NFL Offseason

Seattle Seahawks re-sign DE Michael Bennett

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Seahawks, Uncategorized

Every off-season it’s the same thing. Teams with bad general managers like the Vikings overpaid guys like Everson Griffen (5 years, 42.5 million), while teams with good general managers like the Seahawks are able to get guys like Michael Bennett (4 years, 28.5 million) on good values. Part of the reason why they were able to get Bennett for so cheap is because they won the Super Bowl last year and Bennett wanted to stay with a contender, but the reason they won the Super Bowl was because they were well built. This kind of thing fuels itself and the Seahawks are definitely in a good situation.

This 28.5 million dollar deal over 4 years has 16 million guaranteed. The Seahawks signed the underrated Bennett last off-season on a ridiculous 1-year, 4.8 million dollar deal and he was a big part of their Super Bowl run. He seems to be rewarding them for taking a chance of him and for the success they were able to have last season. Bennett was Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 4-3 defensive end last season. In 2011 and 2012, he was 7th and 7th respectively. He’s the only 4-3 defensive end to grade in the top-7 in each of the last 3 seasons. He deserves to be paid like a top-5 defensive end, but this contract is only 12th among defensive ends in average salary. This is a steal.

Grade: A

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St. Louis Rams re-sign G Rodger Saffold

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Rams, Uncategorized

Rodger Saffold originally signed a 5-year, 42.5 million dollar deal with the Raiders, which would have made him the 2nd highest paid left tackle this off-season on a loaded left tackle market, which would have been an atrocity. However, Saffold failed his physical when Raider team doctors (possibly at the behest of an angry Marc Davis, the Raiders owner) said Saffold would need surgery immediately on his shoulder. Leave it to the Raiders to have to be saved from a massive deal by a failed physical.

After that mess was over, Saffold has now ended up signing back with the Rams for 31.7 million over 5 years. He’ll presumably play right guard with the Rams because they have reportedly felt all along that that’s his best position in the NFL. Saffold, a 2010 2nd round pick, has played left tackle, right tackle, and right guard in his career and, while he’s had some success at both left and right tackle, he was borderline dominant in 6 starts at right guard down the stretch for the Rams last season. Injuries are a concern, especially after the failed physical, as he’s missed 17 games over the past 3 seasons combined, but the Rams apparently feel much more comfortable with his shoulder than the Raiders and they desperately need right guard help after cutting Harvey Dahl. They needed offensive line help in general.

31.7 million over 5 years is a lot to pay for a guard. Assuming he will be a guard, he’d be the 10th highest paid guard in the NFL in terms of average salary. He could be a top-10 guard, and one with the versatility to play both tackle positions if necessary. He certainly looked like one down the stretch last season, but that was only in 6 starts and his injury history matters. They may have overpaid a bit, especially after the failed physical in Oakland deflated his market. I don’t know who else would have signed him to this kind of contract. That being said, it’s not a terrible deal. The worst part might be that they guaranteed 19.5 million to someone this injury prone. That’s only 1.5 million less than the Raiders guaranteed.

Grade: B-

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Oakland Raiders sign OT Donald Penn

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Raiders, Uncategorized

This contract is way better than the one the Raiders gave to Rodger Saffold (5 years 42.5 million). The Raiders lucked out when Saffold failed his physical, though it is pretty pathetic that the Raiders needed a failed physical to prevent them from making a massive mistake. That being said, Donald Penn at 9.6 million over 2 years, with only 4.2 million in the first year guaranteed, is a very solid deal. Penn was cut by the Buccaneers because he was overpaid and they had a chance to get a better offensive tackle (Anthony Collins) for less money.

However, he’s still a solid player who graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 31st ranked offensive tackle last season and who has graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 6 seasons. He’s going into his age 31 season and he has a history of weight problems, but he’s still a solid starting left tackle and he’s being very reasonable paid. That being said, it’s another case of the Raiders signing an over 30 player. What is their end game with this rebuild? They had plenty of cap room. Why didn’t they bring back Jared Veldheer to man the blindside or go after another top left tackle?

