NFL Picks

Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Baltimore Ravens (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (2-2)

The big injury that gets attention in this game is the back injury to Derek Carr, who will be replaced by backup EJ Manuel at least this week, as he recovers from a small fracture. However, the Raiders are basically healthy other than that and the Ravens have lost significantly more to injury this year, with a league most 16 players on injured reserve. Their injuries issues have gone back to before the season even started, most importantly losing cornerback Tavon Young, tight end Dennis Pitta, and left guard Alex Lewis for the year before week 1.

Despite that, the Ravens started 2-0, but they have lost their last 2 games by a combined score of 70-16. What happened? Well, the competition has gotten tougher, as the Ravens’ wins came over the Bengals and the Browns and their losses have come against the Jaguars and Steelers. Their turnover margin has also regressed to the mean, as they’ve posted a -5 turnover margin over the past 2 weeks, after posting a +7 in the first 2 weeks of the season. But the biggest reason they’ve struggled has been the absence of guard Marshal Yanda and defensive tackle Brandon Williams, both of whom were healthy for the first 2 games. Those two were their best offensive and defensive linemen respectively.

Williams could be back in the next couple weeks, but Yanda is out for the year. The Ravens have struggled mightily offensively ever since Yanda when down, including in the 2nd half against the Browns week 2, which is no surprise because he’s arguably the best right guard in football. Without him and Williams against the Raiders, this is still far from an easy game, even with Manuel under center for the Raiders. Even without Carr, I have the Raiders 2 points better than the Ravens, so they should be favored by around 5 points here at home instead of 2.5. There’s enough line value here for a small bet on the Raiders.

Oakland Raiders 20 Baltimore Ravens 15

Pick against the spread: Oakland -2.5

Confidence: Medium

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at Los Angeles Rams (3-1)

The Seahawks were favored by 3 points on the early line last week, but this line has since shifted a full 4.5 points to favor the Rams by 1.5 points. Typically I love fading significant week to week line movements like that because they tend to be an overreaction to a single week of play. This game is no different. The line moved because the Rams pulled an upset victory in Dallas, despite the fact that the Seahawks had their best game of the season, beating the Colts in blowout fashion 46-18. However, the Cowboys are an overrated team that is not as good as last season and that was missing its best defensive player, linebacker Sean Lee.

Even without Lee, the Cowboys are still arguably the toughest opponent the Rams have faced this season, so their 3-1 record doesn’t tell the whole story. Their other two wins came against two of the worst teams in the league, the 49ers and Colts, and they lost at home to the Redskins. The Seahawks haven’t beaten a good team yet this year, but their two losses came on the road against the Packers and Titans, who are better than anyone the Rams have played, and they have much more of a proven history than the Rams.

I don’t deny the Rams are significantly improved offensively this season, with Jared Goff showing improvement, improved talent around him, and improved coaching but this line suggests they’re only 1.5 points worse than the Seahawks, which I think is very premature for a team that was one of the worst in the league a year ago. I have this line calculated at -3.5 in favor of the Seahawks and that doesn’t even take into account that this game could have a very Seahawks heavy crowd. The Rams don’t have quite the same problem attracting fans in Los Angeles as the Chargers do, but they’ve struggled to sell their stadium out so far and the Seahawks have a big national following. The Rams are just 2-6-1 ATS in LA since moving there before the 2016 season. The Seahawks are a smart pick as long as we’re getting points.

Seattle Seahawks 17 Los Angeles Rams 13 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Seattle +1.5

Confidence: High

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (3-1) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)

The Cowboys went 12-4 last year, but did not enter the 2017 season with as talented of a team, after losing 2 key starters on their offensive line and several key members of their secondary this off-season, and then losing top interior pass rusher David Irving for the first 4 games of the season with suspension. After 4 games, they are 2-2, despite not facing a particularly tough schedule, beating the Giants and Cardinals, a pair of below average teams, and losing to the Broncos and the Rams, a pair of middling teams.

Irving returns for the Cowboys this week, but he’s a one-year wonder coming off of a PED suspension, so he might not be a huge help for this team. The Cowboys will be without stud linebacker Sean Lee, their most important defensive player, for the 2nd straight week and could be without talented left tackle Tyron Smith after he aggravated a back injury in practice. Those injuries further weaken their offensive line and defense in time for by far their toughest game of the season.

