Jets

Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Jets

Arizona Cardinals (4-7) at New York Jets (4-7)

I’ve started using net points per drive to compute real line. It makes sense. Net points per drive measures how much you outscore opponents by on a given drive and if you take the difference between the two team’s net points per drive and you multiply that by the average number of drives per game, 11, and add 3 points either way for home field, you can get a pretty good estimate of what the line should look like.

There are other things to consider, like strength of schedule, which is why I like to look at the DVOAs, which are net points per drive based, but take into account strength of schedule, among other things. Trends and other human element type things are also very important, but net points per drive is a good starting point.

The Jets rank 27th in the league in net points per drive at -0.64, while the Cardinals rank 21st at -0.19. If you take the difference and multiply by 11 and add 3 points to the Jets side for home field advantage, you get that Arizona should be favored here by a point. However, here’s where you need to take other stuff into account. Arizona is 22nd in DVOA, while the Jets are 26th, which closes the gap some.

The Cardinals have also lost 7 straight and are on their 3rd and worst quarterback of the season. They were actually decent when Kevin Kolb was their quarterback, but then John Skelton came in when he got hurt and he was terrible, getting benched for 6th round rookie Ryan Lindley, who is one of the worst quarterbacks I’ve ever seen at the NFL level, even worse than Skelton.

At San Diego State, he never completed more than 57% of his passes in a season against weak competition. He’s got the tools, but I don’t know how he ever could have been considered to potentially be a starting quarterback in the NFL. Against Atlanta after taking over for Skelton, he went 9 of 20 for 64 yards and then against St. Louis, he went 31 of 52 for 312 yards, but with 4 interceptions to no touchdowns and his interceptions were horrible, if you watch the replays, with two going for touchdowns.

The Cardinals also suffered a serious injury on the offensive line, losing center Lyle Sendlein, who was really their only competent offensive lineman. About Sendlein before the season, left guard Daryn Colledge said, “he would be the worst one [to lose] probably on the whole football team. He is the key cog, especially for this offensive line. He is the captain and he is our guy,” before saying the “wheels might come off” without him.

I think that’s a pretty accurate assessment and if you can believe it, this offensive line can actually get worse. Right now, they have the league’s worst pass blocking efficiency rating and rank dead last in run blocking. The only reason they aren’t starting 3 players who rank dead last at their respective positions on ProFootballFocus is because they benched left tackle D’Anthony Baptiste for 7th round rookie Nate Potter, who hasn’t been much better. Potter starting makes 2 rookies starting for them, as right tackle Bobby Massie is a 4th round rookie. And Sendlein’s loss makes them worse.

The Cardinals are also in a bad spot trends wise. They are non-conference road dogs before being divisional road dogs. Teams are a ridiculous 11-30 ATS in this spot since 2002. They go to Seattle next week. They also have to travel across the country for a 1 PM ET start on the East Coast as a West Coast team, which is normally very tough for a team, though the Cardinals have strangely had success doing this over the past couple years, upsetting the Patriots and Eagles in major upset fashion and almost doing the same to the Ravens.

The Jets, meanwhile, are actually in a good spot after being blown out by the Patriots last week. They’ve had 10 days to rest and teams are 117-97 ATS on a Sunday after a Thursday Night game since 1989. Teams tend to do well after losses by 30 or more, going 83-55 ATS in this spot since 2002, including 27-18 ATS when the previous game was divisional. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed coming off a blowout loss and if history is any indication, the Jets will definitely play well in this spot.

The Jets always seem to be at their best when they’re at their lowest point, especially this season. Remember when neither their 1st nor 2nd team offense scored a touchdown all preseason and they were the laughing stock of the football world and then week 1 they crushed the Bills? Remember when they got shut out by the 49ers and then covered in 3 straight weeks? Remember when they were 3-6, having lost 2 straight by 21+ and they had the whole “someone in the locker room called Tim Tebow terrible” controversy, and then they upset the Rams in St. Louis?

This is a similar situation. All they’ve heard all week is about how much they suck and about how Mark Sanchez ran into a butt. I think they bounce back in a similar fashion. It’s not a big play on the Jets, but they should be the right side. I just really hate taking the Jets as 5 point favorites over anyone. This is dangerously close to being six and six territory (teams who finished 6-10 or worse are 23-64 ATS since 2002 as 6 point favorites or more). I don’t understand how anyone can make a big play on this game. It’s either Jets -5 or Ryan Lindley? PUKE.