Grade: B+

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Oakland Raiders sign DT Antonio Smith

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Raiders, Uncategorized

This is another one of the Raiders’ weird signings of 30+ year old players (currently 5 starters on defense are 30+). As I’ve said, this is a weird approach for a team that needs to focus on a two or three year rebuild. However, I like this move a little bit more than the Justin Tuck and LaMarr Woodley deals. It’s a little bit cheaper (9 million over 2 years) and they’re getting a similar caliber player to Tuck and Woodley. Smith is going into his age 33 season, but he’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 8th, 6th, and 18th ranked 3-4 defensive end in each of the last 3 seasons respectively. He’s especially excelled as a pass rusher, grading out 2nd, 2nd, and 5th respectively purely in pass rush grade over those 3 seasons respectively.

One concern is that he might be too small to play defensive tackle in a 4-3 at 6-4 285. He was already a liability against the run in Houston’s 3-4, but now he’ll be even closer to the center of the formation so his size could be an even bigger issue. Before 2011, he really was a player without a position, before Wade Phillips found the perfect role for him in Houston’s 3-4, giving him plenty of opportunities to be a one gap penetrator and get after the quarterback, even at the expense of the run. I don’t know how well he’ll fit schematically in Oakland, but I think this signing has a chance to be a good one, even if the Raiders’ entire off-season direction confuses me.

Grade: B+

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Oakland Raiders sign DE LaMarr Woodley

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Raiders, Uncategorized

Like the Justin Tuck deal, the money is about right here for LaMarr Woodley. He was overpaid in Pittsburgh and he isn’t the same player he was in 2010, when he graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 5th ranked 3-4 outside linebacker and he hasn’t played more than 641 snaps in any of the last 3 seasons, missing 14 games combined over that time period. However, he’s still graded out above average on Pro Football Focus in each of the last 3 seasons, including a 10th place finish this past season. He’s not an every down player anymore and he’s going into his age 30 season, but he can still be a very solid player on about 600 snaps for the next couple of seasons, which is the length of this deal (2 year, 12 million). There is some concern that he hasn’t played in a pure 4-3 since college, but it probably won’t be a huge issue.

All that being said, like with the Justin Tuck deal, I really don’t understand what direction the Raiders are going in this off-season. They’re using all their cap space to sign players who are 30+ (Justin Tuck, LaMarr Woodley, Antonio Smith, Donald Penn) to replace talented young players that they let leave (Jared Veldheer, LaMarr Houston, Vance Walker, Pat Sims). They haven’t overpaid anyone and I really like the one year deal that they signed Tarell Brown to, but the Raiders need to be focusing on a two-three year rebuild and this isn’t really the way to do it.

Grade: B

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Oakland Raiders sign DE Justin Tuck

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Raiders, Uncategorized

The price here is right for Justin Tuck, 11 million over 2 seasons. Tuck was a dominant defensive lineman from 2008-2010, grading out 4th, 6th, and 9th among 4-3 defensive ends, but he was only an average starter in 2011 and 2012. However, he had a great contract year in 2013, grading out 7th as Pro Football Focus ranked 4-3 defensive end. He’s going into his age 31 season so he’s probably on the decline, but I still believe he can be an average or above average starter over the next couple seasons and this deal is only for a couple of seasons.

That being said, I think it’s kind of weird the way the Raiders are approaching the off-season. I loved the cheap one year signing of Tarell Brown, but other than that, their approach has been weird. They let LaMarr Houston and Jared Veldheer, young, talented players in their prime of their career, leave on reasonable deals when they had so much cap room and then they used that cap room to sign over 30 veterans who won’t be around anymore at any point in time when the Raiders could even hope to be good.

They also didn’t re-sign Vance Walker and have made no effort to bring back Pat Sims, two underrated players who were part of the reason why the Raiders were even passable defensively last year. 5.5 million yearly to Justin Tuck isn’t a bad deal and neither is 6 million yearly to LaMarr Woodley (which I’ll get into next), but wouldn’t it make more sense to give Houston 7 million yearly (or 8 million yearly if that’s what it would have taken for him to stay in Oakland for their rebuild)?