The Packers enter at 3-1 and are going in the opposite direction injury wise, with stud defensive end Mike Daniels and talented starting offensive tackles David Bakhtiari and Bryan Bulaga expected to return this week. The Packers last played on Thursday Night Football and the 10-day layoff allowed them to get as healthy as they’ve been all season. Given the state of these two rosters, I have these two teams about 4 points apart. However, this line is -2 in favor of the hometown Cowboys, suggesting these two teams are about 1 point apart.

We’re getting significant line value with the Packers before you even take into account that the Cowboys have had very little noticeable homefield advantage in recent years, as they tend to attract fans wherever they go. They are just 30-30 straight up at home since 2010, with an average differential of 1.68 points per game. Contrast that with their road record of 31-27 over that time period, with an average differential of -0.48 points per game. Their homefield advantage is really only worth about a point. The oddsmakers usually don’t correct for that, so the Cowboys are 21-38 ATS at home since 2010, including 13-30 ATS as a favorite. I have this line calculated at -3 in favor of the visiting Packers, so we’re getting 5 points of line value with Green Bay. This is my Pick of the Week as long as we’re getting points.

Green Bay Packers 31 Dallas Cowboys 27 Upset Pick +110

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +2

Confidence: Pick of the Week

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2017 Week 5 NFL Pick

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New England Patriots (2-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)

The Patriots lost last week at home to the Panthers 33-30 on a last second field goal, after the Patriots tied it up in the 4th with back-to-back touchdown drives. Historically, the Patriots have been a great bet after a loss in the Tom Brady/Bill Belichick era. Brady is 36-17 ATS in his career after a loss, while Belichick is 46-24 ATS off of a loss since taking over as head coach of the Patriots in 2000. However, we’re not getting any line value with the Patriots this week, as this line actually jumped from 4.5 to 5.5 between the early line last week and the line this week.

Both casual bettors and the oddsmakers know not to doubt Brady and Belichick anymore after their 4th and 5th Super Bowls, so taking Brady off of a loss isn’t as intriguing of a bet as it used to be. Earlier this year, the Patriots/Saints line stayed at 6.5 even after the Patriots lost at home week 1 to the Chiefs as big favorites. The Patriots went on to cover that game, but that’s their only cover of the season, as they lost twice at home as big favorites and nearly lost a 3rd time, needing a last second touchdown drive to defeat the Texans by 2 as 14-point favorites.

The big concern coming into the season with the Patriots was Tom Brady’s age and whether or not he could continue being a high level quarterback at age 40, but Brady looks as good as ever despite his age. The reason the Patriots have been struggling to win games is because their defense looks as bad as it ever has. The Patriots are moving the chains at a 41.76% rate, 2nd in the NFL to Kansas City, but are still -1.77% in first down rate differential because their defense has allowed opponents to move the chains at a 43.53% rate. As good as their offense is, their defense is making opposing offenses look even better.

The Patriots are obviously very well coached and will probably figure out their defensive issues by mid-season as usual, especially since they return most of their 2016 defense, which was one of the better defenses in the league. However, I can’t justify taking them as 5.5 point favorites this week. My numbers have these two teams are 6 points apart, suggesting the Patriots should be favored by only a field goal. I like the advantage Brady and Belichick have on a short week, even on the road, and I think they have a good chance to bounce back, but the Buccaneers are probably the smarter choice against the spread. This is a no confidence pick.

New England Patriots 31 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27

Pick against the spread: Tampa Bay +5.5

Confidence: None

2017 Week 4 NFL Pick Results

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2017

Straight Up: 37-26

Against the Spread: 34-29

Pick of the Week: 2-2

High Confidence: 4-3

Medium Confidence: 9-9

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 15-14

Low Confidence: 9-7

No Confidence: 10-8

Upset Picks: 4-4

Since 2013

Straight Up: 713-414-4 (63.22%)

Against the Spread: 586-517-28 (53.05%)

Pick of the Week: 42-30-2 (58.11%)

High Confidence: 63-51-3 (55.13%)

Medium Confidence: 175-128-5 (57.63%)

Money Picks (Medium confidence and higher): 280-209-10 (57.11%)

Low Confidence: 154-152-9 (50.32%)

No Confidence: 152-156-9 (49.37%)

Upset Picks: 93-117 (44.29%)

Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs: 2017 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Washington Redskins (2-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-0)

The Chiefs have gotten off to a hot start, winning each of their first 3 games. The most surprising part is how they’ve done it. The Chiefs have been a defense first team for several years, but they rank 2nd in first down rate through 3 games at 41.92% and they are tied with the Patriots with 12 offensive touchdowns. Their defense, meanwhile, actually leads the league in first downs allowed with 76 and ranks 4th worst in first down rate allowed at 38.86%, so they’ve been winning in spite of their defense, not because of it.

