NFL Offseason

New York Jets sign QB Michael Vick

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Jets, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Michael Vick has been on the decline in every season since 2010, which makes sense considering how reliant he is on his legs and how many injuries he’s suffered in the past. He put up decent numbers in 7 games last season, completing 54.6% of his passes for an average of 8.62 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 3 interceptions, while rushing for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns on 36 carries. However, a closer examination shows that much of that was Chip Kelly’s system making him look better than he was, much like it did with Nick Foles.

In 2012, he completed 58.1% of his passes for an average of 6.73 YPA, 12 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while rushing for 332 yards and a touchdown on 62 carries. That’s probably more accurate and now he’s two years older, going into his age 34 season. He’s played all 16 games once in 10 seasons in the NFL and has missed 22 games over the past 4 seasons.

That being said, he might still be a top-32 quarterback in the NFL and the money is right (5 million over 1 year) when you compare it to deals that Josh McCown (2 years, 10 million), Matt Moore (2 years, 8 million), Matt Cassel (2 years, 10 million), and Chad Henne (2 years, 8 million) have gotten over the last two off-seasons. I think Vick is better than all 5 of those quarterbacks. He’s probably also better than Geno Smith, with whom he is being brought in to compete. Either he’ll win the starting job or Geno Smith will beat him out and be a better quarterback for it. It’s not a huge signing for the Jets or anything, but it was the right one at the right money.

Grade: A-

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Pittsburgh Steelers sign S Mike Mitchell

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Steelers, Uncategorized

Mike Mitchell was a 2nd round pick of the Raiders in 2009 based on his freakish athleticism (4.39 40 at 6-1 216), but he never really put it together in Oakland, playing an average of 394 snaps per season, maxing out at 508 snaps, and grading out below average on Pro Football Focus in each of his last 3 seasons. He only played 334 snaps in 2012, his contract year, as a reserve and was forced to settle for a one year deal in Carolina worth about the veteran’s minimum.

He turned out to be a brilliant signing for Panthers GM Dave Gettleman as he became a 14-game starter (920 total snaps) at safety, a huge position of need for the Panthers, flashing often and showing his athleticism. He wasn’t spectacular, but he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 35th ranked safety, slightly above average, and was a key part of a surprisingly good Carolina team, led by a stifling defense.

Now he gets a 5-year, 25 million dollar deal from the Steelers. He fills a position of need for the Steelers, slotting it at safety next to Troy Polamalu, in place of the departed Ryan Clark, but this is the definition of buying high. 12 months ago no one wanted Mitchell and now after one year he’s worth 5 million yearly? It’s not like he was incredible last year and much of his strong play was as a result of a dominant Carolina front in front of him, which, by the way, won’t be following him to Pittsburgh. Buy high deals like this rarely work out.

The only reason this isn’t a terrible deal is because there’s barely any guaranteed money, as the Steelers guaranteed just 6 million, which is his 1st year’s salary. If Mitchell doesn’t work out, the Steelers can get out of this deal after one year and have it be just a 1-year, 6 million dollar contract with the cap hit split over 2014 and 2015 (2.2 million in 2014, 3.8 million in 2015). That’s still too much for Mitchell and there’s no guarantee the Steelers are humble enough to admit their mistake if it comes to it, but that is worth mentioning. The small guarantee saves this deal.

Grade: C+

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Indianapolis Colts sign WR Hakeem Nicks

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Colts, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Hakeem Nicks, a 2009 1st round pick, looked like one of the best young receivers in the NFL from 2009-2011. He ranked 8th in yards per route run in both 2009 and 2010, doing so on just 344 routes run as a rookie and then developing into a starter with 453 routes run in 2010. In 2011, he “only” ranked 22nd in yards per route run, doing so 572 routes run, thanks to the development of Victor Cruz opposite him, but he was still a big part of the Giants’ Super Bowl team.

However, since that 2011 season in which he caught 76 passes for 1192 yards and 7 touchdowns, he hasn’t gone over 1000 yards. His development seems to have stagnated over the past 2 seasons thanks to a variety of lower body injuries and he’s never played all 16 games in a season, missing 10 games over the past 5 seasons and being limited in many others. He’s ranked 41st and 33rd in yards per route run over the past 2 seasons respectively, combining for just 109 catches for 1588 yards and 3 touchdowns over that time period. Last year was especially bad as he didn’t score all season and struggled with his chemistry with Eli Manning. 7 passes thrown to him were picked off and Manning’s quarterback rating when throwing to him was 57.0, 7th worst among eligible wide receivers.

