Giants

New York Giants: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#28)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Giants, Uncategorized

Last week: 26 (-2)

Record: 0-6

The Giants are making progress. They covered! But in all seriousness, they looked a lot better last week, moving the ball easily against, admittedly, a Chicago defense that is a shell of its former self thanks to injuries, age, and departed coaches. They still lost the turnover battle by 3, including a pick six that turned out to be the decisive play on the final score, but once they start being competitive in turnovers, they’ll be able to win some games and pull some “upsets.” They have a very good chance to break into the win column this week against the Vikings at home on Monday Night Football.

Week 6 Studs

LT William Beatty

RT Justin Pugh

Week 6 Duds

RG David Diehl

DT Shaun Rogers

SS Antrel Rolle

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New York Giants: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Giants, Uncategorized

Last week: 21 (-5)

Record: 0-5

Losing at home to the Eagles is pretty bad. They can’t block, run the football, or stop anyone (opponents are moving the chains against them 79% of the time). That being said, they have more talent than most 0-5 teams do. They are getting killed in turnovers. At -13 through 5 games, they are averaging -2.6 per game, a -42 pace, which would destroy the modern day record of -30. Even if they are destined to become the worst turnover margin team in NFL history (I don’t think they will be), they’ll be significantly better in this aspect going forward. Things will get better in this aspect going forward. Eli Manning won’t continue throwing interceptions at a rate nearly twice his career rate (5.9% on the season, 3.3% on his career). They also won’t continue recovering just 28.6% of fumbles. They could be underrated going forward.

Week 5 Studs

LG Kevin Boothe

DT Cullen Jenkins

DT Johnathan Hankins

DT Mike Patterson

Week 5 Duds

RG David Diehl

LE Mathias Kiwanuka

SS Antrel Rolle

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New York Giants at Chicago Bears: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Bears, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (0-5) at Chicago Bears (3-2)

Ordinarily, Chicago would be the easy choice in this situation. The home team also usually covers on Thursday Night Football, because, on a short week, you need all the time you can get to prepare and having to travel puts you at a disadvantage. The home team is especially advantaged when they are favored and in a non-divisional matchup.

It makes sense that a better team would be more prepared for a short week and the Bears are definitely the better team here. The fact that these are non-divisional opponents is relevant because that means they are relatively unfamiliar with each other. If they were divisional opponents, it would nullify Chicago’s advantage at home, but that’s not the case. Non-divisional home favorites are 29-12 ATS on Thursday Night since 1989, including 12-1 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or more.

However, the Giants are playing with nothing to lose here and have more talent than most 0-5 teams do. They have been killed by takeaways, with a -13 turnover margin. At this pace, they will be -42 in turnovers this season, which would destroy the modern day record of -30. Basically, the Giants can cut their turnover margin in half going forward (from -2.6 per game to -1.3 per game) and still approach being all-time bad in turnovers (that would put them at -27). Things will get better in this aspect going forward. Eli Manning won’t continue throwing interceptions at a rate nearly twice his career rate (5.9% on the season, 3.3% on his career). They also won’t continue recovering just 28.6% of fumbles.

The Giants have also historically been a better road team than home team, going 50-32 ATS on the road since 2004, the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. They are especially good as road dogs, going 32-19 ATS in that situation in the aforementioned time frame. This team has always thrived when overlooked and when nobody believes in them and I think that’s definitely the case this week. They’re especially good as road dogs early in the season, going 17-8 ATS as road dogs before week 10 since 2004. They are generally a better first half of the second team than second half of the season team (53-24 first 8 games, 30-42 second 8 games since 2004). Clearly that’s not the case this season, but it’s still worth noting.

The Giants also have a strong trend in their favor. Since 2008, teams are 57-26 as underdogs off of a loss as favorites before being favorites. The Giants lost to home to the Eagles as favorites last week and will host the lowly Vikings. Still, I can’t take the Giants here. I’ve been burned plenty of times with them this season and things are going to be worse on a short week on the road against a superior team. Turnovers aren’t the only problem with this team. They can’t block, run the football, or stop anyone (opponents are moving the chains against them 79% of the time). They’ll get better as the season goes on, but I like the Bears here. It’s not a strong play though.

