Quarterback

In the 2021 NFL Draft, the Jaguars got the #1 pick following a 1-15 season and it seemed like a good year to get that pick, as it gave them the opportunity to draft Trevor Lawrence, who was viewed as one of the best quarterback prospects in recent memory. So far, however, the results have not been what the Jaguars expected. Lawrence struggled mightily as a rookie, completing 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.05 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, as the Jaguars finished with the worst record in the NFL for the second straight year, this time at 3-14. 

Lawrence didn’t have a lot of help from the rest of this roster and the Jaguars had a completely overmatched coaching staff, led by Urban Meyer, who didn’t even make it through his first season in the NFL, so it was easy to give Lawrence a mulligan for that terrible performance. In his second season in the league, Lawrence took a big step forward and showed why he was such a highly regarded prospect, completing 66.3% of his passes for an average of 7.04 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions, while leading the Jaguars to 9 wins, a division title, and a playoff victory. He was especially good down the stretch, completing 69.7% of his passes for an average of 7.40 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions in his final 9 games.

In his third season in the league, Lawrence continued his strong play from the second half of 2022, completing 67.9% of his passes for an average of 7.53 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions in the first 12 games of the season. In total, Lawrence had a 21-game stretch across 2022 and 2023 where he completed 68.7% of his passes for an average of 7.47 YPA, 29 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions, while leading the Jaguars to a 15-6 record in the regular season. However, Lawrence suffered an injury down the stretch in 2023 and was not nearly the same while trying to play through it, leading to him losing his final 4 starts as the Jaguars fell completely out of the playoff race.

Still, there was reason for optimism going into 2024, given how well Lawrence had played over the course of more than a full season prior to his injury late in 2023. The Jaguars especially seemed optimistic about his 2024 campaign, wanting to get ahead of a potential career best year by giving him an extension prior to the season, rather than waiting for his value to go up. Lawrence still cost the Jaguars a 5-year, 275 million dollar deal, which makes him tied for the second highest paid quarterback in the league as of this writing, but it was reasonable to assume that if Lawrence bounced back from his injury that the cost of that extension after the season would be even higher.

However, Lawrence did not bounce back in 2024, completing 60.6% of his passes for an average of 7.20 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. The Jaguars’ defense also struggled mightily, leading to the Jaguars going just 2-8 in games started by Lawrence and just 4-13 overall. Injuries again affected his season, costing him seven games, but he was underwhelming even when on the field. Now going into his fifth season in the league, it’s still tough to know what to make of Lawrence. He is still only going into his age 26 season and has shown a pretty high ceiling, but he has also been inconsistent, injury prone, and, overall, his body of work through four seasons in the league has not been in line with a #1 overall pick who was given a huge extension after just three seasons in the league.

The Jaguars don’t have a reasonable opportunity to get out of Lawrence’s extension until after the 2028 season and, in fact, his extension is still a full year away from even starting, so they are tied to him for the foreseeable future. His cap hit as a percentage of the overall cap will stay below 10% for the next two seasons, but it is projected to be at 10.36% in 2027 and 12.65% in 2028, which means it will become increasingly difficult for the Jaguars to surround Lawrence with talent over the next few seasons. In fact, the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and won the Super Bowl are Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers, so the Jaguars will need Lawrence to elevate his game to a consistently high level for his contract to be worth it long-term.

To try to get the most out of Lawrence, the Jaguars fired head coach Doug Pederson this off-season after three seasons with the team and replaced him with former Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen. Coen is credited with getting a career best year out of another inconsistent former #1 overall pick Baker Mayfield last season, but Coen is still inexperienced overall, with one year of offensive play calling at the NFL level, and there have been plenty of offensive coordinators who have struggled to translate that success into a head coaching role. Coen hired Grant Udinski as his offensive coordinator and he comes from a successful coaching staff in Minnesota, but he too is inexperienced, with this being his first offensive coordinator job in the NFL. There is plenty of potential here with Lawrence under this new coaching staff, but it remains to be seen if they can make good on that potential.

Lawrence will be backed up by Nick Mullens, who comes with Udinski from Minnesota. In 20 career starts in eight seasons in the league, Mullens has completed 65.8% of his passes for an average of 7.99 YPA, which are both impressive numbers for backup quarterback, but he is also erratic with the ball, throwing 31 interceptions to 34 touchdowns, which is why he has never been looked at as a starting option, despite his ability to consistently pick up big gains through the air. Still, he’s overall a solid backup option. The Jaguars will just be hoping that Lawrence doesn’t suffer a significant injury for the third year in a row, causing them to have to turn to their backup again. 

Grade: B+

Receiving Corps

The Jaguars ended up with the 5th pick last season as a result of their terrible season, but that wasn’t high enough for the Jaguars to get the player they coveted at the top of the draft, as they traded away a package of picks, including the 5th pick, their second rounder this year, and their first rounder next year, to the Browns for the #2 pick, where they selected Colorado’s Travis Hunter. It’s a risky move, in large part because the Jaguars are not guaranteed to be good this year and could be giving the Browns a relatively high pick again next year, but the Jaguars view Hunter as a generational talent worth giving away multiple high picks for.

Hunter is certainly a unique prospect, showing the ability to play every down at a high level on both sides of the ball in college, at wide receiver and cornerback, and his ability to play on both sides of the ball is likely a large part of the reason why the Jaguars felt comfortable giving up so much for him, as they could view him as essentially multiple players. However, whether he is capable of doing what he did at the collegiate level at the NFL level remains to be seen. 

It will be a lot of work mentally to learn two positions at a high level in the NFL and physically it significantly increases his chances of injury long-term to have roles on both sides of the ball. Ultimately, it seems likely he will focus primarily on one side of the ball long-term, with a much smaller role on the other side of the ball, but he might not be good enough at either position to justify the Jaguars giving up that much draft capital to select him if he isn’t playing both sides of the ball at an effective level.

Given where the Jaguars need him the most, it seems likely Hunter will primarily be a wide receiver this season, with a smaller role as a cornerback on defense. The Jaguars overhauled their receiving corps this off-season, letting go of veterans Christian Kirk and Evan Engram, who were effective last season with yards per route run averages of 1.72 and 1.51 respectively, but who were limited to 8 games and 9 games respectively due to injury, as well as letting go of Gabe Davis, who struggled mightily with 0.95 yards per route run across 10 games.

Hunter will be part of replacing Kirk and Davis at wide receiver and the Jaguars also added Dyami Brown on a 1-year, 10 million dollar deal in free agency. Brown was a third round pick in 2021, but he has totaled just 59 catches for 784 yards and 4 touchdowns in his career, with just a 1.10 yards per route run average. He had an impressive run in the post-season for the Commanders last year, averaging 2.44 yards per route run over a 3-game span, and the Jaguars are hoping he has permanently turned a corner, still only going into his age 26 season, but that’s a very small sample size and Brown benefited significantly from having Jayden Daniels at quarterback. 

It seems unlikely Brown will develop into anything more than a decent #3 receiver in on his one-year deal with the Jaguars. The Jaguars also still have Parker Washington, who took on a big role down the stretch last season when Kirk and Davis were out, but he only averaged a 1.02 yards per route run average, which is actually up from the 0.75 yards per route run that the 2023 6th round pick averaged as a rookie, so he’s a very underwhelming option as well.

The constant in this wide receiver group is Brian Thomas, a 2024 first round pick who had a huge rookie season, with a 87/1282/10 slash line and 2.45 yards per route run. Thomas benefited from a high target total (133) and target share (25.5%) on a team with little in the way of other options, but he also faced frequent double teams as a result. This season could be a similar situation, given the state of the rest of this wide receiver group, with the difference being that Thomas is now another year more experienced and could get better quarterback play on a better offense if Trevor Lawrence stays healthy and plays up to his potential in this new offense.

To replace Evan Engram at tight end, they are giving a bigger role to Brenton Strange, who fared well as the primary tight end last season when Engram was out, finishing the season with a 40/411/2 slash line and 1.49 yards per route run, including a 29/275/2 slash line in eight games without Engram. Strange was a 2nd round pick in 2023, so he’s always had the upside to develop into an above average starting tight end, but he struggled mightily as a rookie with a 0.41 yards per route run average, and is still relatively inexperienced and unproven as a starting tight end, so, while he comes with a lot of upside, he also comes with a lot of downside.

The Jaguars signed Johnny Mundt and Hunter Long in free agency, but they only signed deals worth 5.5 million over 2 years and 5 million over 2 years respectively and are only backup options behind Strange. Mundt is an 8-year veteran, but barely played in his first five seasons in the league (10 total catches) and has finished below 60 on PFF in two of the past three seasons, while averaging 1.00 yards per route run over that stretch. Mundt is also now going into his age 31 season, so his best days are probably behind him, to the extent he ever had best days.

Long, meanwhile, is a 2021 3rd round pick who hasn’t really developed. He played more snaps last season than he had in his first three seasons in the league combined, but that was still a snap count of just 279, after 239 combined in his first three seasons, and he has just a 0.52 yards per route run average in his career. Both are underwhelming backup options. This receiving corps has talent, led by #1 receiver Brian Thomas and the upside of rookie Travis Hunter, but this is a top heavy group that could be underwhelming overall again. 

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The Jaguars also overhauled their offensive line this off-season. Center Mitch Morse retired ahead of what would have been his age 33 season, while right guard Brandon Scherff wasn’t retained ahead of his age 34 season. In their place, the Jaguars signed Robert Hainsey to replace Morse at center and Patrick Mekari to replace Scherff at right guard. Hainsey was signed to a 3-year, 21 million dollar deal and Mekari was signed to a 3-year, 37.5 million dollar deal, but it’s not a guarantee they will be a significant upgrade, even though Morse and Scherff had PFF grades of just 57.9 and 64.7 respectively. 

