Jets

New York Jets sign CB Darrelle Revis

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jets, Uncategorized

Revis was reportedly going to give the Patriots the right to match any offer he got elsewhere, so we can safely assume that the Patriots’ final offer was less than this 5-year, 70 million dollar deal with 39 million guaranteed that Revis got from his former team, the New York Jets. That shouldn’t be a surprise, considering the Patriots’ history of not paying top dollar to players who are 30 or older, with the obvious exception of Tom Brady. That generally has served them well, but I think Revis is the type of player you make an exception for and that they should have paid up. Conversely, as much as the Jets paid him, they’re still getting a good deal with Revis and a borderline steal, especially considering how big of a need they have at cornerback.

Darrelle Revis is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, grading out 3rd in 2008, 2nd in 2009, 18th in 2010, 1st in 2011, 1st in 2013, and 4th in 2014, with a torn ACL in 2012 that didn’t slow his career down in between. He’s bounced around from the Jets to the Buccaneers to the Patriots back to the Jets over the past few seasons for a few reasons. He tore his ACL in 2012 and then was traded to the Buccaneers for a 1st round pick ahead of his contract year. Tampa Bay then let him go rather than paying him $16 million in 2014 and the Patriots did the same this off-season, rather than paying him $20 million in 2015. However, he’s arguably the best cornerback in the NFL, one of the best players in the entire NFL, and absolutely deserves this long-term security, even going into his age 30 season. He’s yet to show a single sign of slowing down thus far.

Grade: A-

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Chicago Bears trade WR Brandon Marshall to the New York Jets

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Bears, Jets, Uncategorized

Trade for Jets: The Jets surrendered a 5th round pick for Brandon Marshall in this deal, much like they surrendered a 6th round pick mid-season to the Seahawks for Percy Harvin. Marshall is older than Harvin, going into his age 31 season, but I think this is a much better deal than the Harvin deal. Related, this deal allowed the Jets to release Percy Harvin and avoid paying him a 10.5 million dollar salary in 2015. All in all, the Jets paid 7.2 million and a 6th round pick for Harvin and got 29 catches, 20 kickoff returns, and 22 carries in a lost season, overall a head-scratching move by the Jets.

Back to Marshall, he’s coming off of a down season, catching 61 passes for 721 yards and 8 touchdowns. The catches and yards were both his lowest since his rookie year. He was limited by an ankle injury all season and missed the final 3 games of the season after suffering a collapsed lung in a game. However, Marshall had missed a combined 4 games in his previous 7 seasons and, even going into his age 31 season, he should be able to bounce back for at least two more good seasons. In addition to being incredibly durable prior to 2014, he was also incredibly consistent, catching at least 80 passes for 1000 yards in 8 straight seasons, including 5 seasons of 100+ catches and 1200+ yards. Even with the down year last year, he’s graded out above average in 7 of 8 seasons, including 8th in 2012, and 1st in 2013. The 7.7 million they’ll pay him in 2015 is pretty reasonable for him and his 8.1 million dollar salary for 2016 is non-guaranteed.

Grade: A-

Trade for Bears: The Bears’ new regime seemed pretty determined to move on from Marshall over the past week so in that sense credit them for getting a 5th round pick for him. The question I have is why they were so willing to get rid of him. Sure, he’s going into his age 31 season and coming off a down year, but, as I illustrated above, he should be able to bounce back and his scheduled salary for 2015 wasn’t much. Marshall has been notorious for not always being liked by his coaches and teammates and suffers from borderline personality disorder so that might have played a role in his departure, but he’s still a good football player with good football left in him. This move leaves the Bears with not only a huge hole opposite Alshon Jeffery at wide receiver, but they also still need help at the #3 wide receiver spot as Marquess Wilson is still incredibly unproven, with 462 snaps played in 2 years since the Bears drafted him in the 7th round in 2013. I don’t understand this move by them.

