Lions

Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 10 NFL Picks, Dolphins, Lions, Uncategorized

Miami Dolphins (5-3) at Detroit Lions (6-2)

The Dolphins thrust themselves into the contender discussion last week, blowing out a solid San Diego team by the final score of 37-0. They move the chains at a 74.44% rate, as opposed to 68.83% for their opponents, a differential of 5.60% that ranks 5th in the NFL. That’s better than the Lions, who move the chains at a 71.13% rate, as opposed to 68.51% for their opponents, a differential of 2.62% that ranks 10th in the NFL. And despite that, this line says these two teams are even at 3 points, which isn’t true.

On top of that, the Dolphins are in a bunch better spot this week. While the Lions have to go to 7-1 Arizona next week, the Dolphins host the Bills. Teams are 122-91 ATS since 2002 as non-divisional road underdogs before being divisional home favorites. Conversely, teams are 73-104 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs since 2008. Combining the two, teams are 60-99 ATS since 2010 as favorites before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. The only reason this isn’t a high confidence or pick of the week type pick is because Detroit gets Calvin Johnson back this week.

Miami Dolphins 23 Detroit Lions 20 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Miami +3

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons in London: 2014 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 8 NFL Picks, Falcons, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (5-2) at Atlanta Falcons (2-5) in London

This is technically a home game for the Falcons, but it’s a neutral site game in London. Given that, we’re getting significant line value with the Lions as either the Lions are being overrated or the Falcons are being underrated. The Lions rank 7th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential, moving them at a 70.19% rate, while their defense allows opponents to move the chains at a 66.34% rate, best in the NFL. That gives them a differential of 3.85%. On the other side of the coin, the Falcons rank 23rd, moving the chains at a 72.77% rate, as opposed to 75.54% for their opponents, a differential of -2.77%. This line should be closer to 6.5 instead of 3.5. That’s significant line value.

Detroit is also in the better spot here I think as they are favorites and actually in playoff contention. It’s a small sample size, but favorites are 6-3 ATS in London games, including 6-1 ATS in their last 7. It makes sense. Teams must hate travelling to London to play a game, but if you’re actually in contention it makes it easier to get up for this game. It doesn’t help morale that they have to give up a home game for this. Favorites also tend to be more organized teams capable of playing this type of game. I like the Lions’ chances of winning by at least a touchdown.

Detroit Lions 27 Atlanta Falcons 17

Confidence: Medium

Pick against the spread: Detroit -3.5

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New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 7 NFL Picks, Lions, Saints, Uncategorized

New Orleans Saints (2-3) at Detroit Lions (4-2)

I still believe in the Saints. They’re 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a rate 81.82%, while their opponents are moving them at a 78.71%, a differential of 3.11% for the Saints. Why are they 2-3 then? Well, two of their losses came by a combined 5 points. They’ve allowed 3 return touchdowns in 5 games despite the fact that they’ve otherwise played well. They could easily be 4-1, with one loss on the road in Dallas, who is 5-1. They also have done this despite playing 3 of 5 games on the road, where they generally don’t play nearly as well as they do at home.

However, I don’t think this is the week they turn it around. I could see them losing this one and then ripping off 9 wins in their last 10 games, when they have 6 home games in 10 weeks and no really hard road game. However, going into Detroit is going to be too tough for a Saints team that has road issues. The Saints are 3-10 ATS on the road since the start of last season, as opposed to 8-1-1 ATS at home.

This Lions team is for real. While the Saints are 9th in rate of moving the chains differential, the Lions are 8th. They are only moving the chains at a 69.32% rate, but their opponents are moving the chains at a 64.88% rate, best in the NFL by a decent margin. That’s a differential of 4.44% over a whole percentage point better than the Saints. This line (2.5) suggests two things. One, that these two teams are equal. Two, that the Lions have a normal homefield advantage here over a poor road team. Neither of those two things are true. I know the Lions will be without Calvin Johnson, but the Saints will likely be without Jimmy Graham. I’m not that confident, but the Lions should be the right side.

Detroit Lions 23 New Orleans Saints 17

Pick against the spread: Detroit -2.5

Confidence: Low

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Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2014 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 6 NFL Picks, Lions, Uncategorized, Vikings

Detroit Lions (3-2) at Minnesota Vikings (2-3)

The Vikings got destroyed on Thursday Night Football last week, losing 42-10 in Green Bay to the Packers. However, there are arguments for why they’ll bounce back. The most obvious one is that quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will be back from injury and he’ll be a significant improvement over Christian Ponder, the injury fill-in last week in Green Bay. They also return home, rather than playing in Lambeau, one of the toughest places to win in the NFL. On top of that, teams usually cover off a blowout Thursday Night loss as they’ve had extra time to stew over the loss and to make the necessary adjustments. Underdogs are 24-14 ATS off a Thursday Night loss of 14 or more since 1989.

