Quarterback

Three years ago, the Packers made a surprising decision in the first round of the draft, selecting quarterback Jordan Love to be the long-term replacement for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. It made some sense, with Rodgers set to enter his age 37 season and coming off of a season in which he had the 3rd worst QB rating of his tenure as a starter in 2019, but Rodgers responded by posting a career best QB rating en route to winning MVP, while Love struggled behind the scenes.

The original plan was probably to trade Rodgers following 2020 and replace him with the younger, cheaper Love, but with Rodgers playing well and Love not progressing like they had hoped, suddenly the tables were turned and the Packers spent most of the off-season convincing Rodgers to stay, after he demanded a trade and threatened retirement, feeling disrespected by the selection of Love. 

Rodgers eventually stayed after receiving a pay raise and followed up his 2020 MVP season with another MVP season in 2021, while Love struggled in a lone spot starter in place of Rodgers. However, things started to shift in 2022. Rodgers started showing his age, posting a career worst QB rating, while Love started to improve significantly behind the scenes, showing his progress in mop up duty in a meaningless week 18 game. 

Last off-season, Rodgers and the Packers finally agreed to a mutual split, with the 4-time NFL MVP being sent to the Jets for a draft pick, leaving the job to Love as he entered his 4th season in the league. The Packers were in an awkward contract situation with Love, whose first round contract required the Packers to either pick up an expensive guaranteed 5th year option for 2024, or let him be a free agent following the 2023 season, but the two sides came on an agreement where the Packers declined his 5th year option, but gave him a one-year extension that was cheaper than the 5th year option would have been.

To start the 2023 season, Love looked like he wouldn’t be the long-term solution for the Packers, completing just 57.7% of his passes for an average of 6.38 YPA, 11 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions with a 64.5 PFF grade in the first 7 games of the season, while going just 2-5. However, something seemed to click for him mid-season, as he was one of the best quarterbacks in the league the rest of the way, leading the Packers to a 7-3 record in the final 10 games of the regular season and not just an unlikely playoff berth, but also an unlikely first round upset of the Cowboys, before a close loss to the 49ers in the second round. In total, Love completed 68.5% of his passes for an average of 7.83 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 5 interceptions with a 90.5 PFF grade in his final 12 starts of the season, including playoffs, the 2nd best PFF grade in the NFL over that stretch.

It was a small sample size and it’s far from a guarantee that Love will continue playing at that level, but he’s unlikely to regress to his first half of the 2023 season form and, even if he isn’t quite as good in 2024 as he was in the second half of 2023, he has clearly cemented himself as the Packers long-term quarterback of the future and at least an above average starting quarterback. As of this writing, he has yet to be signed long-term ahead of the final year of his contract, but an extension is reportedly in the works and he figures to be one of the highest paid quarterbacks in the league. 

Love will likely be backed up for the second straight year by Sean Clifford, a 5th round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. With Love not missing any time last season, Clifford only attempted one pass his whole rookie season and it’s unclear if he’ll develop into a capable backup long-term, but he’s probably the best option the Packers have, with the alternative being Michael Pratt, a 7th round pick in this year’s draft. Whoever wins the backup job, they would almost definitely be a massive downgrade from Love in case of injury. The Packers will need Love to stay healthy if they want to continue being a playoff caliber team.

Grade: A-

Receiving Corps

Jordan Love did significantly improve his play down the stretch last season, but he wasn’t the only reason for this offense’s significant second half improvement, as the Packers had a very talented, but very young receiving corps that significantly improved as the season went on. Jayden Reed, a second round rookie, led the group in receiving with a 64/793/8 slash line and a 2.05 yards per route run average, while posting a 75.1 grade from PFF. 

Fellow rookie Dontayvion Wicks was also very efficient, albeit in a smaller role, playing just 458 snaps and only finishing with a 39/581/4 slash line, but on an average of 2.04 yards per route run with a 78.4 PFF grade, despite only being a 5th round pick. Romeo Doubs, a 2022 4th round pick, led the group in snaps played (845) and targets (96), but was not nearly as effective as Reed and Wicks, posting a 59/674/8 slash line with just a 1.32 yards per route run average, and a 68.9 PFF grade. Doubs was also underwhelming with a 42/425/3 slash line, a 1.36 yards per route run average, and a 62.6 PFF grade as a rookie in 2022 and could easily end up in a smaller role in year three, given that other young receivers have outplayed him. 

Coming into last season, 2022 2nd round pick Christian Watson was expected to be the best receiver on this team, after a rookie season in which he shined in a limited role, only playing 507 snaps, but averaging 2.26 yards per route run and finishing with a 41/611/7 slash line, despite the limited playing time. However, Watson missed 8 games with injury in 2023 and was limited in several others, leading to him averaging just 1.56 yards per route run and posting just a 28/422/5 slash line. Watson still has a lot of upside though and could easily take a big step forward in 2024 if he’s healthy. Reed, Wicks, and Doubs also have the upside to be better in 2024 than they were in 2023.

Bo Melton and Malik Heath also saw small roles last season and both are also young. Melton only played 139 snaps in five games as an injury fill-in, but he excelled in limited action, with a 16/218/1 slash line, a team best 88.1 PFF grade, and a team best 2.83 yards per route run average. It’s a very small sample size for a 2022 7th round pick who had never played an offensive snap in the NFL prior to that, but he’s a good insurance option to have. 

Heath, meanwhile, was not nearly as good, as the 2023 undrafted free agent played 260 snaps and averaged just 1.07 yards per route run. Heath is far from a guarantee to even make the final active roster in 2024 given all of the other wide receivers the Packers have and the same is the case for Samari Toure, a 2022 7th round pick who has played just 251 career snaps with a 0.98 yards per route run average, and Grant DuBose, a 2023 7th round pick who didn’t play an offensive snap as a rookie and spent most of the season on the practice squad.

