Lions

Baltimore Ravens trade DT Haloti Ngata to Detroit Lions

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Free Agency, Lions, Ravens, Uncategorized

Trade for Baltimore: I mentioned Haloti Ngata’s name in my Ravens’ off-season preview as someone who could be a cap casualty. This was something that had been mentioned by multiple sources and it was understandable as the cap strapped Ravens could free up 8.5 million in cash and cap space by releasing Ngata ahead of his age 31 season. However, I also said that a better solution would be to give him an extension that immediately lowers his contract number and keeps him under contract for 2016 and beyond, as they did with Terrell Suggs last off-season, as Ngata still has good football left in him. The Ravens went with a different approach, letting him go and saving the cap space, but doing so by trade, so at least they got a 4th and 5th round pick out of him. I don’t think that was the right move, but it’s not a horrible decision.

Grade: B-

Trade for Detroit: Detroit I think comes out the winners here. Ngata isn’t as good or as young as Ndamukong Suh, but paying him 8.5 million in 2015 seems better than paying Suh the 19 million annually that he received from Miami. Ngata graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 9th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2014 and he’s graded out as a top-18 player at his position in every season since Pro Football Focus’ inception in 2007. He’s played in both 3-man and 4-man fronts in his career and will fit in well in Detroit. His age is a concern, as he goes into his age 31 season, but they won’t owe him anything beyond 2015 and he’s not completely over the hill yet. Unlike the Ravens, the Lions don’t have big cap problems and don’t need to extend him long-term to drive down his cap number if they don’t want to. The price they paid for him, outside of a reasonable salary, was two relatively meaningless picks.

Grade: B+

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Detroit Lions 2015 NFL Off-Season Preview

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Off-Season Previews, Lions, Uncategorized

Positions of Need

Defensive Tackle

Defensive tackle has been a strength for the Lions for years, but all three of their top defensive tackles, Ndamukong Suh, Nick Fairley, and CJ Mosley, are free agents this off-season. Mosley is the most likely to re-sign and will be the cheapest, but he’s going into his age 32 season. The Lions will find it borderline impossible to bring back all 3 of them and they’ll also have trouble bringing back even two of them. Defensive tackle help is needed this off-season and the Lions could turn to the early rounds of the draft to fill this need.

Cornerback

Rashean Mathis and Darius Slay were a great cornerback duo in 2014 for the Lions, grading out 12th and 19th among cornerbacks respectively on Pro Football Focus. However, Mathis is a free agent going into his age 35 season and they really lack depth at the position. Bill Bentley was drafted in the 3rd round in 2012, but he hasn’t delivered yet, grading out below average in both 2012 and 2013 and then missing all but 3 snaps with a torn ACL in 2014. They need to add another cornerback to the mix, especially if Mathis isn’t brought back on a short-term deal as a stopgap.

Wide Receiver

Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate each broke the 1000 yard barrier last season, one of just 4 wide receiver duos to do so (Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb, Demaryius Thomas/Emmanuel Sanders, and Mike Evans/Vincent Jackson were the other 3). However, they were the only two Lion wide receivers to play a snap and grade out above average in 2014, which becomes a serious problem if Johnson or Tate ever get hurt, as Johnson did for a period of time in 2014. Depth needs to be added.

Defensive End

Jason Jones was Pro Football Focus’ 47th ranked 4-3 defensive end out of 59 eligible last season and the Lions could cut him, to save 3.15 million in cash and cap space. Even if he returns, it could be as a defensive tackle. George Johnson was solid as a 3rd defensive end last season and could be a candidate to replace Jones as a starter. Johnson played 502 snaps last season, grading out slightly above average, but he’s still unproven, after playing 156 snaps in his first 4 seasons combined. They could add to this position this off-season.

Guard

Rob Sims is a free agent going into his age 32 season. He’s aging, but he still showed the ability to be a capable starter in 2014, so they should try to bring him back. That being said, if they’re unable to, they’ll need to replace him, as they don’t really have a good internal replacement.

Center

Dominic Raiola seems to be at the end of his line, a free agent going into his age 37 season, after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 37th ranked center out of 41 eligible in 2014. The Lions drafted Travis Swanson in the 3rd round in 2014 to be a long-term solution, but he struggled as a rookie, primarily at right guard. He only played 277 snaps, so he wasn’t eligible for Pro Football Focus’ rankings, but no one played fewer snaps at guard and graded out worse.

