Packers

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: 2013 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 13 NFL Picks, Lions, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (5-5-1) at Detroit Lions (6-5)

The Lions were sitting pretty atop the NFC North two weeks ago at 6-3. Now two weeks later? Well, they still lead the division, but largely because of the ineptitude of their division rivals over the past 2 weeks. The Lions have lost their last two games, both as favorites, to the Steelers and the Buccaneers and now sit at 6-5. However, I’m not going to knock them that much for those two losses. They were in tough spots in each game, coming off of a close win in Chicago before the Pittsburgh game and then going into a divisional Thursday Night Game after the Tampa Bay game. Both teams are also better than their records.

The Lions are also -8 in turnovers over the past 2 games. The fact that both games have even been close in spite of that is an accomplishment in itself. Turnover margins are pretty inconsistent on a week to week basis and the Lions were +1 on the season before the last two games so I don’t think it’s something that’s necessarily going to hurt them here again. Assuming it doesn’t, they should win pretty easily here. They’re still moving the chains at a 77% rate, as opposed to 75% for their opponents, a differential that is still a solid 11th in the NFL.

They deserve to be favored by more than 6 over the Packers as long as Aaron Rodgers is out, which he will be. This game is in Detroit and home field is usually 3 points, so this line is saying the Lions are only 3 points better than the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. I don’t think that’s true at all. Since he went down, the Packers have lost at home to the Bears and Eagles, by a combined 21 points, lost in New York to the Giants by 14, and tied at home with the lowly Vikings.

You could argue Rodgers deserves the MVP trophy for how poorly his team has fared without him. Matt Flynn will probably be an upgrade over Scott Tolzien, but I’m not convinced Flynn is even an average backup at this point, considering his struggles in the year and a half he was away from Green Bay. He’s posted some nice stats in Green Bay’s system, including 21 of 36 for 218 yards and a touchdown in relief of Tolzien, forcing a tie last week, but it’s not a big enough sample size for me to be convinced. Besides, Minnesota, who he faced last week, has one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

Also, don’t forget how big of a game this is for the Lions. They have lost their last 9 Thanksgiving games by an average of 19.4 points per game, including 3 to the Packers by an average of 15 points per game. They’ve also lost 22 of their last 25 to the Packers in general, getting outscored by an average of 10.4 points per game across all 25 games. They have a lot of demons to vanquish and a perfect opportunity to do so with Aaron Rodgers out.

This is the first time they’ve been favored on Thanksgiving since before the losing streak began and only the 5th time they’ve been favored against the Packers since the 22 of 25 stretch began. This is only the 2nd time they’ve been favored over the Packers by more than a field goal. I think they’re going to give it everything they have to capitalize on this opportunity and I really think a big part of the reason why they fell flat last week was because this game this week meant so much to them. I think they’ll play like it.

Also, the Packers could very well be exhausted in this one, on a short week after essentially playing 5 quarters last week. Teams are 4-8 ATS since 1989 off of a tie in general, which isn’t a big sample size, but it makes sense and it’s worth noting. Also worth noting, teams are 3-17 ATS since 1989 on Thursday Night after an overtime game, including 1-13 ATS on the road, which also makes sense. And the majority of those teams didn’t even go the full overtime as the Packers are just the 3rd team in that time frame to play a Thursday Night game off of a tie. The previous two both failed to cover, losing against the spread by an average of 8 points per game. This is a near impossible situation for the Packers, especially at 1 PM start.

There is one reason why this isn’t a bigger play and that’s the situation both of these teams are in. The Lions are favorites before being underdogs in Philadelphia next week, while the Packers will host the Falcons next week. Teams are 52-86 ATS since 2008 as home favorites before being road underdogs when their opponent will next be home favorites. However, I don’t think you can just blindly follow that trend. I don’t think it’s very likely the Lions get caught looking forward to Philadelphia next week when they have this incredible opportunity this week. I like the Lions a lot. They are also my Survivor Pick.

Detroit Lions 34 Green Bay Packers 20 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Detroit -6

Confidence: Medium

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Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 12 NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (2-8) at Green Bay Packers (5-5)

One of the most powerful trends in football says that divisional home favorites rarely cover before being divisional road dogs. Teams are 18-49 ATS in that spot since 2002, which is ridiculously low and impossible to ignore. The Packers are in that spot this week, as they go to Detroit next week. Making matters even worse, that game is just a few days after this one on Thursday for Thanksgiving. Teams are 27-50 ATS since 2008 as favorites before a Thursday Night Game, including 11-26 ATS before a divisional Thursday Night Game. We saw the Colts and Titans both fall flat in a huge way in this situation 2 weeks ago and the Saints had their first non-cover at home under Sean Payton since 2010 last week in this scenario, snapping a streak of 13 straight covers.