The Packers have more youth at the tight end position, with 2023 2nd round pick Luke Musgrave (468 snaps) and 2023 3rd round pick Tucker Kraft (621 snaps) leading the position in snaps as rookies last season. Musgrave missed 6 games with injury last season and was their primary pass catching tight end when healthy. His 34/352/1 slash line and 1.28 yards per route run average were mediocre, but he has the talent to take a step forward in year two. Kraft, meanwhile, played all 17 games and had a 31/355/2 slash line with a 1.20 yards per route run average. He also has the upside to take a step forward in year two, but will probably be more of a blocker than a receiving option as long as Musgrave is healthy. Overall, this is a talented young receiving corps with the upside to keep getting better in 2024. They don’t have a true #1 receiver, but this is a very deep group.

Grade: B+

Running Backs

The Packers made a big addition at the running back position this off-season, signing ex-Raider Josh Jacobs to a 4-year, 48 million dollar deal, making him the 5th highest paid running back in the league in average annual salary. In the process, the Packers moved on from Aaron Jones, who had been a talented running back for them for many years. Last season, Jones missed six games with injury, but remained a talented back when healthy, rushing for 656 yards and 2 touchdowns on 142 carries (4.62 YPC) in 11 games, while averaging 1.40 yards per route run and posting a 30/233/1 slash line as a receiver. 

Jacobs is about the same price as Jones would have been, with Jones originally set to make 12 million this season, but he’s significantly younger (age 26 season vs. age 30 season), which is a big deal at the running back position, and Jacobs should be healthier than Jones was a year ago, having only missed 10 games in five seasons in the league. Jacobs has been inconsistent throughout his career and has just a 4.25 YPC average in five seasons in the league, but that’s in part due to having a mostly mediocre offense around him with the Raiders (3.01 career yards per carry after contact), he still has an impressive 51.6% career carry success rate, and he he has routinely carried the load at the running back position, averaging 304 carries per 17 games in his career, while averaging 1.15 yards per route run and a 46/337/0 slash line per 17 games. His expensive contract almost ensures he’ll have a similar role with his new team.

With Jones missing significant time last season and being limited in some games even while healthy, AJ Dillon led this team in carries with 178, but he struggled with a 3.44 YPC average (2.69 yards per carry after contact) and it was a surprise the Packers brought him back on a 1-year, 2.75 million dollar deal, despite the signing of Jacobs to be the feature back. Dillon has been better in the past, with a 4.34 YPC average on 418 carries (3.10 yards per carry after contact) in his first three seasons in the league, after going in the 2nd round in 2020, and he’s a useful passing down back, with a career 1.09 yards per route run average, but he’ll be a true backup to Jacobs and might not even be that, with the Packers using their 3rd round pick on MarShawn Lloyd as competition for the #2 back role. With Lloyd added, Jacobs likely to be healthier than Jones was, and Dillon having some bounce back potential after a career worst 2023, this should be a deeper backfield than a year ago, albeit at an expensive price.

Grade: A-

Offensive Line

The Packers made some changes on the offensive line this off-season. The biggest name that is gone is left tackle David Bakhtiari, who was released this off-season ahead of 21.5 million non-guaranteed owed in his age 33 season in 2024, but he had been consistently injured in recent years and only played one game in 2023, so his absence won’t be felt too much. The Packers also lost free agent departure Yosh Njiman, a useful reserve who had played in Bakhtiari’s absence in recent years, but he only played 230 nondescript snaps last season (61.7 PFF grade), so he won’t be missed too much either.

Guard Jon Runyan leaving in free agency is the most noteworthy loss on the offensive line, as he started 17 games last season, but he struggled with a 54.7 PFF grade, so it won’t be too hard to replace him either. Options to replace him include Royce Newman and Sean Rhyan. Newman has made 24 starts in three seasons in the league since going in the 4th round in 2021, but he has earned grades of 55.7, 57.5, and 44.3 in those three seasons and barely played in 2023 (183 snaps), so he would be an underwhelming option, while Rhyan, a 2022 3rd round pick, missed his whole rookie year with injury and then underwhelmed with a 51.7 PFF grade on 183 snaps in 2023. Rhyan is still only in his age 24 season and could take a step forward, but Newman is already in his age 27 season and is unlikely to develop into more than a backup caliber player.

More likely, the Packers will either move first round pick tackle Jordan Morgan inside to guard, or keep him at tackle and move tackle Zach Tom inside. Tom was only a 4th round pick in 2022, but flashed talent with a 68.3 PFF grade on 489 snaps as a rookie before breaking out as the Packers’ best offensive lineman in 2023, making 17 starts at tackle with a 77.8 PFF grade. It’s a little risky to change his position after such a strong season at tackle, but Tom has the versatility to play guard or even center and it sounds like the Packers think he has even greater upside long-term on the inside.

Assuming one of Tom or Morgan moves inside, Rasheed Walker figures to continue starting at tackle opposite whichever of Tom or Morgan stays outside. Walker was only a 7th round pick in 2022 and didn’t play an offensive snap as a rookie, but he was solid with a 66.4 PFF grade in 15 starts at tackle in 2023 in place of the injured Bakhtiari and, while he doesn’t have a big upside, he could remain at least a capable starting tackle in 2024. If Tom and Morgan start at tackle, Walker would move to the swing tackle role, but most likely he’ll remain in the starting lineup. The Packers also signed veteran Andre Dillard, a former first round pick, in free agency, but he’s been middling at best in just 19 career starts in five seasons in the league, including a 51.0 PFF grade on a career high 562 snaps in 2023, so he’s very likely to be a backup and not a real option to start.

Guard Elgton Jenkins has also played some tackle in his career, but the Packers seem to prefer him at guard. A 2nd round pick in 2019, Jenkins has been a solid or better offensive lineman throughout his career, posting grades of 69.2, 67.7, 82.1, 72.3, and 65.4 on PFF in five seasons in the league. His career best season in 2021 was shortened to 496 snaps in 8 games by a torn ACL, but he’s only missed four games in his other 4 seasons combined. Still only in his age 29 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024.