Chicago Bears 27 New York Giants 17

Pick against spread: Chicago -8

Confidence: Low

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Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Eagles, Giants, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) at New York Giants (0-4)

The Giants have been outscored 69-7 in their last 2 games. That actually is a good thing for their chances this week. Teams are 36-18 ATS since 2002 off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more. That makes sense. Teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that situation. The Giants are definitely embarrassed at this point and they are probably undervalued, as mere 1 point favorites here against a poor Philadelphia team. However, they might not be overlooked by the Eagles in a huge divisional matchup. Dallas plays Denver this week and Washington is on a bye so the winner of this game will probably be, at most, a game back of the divisional lead.

Philadelphia also has a powerful trend on their side. Teams are 90-55 ATS as road dogs off of a road loss since 2008, a trend that covers at about a 65% rate historically, no matter what year you use to cut off your sample size. However, it’s not like they’re big dogs here (1 point) so I don’t know if it’s that powerful. Ultimately, these two trends might not have a ton of effect on the game.

That being said, the Giants should be the right side. I think this line is too low. The Giants are a better team than the Eagles, in my opinion. They’ve been destroyed by turnovers this year, with a -9 turnover margin, 3rd worst in the NFL. However, that type of thing tends to be inconsistent. Eli Manning has a career 3.3% interception rate. He won’t throw an interception on 6.0% of his attempts for the rest of the season. The Giants also won’t continue recovering 30.8% of fumbles on the ground all season.

The Giants’ offensive struggles go beyond turnovers this season, but they should be able to move the ball here because the Eagles have the type of defense that you can do whatever you want with. They’ve allowed 112 first downs and forced 11 punts all season. They’re allowing opponents to move the chains on 85% of opportunities. The Giants’ defense isn’t great either, allowing opponents to move the chains on 78% of opportunities, but I like the Giants in a must win game more than the Eagles and I think they’re the better team.

New York Giants 31 Philadelphia Eagles 27

Pick against spread: NY Giants -1

Confidence: Low

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Carolina Panthers trade OLB Jon Beason to the New York Giants

stevenlourie Giants, Panthers, Uncategorized

Trade for Panthers: There was a time when Jon Beason was one of the better middle linebackers in football and he was given a 5 year, 50 million dollar deal with 25 million guaranteed after the 2010 season, but he missed 28 of 32 games in 2011 and 2012 with injuries and, even at just 28 years old, those injuries have sapped his ability. Upon his return this season, he was moved to a two down outside linebacker role and had his base salary restricted down to just 1 million (with incentives up to 3.25 million). After struggling to start the season, he was benched and now he has been shipped to the Giants for a late round pick. Beason wasn’t serving any purpose for them. Credit them for getting something for him, even if it was just a late round pick

Grade: A

Trade for Giants: The Giants definitely need linebacker help and they aren’t completely out of it even at 0-4 because of their division and they can cut Beason penalty free after the season. However, this move probably won’t improve them at all.

Grade: C

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New York Giants: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#21)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Giants, Uncategorized

Last week: 18 (-3)

Record: 0-4

Like with the Steelers, the Giants have not won a game and are ranked ahead of teams that have won games. Again, if you want teams sorted by record, go to ESPN.com’s NFL Standings (or their NFL Power Rankings because they’re pretty much the same thing). Any talk of firing Tom Coughlin (or Mike Tomlin for that matter) is absurd. If the Giants had lost to the Cowboys week 17 in 2011 and missed the playoffs, rather than winning that 2nd Super Bowl, I kind of would have understands the calls for his job, but after he won that 2nd Super Bowl, he guaranteed himself job security for life. He’s signed to an expensive contract through 2014, which he signed after the 2nd Super Bowl season, and may retire at the end of next season, though he’s earned the right to continue coaching if he chooses to.

