Packers

Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#8)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Packers, Uncategorized

Last week: 6 (-2)

Record: 4-2

The Packers blew out the Browns this week despite all of their injuries, but they’ve been dominant at home over the past few seasons, possibly even more than even the Seahawks. They are 22-8 ATS at home since 2010 and 27-3 straight up, outscoring opponents by an average 13.9 points per game. They’ll need to prove they can win on the road going forward, though their next road test is in Minnesota, so it’s not much of a test.

Week 7 Studs

CB Davon House

SS Morgan Burnett

Week 7 Duds

RT Don Barclay

TE Andrew Quarless

LOLB Mike Neal

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Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 7 NFL Picks, Browns, Packers, Uncategorized

Cleveland Browns (3-3) at Green Bay Packers (3-2)

The Packers are in a great situational trend spot this week, as non-divisional home favorites here against Cleveland before being divisional road favorites in Minnesota next week. Teams are 47-22 ATS in that spot since 2008. They have no distractions on the schedule and can be completely focused for an obviously inferior opponent. However, this line might be a little bit too here at -10.

The Packers are getting destroyed with injuries. Casey Hayward will make his season debut this week, which is a positive and Morgan Burnett seems to be fine in a few starts back from injury, but that’s about where the positives stop. Middle linebacker Brad Jones is probably out this week. Clay Matthews is out indefinitely and Nick Perry, who was having a great game picking up Matthews’ slack last week, is now also out indefinitely, which leaves them with a converted defensive lineman, a 6th round pick rookie, and an undrafted rookie at rush linebacker.

Offensively, tackles Bryan Bulaga and Derek Sherrod remain out with injuries. Bulaga is out for the season and Sherrod probably won’t play at all this season either. Eddie Lacy is back, but talented slot receiver Randall Cobb was put on short-term injured reserve and James Jones suffered an injury of his own. He’ll probably play, but he could easily be limited. This isn’t a new thing for the Packers. In 2012, they were dead last in adjusted games lost and in 2010, when they won the Super Bowl, they were 30th.

The Browns, meanwhile, are obviously incompetent offensively with Brandon Weeden, but they have a very strong defense, allowing opponents to move the chains at a 72%, as opposed to 71% for their offense. They generally don’t get blown out, with 19 losses by more than a touchdown since the start of the 2010 season. That sounds like a lot, but consider they’ve lost 37 games total since the start of the 2010 season. More than half of their losses have come by a touchdown or less and only 12 have come by more than 10 points.

Of course, they played the Lions close last week and still lost by 14 because of a ridiculous pick six by Brandon Weeden. I wouldn’t be shocked if something like that happened again. The Packers are always especially dominant at home, going 26-3, outscoring opponents by 13.7 points per game and covering 21 out of 29 times. Aaron Rodgers is incredible at home and we could see the Packers blow out the Browns in a very Aaron Rodgers led effort. I wish the line was lower, but the Packers should be the right side. They’re also my survivor pick this week.

Green Bay Packers 27 Cleveland Browns 10 Survivor Pick

Pick against spread: Green Bay -10

Confidence: Medium

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Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 7 NFL Power Rankings, Packers, Uncategorized

Last week: 6 (+0)

Record: 3-2

Last week I spoke about the Packers having disproportionally more injuries than most teams over the past few years. Things went from bad to worse in this aspect for the Packers against the Ravens. Randall Cobb was put on short-term injured reserve and will miss 8 weeks. James Jones suffered an injury of his own. And defensively, Nick Perry, who was in the middle of a brilliant game, picking up Clay Matthews’ slack, is out indefinitely with a broken foot. These injuries could prevent them from being an elite team, but if they can get healthy at the right time, look out.

