Quarterback
The Jets have by far the longest active streak of not making the post-season in the NFL, with their last appearance being 2010 and every other team having made it since 2016, including all but five teams making it since 2020. When you look at the quarterback position, it’s easy to see why the Jets have failed to make the post-season for so long, as they have started 13 different quarterbacks since their last post-season appearance, including six different regular starting quarterbacks in 12 seasons. That’s not for lack of investment at the quarterback position though and, in fact, dating back to 2006, no team has spent more picks in the first two rounds on the quarterback position, taking six total, Kellen Clemens (2006), Mark Sanchez (2009), Geno Smith (2013), Christian Hackenburg (2016), Sam Darnold (2018), and Zach Wilson (2021).
Remarkably, not a single one of those quarterbacks has panned out as a long-term starter for this team, even though three of them (Sanchez, Darnold, and Wilson) were selected in the top-5 picks overall. Wilson was their most recent attempt at solving the quarterback position and, only two years into his career, he already looks like a bust, completing 55.2% of his passes for an average of 6.44 YPA, 15 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions in 22 career starts, playing so badly that the Jets didn’t even have confidence in him as their backup down the stretch last season. The Jets aren’t ready to completely give up on Wilson, but it was clear they did not want to go into next season with him as their primary starting option.
In desperate need of a quarterback this off-season, despite all of the capital they have committed to the position in recent years, the Jets set their sights on acquiring Packers quarterback and future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers, whose time in Green Bay seemed to be coming to a close. In fact, the Jets were so set on Rodgers that they seemed to ignore all other options, including retaining Mike White, who has probably been by default their best quarterback over the past two seasons (75.4 QB rating in seven starts).
It was a risky strategy to go all in on Rodgers, given that their fallback options if he didn’t pan out were signing backup caliber stopgaps or going back to Wilson, but it did result in the Jets getting Rodgers eventually, albeit after paying a steep price for a quarterback who no one else legitimately seemed to be interested in trading for, swapping first round picks this year (moving down from 13 to 15), trading away a second rounder this year, and giving up a conditional first next year with loose conditions that would still be a second round pick even if Rodgers gets hurt.
The common opinion seems to be that Rodgers can be the missing piece for a Jets team that finished 5th in defensive DVOA a year ago and only wound up with a final record of 7-10 because of horrendous quarterback play (75.0 QB rating, worst in the NFL), which led to the Jets finishing just 26th in offensive DVOA. However, that opinion seems to overlook a couple things. One of those, which I’ll get into more later, is that defensive performance tends to be much more inconsistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance, meaning it’s much tougher to be a top level defense in back-to-back years than it is to do so on offense.
Being a top level defense requires 7, 8, 9 starters all playing at above average levels and, with free agency and injuries and general regression, it’s hard for that to happen in back-to-back years. The Jets didn’t lose much in free agency this off-season, but they had several players who had the best year of their career on defense in 2022, which they might not repeat again in 2023, and they will almost definitely have more injuries on defense than a year ago, when they had the fewest defensive adjusted games lost to injury in the league.
On top of that, there are legitimate concerns about what version of Aaron Rodgers the Jets are getting at this point. Rodgers won back-to-back MVPs as recently as 2020 and 2021 and he has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league throughout his career, starting 223 games in 15 seasons as the starter in Green Bay and totaling 65.3% completion, 7.71 YPA, 475 touchdowns, and 105 interceptions over that stretch, while finishing above 80 on PFF eleven times and above 90 on PFF five times. However, he fell to 77.5 in PFF grade last season, his worst for a full season since 2015 and his second worst ever as a starter, while his 91.1 QB rating was his worst ever as a starter, a concern with Rodgers now heading into his age 40 season.
Even for elite quarterbacks like Rodgers, playing at a high level into your 40s isn’t common and, even if Rodgers doesn’t completely drop off this season, there’s a very good chance his best days are behind him at this point. On top of that, Rodgers’ contract is set to pay him over 108.8 million over the next two seasons and, while it’s structured in a way that significantly incentivizes Rodgers stick around for two seasons, he could decide in a year that he doesn’t care about the money and opt to retire, something he said he was close to doing this off-season, or he could continue declining and not be worth that high salary, which the Jets are essentially locked into unless Rodgers hangs them up after this season.