Hainsey, a 2021 3rd round pick, made 34 starts with the Buccaneers from 2022-2023, but he was underwhelming, with PFF grades of 66.7 and 52.8, and subsequently was replaced by a first round pick in Graham Barton last off-season. Hainsey showed some potential as a reserve last season, with a 73.3 PFF grade across 94 snaps, but that is no guarantee that his second stint as a starter goes better than his first stint. Mekari, meanwhile, has finished above 60 on PFF in all six seasons in the league, while making 53 starts, but he had his worst season last season with a 60.4 PFF grade, which coincided with a career high in starts at 17, after previously never making more than 12 starts in a season. Mekari has been at his best as a versatile super sub in the past and it’s unclear if he can be more than marginal as a full-time starter.

The rest of this offensive line is the same as it ended last season, but the Jaguars did make a big change at left tackle mid-season last year, trading away Cam Robinson so that Walker Little could take over for him. Little was a second round pick in 2021, but he had only made 17 career starts prior to week 7 of last season. Little had shown potential in limited action though, with PFF grades of 68.5, 61.1, and 58.8 in his first three seasons in the league, and then he broke out with a career best 72.8 PFF grade last season after becoming the full-time starter. By trading Robinson in the final year of his contract and extending Little on a 3-year, 40.5 million dollar deal, the Jaguars essentially chose the younger, less experienced Walker over Robinson and it appears they made the right decision. He’s still relatively inexperienced, but he could easily remain an above average starter, still only going into his age 26 season.

Ezra Cleveland and Anton Harrison remain at left guard and right tackle respectively. Cleveland, a 2020 2nd round pick, has made 69 starts in five seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in four of five seasons, maxing out at 73.5 in 2022 and finishing at 64.9 last season. He should remain at least a capable starter again in 2025. Harrison, meanwhile, was a first round pick in 2023 and struggled as a rookie with a 53.0 PFF grade across 17 starts, before taking a step forward with a 64.2 PFF grade across 16 starts. Still only going into his age 23 season, Harrison could have his best season yet in 2025.

The Jaguars’ starting five offensive line isn’t bad, but it isn’t particularly good either and their depth is a concern as well. Chuma Edoga was added in free agency to be the swing tackle and he’s been mostly mediocre through 23 starts in six seasons in the league. On the interior, the Jaguars used a 3rd round pick on guard Wyatt Milum and they have center Luke Fortner, a 2022 3rd round pick who made all 34 starts in his first two seasons in the league, but struggled mightily with PFF grades of 49.6 and 44.3 respectively, leading to him being replaced by Mitch Morse last off-season. Overall, this is an underwhelming offensive line.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

At running back, Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby split carries pretty evenly last season, with carry totals of 150 and 168 respectively. That was a big change from 2022 and 2023, when Etienne was the Jaguars’ clear lead back. It looked like that would remain the case in 2024, but Etienne declined in efficiency for the second year in a row, while Bigsby had a mini breakout year in his second season in the league, after struggling with a 2.64 YPC average on 50 carries as a 3rd round rookie in 2023.

Etienne, a 2021 first round pick, missed his whole rookie year with injury, but returned to rush for 1,125 yards and 5 touchdowns on 220 carries in 2022, averaging 5.11 YPC, with 3.10 YPC after contact, a carry success rate of 50.9%, and a missed tackle rate of 26.0%. In 2023, he fell to 3.78 YPC on 267 carries, with 2.87 YPC after contact, a carry success rate of 43.1%, and a missed tackle rate of 24.0% and then in 2024, he fell to 3.72 YPC, with 2.48 YPC after contact, a carry success rate of 45.3%, and a missed tackle rate of 11.3%. Bigsby, meanwhile, improved to a 4.56 YPC average last season, with 3.74 YPC after contact, a carry success rate of 49.4%, and a missed tackle rate of 27.4%.

The Jaguars seemed unsatisfied with their backfield options this off-season and may have taken the draft class’ top running back, Ashton Jeanty, at 5 if they had been unable to move up to take Travis Hunter. Instead, the Jaguars waited until the 4th round, when they took Bhayshul Tuten, who could have an immediate role as part of a three headed backfield. Etienne is probably locked into the primary passing down role, averaging a 44/349/0 slash line with 1.07 yards per route run over the past three seasons, while Bigsby has averaged just 0.36 yards per route run in his career, but Tuten does have some upside as a receiver as well and could play his way into some snaps on passing downs. Overall, this is an underwhelming backfield, but the Jaguars do have some options.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Jaguars’ defense was a big problem last season. Overall, they ranked 31st in yards per play allowed and 30th in first down rate allowed. They did have one obvious strength though, their edge defender duo of Josh Allen and Travon Walker combined for 18.5 of the teams’ 34 sacks (5th worst in the NFL). Walker led the team with 10.5 sacks, but Allen was the better of the two, as he added 9 hits and a 12.9% pressure rate to his 8 sacks, while also playing at a high level against the run, leading to a dominant 82.7 PFF grade. 

That was nothing new for Allen, who had PFF grades of 78.5, 82.9, and 89.5 in his previous three seasons, while combining for 40 sacks, 54 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate in 66 games over the past four seasons. Still only going into his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2025. Walker, meanwhile, only added 5 hits and a 10.1% pressure rate to his 10.5 sacks, finishing only slightly above average on PFF with a 68.2 grade. That was a career best PFF grade for Walker, who had grades of 60.3 and 53.9 in his first two seasons in the league, but the former #1 overall pick is still only going into his age 25 season and could have more untapped upside. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him have another career best year in 2025.

Behind Allen and Walker, the Jaguars had Arik Armstead, a hybrid player who split snaps between the edge and the interior. Armstead had a 68.7 PFF grade across 569 snaps, with 2 sacks, 5 hits, and a 9.5% pressure rate, which isn’t bad, but it is a decline from most of his career, as he has finished above 70 on PFF in seven of ten seasons in the league, while totaling 35.5 sacks, 52 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 133 career games. Armstead is now heading into his age 32 season, so his best days are probably behind him and he could easily continue declining in 2025. 

Behind Allen, Walker, and Armstead, the Jaguars’ options are limited. Yasir Abdullah had a 56.6 PFF grade across 170 snaps last season, after posting a 30.7 PFF grade across 45 snaps as a 5th round rookie in 2023. Myles Cole, a 2024 7th round pick, had a 34.0 PFF grade across 135 snaps as a rookie. The Jaguars added veteran Emmanuel Ogbah in free agency this off-season, but he is going into his age 32 season and has finished below 60 on PFF in three straight seasons, after being a solid player in his prime. This is a talented edge defender group, but it is a bit of a top heavy position group.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

The interior defender position was a big position of weakness last season, as only one of the Jaguars’ top five interior defenders in terms of snaps played finished above 60 on PFF. That one player, Jeremiah Ledbetter, who had a 63.0 PFF grade across 441 snaps, is no longer with the team and the Jaguars didn’t make any significant additions to this group this off-season, but there is at least some room for optimism at this position because the Jaguars have some young players with upside.

Probably the highest upside player of the group is Maason Smith, who only had a 43.7 PFF grade across 384 snaps last season, but the 2024 2nd round pick could easily take a big step forward in his second season in the league, though obviously that’s far from a guarantee and, even if he does, he has a long way to go towards being a solid starter. The Jaguars also took Jordan Jefferson in the 4th round of the 2024 NFL Draft and he showed some promise as a rookie with a 62.7 PFF grade, albeit on just 151 snaps. Tyler Lacy, a 2023 4th round pick, is also in the mix for a role, but he has PFF grades of 58.2 and 45.2 across snap counts of 145 and 340 respectively in his first two seasons in the league.

Veteran Davon Hamilton will also likely continue playing a role. He may have some upside, as he had a 74.9 PFF grade across 610 snaps in 2022 and is still only in his age 28 season, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in his other four seasons in the league, so it’s very possible that 2022 was a fluke and that he will continue struggling. Overall, this looks like a very underwhelming position group, but it at least has some upside.

Grade: C

Linebackers

The Jaguars did get some good play out of the linebacker position last season, led by a talented duo of Devin Lloyd and Foyesade Oluokun. Lloyd is a 2022 1st round pick who has posted PFF grades of 78.1 and 76.7 over the past two seasons respectively on snap counts of 966 and 884 respectively, after struggling with a 48.3 PFF grade across 925 snaps as a rookie. Lloyd is likely to continue being an above average every down linebacker going forward, seemingly having permanently turned a corner. Oluokun, meanwhile, has received PFF grades of 69.6, 75.2, and 68.5 across snap counts of 1,145, 1,110, and 815 over the past three seasons respectively since joining the Jaguars. He is now going into his age 30 season and could start declining soon, but there is a good chance he remains at least a solid starter for another season.