The Vikings, on the other hand, are in a good spot as road underdogs off of a road loss. Teams are 98-58 ATS in this spot since 2008 and cover at close to a 65% rate historically no matter what year you use to cut off your sample. The Packers are in no position to be favored by more than 3 against pretty much anyone right now, with Scott Tolzien under center. They are arguably one of the worst teams in the NFL without Aaron Rodgers. It’s a strong play on the Vikings.

Green Bay Packers 24 Minnesota Vikings 23

Pick against spread: Minnesota +5

Confidence: High

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Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 11 NFL Power Rankings, Packers, Uncategorized

Last week: 11 (+0)

Record: 5-4

The Packers just can’t catch a break. Seneca Wallace struggled mightily in relief of an injured Aaron Rodgers against the Bears, completing 11 of 19 for 114 yards and an interception, which makes sense considering he was unprepared. He started out better against Philadelphia, but then got hurt, which led to an even more unprepared Scott Tolzien coming into the game, 6 days removed from the practice squad. He completed 24 of 39 for 280 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Tolzien is now the starter going forward, until Rodgers comes back, with Wallace going on IR. He’ll have more preparation time this week going into New York and has easy games against the Giants and Vikings, before they go to Detroit on Thanksgiving. They won’t win that game without Rodgers though and they probably won’t win the division without winning that game. That will leave them fighting for a wild card in the loaded NFC.

Week 10 Studs

RT Don Barclay

LG Josh Sitton

LE Mike Daniels

CB Tramon Williams

Week 10 Duds

RT Marshall Newhouse

RE BJ Raji

ROLB Clay Matthews

LOLB Mike Neal

MLB Brad Jones

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Green Bay Packers at New York Giants: 2013 Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 11 NFL Picks, Giants, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (5-4) at New York Giants (3-6)

One of the most powerful trends in betting is known as the six and six trend, meaning teams who finish with 6 wins or fewer are 25-69 ATS as favorites of 6 or more since 2002. There are two issues with this trend. One, it’s very rare (it only happened 7 times all last season, going 2-5 ATS). Two, it’s even rarer that a situation will come up in which you can confidently use the trend. The Eagles were 8.5 point favorites in Cleveland last year week 1 (they didn’t cover), but at the time there was no way to know that the Eagles would finish 6-10 or worse.

The Giants, however, sit at 3-6 and would need to go 4-3 or better in order to avoid finishing 6-10 or worse. I think we can safely put them in the six and six trend. Sure, they’ve won 3 straight, but over Oakland, Minnesota, and a Philadelphia team that has lost 10 straight at home. They haven’t looked good in any of them. The turnover margin has been a big problem, as they are -13 in turnovers, and that’s inconsistent, but that’s not their only issue. They have just 164 first downs to 50 punts (3.28 to 1), as opposed to 187 first downs to 45 punts for their opponents (4.16 to 1). When you take turnovers and failed 4th downs into account, they are moving the chains at a 67% rate, as opposed to 74% for their opponents, a differential that is 30th in the NFL.

They don’t deserve to be favored by 6 or more over anyone. They didn’t deserve it last week, when they failed to cover in this exact same situation at home for the Raiders. And they certainly don’t deserve to be favored by 6 or more against a Green Bay team that is better than people think. Yes, they’ve seemed lost without Aaron Rodgers, but remember, this is probably going to be the first time (barring another injury) in 3 weeks that they have the quarterback who prepared all week for this game make it into the 2nd quarter and beyond.

Seneca Wallace struggled mightily in relief of an injured Aaron Rodgers against the Bears, completing 11 of 19 for 114 yards and an interception, which makes sense considering he was unprepared. He started out better against Philadelphia, but then got hurt, which led to an even more unprepared Scott Tolzien coming into the game, 6 days removed from the practice squad. He completed 24 of 39 for 280 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Tolzien is now the starter going forward, until Rodgers comes back, with Wallace going on IR. He’ll have all week to prepare for this game.

