Jets

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins: Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 3 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Jets

New York Jets (1-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-1)

Yeah, how’s that Jets’ offense doing now? After scoring 48 in the opener in a heavily defense and special teams aided effort, the Jets scored just 10 points last week and Mark Sanchez, who was 19 of 27 for 266 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a pick in the opener, completed just 10 of 27 for 138 yards and a touchdown against a Steeler defense missing Troy Polamalu and James Harrison. In actuality, Sanchez is probably not as bad as he looked last week, but he’s not as good as he looked week 1 either.

This week, his matchup is once again going to be hard. The Dolphins have a nice defense, as they did last year, when they ranked 6th in scoring defense. The thing they do best in run the stuff, which they rank 1st in the league at. And they haven’t been facing marginally talented backs. First they faced Houston’s dynamic duo of Arian Foster and Ben Tate and last week they shut down Darren McFadden. Shonn Greene is significantly less talented than them, so Sanchez is going to be in a lot of 2nd and 3rd and longs in this one.

The biggest difference for the Dolphins from week 1 to week 2 was the offense. In Week 1, the defense played well, but their offense’s ineptitude and high amount of turnovers made it just too hard for their defense. Last week, Ryan Tannehill played much better, they minimized the turnovers, moved the chains, scored points and made life a lot easier for their talented defense. If they can do that, they might surprise a few people.

However, that’s easier said than done. Tannehill’s performance was aided by Reggie Bush’s awesome effort on the ground as he rushed for 172 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Jets’ typically have a good run defense, but they were run on with ease by CJ Spiller in the opener. However, after what Spiller did to Kansas City last week, that’s not looking so bad anymore and the Jets were much better against the run last week with stud nose tackle Sione Pouha in the lineup. Bush probably won’t have as good of a game and besides, Tannehill is a rookie, so it’s hard to trust him just yet.

In the opener, the Jets were without Pouha, but last week, they were without Darrelle Revis. They’ll get him back. Tannehill got to deal with the Raiders cornerback trio of Patrick Lee, Shawntae Spencer, and Joselio Hanson last week. Facing a tougher secondary, he should find life very hard once again, especially with a mediocre receiving corps. The good news is that the Jets rank 31st in pass rush efficiency (the Raiders are 32nd), so Tannehill should have time in the pocket like he did last week (pressured on 9 of 33 drop backs), even if they can’t establish the same running game as they did last week.

This figures to be a low scoring defensive battle overall. This line moved about 2 points from last week, so there’s a bit of an overreaction to Miami’s blowout win over the Raiders, but I still think the Dolphins are a little underrated. Their points per play differential is 0.6 points better than the Jets, who rank 26th in that statistic, which is a significant difference. Unless their offense puts up a total stinker again like they did week 1, their defense should be able make life tough for Mark Sanchez.

I know it’s risky to bet on Tannehill to be serviceable, but it is week 3 and rookie quarterbacks who start week 1 are 8-1 SU and 8-1 ATS since 2008 week 3. Besides, the Jets could find themselves caught in a breather game this week. Favorites before being dogs after losing as dogs are 49-77 ATS since 2008. The Jets host San Francisco next week. It’s only a small bet because of Tannehill and because there’s a chance that the Jets could do to the Dolphins exactly what they did to the Bills week 1, dominate them defensively, dominate the field position battle, get easy scores, and then run up the score on a defense that is tired and quits. It’s a tough game plan to rely on, but it’s a possibility. One note, pay extra for field goal protection (+3), if you can.

Public lean: NY Jets (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Miami covers)

Miami Dolphins 17 New York Jets 16 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Miami +3 (-125) 2 units

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New York Jets: Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Jets

Last week: 19 (+0)

Record: 1-1

Yeah, how’s that Jets’ offense doing now? After scoring 48 in the opener in a heavily defense and special teams aided effort, the Jets scored just 10 points last week and Mark Sanchez, who was 19 of 27 for 266 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a pick in the opener, completed just 10 of 27 for 138 yards and a touchdown against a Steeler defense missing Troy Polamalu and James Harrison. In actuality, Sanchez is probably not as bad as he looked last week, but he’s not as good as he looked week 1 either. The Jets, meanwhile, rank 26th in the league in yards per play differential.