Public lean: NY Jets (60% range)

Sharps lean: NYJ 12 ARZ 4

Final update: No change. The Jets are at -6 in some places in which case I would take the Cardinals for a unit on principle because of the six and six rule, but I can’t bet heavily on either side. That would be nuts.

New York Jets 16 Arizona Cardinals 9

Pick against spread: NY Jets -4.5 (-110) 1 unit

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New York Jets: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Jets

Last week: 26 (-1)

Record: 4-7

Net points per drive: -0.54 (27th)

DVOA: -14.0% (26th)

Weighted DVOA: -13.1% (26th)

Tier 7: Terrible

Studs

LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 27 yards on 3 attempts

RG Brandon Moore: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 32 pass block snaps, run blocked for 38 yards on 6 attempts

Duds

MLB Bart Scott: Allowed 2 catches for 111 yards and a touchdown on 2 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

LOLB Calvin Pace: 1 quarterback hurry on 19 pass rush snaps, no solo tackles

RB Joe McKnight: 7 kickoff returns for 168 yards, 1 fumble, rushed for 6 yards (2 after contact) on 1 attempt

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New York Jets: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#26)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Jets

Last week: 27 (+1)

Record: 4-6

The Jets were bound to bounce back last week. Teams that lose back-to-back games by 21 or more go 36-16 ATS in their next game. However, it still isn’t a promising sign going forward. For every one good Mark Sanchez performance, he has 3 bad ones. Don’t believe me? This year he’s had 3 games in which he’s had a QB rating over 90 in which he attempted 20 or more passes (including last week). In the game immediately after the first 2, he was a combined 38 of 81 for 421 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, he led his team to 19 combined points in a 9 point loss and a 21 point loss.

In fact, excluding those 3 games and one in which he passed for just 82 yards, but still had a QB rating over 100 somehow, his season high QB rating was 66.6. This week, on short rest, he gets a red hot and pissed off Patriots team that has added a new #1 cornerback since the last time they played. They’re stuck with Sanchez into 2013 because he’s owed 8.25 million fully guaranteed, but let’s hope that once Rex Ryan and Mike Tannenbaum are fired, the new regime will send Tebow somewhere he can start, because he is one of the top-32 quarterbacks in the NFL.

Studs

QB Mark Sanchez: 15 of 20 for 178 yards and a touchdown, 2 drops, 107.8 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 4 of 24 drop backs (3 sacks, 0 of 1)

LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson: Did not allow a pressure on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

C Nick Mangold: Did not allow a pressure on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 52 yards on 13 attempts

RG Brandon Moore: Did not allow a pressure on 24 pass block snaps, run blocked for 28 yards on 6 attempts

SS Eric Smith: Allowed 2 catches for 17 yards on 7 attempts, 1 interception, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

Duds

WR Stephen Hill: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 11 pass snaps, 1 drop, 1 penalty

LE Mike DeVito: Did not record a pressure on 10 pass rush snaps, 1 missed tackle

MLB Bart Scott: 1 assist, 1 missed tackle, was not thrown on

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New England Patriots at New York Jets: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Jets, Patriots

New England Patriots (7-3) at New York Jets (4-6)

The Patriots suffered a serious injury last week, losing Rob Gronkowski for at least 4 weeks with a broken arm. Gronkowski is an incredible football player and one of the top offensive players in the NFL and his absence obviously hurts. However, no one does the “next man up” thing offensively better than the Patriots. Remember when Aaron Hernandez went down and people thought it was a big deal?

Tom Brady’s favorite receiver has always been the open one. They’ll be fine without Gronkowski for a few weeks. They still have Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez (returning from injury this week), Brandon Lloyd, and Julian Edelman. That’s probably a better receiving corps than they had when they won their 3 Super Bowls. Tom Brady has never needed great receivers and no team makes week to week adjustments for injuries better than the Patriots.

They’re averaging 35.8 points per game this season, the 2nd most in NFL history (16 games seasons), right behind…yep, the 2007 Patriots. They’ve lost 3 games by a combined 4 points and won 7 games by a combined 137, leading the league with a +133 points differential. In a way, they’re playing as well as they did in 2007, without having the pressure of being undefeated thanks to some close losses. Defensively, Aqib Talib has stabilized things in the secondary, even if only a little. Coming off a 59 point performance against the Colts, I would not want to bet against them, especially since some people are doubting them in the wake of Gronkowski’s recent injury. They thrive off that kind of thing.

