Jaguars

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Jaguars

Detroit Lions (4-9) at Arizona Cardinals (4-9)

One of the most powerful trends is known as the six and six trend. This says that teams that finish 6-10 or worse struggle to cover as favorites of 6 or more, going 23-64 ATS since 2002. The Lions are currently 4-9 and need to win out to finish better than 6-10 and even if they win this week, there’s no way they’ll win out against Atlanta and Chicago. Not only are they 6 point favorites here, they are 6 point favorites on the road. I know the Cardinals aren’t very good, but you kind of have to be not very good to be dogs of 6 or more against a team that’s going to finish 6-10 or worse, so this definitely applies in this situation, even after Arizona lost 58-0 last week.

In fact, the fact that the Cardinals lost 58-0 last week makes it more likely they’ll cover this week. Teams are undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed in this situation. Teams are 41-21 ATS since 2002 off a loss of 35+. They’re definitely undervalued as the line has moved from -3 to -6.5 in the past week, which is a complete overreaction. I know the Cardinals suck, but didn’t we know that last week? A 3.5 point line movement is ridiculous. No one deserves to be 6.5 point home dogs to the Lions.

Further illustrating that the Cardinals don’t deserve to be 6.5 point home dogs here, we’re getting significant line value with them. The Lions actually rank 14th in net points per drive at 0.09 because they’ve had a lot of close losses, while the Cardinals rank 28th at -0.43, even after their huge loss last week. If we take the difference, multiply by 11 (average amount of drives per game per team) and move the line in Arizona’s favor 2.5 points for home field, we get that Detroit should be -3, which is where this line was last week, which is more reasonable. After all, of the Lions 4 wins, only one came by more than 4 points.

So we’ve established they’re undervalued, let’s move on to overlooked. The Lions are coming off a close loss as big dogs against the division rival Packers and next have to face the Falcons and Bears. Why would they care about the crappy Cardinals, especially off that huge loss? There are a bunch of trends corresponding to this situation.

Teams are 20-32 ATS as non-divisional favorites off a loss by 7 or less as divisional dogs of 6+ since 1989. Teams are 3-7 ATS as road favorites of 6+ off of being road dogs of 6+ since 1989. Teams are 70-106 ATS as road favorite before being home dogs since 1989. Teams are 5-16 ATS as road favorites before being home dogs in 2+ straight since 1989. Arizona is also in the sandwich situation. Teams are 59-85 ATS since 2008 as favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs, including 44-67 ATS as favorites of a touchdown or less. This is a huge breather spot for them in a tough stretch of their schedule.

So we’ve established they’re undervalued and will be overlooked. How about embarrassed? Well, they’ll definitely be embarrassed off of that loss. It’s just common sense and that does affect you on the football field. That aforementioned 41-21 ATS trend demonstrates this. These guys are professionals playing for jobs and money and respect and whatever. This game reminds me of the Jets covering as 9 point home dogs against Houston after getting shutout at home by the 49ers the week before in a 34-0 loss. We’re also getting a chance to fade a very heavy public lean in Detroit and the public always loses money in the long run.

All the trends say Arizona is the right side and they’re in an unbelievably good spot. Ordinarily, I would make Arizona a 5 unit pick of the week or even a 6 unit co-pick of the year (only used once this year, New England +3 at Baltimore, a 30-29 New England loss and cover). On paper, I love the Cardinals so much. However, I just can’t trust Arizona’s quarterbacks for that much. It also kind of worries me that the Lions have already covered once as 6 point road favorites in Jacksonville earlier this year, but I think the Cardinals are a better team than the Blaine Gabbert led Jaguars (they have a better defense and almost beat Atlanta a few weeks ago) and they’re in a much better spot. It’s a 4 unit co-pick of the week on Arizona.