Studs

LG Matt Slauson: Did not allow a pressure on 29 pass block plays, run blocked for 37 yards on 3 attempts

LT D’Brickashaw Ferguson: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 35 pass block plays, run blocked for 4 yards on 1 carry

RE Muhammad Wilkerson: Allowed 3 quarterback pressures on 28 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

Duds

QB Mark Sanchez: 10 of 27 for 138 yards and 1 touchdown, 1 drop, 1 throw away, 61.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 11 of 29 drop backs (2 sacks, 3 of 9)

RT Austin Howard: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback pressures on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked 9 yards on 2 attempts

WR Santonio Holmes: Caught 3 passes for 28 yards and a touchdown on 9 targets on 34 pass plays, 3.0 YAC per catch

RB Shonn Greene: Rushed for 23 yards (11 after contact) on 11 carries, allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 9 pass block snaps

WR Stephen Hill: Didn’t catch a pass on 2 attempts on 29 pass snaps

CB Antonio Cromartie: Allowed 5 catches for 77 yards and a touchdown on 5 attempts, 3 solo tackles

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Jets rule out Darrelle Revis and Dustin Keller, expect Sione Pouha back

stevenlourie Jets, News

The Jets got a surprising 48-28 victory over the Bills in their opener, but improving to 2-0 may prove to be very tough for them, especially without their top defensive player, Darrelle Revis, who has been ruled out for this week’s clash with the Steelers with a concussion. In his absence, Kyle Wilson will start and cover Antonio Brown, one of the AFC’s premier receivers, while Antonio Cromartie will be on Mike Wallace.

Brown has been the Steelers’ top receiver over their last 10 games, including playoffs, catching 44 passes for 821 yards, while Wallace has caught 36 passes for 456 yards over that same period. Wallace, still working his way into the system after missing most of the offseason with a holdout, will continue to function as primarily a deep decoy, opening things up underneath. With Wallace having to deal with Antonio Cromartie this week, with Brown being covered primarily by a backup, expect Brown to once again lead the Steelers in receiving. The good news for the Jets is the get Sione Pouha back from injury. Without their stud run stuffing nose tackle, the Jets surrendered 195 yards on 26 carries on the ground to the Bills last week.

As for the Jets’ offense, in the opener, they scored 48 points, but 14 of those were by defense and special teams, and the other 34 were aided by strong field position. The Jets had the 11th most yards in the league last week, while having the 12th most time of possession. All of a sudden, that offensive “explosion” doesn’t sound so good. There’s also the issue of Mark Sanchez’ inconsistencies; those don’t go away just because he had one nice game, especially since his top receiver is a 2nd round rookie, who by his nature will be inconsistent.

Sanchez will also be hurt this week by the absence of tight end Dustin Keller with injury and he won’t find live as easy because their defense won’t dominate the Steelers’ offense like they did the Bills’, especially without Revis. The Steelers’ defense, meanwhile, provides a much tougher test for the Jets’ offensively than the Bills did last week, even without James Harrison and possibly Troy Polamalu. Meanwhile, the Steelers are a much better team at home than on the road, where they lost in Denver last week. Last year, they were -22 on the road last year and +120 at home. Back home, they should have a bounce back game, especially since they won’t be playing a no huddle offense in high altitude.

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Tim Tebow could ask for trade from Jets?

stevenlourie Jets, News

There was a media stir created this week when the New York Daily News reported that an NFL source told them that Tim Tebow could ask for a trade at the end of the season. The media goes crazy over Tim Tebow even when there’s nothing newsworthy going on with him, so you can imagine how they reacted once they found out that something newsworthy actually might be going on with him.

However, I believe this is all just media hype and possibly a completely made up story. When the Broncos traded Tebow, they gave him a choice between the interested parties and he chose the Jets (over the Jaguars) because he thought they gave him the best chance to start long term. I highly doubt that’s changed after just 1 game. And frankly, if Tebow no longer thinks he can beat out Mark Sanchez, you have to wonder who he does think he can beat out. Sanchez had a good game last week, but his career history has been generally mediocre and inconsistent. He could easily fall flat on his face this week against Pittsburgh. This is a non-story right now and I still expect Tebow to eventually be the starter in New York, once the team starts struggling.