Key Free Agents

DT Ndamukong Suh

Ndamukong Suh has a good chance to be the best free agent on the open market this off-season. Guys like Justin Houston, Dez Bryant, and Demaryius Thomas can all make arguments that they’re the best player with an expiring contract this off-season, but all 3 of those players figure to get franchise tagged. Because of franchise tag rules and Suh’s massive cap number in the contract year of his rookie deal in 2014, franchising Suh would cost the Lions 26.7 million, so that’s not really an option. The Lions could still sign Suh before free agency hits, but more than likely he’s going to want to test the market, in search of the richest deal that a defensive player has ever signed. He wants a deal bigger than the 6-year, 100 million dollar extension JJ Watt got last off-season. Suh isn’t quite Watt, but some team could still be willing to give him that. Suh joins Gerald McCoy (who got a 7-year, 98 million dollar extension last off-season) as the only defensive tackle to grade out in the top-4 among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons.

DT Nick Fairley

Nick Fairley is a frustrating player. He went 13th overall in the 2011 NFL Draft, but, 4 years into his career, it’s still not clear how good of a player he is. It’s clear how good he can be, but he’s been so inconsistent. Fairley only played 236 snaps as a rookie, largely because of injuries, but he still played well and, in 2012, he was even better, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked defensive tackle on just 511 snaps. Fairley looked primed for a breakout year in 2013, but weight problems caused him to only grade out slightly above average on 693 snaps. As a result, the Lions didn’t pick up his option for 2015, making 2014 his contract year, and briefly benched him for CJ Mosley last off-season. That seemed to wake him up as he played very well to start the season, but he missed 8 games with injuries. He still graded out 18th among defensive tackles on just 297 snaps, but now he heads into free agency still an enigma. He’s shown top defensive tackle talent and he’s only going into his age 27 season, but he’s inconsistent, he’s had discipline problems dating back to his collegiate days, discipline problems that won’t get better if he gets a ton of money, and he’s missed 18 games with injuries in 4 years in the league. He’s a high risk, high reward signing at 6-7 million annually.

G Rob Sims

Rob Sims is an ironman who has made all 80 starts over the past 5 seasons since arriving in Detroit, but he’s going into his age 32 season and graded out below average last season for the first time since 2008, back when he was a reserve with the Seahawks. He still played pretty well last year, grading out slightly below average, but he’s been Pro Football Focus’ 37th and 40th ranked guard in 2013 and 2014 respectively, so the days of him grading out in the top-13 at his position, like he did in 2011 and 2012, and being one of the better guards in the NFL are gone. Still, he’s a starting caliber guard who won’t break the bank, so he’ll draw plenty of interest. I don’t expect him to get much guaranteed money past 2015 though.

CB Rashean Mathis

Rashean Mathis looked done after 2012, as he graded out below average in 2012, missed 11 games with injury in 2011 and 2012 combined, and was going into his age 33 season. He didn’t get signed until mid-August in 2013, but he turned back the clock in Detroit over the past 2 seasons, making 29 starts and grading out 26th in 2013 and 12th in 2014. He’s a free agent going into his age 35 season this off-season so he won’t command a large salary, but the Lions would love to bring him back as a stopgap in their secondary and he should draw interest from other cornerback needy teams as well.

DT CJ Mosley

CJ Mosley has been the 3rd defensive tackle for the Lions over the past 2 seasons, but he’s made 9 starts, played 836 snaps, and graded out above average in both seasons so he’s been very important to the Lions. When you take into account that he graded out above average in 2011 and 2012, this is one of the best reserve defensive linemen in the NFL. He’s going into his age 32 season so he won’t get a ton of money on the open market, but he should get paid like a low-end starter. If the Lions are unable to bring back Suh and Fairley, Mosley could easily be a starter in Detroit next season.

C Dominic Raiola

Dominic Raiola has been with the Lions since they drafted him in the 2nd round in 2014, making 203 starts over that time period, but he appears to be at the end of the line and is expected to retire this off-season, after grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 37th ranked center out of 41 eligible last season. If he does decide to play another season, what would be his age 37 season, it probably won’t be in Detroit, as they appear ready to move forward with 2014 3rd round pick Travis Swanson at center in 2015. He might not draw any interest at all on the open market.

