Packers

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 16 NFL Pick

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Minnesota Vikings (7-7) at Green Bay Packers (8-6)

The Vikings got blown out at home last week as 4.5 point home favorites, losing 34-6 to the Indianapolis Colts. It was a stunning result, but a major outlier for a Vikings team who previously hadn’t lost a game by more than 10 all season. The good news for them is teams tend to bounce back from losses like that, as teams are 95-54 ATS since 2002 off of an against the spread loss of 28 or more. It’s counterintuitive, but it makes sense when you think about it, as teams tend to be undervalued, overlooked, and embarrassed off of a loss like that.

I can’t guarantee that the Vikings will be embarrassed or overlooked this week, off of that huge home loss, but they’re definitely undervalued with this line moving from 5 on the early line last week to 7 this week. That’s the same amount of points the Packers were favored by three weeks ago against the Texans and the Vikings are definitely a better team than the Texans. Since that mere 8-point victory over the Texans, the Packers have blown out the Seahawks and won in Chicago, but much of that is because of their +10 turnover margin over the past 2 weeks.

Turnover margins tend to be incredibly inconsistent on a week-to-week basis though. In fact, the Packers are just the 11th team since 1989 to have a turnover margin of +10 or better over a 2 weeks span. The previous 10 went 2-8 ATS the following week and had an average turnover margin of -0.3. The Packers probably would have still beaten the Seahawks even if they didn’t win the turnover margin by 6, but the Packers lost the first down battle 29-20 and the first down rate battle by 11.14% last week in Chicago and only won the game on a last second field goal because they won the turnover battle by 4. The Packers’ offense is playing well, but I’m concerned about their defense’s ability to get off the field if they can’t force a turnover.

The Packers are the better team, but the difference in first down rate differential between these two teams is less than a percent and a half, so we’re getting good line value with the Vikings as full touchdown underdogs in Green Bay, especially since there’s a chance safety Harrison Smith could return. It was originally reported that he’d miss the rest of the regular season with an ankle injury, but he returned to practice this week and is at least a gametime decision for this game. He’s arguably the best safety in the NFL and as important to Minnesota’s defense as Earl Thomas is to Seattle’s defense, so he’d be a welcome return. Even if he doesn’t play, I like Minnesota’s chances of covering here.

In addition to Minnesota getting blown out last week, another reason the Packers could overlook the Vikings a little bit this week is they have a tougher game on deck in Detroit, while the Vikings will host the Bears. Divisional home favorites are just 23-61 ATS since 2002 before being divisional road favorites. On top of that, favorites are 61-97 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites, which the Vikings almost definitely will be next week at home against the Bears. The Packers are only 1 point underdogs in Detroit on the early line, but the logic still makes sense. The Packers have a tough upcoming game that could be a distraction for them, while the Vikings don’t. This is my Pick of the Week.

Green Bay Packers 23 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against the spread: Minnesota +7

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (7-6) at Chicago Bears (3-10)

The Packers got a huge home win over the Seahawks last week, handing Seattle their biggest loss in the Russell Wilson era, 38-10. Unfortunately for them, teams are just 61-80 ATS off of a home win as underdogs, as teams in that spot tend to be overrated and overconfident. Typically, I love betting against teams coming off of home upset wins and the Packers are no exception. The Packers’ big win last week shifted this line all the way from 3.5 in favor of Green Bay to 7, which I think is an overreaction, especially since the Bears almost won in Detroit. The Packers’ win last week was impressive, but much of that big margin of victory was as a result of a fluky +6 turnover margins. Turnover margins tend to be incredibly inconsistent on a week to week basis. In fact, teams that have a +6 turnover margin, on average, have a turnover margin of just +0.3 the following week.

The Bears, meanwhile, have had arguably the most injuries in the league, but they haven’t been bad overall this season and they are still fighting despite being down to backups at multiple spots on both sides of the ball. They rank 18th in first down rate and just 2 of their last 7 losses have come by more than 6 points. At home, the Bears are 3-3 with a +11 point differential and just one loss by more than 6 points (back in week 2). This week, the Bears get top wide receiver Alshon Jeffery back from a 4-game suspension, a much needed re-addition for this offense. With this line jumping to 7 as a result of Green Bay’s big win last week, I like the Bears a good amount this week, as they should be able to keep it close against a team that could be overconfident off of a huge win and that has Minnesota and Detroit in their final 2 games of the regular season after this relatively “easy” game.