Unfortunately, it’s unlikely they’re this good all season offensively. They currently have a quarterback rating of 132.7, just 1 turnover on 167 offensive plays (the first play of the season ironically), and a 6.85 yards per carry average on the ground. They’re on pace to break all sorts of offensive records if they keep on their current pace, but it’s highly unlikely that this is one of the greatest offenses of all time, so they’re likely to fall off their current pace significantly. Last season, they finished just 20th in first down rate. They’re obviously better than that now with Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill emerging as big playmakers and Alex Smith playing as well as he ever has, but they might not be a top-5 or even a top-10 offense when all is said and done.

If they’re going to keep winning at a high rate, they’re going to have to play better defensively. That’s definitely a possibility, as their schedule gets easier, after starting the year with New England, Philadelphia, and the LA Chargers, but this defense is simply not the same without safety Eric Berry, who is out for the season with a torn achilles. Berry isn’t the only injury the Chiefs are dealing with, as center Mitch Morse and outside linebacker Tamba Hali remain out, while left tackle Eric Fisher and Dee Ford could join them on the sidelines after missing practice time late in the week. The Redskins are relatively healthy and an above average team that should be able to keep this game close. I have this line calculated at about -4, so we’re getting significant line value at -7. The Redskins are worth a bet if you can get a full touchdown.

Kansas City Chiefs 24 Washington Redskins 20

Pick against the spread: Washington +7

Confidence: Medium

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings: 2017 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Detroit Lions (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (2-1)

The Lions are 2-1 and were literally inches away from beating the Falcons and going to 3-0 last week, but they rank 29th in first down rate differential (-6.54%), as they have allowed 12 more first downs than they’ve picked up. Despite their record, they’ve lost the first down rate battle in each of their first 3 games. Their record is largely the result of a +6 turnover margin and a subsequent +2 return touchdown margin, but turnover margins are inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, so they won’t be able to count on that every week. Last season, they managed just 14 takeaways all season and finished at -1 in turnover margin, an example of how inconsistent turnover margins are. Given that, they’re highly unlikely to keep up their current pace, as they’re on pace for 43 takeaways, more than triple their 2016 total.

That will have a noticeable effect on the field, as the Lions defense has had serious problems getting teams off the field without takeaways this season, forcing just 11 punts, fewest forced by any team who has played 3 games except the Saints. That’s despite playing a couple of mediocre offenses, the Cardinals and the Giants, to start the season. Having Ezekiel Ansah healthy has helped this defense, but they’ve missed fellow starting defensive end Kerry Hyder, who is out for the season, and their offense is not as good as last season without left tackle Taylor Decker, who is out with a shoulder injury.

The Lions ranked 29th in first down rate differential last season too, when they went 9-7 with 8 wins by a touchdown or less and no wins over playoff teams, so they should be a smart team to bet against going forward. Unfortunately, we’re not getting great line value with the Vikings here as 2 point favorites with Case Keenum under center. The Vikings were +2 last week for the Buccaneers and, though they won pretty easily, that was primarily because the Buccaneers were banged up defensively and because they won the turnover battle by 3. I’m taking the Vikings still, but it’s a no confidence bet as long as the Vikings as favored.

Minnesota Vikings 23 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Minnesota -2

Confidence: None

Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks: 2017 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (1-2) at Seattle Seahawks (1-2)

This is one of the toughest games of the week to predict against the spread. The Seahawks are favored by 12.5 and I have this line calculated at -13.5 because the Colts are one of the least talented teams in the league and the Seahawks are one of the most, but the Seahawks offense is so inconsistent that I don’t know if I trust them laying this many points. In a similar situation earlier this year against an equally bad San Francisco team, they managed just 12 points in a 12-9 victory, despite being favored by 14 points coming into the game.

In fact, over the past 2 seasons, they’ve scored fewer than 13 points in a game 7 times. Only the Browns, Jets, Rams, and Texans have more games with fewer than 13 points over that time period. That’s especially relevant because the Seahawks will need to not just score 13 points, but win by 13 points to cover here. The Colts have a weak defense and their offense should struggle mightily against Seattle’s defense, but that was true of the 49ers a couple weeks ago. This could easily be a 17-10 or a 16-9 game that the Seahawks struggle to put away, so I can’t take them with any confidence, even though I think Seattle has the talent to blow away the Colts.