At center, Josh Myers remains, but could move to guard if the Packers decide center is Zach Tom’s best spot. Myers was a 2nd round pick in 2021 and has made 40 starts in three seasons in the league, including all 34 in two seasons since an injury plagued rookie season, but he has been pretty mediocre, with grades of 58.3, 60.4, and 55.8 from PFF in three seasons in the league. Only in his age 26 season, he may have some untapped upside, but most likely he’ll remain a middling at best starter at whatever position he ends up and, given the depth on this offensive line, it’s possible he winds up getting benched if he struggles to start the season or disappoints in training camp. The Packers also used a 5th round pick on Jacob Monk, a versatile offensive line whose best pro position is likely center, but he’s unlikely to see significant playing time at any position as a rookie, barring multiple injuries. This isn’t an elite offensive line, but it’s not a bad group either and the Packers have a lot of versatile options.

Grade: B

Interior Defenders

The success the Packers had down the stretch last season actually came in spite of their defense getting worse as the season went on, as their offense improved so much that they were able to cover for the other side of the ball. On offense, the Packers averaged 5.58 yards per play and had a 31.35% first down rate last season and those jump to 5.84 yards per play and a 32.85% first down rate if you more heavily weight their late season games. On defense, the opposite happened as their 5.37 yards per play allowed and 31.16% first down rate allowed jump to 5.54 and 31.51% if you more heavily weight their late season games.

The Packers made a few changes on defense this off-season, but none of those were at the interior defender position, where Kenny Clark (809 snaps), TJ Slaton (627 snaps), Devonte Wyatt (552 snaps), Karl Brooks (379 snaps), and Colby Wooden (256 snaps) were their top-5 last season and all return for 2024. They should all have similar roles this season, though it’s worth noting that all five played all 17 games last season, which is highly unlikely to happen again this season.

Overall, the group was decent, but unspectacular last season. Kenny Clark was the best of the bunch, which has been the case for years, but his 68.8 PFF grade was actually low by his standards, as he surpassed 70 on PFF in five straight seasons from 2017-2021, including two seasons over 80. Clark also had a 66.4 PFF grade in 2022, so it’s possible he’s starting to regress, but he’s still only in his age 29 season, so he could have some bounce back potential. 

Clark’s run defense is what has fallen off the most, but as a pass rusher he still had 7.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 12.5% pressure rate last season, even better than his career pass rush stats of 34 sacks, 45 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate in 123 games. He should continue being an effective pass rusher and his run defense has a chance to bounce back. He’s also by far the most experienced of the bunch, now entering his 9th season in the league, after being a first round draft choice in 2016.

Devonte Wyatt also was a much better pass rusher than run stopper in 2023, with a 80.4 PFF grade as a pass rusher and 5.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 14.8% pressure rate, but just a 46.4 grade against the run. Wyatt was a first round pick in 2022 and flashed some potential in a limited role as a rookie with a 69.9 overall PFF grade on 224 snaps. Now going into his third season in the league, he could take a step forward, though it’s worth noting he was an old rookie and is already in his age 26 season. Either way, he should remain at least the kind of player he was last year, effective as a pass rusher, but a liability against the run.

Wooden and Brooks were also both much better against the pass than against the run, posting run defense grades of 51.6 and 44.5 respectively on PFF, but impressing with pressure rates of 9.6% and 9.8% respectively. Both were rookies, taken in the 4th and 6th round of the 2023 NFL Draft respectively, and both could take a step forward in year two, but neither has a huge upside, so that’s far from a guarantee. Another player on a rookie contract, TJ Slaton was the best of the bunch against the run in 2023, which is to be expected from a big 6-5 330 pounder like him. 

Slaton being the best of the bunch against the run was mostly by default though. A 5th round pick in 2021, Slaton has mostly been a situational run stopper throughout his career, playing more snaps against the run (663) than against the pass (552) in his career and managing just a 4.5% pressure rate for his career. He’s been unspectacular in that situational role, struggling with a 44.2 PFF grade against the run as a rookie and then posting grades of 61.8 and 62.0 over the past two seasons, much better than his rookie year, but still underwhelming. Now in his age 27 season, it’s unlikely Slaton has much untapped upside, so he should remain an underwhelming base package player. Overall, this is a young group that could be better in 2024 than it was in 2023, but that’s far from a guarantee and they’re unlikely to all remain healthy all season like they did a year ago.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

The Packers didn’t make any changes at the edge defender position either, with Preston Smith (730 snaps), Rashan Gary (586 snaps), Kingsley Enagbare (453 snaps), and Lukas Van Ness (366 snaps) all returning as their top-4 edge defenders. There could still be differences this season though, as Gary and Van Ness could see more playing time, with Gary going now being another year removed from the torn ACL that ended his 2022 season and Van Ness now going into his second season in the league, after being a first round pick by the Packers in 2023. It’s also worth noting that, like their top interior defenders, none of their top edge defenders missed any time with injury in 2023, which is highly unlikely to happen again this season.

Despite it being his first season back from a major injury, Gary still played at a high level in 2024, posting a 80.0 PFF grade and excelling as a pass rusher, with 9 sacks, 12 hits, and a 15.6% pressure rate. Gary had a 89.3 PFF grade and a 82.9 PFF grade in 2021 and 2022 respectively while totaling 15.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 17.8% pressure rate across the season and a half before his injury, so it’s possible Gary could be even better in his second season removed from the injury in 2024, still only in his age 27 season. The former first round pick (2019) Gary is also likely to see closer to the 42.4 snaps per game he played in the year and a half before his injury than the 34.5 snaps per game he played in his first season back in 2023. Van Ness, meanwhile, was decent with a 64.0 PFF grade in his limited rookie year action and has the upside to take a big step forward in a bigger role in year two.

If Gary and Van Ness see more playing time, it would likely come at the expense of Preston Smith, who now heads into his age 32 season and could become more of a rotational player as he ages. Smith had a solid season in 2023, receiving a 73.9 overall grade from PFF, playing the run well and adding 8 sacks, 14 hits, and a 10.7% pressure rate as a pass rusher. He’s mostly been a capable starter throughout his career, surpassing 60 on PFF in 8 of 9 seasons in the league, while playing an average of 46.5 snaps per game with just one game missed in his career, but last season was the third best PFF grade of his 9-year career, so it’s unlikely he’ll be as good again in 2024, especially given his age. Still, he should be a useful rotational player, likely in a smaller role than he’s used to.