Despite their offensive outburst last week, this line hasn’t moved. It was at -7 last week and it’s at -7 again this week, probably because of the Gronkowski injury. I know the Jets won too, but before that they were regarded as one of the worst teams in the NFL. One win over a 3-6 Rams team doesn’t change that. Plus, teams typically fare well the week after scoring a ton of points as teams are 23-14 ATS as favorites since 1989 after scoring 49 or more points. It’s worth noting this line opened at -5.5, but a ton of action on the favorite drove it up to -7. I hate picking a heavily backed favorite given that the odds makers have been struggling of late and seem due for a big week, but at least the line movement is going in the right direction.

I mentioned I wouldn’t want to bet against the Patriots right now. Well, it’s generally not a good idea to bet on them in a regular season game in week 10 or later. In the last 3 years, they have not dropped a single regular season game in week 10 or later, going 18-0, winning by an average of 19.3 points per game and going 12-6 ATS. On average, they cover the spread by 12 points per game over that time period (including ATS losses). Those games have also gone over the total a ridiculous 16 out of 18 times, so I like the over here as well, even on Thursday Night.

Also, while the Patriots tend to struggle at home as favorites of more than a touchdown (6-11 ATS in the last 3 seasons), they are a covering machine in all other situations going 21-8 ATS. They were big home favorites in their last 2 games (1-1 ATS), but now they are on the road. It might seem weird to say that the Patriots are more likely to cover as big road favorites than big home favorites, but it’s true. Besides, look at their road wins this year. They beat Tennessee 34-13, Buffalo 52-28, and St. Louis 45-7 (on a neutral surface).

They’ll also have plenty of motivation in this one as the Jets almost beat them last time. Belichick hasn’t forgotten. The Patriots are 9-4 ATS trying to avenge an overtime game in the Belichick era, including 2-0 ATS in same season. They’re also 6-2 ATS avenging a same season win by less than a touchdown. They won’t let themselves be caught off guard by the Jets twice in the same season. All signs point to this being another blowout win for a Patriots team that already has a whopping 4 wins by 21 or more this season. I hate betting on huge public leans and betting against line value, but it’s a small play on the Patriots.

New England Patriots 34 New York Jets 17

Pick against spread: New England -7 (-110) 2 units

Total: Over 48 (-110) 1 unit

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New York Jets at St. Louis Rams: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Jets, Rams

New York Jets (3-6) at St. Louis Rams (3-5)

Someone check me for a concussion because I really like the Jets this week. The Jets are one of two teams I have not picked to cover once this year, along with the Bengals. Yes, their fans hate me. It may seem weird that this is the week I’m going with the Jets because they seem to be at their lowest point, given all that’s happened in the last week.

However, the Jets always seem to be at their best when they’re at their lowest point. Remember when neither their 1st nor 2nd team offense scored a touchdown all preseason and they were the laughing stock of the football world and then week 1 they crushed the Bills? Remember when they got shut out by the 49ers and then covered in 3 straight weeks? With the team now at 3-6, with all their locker room dirty laundry being aired to the media over the past week, coming off a two straight losses of 21 or more, the Jets are now at their lowest point.

Speaking off 2 straight losses of 21 or more, teams are 35-16 ATS since 2002 coming off back-to-back losses of 21 or more. Teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, embarrassing, and playing for pride in that spot. The Jets are definitely embarrassed and playing for pride. They’re also undervalued and likely to be overlooked. This line has shifted from St. Louis -2 to -3.5 and the 3-5 Rams are now favorites of more than a field goal.

This is an unfamiliar situation for the Rams. How unfamiliar? Well, this is the first time they’ve been favored all year. Teams are 46-67 ATS as favorites of more than 3 after being dogs in 4 straight. This is also just the 8th time they’ve been favored since the start of the 2009 season. Since 2002, they are just 24-38 ATS as favorites.

Meanwhile, since 1989, home favorites are 97-162 ATS before being dogs in 3+ straight. The Rams probably won’t be in this unfamiliar situation again until at least 4 weeks from now when they host Minnesota, if at all the rest of the season. 2 of their next 3 are on the road and their only home game is against San Francisco, when they almost definitely won’t be favored. Meanwhile, they’re simply not good enough to be road favorites anywhere, even in Buffalo week 14.