Overall, acquiring Rodgers is a risky move when you take into account his age, the decline he showed last season, his salary, and how close he said he was to retiring this off-season, but the Jets were so desperate at the quarterback position, despite all of the draft capital they have invested in the position in recent years, that they had they felt to get Rodgers to maximize their chances with a roster that is otherwise in good shape, even if their defense might not be quite as good as a year ago. Rodgers might not make this team quite the contender that many are expecting them to be, but he obviously gives them a much better chance of at least making the post-season and potentially winning a game or two once they make it, which is more than the Jets have done in over a decade.
With Rodgers being their only real addition at the quarterback position this off-season, that leaves Zach Wilson as the likely backup and, while his time on the bench could benefit him and he still has upside, the Jets would obviously be in a lot of trouble if Rodgers got hurt and they had to turn back to Wilson, whose only competition for the backup job is Tim Boyle, a 2018 undrafted free agent with just 106 career pass attempts and a career 54.5 QB rating. Rodgers’ addition obviously elevates the ceiling and the floor of this quarterback room, but his best days are probably behind him and the Jets would probably be in a lot of trouble if he happened to miss significant time with injury.
Grade: B+
Offensive Line
The biggest concern with Rodgers’ supporting cast is the Jets’ offensive line, which was a problem last season and wasn’t significantly addressed this off-season, with the Jets instead hoping for better health and better performance from the offensive linemen already on their roster. There’s a good chance the Jets do get more out of their existing offensive linemen, but this group ranked 29th in team pass blocking grade on PFF and 27th in team run blocking grade on PFF last year, so even if they are better than a year ago, they could still easily be a below average unit.
Alijah Vera-Tucker was the Jets’ best offensive lineman a year ago, one of just two offensive linemen to start a game for the Jets last season and finish above 60 on PFF, out of ten offensive linemen who saw starts for the Jets last season. Vera-Tucker finished with an impressive 71.8 PFF grade, while making starts at right guard, left tackle, and right tackle for an offensive line in flux a year ago, but injuries limited him to just seven starts total. This year, he should be healthier and is expected to return full-time to guard, where he made all 16 of his starts as a rookie in 2021 and received a 66.8 grade from PFF. The 14th overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, Vera-Tucker should remain at least an above average starter in his third season in the league in 2023 and has a chance to take another step forward and have his best season yet.
Mekhi Becton is also a former first round pick coming off of an injury plagued season, as the former 11th overall pick missed all of last season with injury. Becton also missed all but one game with injury in 2021, with the only extended experience of his career being the 13 starts he made at left tackle as a rookie in 2020. Becton received a 74.4 grade from PFF for his performance as a rookie and looked on his way to being an above average long-term starter, before the last two injury plagued seasons, so he could bounce back in 2023 if he’s healthy. However, even as a rookie he missed time with injury and he has a history of conditioning issues that have likely contributed to his injuries, which has caused Becton to fall out of favor with the Jets somewhat. He’s expected to start in 2023, but will be on a short leash and could easily get hurt again or prove to not be the same player he was as a rookie.
With Becton hurt, the Jets signed veteran Duane Brown to replace him at left tackle last off-season, but he fell to a 57.8 grade on PFF in 12 starts, after finishing above 70 in each of the previous 13 seasons, including seven finishes above 80. That drop off wasn’t that surprising considering his age and now Brown heads into his age 38 season, making him one of the oldest starters in the league at any position, so, while he may have some bounce back potential, there’s a good chance he continues struggling or even declines further.
With Brown aging and Becton coming off two lost years due to injury, offensive tackle was a big position of need going into the draft, but, in part due to swapping first round picks with the Packers this year and moving down from 13 to 15, the Jets were unable to get any of the top-4 offensive tackle prospects in this draft, with the last of them going 14th to the Steelers after a trade up. Instead, the Jets had to settle for Pittsburgh’s Carter Warren in the 4th round and, as a rookie, he isn’t a real insurance option for Brown or Becton.
Warren will compete for a reserve role as a rookie with 2022 4th round pick Max Mitchell, who had a 55.5 PFF grade on 341 snaps as a rookie, veteran Billy Turner, who has mostly been a solid starter in 61 starts over the past five seasons, but who is now going into his age 32 season and coming off of an injury plagued 2022 campaign in which he had a 56.3 PFF grade in seven starts, and Yodny Cajuste, a 2019 3rd round pick who has made just five career starts, in large part due to injury. All of the Jets’ reserve tackle options are underwhelming insurance options behind Brown or Becton, who both could easily struggle and/or get hurt.
