Jets

Should the Jets trade Darrelle Revis?

stevenlourie Jets, News

The reasons for not trading Darrelle Revis are obvious. When healthy, this guy is not only the Jets’ best player, but probably the best defensive back in the entire NFL and maybe even the best overall defensive player in the NFL. Including this year, when he played just 1 ½ games thanks to injury, Revis has allowed 153 completions on 371 attempts (41.2%) for 1946 yards (5.2 YPA), 8 touchdowns, 18 interceptions, while deflecting 62 passes, and committing 13 penalties over the past 5 seasons. That’s a QB rating allowed of 45.3.

No one else even comes close to that and he does it despite shadowing the opponent’s #1 wide receiver on every snap, something that most #1 cornerbacks don’t do anymore. He’s also just 28 in July and should have at least 3 more years playing at this level left in him. He’s coming off a torn ACL and the Jets would clearly be selling him low by trading him now, which is not normally an advisable move.

I say “normally” because there are reasons why moving him now would be smart. Without him last year, the Jets ranked 22nd in opponent’s scoring, but that’s more on the offense than the defense. According to DVOA, they were the 30th ranked offense in the NFL and 9th ranked defense and they were just 8th in the NFL in opponent’s yardage. That 9th ranked defensive DVOA is not on the same level as it was in the past 3 years, as they ranked 1st, 5th, and 2nd in defensive DVOA in 2009, 2010, and 2011 respectively, but it’s hardly bad.

It’s not that they didn’t miss Revis. It’s impossible to not miss a player of his talent. However, Antonio Cromartie stepped into that Revis role well, mostly shadowing opponent’s #1 receivers and allowing a 69.7 QB rating against and 46.0% completion. Defense wasn’t the issue for them last year. It was the offense. Because of the offense’s ineptitude and the “salary cap hell” they are in (more on that later), they probably won’t be competitive next year regardless of whether or not they trade Revis, which is important to note because not trading Revis would essentially be the same as renting him for a year.

Unless they sign him to an extension this off-season, Revis will be a free agent next off-season. They can’t franchise him, per his contract. And it’s highly unlikely they will be able to re-sign him this off-season, which goes back to that “salary cap hell”. That’s not my term. That’s how it was described by a league source, as they Jets are expected to enter the off-season around 19.4 million over the cap. That’s why they had so much trouble finding someone to fill their GM job.

They’ll have to cut several big salary players just to get under the cap and they have 10 starters from 2012 who are already not under contract. They’ll probably cut Bart Scott, Calvin Pace, and maybe David Harris, which would leave them with 9 starters under contract heading into the off-season (and one of those is Mark Sanchez). They probably won’t be able to re-sign key contributors LaRon Landry, Mike DeVito, Shonn Greene, and Dustin Keller already. How are they going to be able to give Revis the kind of extension he’s looking for, roughly 16 million per year? And if their cap situation is this bad now, it’s really going to put them at a disadvantage trying to re-sign Revis next off-season. This type of thing doesn’t fix itself in one year and Revis may want to play for a contender anyway.

Whatever happens, it’s tough to see Revis in a Jets jersey in 2014. It would be smart for the Jets to trade him while they can still get something for him, considering they are in no position to contend for a playoff spot in 2013 either way. Despite the torn ACL that cost him most of last season, he’ll still command a huge price on the trade market.

It’s not often that a player of Revis’ caliber is available through trade. It takes a special set of circumstances, but I think these circumstances qualify. This is the defensive equivalent of Peyton Manning being available last off-season or the modern equivalent of Reggie White being available in 1993. The Jets should be able to land at least a first rounder for him and if they can get a 1st rounder, preferably one in the top-15 picks, as well as a later pick, I say pull the trigger. That would give them a pair of top-15 picks to build around for the future, hopefully in a more cap responsible manner.