Tolzien doesn’t have a good arm, but remember, this is the same coaching staff that made Matt Flynn look not just passable, but deserving of a starting job elsewhere at one point. They have a solid group of veteran’s around him. Clay Matthews’ 2nd game back helps the defense and they still have talent at the skill positions at offense, with guys like Eddie Lacy and Jordy Nelson. This line suggests the Packers are one of the worst teams in the NFL and comparable to the Oakland Raiders. That’s not true at all.

Even with an unprepared Scott Tolzien under center, the Packers only lost 28-13 at home to the Eagles. The Raiders lost 49-20 the week before. If they can cover in New York as 6 point underdogs, so can the Packers. On top of that, the Giants usually don’t do well as big home favorites and don’t usually do well in the 2nd half of seasons. Since Tom Coughlin took over in 2004, they are 7-15 ATS as home favorites of 3.5 or more in week 9 or later, including a non-cover last week. If I didn’t already love Washington +3.5 in Philadelphia this week, this would be my Pick of the Week.

Green Bay Packers 23 New York Giants 20 Upset Pick +200

Pick against spread: Green Bay +6

Confidence: High

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Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#11)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Packers, Uncategorized

Last week: 5 (-6)

Record: 5-3

Despite all of their injuries, the Packers looked like one of the best teams in the NFL before last week and they looked to only be going up as their schedule got easier and they got guys back from injury, like Clay Matthews this week. However, losing Aaron Rodgers for 4-6 weeks might be the straw that breaks their season. Their schedule isn’t very hard over those 6 weeks (Philadelphia, @ NY Giants, Minnesota, @ Detroit, Atlanta, and @ Dallas), but Seneca Wallace was terrible, completing 11 of 19 for 114 yards and an interception, despite facing a weak Chicago defense. He’ll be better going forward as he becomes more prepared and more familiar with the offense, but I think the Packers are safely behind the Lions in the NFC North right now unless Rodgers can somehow make it back for Thanksgiving in Detroit.

Week 9 Studs

RB Eddie Lacy

Week 9 Duds

LE Johnny Jolly

MLB AJ Hawk

ROLB Nate Palmer

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Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 10 NFL Picks, Eagles, Packers, Uncategorized

Philadelphia Eagles (4-5) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)

Trends wise, the Eagles have the advantage here. The Packers will probably be non-divisional road favorites in New York last week and face the Giants and they are non-divisional home favorites this week. Teams are 61-85 ATS in that spot since 2002. Meanwhile, the Eagles are non-divisional road dogs before being divisional home favorites, when they face the Redskins in Philadelphia next week. Teams are 47-36 ATS in that spot since 2008. Putting them both together, road underdogs are 84-49 ATS before being home favorites when their opponent will next be road underdogs.

However, we can’t purely use trends here because of the uncertainty of Green Bay’s quarterback situation. Aaron Rodgers is out. That’s certain, but that’s about it. Seneca Wallace struggled mightily last week, completing 11 of 19 for 114 yards and an interception, despite facing a weak Chicago defense. However, Philadelphia’s defense isn’t any better and they’re probably worse. Wallace will have a whole week to practice as a starter this week and he’ll be prepared to play this time around.

That could really help him and the rest of the Packers’ veteran team could rise up around him. Likewise, the Packers’ coaching staff could get the most out of him the way they did Matt Flynn a few years back. This line shifted about 10 points from last week to this week, from 11 to 1 and the public is all over Philadelphia. That’s a large line movement. It might be justified because Aaron Rodgers is so great, but there’s a chance it’s not, at least in this first game. Because of that, I can’t confidently pick a side. If I had to, I’d take Philadelphia, but I’m not confident.

Philadelphia Eagles 23 Green Bay Packers 20 Upset Pick +105

Pick against spread: Philadelphia +1

Confidence: None

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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 9 NFL Picks, Bears, Packers, Uncategorized

Chicago Bears (4-3) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)

The Packers have been so dominant at home over the past few seasons that they’re almost an automatic bet at home. They are 22-8 ATS at home since 2010. They are large favorites here at -11, but that’s not an issue. They are 9-4 ATS as double digit home favorites in that time frame. Besides, they definitely deserve to be favored by at least 11 points. In fact, this line might even be too low, before you even take into account their home dominance.

After they started the year 1-2, the Packers are now 5-2. They are moving the chains at an 81% rate, as opposed to 71% for their opponents, the 2nd best differential in the NFL. 4 of their first 7 games, including their 2 losses, came against top-15 teams in my Power Rankings. Their schedule gets easier down the stretch and things will only get better as they get guys back from injuries.