All that being said, he still has plenty of talent, which still flashes, and even his down years weren’t awful. He’s only going into his age 26 season, so he was well deserving of this one year prove it deal worth 3.6 million dollars (with another 400K available through per game incentives). This is a much better value than the 5.5 million the Eagles gave to Jeremy Maclin, who is coming off of a completely lost season with a torn ACL and who has never had a 1000 yard season in his career. Nicks will slot in as the 3rd receiver in Indianapolis behind TY Hilton and Reggie Wayne and provide valuable insurance for Wayne, a 36-year-old coming off of a torn ACL. He’ll be an obvious upgrade over Darrius Heyward-Bey, who got a similar deal last off-season (1-year, 2.5 million). This is a much better value than that.

Grade: A

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New England Patriots re-sign WR Julian Edelman

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Patriots, Uncategorized

I thought that Julian Edelman should have been higher on the Patriots’ off-season to do list than Aqib Talib. Talib is an overrated player who can’t stay healthy and was sure to be overpaid on the open market. A cornerback trio of Alfonzo Dennard, Logan Ryan, and Kyle Arrington would have been passable (though the signings of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner certainly help), while a Patriots’ receiving corps without Julian Edelman would have been a huge question mark.

Brady said it himself after the end of last season that Edelman was his only reliable target last year. They couldn’t let him get away. Edelman caught 105 passes for 1056 yards and 6 touchdowns last year and was even better in the 2nd half of the season once he and Brady perfected their chemistry, catching 57 passes for 592 yards and 4 touchdowns in the final 8 games. He may have been replaceable, like Patriots’ slot receivers before him, but I highly doubt Brady and the Patriots wanted to have to try to make another Edelman on the fly next season like they tried to make a new Welker on the fly in 2013 before Edelman stepped up. It’s just so much easier to keep him, especially with the receiving corps in flux.

He’s still a one year wonder and his injury history is concerning, which is why it’s great they were able to keep him for just 17 million over 4 years (compare that to 28.5 million over 5 years for Danny Amendola last off-season). You can also compare that to the 12 million over 2 years that Wes Welker got from the Broncos last off-season. Edelman did a great job imitating Welker last season, especially down the stretch, and he’s 5 years younger, only going into his age 28 season. The Patriots made a mistake giving Amendola so much money, but they made the right move last off-season letting Welker walk because of Edelman and now they’ve made the right move by locking him up long-term.

The common narrative is that Edelman was just a target hog last season, but that’s not the whole story. His 146 targets were 10th in the NFL, but his catch rate of 71.9% was tied for 4th best in the NFL, higher than Welker (67.0%) with the Broncos last year and Welker with the Patriots in 2012 (71.1%). He might not have the same numbers next year with fewer targets, if Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski can stay healthy and Aaron Dobson can step up, but he was still too valuable to let go. Credit the Patriots for getting him at the right value after letting him test the open market.

Grade: A

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Green Bay Packers sign OLB Julius Peppers

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Packers, Uncategorized

This contract is officially 26 million over 3 years (with another 4 million available through incentives), which seems pretty weird for a player going into his age 34 season. However, this deal has no guaranteed money after the first year, in which he’ll make 8.5 million. The Packers can easily cut him after the season, avoiding cash payments of 9.5 million in 2015, and actually save 7 million on the cap. 3.5 million (1 million in cash and a third of the 7.5 million dollar signing bonus) is the cap hit for 2014, while the other 5 million would hit the cap in 2015 if he were released (as opposed to 12 million, 9.5 in cash, 2.5 million in dead money, if he were to be on the 2015 roster). It’s essentially a 1-year, 8.5 million dollar deal which the Packers can spread on the cap over 2 seasons.

That being said, this is still way too much to pay for Julius Peppers. I like the fit of Peppers in Green Bay. Peppers is aging and no longer able to play as many snaps as he once did. He’ll rotate snaps with Nick Perry and, to a lesser extent, Clay Matthews at rush linebacker and provide needed depth at a position where Perry and Matthews have missed a combined 24 games over the past 2 seasons combined. However, Peppers is not worth 8.5 million a year anymore.

A once dominant edge rusher, who graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in every season from 2008-2012 and in the top-10 among 4-3 defensive end in every season from 2008-2011, Peppers has graded out 18th and 36th among 4-3 defensive ends over the last 2 seasons respectively. Last season, he actually graded out below average and that 36th place finish came out of just 52 eligible at the position.