Depth is a bit of a concern behind the Jaguars’ top-2 linebackers though, which could be an issue if either Lloyd or Oluokon miss time with injury. Chad Muma was a third round pick in 2022 and has PFF grades of 54.9, 38.1, and 57.4 across 692 total snaps played in three seasons in the league. Ventrell Miller is a 2023 4th round pick who struggled with a 52.0 PFF grade across 482 snaps in the first action of his career last season. The Jaguars also added 4th and 6th round picks through this year’s draft, taking Jack Kiser and Jalen McLeod respectively. All of the options are likely to struggle if forced into a significant role by injuries in 2025, but the Jaguars will have a good linebacker duo if both options stay healthy.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Safety was a position of weakness for the Jaguars last season, as Andre Cisco (979 snaps), Darnell Savage (764 snaps), and Antonio Johnson (685 snaps) all played significant snap totals, but all struggled, with PFF grades of 58.8, 46.2, and 50.1 respectively. Cisco wasn’t retained this off-season, but the Jaguars didn’t do much to replace him, only signing Eric Murray in free agency and using a third round pick on Caleb Ransaw. They will compete with holdovers Antonio Johnson and Darnell Savage for starting jobs.

Murray had a decent 61.7 PFF grade across 857 snaps last season, but that was the first season in which he played more than 400 snaps and had a PFF grade higher than 60 since 2018, which was the only other time he has done that in nine seasons in the league. Now going into his age 31 season, it seems unlikely he will do that two years in a row, so he’s likely to be a liability if he ends up winning a starting job. 

Savage is a former first round pick who has finished above 60 on PFF in three of his six seasons in the league and he is only in his age 28 season, but those three seasons below 60 have come in the past four seasons, so it seems likely he will remain a liability if he wins the starting job again in 2025. Johnson, meanwhile, is a 2023 5th round pick who flashed potential with a 73.8 PFF grade across 172 snaps as a rookie, but who couldn’t translate that into a much larger role last season. Regardless of which two safeties end up as the starters, safety is likely to remain a position of liability in 2025.

The Jaguars weren’t as bad at cornerback last season, but they still spent to add ex-Cowboys cornerback Jourdan Lewis on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal that likely locks him into a starting role. Lewis had a 71.7 PFF grade across 871 snaps last season, but that was a higher season-long grade than any season in the five seasons prior, a stretch in which he finished below 60 three times. Lewis is now going into his age 30 season, so it seems unlikely he will be able to repeat last season’s performance.

Tyson Campbell and Jarrian Jones are likely locked into starting roles as well. Campbell looked like he was on his way to being one of the best cornerbacks in the league for years to come after a 2022 campaign in which the 2021 2nd round pick finished with a 82.1 PFF grade, following a 62.7 PFF grade across 864 snaps as a rookie. However, he has fallen to PFF grades of 61.5 and 62.9 respectively over the past two seasons. 

Campbell is still only going into his age 25 season though, so he still has plenty of upside and it’s likely that injuries have been part of the reason for his disappointing play over the past two seasons, as he has missed 11 games over those two seasons combined, while being limited in numerous others. He’s still a complete one-year wonder in terms of being the player he was in 2022, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if 2025 was at least the second best season of his career.

Jarrion Jones, meanwhile, is a 2024 3rd round pick who had an impressive rookie season in the slot, with a 69.0 PFF grade across 699 snaps. He should continue being a solid slot cornerback, with the upside to continue getting better. The Jaguars also still have Montaric Brown, who was decent with a 62.2 PFF grade across 855 snaps, but who will likely be a reserve this season with Jourdan Lewis being added. Brown is also a one-year wonder, as the 2022 7th round had PFF grades of 37.3 and 51.3 on snap counts of 63 and 475 respectively in his first two seasons in the league respectively. Travis Hunter will also have a role as a reserve as well. The Jaguars are much better at cornerback than safety, but have an underwhelming secondary overall.

Grade: B

Kicker

The Jaguars used a 6th round pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on a kicker in Cam Little and it proved to be a smart move, as he went 27 of 29 on field goals, including 13 of 15 on kicks of 40+ yards, as well as 27 of 27 on extra points. In terms of points above average, Little ranked 6th in the NFL with 8.54. It is only one year, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he ended up being one of the best kickers in the league for years to come. 

Grade: A

Conclusion

The Jaguars roster isn’t significantly improved compared to a year ago. They made some additions in free agency, but none of them look likely to move the needle. They are hoping that their rookie class and improved coaching on both sides of the ball can help them improve, which is likely true, but the Jaguars finished last season 27th in yards per play differential and 31st in first down rate differential, so they have a long way to go to even be an average team and it looks unlikely that will happen in 2025.

Prediction: 6-11, 3rd in AFC South

Quarterback

In the 2021 NFL Draft, the Jaguars got the #1 pick in a draft with Trevor Lawrence, one of the best quarterback prospects of the past couple decades and a consensus choice for the #1 selection. It’s arguable that no team needed that more than the Jaguars, who not only had the worst record in the league the previous season at 1-15, but who also had won more than six games just once in the eleven seasons prior, with an average win total of 4.4 over that stretch.

Through three seasons in the league, Lawrence’s numbers don’t look like what you’d expect out of someone who entered the league with as much promise as he did, as he’s completed 63.8% of his passes for an average of 6.73 YPA, 58 touchdowns, and 39 interceptions, good for a QB rating of 85.0 that is 33rd out of 41 eligible quarterbacks over the past three seasons, behind quarterbacks such as Gardner Minshew, Daniel Jones, and Taylor Heinicke. Because of that, some are even calling Lawrence a bust and saying that the Jaguars made a mistake selecting him. That doesn’t tell the whole story though.

Lawrence’s overall numbers are brought down by the fact that he struggled mightily as a rookie, completing 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.05 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions, but that was a terrible team with a terrible coaching staff. In the past two seasons, Lawrence has been significantly better. In year two, he completed 66.3% of his passes for an average of 7.04 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions (95.2 QB rating).

In year three, his production did take a step back, as did the Jaguars who missed the playoffs at 9-8 after making them and winning a playoff game the previous season. Lawrence completed 65.6% of his passes for an average of 7.12 YPA, 21 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions (88.5 QB rating) in 2023, but he played through multiple injuries down the stretch and was a lot better earlier in the season, completing 67.9% of his passes for an average of 7.53 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions while going 8-4 through 12 starts, before a late season collapse.

Between those first 12 games of last season before injuries got the best of him and his strong run in the second half of the 2022 season after things seemed to click for him, Lawrence completed 68.1% of his passes for an average of 7.39 YPA, 33 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions (97.3 QB rating) in a 23-game stretch, including playoffs, while going 16-7 and leading the Jaguars to the second round of the post-season. If you look at his overall production over three seasons in the league, it’s underwhelming, but if you look at how he played over the past year and a half before injuries got the best of him late last season, you can see the potential for a quarterback who is still only going into his age 25 season in 2024.

WIth Lawrence extension-eligible now three years into his career, the Jaguars will have a decision to make on his long-term future. Lawrence has two years left on his rookie deal and could theoretically be franchised tagged twice after that, but Lawrence’s salary would jump significantly on his 5th year option in 2025 and then even higher if he were to be franchise tagged, so either way he is about to get a lot more expensive. 

If the Jaguars wait to extend Lawrence, they risk his price getting higher if he bounces back from injury and continues to develop and his price will also go up as more quarterbacks sign big long-term deals. They also risk upsetting their franchise quarterback if they make him wait too long for long-term security. Even now, Lawrence’s long-term extension would probably exceed the 53 million annually the Lions gave to Jared Goff and it will almost definitely only get higher the longer they wait. The track record of non-elite quarterbacks being paid at the highest level is not good, with the only quarterbacks who have accounted for more than 11% of their team’s cap and won the Super Bowl being Hall of Famers or future Hall of Famers, but Lawrence still has the upside to develop into that kind of quarterback. 

With Lawrence about to get a lot more expensive, the Jaguars seem to be trying to take full advantage of their window with Lawrence as a cheap quarterback and have been aggressive adding talent on both sides of the ball in free agency, leading to them ranking 10th in total average annual value of their roster, despite Lawrence still being relatively cheap. Average annual value tends to correlate heavily with a team’s winning percentage, which is a good sign for the Jaguars’ chances of being successful in 2024, especially since they were 8-4 last season before Lawrence’s injuries got the best of him. 

Lawrence only missed one game with his injuries last season, which is the only game he’s missed in his career, but if he happens to miss more time with injury, the Jaguars added Mac Jones to be his backup this off-season. Jones was also a first round pick in the same 2021 NFL Draft as Lawrence, going 15th overall to the Patriots, and he actually seemed like the better quarterback in year one, completing 67.6% of his passes for an average of 7.30 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, but he has struggled mightily over the past two seasons, completing 65.1% of his passes for an average of 6.50 YPA, 24 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions, leading to him being benched numerous times and ultimately being traded from the Patriots to the Jaguars for a late round pick. 

Jones is still only in his age 26 season though and much of his struggles in the past two seasons can be blamed on the poor scheme and lack of talent around him, so he’s a worthwhile reclamation project for the Jaguars and probably one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league. He’ll technically have to compete for the backup job with incumbent CJ Beathard, who has a career 82.1 QB rating in 13 starts in 7 seasons in the league, but Jones should be considered the heavy favorite for the job. The Jaguars have good depth behind a talented young starting quarterback who was having a strong year and a half stretch before late season injuries in 2023. This is one of the better quarterback rooms in the league.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

The area the Jaguars have made the biggest investment in over the past few off-seasons is in the receiving corps. Two off-seasons ago, they signed wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to contracts worth 72 million over 4 years and 24 million over 3 years and tight end Evan Engram to a contract worth 9 million over 1 year. Last off-season, they franchise tagged and extended Evan Engram on a 3-year, 41.25 million dollar deal and traded for wide receiver Calvin Ridley and the final 1-year, 11.116 million left on his contract. This off-season, they let Ridley walk and released Zay Jones ahead of the final year and 7 million of his contract and then replaced them with free agent Gabe Davis on a 3-year, 39 million dollar deal and first round pick Brian Thomas. Kirk, Davis, and Thomas will be their top-3 wide receivers this season, while Engram will continue having a big role as a pass catching tight end.