At least 10 teams have been rumored destinations for Revis and it wouldn’t surprise me if even more than 10 teams seriously consider it and call up new Jets GM John Idzik to feel the waters. Among those teams, I think that three are the most likely destinations. The Buccaneers make the most sense to me. They need cornerback help more than maybe anyone else in the NFL. Aqib Talib is gone and Eric Wright could follow him, after a 4 game suspension give the Buccaneers the right to void without penalty the rest of what was a ridiculous contract to begin with. He’s not worth the 30.75 million over 4 years left on his contract.

In their absence down the stretch, they tried several young cornerbacks, but ended up ranking 29th against the pass. They will probably bring in at least 1 cornerback, maybe two, in the first 3 rounds of the draft and cornerbacks are the favorites to go to them at 13th overall. However, even coming off a torn ACL, Revis is far more of a sure thing than any draft prospect could ever be and the Buccaneers have among the most salary cap in the NFL and would be able to sign him long term pretty easily.

The Bengals are another team with a lot of cap space, most in the NFL in fact. They have a few big free agents to re-sign, like Andre Smith and Michael Johnson, but even after that, they’ll definitely be able to sign Revis long term. They also have a pair of 2nd round picks so losing their first rounder and a later pick wouldn’t be that big of a deal for them. Adding Revis to a talented defense that already has Geno Atkins, Michael Johnson, Carlos Dunlap, Leon Hall, and Reggie Nelson would be enough to push them into top-5 status, at the very least, after being a top-10 defense in each of the past two years, and would make them Super Bowl contenders, however average the offense may be. Revis would play next alongside Leon Hall, with 2012 1st round pick Dre Kirkpatrick either moving to the slot or to safety.

The Colts are the third team. They also have plenty of cap space and after doing such a great job in 2012 despite having replacement level talents at almost every position, adding an elite player like Revis is exactly what they need. They are the third team, however, because they don’t have a 2nd round pick, after trading it for Vontae Davis. They may be hesitant to trade away their 1st rounder and a later pick for Revis for that reason, although they do like making splash moves and it would definitely make them a better football team both short term and long term. Other teams mentioned include New England, San Francisco, Seattle, Buffalo, Denver, and Atlanta, but for different reasons, none of those are as feasible as the three aforementioned teams.

[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets 2013 Needs

stevenlourie Jets

Several teams had worse years than the Jets, but I don’t think anyone had a weirder year. Turned into a circus in the offseason by the media, the Jets lived up to the hype. Neither Mark Sanchez nor Tim Tebow led a touchdown drive all pre-season, but after a blowout win over the Bills week 1 and another win against the Dolphins week 3, this time in overtime, the Jets stood at 2-1. However, they suffered a major loss in that win, losing Darrelle Revis for the season. The following week, they were blown out 34-0 at home by the 49ers, on the strength of a Santonio Holmes “fumble.” Holmes got hurt on the play and mindlessly tossed the ball up in the air, only to have it returned for a touchdown by the Jets. Holmes didn’t play again the rest of the year.

After winning 2 of their first 3 games, the Jets won just 2 in their next 9 games, including the infamous “butt fumble” loss to the Patriots, which caused top fan Fireman Ed to quit. Mark Sanchez was struggling mightily, but Rex Ryan was stubbornly sticking with him even though the Jets had spent significant resources to acquire Tim Tebow during the offseason, presumably to provide competition for Sanchez. However, Ryan told the media that Tebow was never brought in to be a quarterback and that his current role, a few snaps and odds jobs per game, was his intended role. That doesn’t make any sense considering what they gave up for him, but I wouldn’t put it past the Jets. They may have just brought in Tebow to attract media attention.

Of course, Rex Ryan may have been lying when he said that. It’s very possible that there was just a major disconnect between the front office and Ryan on the situation. The front office clearly wanted him there for some reason. They traded for him. But Rex Ryan wanted no part of him on the field. Unsurprisingly, the game Ryan finally benched Sanchez, a 3 interception performance in an eventual 7-6 win that might have been the worst NFL game of the season, was the game in which Greg McElroy was Sanchez’ backup because Tebow was hurt.

