Jaguars

Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Arizona Cardinals (5-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8)

I maintained all along that the Jaguars were going to win a game at some point. It’s very, very hard to go 0 for a season. Winless teams are 24-5 ATS in week 9 or later since 1989 so I’m not surprised at all that Jacksonville was able to go into Tennessee and beat a distracted Titans team. That shouldn’t change what anyone thinks about this team. They’re still one of the worst teams of the decade and easily the worst team in the NFL this season.

Their point differential is -176. No one else is worse than -78 (Houston, NY Giants). Football Outsiders has them at -62.3% in terms of DVOA. No one else is worse than -35.9% (Oakland). In terms of rate of moving the chains, they move the chains at a 64% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents. No one else has a differential worse than -8%. Arizona isn’t a fantastic team or anything, but they’re at least average. They move the chains at a 71% rate, as opposed to 72% for their opponents, a differential that is 18th. In terms of DVOA, they are 12th. 9 points might seem like a lot to be giving with the Cardinals on the road, but it’s pretty reasonable.

Now that the Jaguars have a win, they won’t catch teams off guard as easily and they can get back to what they were doing for the vast majority of the season, which was losing to anyone and everyone by 10 points or more. They’re also in a bad spot after last week’s win. Since 1989, teams are 46-67 ATS off of a win as double digit underdogs, including 17-28 ATS off of a win by 3 or fewer points. I’m not confident in the Cardinals because I hate laying more than a touchdown on the road with anyone (7.5+ road favorites are 5-17 ATS since 2011), but if I had to pick a side, I’d take Arizona.

Arizona Cardinals 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 9

Pick against spread: Arizona -9

Confidence: None

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Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 1-8

As I said, the Jaguars were going to win a game at some point. It’s very, very hard to go 0-16. That win doesn’t change my opinion on the team. They’re still a very, very bad football team who was able to take advantage of a distracted Tennessee team, who was looking forward to Indianapolis on Thursday Night. The Titans weren’t getting up for the Jaguars in that situation and when they lost their quarterback and the turnover battle (4 to 2, including 3 fumbles to 1), it just made it worse. This is still the worst team in the NFL, moving the chains at a 64% rate, as opposed to 80% for their opponents, and now that they have a win, teams might not take them as lightly.

Week 10 Studs

TE Marcedes Lewis

ROLB Geno Hayes

CB Dwayne Gratz

Week 10 Duds

QB Chad Henne

RT Austin Pasztor

RG Uche Nwaneri

C Brad Meester

TE Clay Harbor

MLB Paul Posluszny

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Titans, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-8) at Tennessee Titans (4-4)

The Jaguars are not very good. That’s obvious. However, everyone covers at some point. There’s a time, place, and a line where you can take any team. I think this is it for the Jaguars, as 11.5 point underdogs. There’s actually some value in betting on winless teams after a certain point. Winless teams are 23-5 ATS as road dogs since 1989 in week 9 or later. Teams tend to be embarrassed, overlooked, and possibly underrated at that situation. The Buccaneers were winless last week when they marched into Seattle and took them to overtime as 15 point underdogs before eventually losing by a field goal. The Titans aren’t as good as the Seahawks and they’re favored by almost as much here. That should tell you something.

The Titans could especially be overlooking them because they host the Colts in 4 days on Thursday Night Football. Favorites are 27-48 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008, including 11-24 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. Along with that, divisional home favorites are 13-28 ATS before being divisional home dogs since 1989. Meanwhile, divisional favorites of 10 or more are 10-26 ATS since 1989 before being divisional underdogs, including 7-14 ATS before being divisional home dogs. They’ll have a lot of trouble concentrating on the winless Jaguars with that game up next and, as they are an NFL team, the Jaguars are capable of taking advantage of that, no matter how bad they may seem.

Tennessee Titans 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +11.5

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Last week: 32

Record: 0-8

I still contend that the Jaguars will probably win a game at some point this season, but it’s arguable they’ve had the worst 8 game start to a season ever. They are the first team since the 1984 Oilers to lose the first 8 games of the season by 10 or more. The Oilers did it 10 times and eventually finished 3-13 (proving, once again, it’s very, very hard to go 0-16). In terms of DVOA, only the 2005 49ers were worse in the first 8 games of the season since Football Outsiders started keeping the stat in 1991. They’ve gotten outscored by an average of 22.25 points per game on the season, scoring 10.75 points per game and allowing 33.00 points per game, both of which are worst in the NFL. They also have more losses (8) than offensive touchdowns (7).