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New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers: Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 2 NFL Picks, Jets, Steelers

New York Jets (1-0) at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1)

If I had remembered how bad the Steelers were on the road last year, I probably would not have picked them in Denver. Seriously, look at this, lose by 28 in Baltimore, win by 3 in Indianapolis, lose by 7 in Houston, win by 12 in Arizona, win by 7 in Cincinnati, win by 4 in Kansas City, lose by 17 in San Francisco, win by 4 in Cleveland. 3 good teams beat them, 3 bad teams hung with them, the only impressive wins were by 12 in Arizona and by 7 in Cincinnati and even those weren’t that impressive, and then of course there was the overtime playoff loss to the Broncos. This team was -22 on the road last year and +120 at home.

The good news for the Steelers, they return home this week. They also return James Harrison from injury and get back Ryan Clark, who can’t play in thin mountain air because of a genetic condition. That will help this defense, as will the fact that they won’t be playing against a no huddle offense in thin mountain air. It also didn’t help that last week was just their first game back. They looked gassed for most of the Broncos’ game, especially once the Broncos went true no huddle. This week, they won’t see a lot of no huddle and they’ll be playing back at home and at sea level. This is a very talented defense; last week just seemed to be a bad situation for them. Remember, they were the #1 scoring defense in 2011 despite key injuries and despite a league low 15 turnovers, something that almost certainly won’t happen again this year.

This week, they also won’t be playing an offensive juggernaut like the Broncos were. The Jets may have looked like an offensive juggernaut last week, exploding for 48 points after failing to score a touchdown with either their first or second team offense all preseason. However, that’s a little misleading. 14 of those points were scored by their defense or special teams and they definitely benefitted from consistently great field position, starting their 9 drives on the 35.1 yard line on average, a big part of the reason why they were able to score 4 touchdowns and kick 2 field goals. They actually only had 384 yards, the 11th highest total on the week.

On top of all that, the Bills’ defense just seemed to quit after they got down big early. The Jets got up 21-0 early on the strength of a 61 yard touchdown drive, a 52 yard touchdown drive, and a punt return touchdown and the Bills just seemingly gave up after that. That’s why I call their offensive performance a defensive aided offensive performance. The defense gave them great field position all night, especially early, and allowed the Jets to work with short fields against a Bills defense that had given up after getting down big early. Their offense scored 34 points and had 384 yards largely because of that. I’m not trying to completely sell the offense short. They played a very good game and surprised a lot of people, but they had a lot of help from the defense, who was able to capitalize on Ryan Fitzpatrick’s terrible game. Their offense problems aren’t totally solved and they’re going to have trouble beating real teams with real quarterbacks, which the Steelers definitely are.

The other issue is just offensive consistency. Mark Sanchez has had good games in the past, but one of his biggest issues has been consistency. It’s for that reason that his career QB rating is pretty mediocre, 74.2. He’s completed 55.6% of his career passes for an average of 6.8 YPA and 58 touchdowns to 52 interceptions. He doesn’t magically become a better quarterback just because he had a good game. It also doesn’t help that his top receiver is a 2nd round rookie, Stephen Hill, who, by his very nature as a rookie, will also be inconsistent this season. Was their offense impressive last week? Yes. Do I expect it to continue? No, especially not against the Steelers’ defense.

Unless the Steelers’ offense completely implodes like the Bills’ did last week, the Jets offense will have a harder time scoring points this week, especially against one of the top defenses in the league. I don’t expect the Steelers’ offense to implode, especially since the Jets could be without their top defensive player, Darrelle Revis, who suffered a concussion last week and will need to be cleared before game time if he wants to play.

The Jets’ performance last week and, to a lesser extent, the Steelers’ performance last week has skewed this line a lot. Before last week, this line probably would have been something like -9 in favor of the Steelers. Instead, it’s -5.5. That suggests that the Jets are only 2.5 points worse than the Steelers (add 3 for home field advantage) and I don’t think that’s true, especially with Revis’ status in doubt. There’s a lot of line value here. The Steelers should bounce back at home, with 2 defensive starters returning, with a better matchup for their defense (no thin air, very little no huddle), while the Jets’ offensive performance last week was defensive aided and probably a fluke.