However, I still like the Lions here. Part of the reason why that aforementioned trend is powerful is because usually there is a big overreaction line movement associated with that type of nationally televised loss. In this case, that didn’t happen. In fact, the opposite did as the Lions were 4 point favorites here last week. That made a lot of sense because that would mean the Lions would be 10 point favorites at home. Considering the Vikings were 9 point underdogs in Green Bay, who lost in Detroit, that makes a lot of sense.

Now the Vikings are 1 point favorites, despite their blowout loss last week. Obviously the fact that Calvin Johnson isn’t going to play this week has something to do with that line movement, but I think that 5 points of line movement is way too much. Calvin Johnson has barely made an impact over the past two weeks with this ankle injury so they’re already essentially playing without him. They lost at home to the Bills last week, which was a huge disappointment, but they could have easily won that game if kicker Alex Henery, who is now gone, didn’t miss all 3 field goals. The previous week, they won 24-17 in New York against the Jets with Calvin Johnson making minimal impact. They could easily do a similar thing here in Minnesota. Golden Tate has done a great job in Johnson’s “absence” over the past two weeks, as the former Seahawk has caught 15 passes for 250 yards and a touchdown in the last 2 games, showing why the Lions went out and signed him this off-season.

The Lions are also in the better spot as they will be favorites next week at home for New Orleans, while the Vikings will be underdogs on the road in Buffalo. Teams are 70-100 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional home favorites before being non-divisional road underdogs, while teams are 106-72 ATS since 2008 as non-divisional road underdogs before being non-divisional home favorites. Going off of that, teams are 93-56 ATS since 2010 as underdogs before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs, including 93-57 ATS since 2008 as road underdogs before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs. The Lions should be the right side here.

Detroit Lions 24 Minnesota Vikings 17 Upset Pick +100

Pick against spread: Detroit +1

Confidence: Medium

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Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 5 NFL Picks, Bills, Lions, Uncategorized

Buffalo Bills (2-2) at Detroit Lions (3-1)

The Lions are in the better spot here. While they only have to deal with the Vikings in Minnesota next week, the Bills have to deal with the Patriots at home, a much tougher game. Teams are 52-26 ATS as non-divisional home favorites before being divisional road favorites since 2008, while non-divisional road underdogs are 56-81 ATS since 2002 before being divisional home underdogs. On top of that, teams are 71-47 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, while teams are 47-75 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs.

I think we’re also getting line value here as the league still hasn’t caught on to the fact that the Lions are one of the league’s elite teams. The Lions are 5th in rate of moving the chains differential at 5.43%. That’s consistent with how they played last season (regardless of their record), as they finished 6th in the NFL in rate of moving the chains differential at 5.42%. Meanwhile, the Bills rank 29th in rate of moving the chains differential at -7.50%.

There is one reason that this isn’t a bigger play. The Bills are road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 103-67 ATS in that situation since 2008, including 88-46 ATS when it’s their 2nd straight road game and they next play a home game. Historically, teams cover at about a 65% rate in that situation. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 173-179 in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.10 points per game, as opposed to 242-349 in their 1st of one road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 3.22 points per game. The Lions should still be the right side.

Detroit Lions 27 Buffalo Bills 13 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Detroit -7

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions at New York Jets: 2014 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 4 NFL Picks, Jets, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (2-1) at New York Jets (1-2)

This line seems too low. On paper, the Lions should be at least field goal favorites here and win by at least a field goal even on the road against the Jets. Even after beating the Packers, I still think the Lions are underrated. The Lions were one of the best teams in the league last season regardless of what their record said, as they finished 6th in rate of moving the chains differential at 5.42% and this season they are once again right around there, ranking 5th at 5.98%. However, despite that, people are still chalking up last week’s win to Green Bay not being as good as we think. The Packers, regardless of how they’ve looked through 3 games this season, have an incredibly talented offense and the Lions held them to 65.22% moving the chains. They should do something similar to a significantly less talented Jets’ offense. Both the Packers and the Lions are underrated and both should win this week on the road.