Week 8 Studs

LE Tyson Alualu

Week 8 Duds

QB Chad Henne

WR Justin Blackmon

TE Marcedes Lewis

SS Josh Evans

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars at London: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, 49ers, Jaguars, Uncategorized

San Francisco 49ers (5-2) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-7) at London

The Jaguars suck. There’s really no other way to put it. I don’t doubt they’ll pull an upset and win a game sometime this season because, as the 2007 Dolphins and the 2011 Colts will tell you, it’s really hard for an NFL team to lose 16 consecutive games. However, they’ve lost all 7 games by double figures and the only two games they’ve played that were within 16 points were against two bottom-5 teams my these Power Rankings (Oakland, St. Louis). That’s relevant here because the line is at 16.5 and the 49ers are clearly not a bottom-5 team.

It’s possible the 49ers could sleepwalk through the game like the Broncos did and “only” win by like 16, but there are 3 differences. One is that it took a pick six to even get it to that, as it would have been a 22 point margin or worse if not for that. The 49ers could, of course, also throw a pick six. That isn’t impossible, but it’s far more likely that the Jaguars throw a pick six and even more likely than no one throws a pick six.

The second difference is that the Broncos were distracted with Peyton Manning’s upcoming trip to Indianapolis on the schedule. The 49ers have absolutely no distractions here, with a bye up next. Since 2002, teams are 62-27 ATS as either 7+ point home favorites or 3.5+ point road favorites before a bye. I know this game doesn’t technically fit because it’s a neutral site game in London, but the 49ers are clearly the type of team that would be focused going into a bye and dominate a significantly inferior team and that’s what the trend is all about.

The third difference is actually that this game is in London. Imagine this for a second, you’re the Jacksonville Jaguars, you’re 0-7, you have to go across the ocean to play a 49er team that is 5-2 and made the Super Bowl last season. You’re losing a home game because of this game and chances are the London crowd is going to prefer the reigning NFC Champs over some shitty team from a city they’ve never heard of. There’s a good chance they just mail this one in. In fact, double digit underdogs are 0-3 ATS in London all-time. That’s not a huge sample size, but it’s worth noting and it makes sense. The 49ers could also be much more prepared for a game like this because they’re a superior veteran team.

The 49ers are playing excellent football right now. They’ve won their last 4 games by an average of 20.3 points per game and they should beat the Jaguars by at least 17. They don’t have Aldon Smith, but they haven’t really needed him. Their defense has shown their tremendous depth and talent level without him and 3rd round rookie Corey Lemonier has played well in his absence. The upgrade of Tramaine Brock over Nnamdi Asomugha in the secondary has also helped tremendously. And last week, Colin Kaepernick played arguably his best game since week 1 against a tough Tennessee defense and finally looked like the quarterback he was last season. This is a scary team and should be able to establish the run early and have their way with the significantly inferior and probably completely demoralized Jaguars. They’re also my survivor pick.

San Francisco 49ers 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 3 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: San Francisco -16.5

Confidence: Medium

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Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 0-7

The Jaguars suck. I don’t know what else to say. It’s hard to come up with something to say about them every week. They’ve lost all 7 games by double figures and the only two games they’ve played that were within 16 points were against two bottom-5 teams in these Power Rankings (Oakland, St. Louis). They go to London this week to play San Francisco and will almost definitely go into the bye at 0-8. It’s very, very hard to go 0-16 though, so they’ll probably win a game, against someone like Tennessee, Arizona, Cleveland, Buffalo, or Houston.

Week 7 Studs

WR Mike Brown

RT Austin Pasztor

Week 7 Duds

ROLB Geno Hayes

CB Alan Ball

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San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Chargers, Jaguars, Uncategorized

San Diego Chargers (3-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-6)

What an accomplishment for the Jacksonville Jaguars! They covered the spread last week for the first time and this season, only losing to the Broncos by a mere 16 points. In all seriousness, the Jaguars could be kind of flat after putting everything they had into that game and coming up short. Now they return home to face the Chargers. In case you didn’t already know this, the Jaguars are pretty bad. Even last week’s performance, their best of the year, would have been a 22 point game if they didn’t pick off Peyton Manning and return it for six (they failed on the 2 point conversion attempt). Justin Blackmon returning has provided a boost, but not one that losing Eugene Monroe, Luke Joeckel, and Cecil Shorts doesn’t nullify.