Not only is there line value, but the Jets’ are a publicly backed underdog, which I love betting against, especially with the line dropping even as money goes on the Jets, which is one of the signs of a trap line. The odds makers seem to be playing off public overreaction, which I’m not going to fall into. On top of all this, Mike Tomlin is 15-9 ATS off a loss since taking over in 2007, while the Steelers’ in general are 23-15 ATS off a loss since 2004, when Ben Roethlisberger took over as starting quarterback (1-0 without him, 22-15 ATS with him), and they have covered in their last 8 such instances. The Steelers are one of my favorite plays of the week.

Public lean: NY Jets (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Pittsburgh covers)

Update: I’m not quite as confident in this pick as I was before. James Harrison was surprisingly ruled out for the 2nd straight week, while Troy Polamalu did not practice Friday. The latter is their single most important defensive player. The Jets, however, will also be without their most important defensive player as Darrelle Revis has been ruled out. Their chances of winning without him are pretty slim.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: Pittsburgh -6 (-105) 2 units

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New York Jets: Week 2 NFL Power Rankings (#19)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 2 NFL Power Rankings, Jets

Last week: 23 (+4)

Record: 1-0

The Jets didn’t score a touchdown with their 1st or 2nd team offense all preseason and then they score 48 against the Bills week 1? What the hell? Well, all of their offensive problems are not solved. They may have scored 48, but 14 of those were scored by the defense or special teams and several other scores were helped by great field position as a result of Ryan Fitzpatrick’s ineptitude. Those 48 points don’t tell the whole story. The Jets’ yardage total ranked just 11th in the league last week. Good, but not great. Plus, once the Bills got down big, their defense just quit. Something tells me it’ll be different when they go to Pittsburgh this week. Mark Sanchez is still a quarterback with a mediocre career QB rating throwing to a weak group of receivers, led by a raw 2nd round rookie who will be predictably inconsistent on a week to week basis.

NY Jets

Studs

QB Mark Sanchez: 19 of 27 for 266 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception, 1 throw away, 1 spike, 1 drop, 113.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured 8 times

WR Jeremy Kerley: 4 catches for 45 yards and a touchdown on 4 targets on 18 pass plays, 0.8 YAC per catch, 1 punt return for 68 yards and a touchdown

CB Darrelle Revis: Allowed 2 completions for 14 yards on 7 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 4 tackles and 1 stop on 24 run plays

CB Antonio Cromartie: Allowed 2 completions for 17 yards on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 2 solo tackles on 27 run plays

K Nick Folk: 9 kickoffs for an average of 71.8 yards per, 4 touchbacks, average starting position of 20.1, 2/2 on FGs (25, 39)

Duds

LG Matt Slauson: Allowed 1 quarterback hit on 29 pass block snaps, run blocked for 10 yards on 4 carries

RB Shonn Greene: 94 yards (73 after contact) and a touchdown on 27 carries, 2 fumbles, 1 broken tackle

FS LaRon Landry: Allowed 4 completions for 60 yards on 4 attempts, 8 solo tackles, 2 stops, and 3 missed tackles on 30 run snaps, 2 quarterback hits on 3 blitzes

MLB Bart Scott: 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, and 4 missed tackles on 30 run plays

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Jets expect Dustin Keller to play, but not Sione Pouha

stevenlourie Jets, News

When the Jets take on the Bills this week, tight end Dustin Keller, who has been limited in practice, is expected to play, but nose tackle Sione Pouha will not. Keller’s presence will be a good thing because he led this miserable receiving corps in receiving last year, but Rex Ryan didn’t sound too confident about his chances to be 100% saying, “We’ll see how much it will limit him. I’m not sure, but he practiced today.” The last thing they need is their best receiver to be less than 100%. Santonio Holmes is also nursing some injury problems and Stephen Hill, their 2nd round rookie, is incredibly raw, though it’s not like Mark Sanchez would be able to get the most out of them anyway.

