Jets

New York Jets at Houston Texans: 2021 Week 12 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (2-8) at Houston Texans (2-8)

The Texans won last week in upset fashion, going into Tennessee and knocking off the previously 8-2 Titans, who were favored by 10 points in that game. However, the Titans have not been as good as their record has suggested this season and they have been even worse than that since losing feature back Derrick Henry, so that win isn’t as impressive as it seems, especially since the primary reason the Texans won is they managed to win the turnover battle by 5, in a 9-point Texans win. Turnover margin is highly non-predictive on a week-to-week basis, so the Texans definitely won’t be able to count on that every week and, in more predictive metrics, the Texans lost the first down rate battle by 9.47% and the yards per play battle by 2.2 yards per play.

That was also the Texans first win since back in week one, when they beat a Jaguars team that has proven to also be one of the worst in the league. In between, the Texans lost 8 straight games, with the average margin of defeat coming by 18.3 points per game. Even that doesn’t show quite how bad the Texans were during that stretch, as that average margin of defeat would be a lot higher if the Patriots weren’t missing most of their offensive line in their 3-point win, a game in which the Patriots still won the first down rate battle by 8.67%, and if the Texans hadn’t scored 22 meaningless garbage points against the Rams in a game in which they were down 38-0 going into the 4th quarter.

Even with last week’s win, the Texans still rank 32nd, 31st, and 24th in offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency, adjusted for schedule, and, in terms of mixed efficiency, the Texans don’t just rank dead last in the NFL, but they are about 4.5 points than any other team in the league. Their win last week also puts them in a bad spot, as teams tend to struggle the week after pulling a huge upset, covering the spread at a 41.7% rate all-time after a win as double digits underdogs, including 40.3% after a win as divisional double digit underdogs. 

That effect could be even more pronounced in this game, as the Texans’ season is still lost at this point and last week’s win over the Titans was the equivalent of the Texans’ Super Bowl. It’s hard to imagine them giving anywhere near that level of effort this week against a fellow 2-8 team in the Jets. The Jets are also one of the worst teams in the league, but their mixed efficiency, which ranks 29th in the league, is still about six points better than the Texans.

The Texans did get a boost a couple weeks ago when veteran starting quarterback returned from injury and replaced overmatched rookie Davis Mills under center, so the gap between these two teams isn’t quite as big as their mixed efficiency rankings show, but Taylor is still a borderline starting caliber quarterback at best, so it’s not enough of a boost to justify the Texans being favored by 2.5 points in this matchup, especially given that they figure to be flat. My calculated line has the Jets favored by 1 point, even before taking into account that the Texans are in a bad spot. I would need a full field goal to bet on the Jets confidently against the spread, but the money line at +120 is a good value, as the Jets should be considered no worse than 50/50 to win this game, and the Jets are still the pick for pick ‘em purposes.

Update: This line has moved up to a field goal on Sunday morning. This is likely because Corey Davis was ruled out for the Jets, but I made this pick and this calculated line (Jets -1) with that in mind. The Texans don’t deserve to be favored by a field goal over anyone, even before you take into account that they could be flat after winning their “Super Bowl” last week. I know the Texans beat a same caliber Jaguars team week one at home with Tyrod Taylor under center, but the Texans’ offensive line was a lot healthier in that game with their two talented offensive tackles Laremy Tunsil and Marcus Cannon. Without them, the Texans have struggled to block anyone. If you can get the full field goal, I would recommend a small bet.

New York Jets 23 Houston Texans 20 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3

Confidence: Medium

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets: 2021 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Miami Dolphins (3-6) at New York Jets (2-7)

One thing I like to do is go against significant week-to-week line movements as, barring injuries, they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. This game is a great example. A week ago, the Jets were favored by a couple points on the early line, but the Dolphins pulled an upset over the Ravens on Thursday Night Football, while the Jets were blown out in Buffalo and now the Jets are 3.5-point home underdogs, without any significant injury developments on either side.