Grade: C

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New York Jets re-sign MLB David Harris

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Jets, Uncategorized

David Harris is, by all reports, a nice guy, a likeable teammate, and easy to coach. He’s been a defensive captain and signal caller for the Jets defensively for years and he’s been a leader on and off the field. I feel like that gets him overpaid. Four off-seasons ago, Harris signed a 4-year, 36 million dollar deal with the Jets, even though he graded out below average in his first 2 seasons in the league and then just 21st and 25th respectively in 2009 and 2010. The Jets kept him through the duration of that deal even though he graded out below average in 2 of 4 seasons, including 48th out of 53 eligible in 2012, and maxed out at 18th. He was Pro Football Focus’ 29th ranked middle linebacker in 2014.

He doesn’t get quite as much money the 2nd time around, 21.5 million over 3 years with 15 million guaranteed, but he’s also going into his age 31 season. This is still an overpay. I understand it’s a very weak middle linebacker class in free agency and the draft as well to some extent. Outside of Harris and Rolando McClain, who has a tough record off-the-field, there really isn’t much in terms of free agent middle linebackers, which makes it a player’s market. However, guaranteeing player who is a solid starter at best 15 million for his age 31 and 32 seasons isn’t the right move. Something in the neighborhood of 3-year, 15 million with 6 million guaranteed would have been more appropriate.

Grade: C

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New York Jets 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Jets, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Quarterback

Geno Smith didn’t really work out. In 2 seasons with the Jets, he completed 57.5% of his passes for an average of 6.88 YPA, 25 touchdowns, and 34 interceptions on 810 pass attempts, while rushing for 604 yards and 7 scores on 131 carries, an average of 4.61 yards per carry. This shouldn’t be a surprise as the track record of quarterbacks drafted in the 2nd and 3rd round over the past decade and a half isn’t much better than the track record of guys selected in the 4th round or later. With both Rex Ryan and John Idzik gone, the current regime has no loyalty to Smith and will try hard to replace him this off-season. Unfortunately, they might have won too many games at the end of the season to get either Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston, but if one of those two falls to them at 6, I expect them to pull the trigger and either way this is going to be tops on their to do list.

Cornerback

Gone are the days of Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie. This year, Darrin Walls led all Jets cornerbacks in snaps played with 776. Going into this season, he was a 2011 undrafted free agent who has played 391 snaps in 3 seasons combined and he predictably struggled in 2014. After him, their next three players in terms of snaps played at cornerbacks were converted safety Antonio Allen, undrafted rookie Marcus Williams, and journeyman Philip Adams, all of whom also graded out below average. Dee Milliner was drafted 9th overall in 2013 to be a long-term starter at cornerback, but he’s played in just 16 games in 2 seasons combined thanks to injuries and hasn’t been that good when he’s been on the field. He could put it together in his 3rd year in the league in 2015, but there are no guarantees, especially since he’s coming off of a torn Achilles tendon. Even if he does, they’ll need another cornerback this off-season. A reunion with Cromartie would make sense, as Cromartie was dominant for new Jets head coach Todd Bowles last season when Bowles was the defensive coordinator in Arizona.

Guard

Right guard Willie Colon struggled last season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 66th ranked guard out of 78 eligible. After missing 36 out of a possible 48 games from 2010-2012 with injuries, Colon has made all 32 starts over the past 2 seasons, but it’s very possible that he’s simply not a starting caliber player anymore psychically, with his injury history and going into his age 32 season. He’s a free agent this off-season and the Jets should not bring him back as a starter. Meanwhile, at left guard, Brian Winters has been a disaster since they drafted him in the 3rd round in 2013. He was Pro Football Focus’ 77th ranked guard out of 81 eligible as a rookie and last year he was 65th out of 78 eligible, despite playing just 381 snaps. Oday Aboushi, a 2013 5th round pick, took over the starting job from him week 7 and was better, but only by default. Guard help is needed this off-season.