The Jets have a good defense and so do the Bills, so this should be a defensive, low scoring game, which is why Pouha’s absence is significant. Pouha was ProFootballFocus’ #1 defensive tackle last year. No nose tackle stuffs the run like him. 2011 3rd round pick Kenrick Ellis will step into the lineup for him, but it’ll almost definitely be a noticeable downgrade. The Bills talented duo of Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller should be able to run on a normally stout Jets defense, 7th in the league last year.

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Buffalo Bills at New York Jets Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 1 NFL Picks, Bills, Jets

Buffalo Bills (0-0) at New York Jets (0-0)

Buy tickets for this game

I identified Buffalo as one of my underrated teams coming into the season. They were 5-2 last year before injuries struck and averaging 30.1 points per game. Then Fitzpatrick, who was 155 of 229 (67.7%) for 1739 yards (7.6 YPA), 14 touchdowns, and 7 interceptions through 7 games, broke some ribs which hampered his ability to play for the rest of the season, as he finished by completing 198 of 340 (58.2%) for 2093 yards (6.2 YPA), 10 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions, leading the offense to 18.1 points per game.

They also lost key members of their offensive line to injury shortly after that, which is important because up until that point, they were the league’s best offensive line, allowing just 8 sacks, 13 quarterback hits, and 28 quarterback pressures in their first 9 games. Fitzpatrick has proven he can make throws and move the chains when he has time, but he threw 8 interceptions to 2 touchdowns under pressure last year and his under pressure accuracy percentage (doesn’t count drops, throw aways, hit as throwns, spikes, or batted passes) was 53.3%, 3rd worst in the NFL. Eric Wood is back, but Demetress Bell is not, instead being replaced by 2nd round rookie Cordy Glenn. If he can hold up, Fitzpatrick should have a solid year. And I haven’t even mentioned Fred Jackson, who looked like an MVP candidate through 10 games before getting hurt.

Now, Fitzpatrick is obviously not a proven commodity. There’s a chance his 7 game stretch last year was just a fluke, but he probably isn’t as bad as he was in their final 9 games either and as long as he is solid, the Bills should be able to field a competitive team. They have two great running backs in Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller, a great offensive line, and a much improved defense. Only 2 teams had fewer than the 29 sacks they had last year and 9 of those 29 sacks came in one game against Washington’s terrible offensive line. No one had more than 6 sacks and only 3 players had more than 3 sacks.

Now they add Mario Williams, one of the best pass rushers in the league, Mark Anderson, who had had 15 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 36 quarterback pressures on 420 pass rush snaps last season, an incredible 13.6% rate. They also return Kyle Williams, ProFootballFocus’ #1 defensive tackle in 2010, to a line that already had Marcell Dareus, the 2nd pick in the 2011 NFL Draft. He should be even better in his 2nd year in the league and all of a sudden, the Bills have one of the best defensive lines in the league and a very solid defense.

That defense should continue to stifle a Jets offense that scored just 1 touchdown all preseason and that was with their 3rd team offense against a 3rd team defense (the guy who caught it was a final cut). You can argue that Tebow’s performance was a fluke and that he’ll be better in real games in a system he fits better, but you can’t argue that Sanchez’ was and he’s still the starting quarterback. Sanchez was a very overrated quarterback over the first 2 years of his career and was exposed last season. He’s completed 55.3% of his passes for 6.5 YPA and 55 touchdowns to 51 interceptions in his career and actually has a worse career QB rating than Tebow, who has the lower completion percentage, but the higher YPA and better TD/INT rate.

He might even be worse this season for two reasons. The former is his confidence. He was reportedly rattled and “floored” when the Jets traded for Tebow, according to receiver Santonio Holmes. That’s not what you want to see. The latter reason is his receiving corps. I know they were bad last season, but they look even worse this season. Santonio Holmes can’t stay healthy and 2nd round rookie Stephen Hill is incredibly raw. If there’s one area where the Bills’ defense is susceptible, it’s at cornerback with a rookie and a 2nd year player starting, but the Jets don’t have the receiving talent at all to take advantage.