Left guard Laken Tomlinson is also coming off of a mediocre year, finishing with a 56.8 PFF grade in 17 starts, but he has some bounce back potential, finishing above 60 on PFF in five straight seasons with the 49ers prior to last season (80 total starts), including grades of 78.8 and 75.9 in 2020 and 2021 respectively, before signing with the Jets on a 3-year, 40 million dollar deal last off-season. Tomlinson’s age is a concern, going into his age 31 season, so his best days could easily be behind him and he could continue declining further, but he could also bounce back somewhat, even if he’s not quite as good as he was at his best again.
Center Connor McGovern was the other offensive lineman along with Vera-Tucker who received an above average grade from PFF last season, finishing with a 69.6 grade in 17 starts. That’s pretty par for the course for McGovern who has been a starter for the past five seasons (79 starts) with the Broncos and Jets and has finished above 60 on PFF in all five seasons, including two seasons over 70 in 2019 and 2021. Despite that, the Jets opted to use their 2nd round pick on Wisconsin center Joe Tippmann, with McGovern going into an age 30 contract year. McGovern could decline a little this year, but figures to keep his job this year barring a massive dropoff or a significant injury, leaving Tippmann on the bench, unable to make much of a rookie year impact.
The Jets also have veteran Wes Schweitzer as a reserve option on the interior of their offensive line. Schweitzer has made 60 starts in the past six seasons, while finishing above 60 on PFF in four of those seasons, but one of those seasons below 60 was last year, when he finished 59.3 on 419 snaps (6 starts) and now he heads into his age 30 season, meaning he’s probably best as a reserve at this stage of his career, even if he’s an above average one who could probably fill in for a stretch if needed without a significant drop off. This offensive line should be better than last year, but that could be mostly by default and they are likely to remain a below average unit.
Grade: B-
Running Backs
Along with the injuries the Jets had on the offensive line last season, the Jets’ offense was also dealt a big blow when rookie running back Breece Hall tore his ACL in the middle of a promising rookie season, ending his year after seven games. A second round pick in last year’s draft, Hall split time with incumbent lead back Michael Carter for the first three games of the season, when he had 34 touches to 41 for Carter, but Hall quickly proved to be the superior back and had 65 touches in his final three and a half games of the season before getting hurt, ending his year with 5.79 YPC on 80 carries and 2.00 yards per route run as a pass catcher. In his absence, the Jets were stuck giving touches to Carter, undrafted rookie Zonovan Knight, and mid-season acquisition James Robinson, who averaged 3.52 YPC, 3.53 YPC, and 2.93 YPC respectively.
With Hall set to return for 2023, there is a scenario where he can pick up where he left off and continue developing into one of the best all-around running backs in the league, even if he isn’t quite as efficient as a year ago, but we also didn’t see that big of a sample size from him last season, so we don’t know how he’ll hold up over a full season and the injury complicates things as, even if he does turn into one of the best running backs in the league long-term, he might not be at his best right away in his first year back. His return should benefit this offense and he has a lot of upside, but he could be significantly less efficient than a year ago and the Jets might limit his playing time early in the season to avoid wearing him out in his first year back.
Carter and Knight remain as reserve options and the Jets also added Pittsburgh’s Israel Abanikanda in the 5th round of this year’s draft, to give them another depth option at the position. Carter probably has the most upside of the bunch, despite his disappointing season last year, as the 2021 4th round pick did have a decent 4.35 YPC average on 147 carries as a rookie before struggling last season and he’s also shown decent pass catching ability, with 1.26 yards per route run in two seasons in the league.
Knight showed flashes as a rookie, but ultimately seemed overmatched as a lead back, unsurprising for a player who the league let go undrafted a year ago. He’ll probably end up as a reserve for most of his career, as will likely be the case for Abanikanda as well, just based on the track record of players selected in the late rounds. All of their reserve options would likely be a significant downgrade from Breece Hall, who has the upside to be one of the best feature backs in the league, but who is also still very inexperienced and coming off of a significant injury that could limit his abilities and his playing time early in the season. Hall’s upside elevates the overall grade of this position group significantly, but this position group has a pretty low floor too.
