NFL Picks

Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs: 2018 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (7-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-2)

The Chiefs are in a very tough spot this week, as they have to turn around and play their biggest remaining regular season game next week against the Chargers on Thursday Night Football. Favorites typically struggle before a short week anyway, going 55-73 ATS since 2012, but that should especially be the case in this one, as I can’t imagine the Chiefs aren’t spending some time on the Chargers this week. On the other side, the Ravens are distraction free, with only a home game against the Buccaneers on deck.

I wish I trusted Ravens’ quarterback Lamar Jackson more in this kind of game though. If the Ravens were starting a healthy Joe Flacco, I’d bet them just because I know what to expect from him, but Jackson’s 3-0 record has come against a pretty easy schedule and I just don’t know what to expect from him in a game where he’ll have to be more aggressive as a passer to keep pace with an explosive Kansas City offense.

Kansas City’s defense has not been very good this year, but they could get Eric Berry back this week finally and even against an underwhelming defense it’s easy for young quarterbacks to make mistakes if they feel like they need to keep up with an offensive juggernaut. I’m taking Baltimore and hoping their defense can keep it close against a Kansas City team that probably won’t bring their best effort this week, but I wouldn’t recommend betting on this with the line under a touchdown.

Kansas City Chiefs 27 Baltimore Ravens 23

Pick against the spread: Baltimore +6.5

Confidence: Low

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals: 2018 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (4-8) at Arizona Cardinals (3-9)

I’ve picked against the Lions a lot recently, but that’s because they’ve been playing a lot of teams with winning records and they historically have not done well against teams with winning records in the Matt Stafford era. That changes this week, with the Lions facing the 3-9 Cardinals, the first team they’ve faced since week 4 with a losing record. Since 2014, they are 19-12 ATS against teams with a losing record and they went 17-4 straight up against non-playoff teams between 2016 and 2017. I like their chances of continuing that this week.

The Lions’ offense has taken a lot of hits as the season has gone on, with right guard TJ Lang, wide receiver Marvin Jones, and running back Kerryon Johnson sidelined with injuries and slot receiver Golden Tate now in Philadelphia, but their defense has gotten significantly better as the season has gone on. It hasn’t been that noticeable because of their tough schedule, but defensive end Ezekiel Ansah is back healthy and playing well, defensive tackle Damon Harrison has provided a big boost against the run since being acquiring from the Giants, and young defensive linemen A’Shawn Robinson and Da’Shawn Hand have gotten more playing time and have played well.

That should be more noticeable this week against an Arizona team that is arguably the worst in the league. They pulled the stunning upset in Green Bay last week, but those kind of upset victories tend to be flukes more than anything, as teams are just 15-30 ATS over the past 30 years after a win as 13+ point underdogs. That win also came at a cost, as starting wide receiver Christian Kirk went down for the season with a foot injury, joining left tackle DJ Humphries, right guard Justin Pugh, and top linebacker Josh Bynes as recent injury casualties. The Cardinals rank dead last in first down rate differential at -7.77% and are even worse without those four. I like the Lions a lot in a game in which they basically just need to win to cover. This is a smaller bet at -3.

Detroit Lions 20 Arizona Cardinals 13

Pick against the spread: Detroit -2.5

Confidence: High

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers: 2018 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Atlanta Falcons (4-8) at Green Bay Packers (4-7-1)

I picked the Falcons last week as 1-point home favorites against the Ravens because the Falcons were getting stud middle linebacker Deion Jones back from injury and the line didn’t seem to reflect that. The Falcons lost that game 26-16, but the defense was not the reason, as they allowed a first down rate of just 33.77%, after leading the league in first down rate allowed at 43.02% through the first 11 games of the season. The Falcons actually won the first down rate by 4.01%, but lost because they went 2-9 on 3rd down and 0-1 on 4th down.

As well as the Falcons’ offense has played this season, that’s unlikely to continue, so I think this team is still a little underrated. They have a top-10 offense (8th in first down rate at 39.44%) and their defense is more respectable with Jones back in the lineup. They’re also in a great spot this week. While they get to face the Cardinals next week, a game that should provide no distractions for the Falcons this week, the Packers have a rivalry game with the Bears in Chicago that they could be looking ahead to. Underdogs like the Falcons are 92-55 ATS since 2014 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs.