Wide Receiver

The Jets have made two big moves to add to their receiving corps over the past year. They signed Eric Decker to a 5-year, 36.25 million dollar deal with 15 million guaranteed and they traded a mid-round pick to the Seahawks for Percy Harvin mid-season. Decker has worked out fine, catching 74 passes for 962 yards and 5 touchdowns in his first season in New York, despite horrible quarterback play, but Harvin was a weird move to begin with and could easily be an off-season cap casualty. Harvin was traded by the Seahawks mid-season even though they were contenders because he missed 15 games with injury in 2013, got into conflicts with his teammates, and had just 22 catches for 133 yards and no scores in 5 games to start 2014. The Jets traded for him even though they were out of the mix and even though he had a non-guaranteed 10.5 million dollar salary schedule for 2015. Harvin wasn’t bad, catching 29 passes for 350 yards and a touchdown, but the regime that brought him in is gone and he’s not worth 10.5 million. He could easily be cut if he doesn’t agree to a paycut and if the Jets do that, they’ll need to add another receiver so they can keep Jeremy Kerley in the slot. Amari Cooper makes a lot of sense at 6th overall if he’s still available.

Safety

Calvin Pryor looked like a keeper in his first year with the Jets, after they drafted him 18th overall in 2014, but they have a hole next to him at safety. Dawan Landry was Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked safety in 2014, but he has an inconsistent past and he’s a free agent going into his age 33 season. If he’s not brought back, he’ll need to be replaced and even if he is brought back, adding depth and a long-term successor makes sense.

Middle Linebacker

Another veteran who is a free agent this off-season is David Harris, who is going into his age 31 season. Harris finished up a 4-year, 36 million dollar deal in 2014, but he was never really worth that kind of money, grading out below average in 2 of 4 seasons and maxing out as Pro Football Focus’ 18th ranked middle linebacker in 2013. Even if he’s brought back, depth and a long-term successor opposite Demario Davis are needed.

Outside Linebacker

Quinton Coples, Calvin Pace, and Jason Babin were their primary edge rushers last season. Babin played very well in 2014, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker, despite playing just 470 snaps, with no one playing fewer snaps and grading out better than Babin at his position. However, he’s going into his age 35 season, as is Pace, who struggled in 2014. Coples, meanwhile, has been decent in 3 years with the Jets, but he hasn’t quite lived up to his billing as the 16th overall pick in 2012 and the Jets have a big decision to make on his future this off-season, as he heads into a contract year. Long-term depth is needed at the position.

Running Back

The Jets signed Chris Johnson to a 2-year, 8 million dollar deal last off-season and it didn’t really work out. Johnson finished 2nd on the team to Chris Ivory in both carries (155) and rushing yards (663). Owed a non-guaranteed 3.5 million this off-season, the Jets could easily cut him and add a cheaper complement to Ivory, who rushed for 821 yards and 6 scores on 198 carries, but is useless outside of the tackles and in the passing game.

Key Free Agents

MLB David Harris

As I mentioned earlier, Harris signed a 4-year, 36 million dollar deal 4 off-seasons ago and played out the entirety of the contract despite never really being worth that money, grading out below average in 2 of 4 seasons and maxing out as the 18th highest ranked middle linebacker in 2013. Now he hits free agency going into his age 31 season. He’s still a starting caliber player, but he’s on the decline and shouldn’t be given a deal with much if not any guaranteed money beyond 2015.

S Dawan Landry

Landry was Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked safety in 2014, but I have skepticism over his ability to keep that up. For one thing, he’s going into his age 33 season. He also graded out below average in 4 of 5 seasons from 2009-2013 before last season, though he did rank 4th in 2010 and he’s played in all 96 games over the last 6 seasons. He should still be a starter next season, but, like Harris, he shouldn’t be guaranteed anything beyond 2015 on his next deal.

QB Michael Vick

Strictly a backup at this stage in his career, Vick completed 52.9% of his passes for an average of 4.99 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions last season on 121 attempts. Going into his age 35 season, he isn’t going to draw much interest as a starter and will likely have to be a backup somewhere again and won’t make nearly the 5 million he made in 2014.

