NFL Picks

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2017 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)

The Bengals started the season by not scoring a touchdown in two home games, but they fired their offensive coordinator and have played a lot better since. They nearly won in Green Bay, albeit against a banged up Green Bay team, then they blew out the Browns in Cleveland, and then they beat a solid Bills team. Their offense is going to be inconsistent because their offensive line isn’t good, but they have one of the better defenses in the league and they’ve moved the ball a lot better in recent weeks. Their poor start to the season isn’t irrelevant, but they were playing a pair of tough defenses (Houston and Baltimore) and the players hated ex-offensive coordinator Ken Zampese’s play calling.

The Steelers, meanwhile, are coming off of a huge win in Kansas City, but the week before that they were blown out at home by the Jaguars. Their offense hasn’t been what we’re used to from them, but they still have a dangerous pair of offensive playmakers and a strong offensive line and their young defense has come of age this season. Unfortunately, they come into this game missing a pair of important players, missing right tackle Marcus Gilbert and defensive end Stephon Tuitt. We’re not getting a ton of points with the Bengals as 6 point underdogs, but, given the Steelers’ injury situation, we are getting some line value with Cincinnati.

Cincinnati should also be completely focused on this game, given that they’re coming off of a bye and only have the Colts on deck. The Bengals will likely be 6+ point favorites at home in that game and underdogs of 6 or more, like the Bengals are here, are 73-62 ATS since 2002 before being favorites of 6 or more. There’s not quite enough here for me to bet on the Bengals, but they should be the right pick at +6. Under 6, this should be a no confidence pick.

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against the spread: Cincinnati +6

Confidence: Low

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers: 2017 Week 7 NFL Pick

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New Orleans Saints (3-2) at Green Bay Packers (4-2)

The Saints are only 3-2, but they’re one of the better teams in the NFC. Their 2 losses came against the Sam Bradford led Vikings and the New England Patriots, in the first 2 weeks of the season. Since then, they’ve defeated the Panthers, Dolphins, and Lions, all by 14 or more points. They finished last season 10th in first down rate differential (with a +9 offensive touchdown differential) and they seem to be even better this season. Their +29 point differential is 6th in the NFL and they’ve only played 5 games.

Drew Brees continues to lead an explosive offense and their defense has been significantly improved this season, led by Defensive Player of the Year candidate Cameron Jordan and Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Marshon Lattimore. They still have issues on that side of the ball, but they might be good enough defensively to go on a run in the NFC if the offense continues to play at a high level. The Falcons rode a similar formula to the Super Bowl last season.

This game against the Packers could have been a NFC Championship preview, but Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone last week against the Vikings, putting his season and the Packers’ playoff chances in jeopardy. 2015 5th round pick Brett Hundley will make his first career start this week and he’s obviously a major downgrade at the quarterback position. The line has subsequently moved from GB -6.5 last week on the early line to NO -4 this week, a whopping 10.5 point line movement.

I would have been all over the Saints at +6.5 against a healthy Aaron Rodgers, but I still think there’s line value with New Orleans -4 against the led Hundley Packers, especially since the Packers will be without Morgan Burnett as well. Burnett has been easily the Packers’ best defensive back this season, so the Packers should have a very tough time stopping Brees and company, which is going to make life very tough for Hundley. The Saints, by contrast, are as healthy as they’ve been all season and they should be able to get an easy win here.

New Orleans Saints 28 Green Bay Packers 20

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -4

Confidence: Medium

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: 2017 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (5-1) at Oakland Raiders (2-4)

The Raiders enter this game on a 4-game losing streak and are dealing with a much-talked-about injury to quarterback Derek Carr, who was not 100% last week in his return from a back injury and will likely not be 100% again this week on a short week. However, the Chiefs are in a tough injury situation as well, just not one that gets talked about as much. Obviously the injury to Eric Berry in the opener hurt this defense significantly, but their offense is missing two starters on the offensive line (center Mitch Morse and right guard Laurent Duvernay-Tardif) and and two of their top-3 receivers (Chris Conley and Albert Wilson). That really hurt them in last week’s home loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, a game in which they lost the first down battle 23-11.