All of these trends are basically saying that bad teams don’t do well as favorites. Well, this one also says that. Since 2008, teams are 57-81 ATS as favorites off a loss as dogs before being dogs. For good teams, a game like this would represent a breather game, a chance to get an “easy” win after a loss to a tough opponent before facing another tough opponent. For bad teams, it represents a game they probably shouldn’t be favored in. Over that time period, when the game they’re favored in is non-divisional and the other two are divisional (@ San Francisco, vs. NY Jets, @ Arizona), teams are 6-11 ATS. If we go back to 1989 to get a bigger sample size, that trend becomes 23-39 ATS.

I know the Rams didn’t actually lose in San Francisco last week, but it doesn’t seem to matter. Dogs before and after being favorites are 83-118 ATS regardless of the outcome of the first game (26-37 ATS off a win). That tie does make things a little tougher, but not that tough. Teams are 3-7 ATS off a tie and regardless of the outcome of last week’s game, the Rams would be in a bad spot this week.

I already mentioned the sandwich/breather game trend, but here are some more. Teams are 45-66 ATS off a win as double digit dogs, 23-36 ATS off a win as divisional double digit dogs. Favorites after a loss of 1-3 as 10+ dogs are 6-15 ATS since 1989. Home favorites are 10-24 ATS off a road loss in overtime, including 6-17 ATS when the previous overtime loss was as dogs.

If the Rams had won last week in overtime, they’d be in a bad spot. If the Rams had lost last week in overtime, they’d be in a bad spot. And having tied in overtime last week, well they’re still in a bad spot, albeit one with a really small sample size. After playing 75 minutes and taking the 49ers to the brink, the Rams are probably not going to focused for the lowly Jets this week, especially with another divisional road game next on the schedule.

The Jets are also in one more good spot as road dogs off of a road loss. Teams are 80-47 ATS in this spot since 2008. Finally, the Rams are a pretty strong public lean and the public always loses in the long run. There are a few reasons why this isn’t a 5-unit co-pick of the week along with Pittsburgh. For one, the NFC is 25-16 against the AFC this year. Two, we’re actually getting line value with the Rams as the yards per play differential method says they should be 6.5 point favorites and the rate of sustaining drives differential method says they should be 4 point favorites and that’s not taking into account that the Rams now have Danny Amendola and Rodger Saffold healthy, two things that really helped against San Francisco. They’re now 5-1 ATS with Amendola this year and 0-3 ATS without him.

Three, there’s always a chance the Jets are looking forward to a Thanksgiving game with the Patriots immediately after this one, but they simply can’t afford to lose another game if they want to maintain any hope of making the playoffs and I can’t imagine them looking past the Rams having been embarrassed in their last 2 games. They’re playing for pride and always do well at their lowest point, while the Rams are in an unfamiliar spot as favorites could easily overlook this lowly non-conference opponent off a grueling game against San Francisco with another divisional matchup on schedule next. It’s a 4-unit pick.

Public lean: NY Jets (70% range)

Sharps lean: STL 17 NYJ 3

Final update: Sharps do have this at -3, but that probably isn’t the reason why there’s a huge sharps lean on the Rams. I’m going to disagree with them though.

New York Jets 20 St. Louis Rams 16 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: NY Jets +3.5 (-110) 4 units

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New York Jets: Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#27)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Jets

Last week: 27 (-2)

Record: 3-6

I’ve been wondering for a few weeks, at least, why Rex Ryan hadn’t benched Mark Sanchez for Tim Tebow. It didn’t make any sense to me why (assuming he had brought Tebow in to be an alternative to Mark Sanchez) he hadn’t swapped out Sanchez, who is completing 52% of his passes for a 3-6 team, for his alternative. Well, he answered that question this week by saying, “we never brought him on here to be the starting quarterback.”

I used to just think he was stubborn, but now it appears he is a full on moron. You spent a 4th round pick and you’re paying 2.5 million dollars to someone to protect the punter and get 3-5 random touches per game? What? Even the biggest Tebow hater would have to agree that investing all of those resources in him just for this purpose is pretty moronic. It appears Rex Ryan is sticking with Mark Sanchez as first mate on this sinking ship the rest of the way and the captain should go down with the ship as well. Rex Ryan deserves what’s probably coming to him at the end of the season. Hopefully they replace him with someone who will give Tebow a shot (or trade him someone like Jacksonville). Jon Gruden is rumored to be interested in returning to coaching and he might have the biggest Tebowner of all time.