They are still missing significant parts of their team for this game, but they draft and player develop so well that they have enough depth to make up for it. Guys like Jamari Lattimore have stepped up big time when needed. They’ve blown out their last 2 opponents, including a win in Minnesota last week in which they accumulated 26 first downs and didn’t punt once. They have another chance to get a blowout victory here against an inferior opponent and I think they have a very good chance to do so here this week.

The Bears are 4-3, but they are not as good as their record. They rank 16th in rate of moving the chains differential, moving the chains at a 77% rate and allowing opponents to do the same. Their once dominant defense has been horrendous this season thanks to age (4 of their top-5 guys are in their age 30 season or older), injury (Henry Melton is out for the year, Charles Tillman is dealing with an injury that is limiting him significantly, now Lance Briggs is out indefinitely), and departed coaches (Lovie Smith, Rod Marinelli) and it seems to get worse every week.

Their offense has been what has been carrying them this season, but that took a serious hit when Jay Cutler suffered a groin injury that is going to cause him to miss about a month. Not only are they not as good as their 4-3 record, but things are going to get worse going forward. Josh McCown played well in place of Cutler against Washington, completing 14 of 20 for 204 yards and a touchdown in an eventual 45-41 loss and it’s possible their offensive coaching staff could coach him up, with a solid supporting cast, but I definitely have my doubts in him.

In his career, he completes 58.2% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 38 touchdowns, and 44 interceptions on 1133 attempts. I have this line calculated at -9 on paper, but when you take into account Chicago’s injury situation and Green Bay’s home dominance, the 11 point line not only makes sense, but might even be too low. I have a good deal of confidence in the Packers this week.

Green Bay Packers 31 Chicago Bears 13

Pick against spread: Green Bay -11

Confidence: Medium

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Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Packers, Uncategorized

Last week: 8 (+3)

Record: 5-2

The Packers have blown out the Browns and Vikings over the past two weeks and were especially impressive against the Vikings in Minnesota. Even the final score of 44-31 doesn’t tell how much of a blowout it was as the Vikings needed incredible special teams to even get to that score. The Packers had 26 first downs and didn’t punt once all game, while the Vikings had 15 first downs and 4 punts. They are moving the chains at an 82% rate on the season, as opposed to 72% for their opponent, a differential that is 2nd in the NFL. Their schedule is pretty easy going forward, as they host Chicago, Philadelphia, Minnesota, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh and go to the Giants, Lions, Cowboys, and Bears. If they can get healthy, they’ll be sneaky dangerous in the post-season, especially if they can get a first round bye and home field advantage.

Week 8 Studs

QB Aaron Rodgers

RB Eddie Lacy

RB James Starks

WR Jordy Nelson

RG TJ Lang

MLB Jamari Lattimore

Week 8 Duds

SS Morgan Burnett

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Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: 2013 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 8 NFL Picks, Packers, Uncategorized, Vikings

Green Bay Packers (4-2) at Minnesota Vikings (1-5)

Josh Freeman was awful last week. He threw 33 incompletions (only 3 of which were drops) on 20 of 53 passing for 190 yards and an interception against a team that was previously one of the worst in the NFL defensively. ProFootballFocus said his performance graded out as the worst they’ve graded since they started in 2008 and it pretty much broke their grading system. It wasn’t totally his fault though. He definitely deserves a lot of the blame because his mechanics and accuracy looked awful, but he wasn’t put in a situation to succeed by the coaching staff. He had been with the team just 14 days and clearly didn’t know the playbook and understandably so.

The Vikings are lucky that he won’t be able go this week with a concussion (or they’re smart for inventing a concussion). Christian Ponder isn’t very good because of his limited arm, but he at least knows the playbook. He played pretty well at home against the Packers last year, completing 16 of 28 for 234 yards and 3 touchdowns, as his lack of arm strength can kind of be hidden inside in a dome where there is no wind. For that reason, I can’t put a lot of confidence in the Packers even though they should be the right side. They’ll be completely focused with only a game at home for the Bears and Josh McCown next week. Divisional road favorites are 36-22 ATS before being divisional away favorites since 2002.

Green Bay Packers 27 Minnesota Vikings 17

Pick against spread: Green Bay -9.5

Confidence: None

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