Sanchez got his starting job back, but not for long. After a 5 turnover performance in a very winnable MNF game against the lowly Titans, the man who apparently has a tattoo of his wife wearing a Mark Sanchez jersey finally benched Sanchez, but it was too late as the Jets had already been eliminated from the playoffs with that loss. Ironically enough, Rex Ryan completely skipped 2nd string on his depth chart and started 3rd stringer Greg McElroy over Tebow when Sanchez was benched.

McElroy played like the inexperienced former 7th round pick he was, showing no pocket presence whatsoever, taking a ridiculous 11 sacks, most of which were on him as he was only pressured on 17 drop backs. McElroy got hurt in that game and Ryan went back to Sanchez for week 17, a loss to the Bills, which ended their season at 6-10.

Rex Ryan kept his job, but everyone else was fired. GM Mike Tannenbaum, the man responsible for numerous terrible contracts over the years, was fired, as was most of Ryan’s coaching staff. Their quarterback for 2013 is still a major question mark, but it appears that Tim Tebow will not be brought back. Mark Sanchez will have to be back because of his salary, thanks to the ridiculous extension Tannenbaum gave him, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be the starter.

Quarterback

Where do I even begin here? Following the worst season of Mark Sanchez’ career in 2011, the Jets pursued Peyton Manning heavily last off-season, but he went elsewhere. The Jets apparently decided that was a good reason to give Mark Sanchez an extension, widely viewed as an apology extension, even though he showed major signs of stunted development. To make matters worse, the Jets then decided to trade a 4th round pick for Tim Tebow, less than a month after guaranteeing Sanchez’ salary for the 2012 and 2013 seasons. This allegedly killed Mark Sanchez’ confidence and he played like it, having by far the worst season of his career in 2013.

The worst of it all, they had no actual plans to use Tim Tebow. He played a few random snaps per game, generally ineffectively, and Rex Ryan said this was the plan all along. Because that’s worth a 4th round pick and a 2.5 million dollar salary. When Mark Sanchez was eventually benched for ineffectiveness, after the Jets season was already over, Head Coach Rex Ryan skipped right over 2nd string Tebow on the depth chart and promoted 3rd string quarterback Greg McElroy. This was apparently because Tebow didn’t look good in practice, but he’s never looked good in practice. That’s a widely known fact about him. The Jets had to have known that when they acquired him.

Tim Tebow may or may not have asked to be traded or cut this offseason, but either way, it’s hard to imagine him back with the Jets in 2013. The Jets have said they are “open” to moving Mark Sanchez this offseason, just like I’m “open” to going home with Miss Universe. Not happening. Because he’s owed a fully guaranteed 8.25 million in 2013, thanks to that ridiculous extension, no one will even give up a 7th round pick for him and they can’t cut him because that would be a roughly 16 million dollar cap hit. They may bring in competition for Sanchez and McElroy, but the early money is on Sanchez starting for the Jets week 1, especially with biggest supporter Rex Ryan being retained as Head Coach.

Rush Linebacker

The Jets ranked 27th in the NFL in pass rush efficiency. Aaron Maybin, who was supposed to be a big part of their pass rush, was cut midseason. Calvin Pace is expected to be a cap casualty, owed 8.31 million in his age 33 season in 2013 after a terrible year in 2012, while Bryan Thomas is a free agent heading into his age 34 season. The only player who played a significant amount of snaps at the position expected to be back in 2013 is Garrett McIntyre, who didn’t play well in a situational role this year. They need at least one new starter at the position, maybe two. Unlikely to select a quarterback in the first round because of Sanchez’ salary, they could definitely take a pass rusher at #9 overall.

Safety

Both of the Jets’ starting safeties are free agents this off-season. Yeremiah Bell is a free agent heading into his age 35 season this year, while LaRon Landry has an injury history. Despite making the Pro-Bowl, he’s a pretty marginal player now even when healthy. Injuries have sapped his explosiveness and he missed 13 tackles last season. Injuries weren’t the only reason why he was pretty unwanted on the open market last off-season.