Studs

LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson: Did not allow a pressure on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 4 yards on 2 attempts

LG Matt Slauson: Did not allow a pressure on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 16 yards on 4 attempts

RG Brandon Moore: Did not allow a pressure on 31 pass block snaps, run blocked for 13 yards on 2 attempts

RE Muhammad Wilkerson: 1 quarterback hit and 1 quarterback hurry on 22 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 3 assists, 4 stops

LE Mike DeVito: 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 19 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 4 stops

ROLB Bryan Thomas: 2 quarterback hits and 1 quarterback hurry on 16 pass rush snaps, 5 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

Duds

QB Mark Sanchez: 9 of 22 for 124 yards and an interception, 2 drops, 2 batted passes, 1 hit as thrown, 53.5 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 5 of 25 drop backs (3 sacks, 1 of 2, 1 hit as thrown)

RB Shonn Greene: Rushed for 58 yards (28 after contact) on 15 attempts, caught 1 pass for 5 yards on 1 attempt

FB Lex Hilliard: Caught 1 pass for 9 yards on 2 attempts, 1 drop, run blocked for 26 yards on 5 attempts, allowed 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 2 pass block snaps, rushed for 0 yards (1 after contact) on 1 attempt

TE Dustin Keller: Caught 3 passes for 47 yards on 5 attempts on 23 pass snaps, 5.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop, 1 interception when thrown to, 2 penalties

WR Stephen Hill: Did not catch a pass on 2 attempts on 25 pass snaps

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New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks: Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 10 NFL Picks, Jets, Seahawks

New York Jets (3-5) at Seattle Seahawks (5-4)

I’m so glad there isn’t a heavy public lean on Seattle this week. As some of you may know, the public killed the odds makers in unprecedented fashion last week, going 12-2 and winning every heavy lean. The odds makers aren’t going broke or anything. They killed the public for the first 8 weeks of the season and are still up on the year, but given that, I would be very nervous to bet on a heavy public lean this week because the odds makers, regardless of whether or not you believe in conspiracy theories, always have a way of bouncing back.

The reason I’m so glad there isn’t a heavy public lean on Seattle is because I love them this week. There’s a slight public lean, but not enough to deter me from making a big play on them. First off, Seattle is amazing at home. They’re undefeated at home this year. Dating back to 2007, they’re 31-14 ATS at home and this year’s team might be their most talented team in that stretch, part of the reason why they are 5-0 ATS at home this year. Since 2007, they are 15-6 ATS as home favorites and 10-1 ATS at home after a home game.

They balance everything out by going 16-30 ATS on the road in that stretch. For that reason, I’ve always said that the Seahawks should have to lay more than the traditional extra 3 points at home (and get more than 3 on the road). They outscore opponents by 4.4 points at home and get outscored by 8.3 on the road. Average those out and we should really be using something like 6 points in each direction for home field advantage when figuring out the real line for Seattle’s game. It’s such a big disparity.

This line is -6. The yards per play method of computing real line says this line should be -7 (taking into account just 3 points for home field) and the rate of sustaining drives method says this line should be -6. Even before you add what’s a necessary 6 points to Seattle’s total rather than 3 for home field, we are getting some line value with the Seahawks. Meanwhile, the original line of -6, using this new number for home field in Seattle’s game, suggests these two teams are even, which isn’t true at all.

Speaking of this line being -6, home favorites of 6 or more are 45-15 ATS before a bye and Seattle goes into a bye next week. When you take out 10+ home favorites from the equation, that trend becomes 33-8 ATS for home favorites of 6-9.5 before a bye. Home teams tend to be extra focused and take care of business going into a bye when they have a clear talent advantage over the opponent and don’t have to cover a double digit margin and that’s the case here. I know the Jets are coming off a bye, but that doesn’t seem to matter. Since 1989, home favorites of 6-9.5 are 6-3 ATS before a bye when their opponent is coming off a bye. It’s a small sample, but there’s certainly nothing to deter me. It’s a big play on Seattle.

Public lean: Seattle (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if NY Jets covers)

Sharps lean: NYJ 18 SEA 4

Final update: Once again going to disagree with the sharps. Seattle is great at home, great at home off a home game, and 6-9.5 points home favorites dominate going into a bye. Besides, the odds makers need favorites to cover (to continue to close the favorites/dogs disparity) and they also need to make their money back. Any favorite not publicly backed (this one has even action) is a good idea.