That’s undoubtedly due to his age and he’s unlikely to improve going forward. He’s also unfamiliar with the 3-4, after playing in a 4-3 his whole career. That’s a lesser concern that the age, especially if the Packers go to more of a hybrid scheme this year, but still a concern. Combine that with his age and this signing doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Remember that John Abraham, arguably a better player than Peppers when he was released and hit the open market in a similar stage in his career last off-season, got just 4.6 million over 2 years on a deal he signed last July. I’m shocked Peppers got this much money and got signed in March.

Grade: C-

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Oakland Raiders sign OT Austin Howard

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Raiders, Uncategorized

This is an overpay for Austin Howard, who has been a solid, but unspectacular right tackle for the Jets in 2 seasons as a starter, grading out 31st among offensive tackles on Pro Football Focus in 2012 and 47th in 2013. Giving him 30 million over 5 years with 15 million guaranteed looks bad in comparison to some of the deals given to right tackles recently. Sebastian Vollmer (4 years, 17 million), Andre Smith (3 years, 18 million), and Phil Loadholt (4 years, 25 million) all were re-signed last off-season and all 3 of them are better than Howard.

However, the Raiders have a ton of cap room and money to spend to get to the salary floor and they’re hardly a premium destination so they can get away with overpaying guys more than most teams. I’d much rather see them overpay someone who can be a young building block for the team than appropriately pay someone who is 30+ and won’t be around much longer, which is much of what they’ve done this off-season (Matt Schaub, Antonio Smith, LaMarr Woodley, Justin Tuck, Donald Penn). Austin Howard is only going into his age 27 season can be a fixture at right tackle for a few seasons.

Grade: B-

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Oakland Raiders sign WR James Jones

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Packers, Uncategorized

James Jones seemed like a prime candidate to get overpaid this off-season, coming over from Green Bay’s explosive passing offense and as a member of a wide receiver class in free agency that lacked difference makers after Eric Decker and Golden Tate. He has been a featured wide receiver in an explosive pass offense for the past 2 seasons and hasn’t really done much with it, totaling 784 receiving yards on 664 routes run in 2012 and 817 receiving yards on 544 routes run in 2013.

The 14 touchdowns he caught in 2012 are an outlier as he’s totaled 23 touchdowns in his other 6 seasons in the league combined. He’s a marginal starting receiver that the Packers made look better than he was and now he’s going into his age 30 season. Credit the market for not falling into the trap and to the Raiders for scooping him up at a reasonable rate, 11.3 million over 3 years. It’s not a fantastic value or anything, but Jones is a passable wide receiver and under 4 million yearly is about right for him.

Grade: B+

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Houston Texans trade QB Matt Schaub to Oakland Raiders

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Raiders, Uncategorized

Trade for Oakland: I understand the Raiders need to spend a certain amount of money over the next 3 seasons to get to the salary floor for the 2013-2016 period (after being unable to spend much cash last season because of all the dead money on their cap). However, the Raiders, for some reason, have seemed much more interested in shelling out this cash to over 30 veterans rather than re-signing their own talented young building blocks and signing talented under 30 players from other teams.

I would have much rather seen them overpay under 30 building blocks a little bit, giving them the financial incentive they needed to play for a franchise with as poor a recent history as the Raiders, rather than signing guys in the tail end of their careers. Right now their best young player is probably Sio Moore. I like Sio Moore, but the Raiders need to be in a better position than this. Stefen Wisniewski, their center, is another young building block, but they’ve shown no urgency in getting a long-term deal done with him ahead of his contract year in 2014.

Jared Veldheer and LaMarr Houston, two of their few young building blocks from last year, are out, while guys like Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, Antonio Smith, and Donald Penn, who won’t be around at any time the Raiders can hope to be good, are in. Vance Walker and Pat Sims, two underrated cogs in the machine and part of the reason why the Raiders were passable defensively last season, are not with the team any more.

Walker is now in Kansas City, while Sims remains on the open market. Tuck, Smith, and Woodley are solid players, but I don’t think going from Houston, Walker, and Sims to them makes them more talented on the defensive line, just older. Donald Penn is an upgrade over what they had at left tackle for most of last season with Veldheer hurt, but he’s an obvious downgrade from a healthy Veldheer.

