Lions

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Bengals, Lions, Uncategorized

Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Detroit Lions (4-2)

These two teams are about as evenly matched as two teams can be. They are 9th (Lions) and 10th (Bengals) in my Power Rankings. They have the same record (4-2). The Lions have outscored opponents by a few more points on the season (+22 vs. +10), but the Bengals have played a slightly tougher schedule, as the Lions’ opponents are a combined 3 games under .500, while the Bengals’ opponents are a combined 2 games above .500. The Bengals are slightly better in DVOA, about 5%, as they are 9th and the Lions are 12th. Both teams have had injuries to significant players who have since returned, Leon Hall, Michael Johnson, Andrew Whitworth and Reggie Nelson for the Bengals and Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush for the Lions.

In terms or rate of moving the chains, they have very, very similar differentials, with the Bengals about 3/100ths of a percent better than the Lions. The Lions are doing it more with offense, moving the chains at a 77% rate, while their opponents move the chains at a 74% rate. The Bengals, meanwhile, have an offense that moves the chains at a 74% rate, but their defense holds opponents to a 71% rate. And to top it off, this line essentially suggests these two teams are exactly even with the Lions favored by 2.5 points at home.

The Bengals do have a trend on their side. Non-divisional road dogs are 95-61 ATS since 1989 before being non-divisional home favorites. With only a game against the Jets next on the schedule, the Bengals could be more focused than the Lions, who play the Cowboys next week. However, I’d actually go with the Lions if I had to take a side. I don’t like the way the Bengals have played on the road this season, losing in Chicago, Cleveland, and going to overtime in Buffalo. You couldn’t pay me to put money on either side though (well you probably could, but still).

Detroit Lions 23 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against spread: Detroit -2.5

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Lions, Uncategorized

Last week: 9 (+0)

Record: 4-2

The Lions are 4-2 despite playing on the road in 4 of their first 6 games. Looking at their schedule going forward, it’s conceivable they could only be underdogs two more times (home for Green Bay, @ Chicago). They host Cincinnati, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and the Giants in their other 5 home games and their other 3 road games are in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Minnesota. They have the inside track at a playoff spot, but probably need to beat Green Bay once to win the division, something that has eluded them (to put it nicely) over the past few years.

Week 6 Studs

QB Matt Stafford

TE Joseph Fauria

Week 6 Duds

None

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Detroit Lions at Cleveland Browns: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Browns, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (3-2) at Cleveland Browns (3-2)

I don’t know how this game can have a line. Calvin Johnson is a game time decision and yet this line has been at about -2.5 or -3 in favor of Detroit all week. The Lions’ offense looked miserable without Johnson last week, totaling just 286 yards and not scoring a touchdown until there were 2 minutes left in the game in a 22-9 loss to a Green Bay team with a vulnerable defense. It’s not just that Johnson is the best receiver in the NFL. It’s the Lions’ lack of wide receiver depth. With the exception of Ryan Broyles, who is still working his way back from injury, the Lions don’t have a single receiver who would be higher than 5th on the average depth chart. Johnson is as valuable as any non-quarterback can be to his team for that reason.

Even if we knew Johnson’s status, this isn’t a very easy game to predict, but Johnson’s health just makes things more complicated. The case for Cleveland is that, even if Johnson plays, he’ll have to face Joe Haden. Haden wouldn’t be able to cover Johnson if Johnson were healthy, but he’s not so even if he plays, he’ll have a shot. Haden has emerged as one of the top cornerbacks in the NFL this season (he’s always been good, but this has been his best year). Shadowing opponent’s #1 receivers, he’s allowed 18 catches for 169 yards on 38 attempts this season.

He was a big part of the reason why the Browns, in a similar situation as home dogs, beat the Bengals, who similarly have one dominant receiver and little else. Offensively, Brian Hoyer is out for the season for the Browns, but Brandon Weeden looked good in relief of him last week. Remember, he didn’t have Josh Gordon at his disposal when he started the year as the starter. Gordon has been dominant in his 3 games since returning from suspension, catching 18 passes for 303 yards and 2 touchdowns. With him and Jordan Cameron, Weeden has weapons to work with.