The Dolphins’ win over the Ravens is much less impressive when you take into account that the Ravens were coming off of an overtime game and playing a Thursday game, a spot in which teams only cover the spread at a 16.0% rate, while the Jets’ 28-point loss to the Bills isn’t as bad when you take into account that all six of the Bills wins have come by 15 points or more (with an average margin of victory of 26.2 points) and that the Bills are one of the top few teams in the league. 

The Jets are just 2-7, but the Dolphins have just one more win and, aside from last week’s fluky win over the Ravens, their other two wins have come in a one-score win over the Texans, one of the worst teams in the league, and by one-point over the Patriots week one in a game in which the Patriots won the first down rate and yards per play battle, but lost a pair of fumbles, including one in easy field goal range that could have won the game. 

The Dolphins were 10-6 a year ago, but a dropoff always seemed inevitable, as they faced a very easy schedule and they benefited from an unsustainably high turnover margin (+11), opponent’s field goal percentage (3rd lowest at 73.91%), and 3rd/4th down conversion rate allowed (33.02%), which was actually lower than the 34.07% conversion rate they allowed on 1st/2nd down (4th highest in the NFL). They were always likely to disappoint this season and it’s not surprising they have done so in such a big way.

Even with last week’s win over the Ravens taken into account, the Dolphins rank just 30th, 24th, and 25th in schedule adjusted offensive, defensive, and special teams efficiency and probably shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal on the road against anyone, except maybe the Texans. The Jets also are likely getting an upgrade at quarterback with veteran Joe Flacco taking over for inexperienced former undrafted free agent Mike White. My calculated line is still about where this line was last week, favoring the Jets by 1.5 points.

On top of that, the Dolphins are also in a bad spot as a result of last week’s win, as teams cover the spread at just a 40.9% rate all-time after winning as home underdogs of 5 points or more, which applies to the Dolphins, who were 7.5-point home underdogs last week. Part of that is because teams tend to be overvalued after a big home win that could easily prove to be a fluke, which I’ve already covered, but teams could also be overconfident in this spot as well.

It would not be a surprise to see the Dolphins look past the Jets, who, by contrast, are coming off of a blowout loss and will want to play their hardest to avoid further embarrassment. With about 1 out of every 4 games decided by 3 points or fewer, we’re getting great line value with the Jets at +3.5 and, between that and the Jets being in a good spot, this is worth a big play, both against the spread and on the money line.

New York Jets 23 Miami Dolphins 20 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +3.5

Confidence: High

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets: 2021 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (5-3) at New York Jets (2-6)

It’s tough to know what to make of the Bills this season, as a result, this is a tough game to pick against the spread. The Bills rank 2nd in the NFL with a +117 point differential and all three of their losses have come by one score, but they have also faced the easiest schedule in the league. Their five wins have come against teams who are a combined 14-32 and last week they lost to a Jaguars team that had just one win on the season prior. Despite that loss last week, this line has not shifted at all from favoring the Bills by 13 on the early line last week. The Bills have still blown out most of the weak opponents they have faced and they should do so again here, but we’re not getting any line value either way with this game, as Buffalo -13 is right where my calculated line is. I’m taking the Bills for pick ‘em purposes, but this is close to a coin flip.

Buffalo Bills 27 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: Buffalo -13

Confidence: None

New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts: 2021 Week 9 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (2-4) at Indianapolis Colts (3-5)

Neither of these two teams are in a good spot this week. The Jets are coming off of a surprising upset victory over the Bengals as 11-point home underdogs, winning their first game with backup quarterback Mike White under center, but the Jets were in a great spot last week, embarrassed after a blowout in New England the week before, facing a Bengals team that was in a trap game spot between a big upset of the Ravens the previous week and another big divisional game against the Browns on deck, meaning they were likely to overlook a 1-win team starting a backup quarterback.