Wide Receiver

Mark Sanchez isn’t the only overpaid player that the Jets can’t cut this off-season. Santonio Holmes is owed 11 million in 2013. He’s not worth nearly half of that, but 7.5 million of that is guaranteed and the cap hit would be too huge to cut him. I guess he’ll be back as a starter, but I don’t think they can count on him. He’s not very good and he won’t be any better coming off a major injury. He’s also caused several locker room problems.
Stephen Hill will probably be back as the other starter opposite him. He’s not very good either, but the Jets have to give the 2012 2nd round pick another chance. He was widely considered a project and you can never write off a receiver after one year. Their top receiver last year was Jeremy Kerley and he’s the only receiver they can really count on next year, so they should add another one in the mix.

Running Back

Shonn Greene is a free agent and he’s a pretty marginal talent anyway. If the Jets didn’t have so many other needs, I’d suggest they invest in an explosive running back to take some pressure off their quarterbacks, but the Jets might have to bring back Shonn Greene to continue splitting carries with Bilal Powell, a 2011 4th round pick who played well down the stretch.

Tight End

Dustin Keller was the Jets’ leading receiver in 2011, catching 65 passes for 815 yards and 5 touchdowns, but injuries limited him to 28 catches for 317 yards and 2 touchdowns in 8 games this year. He’s a free agent and the Jets should try to retain him because, when healthy, he’s their best receiving option and last year was the first year he had ever missed a game in his 5 year career.

The Jets are rumored to be interested in franchise tagging him, but he didn’t seem too keen on that idea, saying “I signed a five-year deal, that’s what I agreed to. To make somebody play a one-year deal to something they never agreed to is crazy to me. It’s not legal in any other business, so it’s still, it’s just crazy to me. So no, I definitely don’t want to be franchised.” Apparently being given close to 6 million guaranteed should be “not legal.” It’ll be interesting to see if that deters the Jets from tagging him. The last thing they need is a drawn out franchise tag saga to add to all of their other drama.

Guard

Starting guards Matt Slauson and Brandon Moore are both free agents. They need to be retained and if they can’t be, they’ll need to be replaced. Who else’s ass is Mark Sanchez going to run into? In all seriousness, both Slauson and Moore are very talented players who the Jets can’t let get away. Vladimir Ducaase, a former 2nd round pick, would probably be thrust into a starting role if either one or both leaves, but he’s struggled whenever he’s been counted on to play thus far in his NFL career. Last offseason, he could even beat out the terrible Wayne Hunter and inexperienced journeyman Austin Howard at right tackle.

Middle Linebacker

Both of the Jets’ starting middle linebackers could be cap casualties. Bart Scott is owed 6.9 million in 2013, his age 33 season, and at this point in his career, he’s only a two down run stuffer and not worth that amount. Meanwhile, David Harris was ProFootballFocus’ 48th ranked middle linebacker out of 53 last year and is owed 10.9 million in the 3rd year of a ridiculous 4 year deal he was given after the 2010 season. Demario Davis, a 2012 3rd round pick, played alright in limited action this year and is viewed as a future starter, but if they cut both, they’ll have to find someone to play next to Davis.

Offensive Tackle

Austin Howard was a great run blocker in his first year as a starter at right tackle, but he struggled some in pass protection, allowing 10 sacks. Some of that can be blamed on poor pocket awareness by the quarterbacks and he actually graded out overall positively on ProFootballFocus (though negatively as a pass blocker), but I guess he could be upgraded if they could find an upgrade. I don’t know if it’s a pressing enough need, given all of their other needs, to be addressed this offseason.

3-4 Defensive End

Mike DeVito is a free agent. He’s a key part of their run defense and their defensive end rotation with Quinton Coples and Muhammad Wilkerson. If he isn’t re-signed, he’ll need to be replaced.