The key word is should. There are a few reasons why I’m not that confident in the Lions here, even in essentially a pick em game. One, they’ve lost stud middle linebacker Stephen Tulloch for the season with a torn ACL, which I think hurts their chances of finishing 12-4 and in first place in the NFC North, as I predicted at the start of the season. Two, it’s possible they won’t be 100% after such a big win last week and might overlook a non-conference opponent like the Jets, unlike the Packers, who are coming off of a loss and are facing a divisional opponent. Three, I’m somewhat concerned that Calvin Johnson is dealing with an injury. If he’s less than 100%, it could easily have a noticeable effect on this offense. Four, the Lions are heavily bet by the public and this seems too good to be true. This is too much of a square bet for me to feel comfortable. They should be the right side though.

Detroit Lions 20 New York Jets 13

Pick against spread: Detroit -1.5

Confidence: Low

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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 3 NFL Picks, Lions, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Detroit Lions (1-1)

The Lions looked way better week 1 in their win over the Giants than they did last week in a loss to the Panthers. Week 1, they moved the chains at an 82.76% rate, as opposed to 69.23% for the Giants and in week 2 they moved the chains 66.67% rate, as opposed to 70.97% for the Panthers. What was the difference? Well for one, caliber of opponent. The Panthers are much better than the Giants. The Packers are much closer to the Panthers in caliber than the Giants.

However, I still like the Lions here for four reasons. For one, they’re at home where they got that big week 1 victory, a 21 point domination that could have been even more of a blowout, impressive regardless of opponent. Two, the Packers haven’t really looked that good in the first 2 weeks of the season. Their week 1 blowout loss in Seattle was excusable, but they barely beat the Jets last week in Lambeau.

Their offense was much better against the Jets, moving the chains at a 77.78% rate, as opposed to 72.41% in Seattle, but their defense struggled in both cases, allowing the Seahawks to move the chains at an 85.29% rate and the weak Jets’ defense to move the chains at a 73.33% rate. I thought their defense would be better this season than last season (74.60%, 25th in the NFL) because I thought they’d be healthy, but they haven’t been and they’re missing BJ Raji, Casey Hayward, and Brad Jones to significant injuries on that side of the ball. Just because the Lions lost in Carolina to a very solid Panther team doesn’t mean they can’t bounce back at home here and defeat the Packers and their once again weak defense.

Three, Green Bay isn’t the same team on the road, more so than the average team. Since 2010, they are 29-7 and outscore opponents by an average of 10.62 points per game at home, as opposed to 21-16 and an average of 1.46 points per game on the road. Four, the Lions have no distractions on the horizon. While the Packers are in Chicago next week, the Lions have a random non-conference game against the Jets. Teams are 68-44 ATS before being road favorites of 3+ since 2012.

Part of the reason why the Lions struggled last week was probably because they had this game on deck, easily the biggest game of the season for a Detroit team trying to establish itself as a legitimate contender against a team they haven’t had a lot of recent success against (lost 15 of their last 17 against them). This is their regular season Super Bowl. I expect them to play like it and win. Further solidifying my opponent is the fact that this line continues to climb closer to 3 despite the public being all over the underdog. This has all the makings of a trap game for bettors. I’m going the other way. You should too before the line goes to 3.

Detroit Lions 34 Green Bay Packers 27

Confidence: Medium

Pick against spread: Detroit -2.5

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Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers: 2014 Week 2 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 2 NFL Picks, Lions, Panthers, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (1-0) at Carolina Panthers (1-0)

The Lions were one of my underrated teams coming into the season. I felt the same way about the Lions as I did about the Panthers last season, when I predicted they would go 12-4, win the NFC South, and get a first round bye They have so much talent and finished 6th in rate of moving the chains last season, but they’ve had big issues with losing close games and turning the ball over in the past 2 seasons. I expect them to get over that this season, especially with a new head coach, and I also think this is their most talented team in a very long time. After a week 1 35-14 blowout victory over the Giants, I feel even more confident in that assessment.

They should carry that into this week. Teams are 32-13 ATS since 2002 off of a Monday Night win of 21+ or more. Meanwhile, the Panthers did a lot last week to quell concerns that they’d decline this season after losing their top offensive linemen and essentially their entire secondary and receiving corps this off-season. Week 1, the Panthers went into Tampa Bay and won despite not having starting quarterback Cam Newton.