Kirk will probably be the de facto #1 receiver, as he has been for the past two seasons. In his first season in Jacksonville in 2022, Kirk had a 84/1108/8 slash line with a 1.79 yards per route run average and last season he was on pace for a 81/1115/4 slash line with a 2.07 yards per route run average before missing the final five games of the season with injury. Kirk was considered by many to be a big overpay when the Jaguars signed him, but he had a 77/982/5 slash line with a 1.81 yards per route run average in his final season in Arizona and he was a former 2nd round pick going into only his age 26 season, so the Jaguars saw potential in him and credit them for being right, with Kirk continuing to develop since joining the Jaguars. Now his contract, which only makes him the 21st highest paid wide receiver in terms of average annual salary, seems very reasonable. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from Kirk in 2024.

With Kirk missing time with injury last season, Calvin Ridley led the team with a 76/1016/8 slash line, but he only averaged 1.57 yards per route run, so he won’t be too hard to replace, nor will Zay Jones, who averaged just 1.05 yards per route run average with just a 34/321/2 slash line in 9 games an injury plagued season. Gabe Davis is probably a slight downgrade from Ridley, with a 1.44 yards per route run average over the past three seasons in Buffalo with Josh Allen, but he’s only in his age 25 season, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward in 2024 and fill Ridley’s old role well. The rookie Brian Thomas, meanwhile, should be a significant upgrade over Jones so, in the aggregate, Davis and Thomas should be an upgrade on Ridley and Jones.

When the Jaguars originally signed Evan Engram, that signing was also questioned, as he had averaged just 1.36 yards per route run in five seasons with the Giants at that point in his career, with just a 0.89 yards per route run average in his final season before free agency, and he had missed 16 games with injury in those five seasons, while maxing out with a 64/722/6 slash line. However, Engram has taken a big step forward since joining a much better offense in Jacksonville, surpassing his career best slash line with the Giants in both seasons with the Jaguars, totaling a 73/766/4 slash line with a 1.46 yards per route run average in 2022, leading to the Jaguars franchise tagging him and giving him a big extension, and then totaling a 114/963/4 slash line with a 1.56 yards per route run average in 2023. Engram is now going into his age 30 season and could start to decline soon, but even if he isn’t quite as good as he’s been the past two seasons, he should at least be a solid receiving tight end.

Depth is a bit of concern for the Jaguars outside of their top-3 wide receivers and their top tight end. Parker Washington and Tim Jones saw expanded action last season when injuries kept Christian Kirk and Zay Jones out of action, but Washington, a 2023 6th round pick, averaged just 0.75 yards per route run, while Tim Jones, a 2021 undrafted free agent, averaged just 0.45 yards per route run, in line with the 0.51 yards per route run he averaged in the only other experience of his career in 2022. Both are young, but neither entered the league with much upside, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if neither even developed into capable backups. The Jaguars signed veteran Devin Duvarney in free agency, but he’s more of a return specialist than a wide receiver, averaging just 0.91 yards per route run with a career best slash line of 37/407/3 in four seasons in the league.

At tight end, the Jaguars used a 2nd round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on Brenton Strange, but he didn’t show much as a rookie, playing just 307 snaps, mostly as a blocker, and averaging just 0.41 yards per route run. Strange actually was the 3rd tight end for most of last season, consistently playing behind Luke Farrell (412 snaps). Farrell was also mostly a blocker, but also added 1.36 yards per route run as a pass catcher. A 5th round pick in 2021, Farrell has only averaged 1.09 yards per route run for his career and probably doesn’t have much upside beyond being a decent blocker. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Strange took a step forward in year two and took over the #2 tight end job. Even if the Jaguars’ depth is suspect, they still have a good top-4 pass catching targets with Kirk, Engram, Davis, and Thomas.

Grade: B+

Offensive Line

On the offensive line, the biggest addition the Jaguars have made in the past few off-seasons is right guard Brandon Scherff, who they signed to a 3-year, 49.5 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago. Scherff is still the 8th highest paid guard in the league even as other guards have gotten big extensions in the past couple off-seasons, so it was a big commitment for the Jaguars. It was understandable why they did it, as Scherff had finished above 70 on PFF in all seven seasons of his career prior joining the Jaguars, but he had also missed 27 games in the past five seasons and was heading into his age 31 season in his first season in Jacksonville, so it was a risky signing.

Scherff has managed to stay healthy since joining the Jaguars, playing all 17 games in both seasons, but he hasn’t been the same player, receiving grades of 59.0 and 67.3 from PFF, the two worst single season grades of his career. Now going into his age 33 season, his best days are almost definitely behind him and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him decline further. He still has a good chance to at least be a decent starter, but he’s still unlikely to live up to his big contract. 

Coming into last season, left guard and center were weaknesses for the Jaguars, but they addressed the left guard spot with a mid-season trade for Ezra Cleveland, who they then kept on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal as a free agent this off-season, and then they also added center Mitch Morse on a 2-year, 10.5 million dollar deal this off-season. Cleveland struggled in his first half season in Jacksonville, with a 46.0 PFF grade in five starts, but he had PFF grades of 66.2, 68.6, 73.5, and 73.8 in his first three and a half seasons in the league with the Vikings before being traded to Jacksonville, so he has some obvious bounce back potential, still only in his age 26 season, now going into his first full season with his new team.

Morse, meanwhile, has been a capable, if unspectacular starter for most of his career, finishing above 60 on PFF in all nine seasons in the league (126 starts), but only finishing above 70 twice, with the most recent instance coming all the way back in 2018. Morse is now going into his age 32 season and could start to decline, hence why he was relatively cheap in free agency, but it wouldn’t be hard for him to be a big upgrade on Luke Fortner, who struggled mightily with a 44.3 PFF grade in 17 starts last season. Fortner, a 2022 3rd round pick who also struggled with a 49.6 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie, will now be a backup, a role he’s better suited for, as will Tyler Shatley, a career backup (51 starts in 10 seasons in the league) in his age 33 season, who struggled with a 47.5 PFF grade in 6 starts at guard last season before Cleveland arrived.

At tackle, the Jaguars have left tackle Cam Robinson, a 2017 2nd round pick who is on a 3-year, 54 million dollar extension, and right tackle Anton Harrison, who was their first round choice in 2023. Robinson isn’t quite worth his salary, but he’s received grades in the 60s from PFF in each of the past four seasons, so he’s at least a capable starter. He missed eight games last season and was replaced by swing tackle Walker Little, a 2021 2nd round pick who was mediocre with a 58.8 PFF grade. 

Little was highly drafted, but has made just 17 nondescript starts in three seasons in the league and his presence didn’t prevent the Jaguars from selecting Harrison last year. Walker is at least a good reserve though and he has the versatility to play guard. Harrison, meanwhile, struggled with a 53.0 PFF grade in 17 starts as a rookie, but he entered the league very young and very raw, so he could easily take a step forward in year two, still only in his age 22 season. This offensive line isn’t as good as the Jaguars would like, given how much they’ve invested in this group in recent years, but they’re still at least a decent unit and they should be better than a year ago, with Cam Robinson likely healthier, Ezra Cleveland likely bouncing back from a down year, and Mitch Morse being added in free agency.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Along with Trevor Lawrence, the Jaguars drafted Lawrence’s college teammate, running back Travis Etienne, in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft. Etienne missed his entire rookie season with injury, but has developed into a feature back in the past two seasons. He was a lot more efficient in year two than year three, rushing for 1,125 yards and 5 touchdowns on 220 carries (5.11 YPC) in 2022, as opposed to 1,008 yards and 11 touchdowns on 267 carries (3.78 YPC) in 2023, but he actually finished with a better PFF grade in 2023 (77.0) than in 2022 (72.1), as his YPC after contact stayed about the same (3.08 in 2022, 2.87 in 2023), while his missed tackle rate increased and his receiving production went from 35/316/0 with 1.00 yards per route run in 2022 to 58/476/1 with 1.18 yards per route run in 2023. In 2024, he should have better run blocking and I would expect him to finish between his 2022 and 2023 averages in terms of YPC, while continuing to carry the load and play on all three downs.

The Jaguars used a 3rd round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft on running back Tank Bigsby to try to give Etienne more rest, but Etienne actually played more in 2023 than he did in 2022, as Bigsby struggled mightily as a rookie, averaging just 2.64 YPC on 50 carries. D’Ernest Johnson, the Jaguars’ other backup running back, also struggled with a 2.63 YPC on 41 carries. Bigsby has a good chance to take at least somewhat of a step forward in year two, but Etienne still figures to have a big role as the featured back. Johnson remains as well and his career 4.65 YPC average suggests he should be better in 2024 than 2023, although he only has 182 carries in 6 seasons in the league and wouldn’t be a candidate for a big workload even if Etienne got hurt. The Jaguars also used a 5th round pick in this year’s draft on Keilan Robinson and he could earn playing time if both Bisgby and Johnson struggle. The Jaguars’ depth is still questionable, but they at least have options with potential and Etienne is still an above average feature back.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

On defense, the Jaguars’ biggest off-season addition was Arik Armstead, who they brought over from the 49ers on a 3-year, 43.5 million dollar deal. Armstead is now going into his age 31 season and injuries have been a concern for much of Armstead’s career, as he’s missed 31 games in nine seasons in the league since going in the 1st round in 2015, including 13 games missed over the past two seasons, but he’s mostly played at a high level when healthy, totaling 33.5 sacks, 47 hits, and a 11.0% pressure rate in 116 career games as a pass rusher, while also playing the run well and having the versatility to play outside on the edge from time to time. 