They are moving the ball at a 61% rate offensively, as opposed to 78% for their opponents, a 17% differential that is easily the worst in the NFL. They’ve lost every game this season by 10 points or more, which is relevant because this line is only 7.5 points. The Chargers are not a bad team by any stretch of the imagination. They beat the Colts at home last week. That doesn’t mean they are better than the Colts, just like their loss to the Raiders doesn’t mean they are worse than the Raiders, but they were able to take advantage of a superior opponent in a trap game spot and win pretty convincingly. Their defense has been terrible, allowing opponents to move the chains on 80% of opportunities, but their offense has been dynamic, moving the chains on 82% of opportunities. This line is too low.

On top of that, the trends favor the Chargers. The Jaguars have another rough game next week with the 49ers coming to town so they might not be as focused as they need to be. Since 2010, teams are 31-64 ATS before a game in which they will be double digit underdogs, which the Jaguars almost surely will be next week. On top of that, teams are 33-50 ATS as home dogs before being home dogs again. Meanwhile, the Chargers have a bye week up next, so they have no distractions. Since 2002, teams are 62-27 ATS as either 7+ point home favorites or 3.5+ point road favorites before a bye. Vastly superior teams usually take care of business going into a bye.

This would be my Pick of the Week if it wasn’t for three things. One, I’m concerned the Chargers could fall flat off of a home upset win, like they did in Oakland. Two, this is a 1 PM East Coast Time start for a West Coast team. Three, favorites of more than a touchdown on the road have not been covering over the past 3 seasons, going 3-16 ATS in that situation. However, the Colts covered as 9 point favorites in a 37-3 win in Jacksonville earlier this season, so this is still a high confidence pick.

San Diego Chargers 34 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: San Diego -7.5

Confidence: High

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Jacksonville Jaguars: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 0-6

The Jaguars are awful, but it’s way too early to start thinking about 0-16 for them, just like it’s way too soon to start thinking about 16-0 for Denver. As we’ve seen in recent years with teams like the 2007 Dolphins or the 2010 Colts, going 16 games without a victory in the NFL is really hard. They’ll probably pull off some random upset before the season is over. Candidates include home games against Arizona, Tennessee, and Buffalo, as well as a trip to Cleveland. I wouldn’t be shocked if they beat San Diego this week, if the Chargers turn in another road dud off of a home upset, like they did after beating the Cowboys a few weeks ago.

Week 6 Studs

WR Justin Blackmon

FS John Cyprien

Week 6 Duds

LG Will Rackley

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Broncos, Jaguars, Uncategorized

Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5) at Denver Broncos (5-0)

Anyone who puts any money on this game is a degenerate gambler and should seek help. You never want to lay 27 points with any NFL team. The highest line ever in NFL history was 23.5 points and the highest line ever covered in NFL history was 20.5 points. No team has covered as 20 point favorites since 1992 (0-8 ATS in their last 8 opportunities).

However, you don’t really want to bet on Jacksonville in this one either. Jacksonville is getting blown out. There is no doubt about it. Denver is moving the chains on 87% of opportunities, a ridiculous rate, including an absurd 100 first downs to 3 punts over their last 3 games. Jacksonville’s defense is equally as bad as Dallas, Oakland, and Philadelphia, who the Broncos have been able to score against at will, as the Jaguars are allowing opponents to move the chains on 78% of opportunities. Denver is probably going to score almost every time out again.

Denver’s defense isn’t great, as they’ve allowed opponents to move the chains on 75% of opportunities, but the Jaguars are moving the chains on just 59% of opportunities and have lost one of their few strong points, their two offensive tackles, in the last two weeks. Even with a slightly superior Chad Henne taking over for a once again injured Blaine Gabbert, It wouldn’t be me at shock if the Jaguars didn’t score a touchdown until garbage time (which could start in the 2nd quarter). This line is justified.

I don’t expect the Broncos to go undefeated or the Jaguars to be winless just because that’s really hard to do either way, but there is no way, barring a Manning injury, that Jacksonville doesn’t lose by two touchdowns or more. They’re getting blown out. It’s futile to bet on whether or not they’re getting blown out by 21 or 35 or 28 or whatever. That’s the definition of a degenerate gambler. The Broncos could easily pull Manning in the 3rd quarter and throw Brock Osweiler out there. The Jaguars could easily mount a garbage time drive that cut the margin of victory from 31 to 24. Don’t bet actually money on this game. Out of principle, I’m taking the Jaguars (and I have to mention that the Jaguars are road dogs off of a road loss, a 65% covering situation historically), but I have no confidence.

Denver Broncos 42 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +27

Confidence: None

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