Cap Casualty Candidates

RB Reggie Bush

Bush never really became the otherworldly talent that the NFL was expecting him to be, after the Saints drafted the former Heisman winner 2nd overall in 2006, but after an injury plagued tenure in New Orleans that saw him max out at 157 carries, Bush became a solid starter from 2011-2013 with the Dolphins and Lions, averaging 222 carries for 1026 yards and 5 touchdowns and 44 catches for 365 yards and 2 touchdowns over that time period. Those days appear behind him now though, as he heads into his age 30 season, coming off of a season where he was more of a complementary back behind Joique Bell. Bush rushed for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns on 76 carries (3.91 YPC) and caught 40 passes for 253 yards. He also missed 5 games with injury and Theo Riddick did a solid job as the complementary back in his absence. The Lions could cut Bush to save 3.5 million in cash and 1.72 million on the cap and move forward with the significantly cheaper Riddick behind Bell.

DE Jason Jones

Jason Jones was signed to a 3-year, 9.5 million dollar deal two off-seasons ago by the Lions, but he was limited to 87 snaps in 2013 by a torn patellar tendon and then graded out 47th out of 59 eligible this season as a starter. The Lions could cut him to save 3.15 million in cash and cap space, but he’s only going into his age 29 season and he’s had more career success at defensive tackle than defensive end so the Lions could bring him back and move him inside. As a defensive tackle, the 6-3 274 pounder has graded out above average on limited snaps inside in both 2009 and 2012 and graded out 6th among defensive tackles on Pro Football Focus as a starter in 2010.

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Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys: 2014 Wild Card Round NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 NFL Wild Card Picks, Cowboys, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (11-5) at Dallas Cowboys (12-4)

The Cowboys have been pretty inconsistent this season. They come into the playoffs red hot, ranking 3rd among playoff teams (only behind Seattle and Carolina) in rate of moving the chains differential adjusted for schedule. This makes sense as they won their final 4 to qualify for the playoffs, including convincing victories against a pair of solid football teams, Indianapolis and Philadelphia. However, over the past 8 games, they rank just 9th among playoff teams, as those 8 games include performances such as big home losses to Philadelphia and Arizona. That Arizona game can be somewhat disregarded though as Romo didn’t play. On the season, they rank 8th among playoff teams in schedule adjusted rate of moving the chains differential.

The Lions, meanwhile, rank near the bottom no matter what timeframe you look at, the last 4 games, the last 8 games, or the whole season. They rank 11th, 12th, and 10th among 12 playoff teams in those 3 metrics respectively. Their +39 point differential is 4th worst among playoff teams (ahead of only Carolina, Arizona, and Cincinnati) and they’ve been overly reliant on a 6-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a +7 turnover margin. If Dallas plays like they have over the past 4 games, they should be able to win this one easily and cover the spread of 6.5 as well, but their season long inconsistency worries me. If they don’t play like they have in their last 4 games, I think we’re getting line value with the Lions.

Another thing that worries me is that, of their final 4 games, 3 of them were on the road. The Cowboys have proven they can win on the road this season, winning all 8 road games, but they’re just 4-4 at home and their numbers have been significantly worse at home. At home, they’ve moved the chains at a 76.86% rate, as opposed to 74.79% for their opponents, a differential of 2.07%, while they’ve moved the chains at a 77.73% rate on the road, as opposed to 72.84% for their opponents, a differential of 4.89%. The Cowboys got a huge home victory over the Colts week 16, beating a solid opponent by the final score of 42-7, but their home issues date back longer than this year, as they’re 8-23 ATS as home favorites since 2010, and in their 2nd to last home game they got destroyed by the Eagles, so I’m not completely sold on the Cowboys at home.

However, the Lions haven’t exactly been good on the road this season either, moving the chains at a 69.71% rate, as opposed to 73.17% for their opponents, a differential of -3.46%, as opposed to a 73.22% rate, as opposed to 67.93% for their opponents, a differential of 5.29% at home. On top of this, they are 4-13 ATS against winning teams on the road since 2011. The Lions should be the right side. The Cowboys struggle at home, are probably a little overrated (when you look at the whole season for these two teams), and have heavy public action on them. However, the Cowboys are a hot team and the Lions are one of the worst teams in the playoffs, especially on the road, so I’m not confident.

Dallas Cowboys 24 Detroit Lions 19

Pick against the spread: Detroit +6.5

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: 2014 Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 17 NFL Picks, Lions, Packers, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (11-4) at Green Bay Packers (11-4)

The Packers failed to cover in their previous home game, a 43-37 home victory over the Falcons, but that’s the only time they’ve failed to cover at home this season, en route to a thus far perfect 7-0 mark at home. On the season, they move the chains at an 81.55% rate at home, as opposed to 73.04% for their opponents, a differential of 8.50%. Conversely, the Lions have been terrible on the road, moving the chains at a 68.97% rate, as opposed to 73.18% for their opponents, a differential of -4.22% away from the Motor City.