Grade: B+
Receiving Corps
The Jets also have another second year player with a huge upside, wide receiver Garrett Wilson, and, unlike Hall, he played the full season and is not coming off of a major injury. In fact, he won Offensive Rookie of the Year, finishing the season with a 83/1103/4 slash line and a 1.85 yards per route run average, despite horrendous quarterback play. In four games played with Mike White, the Jets most competent quarterback last year, Wilson had 22 catches for 353 yards, good for 94 catches for 1500 yards over 17 games. Overall, Wilson finished as PFF’s 9th ranked wide receiver overall with a 85.9 receiving grade and, going into his second season in the league, with an obvious upgrade under center, Wilson could easily finish among the league’s leaders in receiving yards and, even if he doesn’t, I would expect his production to take a step forward from the already impressive season he had a year ago.
In addition to adding Aaron Rodgers from the Packers, the Jets also signed a pair of former Packers wide receivers, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, likely at least partially in an effort to convince Rodgers to be willing to play for them, rather than opting to retire. Cobb was signed on a cheap 1-year, 3 million dollar deal and will only be a situational reserve, as he’s going into his age 33 season and hasn’t exceeded 400 snaps played in a season since 2020, although he’s still averaged 1.61 yards per route run over the three seasons since (1.68 yards per route run in his 12-year career). However, Lazard got a significant contract, paying him 44 million over the next 4 years, which seems a little steep for a player of his caliber.
Lazard finished last season as Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target, but only took his 100 targets for a 60/788/6 slash line and 1.61 yards per route run, middling numbers for a wide receiver and not the kind of numbers that would suggest he’s worth what the Jets are paying him, especially when you consider that last season was his career high in receiving yards and that his career yards per route run average is just 1.52. The Jets are likely paying a premium to a preferred Rodgers target to ensure Rodgers would be willing to play for them. Lazard is not a bad wide receiver and his familiarity with Rodgers is a benefit, but he won’t be his primary target anymore with Garrett Wilson on this team and, as a result, I would expect Lazard’s numbers to dip below his numbers from last season.
The Packers also added ex-Chiefs receiver Mecole Hardman in free agency, but his 1-year, 4.5 million dollar contract also suggests he’ll be more of a situational reserve than anything. Hardman was a second round pick by the Chiefs in 2019 and had some flashes of potential in his four seasons in Kansas City, but he only played an average of 474 snaps per season with an average 38/522/4 slash line per season and a 1.65 yards per route run average, despite playing with Patrick Mahomes under center. Hardman is only going into his age 25 season and might still have the potential to become more than he is now, but it’s also very possible he just remains a decent rotational receiver.
With Lazard, Cobb, and Hardman being added, the Jets had to move on from some receivers this off-season and they did so by releasing Braxton Berrios (296 snaps) to save 5.5 million and trading Elijah Moore (729 snaps) to the Browns for the equivalent of a third round pick in draft capital in a pick swap, while Denzel Mims (269 snaps) seems unlikely to make the final roster, after three mediocre seasons with the Jets since being a second round pick in 2020. One wide receiver they could have moved on from and chose not to was Corey Davis, even publicly announcing that Davis would be back for the final year of his contract, despite his 10.5 million dollar non-guaranteed salary.
Davis came to the Jets with a lot of potential on a 3-year, 37.5 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago, a former #5 overall pick in his prime who had averaged 1.95 yards per route run over his previous three seasons in Tennessee before joining the Jets, only falling short of surpassing 1,000 yards because he had injuries (8 games missed in 4 seasons with the Titans) and played on a run heavy Titans team. With the Jets, Davis has had the opportunity for a bigger role in the passing game than he did in Tennessee, but injuries have become an even bigger problem (12 games missed in the past two seasons) and poor quarterback play has limited him to just 1.52 yards per route run over the past two seasons combined.
Davis gets an upgrade at quarterback this year though and, still only going into his age 28 season, he could still have potential if he can stay healthy. This is a crowded receiving corps and he probably won’t have a huge role as a complementary receiver behind Garrett Wilson, but the salary that the Jets opted to keep him in spite of is pretty high, which suggests he should at least be one of their top-3 receivers with Wilson and Lazard, with Hardman and Cobb serving as depth options behind them and Denzel Mims likely being left out of a deep and talented position group.
With a thinner receiving corps a year ago, tight end Tyler Conklin actually finished second on the team with 87 targets last season, but he was pretty inefficient with a 58/552/3 slash line (6.34 yards per target) and a 1.13 yards per route run average, in line with his career average of 1.14 in five seasons in the league. Conklin figures to remain the starter and primary receiving option at tight end, in the second year of a 3-year, 20.25 million dollar deal, but I wouldn’t expect him to be as involved in the offense as he was a year ago, with a much better and deeper group at wide receiver.