In total, Armstead has finished above 70 on PFF in seven of nine seasons in the league, including 2023, when he had a 81.9 PFF grade with 5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 11.7% pressure rate in 12 games, despite his age. He could easily start declining this season and could also miss more time with injury, but even at less than his best and for less than 17 games, he should be an asset for this team and an upgrade over all of the Jaguars’ interior defenders last season, when Roy Robertson-Harris led the way with just a 62.3 PFF grade on 683 snaps. 

Robertson-Harris remains and should continue having a significant rotational role. Run defense is an issue for him and always has been, but he had 3.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate last season and has 17 sacks, 44 hits, and a 9.1% pressure rate in 100 career games in eight seasons in the league. Now going into his age 31 season, he could start to decline in 2024 and, even at his best, he’s never been more than an average starter, but he should still at least be a useful rotational pass rusher on the interior.

The Jaguars are also hoping for more out of DaVon Hamilton. A 2020 3rd round pick, Hamilton struggled on snap counts of 408 and 443 in his first two seasons in the league, before breaking out with a 74.9 PFF grade on 610 snaps in his third season in the league in 2022, earning a 3-year, 34.5 million dollar extension as a result, only to be limited to 190 snaps in 8 games and a 36.2 PFF grade in 2023 because of injuries that plagued him all season. Only in his age 27 season, Hamilton has obvious bounce back potential if he’s past the injuries that plagued him last season. It’s worth noting he’s only a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at in 2022, but even if he isn’t quite that good again in 2024, he should still give the Jaguars a lot more than he gave them in 2023.

The Jaguars also used 2nd and 4th round picks in this year’s draft on Maason Smith and Jordan Jefferson respectively. Smith should have a role based on where he was drafted, but Jefferson could have a hard time earning playing time in a suddenly deep position group. The Jaguars also bring back Adam Gotsis (427 snaps), Jeremiah Ledbetter (369 snaps), and Tyler Lacy (145 snaps) from last year’s group, with Folorunso Fatukasi (61.0 PFF grade on 415 snaps) being their only notable departure at the group this off-season. None of Gotsis, Ledbetter, and Lacy will be guaranteed a role though, in a much deeper position group than a year ago, highlighted by Armstead, Robertson-Harris, Hamilton, and the rookie Smith.

Gotsis is entering his 9th season in the league and has been an unspectacular rotational player throughout his career, receiving grades in the 50s and 60s from PFF on an average of 413 snaps per season in eight seasons in the league, including a 61.0 PFF grade on 427 snaps in 2023, but now heading into his age 32 season, it’s fair to question how much longer he can even keep that up and he shouldn’t be considered a lock for the final roster going into 2024. Lacy, meanwhile, was a 2023 4th round pick who showed little in a very limited role in a relatively thin position group as a rookie, while Ledbetter played 369 snaps out of necessity (after playing just 82 snaps in the previous five seasons combined) and predictably struggled with a 49.0 PFF grade. Lacy might stay on the roster on upside alone, but neither he nor Ledbetter are roster locks either, in a much better position group than a year ago, with Armstead being added in free agency, Smith being added early in the draft, and DaVon Hamilton likely being healthier.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Jaguars also spent heavily this off-season to keep top edge defender Josh Allen, franchise tagging him and then giving him a 5-year, 141.25 million dollar deal that makes him the 2nd highest paid edge defender in the league in terms of average annual salary. It’s hard to argue he doesn’t deserve it. The 7th overall pick in 2019, Allen has never been bad and he’s seen his PFF grade increase in every season in the league since being drafted, from 68.4 on 634 snaps as a rookie to 89.5 on 880 snaps in 2023. In the past three seasons, he has exceeded 78 on PFF in every season while totaling 32 sacks, 45 hits, and a 14.5% pressure rate in 50 games, including career highs with 17.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 17.5% pressure rate in 2023. Still only in his age 27 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024, even if he isn’t quite as good as he was in the best season of his career in 2023.

Opposite Josh Allen, Travon Walker also had impressive pass rush snaps with 10 sacks, 10 hits, and a 12.2% pressure rate, while playing 869 snaps, but he benefited significantly from Josh Allen drawing double teams opposite him and he struggled mightily against the run, missing a position leading 15 tackles, leading to Walker receiving just a 53.9 overall grade from PFF. Walker was the 1st overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and, even if that was a historically weak draft at the top, he still has a ton of upside, still only going into his age 24 season. He was also mediocre with a 60.3 PFF grade on 788 snaps as a rookie, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he took a big step forward in year three and, even if he doesn’t improve significantly, 2024 could still easily be the best season of his career.

Walker and Allen rarely came off the field in 2023 because of the Jaguars’ lack of depth at the position, with Dawaune Smoot (340 snaps) and K’Lavon Chaisson (283 snaps) struggling mightily in limited action with PFF grades of 42.4 and 54.7 respectively, and things should be similar this season. Smoot and Chaisson are gone and wouldn’t really be missed if not for the fact that the Jaguars didn’t really replace them. Their most notable addition was Trevis Gipson. Gipson was a 5th round pick by the Bears in 2020 and was a decent rotational edge rusher with them in 2021 and 2022, playing 489 and 641 snaps respectively and totaling 10 sacks, 11 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate. However, Gipson struggled mightily against the run, leading to him being cut by the Bears going into 2023 and then playing just 76 snaps in his lone season in Tennessee. 

Gipson will have the opportunity for more playing time in Jacksonville and could go back to being a useful rotational pass rusher, only in his age 27 season, but he should also continue struggling against the run and is overall an underwhelming top reserve. The Jaguars also used a 7th round pick in this year’s draft on Myles Cole, who could be forced into a significant reserve role as a rookie, a role in which he will almost definitely struggle. Cole will compete for the 4th edge defender position with 2023 5th round pick Yasir Abdullah, who showed very little promise on 45 snaps as a rookie and who would likely struggle even in a rotational role. Josh Allen is one of the best edge defenders in the league and Travon Walker at least has a lot of upside, but the Jaguars still lack depth at a very top-heavy position.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Things stay the same personnel wise for the Jaguars at linebacker, which is a good thing because Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd were one of the better linebacker duos in the league with PFF grades of 75.2 and 78.1 respectively. Both players had the best season of their careers, but Lloyd at least has a good chance to repeat his performance, as a 2022 1st round pick who is still only going into his third season in the league. Lloyd struggled with a 48.3 PFF grade on 925 snaps as a rookie, but he’s unlikely to regress back to rookie year form at this point and, even if he doesn’t match or exceed last season’s performance, he should at least remain an above average starter, with the upside for more.

Oluokun’s chances of repeating last season’s performance are not as good, as he had never exceeded a 69.6 PFF grade in five seasons in the league prior to last season, including two seasons below 60 on PFF in 2020 and 2021. Oluokun isn’t totally over the hill yet, going into his age 29 season, but odds are probably against him repeating his career best year. He’s always been at least a capable run stuffer and a tackle machine, but last season was the first season of his career where his coverage abilities matched his run defense and that might not continue in 2024.

The Jaguars rarely use more than two off ball linebackers on the field at once, so the Jaguars’ depth would only be a factor in case of injury. Chad Muma was the only other pure off ball linebacker to see action last season and 107 of the 146 snaps he played last season came in two games when Lloyd was out due. Muma was a 3rd round pick in 2022, but has mostly struggled on 432 career snaps, including a 38.1 PFF grade last season. 

Muma might still have some untapped upside and isn’t a bad backup option because of that, but he almost definitely would be a downgrade from Lloyd or Oluokun in case of injury. The Jaguars also have 2023 4th round pick Ventrell Miller, but he didn’t play a single defensive snap as a rookie and is a complete unknown at this point in his career. Lloyd and Oluokun should still remain a talented linebacker duo in 2024 even if they aren’t quite as good as they were a year ago and their linebacker depth at least has some upside, even if they are unproven.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Along with signing Arik Armstead, the Jaguars also signed safety Darnell Savage and cornerback Ronald Darby to contracts worth 21.75 million over 3 years and 8.5 million over 2 years respectively this off-season, but they are replacing Rayshawn Jenkins and Darious Williams respectively and it wouldn’t be a surprise if both were downgrades. Darby will almost definitely be a downgrade because Darious Williams excelled with a 79.5 PFF grade on 1,035 snaps last season and was the Jaguars’ best cornerback.

Darby has definitely had his moments, exceeding 60 on PFF in eight of nine seasons in the league, including five seasons over 70, but he’s also been incredibly injury prone, missing at least five games due to injury in five of the past seven seasons with 42 missed games total in his career. Now going into his age 30 season, his injury proneness is unlikely to change. He actually managed to play 16 games last season with the Ravens, but only played 442 snaps as a part-time cornerback and his 69.5 PFF grade was solid, but a far cry from what Darious Williams gave the Jaguars last season.

Savage has a better chance of adequately replacing Rayshawn Jenkins, who only had a 60.9 PFF grade across 1,099 snaps last season, but Savage has been inconsistent across his five seasons in the league. A first round pick in 2019 by the Packers, Savage showed his potential early in his career, with PFF grades of 67.1 and 75.3 respectively, but he fell to 58.5 and 47.5 in the next two seasons, leading to him getting benched late in the 2022 season. He got his starting job back for 2023 and was better with a 66.3 PFF grade, but missed seven games with injury and played just 558 snaps. He’s not as injury prone as Darby, but he’s missed time in four of five seasons in the league and has been inconsistent when on the field. He’s still only in his age 27 season and he has a lot of talent, but it’s tough to know what the Jaguars are going to get out of him.