Kingsley Enagbare should also remain a rotational player, after the 2022 5th round pick has shown decently in that role the past two seasons, with PFF grades of 61.4 and 64.5 respectively on snap counts of 465 and 453 respectively, holding up against the run and totaling 5 sacks, 11 hits, and a 10.6% pressure rate. Still very young in his age 24 season, it’s possible he could take a step forward in 2024, but even if he doesn’t, he should remain a capable rotational player. The Packers probably won’t have the same health at the edge defender position that they had a year ago and Preston Smith’s age is a concern, but Rashan Gary should play more and possibly at a higher level, now another year removed from his ACL tear, while Kingsley Enagbare and Lukas Van Ness are young players who could take a step forward.

Grade: A-

Linebackers

The Packers did make a big change at the linebacker position this off-season, parting ways with veteran every down linebacker De’Vondre Campbell as a cap casualty. Campbell was one of the better players in the league at his position in his prime, but he fell to a 65.3 PFF grade while being limited to 575 snaps in 11 games by injury last season and the Packers saved 10.75 million by cutting him ahead of his age 31 season in 2024, so it’s understandable why they moved on.

The Packers used a second round pick on Edgerrin Cooper as Campbell’s long-term replacement and, without another good option, he’s expected to start and be an every down player right away. He profiles as a long-term starter, but could easily struggle through growing pains in year one. If Cooper doesn’t lock down the job in the off-season, the Packers’ only alternative would be Isaiah McDuffie, who played 511 snaps last season, mostly as an injury replacement when Campbell was out, and struggled with a 58.4 PFF grade. A 6th round pick in 2021, McDuffie didn’t play well in smaller snap counts in his first two seasons in the league either (511 total snaps) and would almost definitely struggle in a season-long starting role.

At the other linebacker spot, the Packers have another young linebacker, 2022 1st round pick Quay Walker. Walker has been disappointing thus far in his career. He struggled with a 52.0 PFF grade on 846 snaps as a rookie and, while he was better in year two, he was still mediocre, with a 60.0 PFF grade on 848 snaps. He still has a lot of upside and easily could have his best season yet in year three in 2024, but that’s far from a guarantee. With an unsettled situation at the other linebacker spot, the Packers need a lot out of Walker. This position group at least has upside with Walker and Cooper both being young, but it easily could be a position of weakness.

Grade: C+

Secondary

The Packers also overhauled the safety position this off-season. Rudy Ford (626 snaps), Darnell Savage (558 snaps), and Jonathan Owens (774 snaps) were all decent as their top-3 safeties last season, with PFF grades of 69.9, 66.3, and 61.9 respectively, but all three were let go this off-season. In their place, the Packers gave a big contract to ex-Giant Xavier McKinney, making him the 4th highest paid safety in the league in average annual salary on a 4-year, 67 million dollar deal, and then used draft picks in the 2nd, 4th, and 5th round on Javon Cooper, Evan Williams, and Kitan Oladipo, with Cooper being the heavy favorite to start opposite McKinney, if only by default.

With inexperience at the other starting safety spot, the Packers will need McKinney to live up to his big contract. If he plays anything like he did last season, when he was PFF’s 4th ranked safety with a 87.5 grade, then he will be well worth what the Packers paid for him. McKinney had never been that good in a season before last year, even receiving a 57.8 grade from PFF in 2022, but he also received grades of 70.0 and 75.4 in 2020 and 2021 and he’s still only in his age 25 season, so, even if he isn’t quite as good as last season, he still has a good chance to play at a high level. Durability is a concern, as the 2020 2nd round pick has missed 18 games in four seasons in the league, but he played in all 17 games last season and in 2021, with all of his missed games coming in 2020 and 2022, so he’s more than capable of making it through a season. He was a good value, even on an expensive contract.

At cornerback, the Packers traded away veteran Rasul Douglas at the trade deadline last year, when the Packers were sellers after their slow start. Douglas’ absence was a big part of the reason why the Packers defense was worse in the second half of last season, succeeding as a team only because their offense was more than able to make up for their defensive decline. The Packers were also without top cornerback Jaire Alexander for much of the second half of last season due to injury, which also contributed to their defensive decline.

The Packers didn’t replace Douglas this off-season, but they should hopefully get more out of Alexander, who was limited to 445 snaps in 7 games, with just two of those games coming after week 9. Alexander had a 70.2 PFF grade when on the field, which was actually the worst single season grade of his 6-year career, as Alexander is one of the best cornerbacks in the league at his best. Alexander received a 90.5 grade in 2020 and a 80.3 grade as recently as 2022 and he’s only going into his age 27 season, but the 2018 1st round pick has also missed 28 games with injury in his career, so there’s a good chance he’ll miss more time and/or be limited with injuries again in 2024. Still, the Packers should get more out of him in 2024 than they did in 2023, which will be a boost for a cornerback group that was a big weakness without him and Douglas down the stretch last season.

In the absence of Alexander and Douglas, the Packers were led in cornerbacks snaps last season by Keisean Nixon (808 snaps), Carrington Valentine (694 snaps), and Corey Ballentine (488 snaps), who all struggled, with PFF grades of 59.0, 57.5, and 60.3 respectively. None have much of a history of success either, as Valentine was just a 7th round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, while Nixon and Ballentine were career special teamers before being forced into significant action in 2023, playing just 563 defensive snaps and 422 defensive snaps respectively in the first four seasons of their career prior to last season. With no significant additions made to this group this off-season, at least one of those three will have to play a significant role at cornerback this season.

It’s possible two of those three will have to play significant roles again in 2024, but the Packers are at least hoping to get something out of Eric Stokes. Stokes was their first round pick in 2021 and his career got off to a decent start, with a 66.3 PFF grade on 934 rookie year snaps, but injuries have limited him to a 53.7 PFF grade in 477 snaps and a 51.5 PFF grade in 110 snaps over the past two seasons respectively. Stokes is only in his age 25 season and still has upside, but he’s far from a guarantee to stay healthy and, even if he does, he’ll have to earn a role, despite the issues the Packers have at the cornerback position. The Packers have a pair of high level defensive backs in cornerback Jaire Alexander and Xavier McKinney, but both have significant injury histories and the rest of this group is a big concern.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Packers were the youngest team in the league in 2023 in terms of average age and by a pretty significant margin, but they got significantly better as the season went on and surprisingly made the post-season and won a game, in large part due to the breakout of young quarterback Jordan Love, but also because of other young players improving. Going into 2024, the Packers remain the youngest team in the NFL. They probably won’t be as good as they were down the stretch last season, but they should be better overall than they were a year ago, if you include their slow start to last season.