The Bills should win the battle upfront defensively with their great defensive line, in addition to winning the battle in the secondary. Sanchez is really bad under pressure. He took a sack on 23.8% of pressured snaps last year, 4th worst in the league, and his under pressure accuracy percentage of 49.0% was dead last in the league. The Jets actually have a decent offensive line, except right tackle Austin Howard, but Sanchez makes them look worse than they are. The Bills’ defensive line will also to that to them.

The Jets best chance of winning this game is if they can establish the run. The Bills shouldn’t be nearly as susceptible to the run as they were last year, when they ranked 27th in YPC, because of their improved defensive line and generally strong front 7. Besides, it’s not like the Jets have the running back talent to effectively run a conservative, run heavy offense, at least not until Tebow becomes the starting quarterback, functions as a much needed 2nd running back, and opens things up on the ground for Shonn Greene the way he did for Willis McGahee last year.

The Jets have a very good defense that should be able to keep the Bills’ offense in check, but I like the Bills to make enough plays come out victorious here. The Jets don’t have the kind of pass rush to beat Buffalo’s great offensive line and a healthy Fitzpatrick should be able to move the chains with consistency, aided by a good running game. Besides, I’m basically going to be betting on my underrated teams blindly until the spreads catch up or the teams prove me wrong. This spread is not accurate saying these two teams are evenly matched (granted, with juice).

Buffalo Bills 17 New York Jets 10 Upset Pick +120

Pick against spread: Buffalo +3 (-135) 2 units

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New York Jets Final Roster Analysis

stevenlourie Final Roster Analysis, Jets

Quarterbacks

Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow were the obvious locks. Sanchez will begin the season as the starter and Tebow will serve in a more limited kind of swiss army knife role, but Tebow could eventually get the starting job this season. Because of how shaky both looked in the preseason, the Jets kept Greg McElroy as their 3rd string quarterback. McElroy was actually the only one of the 3 to lead a touchdown drive all preseason, but he’ll need both Sanchez and Tebow to try and fail as regular season starters to get a start.

Running backs

The Jets decided to keep only 3 running backs even though they are going run heavy because the Jets like Tebow’s running ability and they, for whatever reason, believe in Shonn Greene as a feature back on a run heavy team. Former 4th round picks Bilal Powell (2011) and Joe McKnight (2010) could push him during the season, but both really struggled last year. Powell won the primary backup job in Training Camp and the preseason and will see action on passing downs.

McKnight will have a limited role on offense, if he has one at all, but he’s the team’s starting kick returner. John Conner returns as the starting fullback. Terrance Ganaway, a hybrid running back/fullback who scored the Jets’ only touchdown this offseason, was waived, though they were unable to put the 6th round rookie on the practice squad because the Rams claimed him.

Receiving Corps

Santonio Holmes, by virtue of his guaranteed salary, and Stephen Hill, by virtue of his status as a 2012 2nd round draft pick, were locks in the receiving corps, as was tight end Dustin Keller, their leading receiver last year. The Jets also kept 2011 5th round pick Jeremy Kerley, who saw some time in the slot last season and Chaz Schilens, an injury prone free agent acquisition. 7th round rookie Jordan White was waived and added to the practice squad, but Patrick Turner, a bust of a 2009 3rd round pick in Miami, made the roster.

Turner saw some action for the Jets last year, but they obviously hope the guys above him on the depth chart on do their jobs so he doesn’t have to see action. The Jets also signed another Dolphins bust, 2011 4th round pick Clyde Gates. Gates was a final cut of the Dolphins with a new regime coming in, obviously not a good sign for his career, but the Jets took a flier on his speed. It’s worth mentioning that offensive coordinator Tony Sparano drafted Gates as Head Coach of the Dolphins last year. He’ll often be a gameday inactive most likely.

Having lost Matthew Mulligan this offseason to the Rams and Josh Baker on IR, 2010 undrafted free agent Jeff Cumberland will be the #2 tight end and serve as primarily a blocker. The Jets also kept Konrad Reuland over Hayden Smith and Dedrick Epps at tight end, making Smith and Epps final cuts and signing Reuland after the 49ers made him a final cut. He’ll likely be a gameday inactive frequently unless he can carve out a role on special teams.