On the season, the Chiefs are just 17th in first down rate differential at +0.73%, as they have 3 more offensive touchdowns than their opponents, but 7 fewer first downs. The Raiders, meanwhile, rank just 2 spots behind them at -0.50%. Taking into accounts injuries, I have these two teams about 3 points apart in my roster rankings. Given that, getting the Raiders as field goal home underdogs is a good value. Oakland should be able to keep this one close throughout and possibly pull off the upset. If not, I like getting field goal protection with them, as about 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less. This would be a higher confidence pick if I was confident that Carr wouldn’t get knocked out of the game, but the Raiders are still worth a small bet.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Oakland Raiders 23

Pick against the spread: Oakland +3

Confidence: Medium

2017 Week 6 NFL Pick Results

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2017

Straight Up: 51-40

Against the Spread: 50-40-1

Pick of the Week: 3-3

High Confidence: 6-3-1

Medium Confidence: 12-13

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 21-19-1

Low Confidence: 16-11

No Confidence: 13-10

Upset Picks: 7-8

Since 2013

Straight Up: 727-428-4 (62.90%)

Against the Spread: 602-528-29 (53.19%)

Pick of the Week: 43-31-2 (57.89%)

High Confidence: 65-51-4 (55.83%)

Medium Confidence: 178-132-5 (57.30%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 286-214-11 (57.05%)

Low Confidence: 161-156-9 (50.77%)

No Confidence: 155-158-9 (49.53%)

Upset Picks: 95-119 (44.39%)

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (2-3) at Tennessee Titans (2-3)

The line for this game has finally posted, as the Titans open as 7.5 point home favorites over the Colts, with Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota expected to return from a one-game absence with a hamstring injury. Both are these teams are 2-3, but the Titans’ wins have come over the Jaguars and the Seahawks, a pair of quality opponents, by a combined 27 points, while the Colts’ two wins have come against the 49ers and Browns, two of the worst teams in the league, by a combined 6 points.

With Mariota returning, the Titans are an above average team, while the Colts are among the least talented in the league as long as quarterback Andrew Luck remains out. Joining Luck on the Colts’ injury report is talented left guard Jack Mewhort, who could be done for the season with a knee injury, a big blow an already weak offensive line. I like the Titans this week, but this line is too high for me to bet anything on them confidently. I have this line calculated at -10, but the Titans come with extra risk this week because Mariota will likely be at less than 100%.

Tennessee Titans 27 Indianapolis Colts 17

Pick against the spread: Tennessee -7.5

Confidence: Low

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (3-2) at New Orleans Saints (2-2)

The Lions are 3-2 so far this season and last season they finished 9-7 and made the post-season, but they are not that good of a team. Last season, they didn’t defeat a single playoff team and they won just one game by more than a touchdown. So far this season, their 3 wins have come against the Cardinals, the Giants, and the Case Keenum led Vikings, none of whom are playoff caliber teams. If anything, they are worse this season than last season, as they are without left tackle Taylor Decker, starting defensive end Kerry Hyder, and now starting defensive tackle Haloti Ngata for the season with injury.

The Saints, meanwhile, could easily make the post-season. They’re 2-2, but their 2 losses came against the Vikings, who are one of the better teams in the league when Sam Bradford is healthy, and the Patriots, also a top level team. In their last 2 games before the bye, they outscored the Panthers and Dolphins 54-13 in a pair of wins away from home. Their defense is improved this season, led by talented rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore, and their offense remains strong and gets a boost this week with wide receiver Willie Snead and left tackle Terron Armstead likely set to return. Unfortunately, we’re not getting any line value with the Saints, as this line shifted from 3 in favor of the hometown Saints on the early line last week to 4.5 this week, after the Lions’ home loss to the Panthers. I have this line calculated right at -5.5, so I can’t be confident at all in the Saints. 