All of this sounds like I’m going to be betting on the Falcons, but I’m not because the Packers have a significant talent advantage and may finally stop underachieving this week, after bottoming out with a home loss to the Cardinals that got Mike McCarthy fired. The Packers have consistently ranked high in my roster rankings and still rank 4th this week, despite injuries to key players like Bryan Bulaga and Mike Daniels, but are just 4-7-1 on the season. In past years, their issue has been defense, but they rank 15th in first down rate allowed at 35.83% and have standouts like Kenny Clark, Blake Martinez, and Jaire Alexander that are playing at Pro-Bowl levels.

The offense has been the bigger problem this season, as they rank just 18th in first down rate at 36.13%, despite having Aaron Rodgers under center for most of the season. Rodgers has had some young receivers this season, but he also has a legitimate #1 option in Davante Adams, a starting running back that is averaging 5.73 yards per carry, and a good pass protecting offensive line. He also has Randall Cobb back from injury as of last week and tight end Jimmy Graham still playing reasonably well despite a thumb injury. If this offense finally breaks through this week, the Packers could cover this 5-point line with ease, so I’m keeping this to a low confidence pick.

Green Bay Packers 31 Atlanta Falcons 27

Pick against the spread: Atlanta +5

Confidence: Low

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears: 2018 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (11-1) at Chicago Bears (8-4)

The Bears lost last week in New York to the Giants, but I don’t really hold that against them that much. The Giants have been playing better football over the past month and the Bears were starting a backup quarterback in a terrible spot, with this huge home game against the Rams on deck. They were nowhere near 100% last week, but they still won the first down rate battle by 4.35%, taking the game to overtime, despite losing the turnover battle by 2. Because of that, the Bears remain #1 in first down rate differential on the season at +6.73%, despite playing with a backup quarterback for two games. Their 8-4 record is good, but they’ve been even better than that suggests, as all 4 of their losses came by less than a touchdown (by a combined 14 points) and they won the first down rate battle in 3 of those 4 losses.

Bears starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky is not even listed on the injury report this week, after practicing in full all week, and I expect a much better effort from the Bears in a much bigger game. The Rams are obviously a tough opponent and they’re better defensively with Aqib Talib back, but I don’t think they deserve to be favored by a full field goal here in Chicago. The strength of schedule difference between these two teams worries me, as the Bears have had the easiest schedule by DVOA, while the Rams have had the 9th toughest, but even with that taken into account I have this line calculated about even. Chicago isn’t worth a huge bet, but I think they have a good chance to win straight up and I like getting field goal protection at +3.

Chicago Bears 24 Los Angeles Rams 23 Upset Pick +135

Pick against the spread: Chicago +3

Confidence: Medium

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders: 2018 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4-1) at Oakland Raiders (2-10)

I’ve mentioned this a couple times this season already, but the Steelers historically come out flat on the road as big favorites against a non-divisional opponent. We’ve already seen the Steelers lose in Denver and almost lose in Jacksonville this season, but this actually dates back years. Since Mike Tomlin took over as head coach in 2007, the Steelers are 7-20 ATS as non-divisional road favorites of more than a field goal and they are 5-16 ATS as road favorites of more than 4.5 since Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie year in 2004.

We lost some line value in this game in the past week, with the Steelers going from 12.5-point favorites on the early line down to 10-point favorites this week, as a result of the Raiders playing the Chiefs close, the Steelers losing to the Chargers at home, and heavy sharp action on the Raiders this week, but we’re still getting enough points to play with for Oakland to be worth a bet, especially with feature back James Conner out for the Steelers.

The Raiders obviously have issues, but I have this line calculated at Pittsburgh -7, even before taking into account their struggles in this spot historically. Making this an even tougher spot for the Steelers is the fact that they have New England after this game, so the Steelers almost definitely aren’t going to be fully focused on the Raiders this week. I expect them to come out flat and maybe even let the Raiders take a halftime lead before eventually pulling out a relatively close victory in the second half. The Raiders are worth a small bet as long as this line is double digits.