Seattle Seahawks 23 Indianapolis Colts 10

Pick against the spread: Seattle -12.5

Confidence: None

Los Angeles Rams at Dallas Cowboys: 2017 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Los Angeles Rams (2-1) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1)

The Rams are a little bit of an overrated team. They’re definitely better than they were last season, with an improved offensive talent around an improved Jared Goff, but I think the general public overestimates how much better. In my roster rankings, I have them 26th, so they’re not awful like last season, but they’re still one of the weaker teams in the league. They still have issues on offense, including Goff, who remains untrustworthy, and their defense has issues outside of the defensive line, even with Wade Phillips taking over as defensive coordinator.

They’re 2-1, but those two wins came against two of the worst teams in the league, the Colts and the 49ers, and they struggled to put away the latter last week in what ended up only being a 2-point win. Their loss came at home to the Redskins in a game in which they were thoroughly outplayed and lost the first down battle 21-14. The Cowboys are not the same team as they were last season, losing two starters on the offensive line this off-season (Ronald Leary and Doug Free) and losing top interior pass rusher David Irving for the first 4 games of the season with a suspension, but I still think they’re about 5 points better than the Rams right now.

However, I’m actually taking the Rams this week for two reasons. One is that the Cowboys’ homefield advantage is barely noticeable, as they tend to attract fans wherever they go. They are just 30-29 straight up at home since 2010, with an average differential of 1.80 points per game. Contrast that with their road record of 31-27 over that time period, with an average differential of -0.48 points per game. Their homefield advantage is really only worth about a point. Despite that, the oddsmakers usually don’t correct for that and the Cowboys are 21-37 ATS at home since 2010, including 13-29 ATS as a favorite and 6-16 ATS as a favorite of 6 or more.

The second reason is that outside linebacker Sean Lee could miss this game after not practicing all week with a hamstring injury, which would be a huge blow to a Cowboys defense that has a lot of problems even with Lee healthy. With Lee’s uncertainty and the Cowboys’ lack of homefield advantage, I have this line calculated at -5.5, so we’re getting slight line value with the Rams, although it’s not nearly enough for me to be confident in them. If Lee is ruled out and this line doesn’t move, I might move this up to a low confidence pick, but I wouldn’t bet on either of these teams this week.

Dallas Cowboys 30 Los Angeles Rams 24

Pick against the spread: LA Rams +6.5

Confidence: None

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals: 2017 Week 4 NFL Pick

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San Francisco 49ers (0-3) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2)

The Cardinals finished the 2015 season #1 in first down rate differential when they finished 13-3 and then they finished #1 in that metric again in 2016, despite going 7-8-1, as they could have easily won 10-12 games if not for numerous special teams errors in close games. However, this Cardinals team is not the same team as the past 2 seasons. They lost five defensive starters in free agency, including defensive end Calais Campbell, safety DJ Swearinger, and safety Tony Jefferson, all of whom were among the best players in the league at this position in 2016. On top of that, they’ve been ravaged by injuries, most importantly a wrist injury to David Johnson that has him sidelined indefinitely.

As a result, the Cardinals are just 1-2, with their one win coming in overtime against the lowly Colts. The good news is they have arguably their easiest game of the season this week with the 49ers coming to town. After starting the season with back-to-back games on the road and then a home game against the Cowboys, this is a welcome sight for them. They’re also getting healthier, with middle linebacker Deone Bucannon set to make his season debut and left tackle DJ Humphries returning to the lineup for the first time since the first half week 1.

The Cardinals still have injury issues, with Johnson, defensive end Robert Nkemdiche, and left guard Mike Iupati out indefinitely, but the 49ers have injuries too, with safety Eric Reid and middle linebacker Reuben Foster out and running back Carlos Hyde limited at best with a hip injury. Given the state of these two rosters right now, I have this line calculated at -9, suggesting these two teams are about 6 points apart. We’re getting some line value with the Cardinals as 6.5 point home favorites, but there isn’t quite enough here for me to be confident in Arizona covering.

Arizona Cardinals 24 San Francisco 49ers 16

Pick against the spread: Arizona -6.5

Confidence: Low