G Willie Colon

Colon could be done as a starting caliber player in the NFL. He’s going into his age 32 season and coming off of a season in which he graded out 66th out of 78 eligible guards. He’s made all 32 starts over the past 2 seasons combined, but he has the type of injury history (36 games missed in 2010-2012 combined) where it’s definitely plausible that he could be done at his age. He’ll probably be signed at some point, but he could have to wait a while and he won’t get a guaranteed starting job or more than a one year deal.

DE Leger Douzable

Douzable has never played more than 423 snaps in a season (which he did in 2011) and he didn’t even play in 2012, but he’s graded out above average in every season in his career other than that 2012 season when he didn’t play and 2010. Only going into his age 29 season, Douzable is a valuable reserve who specializes in stopping the run. He’d be a solid cheap signing for a team.

CB Kyle Wilson

Wilson was a bust as a 2010 1st round pick. He’s graded out below average in each of the last 4 seasons and made just 27 starts in 5 years with the Jets, including just 1 over the last 2 seasons combined as he could barely get on the field, despite massive issues at the cornerback position. 2012 was his only season as a starter, as he played 966 snaps and made 15 starts, and he graded out 72nd out of 115 eligible that season. He’s going to have to look at short-term deals with little guaranteed money this off-season.

Cap Casualty Candidates

WR Percy Harvin

This seems logical. Harvin is owed a non-guaranteed 10.5 million in 2015 and hasn’t been close to worth that over the past 2 seasons since signing a 6-year deal worth 63 million 2 off-seasons ago. He missed all but 1 game with injury in Seattle in 2013, reportedly caused locker room problems that got him kicked out of Seattle, and combined for 51 catches for 483 yards and a touchdown in 2014 between the Seahawks and the Jets. Even in brighter times in Minnesota, he never went over 1000 yards in a season, missed 10 games in 4 seasons with injury, and had issues at times with his coaching staff. Some kind of restructured contract could be in order, but the Jets would only owe the Seahawks a 6th round pick if they cut him, whereas they’d owe them a 4th rounder if they keep him on the roster.

RB Chris Johnson

CJ2K is long gone. He’s still incredibly durable, having missed just one game in 7 seasons in the league, and he totaled 1000+ rushing yards in 6 straight seasons from 2008-2013, but, by the end of his time in Tennessee, that was mostly on volume than anything. In his final season in Tennessee, before they cut him, he averaged just 3.9 yards per carry, including just 1.8 yards per carry after contact. In his first year in New York, he was more efficient, averaging 4.28 yards per carry, but that was because of decreased volume as he had just 155 carries. Going into his age 30 season, with 1897 career carries, he’s only a part-time player at this stage of his career and he’s not worth the non-guaranteed 3.5 million dollar salary he’s owed in 2015. He was also recently arrested.

TE Jeff Cumberland

Cumberland played all 16 games in 2014, playing 926 snaps, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst overall tight end. He caught just 23 passes for 247 yards and 3 touchdowns on 369 routes run and struggled as a run blocker as well. Cumberland is owed a non-guaranteed 1.9 million dollars in 2015 and could be cut, a move that would save that total amount on their cap immediately. With 2014 2nd round pick Jace Amaro set to have a bigger role in 2015, the Jets could easily let Cumberland go.

OLB Calvin Pace

Pace wasn’t horrible last season, grading out 39th out of 46 eligible 3-4 outside linebackers, but he wasn’t very good and he’s going into his age 35 season. He’s graded out below average in each of the last 3 seasons so the Jets could cut him and save 2.125 million in cash and cap space immediately. They might also opt to keep him for the final year of his contract or he could just outright retire.

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New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets, Uncategorized

New York Jets (3-12) at Miami Dolphins (8-7)

The Jets said it themselves (or at least safety Calvin Pryor did). Last week’s game at home against the Patriots was their Super Bowl. Unfortunately for the Jets, they can’t even win pretend Super Bowls, but they did only lose by 1, the 4th straight Patriots/Jets game decided by 3 or fewer points and the 5th in the last 6. This week, going into Miami, the Jets could be completely flat after coming so close and falling short in their Super Bowl.