Week 4 Studs

DT Mike Patterson

CB Prince Amukamara

Week 4 Duds

RG James Brewer

TE Brandon Myers

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New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 4 NFL Picks, Chiefs, Giants, Uncategorized

New York Giants (0-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)

The Giants are an NFL worst -9 in turnovers, while the Chiefs are an NFL best +9 in turnovers. Therefore, the Chiefs should dominate the turnover battle and win this game right? Well, that’s not necessarily true. Turnover margin tends to be very inconsistent on a week to week (and year to year) basis. For example, teams who win the turnover battle by 4 one week, on average, have a turnover margin of +0.0 the following week. Teams who lose the turnover battle by 4 one week, same thing, an average of+0.0 the following week.

Alex Smith has yet to throw an interception on 105 attempts this year, but that’s not going to continue. He simply hasn’t really been tested and, as a result, hasn’t had to make a lot of high risk throws. He’s attempted just 18 of 105 passes more than 10 yards through the air and just 4 more than 20 yards through the air. He also hasn’t completed a single pass outside the hash marks longer than 10 yards downfield all season.

Eli Manning, meanwhile, has thrown an interception on 7.0% of his pass attempts, which also won’t continue. This is a guy who has thrown an interception on 3.3% of his 4571 career pass attempts. This stretch is just a fluke and a lot of the interceptions haven’t been his fault. The Giants are also unlikely to continue recovering just 22.2% of fumbles all season, while the Chiefs are also unlikely to recover just 85.7% of fumbles all season. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Giants won the turnover battle in this one. As a result, I feel the Giants are undervalued, while the Chiefs are overvalued.

The Giants are also in a good spot as road dogs coming off of a road loss, a situation teams are 89-54 ATS in since 2008. Teams recover in this situation about 65% of the time historically, regardless of what year you use to cut off your sample size. They’re also coming off of a blowout loss, losing 38-0 in Carolina last week. Teams are 43-22 ATS since 2002 off of a 35+ point loss. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in that situation. That’s very likely the case here. The Giants are 0-3 here and their season is pretty much over if they lose, while the Chiefs, who are 3-0, could overlook them.

The Giants have also historically been a better road team than home team, going 50-31 ATS on the road since 2004, the start of the Tom Coughlin/Eli Manning era. They are especially good as road dogs, going 32-18 ATS in that situation in the aforementioned time frame. This team has always thrived when overlooked and when nobody believes in them and I think that’s definitely the case this week. They’re especially good as road dogs early in the season, going 17-7 ATS as road dogs before week 10 since 2004.

They’re generally a better team in the first half of the season anyway. Since 2004, the same season as Eli Manning became the starter, the Giants are 53-22 in the first 8 games of the season and 30-42 in the second 8 games of the season. Clearly that hasn’t been the case here so far this season, but I think it’s still worth noting. The Giants starting a season 0-4 would be pretty ridiculous considering their history. It’s not my primary reason for taking them here, but it works well with everything else I’ve mentioned.

We’re not getting a ton of line value here, with the Chiefs only as 4.5 point favorites, but I think the odds makers are keeping the line intentionally low as a kind of trap line, and the majority of the action is on the Chiefs. That just reinforces my belief that the Giants are the right side and fortunately this line has passed the critical numbers of 3 and 4. That’s important because 29% of NFL games are decided by 4 points or less. That’s a pretty good cushion with the Giants in case they can’t win. As long as this line is 4.5 points or higher, it’s my Pick of the Week.

New York Giants 24 Kansas City Chiefs 17 Upset Pick +175

Pick against spread: NY Giants +4.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New York Giants: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Giants, Uncategorized

Last week: 16 (-3)

Like the Steelers, the Giants can’t be expected to lose the turnover battle by an average of -3 by game. That would be a -48 turnover margin that would blow the modern day record for a season out of the water. The Giants are probably too talented to even get close to the record. Eli Manning won’t continue throwing an interception on 7.0% of his passes and they won’t continue recovering just 22.2% of their fumbles. If there is any division in football you can win after starting 0-3, it’s the NFC East, but I don’t see that happening. 2nd place isn’t out of the question at all though, with the division having 3 combined wins.

