Jaguars

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 12 NFL Picks, Chargers, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (2-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6)

The Chargers’ 2-8 record is tied for the worst in the NFL, but they have played better than their record. Their defense has been horrendous, ranking 29th in rate of moving the chains allowed, but their offense ranks 5th, as quarterback Philip Rivers has played very well this season, despite a lot of issues around him on offense. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, they rank 16th, hardly great, but certainly significantly better than any other team that has 2 or 3 wins.

Their record is largely the result of a 2-5 record in games decided by a touchdown (2-6 in games decided by 8 points or fewer), a -7 turnover margin, a -4 return touchdown margin, a -7.8 yards per kickoff return margin, and a -5.2 net punt margin. On the season, they’ve actually outgained their opponents. None of those things suggests anything deeply wrong with this team, but rather that they have the framework of a decent team and just need to clean some things up. They’ve won the rate of moving the chains battle in 6 of 10 games and could easily be 4-6, 5-5, or even 6-4. This team reminds me a lot of the 2012 Lions, who went 4-12 that season, but then 7-9 the following year and 11-5 two years later, with essentially the same framework of the team.

The Chargers are also healthier now than they were before their bye week a couple weeks ago. Tight end Antonio Gates, tight end Lardarius Green, safety Eric Weddle, guard Orlando Franklin, wide receiver Malcom Floyd, defensive end Corey Liuget, middle linebacker Manti Te’o, and middle linebacker Denzel Perryman have all missed significant time with injury this season, but are healthy for this one. They’re not at full strength, missing left tackle King Dunlap, right guard DJ Fluker, and wide receiver Keenan Allen, but few teams are at full strength at this point in the season.

Of course, none of this did them any good last week, when they got demolished at home by a surging Chiefs team, but the Jaguars are hardly the Chiefs, ranking 30th in rate of moving the chains differential. They too are healthier than they have been, as left tackle Luke Joeckel, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and tight end Julius Thomas have all returned from early season injuries. They’ve been noticeably better since the first 3 weeks of the season, as they had a rate of moving the chains differential of -10.95% in their first 3 games, as opposed to -3.31% in their last 7 games. With outside linebacker Dan Skuta, right guard Brandon Linder, and defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks all injured, they’re not at full strength, but, again, few teams are by week 12. That being said, I still think the Chargers are the better team.

I think it also helps the Chargers to get away from San Diego, as weird as that sounds. The Chargers seem to have no fans in San Diego so their stadium has been overrun with visiting fans pretty much every game this year, so they essentially have to play 16 road games this season. I feel bad for the few Chargers fan who do show up because they’re going to lose their team, but the Chargers have a borderline obligation to move up to Los Angeles if this continues. It’s not fair to the team to not have any true home games and it also really hurts their chances of signing key free agents. On the road this year, they’ve nearly beaten Green Bay and Cincinnati so they could easily go into Jacksonville and win straight up.

Given that, getting 4.5 points with them is really nice. Close to 3 in 10 games are decided by 4 points or fewer, and, even if the Chargers play poorly again, there’s plenty of room for a backdoor cover. This line was a field goal a week ago and I love fading significant week-to-week line movements whenever they make sense because they tend to be overreactions to a single week of play, in this case, San Diego getting demolished by an underrated Chiefs team for easily their biggest loss of the season.

Given that the Chargers are the better team and have had some success on the road this season,  I actually think this line should be around a pick ‘em, so we’re getting a lot of good line value with the Chargers, as this line has cleared the key numbers of 3 and 4. The only reason this isn’t a higher confidence pick is because the Chargers host the Broncos next week, a game in which they are expected to be 6 point home underdogs, and teams are 41-86 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point home underdogs. It can be hard to concentrate with such a huge home game on deck, but, at 2-8, on a 6 game losing streak, with barely a snowball’s chance in hell of making the playoffs, the Chargers can’t afford to not be completely focused for this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars 31 San Diego Chargers 30

Pick against the spread: San Diego +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 11 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Titans, Uncategorized

Tennessee Titans (2-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6)

Things seem to be looking up for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who won their 3rd game of the season last week, on a last second field goal in Baltimore. Though just 3-6, Jacksonville is only a game out of first place in the AFC South, behind an Indianapolis team that just lost its starting quarterback for a month. The Jaguars also are favored and have a better record than their opponent this week, at home against the 2-7 Titans. This is just their 4th game since the start of the 2012 season in which they’ve been favored (1-2 ATS) and their 2nd game over that time period in which they’ve had a better record than their opponent. Not only are they field goal favorites, after a 2 point line movement between this week and last week, significant considering close to 1 in 6 games is decided by a field goal, the Jaguars also have the backing of the public, at least to some extent. This is unprecedented for this team in recent memory.