Week 6 Studs

ROLB Nick Perry

MLB Jamari Lattimore

CB Micah Hyde

SS Morgan Burnett

Week 6 Duds

RT Don Barclay

RG TJ Lang

C Evan Dietrich-Smith

LOLB Mike Neal

FS Jerron McMillian

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Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 6 NFL Power Rankings, Packers, Uncategorized

Last week: 6 (+0)

Record: 2-2

The Packers seem to have disproportionally more injuries than most teams. They had the most injuries in the NFL last year in terms of adjusted games lost. Usually that type of thing usually doesn’t predict future injuries, but so far this year Casey Hayward has yet to play a game, Morgan Burnett and Eddie Lacy have both missed games, Bryan Bulaga is out for the season, Derek Sherrod remains out indefinitely, and now Clay Matthews is out for at least a month and Brad Jones is week-to-week. Even when they won the Super Bowl in 2010, they had a ton of injuries.

Week 5 Studs

QB Aaron Rodgers

LOLB Mike Neal

LOLB Nick Perry

Week 5 Duds

RT Don Barclay

MLB AJ Hawk

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Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens: 2013 Week 6 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 6 NFL Picks, Packers, Ravens, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (3-2)

The Ravens have been one of the premier home teams in the NFL over the past few seasons, going 25-3 at home since 2010. They’re outscore opponents by about a point per game on the road in that time period and by about 11 points per game at home. As a result, they’ve only been underdogs at home a grand total of three times in that time frame, losing once at home to Peyton Manning and the Broncos last season and then winning once at home as dogs last year against the Giants, after they had previously lost 3 straight, and winning against the Texans earlier this season. Those two wins came by a total of 40 points. Given that, I don’t think the Packers deserve to be favored in Baltimore.

Maybe they did a week ago, but losing Clay Matthews really hurts, as he’ll miss at least a month after undergoing surgery to repair a broken thumb. Losing Matthews doesn’t just hurt because he’s one of the top defensive players in the NFL, but because of their suspect depth behind him. Nate Palmer and Andy Mulumba, 6th round and undrafted rookies respectively, are their top reserves at the position. That’s as big of a downgrade as you can possibly get and it comes it a premium position.

Given that, I think these teams are pretty evenly matched. The Packers are moving the chains on 80% of chances, while allowing their opponents to do so on 75% of chances. The Ravens, meanwhile, are moving the chains on 69% of chances, while allowing their opponents to do so on 65% of chances. We’re getting at least 5 or 6 points of line value here even before you take Baltimore’s home field advantage into account.

The Ravens are also in a very good spot in terms of trends. Since 1989, teams are 37-11 ATS as non-divisional home dogs before being divisional road favorites. The Ravens will go to Pittsburgh next week, while they will almost certainly be divisional road favorites. I really like the Ravens’ chances of protecting their home field and pulling the upset here.

Baltimore Ravens 23 Green Bay Packers 20 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Baltimore +3

Confidence: High

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Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 5 NFL Picks, Lions, Packers, Uncategorized

Detroit Lions (3-1) at Green Bay Packers (1-2)

The Packers are 1-2, but this isn’t representative of the type of team they are. They started last year 2-3 and finished 11-5. They’ll be a very good 10-12 win team again this season. The Lions, however, are also very good. I had a 10 win projection for them at the start of the season and that seems very reasonable for them right now. Given that, I want to take Detroit because I think this line is a little high, but there are reasons for taking Green Bay as well.

I think this game means a lot more to the Packers. The Lions will obviously want to get the upset in Green Bay, a place where they haven’t had much success for a really long time. They also are coming off of a bye and are starting to get guys back from injury, including Eddie Lacy. We could easily see a game by the Packers that re-establishes themselves as one of the elite teams in the NFL against a quality Detroit team. I’m not confident either way, but the Packers should be the right side.