Public lean: Detroit (90% range)

Detroit Lions 16 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against spread: Arizona +6.5 (-110) 4 units

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 30 (-2)

Record: 2-11

Net points per drive: -0.79 (30th)

DVOA: -34.8% (31st)

Weighted DVOA: -32.7% (31st)

After losing at home to the Jets, the Jaguars look poised to lose out. Their only remaining home game is against the Patriots and getting another win would mean winning in Tennessee or Miami. They are in are in the driver’s seat for the #1 pick right now.

Studs

RB Montell Owens: Rushed for 91 yards (25 after contact) and a touchdown on 14 attempts, 3 broken tackles, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 15 pass block snaps, caught 1 pass for 11 yards on 1 attempt

RT Cameron Bradfield: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 48 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 3 attempts

CB Mike Harris: Allowed 3 catches for 14 yards on 4 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 2 stops

FS Dwight Lowery: Allowed 1 catch for 2 yards on 1 attempt, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

Duds

QB Chad Henne: 21 of 43 for 185 yards and 2 interceptions, 3 drops, 2 throw aways, 1 spike, 1 hit as thrown, pressured on 61.4 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 18 of 47 drop backs (3 sacks, 2 of 15, 2 interceptions, 3 drops, 1 throw away, 1 hit as thrown)

LG Eben Britton: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 48 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 6 yards on 1 attempt

WR Kevin Elliot: Caught 3 passes for 38 yards on 9 attempts on 40 pass snaps, 2.3 YAC per catch, 2 drops, 1 interception when thrown to, 1 penalty

TE Marcedes Lewis: Caught 1 pass for 4 yards on 3 attempts on 27 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to, 1 penalty

MLB Paul Posluszny: Allowed 1 catch for 37 yards on 1 attempt, 8 solo tackles, 3 assists, 3 stops

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New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Jets

New York Jets (5-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)

I would say this would be the shorst game of the season, but the Jets and Cardinals from last week currently hold that title. Raiders/Chiefs next week might give them a run for their money, but this is going to be a terrible game. More importantly, how the hell am I supposed to pick a side? You’d have to be reckless and degenerate to make a big play on this game. Seriously, seek help. How can you get excited about picking the Jets as road favorites or the Jaguars as dogs of fewer than 3? There aren’t even any prominent trends that make either side attractive.

Using the net points per drive method of computing real line, we are getting some line value with the Jaguars. The Jets rank 27th in net points per drive, at -0.48, while the Jaguars rank 30th at -0.80. If you take the difference and multiply by 11, the amount of drives per team per game on average, and add 3 points for home field, you get a real line of a pick em, which makes sense because how the hell can the Jets be road favorites over anyone? That line holds up to DVOA, where the Jaguars rank 30th in both regular and weighted and the Jets rank 25th in regular and 26th in weighted. Chad Henne is also an improved quarterback over Blaine Gabbert, who started for most of their season. However, it’s not enough reason for me to want to take Jacksonville. Henne is too inconsistent anyway.

Gun to my head, I’d take the Jaguars if I had to for two reasons. One, I do think a pick em line is valid, not because the formula said so, but because this is a completely toss up of a game. Given that, I’d rather get +125 on the money line with the Jaguars than the Jets -2.5. I’m going to make this play on the money line, rather than the spread, but just know that this would rank dead last in any confidence pools and if you actually make a play on this game based off this advice, you have a problem. This is not a game to risk any real money on (I do units for confidence pools and things like that, but don’t recommend making plays on all 16 games. That’s just common sense).

The second reason is that the Jets have done a terrible job of bouncing back off of wins this season, going 1-3 ATS and 0-4 SU. Those losses haven’t been pretty. Aside from a near overtime win in New England, which would have been a huge upset, their other 3 games were 27-10, 49-19, and 34-0 losses. It also doesn’t help that Sanchez is starting once again for the Jets, which means the players might just completely quit on Rex Ryan, who appears to have no clue what he’s doing. Sanchez is also without top receiver Dustin Keller.

Public lean: Jacksonville (50% range)

Sharps lean: NYJ 13 JAX 7

Final thoughts: 20 people are degenerates apparently.