The Jaguars have definitely been better over the past few weeks than they have been in recent years. In their past 6 games, they have a rate of moving the chains differential of-2.88%, which would rank 24th in the NFL on the season, significantly better than their overall rank on the season of 29th (-5.48%). What happened? Well, they got a lot healthier. Early in the season, they were missing tight end Julius Thomas, left tackle Luke Joeckel, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and right guard Brandon Linder. They got all of those players back, except Linder who is out for the season. This is a rare instance of a team that has gotten healthier as the season has gone on, though they lost Marks for the season last week, which hurts.

The Titans have had some pretty key injuries this season, including, most importantly, a two game absence by talented rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota, in which they scored a combined 13 points. In their other 7 games, they move the chains at a 72.32% rate. It hurts that top receiver Kendall Wright is out, but they should have success moving the chains against a weak Jacksonville defense. The Titans are also missing starting cornerbacks Perrish Cox and Jason McCourty. The defense has struggled without them this season, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 73.36% rate on the season, and very rarely have both been off the field at the same time. Still, they’re the better team and I like getting field goal protection. There’s not enough here for me to be too confident though.

Tennessee Titans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Low

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Ravens, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Baltimore Ravens (2-6)

The Jaguars rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential at -5.84%. However, they’ve been a lot better since the first 3 weeks of the season. In their past 5 games, they have a differential of -2.92%. What happened? Well, they got a lot healthier. Early in the season, they were missing tight end Julius Thomas, left tackle Luke Joeckel, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and right guard Brandon Linder. Since then, all of those players, except Linder who is out for the season, have returned. This is a rare instance of a team that has gotten healthier as the season has gone on, as only Linder and possibly linebacker Dan Skuta, are out. That has shown itself on the field.

The Jaguars certainly aren’t a good team, but neither are the Ravens. They ranked 3rd in rate of moving the chains differential in 2014, but this year’s version of this team is a far cry from last year’s version. They lost wide receiver Torrey Smith, outside linebacker Pernell McPhee, and nose tackle Haloti Ngata this off-season. Breshad Perriman, Smith’s replacement, has yet to play this season, while fellow starting wide receiver Steve Smith and outside linebacker Terrell Suggs are out for the season with torn Achilles. They also lost offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak this off-season, which has really hurt their offensive line and running game. As a result, they rank 27th in rate of moving the chains differential at -4.13%. They shouldn’t be favored by 5.5 points here over the Jaguars.

The Ravens are also in a terrible spot. While the Jaguars host the Titans next week, a game in which the Jaguars are expected to be favored, the Ravens host the Rams, who are expected to be road favorites in Baltimore. Favorites are 96-166 ATS before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites since 2008. The Ravens are only 1.5 home underdogs in the early line, so it’s possible they end up being home favorites, but, either way, the logic holds. The Ravens have an upcoming distraction, while the Jaguars don’t.

It also helps that the Jaguars are in their 2nd straight road game. Teams are 122-87 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 100-59 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation.  This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 211-214 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.46 points per game, as opposed to 296-419 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.99 points per game. This could easily be a Baltimore field goal win or a Jacksonville win. The Jaguars, as 5.5 point underdogs, are my Pick of the Week.

Baltimore Ravens 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 23

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +5.5

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 9 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Jets, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) at New York Jets (4-3)

The Jets were 4-1 and coming off of a 34-20 victory over the Redskins a few weeks ago, but they’ve taken a serious hit since then, losing 2 straight. It’s not as bad as it sounds though, as both losses came on the road against solid or better opponents in New England and Oakland. Their 14 point loss in Oakland last week wasn’t good, but, remember, they were leading the Patriots in the 4th quarter the previous week, before ultimately losing by a touchdown.