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Offensive Line

Starters D’Brickashaw Ferguson (left tackle), Nick Mangold (center) and Brandon Moore (right guard) were locks, as were Matt Slauson and Jason Smith, whose salaries were fully guaranteed. Slauson will start at left guard, while Smith will be a reserve at right tackle and a swing tackle if he can stay healthy. He could also beat out starter Austin Howard, another roster lock, eventually once the recent acquisition learns the playbook and the timing with the offensive line. Vladimir Ducaase was also a roster lock because of his draft status as a 2010 2nd round pick.

That left 2 or 3 spots open on the line, depending on how many linemen the Jets kept. The Jets kept 9, meaning there were 2 spots left, likely one outside and one inside. Those spots went to Dennis Landholt (left tackle) and Caleb Schlauderaff (center) as they beat out Paul Cornick (added to the practice squad), Matt Kroul, and Fred Koloto. The Jets probably will only have 7 offensive lineman active on gameday so neither Landholt nor Schlauderaff figure to see much action unless either can beat out Ducaase for that 7th spot, not unrealistic seeing as the 2010 2nd round pick bust is in the Jets’ doghouse. He needs a good year to stay on the roster in 2013.

Defensive Line

Starters Mike DeVito, Muhammad Wilkerson, and Sione Pouha were locks, as was Quinton Coples, a 1st round rookie who figures to have a big situational role this year. Kenrick Ellis, a 2011 3rd round pick, was also a lock because of his draft status. The Jets didn’t have a lot of spots open for true defensive lineman as they use a lot of defensive fronts and linebackers like Bryan Thomas, Aaron Maybin, and Calvin Pace could also see time on the defensive line.

In the end, the Jets kept 7 defensive linemen, the 5 mentioned and 2 others. Undrafted free agent Damon Harrison was kept as the 3rd string nose tackle. He can also play defensive tackle when they go a 4-3 or a 46 scheme, but he’ll probably be a frequent gameday inactive as a rookie. The Jets are probably just keeping him to develop him and because they didn’t want to risk another team grabbing the William Penn University prospect, which would have made them unable to put him on their practice squad.

They also signed Isaako Aaitui, a 2011 undrafted free agent who was a final cut of the Dolphins’ this season. They snatched him up, maybe at Tony Sparano’s urging, and cut Marcus Dixon, who played poorly in significant snaps last season. He became pretty useless when the Jets drafted Quinton Coples to play his role and more. The Jets seem to have preferred to try and see what an outsider had over going with a proven failure insider.

Linebackers

The Jets figured to keep a bunch of linebackers with their hybrid scheme and 3 linebackers, Pace, Thomas, and Maybin also likely to see time on the defensive line. Those 3 were locks, as were Bart Scott and David Thomas, starters at middle linebacker, and Demario Davis, a 3rd round rookie. The Jets kept 3 others, giving them 9 linebackers, 16 front 7 players in all.

Nick Bellore and Josh Mauga remained on the team as reserve inside linebackers, beating out undrafted rookie Marcus Dowtin, who was added to the practice squad, as Davis will begin the year as their 5th inside linebacker as a developmental prospect. The other decision that needed to be made for the Jets was veteran Garrett McIntyre or project Ricky Sapp on the outside. McIntye won out and will be their 4th rush linebacker, while 2010 5th round pick Sapp, formerly of the Eagles, was added to the practice squad.

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Secondary

Starting cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie were locks, as was 2010 1st round pick Kyle Wilson, a borderline bust who was expected to be their nickel cornerback. At safety, starters Yeremiah Bell and LaRon Landry were locks, as was top backup Eric Smith, with no other real options. The Jets returned Ellis Lankster and Isaiah Trufant at cornerback, both of whom were on the roster last season. Despite their struggles at safety, the Jets opted to keep just 4 and only one of their rookies at safety. 6th rounder Josh Bush beat out 7th rounder Antonio Allen, who was cut to make room for Clyde Gates. Allen could still be added to the practice squad if he clears waivers.

Specialists

Joe McKnight will serve as the primary kick return man, with Jeremy Kerley as the primary punt return man. Kyle Wilson will also backup up both positions. Nick Foles and TJ Conley return at place kicker and punter respectively and will be their only two kickers. Tanner Purdum will also return as the long snapper.