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 New York Jets 12 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +2.5 (-110) 0 units

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#30)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 31 (+1)

Record: 2-10

Net points per drive: -0.80 (30th)

DVOA: -34.4% (30th)

Weighted DVOA: -33.2% (30th)

Studs

MLB Paul Posluszny: 3 solo tackles, 6 assists, 3 stops, allowed 1 catch for -1 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception

Duds

QB Chad Henne: 18 of 41 for 208 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 1 throw away, 2 hit as thrown, 2 batted passes, 4 drops, 69.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 18 of 47 drop backs (4 sacks, 1 scramble, 5 of 13, 1 interception, 2 hit as thrown, 1 throw away, 1 drop)

RB Rashad Jennings: Rushed for 23 yards (19 after contact) on 8 attempts, 1 broken tackle, 2 fumbles

LG Mike Brewster: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

C Brad Meester: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 52 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 5 yards on 5 attempts

RT Cameron Bradfield: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 52 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for -1 yards on 1 attempt

RG Uche Nwanari: Allowed 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 52 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 3 attempts

WR Jordan Shipley: Caught 3 catches for 19 yards on 5 attempts on 37 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 2 drops

WR Justin Blackmon: Caught 1 pass for 9 yards on 6 attempts on 51 pass snaps, 2.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

SS Dawan Landry: Allowed 2 catches for 14 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles

CB Kevin Rutland: Allowed 3 catches for 69 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bills, Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) at Buffalo Bills (4-7)

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finished with 6 wins or fewer are 23-64 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 4 times all last season, going 0-4 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland earlier this year (they didn’t cover), but there was at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

I used this trend with the Raiders’ game a few weeks ago, -6 against Jacksonville. Oakland sat at 1-4 and looked unlikely to finish 7-9 or better and now at 3-8, it appears that was true. The Raiders failed to cover, needing a big comeback to win in overtime against these same Jaguars. Now the Jaguars go to Buffalo and will once again be 6 point dogs. Buffalo stands at 4-7 and is a prime candidate for the trend. If you look at their schedule (vs. Jacksonville, vs. St. Louis, vs. Seattle, @ Miami, vs. NY Jets), it’s possible they could win 7 games or more, but unlikely given the way they’ve been playing (more on that later).

Speaking of the Jaguars, I did mention that these were those same Jaguars. Well, that’s not necessarily true. Key members of their secondary, Dwight Lowery and Rashean Mathis, have returned after missing several games with injury. Lowery didn’t play against Oakland and Mathis left mid game. Also, Chad Henne is now at quarterback for the Jaguars. I know Henne did play in that Oakland game, but he played poorly because he was unprepared. Now as the full time starter with Gabbert out, Henne has the Jaguars playing much better football. He’s inconsistent, but even at his worst, he’s not a whole lot worse than Gabbert.

That should be taken into account when calculating real line, but even if it isn’t, we’re getting line value with the Jaguars. Buffalo ranks 28th in net points per drive at -0.62 (why I don’t think they’ll finish 7-9 or better) and Jacksonville ranks 29th in net points per drive at -0.73, with net points per drive meaning points per drive minus points per drive allowed (points per drive being offensive points divided by total drives).

If you take the difference and multiple by 11 (the average number of drives per game) and add 3 point for home field, you get a real line of about Buffalo -4, before even taking into account Jacksonville’s improved injury situation and the quarterback upgrade. Buffalo does rank 23rd in DVOA, to Jacksonville’s 30th (DVOA is based on net points per drive, but takes into account strength of schedule and things like special teams), but I still like getting 6 points with an improved Jacksonville team. I think there’s still some line value, not even taking into account the six and six trend. Besides, while Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS at home, they are somehow 5-0 ATS on the road this year.

There are a few things shaky about this pick, what if Buffalo finishes 3-2 over their past 5 games? What if the difference in DVOA is significant? What if Henne has a stinker? Jacksonville is also in a bad spot as non-divisional road dogs are 30-49 ATS off a win as divisional home dogs and they win as home dogs against Tennessee last week. There’s also the fact that Jacksonville is a publicly backed dog. There’s also, very interestingly, the fact that teams that are exactly 4-7 are 6-2 ATS as 6+ favorites since 1989 (though only 4 of those 8 finished 6-10 or worse and it’s a small sample size). Still, I like the six and six potential and the line value potential so it’s a significant play on Jacksonville.