The Jets also have another veteran tight end CJ Uzomah, who they also signed to a significant contract last off-season, bringing him over from the Bengals on a 3-year, 24 million dollar deal. Despite his salary, which is actually even higher than Conklin’s, Uzomah was mostly a blocker in his first season with the Jets, holding up pretty well in that aspect of the game, but seeing just 27 targets and finishing with 1.03 yards per route run, in line with his career average of 1.02 in eight seasons in the league. Now going into his age 30 season, Uzomah is what he is at this stage of his career and he could easily start to decline. He’s not a bad #2 tight end, but he won’t have much of a role in this offense, in a receiving corps that is much deeper at wide receiver than a year ago.
Grade: A-
Interior Defenders
As I mentioned, the Jets had one of the best defenses in the league last season, ranking 5th in defensive DVOA. That was actually a huge improvement over the year before, as the Jets finished the 2021 season dead last in DVOA. The Jets were able to improve in a hurry because they were healthier, with the fewest defensive adjusted games lost in NFL, after having the most in 2021, and because they made significant additions in free agency and the draft. However, defensive performance tends to be much more inconsistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance and teams that make big leaps from one year to another especially tend to regress at least somewhat the following season, which is a concern going into this season.
The Jets also almost definitely will have more injuries on defense than a year ago and, while they didn’t lose a lot in terms of key players from a year ago, they still did lose some, while other players may fail to repeat last season’s performance. The position where the Jets lost the most this off-season was the interior defender position, where they lost Sheldon Rankins and Nathan Shepherd, who had 73.1 and 68.9 PFF grades on snap counts of 558 and 416 respectively last season, especially playing well as interior pass rushers, with a combined 8.3% pressure rate between them. The Jets added veteran Quinton Jefferson and Al Woods in free agency as replacements, but they are likely to be downgrades.
Jefferson has a 9.5% pressure rate for his career, but that’s because he has lined up on the edge frequently in his career, which is an easier spot to pressure the quarterback from and his run defense has fallen off significantly from earlier in his career, leading him to finish below 60 overall on PFF in three straight seasons. Now heading into his age 30 season, I would expect him to continue being a liability overall, especially if he has to line up on the interior full-time in pass rush situations, where he has not been as effective in his career.
Woods, on the other hand, is a base package run stuffer who doesn’t get much pass rush, finishing above 60 on PFF in run defense each of the past 12 seasons, but only managing a 4.7% pressure rate for his career. Woods’ run defense grade has been above 75 in three of the past five seasons, but he’s averaged just 477 snaps per season as a part-time player over those five seasons and he now heads into his age 36 season and could easily drop off significantly, even if he hasn’t really shown any signs of decline yet. Woods and Jefferson aren’t bad situational players, but they’re downgrades from Rankins and Shepherd, who were better all-around players.
Solomon Thomas is still on the team, but he was the Jets’ worst interior defender who had a significant role last season, receiving a 49.9 grade from PFF on 374 snaps, and he will almost definitely struggle in a similar role again this season. Thomas was the 3rd overall pick by the 49ers in 2017, but he has finished below 60 on PFF in five of six seasons in the league, including three straight seasons under 50, while averaging a total of 457 snaps played per season in his career. He won’t have a huge role, but figures to remain a liability even in a limited role. Fortunately, the Jets also still have their top interior defender from a year ago, Quinnen Williams, who was one of the best players in the league at his position, finishing 4th among interior defenders on PFF with a 90.1 overall grade, playing the run at a high level, but also adding 12 sacks, 15 hits, and a 12.4% pressure rate as a pass rusher.
It was the best year of Williams’ career, but it didn’t come out of nowhere, as Williams entered the league with immense talent as the 3rd overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft and flashed that talent right away with a 67.4 PFF grade on 512 snaps as a rookie, before taking a step forward in year two, with a 81.4 PFF grade on 587 snaps. A foot injury slowed Williams for much of 2021, as he finished with a 64.4 PFF grade on 613 snaps, but that grade was 71.4 from week 11 through the end of the season, as he got healthier as the season went on, and it wasn’t a surprise at all that he stayed healthy and had a career best year in his fourth season in the league in 2022.