Fullback

Fullback Lex Hilliard is a free agent. He was ProFootballFocus’ worst rated eligible fullback last year anyway.

Kicker

Nick Folk is also a free agent. He’s had some struggles anyway.

[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]
[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, Bills, Jets

New York Jets (6-9) at Buffalo Bills (5-10)

Aside from this being a divisional matchup, this is a completely meaningless game for these two teams. Both are out of the playoffs by a long shot and both could easily have new Head Coaches and starting quarterbacks next season. I don’t like to make big plays on games involving two teams completely out of the playoff race. There’s just no way to predict what kind of energy either side of going to come out with. Meaningless games should be completely meaningless to bettors. However, if I had to pick a side, I would take the Jets.

The first reason is that I think they’re a better team, but this line doesn’t show it. In fact, at -3.5, it says the Bills are slightly better which isn’t true. The Jets rank 26th in net points per drive, 25th in DVOA, and 25th in weighted DVOA, while the Bills rank 28th, 24th, and 24th respectively. At best, these two teams are even, but we’re getting line value with the Jets using the net points per drive method. The Jets’ is at -0.39, while the Bills are at -0.64. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that this should be a pick em.

The second reason is that the Jets, for whatever reason, dominate this “rivalry,” winning the last 6, including 5 covers, winning those 6 by an average of 16.8 points for game. The third reason is that, again, for whatever reason, the Bills always seem to struggle late in the season under Chan Gailey, going 4-10 ATS during weeks 13-17 since he took over in 2010. The final reason is that, in spite of all the above stuff, we’re getting a chance to fade the public as the public is all over the Bills. The public always loses money in the long run. Still, I can’t make it a significant play.

Public lean: Buffalo (70% range)

New York Jets 17 Buffalo Bills 16 Upset Pick +155

Pick against spread: NY Jets +3.5 (-110) 2 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#21)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Jets

Last week: 19 (-2)

Record: 6-9

Net points per drive: -0.09 (19th)

DVOA: -15.9% (25th)

Weighted DVOA: -15.6% (25th)

Studs

MLB David Harris: 7 solo tackles, 4 assists, 4 stops, allowed 1 catch for 5 yards on 2 attempts

MLB Bart Scott: 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 7 blitzes, was not thrown on

RE Quinton Coples: 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 18 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 penalty

ROLB Garrett McIntyre: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 13 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

RE Muhammad Wilkerson: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 30 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops

Duds

QB Greg McElroy: 14 of 24 for 185 yards and an interception, 1 drop, 1 throw away, 64.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 17 of 39 drop backs (11 sacks, 4 of 6, 1 throw away)

RT Austin Howard: Allowed 3 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards and a touchdown on 3 attempts

LG Matt Slauson: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 3 yards on 1 attempt

WR Jeremy Kerley: Did not catch a pass on 1 attempt on 41 pass snaps

TE Jeff Cumberland: Did not catch a pass on 1 attempt on 32 pass snaps

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

San Diego Chargers at New York Jets: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Chargers, Jets

San Diego Chargers (5-9) at New York Jets (6-8)

Ugh. How am I supposed to pick between these two teams? The Chargers have been incredibly inconsistent and the Jets are a mediocre at best team who has just been eliminated from the playoff race making a controversial move to start a former 7th round pick who has never made an NFL start. There’s a lot of conflicting stuff on both sides.

For the Jets, they’ve beaten almost every mediocre or worse team they’ve played this season and the Chargers certainly qualify. They’re 0-6 against the likes of New England (twice), Seattle, Pittsburgh, Houston, and San Francisco, but 6-2 in their other 8 games, beating Buffalo, Indianapolis, Miami, Arizona, St. Louis, and Jacksonville. Their only two losses against mediocre or worse teams were last week in Tennessee in a 5 turnover shit show and in a rematch game against the Dolphins.