Green Bay Packers 23 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago +7

Confidence: High

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Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Seattle Seahawks (8-3-1) at Green Bay Packers (6-6)

Typically, the Seahawks are unstoppable in the second half of the season, going 33-10-1 ATS since Pete Carroll’s first season in 2011 in games 9-16 of the regular season. This year, they got off to a strong start, covering in games 9 and 10, but then they got embarrassed in their 11th game of the season, losing 14-5 as 5.5 point favorites in Tampa Bay. They bounced back in a huge way last week, blowing out a banged up Carolina team 40-7, but that game might have been a case of winning the battle losing the war, as the Seahawks have lost safety Earl Thomas, one of the best in the game, for the season with a broken leg. It’s not that the Seahawks can’t win the Super Bowl without Thomas, especially in a year where all of the top teams have glaring flaws, but it certainly becomes a lot more difficult of a task for the Seahawks and it takes a lot of the air out of last week’s big win.

Despite that, this line has actually shifted from 2.5 in favor of Seattle to 3 in the past week. That might not seem like a huge line movement, but it’s pretty significant considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal. We’re getting good value with the Packers at home, just the fourth time in Aaron Rodgers’ career that he’s been a home underdog (2-1 ATS). The Packers are also in a great spot, going to Chicago next week to face the lowly Bears. Home underdogs are 79-44 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites, which the Packers almost certainly will be next week. The Seahawks have an easy game against the Rams on deck, but it’s in 4 days, which is tough. Favorites are just 57-83 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. Normally I bet on the Seahawks in the second half of the season, but I like the Packers a lot if you can get them as field goal underdogs.

Green Bay Packers 27 Seattle Seahawks 24 Upset Pick +125

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +3

Confidence: Medium

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Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (6-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-6)

The Texans are 6-5, but their 6 wins have come by a combined 36 points, while their 5 losses have come by a combined 78 points, with none of them being closer than 7 points. As a result, they have a -42 point differential that ranks 26th in the NFL and they rank 27th in first down rate differential. The Packers, meanwhile, are coming off of a huge win in Philadelphia on Monday Night Football last week and, now healthier on defense than they’ve been in recent weeks, could be ready to go on a run. They enter this game 13th in rate of moving the chains differential and have more in common with the 5 teams that have beaten the Texans (New England, Minnesota, Denver, Oakland, San Diego) than the 6 teams that have lost to the Texans (Chicago, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Detroit, Jacksonville).

The Texans will also be without outside linebackers Jadeveon Clowney and John Simon with injury, leaving them very thin on the edge. The problem is we’re getting no line value with the Packers, as this line has shifted from 3.5 on the early line last week to 6.5 this week, as a result of Green Bay’s win in Philadelphia and Houston’s home loss to the Chargers. The Packers should be able to give the Texans another loss by 7+ points, but I couldn’t bet money at 6.5 with any sort of confidence. The Packers are the pick in pick ‘em polls, but this is a no confidence play.

Green Bay Packers 27 Houston Texans 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -6.5

Confidence: None

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Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (4-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (5-5)

I’ve been going back and forth on whether or not I want to put any money on the Packers this week. They should be the right side, but they’ve been so inconsistent this season that it’s tough to be confident in them. Early in the year, it was their offense that was disappointing. Now, their offense has picked up, but their defense has been atrocious, allowing a ridiculous 12 touchdowns in their last 2 games. They’re getting healthier on defense, with middle linebacker Jake Ryan and cornerback Damarious Randall returning this week and outside linebacker Clay Matthews returning in a limited role last week and set to play a full set of snaps this week, but none of those three players were playing particularly well before getting hurt, so I’m not sure how much it’ll help. The rookie Ryan was playing the best of the three, but his return coincides with fellow middle linebacker Blake Martinez getting hurt and missing this game, so Ryan’s return might not be anything more than a wash.