Grade: B

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Dallas Cowboys sign DT Henry Melton

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Cowboys, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

The Cowboys desperately needed defensive line help this off-season, especially defensive tackle help. After losing Jason Hatcher to the Redskins, there might not have been a single team needier for any single position than the Cowboys were for a defensive tackle. Things were so desperate for the Cowboys at defensive tackle this season that Nick Hayden not only started at defensive tackle, but lead all Cowboy defensive linemen in snaps played, this coming after he played a combined 22 snaps in 2011 and 2012. He predictably struggled, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 2nd worst ranked defensive tackle. Their depth was awful as well. Hatcher was their only even functional defensive tackle.

However, the Cowboys are in one of the worst cap situations in the NFL. To even get to the point where they can sign their draft picks and depth, they had to push a significant amount of cap hit to future years (when they’ll be in the same situation) and get arguably their best defensive player, DeMarcus Ware. When I saw they signed Henry Melton, I knew it could be a great fit, considering his history with defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli and the Cowboys’ need at defensive tackle, but I was worried they added another big contract to their cap, which would make their team even more top heavy and make it even harder for them to get under the cap in the future.

Fortunately, they were able to give Melton a very team friendly deal. It’s essentially a one-year deal with an option for the final 3 seasons. The first season is essentially a one-year prove it deal for a player who missed most of last season with a torn ACL, after being franchise tagged by the Bears in the off-season. He’ll make 2.25 million guaranteed worth up to 5 million in incentives (in per game roster bonuses and statistical milestones).

The Cowboys will then have an option for 2015-2017 at a combined 24 million (7.5 million in 2015 and 2016 and 9 million in 2017). This is a very team and cap friendly team for a Cowboys team that desperately needed one. Melton, meanwhile, will serve as an adequate replacement for Jason Hatcher if healthy, though they still need another defensive tackle or two (perhaps through the draft). Melton was Pro Football Focus’ 16th ranked defensive tackle in 2011 and 7th ranked defensive tackle in 2012, both seasons under Rod Marinelli. The torn ACL he suffered last season is a concern, but he’s still young (going into his age 28 season) and doesn’t have much of a history of injury. This was a very good move for the Cowboys in their current situation.

Grade: A

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Green Bay Packers re-sign CB Sam Shields

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Packers, Uncategorized

A lot of cornerbacks have been overpaid this off-season, Aqib Talib (57 million over 6 years), Vontae Davis (39 million over 4 years), and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (35 million over 5 years). However, I’m shocked that Sam Shields was also overpaid (39 million over 4 years) for two reasons. One, the Packers usually do a great job of not overpaying guys in free agency as Ted Thompson is one of the best in the business. Two, unlike the aforementioned three cornerbacks, Shields didn’t have his best season in his contract year.

He’s definitely flashed in the past, but he was Pro Football Focus’ 52nd ranked cornerback this past season. I would have thought they could have gotten him cheaper as a result. I’ve held off on grading this deal until now because there was a chance that the increased salary cap meant we might see a lot of head scratching deals this off-season and I like to grade on a curve and grade moves against each other. That hasn’t been the case. When you compare this deal to the deals received by Brent Grimes (32 million over 4 years) and Alterraun Verner (26.5 million over 4 years), it easily looks like one of the worst moves of the off-season.

Sam Shields has definitely flashed in the past, grading out as Pro Football Focus’ 15th ranked cornerback in 2012 and dominating down the stretch as an undrafted rookie in 2010 on the Packers’ Super Bowl run. However, he also graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 92nd ranked cornerback in 2011 and then there was last year. He’s also never played a full 16 game season, missing 11 games in 4 seasons, including 6 games missed in his dominant 2012 season. That’s a very inconsistent history.

There’s no way he deserves to be the NFL’s 3rd highest paid cornerback in the NFL in terms of average annual salary (9.75 million). The only reason this deal isn’t a D or worse in terms of my grade is because they only guaranteed 15 million and can cut him after the first season if he struggles, though at a cap loss of 250K. However, even a 1-year, 15 million dollar deal is too much for Shields and I highly doubt they’ll be bold enough to cut their losses after this season if the situation presents itself.