Update: A tough schedule could prevent the Packers from taking a step forward in win total, but they still look like a playoff team.

Prediction: 9-8, 3rd in NFC North

Quarterback

For decades, no one has had more continuity at the quarterback position than the Packers who, outside of a few spot starts by quarterbacks filling in for an absent starter, have had just two quarterbacks since Brett Favre’s first season with the team in 1992. Favre went on to make every start for the Packers over the next 16 seasons until 2007 and, while he didn’t have the same durability as Favre, Aaron Rodgers took over in 2008 and was the Packers’ primary starter all the way through 2022, while missing just 19 starts over that 15-year stretch. That will change this season though, as the Packers have turned the page at the quarterback position and will start Jordan Love, who will become just the third different week one starter the Packers have had since Favre arrived back in 1992.

It’s a move that has been three years in the making, dating back to the selection of Love with the 26th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft. It was a surprising move at the time because quarterback didn’t seem like a pressing need for a team that had just made the NFC Championship game the year before, especially not a need that the Packers would have to trade up a few spots from 30th to address. The selection looked even less necessary a year later, with Rodgers, who previously had shown some signs of decline in his mid-30s, turning back the clock to win the 2020 MVP, while the raw prospect Love struggled behind the scenes. Complicating matters for the Packers, Rodgers, unhappy with his successor being selected, threatened to retire the following his 2020 MVP season if he wasn’t traded. 

The Packers’ original plan after drafting Love was likely to trade Rodgers following the 2020 season and start the youngster Love in 2021 and beyond, but with Rodgers coming off of an MVP year and Love struggling behind the scenes, the Packers’ plans changed and they spent most of the off-season convincing Rodgers to stay, agreeing to give him a pay raise on his current contract the following off-season if he returned to the team. Rodgers returned and followed his 2020 MVP season up with another MVP season in 2021, which left Love’s long-term status in limbo, especially with Rodgers receiving a new contract with hefty guarantees.

However, Rodgers was not the same in 2022, finishing with a 77.5 PFF rating that was the second lowest of his 15-year tenure as starter and posting a 91.1 QB rating, his lowest single-season mark as a starter, leading to the Packers missing the playoffs at 8-9, after three straight seasons for 13 wins. In total, Rodgers completed just 64.6% of his passes for an average of 6.82 YPA, 26 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions last season.

A thumb injury was part of the problem, but Rodgers’ age was also a concern, with 2022 being his age 39 season and, with Love making progress behind the scenes and Rodgers salary set to increase significantly in 2023, the Packers finally made the decision to move on from Rodgers in favor of Love this off-season, sending Rodgers to the Jets for a second round pick in this year’s draft and a conditional second round pick next year that can become a first round pick if Rodgers meets some achievable benchmarks. 

Rodgers being gone opens up the job for Love, but what kind of play we can expect from him in 2023 is something of a mystery. Love struggled mightily in his only career start, completing 19 of 34 for 190 yards, a touchdown, and an interception, but that was back in 2021 and by all accounts Love has improved behind the scenes since then. Love showed that improvement in very limited action on the field in 2022, completing 14 of 21 for 195 yards, a touchdown, and no interceptions, but it’s hard to extrapolate anything from a very limited amount of what was mostly meaningless action, playing primarily in garbage time of games that were already decided.

The Packers know Love’s development better than anyone and it’s telling that they are comfortable making this kind of move and giving Love the keys to the car, but that doesn’t necessarily mean Love will be an upgrade even on the diminished version of Rodgers that we saw in 2022. Rodgers being traded likely had more to do with his age, salary, and the kind of return the Packers got for him than it has to do with the Packers viewing Love as a legitimate upgrade in the short-term. Love’s contract status also made it almost necessary for the Packers to get a look at him in 2023, the last cost-controlled year of his rookie contract.

Even with Rodgers gone, the Packers were faced with a tough decision this off-season on Love’s 5th year option for 2024. If the Packers picked it up, they would be guaranteeing about 20.272 million in 2024 to a player who has barely played for them yet, but if they declined it Love would be set to be a free agent next off-season and if he was even a middling starter in 2023, it would likely cost the Packers significantly more than the 5th year option to keep him long-term. The Packers did a good job finding a happy medium with Love, declining the option, but also signing him to a one-year extension for 2024 that guarantees him less than the 5th year option would have (13.5 million), but that also could pay Love more (up to 22.5 million) if he meets certain incentives. 

With that extension, the Packers are tied to Love as their starter for at least the next two seasons and will need him to play at a relatively high level, without another option on the roster. In fact, the Packers have arguably the worst backup quarterback situation in the league, with their only backup options currently being Danny Etling, a 2018 7th round pick with zero career attempts who briefly converted to receiver, and 5th round rookie Sean Clifford, both of whom would almost definitely struggle mightily if Love missed time with injury. The Packers should find a better backup option before training camp, especially with such an unproven starter. Love has upside, but might not be an upgrade even over the diminished performance they got from Aaron Rodgers last season and he could easily be a downgrade from Rodgers if his improvement behind the scenes doesn’t translate to live games.

Grade: C+

Receiving Corps

Along with his age and his injured thumb, a big part of the reason why Rodgers didn’t play up to his normal standards in 2022 was that he was throwing to a receiving corps that wasn’t up to its normal standards, with one of the least experienced receiving corps in the league. Things won’t be much better for Jordan Love in 2023 and, in fact, this group will be even less experienced this year, losing veteran receiver Allen Lazard in free agency, leaving them without their leading receiver from a year ago (60/788/6), and also losing by far their most experienced wide receiver Randall Cobb (34/417/1 in 2022).