Public lean: Buffalo (60% range)

Sharps lean: JAX 10 BUF 8

Final update: No change.

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 Buffalo Bills 17 Upset Pick +210

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +6 (-110) 3 units

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#31)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 32 (+1)

Record: 2-9

Net points per drive: -0.73 (29th)

DVOA: -33.0% (30th)

Weighted DVOA: -33.0% (30th)

Tier 7: Terrible

Studs

QB Chad Henne: 17 of 26 for 261 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, 3 drops, 106.6 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 15 of 33 drop backs (7 sacks, 4 of 8, 1 drop)

CB Rashean Mathis: Allowed 2 catches for 14 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle

LOLB Russell Allen: 8 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops, 1 quarterback hit on 5 blitzes, allowed 2 catches for 18 yards on 3 attempts, 1 pass deflection

FS Dwight Lowery: Allowed 1 catch for 4 yards on 2 attempts, 1 interception, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

P Bryan Anger: 5 punts for 235 yards, 4 inside 20, 1 return for 0 yards, 47.0 net yards per punt

Duds

RT Cameron Bradfield: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 1 quarterback hurry on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 1 attempt

WR Michael Spurlock: Did not catch a pass on 1 attempt on 18 pass snaps, 1 penalty

MLB Paul Posluszny: 7 solo tackles, 2 assists, 3 stops, 2 missed tackles, 1 penalty, allowed 3 catches for 60 yards on 3 attempts

RE Jeremy Mincey: Did not record a pressure on 38 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

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Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Titans

Tennessee Titans (4-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-9)

One of the most powerful trends applies to road favorites after a bye. Since 2002, teams are 44-15 ATS as road favorites right after a bye, including 22-3 ATS as divisional road favorites off a bye. I only heavily bet on this trend when the road favorite deserves to be favorites, but here the Titans do. Using the yards per play differential method computing of line value, the Titans should be 1.5 point favorites and using the rate of sustaining drives differential method says the Titans should be 1 point favorites. We’re getting a bit of line value with the Jaguars, but not enough to combat that trend.

The Titans aren’t a very good team at 4-6, with a -91 points differential. Only Jacksonville, Oakland, and Kansas City have a points differential worse than them. However, even sub .500 teams are 9-4 ATS as road favorites since 2002. And the Jaguars are so bad that the Titans do deserve to be road favorites. They are -1.1 in yards per play differential. No one else is worse than -0.9. They are -15.2% in rate of sustaining drives differential. No one else is worse than -9.5%. The Titans are the -9.5% team, and they are coming off a fluky win (teams that score 28 or more points as dogs despite 300 or fewer yards go 43-64 ATS in their next game) but they still deserve to be road favorites. The Jaguars don’t deserve to be favorites against anyone.

Chad Henne is now the Jaguars’ starting quarterback. He looked great against Houston, certainly better Blaine Gabbert ever was, going 16 of 33 for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns, but he’s notorious for being inconsistent. This is still the same quarterback that got benched for Matt Moore in Miami and who completed 9 of 20 for 71 yards against Oakland’s terrible secondary, blowing a big lead, a few weeks ago. I’m not worried too much about him as an “X-factor” or anything like that.

The Jaguars are also in a terrible spot coming off that near win against the Texans last week. Excluding road dogs, teams are 18-46 ATS off a road overtime loss (6-14 ATS as home dogs) since 2002. It’s going to be very, very tough for this crappy 1-9 team to get up after losing the biggest game of their season against a huge division rival and the best team in the NFL record wise. Furthermore, teams are 5-15 ATS since 2002 off a divisional overtime loss as dogs.

