 100-64 ATS in that spot since 2012. On top of that, teams are just 45-100 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4.5 or more and Tampa Bay is currently +4.5 against New England on the early line.

The short week makes matters worse for the Buccaneers, as favorites are 58-88 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. With a tough game in 4 days, the Buccaneers might not be fully focused for the winless Giants, while the Giants should be fully focused with a relatively easy game on deck. I wish we were getting more line value, as the Buccaneers’ big loss in Minnesota moved this line from 6 on the early line last week to 3 this week, but the Giants are still worth a bet at 3. I have this line calculated at -1.5 given everyone the Buccaneers are missing and the Giants are in a great spot as well.

New York Giants 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +3

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles: 2017 Week 3 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (1-1)

Last week, when I looked at the early lines, Philadelphia -3 at home for the Giants was one of my favorites. The Eagles are legitimately one of the most talented teams in the entire league and have a great chance to win the NFC East, while the Giants are much more of a middling team, yet that line suggested these two teams were about equal. Needless to say, I am kicking myself for not locking that in last week because the Giants lost by 14 at home for the Lions on Monday Night Football and the line has subsequently jumped to 6.

We’re still getting some line value with the Eagles, who are still one of the better teams in the league, despite a loss in Kansas City last week (in a game in which the Eagles had 27 first downs to 16 for Kansas City). I have this line calculated at 7.5. However, we lost a ton of value with the line movement. The Giants were not as bad as the final score looked (24-10), as the Lions managed just 12 first downs and scored 10 points on a punt return and a 56-yard field goal, despite the fact that the Giants were without cornerback Janoris Jenkins and middle linebacker BJ Goodson.

Both Jenkins and Goodson are expected to be out again, but the Eagles are without cornerback Ronald Darby and could be without safety Rodney McLeod, which would be a big loss because backups Jaylen Watkins and Corey Graham are also out. Odell Beckham should also be closer to 100% this week, which will help this offense, and their running game could be better if Orleans Darkwa starts taking more carries away from Paul Perkins. The Eagles should still win this game by a touchdown or so, but they’re not worth betting on given how high this line is.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 New York Giants 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: Low

Detroit Lions at New York Giants: 2017 Week 2 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (1-0) at New York Giants (0-1)

Going into the season, I had the Lions as a 6-win team and high on my overrated list. They went 9-7 and made the postseason last year, but won just one game by more than a touchdown, finished 28th in first down rate, and didn’t defeat a single playoff team all season. Many of their games featured 4th quarter comebacks and they could have easily been 7-9 or 6-10 if a few plays had gone differently. In addition, they entered the season without talented left tackle Taylor Decker and starting defensive end Kerry Hyder, leaving them even thinner on both lines.

They opened the season with a 12-point victory at home over the Cardinals, but that was largely because the Cardinals suffered two significant injuries in the game and couldn’t adapt, losing left tackle DJ Humphries and stud feature back David Johnson. The Cardinals jumped out to an early 10-0 lead and led 17-9 in the 3rd quarter before the Lions went on a 26-6 run and even still Arizona won the first down battle 24-19. That game seems to have changed a lot of opinions on them as the line has shifted from 6 in favor of the hometown Giants on the early line last week to 3 this week. That’s the second biggest line movement of the week and it makes the Lions even more overrated.

I don’t love the Giants either, but they are the more talented of these two teams and we’re getting good line value with them after the 3-point line shift. This line suggests these two teams are even, which is not accurate. The Giants had a poor week 1 performance, but that was on the road against a tough Dallas team without top receiver Odell Beckham, who is expected to return against the Lions after getting in limited practices throughout the week. Beckham may not be 100% and the Giants have other offensive problems, but they have a stingy defense and should be able to take care of business against an inferior team at home.

New York Giants 23 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against the spread: NY Giants -3

Confidence: Medium

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys: 2017 Week 1 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-0) at Dallas Cowboys (0-0)

The Cowboys have had success in recent years and appear to have a strong squad again this season, especially with Ezekiel Elliott beating his NFL suspension (for now), but they haven’t had a lot of luck at home recently. They are just 29-29 straight up at home since 2010, with an average differential of 1.55 points per game. Contrast that with their road record of 30-26 over that time period, with an average differential of -0.25 points per game. Despite that, the oddsmakers usually don’t correct for that and the Cowboys are 20-37 ATS at home since 2010, including 12-29 ATS as favorite and 4-11 ATS as divisional favorites. Cowboys Stadium tends to attract a lot of road fans, which probably has a lot to do with that.

The Giants have had success in Dallas in recent years. In fact, Eli Manning is 7-6 straight up in Dallas in his 13-year career and 9-4 ATS. This year’s version of the Giants returns most of the core from last year’s playoff team and is good enough to keep this one close or possibly pull the upset as 4 point underdogs. The one concern is the doubt about Odell Beckham’s health. The Giants’ #1 receiver will travel with the team, an encouraging sign, but is officially a game time call for the Giants. It’s worth the risk for a small bet though if you can get 4.

Dallas Cowboys 26 New York Giants 24

Pick against the spread: NY Giants +4

Confidence: Medium