However, I still like the Lions a lot here despite that for four reasons. One, it’s very possible the Buccaneers just aren’t a good team. Two, it’s also very possible that the Panthers relax a little bit this week with Cam Newton back. Three, I don’t like to change much from my pre-season predictions after 1 week and I had the Panthers missing out in the playoffs in the pre-season. Four, Cam Newton could easily be less than 100% in his first regular season game with his new supporting cast and coming back from a rib problem and an ankle problem. There’s no reason the Lions should be underdogs here. I like them a good amount.

Detroit Lions 20 Carolina Panthers 13 Upset Pick +115

Pick against spread: Detroit +2.5

Confidence: High

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New York Giants at Detroit Lions: 2014 Week 1 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Picks, 2014 Week 1 NFL Picks, Giants, Lions, Uncategorized

New York Giants (0-0) at Detroit Lions (0-0)

I feel the same way about the Lions as I did about the Panthers last season, when I predicted they would go 12-4, win the NFC South, and get a first round bye. They were 6th in rate of moving the chains differential in 2013, with a differential of 5.42%. They moved the chains at a 73.92% rate, 10th in the NFL, and they allowed opponents to move the chains at a 68.50% rate, 9th in the NFL. They have the talent to be one of the best teams in the NFL, but they’ve had significant issues with close losses and turnovers over the past couple of seasons.

The Lions went 4-12 in 2012, but they were much better than their record suggested. They went 3-8 in games decided by a touchdown in 2012 and had a Pythagorean Expectation of 6.5 wins, coming from their -65 point differential. That point differential would have been much better if they hadn’t allowed 10 return touchdowns, while scoring none for themselves. If that was zeroed out, they would have had a +5 point differential and essentially been an 8-8 team.

Going off of that, they had an unsustainably poor turnover margin of -13, largely because of an unsustainably poor fumble recovery rate of 32.56%. Turnover margins (and along with that return touchdown margins) are really unpredictable and inconsistent on a week-to-week and year-to-year basis. Teams with a turnover margin of +4 in a week on average have the same turnover margin the next week as a team that had a turnover margin of -4 the previous week, a turnover margin of about +0.0. Meanwhile, teams that have a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season see their turnover margins drop by an average of about 15.8 the following season, resulting in 2.32 fewer wins.

Teams with a turnover margin of -15 or worse in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +2.04. Meanwhile, teams with a turnover margin of +15 or better in a season have an average turnover margin the following season of +3.42, a difference of about 1.38. If you’re using a team’s turnover margin from the previous season as a reason why they’re going to continue to struggle (or have success) the next season, it’s usually not going to work out well. The Lions ranked 16th in DVOA in 2012 despite their record and they were supposed to be a significantly improved team last season.

They were an improved team, going 7-9, but they still missed out on the playoffs and they still were better than their record. They still had a -12 turnover margin, driven by a 42.55% fumble recovery rate. They still went 3-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less and had a Pythagorean Expectation of 8.5 wins. The things that are supposed to even out in the long run (record in close games, fumble recovery, turnover margin) have not been evening out for this team over the past 2 seasons. The Lions fired head coach Jim Schwartz in an effort to fix this.

They replaced him with Jim Caldwell, which was kind of a weird move. The Lions will be hoping that they’re getting the coach who went 24-8 in his first 2 years with the Colts, the coach who was recommended by Peyton Manning, and the offensive coordinator who turned the Ravens’ offense around mid-season in 2012 en route to a Super Bowl victory, rather than the coach who went 2-14 in his only season with the Colts without Peyton Manning, getting fired, and the offensive coordinator who led one of the worst offenses in the league last season in Baltimore. Either way, the Lions could easily see their poor record in close games and their poor turnover margin even out in their first year under Caldwell, which would allow all the talent they have to shine.

The Giants, meanwhile, were one of the worst teams in the league last season, worse than their record. They finished the season winning 7 of their last 10, but their 7 wins came against opponents that finished a combined 42-68-2, 24-55-1 if you exclude the two playoff teams they beat who were starting backup quarterbacks (Green Bay with Scott Tolzien and Philadelphia with Michael Vick). They finished 7-9 but they had a -89 point differential, ranked 27thin DVOA, and 26th in rate of moving the chains.  They should be an improved team this year with fewer injuries, a better turnover margin, and talent coming in this off-season through free agency. However, that might not necessarily show up in their record and their two biggest off-season additions (Odell Beckham and Geoff Schwartz) won’t play in this game. If this game were week 8, I think this line would be in the double digits so I’m very happy getting it at 6, even though I wish I had locked this in a few weeks ago when it was at 4.