The Packers’ home dominance is nothing new as Aaron Rodgers is 26-10-1 ATS at home since 2010 and 33-4 straight up, with an absurd +554 point differential, meaning they outscore opponents, on average, by 14.97 points per game. The Packers lost earlier this year in Detroit, but the Lions are going to have a much tougher time here in Green Bay as they seek to hand the Packers their first home loss of the season, sweep the season series, and clinch the division and a first round bye.

These two teams may have identical records, but the Packers have been significantly better than the Lions this season. They rank 5th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a league best 79.54% rate, as opposed to 74.63% for their opponents, a differential of 4.91%. Meanwhile, the Lions rank 13th, moving the chains at a 71.08% rate, as opposed to 70.25% for their opponents, a differential of 0.83%. That’s largely because the Packers have a +128 point differential on the season, as opposed to +49 for the Lions, who have needed some lucky comebacks in close games to get to where they are. The odds makers know about the Packers’ home dominance and about how uneven these two teams are in talent level, which is why this line is 7.5, but I still don’t think it’s high enough. The Packers should be the right side.

Green Bay Packers 30 Detroit Lions 17

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7.5

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears: 2014 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 16 NFL Picks, Bears, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (10-4) at Chicago Bears (5-9)

This line was 4.5 last week, but it’s since moved to 7 in favor of the Lions, a line movement of 2.5 points that crossed both significant numbers of 6 and 7. It’s easy to understand why the line moved after the Bears were embarrassed on national television by the Saints. However, I love fading a significant line movement whenever it makes sense, especially if I get to fade the public in the process, as the public always loses money in the long run. This week’s game meets all those conditions as the public is all over the Lions, despite the line movement, and the line movement was unwarranted and an overreaction.

Yes, the Bears looked bad at home last week against the Saints, but the Lions didn’t exactly look good either, needing 3 Minnesota missed field goals and two Minnesota interceptions, including one that set the Lions’ offense up at the Minnesota 11, to beat the Vikings by 2 at home. The Vikings won the first down battle in that game by 10, 21-11. In terms of rate of moving the chains differential, the Lions moved the chains at a 57.14% rate, as opposed to 74.19% for their opponents, a differential of -17.05%. That’s actually worse than the Bears, who moved the chains at a 62.07% rate, as opposed to 78.38% for their opponents, a differential of -16.31%. And the Bears did so against a much better team, as the Saints rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential on the season, while the Vikings are in 27th.

When you look at how both of these two teams have done on the entire season in terms of rate of moving the chains differential, it becomes obvious that there’s significant line value with the Bears, especially after that unwarranted line movement. The Lions rank 15th on the season, moving the chains at a 70.60% rate, as opposed to 70.41% for their opponents, a differential of 0.20%. The Bears, meanwhile, rank 22nd, moving the chains at a 74.43% rate, as opposed to 75.92% for their opponents, a differential of -1.48%. There’s no way the Lions deserve to be favored by a touchdown here.

On top of that, the Lions are in a terrible spot. Favorites of 6 or more are just 47-81 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more since 2002. Even worse, teams are 18-33 ATS since 1989 as road favorites of 4+ before being road underdogs of 4+. The 49ers lost straight up in Oakland in this exact same spot as 8 point favorites a couple weeks ago, ahead of a much bigger game in Seattle. The Lions could easily slip up here with a much bigger game in Green Bay next week, especially since the talent difference between the Bears and Lions isn’t nearly as much as the Raiders and 49ers.

Update: The Bears made the surprise move today to go to Jimmy Clausen instead of Jay Cutler at quarterback. I apologize to anyone who put money on Chicago +7 at my recommendation. I didn’t see this coming. Clausen is definitely not an upgrade on Cutler, who hasn’t been the problem in Chicago, leading this offense to be 11th ranked in rate of moving the chains differential. This move was likely just made as a wake up call to the rest of the team and it may do it’s job, at least for the time being, as everyone is getting fired in Chicago this off-season. The line has moved to 9 as a result and I still like Chicago at +9 with Clausen, which is the good news for anyone who took Chicago +7. I’m not as confident as I was before because I don’t think 2 points is enough of an adjustment for Cutler being out, so we’re losing some line value, but the Lions are still in a terrible spot and we’re still getting some line value by fading a Detroit offense that hasn’t moved the ball well all season as massive road favorites. There’s also some small Josh McCown potential with Clausen, who looked good in the pre-season, in Trestman’s system. Chicago is still the pick here and it’s still a money pick, but not as high a confidence pick as it was before.