Even without Lazard and Cobb though, there are reasons to expect this receiving corps to be better than a year ago, as the Packers have several talented young receivers with upside. The most promising of those receivers is probably Christian Watson, a 2nd round pick in 2022. Watson struggled to even get on the field early in the year, but became a regular starter by mid-season and caught 31 passes for 523 yards and 7 touchdowns in his final 8 games, while averaging 2.26 yards per route run (11th in the NFL among wide receivers) on the season. Watson was considered very raw entering the league, but things seemed to click for him in the second half of last season and, while he could be hurt by Rodgers’ absence, he still has a good chance to continue playing at a high level into 2023 and beyond. 

Romeo Doubs was the other rookie wide receiver who played a significant role for this team in 2022, seeing 529 snaps in 13 games, actually even more than Watson, who only played 507 snaps on the season as a result of his early season struggles. Doubs wasn’t as effective as Watson though, totaling a decent 42/425/3 slash line, but averaging just 1.36 yards per route run and earning just a 62.6 PFF rating, as opposed to 77.1 for Watson. Doubs was only a 4th round pick and doesn’t nearly have Watson’s upside, but he could take a step forward in year two as well, even if he ends up being an underwhelming #2 receiver.

The Packers also used another high pick on a wide receiver this year, taking Michigan State’s Jayden Reed in the second round and, while he’ll likely have some growing pains as a rookie, he also comes with a lot of upside and shouldn’t have much trouble winning the #3 receiver job in this offense, at the very least. His primary competition will be 2022 7th round pick Samori Toure, who played just 112 offensive snaps and caught just five passes as a rookie, as well as 5th and 7th round rookies Dontayvion Wicks and Grant DuBose, who are unlikely to have a significant impact in year one. With a complete lack of proven wide receivers, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if the Packers top-5 or top-6 wide receivers this year were all in their first and second years in the league. It’s a group that comes with a lot of downside, especially with an inexperienced signal caller throwing them the ball, but they also have obvious upside as well.

The Packers also are young at the tight end position this season, after letting middling veteran starter Robert Tonyan and talented veteran run blocker Marcedes Lewis leave in free agency. In their absence, the Packers will have 2020 3rd round pick Josiah Deguara, who has played just 657 career snaps and has averaged just 1.11 yards per route run in three seasons in the league, competing with rookies Luke Musgrave and and Tucker Kraft, who were selected in the second and third rounds in this year’s draft. Musgrave and Kraft have upside, but will almost definitely go through growing pains in year one, while Deguara has yet to show himself to be a capable starting caliber tight end. Like at wide receiver, this is a very young group with upside, but significant downside as well. 

Grade: C+

Running Backs

With an inexperienced receiving corps, the Packers put an emphasis on using their running backs in the passing game last season, with lead back Aaron Jones finishing second on the team behind Allen Lazard with 72 targets and backup AJ Dillon getting another 43 targets as well. Neither were efficient targets, totaling slash lines of 59/395/5 and 28/206/0 respectively, an average of 5.49 yards per target and 4.79 yards per target respectively, but with the Packers’ receiving corps remaining a question mark, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see both backs have similar passing game usage in 2023.

Jones was much more efficient as a runner than he was in the passing game, averaging 5.26 YPC on 213 carries, ranking 6th with a 56% carry success rate, and finishing as PFF’s 7th ranked running back overall, while earning PFF’s 2nd highest grade among running backs as a runner (90.7). That’s nothing new for Jones, who has averaged 5.11 YPC on 1,035 carries in six seasons in the league, while never receiving a run grade from PFF lower than 79.3 and finishing above 83 in four of six seasons. Going into his age 29 season, he’s getting up there in age for a running back, but he’s stayed relatively fresh splitting carries for most of his career (12 carries per game in 86 career games) and he hasn’t shown any signs of decline yet, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him continue playing well into 2023.

AJ Dillon wasn’t nearly as productive as a runner as Jones, averaging 4.14 YPC on 186 carries, but he was equally effective in keeping this offense on track, ranking 5th with a 57% carry success rate, and he also was PFF’s 5th ranked running back in terms of run grade (88.1). That’s similar to what Dillon did in 2021, when he averaged 4.29 YPC on 187 carries, ranked 1st with a 63% carry success rate, and was PFF’s 3rd ranked running back in run grade (90.0). He’s arguably the best #2 running back in the league and the 2020 2nd round pick may have further untapped upside, going into his 4th season in the league. Jones and Dillon give the Packers one of the best running back duos in the league and both backs are also capable of handling the load as the featured back for a stretch if the other one gets hurt.

Grade: A

Offensive Line

Offensive line was a concern for the Packers heading into 2022, but, despite the Packers’ disappointing season overall, the Packers’ offensive line was probably better than expected. The biggest concern going into last season was that arguably their two best offensive linemen, David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins, were coming off of significant injuries, but both played most of the season and turned in pretty good years, with Bakhtiari finishing as PFF’s 11th ranked offensive tackle in 11 starts (79.8 grade) and Jenkins finishing 12th among guards in 15 starts (72.3 grade). 

Jenkins could be even better in 2023, another year removed from the injury, still in his prime in his age 28 season. A 2019 2nd round pick, Jenkins has earned an above average grade from PFF in all four seasons in the league and had a 82.1 PFF grade in 2021 prior to going down with injury, so he comes with a pretty low floor and has the upside to be one of the best guards in the league if he plays as well as he did in 2021 before getting hurt. Jenkins also has the ability to move to tackle if needed, making five starts at right tackle in 2022.

Bakhtiari’s long-term outlook is not as favorable though, even another year removed from the injury that kept him out for almost all of the 2021 season. Bakhtiari should play more games than he did a year ago, when injuries kept him out of six contests, but unlike Jenkins, Bakhtiari is not in his prime anymore, going into his age 32 season, and durability remains a significant concern for him going forward, given how much time he has missed over the past two seasons. Bakhtiari was a better player than Jenkins in his prime, finishing in the top-7 among offensive tackles on PFF in 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2020 and, even at less than his best in 2022, he was still one of the better offensive tackles in the league, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he continued declining in 2023 and, even if he doesn’t, his best days are almost definitely behind him at this point.

