NFL Offseason

New York Jets re-sign OLB Calvin Pace

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Jets, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Calvin Pace looked pretty done after the 2012 season, after recording 8 sacks in 2011 and 2012 combined and grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd worst ranked 3-4 outside linebacker in 2012. The Jets cut Pace going into his age 33 season last off-season, but brought him back on a cheap one year deal. That paid off as Calvin Pace had a career high 11 sacks. Some people mistake that for having the best year of his career, which isn’t true as you can’t just look at sack numbers.

He graded out slightly below average on Pro Football Focus, thanks to just 3 quarterback hits and 21 quarterback hurries. That being said, it was clearly a better year than 2012. He’s now going into his age 34 season so he’s nothing but a stopgap starter, but the Jets needed one as they search for a long-term solution opposite Quinton Coples and they’re paying him appropriately, giving him 5 million over 2 years. It’s not a fantastic value, but this was a solid re-signing.

Grade: A-

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New York Giants sign S Stevie Brown

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Giants, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Stevie Brown, a 2010 7th round pick by the Raiders, played a combined 163 snaps from 2010-2011, but broke out in 2012 with the Giants, intercepting 8 passes and playing 846 snaps. He wasn’t quite as good as the 8 interceptions would suggest because you can’t go just on pure interception totals, but he was still an above average safety on Pro Football Focus, grading out as their 26th ranked safety in 2012. However, he tore his ACL and missed the entire 2013 season.

That made it very tough to value him. He’s still just a one year wonder and one whose season wasn’t as good as the 8 interceptions would have suggested and he’s coming off of a serious injury, but he’s also proven he can be an above average starting safety for a team that needs safety help with the big salaried Antrel Rolle aging and Will Hill once again in trouble. I think the Giants absolutely handled this contract situation perfectly, giving him a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal with another million available in incentives. This was a smart move.

Grade: A

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Philadelphia Eagles sign S Malcolm Jenkins

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Eagles, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Malcolm Jenkins has had some decent years in his 5 year career, but ultimately he’s failed to live up to his billing as the 15th overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft. He struggled mightily as a slot cornerback as a rookie before being moved to safety, where he was an average starter according to Pro Football Focus in both 2010 and 2011. However, in 2012, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ worst ranked safety and in 2013 he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 65th ranked safety out of 86 eligible.

He has versatility to play both safety and slot cornerback, but the Eagles already have Brandon Boykin so he’ll be a pure safety in Philadelphia. However, the Eagles are paying him like an above average starting safety, which is something he’s never been. This 3-year deal is worth 16.25 million with 8.5 million of that guaranteed. He’ll help fill a need, but it’s a big overpay.

Grade: C

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Minnesota Vikings sign CB Captain Munnerlyn

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized, Vikings

The undersized Captain Munnerlyn (5-8 186) has been a late bloomer in his career, after struggling mightily early in his career after getting drafted in the 7th round in 2009. Very similar to the way the similarly sized Tim Jennings developed, Munnerlyn has emerged as an above average cornerback in the NFL. He had a solid 2012 year and the Panthers wisely brought him back on a cheap one year deal for 2013 after the market devalued him. Munnerlyn ended up being a big part of the reason why the Panthers had such a strong defense, doing his best Antoine Winfield impression (showing in coverage on the slot and the outside, as a run stopper, and as a blitzer) grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked cornerback, though “only” their 25th ranked cornerback in terms of pure coverage grade.

Now Munnerlyn goes to Antoine Winfield’s old team, the Vikings, who struggled mightily defensively last year in the first year of Winfield’s retirement. Munnerlyn does his best coverage work on the slot, but he can also play outside and he’s above average as a run stopper and blitzer for a cornerback. He’ll presumably start opposite Xavier Rhodes and move inside to the slot in sub packages in the role in which Adam Jones thrived in Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer’s system when Zimmer was the defensive coordinator in Cincinnati. I like the schematic fit and I like the price (11.25 million over 3 years with 4.45 million guaranteed) for the Vikings to fill this need. This was a smart move.

Grade: A

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Washington Redskins sign DE Jason Hatcher

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Commanders, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Jason Hatcher, now going into his age 32 season, has been a late bloomer in the NFL, but he’s a versatile defensive lineman who can really get after the quarterback. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 10th ranked 3-4 defensive end in 2011 as a talented reserve on 428 snaps and then he became a starter in 2012. In 2012, he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th ranked 3-4 defensive end and in 2013 he was their 8th ranked 4-3 defensive tackle.

He’ll be going back to a 3-4 in Washington and will serve as a much needed difference maker on that defense. He’ll play on a defensive line with Barry Cofield and fellow ex-Cowboy Stephen Bowen, serve as a needed 3rd starter and probably leading the line in snaps played. 27.5 million over 4 years is a very solid deal for him, though his age is a slight concern. That being said, only 10.5 million of this contract is guaranteed and nothing after the 1st season. This could end up being a 2-year, 13.5 million dollar contract if he declines quickly and they’d endure a 4.5 million dollar cap hit (with 2 million in cap savings) by cutting then. Having that kind of out is helpful when dealing with an older player.

Grade: A-

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Jacksonville Jaguars sign G Zane Beadles

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Jaguars, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Every off-season it’s the same thing. Bad teams make bad moves and good teams make good moves. I understand that the Jaguars have to pay a premium to free agents to get them to sign with them, but this is still too much money for the inconsistent Beadles. The 6 million dollars in annual value on this deal is the 10th highest in the NFL. He’s not a top-10 guard.