The Titans should be able to win this one pretty easily so it’s a significant play on the road favorite. That 22-3 ATS trend is hard to ignore, especially in conjunction with an 18-46 ATS trend and a 5-15 ATS trend. I also really like that this isn’t a huge public lean on Tennessee because the odds makers do need to make back some money after a rough 3 week stretch. I just wish we had field goal protection.

Public lean: Tennessee (60% range)

Sharps lean: TEN 20 JAX 4

Final update: This is the biggest sharps lean of the week and I’m glad it’s on one of my 4-unit co-picks of the week. The LV Hilton spread is Tennessee -3 and if I had that, I’d put 5 units on it and make it a true pick of the week, but I have it at -3.5, so it’s 4.

Tennessee Titans 27 Jacksonville Jaguars 13

Pick against spread: Tennessee -3.5 (-110) 4 units

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 1-9

It’s still neck and neck for them and the Chiefs. I don’t know if it really matters. They both suck. I think it will take one team winning to show any separation between them and I don’t see that happening. Gabbert has been put on IR with elbow and forearm problems, but it really just seems like a convenient way for Mike Mularkey to get Chad Henne 6 games to show if he has anything in this offense.

He looked good against Houston’s tough defense, going 16 of 33 for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns, but he’s always been inconsistent. He’s still the same quarterback that got benched for Matt Moore in Miami and who completed 9 of 20 for 71 yards against Oakland’s terrible secondary, blowing a big lead, a few weeks ago. I guess it’s wise for the Jaguars to see what they have with him, but they’ll probably be disappointed.

As for Gabbert, you can’t help but wonder if he’s played his last snap with the Jaguars. His tenure with the Jaguars was a miserable failure from the start and a terrible decision by Gene Smith to trade up and grab a media hyped kid who never did anything of note in the conference where defenses go to die, the Big 12. This teams looks destined for 1-15 or 2-14 and Gene Smith, the architect of this disaster, could be fired, leaving Gabbert without his greatest backer and putting a new front office in charge of a top-2 draft pick.

Studs

QB Chad Henne: 16 of 33 for 354 yards and 4 touchdowns, 3 batted passes, 5 drops, 99.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 13 of 36 drop backs, (1 sack, 2 scrambles, 4 of 10, 1 drop)

WR Justin Blackmon: Caught 7 passes for 236 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 14.9 YAC per catch, 1 drop

DT CJ Mosley: 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hit on 30 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops

Duds

RB Jalen Parmele: Rushed for 80 yards (40 after contact) on 24 attempts, 1 broken tackle, caught 3 passes for 3 yards on 3 attempts, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 12 pass block snaps

LT Eugene Monroe: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 39 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 33 yards on 12 attempts

LG Mike Brewster: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 39 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

SS Dawan Landry: Allowed 5 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown on 7 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Russell Allen: Allowed 9 catches for 83 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts, 14 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 stop

CB Aaron Ross: Allowed 5 catches for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns on 5 attempts, 2 penalties, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

RE Jeremy Mincey: Did not record a pressure on 51 pass rush snaps, no tackles, 1 penalty

DT Tyson Alualu: 1 quarterback hurry on 44 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop

LE George Selvie: Did not record a pressure on 22 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist

DT Terrance Knighton: Did not record a pressure on 24 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Texans

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8) at Houston Texans (8-1)

This week, when the Jacksonville Jaguars go to Houston to play the Texans it will be the latest a 1-win team has played a 1-loss team since 1990, when the Patriots played the Bills, also during week 11, How long ago was that? Well, here’s a clue. The Patriots were the 1-win team and the Bills were the 1-loss team. The Bills won 14-0, finished the season 13-3 and went on to lose their 1st of 4 straight Super Bowls. The Patriots did not win another game, finishing 1-15.

The Texans are 15.5 point favorites here at home. I hate laying this many points in general and it seems that the public agrees with me because, even as miserable as Jacksonville is, there is pretty even action on this one. However, the Jaguars deserve to be dogs of this many. In fact, this line might not even be high enough. The Jaguars are absolutely horrible, especially without Maurice Jones-Drew, who was a massive part of their offense, and with Rashad Jennings averages less than 3 YPC in his absence.