Williams might not be quite as good in 2023 as he was a year ago just because it’s really hard to have that kind of season in back-to-back years and even only a little bit of a regression from Williams could have a noticeable effect on this defense, but Williams is still only in his age 26 season and, even if he isn’t quite as good every season as he was a year ago, he should remain one of the best players at his position for years to come, barring injury. He significantly elevates a position group that is underwhelming other than him.
Grade: B+
Edge Defenders
The edge defender position was arguably the Jets’ biggest position of strength a year ago. Given that, it was very surprising to see them using the first round pick, 15th overall, on Iowa State edge defender Will McDonald. The speculation was that the Jets, who took their full time on the clock, panicked when all of the top-4 offensive tackles were unexpectedly off the board by their pick and selected a player they liked, but who didn’t fit what they needed. Even if that’s not true and McDonald was their top choice all along, it’s hard to see how he has a path to playing an impactful role early in his career.
The Jets added edge defenders Jermaine Johnson and Micheal Clemons in the 1st and 4th round of last year’s draft and both showed potential as rookies with Johnson posting a 71.7 PFF grade on 312 snaps and Clemons posting a 78.7 grade on 311 snaps, suggesting they deserve bigger roles in year two. On top of that, the Jets also still have Bryce Huff, who only played 191 snaps last season, but excelled with a 90.4 PFF grade, posting 3.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a ridiculous 20.8% pressure rate, despite his limited role, leading to the Jets keeping him on a 2nd round tender as a restricted free agent this off-season, paying him 4.304 million in the final year of his rookie deal in 2023, which would also suggest he should have a bigger role this season.
However, with McDonald coming in, Huff could find himself getting traded, given that he’s in the last year of his deal and doesn’t have an obvious role in a very deep position group, playing a limited role a year ago even before the addition of another first round pick to the group. Huff went undrafted in 2020 and posted middling grades in his first two seasons in the league, 58.5 on 296 snaps in 2020 and 60.7 on 338 snaps in 2021, so the Jets might be selling high by trading him now and, if he can return a significant draft asset to the Jets, that would probably be worth more to them than having Huff around as a somewhat expensive insurance option and deep reserve for another year, before losing him for nothing in free agency next off-season.
In addition to Johnson, Clemons, McDonald, and Huff, starters Carl Lawson (663 snaps) and John Franklin-Myers (643 snaps) are also still around, at a very deep position group, so, even if Will McDonald pans out long-term, it’s hard to see how he can have much impact early in his career on this already high level group. Lawson and Franklin-Myers are also coming off impressive seasons as the starters and figure to remain in those roles, even with as much talent as the Jets have behind them on the depth chart.
Lawson struggled against the run, but was an effective pass rusher with 7 sacks, 17 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate, providing a boost to the Jets after missing all of 2021 with injury, his first year with the Jets after signing a 3-year, 45 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago. Last year’s performance was pretty par for the course from Lawson, as he’s consistently been mediocre against the run in his career, but has 27 sacks, 77 hits, and a 13.6% pressure rate in 68 career games. Lawson is still only in his age 28 season, so I would expect more of the same from him this season, although it’s worth noting that he has a history of durability issues, even beyond his 2021 injury, as he has missed 30 games total in six seasons in the league.
Franklin-Myers was also an effective pass rusher last season, adding 6 sacks, 12 hits, and a 13.5% pressure rate, but, unlike Lawson, he also played the run at a high level, finishing with grades above 75 on PFF both as a pass rusher and a run stuffer and an overall PFF grade of 82.6. For Franklin-Myers, it was actually his second season in a row over 80, finishing with a 80.3 grade on 717 snaps in 2021, again finishing above 75 as a run defender and adding 6 sacks, 9 hits, and a 12.3% pressure rate as a pass rusher.
Prior to 2021, Franklin-Myers was not as good of a run defender, but he still finished with 3 sacks, 10 hits, and a 14.4% pressure rate in 2020, leading to him having an overall 71.5 grade on PFF, despite his struggles in run defense. His run defense seems to have permanently turned a corner now after two straight strong seasons in that aspect, while his pass rush ability should remain as impressive in 2023 as it’s been for the past three seasons, still in his prime in his age 27 season.