Detroit Lions 20 Chicago Bears 17

Pick against the spread: Chicago +9

Confidence: Medium

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Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 15 NFL Picks, Lions, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (6-7) at Detroit Lions (9-4)

The Lions are in a good spot here. While they go to Chicago next week, which won’t provide much of a distraction, the Vikings have another tough game on deck, heading to Miami next week. Teams are 89-63 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ road favorites and 57-36 ATS before being 4+ road favorites. The early line has the Lions favored by 4.5 in Chicago next week. Meanwhile, the early line for Miami/Minnesota is 7 and touchdown underdogs are 77-98 ATS before being touchdown underdogs since 2008.

On top of that, we’re getting some line value with the Lions. They rank XX in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 71.32% rate, as opposed to 70.10% for their opponents, a differential of 1.22%. Meanwhile, the Vikings rank 27th, moving the chains at a 68.65% rate, as opposed to 73.37% for their opponents, a differential of -4.72%. I’m not that confident in the Lions because there isn’t anything super powerful on their side and because they are still just 2-11 ATS off of a win of 10 or more since 2011, but they should be the right side.

Detroit Lions 23 Minnesota Vikings 13

Pick against the spread: Detroit -7

Confidence: Low

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 14 NFL Picks, Buccaneers, Lions, Uncategorized

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-10) at Detroit Lions (8-4)

This line is too high. The Lions aren’t as good as their record, as they’ve gone 4-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less. They rank just 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 70.83% rate, as opposed to 70.83% for their opponents, a differential of 0.00%. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers have just 2 losses by more than 10 points, which is relevant considering this line is at 10. On the road, they only have 1 loss by more than 10 points. They also have road victories as big underdogs in Washington and Pittsburgh and they played close games against solid teams in Cleveland and New Orleans. They rank 29th, moving the chains at a 68.34% rate, as opposed to 74.18% for their opponents, a differential of -5.83%.

The Lions are also in a bad spot because they are 1-11 ATS since 2011 off of a win by 10 or more, including 0-7 ATS as favorites. In those 7 instances as a favorite, they’ve only won twice, meaning they will upset 5 times in a 7 game span. The Buccaneers should be able to keep this one close. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play is because the Buccaneers are in a bad spot with a trip to Carolina on deck. Teams are 51-82 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional road underdogs since 2002.

Detroit Lions 17 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +10

Confidence: Low

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Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 13 NFL Picks, Bears, Lions, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (4-7) at Detroit Lions (7-4)

The Lions are in a nice spot here, after a very tough and unrewarding road trip that sent them to Arizona and New England, who are a combined 18-4. Teams that lose back-to-back road games are 43-25 ATS in their next game as long as they still have a winning record and they’re home favorites. It makes sense. Any team that is able to lose two road games and still have a winning record and be favored at home was probably pretty good to begin with and may be undervalued off of those two losses. It’s a nice bounce back spot for the Lions.

While the Lions are coming off of a very challenging stretch, they’re about to start a very easy stretch as they host the Bears, the Buccaneers, and the Vikings in consecutive weeks. They’ll be very focused to get back on track this week and teams are 61-47 ATS as home favorites before being home favorites again in their next two weeks. On top of that, they could be double digit home favorites next week against the lowly Buccaneers, which would open up a couple other trends. Teams are 98-80 ATS since 2008 before being double digit home favorites. That doesn’t seem that powerful, but it’s way more powerful when a team is home favorites before being double digit home favorites and their opponent will next be home underdogs, as is the case here. Teams are 27-10 ATS in that spot since 1989. The early line for Detroit/Tampa Bay is 9, so that trend might not be in play, but it’s worth mentioning and the logic could still hold. The Lions have no real distractions on the horizon.

The Bears, meanwhile, have to host the Cowboys next week, speaking of them being home underdogs next week. Divisional road underdogs are 58-71 ATS before being non-divisional home underdogs. The early line on that game is 3 and teams are 57-89 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012, as a game like that represents a big distraction. That line may end up being less than 3, so that trend isn’t definitely in play, but again it’s worth mentioning and the logic still holds. The Bears have a much more challenging game next week than the Lions and that bodes well for the Lions’ chances this week.

