Jets

New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2016 Week 16 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (4-10) at New England Patriots (12-2)

The Patriots finish the season in Miami next week, while the Jets host the Bills. That puts the Patriots in a much better spot because the Miami isn’t a real distraction for them. The Buffalo game might not be a distraction for the Jets given that they’re facing the Patriots this week, but it’s tough for inferior teams to keep it close against superior teams with a big home game on deck, while superior teams tend to take care of business and cover the spread when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. While teams are 73-58 ATS since 2012 before being road favorites of 4.5 or more, as the Patriots will be next week in Miami, teams are 43-93 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 4.5 or more, as the Jets will be next week against the Bills. That being said, the Patriots are favored by 17 here at home, so we’re getting terrible value with them. This is a no confidence pick, but New England is the pick in pick ‘em pools.

New England Patriots 31 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: New England -17

Confidence: None

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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (8-5) at New York Jets (4-9)

The Dolphins pulled off the home upset victory last week over the Cardinals, despite being without a trio of key defenders, linebackers Kiko Alonso and Jelani Jenkins and defensive end Mario Williams, all of whom return this week. It was a game they should have lost though, as the Cardinals lost 7 points on special teams, thanks to a missed field goal and two missed extra points, one of which was blocked and returned for 2 points. The Cardinals had the 21-15 edge in first downs and won the first down rate battle by +6.52%.

Teams also tend to struggle off of a home upset victory like that, going 61-80 ATS since 2012, as teams tend to be overrated and overconfident in that spot. However, we’re actually still getting good line value with the Dolphins because they lost quarterback Ryan Tannehill with injury, which dropped this line from 3.5 to 2.5, despite Miami’s upset victory. That might not seem like a big swing, but 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal so it’s a very significant point. Considering backup Matt Moore is one of the better backups in the league and the Dolphins are significantly healthier around the quarterback now than they have been for most of the season, I think the line is very fair.

With that in mind, I’m actually taking the Dolphins as the Jets have to turn around and go to New England next week, where they will almost definitely be double digit underdogs. Teams are just 41-66 ATS since 2012 before being double digit underdogs and the Jets could easily overlook the Dolphins with arguably the biggest game of their season on deck. Because Moore hasn’t made a start since 2011, there’s not enough here for me to be confident enough in Miami to put money on them, but they should be the right side. Even a field goal road victory covers this spread.

Miami Dolphins 20 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: Miami -2.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (3-9) at San Francisco 49ers (1-11)

The Jets were embarrassed on national television in a 41-10 Monday Night Football home loss to the Indianapolis Colts last week. This might sound counterintuitive, but that puts them in a great spot this week, as teams are 92-54 ATS since 2002 off of an against the spread loss of 28 or more (the Jets lost by 31 as 2 point underdogs). It makes sense when you think about it, as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. I don’t know if the Jets are truly embarrassed or not, but they could easily be overlooked and I think they’re definitely undervalued.

This line shifted from 1 in favor of the 49ers on the early line last week to 3 this week, thanks to the Jets’ horrible showing on national television. That’s way too big of a line movement, especially considering the 49ers lost big as road favorites in Chicago last week. This line suggests that these two teams are more or less even, but I think the Jets are still a level above the 49ers, even down to 3rd string quarterback Bryce Petty. The 49ers’ defense has been decimated by injuries and this week they are missing left tackle Joe Staley, easily their best player on either side of the ball. They’ve lost their lost 11 straight games by an average of 14.91 points per game.

The 49ers could also easily overlook the Jets, with a tough road game in Atlanta on deck. Teams are 160-260 ATS since 2002 before being double digit underdogs, including 37-62 ATS as favorites. In a lost season, the 49ers could easily overlook a bad Jets team with a tough opponent on deck. The Jets are less likely to overlook the 49ers because of how badly they got beaten last week and the Jets are also the better team. There’s not enough here for me to put any money on the Jets as 3 point underdogs, but I think the money line at +120 is a good value.

New York Jets 17 San Francisco 49ers 16 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3

Confidence: Low

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Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (5-6) at New York Jets (3-8)

The Colts get Andrew Luck back from injury this week, but still have major problems on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they struggle against the run and the pass and, on the offensive side of the ball, they’ve had major issues upfront on the offensive line and have struggled to run the football. They’re healthier now than they were earlier in the year, but still rank just 28th in first down rate differential. That’s actually one spot behind the Jets. The Colts might be a little better than that suggests given their injury situation has improved as the season has gone on, but these two teams are much more comparable than this line suggests.