Grade: C-

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Minnesota Vikings re-sign DE Everson Griffen

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized, Vikings

This move was made right before the start of free agency and it was a real head scratcher. However, I’ve held off on grading it until now because there was a chance that the increased salary cap meant we might see a lot of head scratching deals this off-season and I like to grade on a curve and grade moves against each other. That hasn’t been the case. When you compare this deal (42.5 million over 5 years) to the deals received by LaMarr Houston (35 million over 5 years), Michael Bennett (4 years, 28.5 million) and Michael Johnson (43.75 million over 5 years), it easily looks like one of the worst moves of the off-season.

Michael Johnson was Pro Football Focus’ 13th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012 and 4th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013. LaMarr Houston was Pro Football Focus’ 19th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2011, 9th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012, and 11th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013. Michael Bennett was Pro Football Focus’ 7th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2011, 7th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012, and 5th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013. Meanwhile, Everson Griffen has one career start. It’s not quite as bad as that sounds because he’s been a talented reserve and he has upside.

However, those supporting this deal seem to be overestimating his upside. Sure, he has 14 sacks over the past 2 seasons despite being a reserve, but he’s actually played as much as some starters in terms of pass rush snaps with 423 pass rush snaps played in 2012 and 449 pass rush snaps played in 2013. All of a sudden, he doesn’t seem as efficient as he once did. He only ranked 29th out of 62 eligible in pass rush efficiency among 4-3 defensive ends in 2012 and only ranked 21st out of 52 eligible in pass rush efficiency among 4-3 defensive ends in 2013.

He’s graded out as Pro Football Focus’ 36th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2012 and 19th ranked 4-3 defensive end in 2013. With Jared Allen likely gone, I said in the Vikings’ off-season preview that I expected him to re-sign with the Vikings on a multi-year deal that paid him like a starting caliber player because I knew he had upside. I expected him to get something like 25 million over 5 years. That being said, the notion that he will suddenly become a dominant defensive lineman because he’s now a starter is absurd. And even if he somehow does, I don’t know who else would have paid him 42.5 million over 5 years with 20 million dollars guaranteed. They overpaid him by about 17.5 million dollars over 5 years.

Grade: F

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Chicago Bears sign DE Willie Young

stevenlourie 2014 NFL Free Agency, Bears, NFL Offseason, Uncategorized

This was one of the underrated moves of the off-season and the Bears are having an underrated off-season, re-signing their own guys at reasonable rates (Charles Tillman, Tim Jennings, Jay Cutler, Roberto Garza, Matt Slauson) and overhauling the defensive end position, which was much needed. They got a fair amount of cap space by cutting Julius Peppers and replaced him with an upgrade in LaMarr Houston. Now they upgraded the other defensive end position, signing Willie Young to replace Corey Wootton, and they got a great deal. They will only pay him 9 million over 3 years, a very fair value for an above average starting defensive end.

Willie Young, a 2010 7th round pick, was a valuable reserve from 2010-2012, playing 618 snaps total. His best season as a reserve was 2011. He only played 259 snaps, but if he were eligible for Pro Football Focus’ rankings, he would have ranked 14th among 4-3 defensive ends despite his very limited playing time. No one played fewer snaps and graded out as highly as he did. He wasn’t nearly as good in 2012, as he actually graded out below average, but he got a chance to start in 2013 and made the most of it, playing 801 snaps and grading out as Pro Football Focus 16th ranked 4-3 defensive ends.

He played the run well and rushed the passer well, with 4 sacks, 8 hits, and 48 quarterback hurries. Those hurries were 3rd most at the position. He’s still somewhat of a one year wonder, given that he was only a one-year starter, but he showed enough as a reserve that I’m fairly confident he can continue being a solid starter. At 9 million over 3 years and no guaranteed money after 3.95 million in the first year, this is absolutely worth the risk.

Grade: A

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