New Orleans Saints 30 Detroit Lions 24

Pick against the spread: New Orleans -4.5

Confidence: None

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (4-1) at Minnesota Vikings (3-2)

When I saw last week that the Vikings were favored by a field goal here on the early line, I liked them a lot. Green Bay is a good team, but the Vikings with a healthy Sam Bradford looked like a good team as well, so I would have happily grabbed the field goal with the hometown team. Unfortunately, in the past week Sam Bradford has re-aggravated his knee injury and #1 receiver Stefon Diggs injured his groin, knocking both of them out for at least this game. The Vikings will turn back to Case Keenum under center and he’s played pretty well this season, but he’s still a journeyman backup and he could find life much tougher without Diggs and injured running back Dalvin Cook, who were such a big part of this team’s early offensive success.

Fortunately, they face a Green Bay team that enters with a very banged up secondary, as they’re missing both Morgan Burnett and Kevin King, arguably their 2 best defensive backs thus far this season. This line has has only shifted to 3.5, despite all of Minnesota’s injuries, so we’re not getting much line value with the Vikings, but they do have the better defense at home, so they should cover as 3.5 point underdogs. I’m not that confident in Minnesota, but this could easily be a field goal game, as about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal or more, so the Vikings are probably the smarter choice in pick ‘em leagues.

Green Bay Packers 23 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +3.5

Confidence: Low

New England Patriots at New York Jets: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (3-2) at New York Jets (3-2)

Few people would have predicted both these teams would be 3-2 in their week 6 meeting, given that the Patriots were seen as arguably the best team in the league coming into the season, while the Jets were seen as arguably the worst team in the league. The Jets have gotten lucky during their 3 game winning streak, as they beat a bad Miami team at home before Miami had to go to London, an average Jacksonville team who had just came back from London, and a terrible Cleveland team that got 0 points on 3 drives inside the Jets’ 5 and missed 2 field goals. Their wins against the Jets and Browns came by just 3 points each. They still rank just 29th in first down rate differential at -4.81% and they rank dead last in my roster rankings.

The Patriots have definitely been disappointing and could easily be 1-4 if things hadn’t gone their way against the Texans and Buccaneers, but their offense has been as good as ever and their defense should get better as the season goes on, especially as linebacker Dont’a Hightower works back to 100% from injury. The Patriots should benefit from the extra time off after their Thursday night win in Tampa Bay last week, especially since Bill Belichick is 10-2-1 ATS after Thursday Night Football as head coach of the New England Patriots, and this game against the Jets is a good opportunity for them to get back on track in a big way. We’re not getting any line value with the Patriots as 9.5 point road favorites, but they’re the smarter pick in pick ‘em leagues since this could easily be a New England blowout.

New England Patriots 34 New York Jets 23

Pick against the spread: New England -9.5

Confidence: None

New York Giants at Denver Broncos: 2017 Week 6 NFL Pick

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New York Giants (0-5) at Denver Broncos (3-1)

The Broncos were favored by 6 on the early line over the Giants last week, but the line has since moved to 11.5. Ordinarily, I like to fade significant week-to-week line movements like that as they tend to be an overreaction, but in this case it makes perfect sense, as the Giants as coming off of a week from hell. Not only did they lose at home 27-22 to the Chargers to drop to 0-5 (their 3rd loss by 5 points or fewer), but they also lost their top-3 wide receivers to injury. Sterling Shepard will be back in a week or two, but Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall are out for the season and all 3 are out for this game, leaving Roger Lewis as the Giants #1 wide receiver. Add in the absences of center Weston Richburg, cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, and defensive end Olivier Vernon and this line is about right at 11.5.

With that in mind, I’m going to take the Broncos this week. Not only are the Giants incredibly banged up, but they’re also in a very tough spot, with a home game against the Seahawks on deck. The Giants are 7.5 point home underdogs on the early line and teams are 29-69 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 6 or more. On top of that, underdogs of 6 or more are 51-84 ATS before being underdogs of 6 or more again the following week, since 2012. Combining those two trends, underdogs of 6 or more are just 10-28 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 6 or more. With two tough games in a row, it could be very tough for the Giants to compete in this one, so the Broncos are the smarter choice. There isn’t enough for me to bet on them though.

Denver Broncos 23 New York Giants 10

Pick against the spread: Denver -11.5

Confidence: Low