On top of that, this line is way too low. I don’t understand this at all. The Dolphins were 7 point favorites in New York a few weeks ago and now they’re only 5 point favorites at home in Miami. Sure, they didn’t cover last time around, but they still did get a tough road victory. The Dolphins haven’t been great in recent weeks, getting blown out at home by the Ravens and on the road in New England, but they had a strong performance last week at home against the Vikings. The final score says they only won by 2, but they won the first down battle 36-20.

Now on the season, the Dolphins rank 10th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 75.56% rate, as opposed to 73.15% for their opponents, a differential of 2.40%. The Jets, conversely, rank all the way down at 27, moving the chains at a 67.97% rate, as opposed to 72.08% for their opponents, a differential of -4.11%. We’re getting a lot of line value with the Dolphins, who don’t have any distractions during week 17 with their coach’s future publicly assured and should be able to take care of a drastically inferior opponent who could be flat off of last week’s close loss with Rex Ryan likely to be fired after the game.

Miami Dolphins 27 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: Miami -5

Confidence: Medium

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New England Patriots at New York Jets: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Jets, Patriots, Uncategorized

New England Patriots (11-3) at New York Jets (3-11)

The Patriots are one of the best teams in the NFL and the Jets are one of the worst, but this line is still a little high at 10.5. The Patriots move the chains at a 77.87% rate, as opposed to 72.00% for their opponents, a differential of 5.87% that ranks 2nd in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Jets rank 28th, moving the chains at a 67.73% rate, as opposed to 71.88% for their opponents, a differential of -4.16%. However, double digit road favorites are rare. It’s only happened one other time this season (Denver in Oakland) and 17 times previously since 2010.

It’s usually reserved for matchups between the absolute worst and absolute best teams in the NFL and teams are just 6-11 ATS in this spot since 2010 anyway. Despite that, the public is all over the Patriots. The odds makers know they can make this spread basically as high as they want and the public isn’t going to bite on the Jets. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because they always lose money in the long run.

However, I’m actually going to side with the public this week, though I’m not that confident. The Patriots always get better as the season goes on, at least in the regular season. They are 33-4 straight up in the 2nd half of the season since 2010, going 24-13 ATS. It makes sense as Bill Belichick is the best mid-season adjuster in the NFL. This season, they’ve really been on fire since week 5, losing just once, a close defeat in Lambeau against the Packers, arguably the toughest place to win in the NFL. Excluding the first 4 weeks of the season, they are moving the chains at a 81.32% rate, as opposed to 72.00% for their opponents, which is borderline otherworldly.

Speaking of Belichick being a fantastic adjustor, he does a great job in same season, regular season revenge games. The Patriots haven’t lost to the same team twice the regular season since 2000, winning and covering in all 10 instances. This isn’t a true revenge game because the Jets didn’t knock the Patriots off in Gillette earlier this year, but they came close, covering the spread, losing by two, and being a blocked field goal away from winning.

However, Belichick is also 5-2 ATS in same season, regular season rematches against opponents who they previously beat, but didn’t cover against. That means that teams that previously covered the spread against the spread against the Patriots are just 2-15 ATS in the rematch since 2001, which is absurd. Despite the outcome of that game, Belichick can’t be happy with how his team performed in the first matchup and the perfectionist and master adjustor should be able to get his team to play up to their abilities this week.

Also helping them is the fact that they don’t really have another tough game left in the regular season as week 17 is a home game against the Bills. There aren’t any distractions for the Patriots on the horizon, while the Jets still have to deal with a trip to Miami. Teams are 95-64 ATS as 6+ point favorites before being 6+ point favorites since 2010, while 6+ point underdogs are 65-91 ATS before 6+ point underdogs over that same time period. Going off of that, teams are 27-60 ATS since 2010 before being 6+ point underdogs when their opponent will next be 6+ point favorites, as teams in that situation are at such a disadvantage schedule wise. The Patriots should be focused and take care of business here by at least two touchdowns, but I’m not super confident. I wish this line was lower.