This line has the Jets as 2 point home underdogs, so we’re getting a few points of line value with them. On top of that, the Jets are in good spot, as home underdogs tend to cover off of a loss as home underdogs, going 75-53 ATS since 2002 in that spot. The Colts are also just 20-22 outside of the division since 2013, including just 1-4 ATS as non-divisional road favorites. I would need at least 3 to put any money on the Jets, but I don’t think we’re going to get that. At 2, it’s a low confidence pick. The money line at +110 might be the best bet here.

New York Jets 23 Indianapolis Colts 20 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +2

Confidence: Low

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New England Patriots at New York Jets: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (8-2) at New York Jets (3-7)

The Patriots are right in the middle of a very cushy stretch of their schedule, as they play the 49ers, Jets, and Rams in back-to-back-to-back weeks. Those are three of the worst teams in the league. As a result, they have no upcoming distractions and should be able to cruise through those 3 games. They got a 13-point win in San Francisco last week and could easily get another big win here in New York this week as 8 point favorites. Favorites of 6+ are 93-51 ATS since 2012 before being favorites of 6+ again, as superior teams tend to take care of business when they don’t have any upcoming distractions. The Patriots are 14 point favorites on the early line for next week’s home matchup with the Rams. However, it’s tough to be confident in them as favorites of this many points with Rob Gronkowski reportedly a gametime decision at best, after missing last week with a chest injury. The Patriots are the pick in pick ‘em pools, but I wouldn’t recommend betting on them.

New England Patriots 27 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: New England -8

Confidence: None

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Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (3-5) at New York Jets (3-6)

These are two of the worst teams in the league so I’m not going to spend much time on this pick. The Rams are a slightly better team, as they rank 30th in first down rate differential, as opposed to 31st for the Jets, but we’re not really getting line value with them as mere 1.5 point underdogs. The Jets are in a tough spot, looking forward to a bye as small favorites; Home favorites of 1 to 5.5 points are just 30-58 ATS before a regular season bye since 2002. It’s a no confidence pick, but I’m taking the Rams.

New York Jets 17 Los Angeles Rams 16

Pick against the spread: Los Angeles +1.5

Confidence: None

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New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (3-5) at Miami Dolphins (3-4)

The Jets are in a good spot here as 3.5 point underdogs in Miami, as the Dolphins have to turn around and play a tougher game on the west coast in San Diego next week, while the Jets host the lowly Rams. Underdogs are 89-60 ATS since 2008 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs and that’s almost certainly the case here. At the same time, we’re getting absolutely no line value with the Jets at 3.5, considering the Dolphins are the significantly better team between these two.

These two teams have pretty similar records, but the Jets’ two wins in the last two weeks have both come against weak opponents (Cleveland and a banged up Baltimore team) and neither victory was convincing. On the season, they rank 31st in first down percentage differential. The Dolphins, meanwhile, are coming off of back-to-back big home wins against quality opponents (Buffalo and Pittsburgh) and rank 10th in first down percentage differential. It’s hard to be confident in the Jets even in a great spot, but a field goal game is still a strong possibility considering 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal or less, so I am still taking the Jets for a low confidence pick.

Miami Dolphins 20 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at Cleveland Browns: 2016 Week 8 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (2-5) at Cleveland Browns (0-7)

The Browns host the NFC leading Cowboys next week, a game in which the early line has them as 7 point home underdogs. Teams tend to struggle before being big home underdogs, going 95-173 ATS since 2008 before being home underdogs of 4.5 or more, as big upcoming home games like that tend to be major distractions. However, teams that are 0-7 or worse are actually 10-4 ATS in that spot over that time period. The Browns enter this game as the NFL’s only winless team at 0-7.

Believe it or not, betting on winless teams this late in the season has actually been a winning bet in the past, as teams that are 0-7 or worse are 50-22 ATS since 1989 as underdogs. Winless teams understandably tend to be undervalued and I think that’s the case in this game, as the Browns are 3 point home underdogs against the Jets. The Browns enter this game dead last in first down percentage differential, but the Jets are just one spot better in 31st. The Jets’ record is obviously better at 2-5, but the 3 of the Browns’ 7 losses came by 6 or fewer points and they could easily have a couple wins at this point.