The Jaguars also lost cornerback Tre Herndon this off-season, after he played well in limited action with a 70.8 PFF grade on 482 snaps last season, and they only replaced him with 3rd and 5th round picks Jarrian Jones and Deantre Prince, who both could easily struggle if forced into significant action in year one. The Jaguars also have Montaric Brown, a 2022 7th round pick who struggled mightily with a 51.3 PFF grade on 475 snaps in the first significant action of his career last season, mostly as an injury replacement. He’s unlikely to be the answer to replace Tre Herndon either. Their best option is probably Antonio Johnson, a 2023 5th round pick who flashed potential with a 73.8 grade on 172 snaps as a rookie, but he’s a projection to a larger role and could also be a downgrade from Herndon.

The Jaguars should at least get more out of Tyson Campbell, who was expected to be their top cornerback in 2023, but was limited to a 61.5 PFF grade on 589 snaps in 11 games due to injury. A second round pick in 2021, Campbell had a 62.7 PFF grade on 864 snaps as a rookie, before breaking out with a 82.1 PFF grade on 1,138 snaps in 2022. He’s a one-year wonder in terms of playing at the level he played at in 2022, but he’s still only going into his age 24 season, so, if he’s past his 2023 injuries, he could easily bounce back to his 2022 form, or at least close to it. Going into the final year of his rookie deal, the Jaguars might try to extend him before the season starts because his price would only go up if he bounced back this season.

The Jaguars might try to mask some of their lack of depth at cornerback by using three safeties more often in sub packages, with Darnell Savage having the versatility to play on the slot if needed. Andre Cisco returns as the other starter opposite free agent addition Darnell Savage. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Cisco flashed potential with a 67.9 PFF grade on 247 snaps as a rookie, before receiving 67.1 and 68.9 grades in 2022 and 2023 as a starter (30 starts). He should continue at least playing at that level in 2024 and, only in his age 24 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he had the best year of his career yet this year.

Andrew Wingard remains as the 3rd safety and, as far as 3rd safeties go, he’s one of the better ones in the league. He’s only been a starter once in his career, receiving a 69.0 PFF grade on 930 snaps (15 starts) in 2021, but he’s excelled in a reserve role the past two seasons with a PFF grades of 76.2 and 79.4 on snap counts of 217 and 330 respectively. Still only in his age 28 season, Wingard could be in for an expanded role in 2024 in a pretty thin secondary. Top cornerback Tyson Campbell has a high upside and bounce back potential coming off of an injury plagued season, but the rest of this group is average at best.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Jaguars were 8-4 last season before Trevor Lawrence got hurt and Lawrence was in the middle of an impressive stretch of about a season and a half or so. Assuming Lawrence can stay healthy this time around, the he and the Jaguars have a good chance to bounce back and their supporting cast on both sides of the ball is arguably better this year than it was last year when the Jaguars got off to that impressive start.

Update: The Jaguars should be better than a year ago, but the rest of the AFC is better too, so they could easily be on the outside looking in for a playoff spot.

Prediction: 9-8, 2nd in AFC South

Quarterback

Midway through the 2022 season, the Jaguars sat at just 2-6 and, at first glance, it seemed like more of the same for a team that had received back-to-back #1 overall picks following 1-15 and 3-14 finishes in the prior two seasons. However, the Jaguars played better than their record suggested to start the season, with all of their losses coming by 8 points or fewer and their two wins coming by a combined 52 points, giving them a +14 point differential and a DVOA that ranked 16th in the NFL, suggesting they would have significantly more success in the win/loss column going forward.

Sure enough, that’s exactly what happened for the Jaguars and then some, as they went 7-2 the rest of the way, winning their final five regular season games, to give them a final record of 9-8, good enough for first place in the AFC South. Part of it is the Jaguars started playing better, but their final DVOA rank, 13th, wasn’t much better than where they were when they were 2-6. The bigger difference is they started winning close games, going 4-0 in one-score games down the stretch after starting 0-6. 

It’s easy to say the Jaguars are a young team that has turned a corner and will continue winning games at the rate they did in the second half last season, but that’s unlikely for two reasons. One, that would likely require them continuing to win an unsustainably high percentage of their close games; just like their 0-6 record in one-score games to start last season was unlikely to continue, the same is true of their 4-0 record in one-score games down the stretch. Two, the Jaguars are unlikely to continue having as few injuries as they had last season, when they finished with the second fewest adjusted games lost to injury in the league. 

Working in the Jaguars favor, however, is the fact that young quarterback Trevor Lawrence legitimately did seem to turn a corner midway through last season. The #1 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, billed as a can’t miss prospect and one of the best prospects of the decade, Lawrence struggled mightily as a rookie, in part due to coaching, completing just 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.05 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. 

He was better to start the 2022 season, but his production was still mediocre, completing 62.5% of his passes for an average of 6.64 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions through the first 8 games of last season. However, over the final 9 games of the season, that jumped to 69.7% completion, 7.40 YPA, 17 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. That led to Lawrence finishing 13th among quarterbacks on PFF with a 77.4 grade, including a 90.3 grade from week 9 on, making him the 3rd highest ranked quarterback over that stretch. 

It’s a small sample size and Lawrence might not be quite that effective in 2023, but he has all the talent in the world and it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he continued playing like one of the better quarterbacks in the league for years to come. Even if he doesn’t play as well this season as he did down the stretch last season, he should still have a better season overall than a year ago because he’s unlikely to struggle again to begin the season.

The Jaguars also have a decent backup quarterback in CJ Beathard, who has completed 58.8% of his passes for an average of 6.94 YPA, 18 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions (80.3 QB rating) in 12 career starts in six seasons in the league. The Jaguars would obviously be in trouble if Beathard had to start for an extended period of time because he’s a clear downgrade from Lawrence, but he’s good enough that he can make a couple spot starts without the season getting away from the Jaguars.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

Another reason to be optimistic about the Jaguars in 2023, even if they don’t win games at the same rate as they did down the stretch last season, is the return of wide receiver Calvin Ridley from suspension. The Jaguars didn’t have a lot of financial flexibility this off-season after spending sprees during the previous two free agencies, but they didn’t have a lot of off-season losses either and they will get an obvious upgrade with Ridley returning to replace free agent departure Marvin Jones. While Jones averaged just 1.12 yards per route run and is more of a #3 receiver, Ridley has the potential to be a true #1 wide receiver for this team. 

Whether Ridley meets that potential or not remains to be seen though. Ridley is only in his age 29 season and the 90/1374/9 slash line he had in 2020 seems like a #1 receiver, but he did that in Atlanta opposite a true #1 wide receiver in Julio Jones, rarely if ever facing any double coverage as a result, and that remains the only 1000+ yard season of his career. Ridley got the chance to be the #1 in Jones’ absence in 2021, but was limited to a 31/281/2 slash line in five games before missing the rest of the season for personal reasons and he then missed all of 2022 with suspension, leading to the Falcons sending him to Jacksonville. 

Even if Ridley is not a true #1 wide receiver, he should still make a positive impact for the Jaguars and he won’t need to be a true #1, with the Jaguars also having Christian Kirk, who had a 84/1108/8 slash line as the #1 receiver a year ago. It was the first 1000+ yard year of Kirk’s career, but he came close with a 77/982/5 slash line in his final year in Arizona in 2021 and actually averaged more yards per route run (1.81) that season than he did in his first season in Jacksonville in 2022 (1.79).

Kirk also had a similar PFF grade in 2021 (72.7) as he did in 2022 (74.2) and he’s still in the prime of his career in his age 27 season, so could easily continue playing around the same level. He might not receive as many targets as he did last season (133) with Ridley in town, but he should be more efficient with Ridley taking some coverage away from him and Trevor Lawrence likely to play better overall this season than he did a year ago.

Ridley’s addition will likely affect Zay Jones the most negatively from a statistical perspective. Jones received almost as many targets a year ago as Kirk (121), but was not nearly as efficient with them, finishing with a 82/823/5 slash line and a 67.3 PFF grade, not a big surprise for a player whose career best slash line in 5 years in the league prior to last season was 56/652/7 and whose career best PFF grade is 70.2. 

Jones will be the clear third receiver in 2023 behind Ridley and Kirk and, as a result, is highly unlikely to have anywhere near the same target share, with the 81 targets that Marvin Jones had last season being a much more realistic estimate for Jones in 2023 than his 2022 total. He’s an above average third receiver in a talented position group and should be more efficient than he was a year ago in a smaller role, but he probably won’t see anywhere near the same level of total production as he had a year ago.

Tight end Evan Engram was also a big part of this passing game last season, posting a 73/766/4 slash line on 98 targets. Engram might not see as many targets in 2023 with Ridley being added, but, even if does, there’s a good chance he’s not as efficient or as productive as he was in 2022. Engram was a first round pick in 2017 and averaged a 69/740/4 slash line per 17 games in his first five seasons in the league with the Giants, but he missed 16 total games with injury, only playing every game once, and was not that efficient, averaging just 6.59 yards per target, as opposed to 7.82 in his first season in Jacksonville. 

Engram is only in his age 29 season and it’s possible he could keep that level of play up, but it’s more likely that he regresses or gets hurt again. The Jaguars also seem suspicious of his ability to keep up that level of play, franchise tagging him for 11.345 million in 2023, but declining to give him a top of the market long-term extension, at least as of this writing, and then using a second round pick on Penn State’s Brenton Strange as a potential long-term replacement, with Engram not signed in 2024 and beyond. 