Speaking of that 5 turnover shit show, Greg McElroy should be an upgrade over Mark Sanchez, but do we really know? I normally hate picking games featuring quarterbacks making their first NFL start and this is no different. I have no idea what to expect from McElroy and furthermore, I have no idea what to expect from the rest of the team. What if they just completely quit now that their season is over and their quarterback has been benched?

For the Chargers, they’re actually in a great spot as dogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be dogs. The Jets go to Buffalo next week, while the Chargers just host the Raiders. Teams are 118-61 ATS in this spot since 2008. The Chargers are also typically a good December team. They’re 22-11 ATS in week 14 or later in the Philip Rivers era, including 9-2 ATS as dogs.

We’re also getting line value with them as they rank 22nd in net points per drive at -0.23, while the Jets rank 25th at -0.38. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that the Jets should be only favored by 1. However, DVOA only backs this up somewhat as the Chargers rank 23rd in regular and 24th in weighted, while the Jets rank 24th and 25th respectively and it’s not really enough to make any pick off that.

Besides, the Chargers have also fallen flat in a bunch of games where the trends favored them. The last time they covered as anything other than touchdown plus dogs was way back in week 9 and the time before that was way back in week 4, both instances against the crappy Chiefs. They somehow pulled off a huge upset in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago, but that was when they were touchdown plus dogs and nothing at all was expected of them.

They followed that up by falling completely flat at home last week as favorites, even though it was December. Maybe here as December dogs, it’ll be different, but I don’t know. They already know their Head Coach and GM are getting fired at the end of the season. They reacted well to that news in their first game after the news broke, beating Pittsburgh, but then there was last week. What if they’ve completely quit?

They’re also 2-9 ATS as non-divisional dogs in the last 2 seasons and they are a West Coast team playing at 1 PM on the East Coast here, a situation teams generally don’t cover in. I’m going to just fade the heavy public underdog here and take the Jets and hope that the Chargers have quit and the Jets haven’t, that a quarterback change and bottoming out was good for them, but this would rank last in any confidence pools. If you actually make a play on this game, you have a problem.

Public lean: San Diego (80% range)

Sharps lean: SD 5 NYJ 2

Final thoughts: 7 people are crazy.

New York Jets 17 San Diego Chargers 13

Pick against spread: NY Jets -2.5 (-110) 1 unit

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Jets

Last week: 22 (+3)

Record: 6-8

Net points per drive: -0.38 (25th)

DVOA: -12.1% (24th)

Weighted DVOA: -15.4% (25th)

With the exception of last week’s Monday Night debacle and a game against the Dolphins (who they split the season series with), the Jets have beaten every mediocre or worse football team they’ve played this season. They finish the season with two such games against the Chargers and the Bills, but it’s tough to know what to expect from Greg McElroy.

Studs

LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 1 attempt

LG Matt Slauson: Did not allow a pressure on 27 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 2 attempts

C Nick Mangold: Did not allow a pressure on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 46 yards on 8 attempts

RG Brandon Moore: Did not allow a pressure on 39 pass block snaps, run blocked for 12 yards on 3 attempts

CB Antonio Cromartie: Allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

SS LaRon Landry: 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, allowed 1 catch for 5 yards on 2 attempts

LOLB Calvin Pace: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 20 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 4 stops

RE Quinton Coples: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 16 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 1 stop

RE Muhammad Wilkerson: 2 quarterback hurries on 28 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 5 solo tackles, 5 stops

LE Mike DeVito: 1 quarterback hurry on 15 pass rush snaps, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops

Duds

QB Mark Sanchez: 13 of 28 for 131 yards, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions, 2 drops, 1 batted pass, 41.5 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 11 of 34 drop backs (3 sacks, 3 scrambles, 4 of 5)

RT Austin Howard: Allowed 1 sack and 4 quarterback hurries on 39 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 2 yards on 1 attempt

TE Konrad Reuland: Caught 1 pass for 4 yards on 2 attempts on 18 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 2 penalties