They rank dead last in both yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential. In yards per play differential, they are at -1.1. No one else is worse than -0.9. In rate of sustaining drives they are -14.8%, no one else is worse than -9.5%. They’re worse than even the Chiefs.  I’ve always said, if the Chiefs can avoid losing the turnover battle, they can be competitive. Meanwhile, the Jaguars have avoided losing the turnover battle. They are just -3 on the season, as Blaine Gabbert’s overly conservative style of play is not one that causes him to turn the ball over a ton. They still have not been close to being competitive, as they have a league worst -119 points differential.

Using those two aforementioned statistics, yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential, we can compute real line. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Houston -13.5, while the rate of sustaining drives differential method (which Houston leads the league in) gives us a real line of Houston -20.5. If you average them out you get a real line of Houston -17, 1.5 points higher than this line should be.

Besides, this big line seems to have scared people off of taking the favorite. I’ve picked a lot of dogs this week because most of the favorites have heavy public leans and the odds makers still need to make back their money from 2 weeks ago, but some favorites need to cover so I like being able to take a non-heavy publicly backed favorite like Houston, a real rarity this week. There’s still a slight lean on Houston, but the odds makers still win either way because of the juice. I like Houston to get their 5th win of the season by 20 or more and Jacksonville to lose their 6th game of the season by 17 or more, for a small play. Houston is 3-0 ATS as double digit favorites this season, while the rest of the league is 3-7 ATS.

Public lean: Houston (50% range)

Sharps lean: JAX 6 HOU 1

Final update: No change.

Houston Texans 31 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against spread: Houston -15.5 (-110) 1 unit

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Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#32)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Jaguars

Last week: 32 (+0)

Record: 1-8

Still the worst team in the NFL. I think the Chiefs are more likely than they are to win another game the rest of the way. They rank dead last in both yards per play differential and rate of sustaining drives differential. In yards per play differential, they are at -1.1. No one else is worse than -0.9. In rate of sustaining drives they are -14.8%, no one else is worse than -9.5%.

The Chiefs have much bigger turnover issues than they do. For all of his faults, Blaine Gabbert’s overly conservative style of play is not one that causes him to turn the ball over a ton. However, turnovers are much more inconsistent. If the Chiefs can avoid losing the turnover battle, they can be competitive, whereas the Jaguars have avoided losing the turnover battle (just -3 on the season) and have not been close to being competitive, as they have a league worst -119 points differential. The Chiefs almost knocked off the Steelers last week because they were able to avoid losing the turnover battle. If they happens a couple more times this year, they’ll win a game.

Studs

C Brad Meester: Did not allow a pressure on 59 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 4 attempts

SS Dawan Landry: Allowed 2 catches for 7 yards on 3 attempts, 1 interception, 1 penalty, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

LE Austen Lane: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hurries on 15 pass rush snaps, 1 stop

DT Tyson Alualu: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 21 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

RE Jeremy Mincey: 2 quarterback hits and 2 quarterback hurries on 23 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 2 stops

P Bryan Anger: 5 punts for 236 yards, 1 inside 20, 1 return for 12 yards, 44.8 net yards per punt

Duds

RB Rashad Jennings: Rushed for 27 yards (18 yards after contact) on 11 attempts, 1 broken tackle, did not catch a pass on 1 attempt

LG Mike Brewster: Allowed 4 quarterback hurries on 59 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 1 yard on 1 attempt

RT Cameron Bradfield: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 2 quarterback hurries on 59 pass block snaps, 2 penalties

WR Justin Blackmon: Caught 3 passes for 25 yards on 5 attempts on 58 pass snaps, 2.3 YAC per catch, 1 penalty, allowed 1 sack on 1 pass block snap

CB Aaron Ross: Allowed 5 catches for 108 yards on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles

DT Terrence Knighton: 1 quarterback hurry on 14 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, no tackles

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