However, I’m not confident in the Lions at all because the advanced numbers suggest they aren’t as good as their record. The Lions move the chains at a 69.47% rate, as opposed to 71.00% for their opponents, a differential of -1.53% that ranks 19th in the NFL. The Bears, meanwhile, rank 14th, moving the chains at a 75.21% rate, as opposed to 73.94% for their opponents, a differential of 1.27%. The Lions have had a tough schedule, but I don’t trust their offense to cover this line, even against the Bears’ weak defense. Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson are powerful outside weapons, but they can’t run the ball, their offensive line is a mess thanks to injuries, they have nothing at tight end or over the middle, and Matt Stafford has been erratic this season. I’m taking the Lions because the trends say to, but I’m not confident at all.

Detroit Lions 27 Chicago Bears 19

Pick against the spread: Detroit -7

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions at New England Patriots: 2014 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 12 NFL Picks, Lions, Patriots, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (7-3) at New England Patriots (8-2)

The Patriots have scored 243 points in the last 6 weeks since that embarrassing loss in Kansas City, more than 21 teams have scored all season. Over those past 6 weeks, they are moving the chains at an 82.74% rate, as opposed to 73.76% for their opponents. For comparison sake, in the first 4 weeks of the season, they moved the chains at a 66.96% rate, as opposed to 72.00% for their opponents. Their offense has gotten significantly better with the offensive line settling in and Rob Gronkowski returning to form, while their defense hasn’t really missed much of a beat without Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo. The Lions, meanwhile, haven’t been as good as their record, as their 7-3 record has been powered by a 3-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They rank 17th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 69.90% rate, as opposed to 69.66% for their opponents, a differential of 0.24%.

As a result, the public is all over the Patriots here and I love fading the public whenever it makes sense as they always lose money in the long run. I think it does here and I’m going against the Patriots this week, despite all that because the Patriots are in a bad spot. I think this is the week they slip up a little, as they typically do as big home favorites against non-conference opponents. They have never really gotten up for these types of games in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era, going 4-11 ATS as home favorites of 7 or more against non-conference opponents since 2001.

On top of that, the Lions have an easy game at home against the Bears on deck, while the Patriots have arguably their toughest game of the season in Green Bay next week. Teams are 122-93 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites, while non-divisional home favorites are 76-106 ATS before being non-divisional road underdogs over that same time period. Combining the two, teams are 100-61 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. On top of that, the Lions are currently projected to be favored by 7 points next week and touchdown underdogs are 62-38 ATS since 1989 before being touchdown favorites.

The Lions are also in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 110-73 ATS as road underdogs off a road loss since 2008, including 93-51 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight (and not 3rd straight) road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 186-189 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.28 points per game, as opposed to 260-376 in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.29 points per game. I hate going against the Patriots as well as they are playing and I think the Lions are a little overrated, but the Lions should be the right side.

New England Patriots 23 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Detroit +7

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: 2014 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 11 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (7-2) at Arizona Cardinals (8-1)

The Cardinals have the NFL’s best record at 8-1, but they’re also the most overrated team in the NFL I believe. They rank just 14th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 72.56% rate, as opposed to 70.71% for their opponents, a differential of 1.85%. They’ve been way too reliant on a +12 turnover margin this season, powered by a 68.75% rate of recovering fumbles (1st in the NFL), a 2-0 record in games decided by a touchdown or less, and a +3 return touchdown margin.

Meanwhile, the Lions are the better team, ranking 11th in that aspect. They move the chains at a 71.27% rate, as opposed to 68.68% for their opponents, a differential of 2.59%. On top of that, while they are getting healthier with Calvin Johnson coming back from injury to give this offense a boost, the Cardinals just lost their starting quarterback Carson Palmer for the season. Palmer was playing well before going down, completing 62.9% of his passes for an average of 7.26 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions. The Cardinals have had some success in the games that backup Drew Stanton has started, but not because of him as he’s completed 49.5% of his passes for an average of 6.60 YPA, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. The Cardinals shouldn’t be favored here, even if it’s only by a point.

The Cardinals are also going into their toughest game of the season next week as they head to Seattle. Non-divisional home favorites are 86-106 ATS before being divisional road underdogs since 2002. The Lions have a tough game in New England next week, but teams are actually 96-70 ATS as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2002. The only reason this isn’t a bigger play on Detroit is because the Cardinals have been tough at home recently, going 27-11 ATS as home underdogs or favorites of less than 3 since 2007. The Lions should be the right side and win straight up.

Detroit Lions 16 Arizona Cardinals 13 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Detroit +1

Confidence: Low

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