The case for Detroit, however, is that Detroit is a legitimate playoff team who should be able to bounce back off of a road loss in a tough environment and beat an inferior opponent. Teams tend to cover at a higher rate in their 2nd road game than their first because it gives them an opportunity to get used to being away from home. It’s also very possible that, even at less than 100%, Haden can’t cover Johnson. He’s that good. And as for Weeden, well maybe he’s still just Brandon Weeden and his strong half in relief of Hoyer last week was a fluke against a banged up Buffalo defense. One trend also supports the Lions, as home dogs are 52-74 ATS before being double digit dogs on the road. The Browns travel to Green Bay next week and might not be as focused as they need to be in order to pull an upset as a result. I’m definitely not confident either way, but I like the Lions right now.

Detroit Lions 17 Cleveland Browns 13

Pick against spread: Detroit -3

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Lions, Uncategorized

Last week: 8 (-1)

Record: 3-2

It’s amazing how powerless the Lions’ offense is without Calvin Johnson, but it’s understandable considering he’s the best receiver in the NFL and everyone else is a bunch of scrubs. Whether or not they can win in Cleveland this week probably depends on his availability. He’s one of the most valuable non-quarterbacks in the NFL, after guys like JJ Watt and Adrian Peterson.

Week 5 Studs

None

Week 5 Duds

LG Rob Sims

LE Willie Young

DT Nick Fairley

MLB Stephen Tulloch

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Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Lions, Packers, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (3-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-2)

The Packers are 1-2, but this isn’t representative of the type of team they are. They started last year 2-3 and finished 11-5. They’ll be a very good 10-12 win team again this season. The Lions, however, are also very good. I had a 10 win projection for them at the start of the season and that seems very reasonable for them right now. Given that, I want to take Detroit because I think this line is a little high, but there are reasons for taking Green Bay as well.

I think this game means a lot more to the Packers. The Lions will obviously want to get the upset in Green Bay, a place where they haven’t had much success for a really long time. They also are coming off of a bye and are starting to get guys back from injury, including Eddie Lacy. We could easily see a game by the Packers that re-establishes themselves as one of the elite teams in the NFL against a quality Detroit team. I’m not confident either way, but the Packers should be the right side.

Green Bay Packers 31 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against spread: Green Bay -7.5

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 5 NFL Power Rankings, Lions, Uncategorized

Last week: 9 (-1)

Record: 3-1

I’ve had the Lions higher than the Bears all season and the Lions did a very good job of supporting me this week, not only winning, but winning when they had a very powerful situational trend working against them (divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs are 16-48 ATS since 2002). They have a very good chance to be a playoff team this season.

Week 4 Studs

LE Israel Idonije

DT Ndamukong Suh

SS Louis Delmas

Week 4 Duds

TE Brandon Pettigrew

LE Willie Young

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Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 4 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 4 NFL Picks, Bears, Lions, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (3-0) at Detroit Lions (2-1)

The Bears are 3-0, but they were favored in all 3 games. Their “vaunted” defense has forced a league low 9 punts all season. Yes, they have 11 takeaways, but their combined punts forced and takeaways is just 20, which is also one of the worst in the NFL. In terms of preventing their opponents from moving the chains on any given 1st and 10, they are right around 75%, very middle of the pack, which is right around where their improved offense is as well. They can’t continue relying on takeaways and recovering 75% of fumbles they force. It’s very possible they miss Lovie Smith’s defensive leadership. Over 30 veterans Charles Tillman, Julius Peppers, and Lance Briggs are all disappointing. And now they’re without Henry Melton. This is a very shaky 3-0.

Detroit, meanwhile, is 2-1, but I think they’re playing a little bit better. They are converting 1st and 10 for another first down about 76% of the time, while allowing their opponents to do so about 74% of the time and they are ahead of Chicago in terms of differential there. They also played better against Minnesota than Chicago, the one mutual opponent these two teams have faced thus far. The Lions are no longer suffering from the problems that plagued them last season (turnovers, poor special teams, inability to win close games, inability to stop opponents from scoring defensive touchdowns) and that has allowed their talent to shine through like it did in 2011. I don’t think they’re significantly better than the Bears, but I think they’re a little bit better and that these two division rivals will split the season series with the home team winning each time.