New England Patriots 27 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: New England -10.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at Tennessee Titans: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Jets, Titans, Uncategorized

New York Jets (2-11) at Tennessee Titans (2-11)

The Titans are a really bad team, moving within percentage points of a Raiders team that previously seemed untouchably in last place in rate of moving the chains, after a blowout home loss to the Giants last week. They move the chains at a 66.57% rate, as opposed to 76.11% for their opponents, a differential of -9.53% that ranks 31st (Oakland is at -9.61%). However, the Jets have no business being favored by a field goal on the road against anyone. They rank all the way down at 28th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 67.89% rate, as opposed to 72.70% for their opponents, a differential of -4.81%.

The Jets being favored by a field goal is a drastic shift from last week, when the early line had them as field goal underdogs. I love fading massive line movements because they’re almost often huge overreactions and in this case I think it’s an overreaction to the Titans 36-7 home loss to the Giants. That was an ugly loss, as was their 45-21 loss to the Texans the week before, but teams actually cover at a fairly high rate off of back-to-back losses by 21 or more points, as teams are 41-23 ATS in that spot since 2002. It might seem counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it as teams are often overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot. They’re definitely undervalued and they’ll almost definitely be overlooked and embarrassed.

Adding to the theory that the Titans will be overlooked this week is the fact that the Jets have a much bigger game next week with the Patriots coming to town. Teams are 60-94 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, including 31-65 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs, 9-24 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs, and 1-7 ATS before being 10+ point home underdogs (the early line in New England -10.5). On top of that, road favorites are 77-120 ATS before being home underdogs since 1989. Combining the two, road favorites are 6-18 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs since 1989. It’s a very small sample size, but the logic definitely makes sense.

The only reason this isn’t a bigger play on the Titans is because the Jets are in their 2nd straight road game this week, which is an added benefit. Teams are 46-31 ATS as road favorites off a road loss since 2008, including 38-26 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 182-195 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.32 points per game, as opposed to 269-385 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.28 points per game. However, that aforementioned 38-26 ATS trend is just 5-9 ATS since 1989 when the previous game was an overtime contest and teams in general are 79-97 ATS since 1989 off of a road overtime loss. The Titans should be the right side.

Tennessee Titans 16 New York Jets 13 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Medium

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New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Jets, Uncategorized, Vikings

New York Jets (2-10) at Minnesota Vikings (5-7)

Both of these teams will be road underdogs next week, but the Vikings will have a much tougher game. While the Jets will be in Tennessee, the Vikings have to go to Detroit. On top of that, the Vikings are in a bad spot because they are non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road underdogs, a situation teams are 88-107 ATS in since 2002, but the Jets are in a good spot as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road underdogs. Teams are 100-70 ATS in that spot since 2002.

The Vikings could also be in a bad spot as teams that finish 6-10 or worse cover the spread as 6+ point favorites about a quarter of the time historically. The Vikings are 5-7 and need to finish 2-2 or better over their final 4 games. They are projected to be favored at home week 17 for Chicago in addition to being favored here so that trend might not necessarily be applicable, but it easily could be. Even if it isn’t, this line is still way too high at 6 points regardless.

The Vikings are even worse than their record suggests, as they rank 28th in the NFL, moving the chains at a 68.53% rate, as opposed to 74.11% for their opponents, a differential of -5.59%. The Jets aren’t good, but they actually rank higher, ranking 27th, moving the chains at a 68.19% rate, as opposed to 72.93% for their opponents, a differential of -4.74%, almost a whole percentage point better than Minnesota. The public saw the Vikings beat the Panthers 31-13 last week, but they ignore that they had 2 touchdowns on blocked punts, which is obviously not sustainable. The Vikings lost the chain game to the Panthers, as they have almost every week this season.

The public is on the Vikings and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they always lose money in the long run and it makes sense here. Regardless of what record the Vikings finish with, they aren’t deserving of being 6 point favorites over pretty much anyone (except Oakland and maybe Tennessee). Speaking of the Vikings being 6 point favorites this week and speaking of them having a tough game next week, favorites of 6 or more are just 46-80 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more (the early line is 7) since 2002. Between that and the fact that the Vikings are overrated, I like the Jets a good amount here as long as the line is 6 or more.