Depth wasn’t really needed much in the Jaguars’ receiving corps last season with their top-3 wide receivers and their top-2 tight ends all playing at least 16 games, but depth will almost definitely be more important this season, as it’s unlikely the Jaguars’ receiving corps will have the same health as a year ago. Jamal Agnew and Tim Jones return as their top reserve wide receivers, after playing just 139 snaps and 145 snaps respectively last season, and one or both of them are likely to have to see more playing time than that in 2023. 

Jones is a 2021 undrafted free agent who showed very little in the first action of his career in 2022, averaging just 0.51 yards per route run, while Agnew is a career special teamer who has never played more than 260 snaps on offense in six seasons in the league, so both would be very underwhelming options if forced into extended action by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart, which is a strong possibility, given that it’s uncommon for a team’s top-3 wide receivers to all stay healthy for the entire season.

At tight end, Strange should be an upgrade in the passing game over blocking specialist Chris Manhertz (6 catches in 2022) as the #2 tight end and he will be a much better option than Manhertz would have been if he has to start in Engram’s absence, but Strange also might not be as good of a blocker in year one as Manhertz was either. It’s possible the Jaguars could use 2021 5th round pick Luke Farrell more as a blocking specialist, but he has played just 352 offensive snaps thus far in his career and would be a projection to a larger role, even as just a blocking specialist. The Jaguars have a very talented starting receiving corps, with Calvin Ridley returning from suspension to upgrade the one weak spot from a year ago, but depth is a concern in the likely scenario that the Jaguars have more injuries in this group than a year ago.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

While the Jaguars’ offensive personnel in general are similar to a year ago, the group that will be the most different is their offensive line. That’s especially true at the tackle position where incumbent right tackle Jawaan Taylor left in free agency and incumbent left tackle Cam Robinson is facing a significant suspension to start the season after a failed drug test. Taylor and Robinson finished with PFF grades of just 58.7 and 67.2 respectively last season though, so they won’t be too hard to replace, especially since the Jaguars have obvious replacement options.

One of those options is Walker Little, who has made just 6 starts in two seasons in the league, but who has flashed potential in limited action and who was originally drafted to be a starter long-term when he was a second round pick in 2021. He should be at least a capable starter in his first season in that role and he has the upside to be more than that, in which case he would likely be an upgrade over Robinson and Taylor. The Jaguars also used their first round pick on Oklahoma’s Anton Harrison. Harrison and Little will start at the beginning of the season with Robinson out and the better of the two will likely wind up at right tackle opposite Robinson when he returns.

There’s also a possibility that both players play too well in Robinson’s absence to be benched, in which case the Jaguars might opt to keep Robinson on the bench upon his return. Robinson is an experienced starter, starting all 75 games he has played since entering the league as a second round pick in 2017, and after some early career struggles, Robinson has had three straight seasons of PFF grades in the 60s, but he’s never had a PFF grade higher than 67.4 for a season and it wouldn’t be too hard for Harrison and/or Little to be an upgrade. Even if Robinson keeps his job upon his return, it’s very likely that this is his last season in Jacksonville, with a 17.75 million dollar non-guaranteed salary for 2024 and comparable in-house replacements who are much cheaper.

On the interior of this offensive line, the biggest difference is the Jaguars should get a healthier season out of left guard Ben Bartch, who was limited to just 293 snaps in 5 games last season. Bartch isn’t a great player or anything, but the 2020 4th round pick had a 62.1 PFF grade in 11 starts in 2021, after taking over as the starter in week 5, and then had a 60.5 PFF grade in 5 starts last season before getting hurt, so he should get his starting job back upon his return. Veteran Tyler Shatley wasn’t bad in Bartch’s absence last season and has been a solid interior reserve for them for years, but he’s going into his age 32 season in 2023, he has just 45 career starts in 9 seasons in the league, and his career best PFF grade was 67.7 in 10 starts in 2020, so he would be best back in a reserve role.

It’s also possible Shatley could push for the starting job at center, although the Jaguars would probably prefer second year player Luke Fortner keeps the job, even after he was PFF’s 40th ranked center out of 42 eligible last season with a 49.6 grade in 17 starts. He could be better in year two and, while he would have to improve drastically to even become a solid starter, if that doesn’t happen, the Jaguars do have Shatley as an option if they want to bench Fortner and turn to the more reliable veteran.

Brandon Scherff remains at right guard. He was a big free agent signing last off-season, coming over from Washington on a 3-year, 49.5 million dollar deal that makes him the 4th highest paid guard in the league in average annual salary. Scherff was one of the best guards in the league in his first seven seasons in the league with Washington, posting a 72.5 PFF grade in every season, but he came with some risk as a signing for a couple reasons. For one, he was getting up there in age, with 2022 being his age 31 season, and he had a pretty significant injury history, missing 24 games over his final five seasons in Washington combined.

Injuries proved not to be a concern for Scherff his first season in Jacksonville, as he played every game for the first time since his second season in the league in 2016. However, age did prove to be a concern as Scherff’s play dropped off dramatically, leading to him finishing with just a 59.0 PFF grade. Now going into his age 32 season, Scherff’s best days are almost definitely behind him and, even if he could be better in 2023 than he was in a career worst 2022 season, it’s also possible that he has permanently declined and could continue to struggle. He also still has durability concerns, given his history. Without any elite players, this offensive line is underwhelming, but they’re not a bad group either.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Travis Etienne returns as the feature back. He actually started last season behind James Robinson, who had 90 touches to Etienne’s 67 in the Jaguars’ first six games of the season last year, in part because Etienne was working back from an injury that cost him his entire rookie season in 2021. However, Etienne showed why he was a first round pick originally in those six games, averaging 5.57 YPC on 54 carries and adding 146 yards on 13 catches, leading to Robinson being benched and then traded to the Jets, which led to Etienne becoming the featured back for the rest of the season. 

Etienne wasn’t quite as efficient as he was when he was splitting carries, but he still had a 4.96 YPC on 166 carries and 22 catches for 170 yards in his final 11 games after Robinson got benched and traded and he finished the season with a 72.1 PFF grade. He might not see quite as much action per game in 2023 as he did down the stretch in 2022 though, as the Jaguars put an emphasis on improving their running back depth back behind Etienne this off-season, signing D’Ernest Johnson from the Browns and drafting Auburn’s Tank Bigsby in the 3rd round to give them other backup options besides JaMycal Hasty, who averaged 4.22 YPC on 46 carries as Etienne’s backup last season after Robinson’s departure and who has a 4.06 YPC average on 101 carries in three seasons in the league since going undrafted in 2020. 

D’Ernest Johnson isn’t that much more experienced than Hasty, buried on the depth chart in Cleveland behind probably the best running back duo in the league in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, but Johnson does have an impressive 5.23 YPC average on 141 carries in five seasons since going undrafted in 2018 and could easily see more playing time in Jacksonville than he did in Cleveland. Bigsby was a third round pick and could be a starting caliber player long-term, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Johnson beat him out for the #2 job. Etienne still figures to be the featured back, but he might not see quite as many touches per game as he did after he became the feature back last season (17.1 per game), with better reserves options behind him on the depth chart.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

While there were some changes on the Jaguars’ offense this off-season, mostly for the best, the Jaguars’ defense had remarkably little turnover from last year, bringing back all 10 players who played at least 500 snaps and 12 of 14 players who played at least 400 snaps. That might not be a good thing though as, unlike on offense where they finished 9th in DVOA, their defense finished 26th. On top of that, the Jaguars didn’t make any major additions to this group this off-season and they probably will have worse injury luck than a year ago, so they figure to be a below average group on this side of the ball again this season.

The two players the Jaguars did lose this off-season were reserve edge defenders Arden Key and Dawuane Smoot. They only played 475 snaps and 445 snaps respectively last season, but both played pretty well in a reserve role, earning grades of 81.3 and 70.3 respectively from PFF while combining for 9.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 12.9% pressure rate. The Jaguars also didn’t really do anything to replace them, aside from using a 5th round pick on Louisville’s Yasir Adbullah, so they will be relying on inexperienced young holdovers K’Lavon Chaisson and Jordan Smith, as well as Adbullah, as rotational reserve options. 

Chaisson is actually a former first round pick, but he’s never had a grade of 60 or higher on PFF in three seasons in the league and has seen declining snap counts in every season, from 569 as a rookie to 384 in 2021 and just 109 last season. Chaisson is still only 24 and could have untapped potential, but counting on him as your top reserve option is tough and it’s probably something the Jaguars are doing out of necessity rather than true faith in Chaisson, who they barely gave any playing time last season. He’s their top reserve by default over the rookie Abdullah and Jordan Smith, who has played just 21 snaps in two seasons in the league.

The Jaguars do still have starters Josh Allen and Travon Walker, a pair of former first round picks in their own right. Allen was the 7th pick in 2019 and has so far lived up to the billing, breaking out with a 78.5 PFF grade in his third season in the league in 2021, after middling seasons to begin his career, and then he followed them up with an even better season in 2022, ranking 14th among edge defenders on PFF with a 82.9 grade on 895 snaps and totaling 7 sacks, 17 hits, and a 14.1% pressure rate on the season. Allen has always been a good pass rusher, with 27.5 sacks, 49 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate in 57 career games, and his run defense has improved significantly throughout his career, allowing him to become one of the more complete players in the league at his position. Only going into his age 26 season, he should continue his high level of play for several seasons.