Besides, last week’s loss probably would have been a lot closer if Ryan Fitzpatrick hadn’t gotten knocked out early. Fitzpatrick has been solid this season, completing 61.9% of his passes for an average of 7.06 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions. He’s not the best quarterback in the world or anything, but he’s significantly better than Geno Smith, who struggled in his absence last week. Fitzpatrick returns this week, though he’s definitely not at 100%, with torn ligaments in his non-throwing thumb that require surgery eventually. It probably won’t affect his throwing ability, but it’s unclear how he’ll play and if it’ll cause him to be fumble prone or mess up hand offs. We don’t even know if he’ll be able to make it through the whole game or if he’ll get knocked out again.

If Fitzpatrick were healthy, I’d put money on the Jets here as 8 point home favorites over the Jaguars. Despite the Jets’ last two weeks, they still rank 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Jaguars rank 29th, so we’re definitely getting line value with the Jets. I still think the Jets are the right side though and should win by double digits, though they do have two other things working against them. For one, the Jets are also missing safety Calvin Pryor, while the Jaguars are close to 100%, after having a bunch of early season injuries. Two, the Jets have to turn around and play the Bills on Thursday Night Football next week. Favorites are 42-67 ATS before a Thursday night game since 2008. The Jets are still the pick though.

New York Jets 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -8

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars in London: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bills, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) in London

The Bills lost at home 34-21 to the Bengals last week and are in a mess of a situation injury wise, missing quarterback Tyrod Taylor, running back Karlos Williams, wide receiver Sammy Watkins, wide receiver Percy Harvin, and defensive tackle Kyle Williams. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are arguably as healthy as they’ve been all season. While they have lost right guard Brandon Linder to injury for the season, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, safety John Cyprien, middle linebacker Paul Posluszny, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, left guard Luke Joeckel, and tight end Julius Thomas have all missed time with injury thus far this season and will all play this week.

However, the Bills could still easily bounce back and cover as 4.5 point favorites here. This is technically a Jacksonville home game, but it’s in London, so it’s a neutral site game. The better team typically covers in London, going 8-4 ATS all-time, including 8-2 ATS in their last 10. It’s a small sample size, but it makes sense. Teams must hate travelling to London to play a game, but if you’re actually in contention it makes it easier to get up for this game. It doesn’t help Jacksonville’s morale that they have to give up a home game for this. Favorites also tend to be more organized teams capable of playing this type of game.

The Bills aren’t very good, ranking 22nd in rate of moving the chains differential and in a rough injury situation, but the Jaguars are even worse, even though they have improved health, as they rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential. The Bills are 3-3 and still in the AFC playoff race so they should be able to get up for this game and beat the Jaguars by at least 5. I’m not confident at all though, as long as the line is higher than 3. Hopefully it falls before the game, but I’m not banking on it.

Buffalo Bills 17 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -4.5

Confidence: None

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Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 6 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Texans, Uncategorized

Houston Texans (1-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4)

Both of these two teams are 1-4, but the Texans are the better of the two teams. They have just one loss by more than a touchdown and rank 18th in rate of moving the chains differential, while the Jaguars rank 30th. Despite that, the Jaguars are favored by 2 points, suggesting these teams are close to even. I disagree with that and I don’t think the Jaguars should be favored by 2 points over anyone other than a few awful teams (San Francisco and Tampa Bay come to mind).

The Jaguars also have to go to London next week to take on the Bills. Teams are just 6-16 ATS all-time before an international game. It’s a small sample size, but the trend makes a ton of sense. The Texans have to go to Miami next week, but that’s not that bad. The only reason I’m not putting money on the Texans is injuries, as they’ll be without talented outside linebacker Jadeveon Clowney with injury. The Jaguars, meanwhile, are getting healthy. While they have lost right guard Brandon Linder to injury and while they could be without running back TJ Yeldon in this one, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, safety John Cyprien, middle linebacker Paul Posluszny, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, left guard Luke Joeckel, and tight end Julius Thomas have all missed time with injury thus far this season and will all play this week. It’s not enough for me to be too worried about the Jaguars winning, but enough to stay away from making a higher confidence pick.

Houston Texans 16 Jacksonville Jaguars 13 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Houston +2

Confidence: Low

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3)

The Buccaneers are going into a bye here, but that’s not a good thing, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Big home favorites (6+) typically do very well before a bye (59-19 ATS since 2002), but, for whatever reason, small home favorites like the Buccaneers are here do not. Teams who are favored by 1-5.5 points at home going into the bye are just 36-60 ATS over that aforementioned time period. Perhaps it’s that they get caught looking forward. The Buccaneers are one of the worst teams in the league and are already 3 games back of two teams for the division lead (one of who just destroyed them in Tampa Bay) so they might have spent a little bit too much time planning their bye week vacation this week, instead of 100% focusing on their upcoming game.