At least that’s what I originally thought until I realized Detroit is in one of the most negative trends situations. Divisional home favorites before being divisional road dogs are 16-48 ATS since 2002. I don’t know why exactly, but it’s very possible the Lions could be caught looking forward to Green Bay next week. It’s not enough for me to take Chicago and I think it’s possible the trend won’t apply here because Chicago is 3-0 and not someone to be overlooked, but I can’t have confidence on Detroit with that trend lingering. Maybe Chicago wins in Detroit and they get them back in Chicago later this year and they split the season series that way, I don’t know. But Chicago can beat Detroit in Detroit without being better than Detroit.

Detroit Lions 24 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against spread: Detroit -3

Confidence: None

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Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Lions, Uncategorized

Last week: 8 (-1)

Nate Burleson’s injury is a pretty ridiculous story, but it also might be a blessing in disguise for the Lions. Burleson’s numbers might look good (19 catches for 239 yards), but he has one of the easiest jobs in football, with Calvin Johnson opposite him, Matt Stafford throwing to him, and one of the pass happiest coaching staffs in football. The 32-year-old showed a noticeable lack of explosion on the field and the now healthy Ryan Broyles, who will take his spot, could be a serious upgrade.

Week 3 Studs

WR Calvin Johnson

Week 3 Duds

C Dominic Raiola

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Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Commanders, Lions, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (1-1) at Washington Redskins (0-2)

The Redskins aren’t making the playoffs in the loaded NFC after starting 0-2, but this wasn’t unpredictable. It’s going to take Robert Griffin a year or so to get back to where he was, just like it took Tom Brady when he tore his ACL in 2008. Mike Shanahan insists that the Redskins haven’t abandoned the read option and QB runs because of Griffin’s knee, but because of the game situation, as they’ve frequently been trailing and by a lot of points. That’s a very valid point, but it’s still very possible that Griffin isn’t comfortable running like he once did and either way, it’s probably going to remain a problem going forward.

This is one of the worst defenses in the NFL so they’re going to have to pass more than maybe they’d like. They’re starting two rookies in the secondary who are playing like it and the rest of the unit, outside of Kerrigan and Orakpo, is not much better. The Lions have the personnel to tear through their defense like Green Bay or Philadelphia did and establish another big lead. That will put the Redskins’ offense in situations where they can’t run their game plan and they probably wouldn’t be able to run it as effectively like they’d like to anyway because of Griffin’s injury situation. He’s just not as explosive as he was last year and his footwork and throwing mechanics are a mess.

The Redskins shouldn’t be favored here. The Lions are still a borderline playoff team in the loaded NFC in my eyes and one of the top-10 teams in the NFL overall. They only went 4-12 last year because of bad luck and other unsustainable things like inability to recover fumbles, turnovers going for touchdowns, poor special teams play, strength of schedule, and inability to win games decided by a touchdown or less. I don’t hold a loss in Arizona against them that much because Arizona is a capable football team and their week 1 win over Minnesota remains impressive.

Reggie Bush might miss this week with injury, but I’m not so sure that Joique Bell isn’t just as good. Bell was 2nd in the NFL in yards per route run among running backs last season, behind only Darren Sproles, and also averaged 5.0 yards per carry on 82 carries. This year, he had 10 catches for 105 yards on 13 targets and 37 routes run, along with 56 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 carries. He’ll have a big game against Washington’s poor defense if pressed into action.

The Lions are also in a situation that favors them as they’re road dogs off of a road loss. Teams are 88-52 ATS in that situation since 2008 and that trend hits about 65% historically, regardless of what year you use to cut off your sample size. I’m fairly confident they’ll pull off the “upset” win here in Washington this week.

Detroit Lions 31 Washington Redskins 24 Upset Pick +105

Pick against spread: Detroit +1

Confidence: Medium

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Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Lions, Uncategorized

Last week: 9

No shame in losing a close game in Arizona. The Cardinals are a sneaky team this year. The Lions still have the talent to make the playoffs. Reggie Bush might miss this week with injury, but I’m not so sure that Joique Bell isn’t just as good. Bell was 2nd in the NFL in yards per route run among running backs last season, behind only Darren Sproles, and also averaged 5.0 yards per carry on 82 carries. This year, he had 10 catches for 105 yards on 13 targets and 37 routes run, along with 56 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 carries.

Week 2 Studs

LT Riley Reiff

C Dominic Raiola

RE Ezekiel Ansah

DT Ndamukong Suh

Week 2 Duds

CB Dwight Bentley

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