Travon Walker, meanwhile, was the first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. That draft was considered one of the weakest in recent memory at the top and Walker was considered a project entering the league, but his rookie year still had to be somewhat disappointing. He played 788 snaps as close to an every down starter, but he managed just 3.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 8.6% pressure rate, while earning just a 60.3 grade from PFF. He still has a sky high upside though and could easily take a big step forward in year two. The Jaguars will need that to compensate for their lack of depth. If Walker does not improve significantly, Josh Allen is the only reliable outside pass rusher the Jaguars have.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

At the interior defender position, the Jaguars top-4 players in terms of snaps played last season were Roy Robertson-Harris (714 snaps), Davon Hamilton (610 snaps), Folorunso Fatukasi (446 snaps), and Adam Gotsis (293 snaps) and all four return for this season and should play similar roles. Hamilton was the best of the bunch, finishing with a 74.9 grade on PFF, a breakout season for the 2020 3rd round pick, who had previously received PFF grades of just 53.9 and 52.8 on 408 snaps and 443 snaps in his first two seasons in the league respectively. Hamilton is a one-year wonder who could regress a little this season, but he’s only in his early prime in his age 26 season and could easily remain an above average starter in 2023 and beyond. Originally going into the final year of his rookie contract this season, the Jaguars extended him on a 3-year, 34.5 million dollar deal this off-season.

Robertson-Harris also got an extension this off-season, re-signing for 21.6 million over 3 years ahead of what would have been the final year of his contract as well. He wasn’t as good as Hamilton last season, but he’s a good value on that contract. He’s always been a good pass rusher, with a 9.1% pressure rate for his career, but he’s gotten better as a run defender as well, allowing him to play an every down role like he did in 2023, when he played a career high in snaps and held up with an overall 63.9 PFF grade. Robertson-Harris is still better as a pass rusher than a run stopper, with 3 sacks, 8 hits, and a 8.2% pressure rate last season, but he’s a capable overall player and should remain that in 2023, even if he’s starting to get up there in age in his age 30 season.

Adam Gotsis was also solid with a 65.6 PFF grade last season, albeit in very limited action. He’s an experienced 7-year veteran who has been middling on an average of 411 snaps per season in his career, but now he’s heading into his age 31 season and he could easily become an increasingly less reliable reserve option. The Jaguars won’t need much from him this season barring injuries ahead of him on the depth chart, but he could still prove to be a liability. He could also be pushed for his role by 4th round rookie Tyler Lacy, who figures to start the season as a deep reserve, but who could earn playing time as the year goes on. 

The only one of this group who truly struggled last season was Fatukasi, who was a big disappointment in the first year of a 3-year, 30 million dollar contract that he signed to come over from the Jets last off-season, posting a 44.5 PFF grade in his first season in Jacksonville, good for 123rd out of 142 eligible interior defenders. Fatukasi was a dominant run stuffer early in his career, with PFF grades of 87.6 and 86.2 against the run in 2019 and 2020 respectively as a part-time player (390 snaps and 507 snaps), but that fell to 57.3 in his final season in New York in 2021 (558 snaps) and then fell even further to 41.4 in 2022. 

The big 6-4 318 pounder has never been much of a pass rusher with a career 5.5% pressure rate, so the sudden drop off of his run stopping abilities is a significant concern. Fatukasi probably won’t be as bad in 2023 as he was in 2022, but now two years removed from his last above average season, it’s possible he won’t regain his old form, even though he’s theoretically in his prime in his age 28 season. He’ll have to bounce back in a pretty big way to justify remaining on the roster in 2024, owed a non-guaranteed 8 million. He’s part of a decent, but underwhelming position group on the interior.

Grade: B-

Linebackers

The Jaguars overhauled their linebacking corps last off-season, using a first round pick on Devin Lloyd and signing ex-Falcon Foyesade Oluokun to a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal that makes him the 6th highest paid off ball linebacker in the league. Neither player really lived up to the resources the team committed to them in year one though. Lloyd was a solid run defender, but led all linebackers with 722 receiving yards allowed in coverage and finished with an overall 48.3 grade from PFF, due to his struggles in coverage. Lloyd has the potential to be a lot better in year two, but that’s not a guarantee.

Oluokun, on the other hand, wasn’t bad last season, playing 1,145 snaps (all but 18) and receiving a 69.6 PFF grade, 31st among off ball linebackers, but it’s hard to say he was worth how much the Jaguars paid to sign him. That contract came as a big surprise as Oluokun had never been more than a solid linebacker in four seasons in Atlanta, making 41 starts and averaging 720 snaps per season, but never finishing above 65.7 in PFF grade, meaning last season was actually a career best PFF for Oluokun. Oluokun is in the prime of his career in his age 28 season and could easily remain a slightly above average every down linebacker in 2023, but I don’t expect him to ever live up to his contract.

The Jaguars also added Chad Muma in the third round of last year’s draft and he played 286 middling snaps behind Oluokun and Lloyd. He’s expected to play the same role in 2023 and he’s a solid backup option to have, as he has the upside to be a starter long-term and could potentially fill in capably as an every down player if there’s an injury ahead of him on the depth chart. Oluokun is a solid every down player and Muma and Lloyd both have potential, even if they haven’t shown themselves to be reliable every down options yet, but, overall, this is a middling at best linebacking corps.

Grade: B-

Secondary

The one major injury the Jaguars had on defense last season was losing starting cornerback Shaq Griffin for the season after 336 snaps in 5 games. Griffin was let go this off-season to save 13.5 million and the Jaguars didn’t really replace him, which is surprising, as his replacement Tre Herndon struggled in his absence with a 55.4 PFF grade on 416 snaps and is their only realistic candidate to replace him. Herndon hasn’t been any better in the past either, as his mediocre PFF grade last season was actually a career best. He’ll almost definitely be no worse than their 3rd cornerback this season, with their only other options for the job being veteran journeyman Tevaughn Campbell, who is going into his age 30 season with a career best PFF grade for a season of 56.9, 2020 7th round pick Chris Claybrooks, who has struggled on 621 career snaps, and 6th round rookie Christian Braswell. 

Tyson Campbell and Darious Williams remain locked in as the starting every down cornerbacks in base packages, with the former being one of the best players in the league at his position. A second round pick in 2021, Campbell struggled to begin his career, with a 52.8 PFF grade through 8 games, but that improved to 72.3 from week 12 on and he continued improving into his second season in the league, finishing as PFF’s 5th ranked cornerback with a 82.1 grade. Campbell is inexperienced and a one-year wonder, but he’s still only going into his age 23 season and has the upside to develop into one of the consistently best players in the league at his position for years to come.

Darious Williams, meanwhile, was a free agent acquisition last off-season, coming over from the Rams on a 3-year, 30 million dollar deal. Williams has been a starter for three seasons dating back to his time with the Rams (35 starts), but he hasn’t been able to repeat the level of play he reached in 2020, when he received a 80.0 PFF grade on 824 snaps, following up that season with PFF grades of 65.3 and 61.4 over the past two seasons on snap counts of 924 and 944 respectively. Now going into his age 30 season with only one above average season on his resume, it’s unlikely he’ll ever bounce back to that level of play, but he has a good chance to remain at least a capable starter in 2023, even if he is starting to get up there in age.

Starting safeties Rayshawn Jenkins and Andre Cisco both remain as well. Jenkins signed with the Jaguars on a 4-year, 35 contract two off-season ago and has started 31 games for the Jaguars in two seasons since, but he’s struggled overall with PFF grades of 56.9 and 57.3, failing to live up to the level he played at in his final two seasons with the Chargers, when he had PFF grades of 63.1 and 68.9 while starting another 31 games. The Jaguars restructured Jenkins contract this off-season, freeing up cap space, but making it more difficult to cut him long-term, so they clearly still believe in him and he’s still only going into his age 29 season, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he struggled again in 2023.

Cisco was the better of the two safeties, with a 67.1 PFF grade in 15 starts. A third round pick in 2021, Cisco flashed potential on 247 snaps as a rookie, so it wasn’t really a surprise he continued his solid play in a larger role. Still only in his age 23 season, Cisco could easily still have further untapped potential and, even if he doesn’t take a step forward in year three, I would expect him to continue being at least a solid starter. The Jaguars also have a good reserve safety in veteran Andrew Wingard, who has made 22 starts of his own over the past three seasons, with PFF grades of 68.8, 69.0, and 79.9 respectively, making him a very valuable backup option to have. Overall, this is a solid secondary, but Tre Herndon figures to be a liability as the #3 cornerback and Rayshawn Jenkins could continue struggling as a starting safety.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Jaguars are a young team who won 7 of their last 9 games last season to surprisingly finish in first place in their division and this season they’ll get talented receiver Calvin Ridley back from suspension, so some have high expectations for this team in 2023. However, there are reasons to expect them to not keep winning games at the rate in which they won games down the stretch last season. For one, while they were never as bad as their 2-6 record suggested, with a 0-6 record in one-score games and a +14 point differential during that stretch, they were also never as good as their 7-2 record suggested, with a +40 point differential and a 4-0 record in one-score games during that stretch. On top of that, the Jaguars are highly unlikely to be as healthy as they were a year ago, when they finished with the second fewest adjusted games lost to injury.

I would still expect the Jaguars to be better overall in 2023 than they were in 2022, with several young players legitimately seeming to turn a corner down the stretch last season, most notably quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who looks like one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the league and now has a new wide receiver to throw to. However, I would pump the brakes on this team doing anything more than winning their underwhelming division, as I still think they’re a little short of being a true Super Bowl contender. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 9-8, 1st in AFC South