WR Mardy Gilyard: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 20 pass snaps

WR Jeremy Kerley: Caught 1 pass for 11 yards on 3 attempts on 36 pass snaps, 0.0 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to, 1 punt return for 7 yards

CB Kyle Wilson: Allowed 5 catches for 66 yards on 7 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Jets, Titans

New York Jets (6-7) at Tennessee Titans (4-9)

The Titans are 4-9, which isn’t very good at all, but if you can believe it, they’re even worse than their record. Of their 9 losses, 5 have come by 21 or more and only one of their 4 wins have come by more than a field goal. As a result, they rank 29th in net points per drive, DVOA, and weighted DVOA. The Jets aren’t as good as their 6-7 record either, as they are 24th in net points per drive and DVOA and 25th in weighted DVOA, but the Titans don’t deserve to be favorites here.

Using the net points per drive method, the Jets should be 1.5 point favorites here. The Titans are at -0.76 in points per drive and the Jets are at -0.38. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 to Tennessee’s side for home field, you get that the Jets should be 1.5 point favorites, rather than the Titans being that.

The Jets also have the trends on their side. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites in 2011 and they host the Chargers next week. That trend becomes 116-59 ATS since 2008 when their opponent will next be dogs and the Titans have a much bigger game in Green Bay next week. When all 3 games (current, next, and opponent’s next) are non-divisional, that trend is 35-15 ATS since 2008.

Speaking of that Green Bay game, teams are 25-48 ATS as favorites before being double digit dogs, which they should be in Green Bay next week. Going off that, the Titans are in the sandwich situation. Teams are 59-85 ATS since 2008 as favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs, including 44-67 ATS as favorites of less than a touchdown. For good teams, this is a huge breather spot. For bad teams, well they don’t deserve to be favorites and the Titans fall into that latter category. It’s also worth noting that the Jets are 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) as dogs or favorites of 3 or less and 0-6 SU (2-4 ATS) as dogs of more than 3. They’re beating up on mediocre and crappy teams this season and I expect that to continue this week.

Rather than putting 3 units on the spread and 1 unit on the money line, I’m going to put all 4 on the money line. I was burned doing this a few weeks ago because the Buccaneers lost by 1 as 1.5 point dogs and I took the money line instead. However, that was just the 8th time in the last 23 years that a 1.5 point or 1 point dog had lost a game by exactly 1 point. Going into that game, since 1989, there had been 414 teams who have been favorites of less than 2. Of those 414 teams, only 7 of those teams lost by exactly 1 point, about 1.7%. I still say that was the smart move after some thought and I’m going to do that again here. It’s not worth the extra 20 cents on the dollar for something that will hurt me about 2% of the time, however terrible I feel when it does.

Public lean: Tennessee (50% range)

New York Jets 20 Tennessee Titans 16 Upset Pick +110 4 units

Pick against spread: NY Jets +1.5 (-110) 0 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#22)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Jets

Last week: 23 (+1)

Record: 6-7

Net points per drive: -0.38 (23rd)

DVOA: -8.9% (24th)

Weighted DVOA: -10.8% (25th)

The Jets are miraculously just one game out of the playoffs right now with 3 winnable games to go. I just don’t think they are a good enough football team to win all 3 and give themselves any shot at the playoffs. They can definitely win in Tennessee, where the Titans aren’t as good as their record, but a game against the Chargers, always tough in December, and a rematch in Buffalo should end in losses and end their season at 7-9.