This week, the Colts will have more tape on Mike White than the Bengals did a week ago and the Jets win last week also puts them in a bad spot this week, as teams tend to be flat after a big home upset victory, covering at just a 41.1% rate all-time after a win as home underdogs of 5 points or more. The Jets had a similar situation earlier this year, pulling a home upset victory over the Titans as 6-point underdogs, only to be mostly uncompetitive against a mediocre at best Falcons team the following week.

Making matters worse, Mike White and the Jets will have to go on the road to face a solid Colts team on a short week. It tends to be very tough for a team to go on the road and face a superior team out of the division on a short week and, as a result, non-divisional road underdogs cover at just a 35.0% rate on a short week, with that percentage dropping to 27.5% as underdogs of 7 points or more. The Colts are just 3-5, but they are much better than their record, as all three of their wins have come by double digits, while three of their five losses have come by one score against teams that currently have two losses or fewer (Rams, Ravens, Titans). 

Of the Colts’ two losses by more than one score, one was a competitive 9-point loss, also against the Titans, in a game that could have been even more competitive had Colts quarterback Carson Wentz not been playing with two sprained ankles, which he has since healed from, while their other double digit defeat was back in week one. The Colts also were without their top two offensive linemen Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith for 4 games and 6 games respectively and have seen them return from those injuries in the past couple weeks, though Nelson remains at less than 100%. Despite the Colts’ underwhelming record, it will be tough for the Jets to come on the road and be competitive with them on a short week.

Unfortunately, we’re not getting any line value with the Colts, who are favored by 10.5 points, despite still missing some regular contributors on both sides of the ball. The Colts are also in a terrible spot because their loss to the Titans last week came in overtime, putting them in a near impossible spot on a short week, with teams historically covering just 6 times out of 34 on Thursday Night Football after an overtime contest the week before. 

As bad of a spot as the Jets are in, the Colts are in an even worse spot and, if anything, we’re actually getting some line value with the Jets, who I have calculated as 10-point underdogs. White is likely to struggle much more than he did a week ago, but he could still be the Jets’ best quarterback, so the Jets don’t like as bad of a bet as they did a few weeks ago. There are too many conflicting things going on in this game to bet on the Jets confidently, but they are the better side for pick ’em purposes as they are in the slightly better spot and are getting a little bit of line value.

Indianapolis Colts 24 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +10.5

Confidence: Low

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets: 2021 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) at New York Jets (1-5)

These two teams had completely opposite weeks last week. While the Bengals pulled a big upset win in Baltimore by 24 points, the Jets were blown out in a 41-point loss in New England and lost their starting quarterback Zach Wilson for an extended period of time, forcing them to turn to unproven backup Mike White. As a result, this line has shifted in a significant way, with the Bengals going from being 3.5-point favorites on the early line last week to now being favored by 11.

That seems like an overreaction. The Bengals win was impressive, but it wasn’t as lopsided as the final score indicated, as it was close for most of the game before the Ravens were forced to go for it on several 4th downs late and failed. In first down rate differential, the Bengals held the edge by just 1.52%. That win also puts the Bengals in a bad spot this week, as teams cover at about a 41.9% rate all-time after a win as divisional underdogs of 6 points or more. They could easily be flat after last week’s emotional win.

The Jets, meanwhile, are in a good spot because teams tend to cover at a high rate after being blown out like the Jets were last week, bouncing back to cover at a 58.0% rate the following week after a 35+ point loss all-time. I’m also not that concerned that the Jets will be starting a backup quarterback because I don’t think the dropoff from Wilson to White is that significant, with Wilson struggling to this point in his career. A 7.5 point line movement like we had in this game from last week to this week is usually reserved for a franchise caliber quarterback getting hurt, so it’s hard to justify it in these circumstances.

The Bengals are also in another bad spot because they have to turn around and play another tough game against the Browns next week. Favorites of a touchdown or more cover at just a 43.4% rate all-time before facing an opponent who has a winning percentage that is 40% of better than their current opponent’s winning percentage. Given the situation, it’s hard to see the Bengals bringing their best effort for this matchup against a one-win team starting a backup quarterback, while the Jets should bring their best effort in response to last week’s embarrassment. We’re not getting much line value here with the Jets, but the spot is good enough that the Jets are worth a small play.