Week 3 Studs

CB Aaron Ross

Week 3 Duds

RT Justin Pugh

RG Chris Snee

LOLB Jacquian Williams

ROLB Mark Herzlich

DT Shaun Rogers

LT William Beatty

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New York Giants at Carolina Panthers: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Giants, Panthers, Uncategorized

New York Giants (0-2) at Carolina Panthers (0-2)

The Panthers are now 2-14 since 2011 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Part of my reasoning for them having a big season was that their record in close games would even out, as it always does in the long run, but it’s very possible that won’t happen this year. They need to fire Ron Rivera. They should have done it last off-season (can you imagine how good they’d with be Chip Kelly, you know his #1 choice would have been working with Cam Newton?).

You can’t put the entire 2-14 record in close games on him, but he has to take the blame. Last week, the reason they lost on their final drive was because they only had 4 healthy defensive backs, but you could also blame Rivera for opting to kick a field goal to push the lead to 6 rather than trying to ice it on 4th and 1 late. Instead of putting his faith in his expensive running game or his great short yardage quarterback, he put his faith in a defense that literally didn’t have enough healthy bodies to be successful.

Also, because Rivera is a defensive Head Coach, the bulk of the offensive responsibilities have fallen on offensive coordinator Mike Shula, who is doing a terrible job in his first season in that position. That’s a big part of the reason why the Panthers have struggled to move the ball early on this season. Cam Newton did not pick up where he left off last season, completing 60.7% of his passes, but for just 5.8 YPA in this unnecessarily conservative offense, with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. He’s also taken off running just 9 times for 53 yards. Only 20 of Newton’s 61 pass attempts have gone more than 10 yards through the air and the new offensive system has to be blamed for that.

Fortunately, it’s not all bad news, as the defense has picked up where it left off, when it allowed 21.2 points per game in the final 12 games of last season. After holding the Seahawks to 12 in their opener, they held Buffalo to 17 last week, before that final drive, in which, of course, they didn’t have enough healthy defensive backs.

The Panthers will have enough healthy defensive backs this week, unless they have another rash of in game injuries, but they are literally using replacement level talent in the secondary throughout this week, with Charles Godfrey done for the season, Josh Norman and Quintin Mikell out for this one, and Josh Thomas also possibly out. Their secondary was not very talented to begin with, but this just makes things even worse. Their tremendous front 7 has been masking their putrid back 4 over the past 2 seasons and they could continue to do so this week, but they’ll have their work cut out for them.

If the Panthers bounce back offensively and hold it together defensively, they could play well enough that this won’t need to be a close game and there’s always the possibility that they finally are able to win a close one, but I don’t know how likely the best case scenario is for the Panthers this week. The Giants, meanwhile, come into this game 0-2 as well, largely because of a -8 turnover margin that is by far the league’s worst this season. Fortunately, this type of stuff is pretty inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that have a -4 turnover margin one week average about +0 the following week and the same thing for a team that previously had a +4 turnover margin.

They also tend to be a very good team on the road, going 47-33 SU and 50-30 ATS on the road since 2004, as opposed to 44-33 SU and 37-40 ATS at home in that same time period. They also usually start seasons well, so I find it hard to believe they’ll start this season 0-3. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, the same season as Eli Manning became the starter, the Giants are 53-19 in the first 8 games of the season and 30-42 in the second 8 games of the season.

I also like the Giants in a situation where they’re being doubted, though I’d like them better if they were dogs and facing an opponent that was publicly perceived as better than the Panthers. The public is also placing everything they have on the Giants. Combine that with the possibility that the Panthers actually break out this week and I’m nervous to bet either side. The Giants should be the right side, but I’m not confident.

New York Giants 23 Carolina Panthers 20

Pick against spread: NY Giants -1.5

Confidence: None

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New York Giants: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#16)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Giants, Uncategorized

Last week: 15

The Giants’ -8 turnover margin to start the season is probably more of a fluke than anything. That type of thing tends to be really inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that previously had a +4 turnover margin and teams that previous had a -4 turnover margin both average about +0 the following week. The Giants are not to be overlooked going forward. However, starting 0-2 in the NFC is basically a death sentence for their playoff hopes. They might be able to sneak in if the NFC East doesn’t produce a true playoff caliber team, but I believe Dallas is that kind of team.

Week 2 Studs

None

Week 2 Duds

WR Rueben Randle

RE Mathias Kiwanuka

CB Terrell Thomas

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