Practice Squad

OT Paul Cornick

MLB Marcus Dowtin

CB Donnie Fletcher

WR Royce Pollard

RLB Ricky Sapp

TE Hayden Smith

WR Jordan White

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St. Louis Rams trade OT Jason Smith to the New York Jets for OT Wayne Hunter

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Off-Season, Jets, Offseason Moves 2012, Rams

The Jets and Rams are essentially swapping terrible right tackles in this deal. Smith is the better of the two, but the former 2nd overall pick has only played in 28 games in 3 seasons and only played in more than 7 games once, starting 15 games in 2010. In 2010, he was awful, grading out as below average as a run blocker and pass protector, allowing 5 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback pressures, while committing 9 penalties. Out of 76 offensive tackles, Smith graded out as ProFootballFocus’ 56th ranked offensive tackle that season.

He wasn’t much better in limited action in 2009 or 2011. After missing 10 games with concussions last season, Smith did not impress this offseason, evidently, and was benched for Barry Richardson, who was horrific in his own right last season as the starting right tackle for the cross state Chiefs as Richardson was ProFootballFocus’ 2nd worst rated offensive tackle. It’s pretty pathetic that Smith couldn’t even beat him out.

Hunter, meanwhile, has been even worse over the past 2 years. In 2010, Hunter played the equivalent of 7 whole games, including playoffs, and allowed 4 sacks, 6 quarterback hits, and 15 quarterback pressures, while committing 7 penalties and struggling as a run blocker. Ironically, Hunter managed to grade out one spot lower than Smith on ProFootballFocus’ offensive tackle rankings, 57th, despite only playing less than half the snaps that Smith played.

Hunter did not get better in 2011. In fact, he pretty much continued his awful play over an entire season. ProFootballFocus’ 67th ranked offensive tackle out of 73, Hunter allowed 11 sacks, 11 quarterback hits, and 32 quarterback pressures, committed 11 penalties and struggled as a run blocker. After allowing 3 sacks in a preseason game against the Giants a week ago, Hunter was benched for veteran journeyman Austin Howard, who has only played in 2 games in his career, including one start where the 2010 undrafted free agent allowed 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hits.

Jason Smith is also younger, heading into only his age 26 season, while Hunter heads into his age 31 season, and has more upside as a former #2 overall pick if he can get his game together and stay healthy. However, Smith is owed 4 million fully guaranteed this season, while Howard is owed just 2.45 million fully guaranteed this season. For what it’s worth, neither tackle will see the money they are owed in 2013, as Hunter is owed a non-guaranteed 3.95 million and Smith is owed a whopping non-guaranteed 12 million (including an 11.25 million dollar roster bonus due in March of 2013).

However, I don’t know if the “upgrade” from Hunter to Smith is really worth an extra 1.55 million. If Smith can start to make good on some of his upside and prove to be a decent right tackle, it will be, but the Jets are taking a major risk. I’d rather pay Hunter 2.45 million than pay Smith 4 million. The Rams are also taking a risk, betting that Smith won’t ever emerge as a decent starting right tackle, because this deal pretty much locks them into having an awful right tackle this season, either Hunter or Richardson. However, it’s unlikely that Smith would have been much better than either of them and the Rams are saving 1.55 million this season, so I like this deal a little bit more for them.

Update: Apparently the two sides pulled some salary cap magic and restructuring Smith’s contract right before the trade so that 1.55 million of Smith’s deal would be paid to him as a signing bonus by the Rams before he went to the Jets. Essentially, these two teams are going to be paying these two players the same amount this season. Given that, this deal makes no sense for the Rams? Why trade someone who probably has no upside for someone who definitely has no upside? Smith is younger and better than Hunter. Although, admittedly the former is like comparing eating a pound of dog shit to eating 2 pounds of dog shit. Still, the Jets win this trade.

Grade for St. Louis: C

Grade for NY Jets: A

If you’re interested in doing a fantasy football league with me, here’s the link (no draft date set yet, currently standard, with the option to become PPR with group vote). http://msn.foxsports.com/fantasy/football/commissioner/Registration/Private.aspx?league=55086&password=FanSpot2

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