The Browns also get veteran quarterback Josh McCown back from injury this week, which is a bit of a boost, as he’s probably the best quarterback on their roster. They also get top cornerback Joe Haden back, though they are still missing several talented players with injury (left guard Joel Bitonio, wide receiver Corey Coleman, etc.). On paper, the Jets are the more talented team here, but I love getting the field goal with the Browns at home here, especially since about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or fewer. I’d still take them at 2.5, but I’d be much less confident in them at that number.

Cleveland Browns 23 New York Jets 20 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Cleveland +3

Confidence: Medium

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Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (3-3) at New York Jets (1-5)

No team has had a bigger drop-off from 2015 to 2016 than the New York Jets. A year removed from going 10-6 and finishing 2nd in first down percentage differential, the Jets are now 1-5 and rank dead last in that metric. They entered the season with one of the oldest rosters in the league, so some drop-off was to be expected, but they’ve been night and day different than last year. The obvious culprit is the offense, where veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been easily the worst quarterbacks in the NFL this season and has looked lost without injured wide receiver Eric Decker, who is out for the season. However, their defense has been just as bad. One year after finishing 1st in first down percentage allowed, they enter this game 28th in that metric, just one spot worse than their offense, which enters in 29th in first down percentage.

The Jets have made the switch at quarterback from Fitzpatrick to backup Geno Smith, who will be making his first start since 2014 this week. He’s unlikely to be better though, as he looked overmatched as a starter in his first 2 seasons in the league in 2013 and 2014 and didn’t look much better in relief of Fitzpatrick last week. In his career, he’s completed 57.9% of his passes for an average of 6.84 YPA, 27 touchdowns, and 36 interceptions. He also doesn’t have a lot of talent around him on either side of the ball; outside of the defensive line, this team doesn’t have a single above average position group.

Despite that, they’re actually favored at home in this matchup for some reason, as 2 point home favorites over the visiting Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are far from great, entering at 3-3 with all 6 games decided by a touchdown or less, and also enter this game very banged up, missing both starting outside linebackers Terrell Suggs and Elvis Dumervil, middle linebacker CJ Mosley, wide receiver Steve Smith, and right guard Marshal Yanda. Those are some of their best players. However, they still shouldn’t be getting points here on the road against an awful Jets team. Even as banged up as they are, they still have a significantly more talented roster than the Jets.

On top of that, the Ravens are in a great spot in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 132-100 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 104-68 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 222-236 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.87 points per game, as opposed to 322-448 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.03 points per game. In fact, the Ravens have actually played a game in New York more recently than the Jets did, losing a close one to the Giants last week. The Jets, meanwhile, have had to fly to the West Coast and back in the past week, with a crushing 28-3 defeat in Arizona on Monday Night Football in between. I don’t see them being able to bounce back on a short week. The Ravens are my Pick of the Week.

Baltimore Ravens 20 New York Jets 16 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +2

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (1-4) at Arizona Cardinals (2-3)

This is a tough one. On one hand, the Cardinals were 6.5 point favorites on the early line last week and now are 8 point favorites, so we’ve lost value with them in the last week. Meanwhile, the Jets are in a great spot in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 133-98 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 108-66 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 233-234 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.49 points per game, as opposed to 333-455 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.80 points per game.

On the other hand, the Cardinals are much better than their 2-3 record suggests and 8 might still be too low for this line, as there’s a major talent gap between these two teams. Despite their record, they still rank 4th in first down percentage differential and have a point differential of +24, 10th best in the NFL. Their offense (which ranks 13th in first down percentage) hasn’t been as good as last season, but their defense has been just as good, entering this game 6th in first down percentage allowed.

Their offense gets a boost this week with Carson Palmer returning from a one-game concussion absence, but Palmer hasn’t played nearly as well this season as last season and the Cardinals will be without both talented guards Evan Mathis and Mike Iupati with injury in this one. Even without them, Palmer still has a ton of talent around him on offense and the Cardinals are still a lot better than the Jets, who rank 30th in first down percentage differential and have one of the weakest rosters in the NFL, without stud wide receiver Eric Decker for the season and without top linebacker David Harris at least for this week. I can’t be confident in the Cardinals at 8, especially with the Jets in a good spot, but they should be the right side.

Arizona Cardinals 27 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: Arizona -8

Confidence: None

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