Seattle Seahawks 27 New York Jets 10

Pick against spread: Seattle -6 (-110) 4 units

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New York Jets: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#24)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Jets

Last week: 24 (-1)

Record: 3-5

I have no idea why they haven’t benched Mark Sanchez for Tim Tebow yet. Mark Sanchez is completing 53% of his passes. Only Brandon Weeden has a worse adjusted QB rating. The team is 3-5. They brought Tebow in to be an alternative for Sanchez if he struggled right? Well he’s struggling right now. What was the point of bringing him in if you’re not going to turn to him if the incumbent struggles? It couldn’t have been just to be a special teams decoy…right? Even if you don’t think Tebow can play quarterback, you have to agree with that. He did make a mistake by going to the Jets instead of the Jaguars. He’d be starting in Jacksonville right now.

Studs

RG Brandon Moore: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 62 pass block snaps, run blocked for 20 yards on 4 attempts

LG Matt Slauson: Did not allow pressure on 43 pass block snaps, run blocked for 7 yards on 3 carries

WR Clyde Gates: Caught 7 passes for 82 yards on 10 attempts on 31 pass snaps, 1.1 YAC per catch

CB Antonio Cromartie: Allowed 2 catches for 2 yards on 2 attempts, 1 penalty, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

Duds

WR Jeremy Kerley: Caught 5 passes for 43 yards on 10 attempts on 56 pass snaps, 5.4 YAC per catch, 1 drop

WR Stephen Hill: Caught 2 passes for 29 yards on 7 attempts on 55 pass snaps, 4.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Kyle Wilson: Allowed 2 catches for 48 yards on 3 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

LE Mike DeVito: Did not record a pressure on 16 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

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Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets

Miami Dolphins (3-3) at New York Jets (3-4)

The Jets beat the Dolphins in Miami earlier this year, therefore they should beat them in New York right? Well, that seems to be what the public thinks as the Jets are a heavily public lean, but I disagree for several reasons. The first one is that Darrelle Revis went down late in that game. The Jets have done a great job of bouncing back from that loss and their subsequent 34-0 home loss to the 49ers the following week and have covered in 3 straight.

Antonio Cromartie is playing out of his mind right now since Revis went down, allowing 7 catches for 109 yards on 22 attempts, with 1 touchdown, 2 interceptions, and 4 pass deflections. The defensive and offensive fronts are playing like they have before, allowing the team’s run offense and run defense to improve. However, that doesn’t mean they won’t miss Revis, especially against a Dolphin team that hasn’t been playing too badly themselves since that game, going 2-1 SU and ATS with that one loss in overtime to the Cardinals and wins against the Bengals in Cincinnati and the Rams in Miami.

Besides, the Dolphins are in a good spot given that their previous matchup was an overtime loss. Teams are 14-8 ATS when trying to avenge a divisional overtime loss since 2008. They’re also 49-31 ATS trying to avenge a divisional loss of 1-3 points in that same period, including 27-16 ATS when the revenge game is a same season game.

On the other side, the Jets are in a bad spot. Favorites after a loss of 1-3 as 10+ dogs are 6-14 ATS since 1989. They’ll be awfully flat after coming so close to pulling a huge upset against a division rival. Meanwhile, home favorites are 10-23 ATS off a road loss in overtime, including 6-16 ATS when the previous overtime loss was as dogs.

We’re also getting line value with the Dolphins. Both measures of “real” line suggest this should be a pick em as Miami ranks 18th in yards per play differential and 17th in rate of sustaining drives differential, while the Jets rank 27th in both. We’re getting points with the better team in the better spot. We’re also getting a chance to fade a heavy public lean as the public likes the Jets. I’ve mentioned many times before I like favorites this week because I expect the favorite/dog disparity to close up (dogs are 63-39 ATS and neither dogs nor favorites have finished more than 10 games above .500 ATS in least at the last decade). However, it’s perfectly fine to make a big play on a dog as long as they aren’t a heavy public dog.

Public lean: NY Jets (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Sharps lean: MIA 22 NYJ 6

Final update: 2nd biggest sharps lean of the week. I’m going to add a unit. Action on Jets, but line has fallen.

Miami Dolphins 20 New York Jets 13 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Miami +2.5 (-110) 4 units

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