Cincinnati Bengals 20 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: NY Jets +11

Confidence: Medium

New York Jets at New England Patriots: 2021 Week 7 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (1-4) at New England Patriots (2-4)

The Patriots are just 2-4, but they’ve had some tough luck, as three of their four losses have come by 1 point, 2 points, and in overtime, which is about as close as losses get, including near wins against the Buccaneers and Cowboys, who are both high level teams and a combined 10-2. Their schedule hasn’t been that tough and their wins have come against the worst teams in the league in the Jets and Texans, but they beat the Jets by 19 in New York already, while their close win over the Texans came in a game in which the Patriots were missing almost all of their starting offensive linemen and still won the first down rate battle by 8.67%. 

The Patriots now host the Jets again in New England and, as 7-point favorites, whether or not they cover this spread and win by multiple scores again is likely to come down to how healthy their offensive line is. They got stud left guard Michael Onwenu back last week, which made a big difference in their close loss to the Cowboys, while left tackle Isaiah Wynn and right guard Shaq Mason could both possibly return this week, which would also be a big boost.

If both play, they should be able to win by multiple scores against a team they had no problem with earlier this season and I would like bet them if the line remained at seven, but if one of them is out, that becomes a lot harder, especially with the Patriots in a tough spot with a trip to Los Angeles to face the Chargers up next on the schedule. Favorites of 7+ cover at just a 42.7% rate all-time before facing a team with a winning percentage that is over 50% higher than their current opponent’s winning percentage, which is the case here with the Chargers being 4-2. If both Mason and Wynn out, I would still take the Patriots, but I would drop all confidence. I’m leaving this as low confidence for now, but there may be an injury update tomorrow.

Update: The Patriots will have both Isaiah Wynn and more importantly Shaq Mason active and the line remains at seven, so I am putting a bet on the Patriots this week. I don’t expect this one to be close.

New England Patriots 27 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: New England -7

Confidence: Medium

New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons: 2021 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (1-3) vs. Atlanta Falcons (1-3) in London

The Jets won their first game of the season last week, knocking off a very banged up Titans team in an overtime upset victory, but they might have trouble bringing that same energy for this week’s game in London against the Falcons. The Jets won as 6-point home underdogs last week and teams cover at just a 41.0% rate after a win as home underdogs of 4.5 or more, as teams tend to be flat off of an emotional upset win. That could be made even worse by the fact that the Jets have to travel all the way to London for a matchup with a fellow 1-3 team.

The Falcons are also the slightly better team, despite both teams having mediocre records, as I have them about 3 points better, even without top wide receiver Calvin Ridley, who will miss this game. The Jets still come in as the 4th worst team in my roster rankings, despite narrowly winning their first game of the season. This line, favoring the Falcons by 2.5 points on a neutral site, isn’t too far off, but it’s also a good rule of thumb to pick the favorite in international games, as they have gone 25-13 ATS, which makes sense, given that the better team is probably better equipped to deal with playing a game after an unusual week. There isn’t enough here for the Falcons to be worth betting, but they should be the right side for pick ‘em purposes.

Atlanta Falcons 24 New York Jets 20

Pick against the spread: Atlanta -2.5

Confidence: Low

Tennessee Titans at New York Jets: 2021 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Tennessee Titans (2-1) at New York Jets (0-3)

This is a pretty unappealing game to bet on. I have thought the Titans are overrated since before the season began. They won 11 games a year ago, but they faced an easy schedule and went 7-2 in one score games, while leading the league with a +11 turnover margin, which are both unsustainable long-term. They drew a lot of attention in the off-season for their addition of Julio Jones, but he is on the decline and might not be an upgrade on free agent departure Corey Davis, while the loss of offensive coordinator Arthur Smith and an aging offensive line also affect this offense in a negative fashion. They are 2-1, but their point differential is still negative at -13, as a result of an embarrassing week one loss to the Cardinals.