The Buccaneers have also been awful at home in recent years, again, as counterintuitive as that might seem. Since 2009, they are 14-36 at home, getting outscored by an average of 6.36 points per game, as opposed to 17-33 on the road, getting outscored by an average of 6.12 points per game. On top of that, the Buccaneers are just 15-34 ATS at home over that time period and have already gotten destroyed at home by the Titans and Panthers by 28 and 14 points respectively this season. They also haven’t won at home since week 14 of 2013. For whatever reason, the Buccaneers don’t seem to have any real homefield advantage. As small home favorites before a bye, I don’t expect that to change this week.

The Buccaneers are also just awful in general, as I mentioned earlier. After finishing last season 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, the Buccaneers are dead last right now. The Buccaneers thought they improved themselves this off-season, adding guys like Jameis Winston, Henry Melton, and Bruce Carter, but Winston has struggled mightily as a rookie, Carter has already lost his starting job, and injuries have wreaked havoc on this team, as they are missing cornerback Johnthan Banks, center Evan Smith, tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, and possibly left guard Logan Mankins with injuries for this one. Meanwhile, top defensive player Gerald McCoy is at less than 100% with a shoulder problem.

The Jaguars aren’t very good either, ranking 30th in rate of moving the chains differential, but they’ve played better than Tampa Bay and they’re getting healthier in a hurry after being plagued with injuries to start the season. Left tackle Luke Joeckel, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and safety John Cyprien all returned last week, after missing week 2 and week 3 with injury, while tight end Julius Thomas and defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks are expected to make their season debuts this week. It’s not all good on the injury front, as right guard Brandon Linder, their best offensive lineman in 2015, was placed on injured reserve this week, while middle linebacker Paul Posluszny is on the doubtful side of questionable, after not practicing all week, but they’re still the better team here, while this line suggests they’re even. That’s, of course, before you even take into account the Buccaneers’ recent home struggles and the fact that they’re small home favorites before a bye.

The Jaguars are also in a good spot, as road underdogs in their 3rd of 3 road games, off of back-to-back losses. Teams are 20-14 ATS in that spot since 1989, including 19-9 ATS off of back-to-back losses as road underdogs. It’s a small sample size, but road underdogs in their 2nd of 2 road games off of a road loss are 96-58 ATS since 2008, so it makes sense. I like the Jaguars’ chances to win straight up here and I’m pretty confident in them as 3 point underdogs.

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +3

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 4 NFL Picks, Colts, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) at Indianapolis Colts (1-2)

This line has finally been posted as Andrew Luck has been ruled out and the Colts are 3.5 point favorites here at home for Jacksonville. For anyone who took Jacksonville earlier this week when they were +8 (like me) congratulations and if you took Indianapolis -8…well you shouldn’t have done that. I thought the Jaguars were the right side at +8 even with Luck playing. With Luck out, I still think the Jaguars are the right side, because they’re still in a good spot and the line should have shifted more than 4.5 points for Luck’s injury (Jacksonville is now +3.5).

Even though Jacksonville is banged up too, missing right guard Brandon Linder, defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks, and tight end Julius Thomas (though left tackle Luke Joeckel and cornerback Dwayne Gratz will return this week), I think these two teams are about even without Luck. Indianapolis’ supporting cast around Luck, for the most part, is weak, as they don’t have a very good offensive line, running game, or defense, especially against the run, while new starting quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is 40 years old and hasn’t made a start since 2012.

Also, as I mentioned, the Jaguars are also in a great spot, as they have been all week. While we can’t use the road underdogs off of a road loss trend because this is the Jaguars 2nd of 3 road games instead of their 2nd of 2 (they go to Tampa Bay next week), teams do tend to bounce back off of blowout losses like the one the Jaguars had in New England last week, losing by the final score of 51-17. Teams are 58-38 ATS since 2002 off of a loss by 34+ points, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed after a loss like that.