Typically, the Packers have done well after a loss in the Aaron Rodgers era, going 27-16 ATS off of a loss with Rodgers under center, but if their defense can’t get it together that won’t matter. We are getting some line value with the Packers as 4 point underdogs, as these teams are more or less even, meaning the hometown Eagles should be favored by a field goal at most at home. The Eagles are also not nearly as good offensively as the Titans and Redskins, the Packers’ last two opponents. I’m going to hold out for this line to move to 4.5 at some point before Monday night, but I might ultimately end up putting money on the Packers at 4 if the line doesn’t move.

Monday Update: Holding out for 4.5 worked, as I was able to get it this morning. If you can get it, I’d recommend a bet, but I think avoid betting on the Packers at 4. Normally I’d be all over the Packers in this spot, but they’ve been too inconsistent this year.

Philadelphia Eagles 24 Green Bay Packers 23

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +4.5

Confidence: Medium

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Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (4-5) at Washington Redskins (5-3-1)

The common narrative is that the sky is falling for the Packers right now, following 3 straight losses and a 47-25 thrashing in Tennessee last week. However, their loss in Atlanta came by 1 point, on the road, against one of the better teams in the league. Their home loss to the Colts was largely as a result of long returns by the Colts on special teams. Last week’s loss was obviously bad, but the Titans are much better than people realize. The Titans were my Pick of the Week as 3 point home underdogs against the Packers last week. I obviously didn’t see them blowing them out, but I think that game is more evidence that the Titans are for real than evidence that the Packers are done.

The Packers are far from the team they once were, but 3 of their 5 losses were very winnable, while all 4 of their wins came with relative ease. They enter this game 12th in first down rate differential, but this line suggests they are even with the Redskins, as Washington is 3 point home favorites. That’s far from the case, considering the Redskins enter this game 24th in first down rate differential and are without stud left tackle Trent Williams with suspension. The Redskins’ only win by more than a touchdown came at home against the Browns, a game in which they didn’t even play that well, allowing 26 first downs. The Redskins are also in a tough spot because they have to turn around and go to Dallas on a short week for their Thanksgiving game. Favorites are just 50-82 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. They might not be 100% focused for this game, while the Packers should be as they kind of need a win to save their season. Aaron Rodgers is typically very good off of a loss, going 27-15 ATS off of a loss in his career. I like the Packers a lot as field goal underdogs and would take them at 2.5 as well.

Green Bay Packers 31 Washington Redskins 27 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +3

Confidence: High

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Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans: 2016 Week 10 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (4-4) at Tennessee Titans (4-5)

The Titans may be just 4-5, but they actually rank 7th in the NFL in first down rate differential. They’ve been competitive in every game and have a -9 point differential on the season, despite being -7 in return touchdown differential. Aside from those 7 plays, they have a +39 point differential (which would be 6th best in the NFL) and have quietly played very solid football this season. They have 10 more first downs than their opponents on the season and, in offensive touchdowns, they have a +9 advantage (27 to 18).

The Packers are also better than their record, as their 3 of their losses have come by a combined 9 points and were all very winnable games. They could easily be 6-2 or 7-1 right now and rank 5th in first down rate differential. However, because the Packers are the Packers and the Titans are the Titans, the odds makers have underrated the Titans, but not the Packers here, even though these two teams actually have very similar records. The Packers are favored by a field goal here in Tennessee, so we’re getting great line value with the hosts. These two teams are much more even than people realize. About 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal and 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less, so the Titans at 3 are my Pick of the Week this week.

Tennessee Titans 23 Green Bay Packers 20 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +3

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Indianapolis Colts at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Indianapolis Colts (3-5) at Green Bay Packers (4-3)

The Colts have been one of the worst teams in the league this season, entering this game with the 4th lowest first down percentage differential in the league, thanks largely to a defense that ranks 31st in first down percentage allowed. One of the oldest rosters in the league, the Colts have predictably declined this season and also have dealt with a number of injuries. This week, they’re without top safety Mike Adams, starting defensive end Kendall Langford, top offensive lineman Jack Mewhort, fellow starting offensive lineman Joe Reitz, and top pass rusher Trent Cole.