Studs

RT Austin Howard: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 attempt

SS LaRon Landry: 10 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops, allowed 2 catches for 15 yards on 5 attempts

MLB David Harris: 7 solo tackles, 3 assists, 4 stops, 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 14 blitzes, didn’t allow a catch on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection

RE Quinton Coples: 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 1 quarterback hurry on 26 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

FS Yeremiah Bell: Allowed 1 catch for 14 yards on 2 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 3 assists, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 quarterback hurry on 3 blitzes

RE Muhammad Wilkerson: 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 38 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

ROLB Garret McIntyre: 1 quarterback hit on 22 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

LOLB Calvin Pace: 1 quarterback hit on 30 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 stop, 2 missed tackles

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Jets

New York Jets (5-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-10)

I would say this would be the shorst game of the season, but the Jets and Cardinals from last week currently hold that title. Raiders/Chiefs next week might give them a run for their money, but this is going to be a terrible game. More importantly, how the hell am I supposed to pick a side? You’d have to be reckless and degenerate to make a big play on this game. Seriously, seek help. How can you get excited about picking the Jets as road favorites or the Jaguars as dogs of fewer than 3? There aren’t even any prominent trends that make either side attractive.

Using the net points per drive method of computing real line, we are getting some line value with the Jaguars. The Jets rank 27th in net points per drive, at -0.48, while the Jaguars rank 30th at -0.80. If you take the difference and multiply by 11, the amount of drives per team per game on average, and add 3 points for home field, you get a real line of a pick em, which makes sense because how the hell can the Jets be road favorites over anyone? That line holds up to DVOA, where the Jaguars rank 30th in both regular and weighted and the Jets rank 25th in regular and 26th in weighted. Chad Henne is also an improved quarterback over Blaine Gabbert, who started for most of their season. However, it’s not enough reason for me to want to take Jacksonville. Henne is too inconsistent anyway.

Gun to my head, I’d take the Jaguars if I had to for two reasons. One, I do think a pick em line is valid, not because the formula said so, but because this is a completely toss up of a game. Given that, I’d rather get +125 on the money line with the Jaguars than the Jets -2.5. I’m going to make this play on the money line, rather than the spread, but just know that this would rank dead last in any confidence pools and if you actually make a play on this game based off this advice, you have a problem. This is not a game to risk any real money on (I do units for confidence pools and things like that, but don’t recommend making plays on all 16 games. That’s just common sense).

The second reason is that the Jets have done a terrible job of bouncing back off of wins this season, going 1-3 ATS and 0-4 SU. Those losses haven’t been pretty. Aside from a near overtime win in New England, which would have been a huge upset, their other 3 games were 27-10, 49-19, and 34-0 losses. It also doesn’t help that Sanchez is starting once again for the Jets, which means the players might just completely quit on Rex Ryan, who appears to have no clue what he’s doing. Sanchez is also without top receiver Dustin Keller.

Public lean: Jacksonville (50% range)

Sharps lean: NYJ 13 JAX 7

Final thoughts: 20 people are degenerates apparently.

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 New York Jets 12 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Jacksonville +2.5 (-110) 0 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

New York Jets: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#23)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Jets

Last week: 27 (+4)

Record: 5-7

Net points per drive: -0.48 (27th)

DVOA: -10.6% (25th)

Weighted DVOA: -11.3% (26th)

Studs

RB Shonn Greene: Rushed for 104 yards (57 yards after contact) on 24 attempts, 1 broken tackle

RT Austin Howard: Did not allow a pressure on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 4 attempts

LG Matt Slauson: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 2 attempts

CB Antonio Cromartie: Allowed 1 catch for 23 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

SS LaRon Landry: Allowed 2 catches for 8 yards on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

MLB David Harris: Allowed 1 catch for 4 yards on 2 attempts, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 14 blitzes

MLB Bart Scott: Allowed 1 catch for -1 yard on 1 attempt, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops, 2 sacks and 1 quarterback hurry on 9 blitzes

RE Muhammad Wilkerson: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hit on 26 pass rush snaps, 3 solo tackles, 4 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

C Nick Mangold: Allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 28 yards on 9 attempts

WR Chaz Schilens: Caught 2 passes for 5 yards on 4 attempts on 18 pass snaps, 1.5 YAC per catch, 1 interception when thrown to, 1 penalty

ROLB Calvin Pace: Did not record a pressure on 26 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]