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 Oakland Raiders 17

Pick against the spread: Oakland +10

Confidence: Medium

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans: 2018 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) at Tennessee Titans (6-6)

The Jaguars pulled off a big home upset victory last week over the Colts, shutting them out in a 6-0 victory as 4.5-point underdogs. It was a reminder that, while their defense hasn’t quite as good as last season, it’s still largely the same personnel. Statistically they’ve still been one of the better units in the league, allowing opponents to pick up first downs at a 32.93% rate, 4th lowest in the NFL. However, I don’t think that win really improves their outlook for the rest of the season.

The Jaguars’ extreme offensive issues were also shown in that game, as the Jaguars failed to get it in the end zone at home against an average at best Indianapolis defense and actually moved the ball at a lower rate (20.37%) than the Colts did (26.76%). The Colts actually had 5 drives in Jacksonville’s territory, but failed to score because of three failed 4th downs, an interception, and time running out at the end of the game.

Cody Kessler didn’t turn it over in his first start, but he has a much lower floor as a starter than Blake Bortles, as he is a very limited downfield thrower who holds the ball for far too long. The Jaguars will be able to run the ball better this week with Leonard Fournette back from suspension, but their offensive line has been decimated by injury and their receiving corps has struggled to get separation, so Kessler isn’t going to get much help from his offensive supporting cast.

Despite the Jaguars’ offensive issues, this line shifted from Jacksonville +6 on the early line last week to +4 this week. That could be in part because the Titans barely squeaked out a victory at home against the Jets as favorites last week, but the Titans played better than the final score suggested, as they managed to win despite throwing a pick six and allowing a blocked punt. The Titans had 22 first downs to 15 for the Jets, winning the first down rate battle by 18.59%, and holding the Jets’ offense to only field goals. The Jets joined the Jaguars as the two teams not to make it inside their opponent’s 10 yard line all game last week.

I wouldn’t be shocked if the Jaguars were kept from getting deep into opponent’s territory again this week. The Titans’ strong defensive performance last week was no fluke, as they rank 5th in the NFL in first down rate allowed at 33.65%, just one spot behind the Jaguars. Given that, this line is way too low at -4. The Jaguars have also had inconsistent effort this season and might not be as focused on a short week after a big win. It’s a small sample size, but teams are just 4-10 ATS on Thursday Night Football after a divisional home upset win as underdogs of 3+. This is only a medium confidence pick because the Titans have been so inconsistent this season, but I like their chances at home on a short week.

Tennessee Titans 20 Jacksonville Jaguars 10

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -4

Confidence: Medium

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2018 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (6-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8)

This is a tough one. On one hand, we’ve lost a lot of line value with the Colts. The Jaguars were just 2.5-point home underdogs against the Colts on the early line last week and -2.5 road underdogs in Indianapolis a few weeks ago (in a game they ended up only losing by 3), but now they are -4.5 point home underdogs. The Jaguars have had a disappointing season, but they’re better than their 3-8 record suggests, as their defense is still one of the best in the league, ranking 4th in first down rate allowed at 33.58%.

It’s not quite as dominant as it was last year and it certainly hasn’t played well enough to compensate for their offense, but they still rank a respectable 19th in first down rate differential at -1.49%. Their record looks worse than they’ve played because they are just 1-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less and because they have one of the worst turnover margins in the league at -11. Both of those metrics tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis and year-to-year basis though, especially turnover margin.

Case in point, these Jaguars had a -16 turnover margin in 2016 and then a +10 turnover margin in 2017 before this season’s struggles in that department. The Jaguars have also played a much tougher schedule than the Colts. Their opponents are a combined 52% on the season, as opposed to 45% for the Colts. The Jaguars obviously lost in Buffalo last week, but they were in a tough spot, sandwiched between a home game against the Steelers and this home game against the Colts. Now against a hated divisional foe, they’ll probably bring more effort and they kept it close against the Steelers the last time they did that.