Green Bay Packers 31 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against spread: Green Bay -7.5

Confidence: None

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Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings (#6)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 4 NFL Power Rankings, Packers, Uncategorized

Last week: 5 (-1)

The Packers may be 1-2, but they’ve lost to the 49ers and Bengals (two other highly rated teams) in easily winnable games, so I’m not going to hold it against them very much. Their bye is early this year, as they go on bye this week, but it does come at a perfect time as they need their running backs to get healthy. Johnathan Franklin, their 3rd string running back, looked good against a tough Cincinnati run defense, rushing for 103 yards and a touchdown on 13 attempts, but coughed it up at a critical time in the loss.

Week 3 Studs

RT Don Barclay

LG Josh Sitton

MLB Brad Jones

Week 3 Duds

LT David Bakhtiari

LE BJ Raji

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Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals: 2013 Week 3 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Picks, 2013 Week 3 NFL Picks, Bengals, Packers, Uncategorized

Green Bay Packers (1-1) at Cincinnati Bengals (1-1)

I feel like I say this every week, but Andy Dalton is 1-11 in his career against future playoff teams in his first two years in the league, completing 250 of 445 (56.2%) for 2934 yards (6.6 YPA), 12 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions, including two post-season losses. In his other 22 games, he’s 420 of 679 (61.9%) for 4518 yards (6.7 YPA), 35 touchdowns, and 20 interceptions, going 18-4.

Thus far this year, he’s lost to a borderline playoff team in Chicago and beat a maybe not even borderline playoff team in Pittsburgh. Against Chicago, he played better than he usually does against that caliber of opponent, completing 26 of 33 for 282 yards and 2 touchdowns, but he also threw 2 back-breaking interceptions, which is a big part of why they were unable to win.

Against Pittsburgh, still a tough defense regardless of whether or not they make the post-season this year, Dalton struggles, as he has against the Steelers throughout his career, completing 25 of 45 for 280 yards and a touchdown. He managed the game well and avoided the back breaking turnover that cost him in Chicago the week before, but he also missed open receivers and was very reliant on his receivers’ abilities after the catch.

Green Bay this week is a more clearly a playoff team than either of their first two opponents, which is relevant considering this line is less than 3. Green Bay essentially just needs to win here and I think they have a very good chance of doing so. The Packers could have won in San Francisco and they bounced back to demolish the Redskins at home. Aaron Rodgers is playing incredible football right now, completing 55 of 79 (69.6%) for 813 yards (10.3 YPA), 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception (which wasn’t his fault), while leading the Packers to 51 first downs to 9 punts. While the Redskins defense isn’t very good, the 49ers’ defense certainly is and he still shredded them.

Cincinnati has a great defense and overall supporting cast, but that might only serve the Bengals to keep the Packers out of the 30s. They’re going to have to win a shootout if they’re going to win this game and I don’t think that’s something they’re capable of. Dalton is just 2-11 in his career when his defense allows 21 or more points, a situation teams, on average, win 26.8% of the time since Dalton came into the league in 2011. The Packers, meanwhile, have gone over 21 points in 62 of 74 games since the start of the 2009 season. The Packers should be able to take this one.

Green Bay Packers 27 Cincinnati Bengals 20

Pick against spread: Green Bay -2.5

Confidence: Medium

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Green Bay Packers: 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings (#5)

stevenlourie 2013 NFL Power Rankings, 2013 Week 3 NFL Power Rankings, Packers, Uncategorized

Last week: 6

The Packers could have won in San Francisco and they bounced back to demolish the Redskins at home. Aaron Rodgers is playing incredible football right now, completing 55 of 79 (69.6%) for 813 yards (10.3 YPA), 7 touchdowns, and 1 interception (which wasn’t his fault), while leading the Packers to 51 first downs to 9 punts. While the Redskins defense isn’t very good, the 49ers’ defense certainly is and he still shredded them. Once they get healthy defensively, this will be a very scary team.

Week 2 Studs

QB Aaron Rodgers

WR Randall Cobb

WR James Jones

LT David Bakhtiari

RG TJ Lang

RG Josh Sitton

Week 2 Duds

ROLB Clay Matthews

CB Micah Hyde

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