With Bakhtiari missing six games last season, Zach Tom was forced into 489 rookie year snaps, but, despite only being a 4th round pick, Tom held up pretty well, finishing the season with a PFF grade of 68.3, while seeing action both at guard and tackle. This year, Tom will likely compete with Yosh Njiman for the right tackle job, with the loser of that battle providing depth as the swing tackle. Njiman went undrafted in 2019 and barely played in his first two seasons in the league, but he’s made 21 starts over the past two seasons with Bakhtiari and Jenkins missing time with injury and has held up decently, earning PFF grades of 63.2 and 63.1 respectively. Tom probably has a little more upside, but both are decent options on the right side.

With Jenkins healthy, Tom’s path to playing time at guard is likely blocked, with Jon Runyan locked in as the other starting guard. Runyan was only a 6th round pick in 2020, but he has made 33 starts over the past two seasons and has been decent, finishing with PFF grades of 65.1 and 62.6 respectively. He might not have the upside to be more than a decent starter, but he’s not a bad starting option and comes with a relatively low floor. He and Jenkins will be backed up by Royce Newman, who struggled across 451 snaps last season, after struggling across 1,084 snaps as a 4th round rookie in 2021. Newman could still have untapped upside and isn’t a bad backup, but would likely struggle if forced into significant action again in 2023.

Center Josh Myers completes this offensive line. The 2021 2nd round pick missed most of his rookie season with injury, limited to 293 snaps, but made all 17 starts last season and was decent, finishing with a 60.4 PFF grade. He hasn’t shown himself to be anything more than a decent starter thus far in his career, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him take a step forward in his third season in the league in 2023 and, even if he doesn’t, he should remain at least a capable starter. Outside of Bakhtiari and Jenkins, the former of whom is going into his age 32 with significant durability concerns, the Packers’ offensive line is pretty nondescript, but this is a solid unit overall.

Grade: B

Edge Defenders

The Packers’ defense was actually a bigger part of the problem last season than their offense, as their offense finished the year 11th in DVOA, while their defense finished 20th. A big part of the problem was the absence of stud edge defender Rashan Gary for the second half of the season after he suffered a torn ACL in week 9. The Packers weren’t a great defense even with Gary, but Gary had been one of the most effective pass rushers in the league prior to going down, totaling 6 sacks, 8 hits, and a ridiculous 18.6% pressure rate. He was PFF’s 14th ranked edge defender overall at the time of his injury, with his pass rush grade ranking 11th at the position.

That’s nothing new for Gary, a 2019 first round pick who had a dominant 2021 campaign as well, finishing 5th among edge defenders overall on PFF and totaling 9.5 sacks, 19 hits, and another ridiculous pressure rate of 18.1%. Gary took a couple years to breakout, but he was one of best pass rushers in the league at the time of his injury and, still only in his age 26 season, has a good chance to bounce back to at least close to his old form in his first season back from injury. He hasn’t had durability issues in the past (two games missed total across his first three seasons in the league) and his future is still really bright.

In Gary’s absence, 5th round rookie Kingsley Enagbare saw the biggest uptick in playing time, but he didn’t come close to matching Gary’s production, finishing his rookie season with a 9.8% pressure rate and a middling 61.4 PFF grade across 465 snaps. Enagbare could be better in his second season in the league, but I wouldn’t expect him to see as many snaps as he did a year ago. Not only is Gary returning, but the Packers also used their first round pick on Iowa edge defender Lukas Van Ness, who figures to be no worse than the Packers’ #3 edge defender as a rookie and who has the upside for a lot more.

Van Ness will push Preston Smith, the incumbent starter opposite Gary, for playing time, after Smith had a middling 2022 campaign in which he received a 66.4 PFF grade across 825 snaps and totalled 8.5 sacks, 14 hits, and a 10.1% pressure rate. Smith has had better years, including a 76.3 grade in 2018 and a 81.5 grade in 2021, but, aside from those two seasons, the 8-year veteran hasn’t received a grade higher than 67 from PFF and now he heads into his age 31 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him and he could easily decline further. I would expect a smaller role for him in 2023 with Gary back and Van Ness added in the first round. This is a pretty deep and talented group overall, assuming Rashan Gary can return to form as their top edge defender.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

The Packers lost a pair of interior defenders this off-season who played significant snaps last season, Dean Lowry (482 snaps) and Jarran Reed (705 snaps). Both earned middling grades from PFF, 59.3 and 61.9 respectively, but Reed was at least effective as a pass rusher, totaling 2.5 sacks, 12 hits, and a 8.4% pressure rate from the interior and the Packers didn’t really do anything to replace either one. Instead, they will be relying on a couple younger players stepping into bigger roles, Devonte Wyatt and TJ Slaton.

Devonte Wyatt is the surer bet of the two, going in the first round a year ago and showing promise with a 69.9 PFF grade on 224 rookie year snaps. He has the upside to breakout as an above average every down interior defender in year two and, even if he doesn’t quite do that, he should be an upgrade over Lowry and Reed. Slaton, on the other hand, was only a 5th round pick in 2021 and has earned grades of 52.8 and 61.7 on snap counts of 266 and 333 in his first two seasons in the league respectively. He’ll primarily be counted on as a situational nose tackle, but the 6-5 340 pounder hasn’t shown much as a run stuffer either, earning grades of 44.7 and 61.9 against the run in his first two seasons in the league.

Kenny Clark remains as the Packers’ top interior defender, as he has been for several seasons. The 2016 1st round pick broke out in his second season in the league and received overall grades of 87.3, 90.2, and 79.9 from PFF in 2017, 2018, and 2019. His run defense has fallen off in recent years, but he has still remained a dominant interior pass rusher, with a 11.1% pressure rate over the past two seasons combined and 26.5 sacks, 34 hits, and a 10.5% pressure rate total since his breakout 2017 campaign. He’s still in the prime of his career in his age 28 season, so I would expect more of the same from him in 2023. He may continue struggling against the run, but he should remain a dominant interior pass rusher.