The Jets, however, are one of the worst teams in the league, with the league’s worst point differential (-50), and are the type of team the Titans could beat by multiple scores. The Titans are missing their top-2 wide receivers with both Julio Jones and AJ Brown out, while their defense will be missing edge defender Bud Dupree and cornerback Caleb Farley, two key off-season additions, but the Jets will be missing their top defensive player Marcus Maye from a roster that was already very thin on above average players. My calculated line is right at where the odds makers have it, Tennessee -6, and I don’t see a real edge for either side, but I’m taking the Titans purely because it’s hard to expect anything positive from the Jets right now.

Tennessee Titans 24 New York Jets 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -6

Confidence: None

New York Jets at Denver Broncos: 2021 Week 3 NFL Pick

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New York Jets (0-2) at Denver Broncos (2-0)

Coming into the season, I thought the Broncos could be a playoff team in the AFC, with an improved quarterback situation, a healthier and more experienced receiving corps, and a defense that got Von Miller back and significantly upgraded their biggest weakness at cornerback. They have started 2-0 and, while their schedule has been a big factor, as they’ve gotten to face the Giants and Jaguars, it was still good to see them take care of business, winning both games by double digits on the road.

The schedule doesn’t get any harder for the Broncos this week, as the pathetic Jets come to town for their home opener, but that doesn’t necessarily mean the Broncos will cover this 10.5 point spread. Already at 2-0, the Broncos could overlook an 0-2 Jets team, especially with their first real game on deck, a game against the Ravens. Teams also tend to struggle when playing their first home game in week 3, covering at just a 33.3% rate in a week 3 home opener over the past thirty seasons. 

I’m not entirely sure why that is, but it does make some sense that teams would be tired after back-to-back home games to start the season and then relax a little in their home opener, leading to relative struggles. There is enough line value here for the Broncos to still seem like the right side, but I don’t have any confidence in them covering this big spread, as the Jets could easily make this game closer than expected, especially since the Broncos are without key players like Bradley Chubb and Josey Jewell.

Denver Broncos 24 New York Jets 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -10.5

Confidence: None

New England Patriots at New York Jets: 2021 Week 2 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (0-1) at New York Jets (0-1)

The Patriots were my Pick of the Week last week and lost by 1 point as 3-point favorites, but the peripheral numbers show that the Patriots were the more efficient team, as they had the higher first down rate (33.33% vs. 30.77%) and yards per play (5.61 vs. 4.98), but lost the game because of two key lost fumbles, which happens to be one of the least predictive metrics, to the point where it’s essentially random week-to-week. I was hoping the general public would pay more attention to the result of that game and ignore that the Patriots likely would have won by a touchdown at least if they could hold onto the ball, which would have giving us even more value with the Patriots this week, but this line has shifted from favoring the Patriots by 3.5 on the early line last week to 6 this week, so that didn’t really happen. 

However, I think we are still getting line value with the Patriots, who I had as a top-10 team coming into the season, something that could easily happen despite last week’s result, if they can take better care of the football going forward. The Jets, meanwhile, are one of the worst teams in the league and looked that way in losing the first down rate battle (28.57% vs. 25.81%) and the yards per play battle (6.05 vs. 4.20) by significant margins against a mediocre Panthers team week one. The Jets did make noticeable upgrades on offense this season, including at the quarterback position, but they are still starting a rookie quarterback, which is especially a problem against a Bill Belichick coached defense.

On top of that, the Jets’ defense is likely to be worse than a year ago, they are starting from a lower base point than last year’s 2-14 record suggests, as their two wins easily could have been losses, and left tackle Mekhi Becton being out for the foreseeable future only makes things worse. Even with this line shifting to 6, we are getting line value with the Patriots, who I have calculated as 11-point favorites. Without another obvious choice, this is my Pick of the Week again, as I was very encouraged by a lot of what the Patriots did week one, despite the result, and think they remain underrated.

New England Patriots 27 New York Jets 16

Pick against the spread: New England -6

Confidence: Pick of the Week