The Packers, meanwhile, rank 6th in first down percentage differential, so they’re one of the better teams in the league. They’re also getting healthier, with running back Ty Montgomery, center Corey Linsley, wide receiver Randall Cobb, cornerback Quinten Rollins, and linebacker Clay Matthews all returning to the starting lineup this week. They’re still missing key players, but they’re deep and talented enough overall to get by without them. This line is pretty big at 7.5, but I actually don’t think it’s high enough given the talent disparity between these two teams. I couldn’t put money on the Packers at 7.5, but that might change at 7 and definitely would change at 6.5.

Green Bay Packers 31 Indianapolis Colts 20

Pick against the spread: Green Bay -7.5

Confidence: Low

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Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons: 2016 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Green Bay Packers (4-2) at Atlanta Falcons (4-3)

This line was 2.5 in favor of the Falcons on the early line last week, but the line has since risen to 3. That’s despite the fact that Green Bay won easily over the Bears, while the Falcons lost at home to the Chargers last week. A half point might not seem like a big difference, but considering 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal, it is a big difference in this case. This line currently suggests these two teams are about even, which I disagree with. The Falcons have a fantastic offense (2nd in first down percentage), but a terrible defense (28th in first down percentage allowed), while the Packers are more well-rounded.

The Packers’ offense isn’t as good as it’s been in the past, but they are 9th in first down percentage, 11th in first down percentage allowed, and 5th in first down percentage differential. That’s 7 spots higher than the Falcons, who are 13th. Even with all of the injuries the Packers have, they’re still the better team and we’re getting value with them as 3 point underdogs. The Falcons are also in a tough spot with a Thursday Night game on deck. Favorites are 50-79 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. The Packers, meanwhile, have an easy home game against the Colts on deck next Sunday, so they have no upcoming distractions on the schedule. They’re worth putting money on at 3.

Green Bay Packers 31 Atlanta Falcons 30 Upset Pick +140

Pick against the spread: Green Bay +3

Confidence: Medium

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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Chicago Bears (1-5) at Green Bay Packers (4-2)

This is a tough one to start the week. On one hand, the line shifted from 10.5 to 8 over the past week, as a result of Green Bay’s home loss to a good Dallas team, so we’re getting the Packers in a buy low opportunity. The Bears, meanwhile, have another tough game on deck against the Vikings and tough home games like that often are distraction for teams, as teams are 48-94 ATS before being 4+ point home underdogs since 2012. The Bears are expected to be at least home underdogs of that many points.

However, the Packers have a tough game on deck as well, as they head to Atlanta to face a good Falcons team next week. More important, even at 8, this line might be too high the way the Packers are playing right now. They enter this game just 13th in first down percentage differential, thanks to an offense that shockingly ranks just 14th in first down percentage. The Bears are not too much farther down at 19. Of course, if Aaron Rodgers can play like himself again, this line might be a good value in the other direction.

That’s far from a given though, as Rodgers has looked average at best since the start of last season. Last year, it was understandable because the Packers were missing top receiver Jordy Nelson and had other banged up players on offense, but Nelson is back and the Packers have been relatively healthy around him this season. Now in his age 33 season, it’s fair to question if he’s losing it a little bit, even in an era where top quarterbacks are staying top quarterbacks into their mid-to-late 30s.

Making matters worse, the Packers are missing a lot of key players on a short week, most notably running back Eddie Lacy. With backup running back James Starks also out, the Packers are very thin at the position and may have to start Knile Davis, acquired just this week from the Chiefs in a trade. They’re also very thin at cornerback, missing their top 3 cornerbacks with injury, Sam Shields, Quinten Rollins, and Damarious Randall. However, on paper, they still have enough of a talent advantage to cover this spread if everyone plays like they should. On top of that, Rodgers is 26-13 ATS off a loss in his career and him having a huge game that shuts up all of his critics (for now) is certainly not out of the question, especially against a mediocre Bears pass defense. Especially with another tough game on deck, I couldn’t bet anything on the Bears this week, but they’re the pick here.

Green Bay Packers 27 Chicago Bears 20

Pick against the spread: Chicago +8

Confidence: None

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