On the other hand, the Jaguars have lost so much on offense this year and are starting mediocre backup quarterback Cody Kessler under center, having seen enough of Blake Bortles’ turnover proneness. Kessler is less turnover prone, but he really struggles to make plays downfield because of his lack of arm strength and he’s shown himself to be very injury prone thus far in his career.

Kessler’s supporting cast is also as bad as it gets, as the Jaguars are without running back Leonard Fournette with a suspension and added talented left guard Andrew Norwell to injured reserve this week, joining their top-3 offensive tackles, their top-3 tight ends, talented center Brandon Linder, and #1 receiver Marqise Lee on the sidelines. I can’t take the Colts with any confidence because we’re not getting a good line, but it’s the Colts or nothing this week, as the Jaguars are currently one of the worst teams in the NFL.

Indianapolis Colts 23 Jacksonville Jaguars 17

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis -4.5

Confidence: None

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles: 2018 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (6-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-6)

The Eagles have had a disappointing season at 5-6, but they’ve been better than their record. Five of their 6 losses have come by a touchdown or fewer, despite the fact that they’ve had one of the worst turnover margins in the league at -8. Turnover margins tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so the Eagles should have a better turnover margin going forward, which will be noticeable on the scoreboard, even with key players like Jordan Hicks, Ronald Darby, and Rodney McLeod out for the year with injury. In terms of first down rate differential, they rank 11th at +2.11% and have won the first down rate battle in two of their losses. They could easily be about 7-4 right now, in which case I expect they’d be favored by more than a touchdown in this game.

The Eagles have just one win by more than a touchdown all season, but this is one of their easiest games, as the Redskins have a lot of issues, despite a 6-5 record. Their record is largely the product of a +9 turnover margin and a 3-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and they rank just 23rd in first down rate differential at -2.94%. They’re even worse than that suggests, as they are missing starting quarterback Alex Smith and stud right guard Brandon Scherff for the season with injury, leaving them to start backup Colt McCoy with a weak offensive supporting cast. Given the talent gap between these two teams, the Eagles should be favored by closer to 10 points this week, so we’re getting some line value with them at -6.

Unfortunately, the Eagles are in a terrible spot, with back-to-back tough divisional games, this game against the Redskins and then next week’s game in Dallas. The Redskins, on the other hand, only host the Giants next week. Underdogs are 90-55 ATS since 2014 before being favorites when their opponent will next be underdogs. On top of that, divisional home favorites are just 18-34 ATS since 2008 before being divisional road underdogs. The Eagles are still the pick for pick ‘em purposes, but I can’t be confident in them this week.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Washington Redskins 17

Pick against the spread: Philadelphia -6

Confidence: None

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks: 2018 Week 13 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (2-9) at Seattle Seahawks (6-5)

The Seahawks have a solid record at 6-5, but this is not nearly the Seahawks team we’ve seen in recent years. Despite their record, they rank 22nd in first down rate differential at -2.78%. Their offense has been solid, moving the chains at a 37.03% rate, 14th in the NFL, but their defense, a shell of its former self, has allowed opponents to move the chains at a 39.81% rate, 27th in the NFL. Their defense has been on the field for fewer snaps than any defense in the league, as a result of the offense going 9 of 12 on 4th down on the season and only turning over the ball 9 times, fewest in the NFL, but 4th down percentages and turnovers tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so they won’t always be able to depend on those to make life easy for their defense.

Given that, this line is a little high at 10. The 49ers have major issues at the quarterback position, but they have a capable defense (17th in first down rate allowed) and a strong running game. They’re just 2-9 largely because of their -17 turnover margin, 2nd worst in the NFL, but, like I said, turnovers tend to be inconsistent on a week-to-week basis. Given their quarterback situation, it wouldn’t surprise me if the 49ers continued turning the ball over frequently, but their defense should have more takeaways than they’ve had (5 in 11 games) just from random chance alone. We’re not getting enough line value to bet the Seahawks, but this line is a few points too high.

Seattle Seahawks 24 San Francisco 49ers 17

Pick against the spread: San Francisco +10

Confidence: Low