Depth is a concern with the Packers not adding any veterans of note to this group this off-season. They added Auburn’s Colby Wooden and Bowling Green’s Karl Brooks in the 4th and 6th round of the draft respectively, but neither one can be considered a reliable reserve rotational option in year one and if either was forced into a significant role by injuries ahead of them on the depth chart, they would almost definitely struggle. Clark and Wyatt have good upside as the Packers’ top-2 interior defenders, but the Packers’ other options aren’t reliable.

Grade: B

Linebackers

Not much has changed in the Packers’ linebacking corps this off-season, with De’Vondre Campbell and Quay Walker returning as every down players. Walker struggled in 2022, posting a 51.9 PFF grade on 846 snaps, but he was a rookie and the first round pick has the talent to take a big step forward in year two. Campbell, meanwhile, is a 7-year veteran, but didn’t break out until year 6 in 2021, finishing below average on PFF in four of his first five seasons in the league, maxing out with a 69.2 grade in 2017, before finishing the 2021 season with a 85.0 grade and the 2022 season with a 74.2 grade. Campbell is now in his age 30 season and could start to decline soon and, even after two good years, his history of inconsistency is still concerning, but he also has a good chance to remain at least an above average every down linebacker for another year.

Isaiah McDuffie also remains as the likely top reserve, after playing 175 nondescript snaps in 2022. McDuffie was only a 6th round pick in 2021 and has played just 176 total career snaps on defense, so he would likely prove to be overmatched if forced into a significant role by either Campbell or Walker missing an extended period of time, but he’s not a bad depth option. Campbell might not be as good in 2023 as he has been in 2021 and 2022, but any regression the Packers get from Campbell could be offset by Walker improving in year two and this is a solid linebacking corps overall.

Grade: B

Secondary

Things are mostly the same in the secondary for the Packers this season as well. The one big difference is the Packers let veteran safety Adrian Amos walk in free agency after a disappointing 2022 season in which he finished 88th among 96 eligible safeties on PFF with a grade of 53.4. The Packers didn’t really replace him though and their best option to start in his absence is likely Rudy Ford, who earned a 74.6 PFF grade on 443 snaps last season as the Packers’ third safety, but who has made just 10 career starts on defense in six seasons in the league and struggled with a 57.7 PFF grade on 423 snaps in the only other season of significant action in his career in 2021. It’s possible the 2017 6th round pick could prove to be a late bloomer and turn into a solid starter, but the odds are against it.

Ford’s primary competition for the starting role will be a pair of underwhelming free agency signings, Tarvarius Moore and Jonathan Owens. Moore was a third round pick by the 49ers in 2018, but has mostly made his living as a special teamer, making 13 defensive starts in five seasons in the league and maxing out with 541 snaps played in 2020, a year in which he managed a mediocre 60.2 PFF grade. Owens, meanwhile, made 17 starts for the Texans last season, but he finished as PFF’s 92nd ranked safety out of 96 eligible with a 48.3 PFF grade and the 2018 undrafted free agent has only played 178 other defensive snaps in his career outside of last season. 

The situation at safety is made worse by the fact that the player locked in as the other starter is Darnell Savage, who is coming off of a terrible season in which he finished as PFF’s 93rd ranked safety out of 96 eligible with a 47.5 PFF grade and who was briefly benched last season. Savage has had better days in the past, as the 2019 first round pick earned grades of 65.7 and 72.1 in his first two seasons in the league respectively, but he also struggled with a 57.3 PFF grade in 2021 and is no guarantee to find his old form again. The Packers could also get below average play at both safety spots again in 2023, even with Amos not being retained.

The other difference in this secondary from a year ago is the Packers should get a healthier season out of starting cornerback Eric Stokes, who was limited to 477 snaps in 9 games by injury last season. Stokes was struggling even before getting hurt, earning a 53.7 grade from PFF, but he was better in 14 starts as a rookie in 2021 (65.5) and the former first round pick has the talent to develop into an above average starter long-term. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’s going to make a big leap in year three in 2023, but he has a good chance to if he’s healthy and, even if he doesn’t, I would expect more out of him than the Packers got from him in 2022, when he struggled and missed half the season.

Keisean Nixon filled in admirably for Stokes as the third cornerback last season, with a 63.9 PFF grade on 290 snaps last season, but he shouldn’t be any higher than the 4th cornerback going into 2023, which is a better fit for him, considering the 2019 undrafted free agent is very unproven, playing just 564 total defensive snaps in his career. He’s flashed some potential, but could easily struggle if forced into significant action again in 2023.

Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas remain as the other two of the Packers’ top-3 cornerbacks. Alexander is their top cornerback and one of the best cornerbacks in the league. He finished last season as PFF’s 10th ranked cornerback with a 80.3 grade and isn’t a one-year wonder, finishing #1 among cornerbacks on PFF with a 90.7 grade in 2020, with a lost year due to injuries in 2021 in between. The 2018 first round pick has only missed five games in his other four seasons in the league, so he’s doesn’t really have a history of injuries and, still only going into his age 26 season, he’s very much in the prime of his career so I would expect him to remain one of the top cornerbacks in the league for years to come.

Douglas, meanwhile, is a journeyman who was with five different teams between being drafted in the 3rd round by the Panthers in 2017 and joining the Packers in 2021, but he has found a home in Green Bay, playing 734 snaps and 915 snaps respectively over the past two seasons and earning PFF grades of 74.5 and 71.1 respectively. Douglas also earned a 72.5 PFF grade on 660 snaps in 2018, so his solid play the last two seasons hasn’t come completely out of nowhere and, still only going into his age 28 season, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him keep it up for a third season in a row. Safety remains a position of weakness for the Packers in the secondary, but they should get good cornerback play again, perhaps even better than a year ago, with Eric Stokes returning from injury.

Grade: B

Conclusion

The Packers have a wide range of outcomes this season because of the uncertainty around inexperience starting quarterback Jordan Love. Love has the upside to be at least a solid starting quarterback, but he also could prove to be a significant downgrade from Aaron Rodgers, for a Packers team that went 8-9 even with Rodgers. Beyond their quarterback concerns, the Packers also have a very inexperienced receiving corps and a questionable defense. In a weak NFC, the Packers could be a playoff team, but they’ll need Love to not be a significant downgrade under center.  I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 7-10, 2nd in NFC North