On top of that, the Colts have to play again in 4 days against the Texans in Houston (likely part of why they kept Luck out). Teams are 41-63 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a Thursday night game. The Colts are currently mere 1 point favorites in Houston and, if they perform badly here this week, they could be underdogs, which would open up another bad trend for the Colts. Teams are 21-56 ATS as divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. It’s one of the most powerful trends out there that makes any sense. Finally, teams are 4-17 ATS during week 4 as favorites after winning their first game of the season in week 3, the previous week. The Colts are just in a horrible spot here, especially with the oldest quarterback in the league making his first start in 3 years for them. I put money on Jacksonville +8 earlier this week and definitely I’d still be willing to do it now at +3.5 with Luck ruled out.

The Colts typically play really well against the division and at home, going 15-4 ATS in the division since 2012 (when Luck and head coach Chuck Pagano first arrived), 18-8 ATS at home over that time, and 7-2 ATS at home against the division over that time period. They also have played well against weaker opponents during that time period, going 18-4 ATS against sub .500 teams in week 4 or later. However, it’s hard to trust any of those trends without Luck. I have a good amount of confidence that Jacksonville is the right side this week and would even put money on the money line.

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 Indianapolis Colts 16 Upset Pick +155

Pick against the spread: Jacksonville +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 3 NFL Picks, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Patriots, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) at New England Patriots (2-0)

Jacksonville beat the Dolphins last week in Jacksonville, but I’m still having a very tough time believing they’re not one of the worst teams in the league, especially with left tackle Luke Joeckel, right guard Brandon Linder, tight end Julius Thomas, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and defensive end Andre Branch all out with injury. The Linder one is new and he was arguably their best healthy player. The public isn’t buying the Jaguars either, heavily backing the Patriots here as two touchdown favorites at home. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense and the Patriots have had trouble covering big lines like this at home in recent years, going 5-12 ATS as double digit home favorites since 2009, but I actually do agree with the public that this is going to be an easy New England victory.

In addition to the sheer difference in talent level between a bottom dwelling, injured Jacksonville team and a New England team that won the Super Bowl last year and has arguably been the best team in football through 2 games, the Patriots are also in a great spot as huge home favorites before a bye. Teams are 48-16 ATS since 2002 as home favorites of more than a touchdown before a bye and it makes sense that the vastly superior team would be able to cover at a high rate with a week of rest on deck, allowing them to be completely focused. The Patriots, as you can imagine, have been in this spot a fair amount of times over the years, going 8-3 ATS since 2002.

Jacksonville is in a good spot playing their first road game of the season week 3. Those teams tend to be better rested than their opponent and it shows, as they are 40-27 ATS in that spot since 1989. They’re also in a bad spot though, with another tough game in Indianapolis on deck. Underdogs of 7 points or more are 78-99 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs of 7 points or more. New England should be the right side here, but I can’t quite bring myself to put money on such a big line.

New England Patriots 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 16 Survivor Pick

Pick against the spread: New England -14

Confidence: Low

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Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2015 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 2 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jaguars, NFL Picks, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)

I had the Dolphins as one of the best teams in the league going into the season. They were arguably the best non-playoff team in the league last season, finishing 10th in rate of moving the chains differential. Now they’re improved on the offensive line, improved in the receiving corps, and their defense is better thanks to the massive addition of Ndamukong Suh. They still have some issues at guard, cornerback, and safety, but I think they could be a top-5 team. They didn’t look like one in their first game of the season in Washington, in a 17-10 win that was much tougher than it should have been, but it’s possible they weren’t completely focused for the lowly Redskins and got caught in a much tougher road game than they expected as a result.

The Redskins will be big road favorites here again this week, as they go to Jacksonville. Jacksonville, much the opposite of the Dolphins, is one of the worst teams in the NFL. Already one of the least talented teams coming into the season, the Jaguars are banged up right now and expected to be without 4 starters/key contributors in this one, tight end Julius Thomas, safety John Cyprien, cornerback Dwayne Gratz, and defensive tackle Sen’Derrick Marks. They very much deserve to be 6.5 point home underdogs here.

The Jaguars also have a very tough game on deck, as they head to New England next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are 50-89 ATS since 2010 before being underdogs of 10 points or more. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you have a very tough game coming up that serves as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. I think it’s both in this situation. They’ll have to avoid sleepwalking again like they did last week, but I’m taking the Dolphins as long as this line is under a touchdown with good confidence.

Miami Dolphins 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against the spread: Miami -6.5

Confidence: Medium

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