Franklin-Myers is also a versatile player who lines up both on the edge and on the interior in obvious passing situations and, with the Jets having as much depth as they have on the edge, they could line Franklin-Myers up on the interior even more this season, to help mask their lack of depth at that position behind Quinnen Williams. Lawson and Franklin-Myers figure to remain the starters on the edge, even with this year’s first round pick Will McDonald, pair of promising second year players Jermaine Johnson and Micheal Clemons, and potential trade bait Bryce Huff behind them on the depth chart, in a very deep and talented position group.
Grade: A
Linebackers
One player who might have a hard time repeating last season’s performance is linebacker CJ Mosley, who played all but 24 snaps as an every down player and received a 69.8 grade from PFF. Mosley has had other above average seasons as an every down linebacker in his career, surpassing 65 on PFF in five straight seasons with the Ravens to begin his career from 2014-2018, with four seasons over 70, while playing an average of 64.2 snaps per game and 989 snaps per season.
Mosley’s performance with the Ravens led to the Jets giving him a 5-year, 85 million dollar deal four off-seasons ago at the end of Mosley’s rookie deal that still makes him the 5th highest paid off ball linebacker in the league, but, aside from last year, Mosley has been a disappointment since joining the Jets, missing but all two games with injury in 2019, opting out in 2020, and then performing disastrously in his first season back in 2021, when he had a 42.0 PFF grade on 1,098 snaps, before finally bouncing back in 2022. It’s possible Mosley continues his solid play into this season, but he’s four seasons removed from being a consistently above average every down option and he’s now going into his age 31 season, so it’s very possible he regresses at least somewhat in 2023.
This linebacking corps could also be hurt by the loss of veteran Kwon Alexander this off-season, after he proved to be a great value on a one-year prove it deal in 2022, finishing with a 63.0 PFF grade on 558 snaps, part of why this defense was able to improve as much as it did from 2021 to 2022. With Alexander gone and no real replacement added, the Jets will rely more on Quincy Williams (792 snaps) as an every down player, after giving him a 3-year, 18 million dollar extension to stick around this off-season as a free agent.
Williams was a 3rd round pick in 2019 and has started 36 of 49 games played in his career, but that contract seems a little rich, as the below average 55.2 PFF grade Williams received last season was actually the best season grade of his career, as he’s mostly struggled throughout his four seasons in the league. Likely to play the largest snap count of his career in 2023 with Kwon Alexander gone, Williams could prove to be a big liability.
The Jets also have very little depth behind Mosley and Williams if something happens to either one. They have Jamien Sherwood and Hamsah Nasirildeen, who were 5th and 6th round picks in 2021, but they’ve played just 164 snaps and 67 snaps respectively on defense in their careers and have shown very little, so they would likely struggle if forced into significant action. The Jets also added Western Michigan linebacker Zaire Barnes in the 6th round of this year’s draft, but he also would likely struggle in a big role.
The Jets run a 4-3 defense, which means in base packages one of the three aforementioned linebackers are going to have to play alongside Mosley and Williams, so one of them will at least have somewhat of a role even if Mosley and Williams stay healthy. Even in a small, situational role, whoever wins the job will likely be at least somewhat of a liability. With Williams being an underwhelming every down option, Mosley going into his age 31 season with a history of inconsistency, and no proven depth behind them, this position group is a rare weakness on this defense.
Grade: C+
Secondary
Probably the biggest reason for the Jets’ defensive improvement last season was the addition of cornerback Ahmad Gardner with the 4th overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Despite being only a rookie, Gardner was legitimately one of the top few cornerbacks in the league last season, ranking #1 among cornerbacks an 87.9 PFF grade in 17 starts, en route to winning Defensive Rookie of the Year. Gardner might not be quite as good as that every season, but he should remain one of the best players in the league at his position in 2023, even if he isn’t quite as good as a year ago, and he looks very likely to remain one of the top players in the league at his position for years to come.
The Jets also added veteran DJ Reed in free agency last off-season, signing the former Seahawk to a 3-year, 33 million dollar deal to start opposite Gardner and he was a big part of their defensive turnaround as well, finishing with a 72.5 PFF grade in 17 starts. Reed had only been a starter for a year and a half prior to joining the Jets last off-season, but he received a 73.1 PFF grade as a half season starter in 2020 and a 78.6 PFF grade as a full season starter in 2021 and, now without another above average season as a full season starter under his belt, he seems very likely to repeat that performance again in 2023, still only in his age 27 season.