Detroit Lions 27 New York Giants 13

Pick against spread: Detroit -6

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Detroit Lions Fantasy Football Projections 2014

stevenlourie 2014 Fantasy Football, 2014 Fantasy Football Team Previews, Lions, Uncategorized

QB Matt Stafford (Detroit)

Stafford, the first overall pick in 2009, struggled in his first 2 years in the NFL, missing 19 games and completing 54.5% of his passes for an average of 5.92 YPA, 19 touchdowns, and 21 interceptions. However, he’s played all 48 games over the past 3 seasons, completing 60.6% of his passes for an average of 7.24 YPA, 90 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions. He’s also been better than his numbers, as he had 46 passes dropped in 2011 (most in the NFL), 49 passes dropped in 2012 (2nd most in the NFL), and 59 passes dropped in 2013 (most in the NFL). Now he gets Golden Tate and Eric Ebron added into the mix, which turns their receiving corps from a weakness into a strength. He’s an underrated fantasy asset.

4725 passing yards, 33 passing touchdowns, 16 interceptions, 100 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown (305 pts standard)

RB Reggie Bush (Detroit)

The Lions are planning on scaling back Bush’s role as a runner, as new offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi comes over from the Sean Payton coaching tree in New Orleans and plans to use Bush as they did with Darren Sproles in New Orleans. Sproles caught an average of 77 passes over the past 3 seasons. Reggie Bush has caught an average of 44 over the past 3 seasons and could catch 60 passes this season. At the same time, he could see his carries drop down from 223 to the 140-160 range, as he goes into his age 29 season.

160 carries for 720 yards, 4 total touchdowns, 60 catches for 540 yards (150 pts standard)

RB Joique Bell (Detroit)

Any loss in carries by Bush will be the benefit of Joique Bell, which Bush has said publicly he is fine with. The Lions have been a pass happy, 3-wide receiver team over the past 3 seasons, averaging 680 pass attempts over the past 3 seasons. Now they will be more of a traditional offense. They used their first round pick on Eric Ebron, which means they’ll use more two-tight end sets (though they obviously still have the ability to throw out of two-tight end sets). They signed a traditional fullback in Jed Collins, who comes with Lombardi over New Orleans. They also gave a 3-year, 9.3 million dollar extension to restricted free agent Joique Bell, who figures to lead the team in carries in their new more traditional offense. The 5-11 220 pounder is their best traditional runner.

Bell doesn’t have as many breakaway runs as Bush, but he had 65 first downs on 219 touches last season, while Bush had 68 first downs on 277 touches. The Lions could easily be getting a steal with that 3-year deal. Over the past 2 seasons, Bell has been one of the more important backup running backs in the NFL. Last season, he played 562 snaps, 23rd most in the NFL among running backs. In the past 2 seasons, he’s averaged 4.29 yards per carry, while serving as a valuable goal line back (11 touchdowns) and receiver out of the backfield (105 catches).

200 carries for 860 yards, 8 total touchdowns, 60 catches for 500 yards (184 pts standard)

WR Calvin Johnson (Detroit)

Johnson had a “down year” in 2013 with 84 catches for 1492 yards and 12 touchdowns, his lowest catch and yardage totals since 2010. That was really only because he missed 2 games with injury (after playing all 16 games in the previous 2 seasons). Last season was actually the best season of Johnson’s career in terms of yards per route run, as he averaged 2.72 yards per route run. He’s averaged 2.55 yards per route run over the past 3 seasons since Stafford broke out as a starter. He’s the #1 wide receiver in fantasy football and real football.

95 catches for 1650 yards and 14 touchdowns (249 pts standard)

WR Golden Tate (Detroit)

The Lions signed Golden Tate to a 5-year, 31 million dollar deal with 13.25 million guaranteed this off-season. Golden Tate has never had a 1000 yard season, but he’s been stuck on a run heavy team in Seattle, since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2010. He caught 45 passes on 65 attempts (69.2%) for 688 yards and 7 touchdowns on 378 routes run (1.80 yards per route run) in 2012. In 2013, he caught 64 passes on 93 attempts (68.8%) for 898 yards and 5 touchdowns on 447 routes run (2.01 yards per route run). Tate will see plenty of single coverage opposite Calvin Johnson and could run 500-600 routes in a pass heavier offense. He won’t see any downgrade in terms of his quarterback’s passing ability going from Russell Wilson and Matt Stafford and he could easily have 1000 receiving yards.

74 catches for 1020 yards and 8 touchdowns (150 pts standard)

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