I really liked the Tarell Brown move as I think he’ll provide a massive upgrade at cornerback for cheap, albeit only for one year. Austin Howard, though he was overpaid, will upgrade right tackle. Matt Schaub, who they traded for today, also will represent an upgrade over guys like Matt McGloin and Terrelle Pryor, but the Raiders are now projected to have 30+ year old starters at 9 of 22 positions in 2014, a weird spot for a team whose #1 priority needs to be building for the future. Letting talented young players go and replacing them with aging veterans really seems to lack direction. Now, they seem to be going all in for a 6-10 season next year, even at the expense of playing time for youngsters.

All that being said, I’m not as down on Matt Schaub as others. He’s an obvious upgrade over Matt McGloin and Terrelle Pryor. Last year was miserable for Schaub, as he completed 61.2% of his passes for an average of 6.45 YPA, 10 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions, getting benched regularly for the likes of Case Keenum and TJ Yates and putting up a quarterback rating of 73.0, close to 18 points lower than the season before. He’s going into his age 33 season so he’s on the decline, but I don’t know if the decline is quite as rapid as last year made it look. He’s not the 90s QB rating guy he was from 2008-2012 anymore, but that doesn’t mean that his low 70s QB rating from last year wasn’t somewhat fluky.

He would have been a smart stopgap starter at quarterback on the open market for a team that needed one. But to trade a draft pick (even a late round one) and pay him 11 million dollars when he would have been available for no draft pick compensation and probably in the neighborhood of 5-7 million yearly on the open market in a week doesn’t make any sense. The Raiders were worried he’d sign elsewhere so they panicked and trade for him. Panicking because you think you’re going to lose out on Matt Schaub is not a smart move. He’s not a top-20 quarterback anymore.

Grade: C

Trade for Houston: As for Houston, this is an obvious win for them. They were going to cut him to save 4 million in cap space and 11 million in cash. Instead, they are able to get something for him and still take on the cap and in cash. Their compensation in return for Schaub is minimal, but it’s better than nothing.

Grade: A

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Denver Broncos sign DE Demarcus Ware

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Broncos, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

DeMarcus Ware has had a fantastic career. From 2008-2011, he was a top-4 3-4 outside linebacker on Pro Football Focus in every season. However, he’s going into his age 32 season and he’s shown some cracks and signs of decline over the last 2 seasons. In 2012, he was “just” Pro Football Focus’ 8th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker and last season he missed the first 3 games of his career, as injuries piled up, and finished 8th among 4-3 defensive ends.

It’s really nitpicking, but he’s heading into the twilight of his career and he’s unlikely to go anywhere but down in terms of his abilities going forward. He’s still a very good pass rusher, but the Broncos are paying him here like the elite pass rusher he isn’t anymore. I was shocked to see Ware get this kind of deal going into his age 32 season, worth 30 million dollars over 3 seasons with the first two seasons at 20 million dollars guaranteed. The Broncos are guaranteeing someone 20 million for their age 32 and 33 season. No non-quarterback deserves that. If anyone comes close, it might be Ware, but he doesn’t deserve that. His average salary of 10 million yearly is 6th among defensive ends (both 4-3 and 3-4) and he’s not that caliber of a player anymore.

Grade: C+

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Jacksonville Jaguars sign DE Chris Clemons

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Jaguars, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

Chris Clemons struggled last year on 585 snaps, but that was because he was coming off of a torn ACL suffered in January. That, combined with his age (going into his age 33 season), his salary, and the presence of Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett in Seattle, got him cut. However, he was Pro Football Focus’ 4th, 10th, and 11th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2010, 2011, and 2012 respectively. When healthy, he can really play and he’ll be a great fit in Jacksonville, where he reunites with Gus Bradley, Jacksonville’s current head coach and the defensive coordinator in Seattle during those 2010, 2011, and 2012 seasons.

There are three concerns with this deal. One is obviously Clemons’ age, as he goes into his age 33 season. Two is obviously the torn ACL he suffered last January. He’ll be about 20 months removed from that by week 1 of the 2014 season, but there’s a chance that, combined with his age, he’s never close to the same player again. Fortunately, there is just 5.475 million guaranteed on this deal so it could be just a 1-year, 5.475 million dollar deal if it doesn’t work out (the max value is 17.5 million over 4 years, with 4.5 million available through incentives).

The third concern goes back to the age. The Jaguars have signed 3 defensive ends this off-season (Clemons, Jason Babin, and Red Bryant) who are all over 30 this off-season. Like the Raiders, they’re a bad team with a ton of cap space and, like the Raiders, I don’t really understand the direction they’re going. It’s still a strong deal though. If I had to guess, Clemons has an obvious average season this year for the Jaguars and the money is right.

Grade: A-

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