Minnesota Vikings 17 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +6

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (6-5) at New York Jets (2-9)

The Jets were blown out last Monday, losing 38-3 in Detroit to the Bills in a game that had both its time and its location moved by a snow storm in Buffalo. Teams generally don’t do well off of a Monday Night blowout loss, going 18-28 ATS since 2002 after a loss on Monday Night by 21 or more. However, it’s unclear if the same type of thing will happen here because that game wasn’t nationally televised so it wasn’t as embarrassing.

The Jets also play again on Monday Night Football here, so they’ll have an extra day to regroup that they wouldn’t have otherwise had. There’s almost no data on teams playing back-to-back Monday Night games because the NFL doesn’t schedule those for teams. It takes a special act of nature for something like this to happen so that kind of leaves us in the dark in terms of what the Jets’ mental state will be this week and whether or not they’ll be able to bounce back. We do know that teams generally do well off of a blowout loss by 35 or more in general, going 47-25 ATS since 2002. This makes sense as teams tend to be overlooked, undervalued, and embarrassed in that spot.

However, on the other hand, divisional home underdogs do not do well in nationally televised night games, going 31-59 ATS since 1989. They’re also the significantly inferior team here as the Dolphins remain better than their record, especially after coming close to knocking off the Broncos in Denver last week. They still rank 4th, moving the chains at a 75.76% rate, as opposed to 70.94% for their opponents, a differential of 4.82%.

The Jets, meanwhile, rank 28th, moving the chains at a 68.22% rate, as opposed to 73.54% for their opponents, a differential of -5.31%. Making things even worse for the Jets, Muhammad Wilkerson is expected to be out for this game and he’s one of their few good players. As high as this line is at 6.5, it’s not quite high enough so while the Jets could be overlooked and embarrassed, I don’t think they’re undervalued. There’s not enough here for me to be that confident in Miami, but they should be the right side.

Miami Dolphins 27 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: Miami -6.5

Confidence: Low

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New York Jets at Buffalo Bills in Detroit: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Bills, Jets, Uncategorized

New York Jets (2-8) at Buffalo Bills (5-5) in Detroit

In case you haven’t heard, this game is getting moved from Buffalo to Detroit as a result of the massive snowstorm that hit Buffalo this weekend. This line moved from 4.5 to 3 as a result, but I don’t think that’s nearly a big enough line movement. The typical line movement for homefield advantage is 3 and I think this is much more of a neutral site game than that line movement suggests. On top of that, the Bills are at a tremendous disadvantage because they’ve been unable to practice all week. There’s no way they’ll be able to be as focused as the Jets, who got a normal week of practice in this week and didn’t have to deal with a ton of snow effecting their day-to-day lives.

Some might think that because the Bills won by 20 earlier this game in New York against the Jets that the Bills should still be able to win easily here, but that game was very fluky. Easily the biggest reason for the loss was the Jets -6 turnover margin, but turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week to week basis. Teams that have a turnover margin of -4 on average have a turnover margin of +0.1 the following week. Even crazier, teams with a turnover margin of -6 or more have an average turnover margin of +0.3 the following week. The Jets actually won the chain game, moving the chains at a 67.57% rate, as opposed to 65.38% for the Bills. The Bills were way too reliant on turnovers, which they won’t be able to rely on this week.

The Jets have played better over the past 2 weeks since that game, as a result of the switch from Geno Smith to Michael Vick at quarterback. Vick isn’t great, but he’s an upgrade on the horrific Geno Smith. The Jets are actually better on the season in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 69.10% rate, as opposed to 72.79% for their opponents, a differential of -3.69% that ranks 24th in the NFL. The Bills, meanwhile, move the chains at a 64.71% rate, as opposed to 69.04% for their opponents, a differential of -4.33% that ranks 26th in the NFL. I’m not that confident in the Jets and I don’t want to put any money on this game given all the externalities effecting it that are so hard to quantify, but I feel like you have to take the points here.

New York Jets 13 Buffalo Bills 12 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3

Confidence: Low

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