Beadles has been a starter since being drafted in the 2nd round in 2010, but he’s been massively inconsistent. As a rookie in 2010, he was very solid as a guard, but struggled mightily as a tackle. In 2012, he had his best season, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 17th ranked guard. However, in 2011 he was 73rd out of 78 eligible and in 2013 he was 51st out of 81 eligible. All in all, he’s about an average starting guard, but in no way does he deserve 6 million yearly, not even from a guard needy team that needs to pay a premium to sign free agents.

Grade: C

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Miami Dolphins sign CB Cortland Finnegan

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Dolphins, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

I rarely give F’s for signings, but this one is an F. Actually, it’s more like a WTF. Cortland Finnegan was a train wreck last season with the Rams. He only played 367 snaps in 7 games for a variety of reasons, including injuries and poor performance, but he still graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked cornerback. He allowed 26 of 34 completion for 353 yards, 4 touchdowns, and an interception, a QB rating against of 136.0 that was 3rd worst among eligible cornerbacks. He also committed 6 penalties. There’s a reason why the Rams cut him 2 years into an absurd 5-year, 50 million dollar deal.

That was the worst season of his career, but he’s going into his age 30 season so he’s probably not getting any better any time soon. He was great in his contract year with the Titans in 2011, which is why he got such a big deal, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 3rd ranked cornerback. However, that’s the only year in the last 4 years that he’s been even remotely good. He graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 4th worst ranked cornerback in 2010 and ranked 86th out of 113 eligible cornerbacks in 2012. In what world did he deserve 11 million over 2 years? Who else was paying him that? I would have thought he’d be looking at deals close to the minimum, but I guess not.

Grade: F

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New York Giants sign G Geoff Schwartz

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Giants, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Geoff Schwartz is one of the most underrated players in football. He played well in 2010 with the Panthers, in 11 games at guard and 5 games at tackle. His composite grade would have been 5th among guard and 13th among tackles on Pro Football Focus. However, he missed the entire 2011 season with injury and was relegated to reserve work in Minnesota in 2012, impressing in limited action. In 2013 with the Chiefs, he played 549 snaps at left guard, right guard, and right tackle and his composite grade would have been 7th among guards and 20th among tackles, despite the limited playing time.

Schwartz is only going into his age 28 season and will be a full-time starter in New York with the Giants, who were desperate on the offensive line, particularly at guard, where Schwartz figures to play. Now that he’ll be a full-time starter, Schwartz has the ability to emerge as a top-10 or even a top-5 guard in the NFL. At 16.8 million over 4 years with 6.2 million guaranteed, that’s a steal. The Giants are lucky the rest of the NFL hasn’t caught up with how good Schwartz is because this was one of the best moves of the off-season.

Grade: A

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Seattle Seahawks sign DT Tony McDaniel

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Seahawks, Uncategorized

This is very similar to the deal that the Buccaneers gave Clinton McDonald. Like McDonald, Tony McDaniel was a little thought of defensive tackle before this season, playing 590 snaps in 2011 and 2012 combined, but broke out this season with the Seahawks (though McDaniel came from Miami, while McDonald moved up Seattle’s depth chart). McDaniel is a couple of years older, but I actually like this deal better than McDonald’s for 4 reasons.

The first is that it’s less money. While McDonald got 12 million over 4 years with 4.75 million guaranteed, McDaniel got 5.75 million over 2 years with just the 1.25 million dollar signing bonus guaranteed. That’s less money per year, fewer years, and less guaranteed money, which offsets the minor age factor (they’re both under 30 anyway). The second is that McDaniel stays in Seattle, while McDonald goes to Tampa Bay. There’s no guarantee that McDonald will be as good outside of Seattle’s system. We don’t have to find out with McDaniel.

Three, McDaniel was actually the better of the two players last season. They’re different players, as McDonald is a sub package player who specializes in getting to the quarterback, while McDaniel is a base player who specializes in stuffing the run. However, McDaniel was Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked defensive tackle (including 4th against the run), while McDonald was Pro Football Focus’ 27th ranked defensive tackle (including 16th as a pass rusher).

The final reason is that McDaniel has more of a history of success than McDonald. Neither has much, but while McDonald literally came out of nowhere, playing 794 snaps from 2009-2012 after getting drafted in the 7th round in 2009 and getting cut as a final cut, McDaniel had some decent years as a reserve in Miami. For instance, in 2010 he was Pro Football Focus’ 11th ranked 3-4 defensive end on 426 snaps. Both deals were good deals, but all in all, I like McDaniel’s deal better. This was a great signing for a Seattle team that needed to keep McDaniel after losing McDonald.

Grade: A

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers sign DT Clinton McDonald

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Buccaneers, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Clinton McDonald was a 7th round pick in 2009 and played just 794 snaps in his career before this season. He was actually cut by the Seahawks in final cuts and re-signed in mid-September. Given that, it might seem weird that McDonald is getting a 12 million dollar deal over 4 years from the Buccaneers now here in March, but McDonald had a very solid season as one of the cogs on a Seattle defensive line that helped them win the Super Bowl.

McDonald was Pro Football Focus’ 27th ranked defensive tackle, excelling as a pass rusher and grading out above average overall. He’s still a one year wonder and you don’t know how he’ll do outside of Seattle’s system, but 3 million dollars yearly, with 4.75 million guaranteed, is not very much money. That’s a small enough gamble for the defensive tackle needy Buccaneers to bet that McDonald will continue to be a solid contributor at defensive tackle. The price is right here.

Grade: A-

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