On top of adding Gardner and Reed, the Jets also got a better season from Michael Carter, who posted a 74.3 PFF grade on 732 snaps as the third cornerback and primary slot cornerback, after the 2021 5th round pick finished with a mediocre 53.7 PFF grade on 777 snaps as a rookie. Carter is a one-year wonder and could regress a little bit to his rookie year form in 2023, but he could also keep improving, still only going into his third season in the league.
The Jets also have Bryce Hall as an insurance option. The 2020 5th round pick wasn’t bad with a 63.2 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2021, after a 59.9 PFF grade on 547 snaps as a rookie, but with the Jets being significantly improved at the position and staying healthy in 2022, Hall only played 15 snaps as a deep reserve. If more injuries strike ahead of him on the depth chart, Hall figures to have a bigger role in 2023 and he’s shown he can handle a bigger role, even if he’ll almost definitely be a downgrade from any of the Jets top-3 cornerbacks.
Safety Jordan Whitehead was also added as a free agent last off-season, signing a 2-year, 14.5 million dollar deal to come over from the Buccaneers, and his addition was a benefit to this secondary as well, posting a 66.1 PFF grade in 17 starts. That’s in line with how Whitehead played with the Buccaneers, surpassing 60 on PFF in three of four seasons in Tampa Bay, while making 55 starts, including a career best 74.9 PFF grade in 14 starts in his contract year in 2021. Whitehead wasn’t quite as good as that in 2022, but he was still a solid starter and it wouldn’t be a surprise if his 2023 performance was closer to his 2021 performance than his 2022 performance, especially since he’s still only in his early prime in his age 26 season.
The only starter who doesn’t return in this secondary from a year ago is veteran safety LaMarcus Joyner, but he had just a 57.0 PFF grade on 872 snaps and won’t be missed that much. In fact, the Jets have a good chance to get upgraded play at Joyner’s old position in his absence. The Jets first traded for Ravens safety Chuck Clark to replace Joyner, but after Clark suffered a season ending injury in the off-season, the Jets then signed another veteran Adrian Amos in free agency, giving him a 1-year, 1.75 million dollar deal.
Amos finished last season with a 53.4 PFF grade in 17 starts for the Packers and is now going into his age 30 season, but he’s a worthwhile flier on a cheap one-year deal because, prior to last season, Amos had finished above 70 on PFF in six straight seasons (89 total starts), including three seasons over 80. Given his age, Amos’ best days are probably behind him, but he’s also not totally over the hill yet and could easily bounce back from a career worst year, even if he doesn’t end up returning to his pre-2022 form. It wouldn’t be hard for him to be an upgrade on LaMarcus Joyner and, worst case scenario, I don’t expect him to be a downgrade.
Ashtyn Davis will probably be the Jets’ third safety and top reserve at the position and the 2020 3rd round pick made 16 starts across his first two seasons in the league in 2020 and 2021, but he was mediocre in both seasons and spent much of last year behind undrafted free agent Tony Adams on the depth chart, with Davis playing just 13 defensive snaps total, as opposed to 118 for Adams. Adams is still inexperienced, but it won’t be a surprise if he continues beating out Davis and goes into 2023 as the Jets’ top reserve safety. Whoever wins the top backup safety job would likely be a noticeable downgrade if either of their starting safeties got hurt, but they’re not bad depth to have. The Jets’ secondary should remain one of the better secondaries in the league, though it’s worth noting the Jets are unlikely to have the same injury luck as they had a year ago, when their top three cornerbacks and their top safety all made all 17 starts.
Grade: A-
Conclusion
The Jets went 7-10 last year with arguably the worst quarterback situation in the NFL, led by one of the best defenses in the NFL. This off-season, they added Aaron Rodgers, which undoubtedly gives them a significant upgrade under center, as a result, will make this a significantly better team, but I am not sure this team is quite the contender that some are expecting them to be. Rodgers is coming off of one of the worst seasons of his career as a starter and, while he was still better than a lot of quarterbacks even at his worst, he’s now going into his age 40 season and could continue declining.
Meanwhile, things are unlikely to go as smoothly on defense this year as they did last year, when they had next to no injuries and had several players who had seasons they might not repeat in 2023. As a result, the Jets’ defense seems likely to regress even somewhat as a result, as is often the case with top defenses from year-to-year, given how much more inconsistent defensive performance tends to be every year, as compared to offensive performance. This should at least be a playoff team, barring catastrophe, but the AFC is loaded and the Jets still seem like they are still behind the top few teams in the conference. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.
Prediction: 9-8, 3rd in AFC East
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