Packers

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings: Week 17 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 17 NFL Picks, Packers, Vikings

Green Bay Packers (11-4) at Minnesota Vikings (9-6)

There are many reasons to like the Vikings here. They’ve played great football at home, going 6-1 with wins over San Francisco and Chicago, as opposed to 3-4 on the road. They played the Packers tight a few weeks back and that was in Green Bay. They’re also playing very good football right now, winning 3 in a row since that Green Bay game. In spite of all this, we’re getting more than a field goal with them at +3.5 and still the public is on Green Bay and the public always loses money in the long run.

We are getting some line value with the Vikings because, while the Packers rank 6th in net points per drive at 0.50, the Vikings rank 16th at 0.04. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per team per game), and shift the line in Minnesota’s favor 2.5 points for home field, you get that Green Bay should be only favored by 2.5, which isn’t much, but that is on the other side of that key field goal number. DVOA backs that up as Green Bay ranks 5th and 4th in regular and weighted DVOA, while the Vikings rank 16th and 19th respectively.

In spite of that, I’m not going against the Packers right now. Somehow the preseason favorites have managed to win 9 of 10 and fly under the radar. It hasn’t always been pretty, but last week against Tennessee it was (at least for them) in a huge blowout win and in spite of injuries, they are once again red hot at the right time this season. They are 11-4 and could easily be 12-3 if not for the replacement refs, which is right around where a lot of people had them at this point before the season (there was no way they were going to match 15 wins). Why aren’t they being talked about more? I bet Aaron Rodgers is asking that same question and he always plays very well when slighted.

Speaking of being slighted, why is Aaron Rodgers (who leads the NFL in QB rating), not being talked about as a legitimate MVP candidate. If he can win here and eliminate Adrian Peterson and the Vikings, I think he should be maybe the MVP front runner considering all the injuries around him on offense (Peterson is the favorite if the Vikings can make the playoffs). I think that’s exactly what will happen. Rodgers is 22-10 ATS on the road as dogs of favorites of 6 or fewer in his career. It’s not a big play and I wish the line were -3 flat, but I like the Packers.

Public lean: Green Bay (70% range)

Green Bay Packers 27 Minnesota Vikings 20

Pick against spread: Green Bay -3.5 (-110) 1 unit

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Green Bay Packers: Week 17 NFL Power Rankings (#1)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 17 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Last week: 7 (+6)

Record: 11-4

Net points per drive: 0.50 (6th)

DVOA: 30.0% (5th)

Weighted DVOA: 27.0% (4th)

Studs

QB Aaron Rodgers: 27 of 38 for 342 yards and 3 touchdowns, 2 drops, 1 throw away, 108.2 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 11 of 42 drop backs (1 sack, 2 scramble, 2 of 8, 1 throw away, 1 drop)

WR James Jones: Caught 7 passes for 100 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts on 44 pass snaps, 7.3 YAC per catch

TE Jermichael Finley: Caught 5 passes for 70 yards on 7 attempts on 30 pass snaps, 6.0 YAC per catch

MLB Brad Jones: Allowed 4 catches for 28 yards on 5 attempts, 8 solo tackles, 6 stops, 1 sack on 10 blitzes

CB Sam Shields: Did not allow a completion on 4 attempts, 1 interception, 1 sack on 1 blitz, 1 stop

MLB AJ Hawk: 5 solo tackles, 6 stops, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 6 blitzes, was not thrown on

ROLB Clay Matthews: 1 sack and 2 quarterback hits on 17 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

RE BJ Raji: 3 quarterback hurries on 20 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RT Don Barclay: Allowed 2 quarterback hits and 3 quarterback hurries on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 2 attempts

LE Mike Daniels: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

K Mason Crosby: 10 kickoffs, 1 touchback, 60.2 yards per kickoff, 24.9 opponent’s average starting distance, 2/2 FG (26, 48)

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers: Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 16 NFL Picks, Packers, Titans

Tennessee Titans (5-9) at Green Bay Packers (10-4)

I’ve called Green Bay overrated because of all their injuries and I still think there’s a lot of truth to that. Injuries at running back have left them with a washed up Ryan Grant, an unproven DuJuan Harris, and fullback John Kuhn to carry the rock. The loss of Bryan Bulaga at right tackle has forced them to start undrafted rookie Don Barclay, who is really struggling. They’ve lost Jordy Nelson from their receiving corps, right as Greg Jennings returned, and Jennings has barely done anything since returning.

Defensively, they have lost linebackers Nick Perry and Desmond Bishop for the season. Perry’s absence, along with the lack of depth at rush linebacker and the ineptitude of their defensive line have left them with one viable pass rusher, Clay Matthews. Bishop’s replacement, DJ Smith, is also out for the season, leaving converted rush linebacker Brad Jones starting at inside linebacker. Charles Woodson also remains out.

The Packers were so good in 2010 despite injuries because they still had key defensive players healthy. Clay Matthews, Desmond Bishop, Cullen Jenkins, BJ Raji, Tramon Williams, Charles Woodson, and Nick Collins were all huge for them on the league’s 2nd ranked scoring defense. Bishop is out for the year and Woodson is out for at least the reminder of the regular season. Jenkins left as a free agent and Raji hasn’t been the same since 2010. Nick Collins had to retire because of injury, leaving Williams and now that he’s healthy Matthews as the only ones of those 7 healthy and playing near their respective 2010 levels this year. They’ve added some nice young players in the meantime, like Casey Hayward, but it’s not enough for them to be considered as good currently as they once were.

Last year, they were so good despite a rough defense because they dominated the turnover battle and scored 35.0 points per game. This year, thanks to injuries and the pure unsustainability of that 35.0 points per game figure, they are averaging just 24.6 points per game (Mason Crosby isn’t helping matters). That’s good, but a far cry from last season. They didn’t come into this season with the goal of being the league’s #13 scoring offense. Meanwhile, their turnover differential is down from +24 to +6. All of this has combined to expose a vulnerable and now injury riddled defense.

As a result, they aren’t playing like the Packers of 2010 and 2011.  Their impressive wins collection is scarce and includes a blowout in Houston, two wins over the Bears, a home win over the Vikings, and a 14 point win at home over the Cardinals. In their other 10 games, they don’t have a single double digit win despite playing Detroit (twice), St. Louis, and Jacksonville. However, in spite of that, the odds makers can boost the spread on name value and know everyone will keep betting, as is the case this week as the Packers are a heavy public lean. I love fading the public because they always lose money in the long run.

Given that the Packers have a real lack of blowout wins this season, I’m instantly drawn to the 12.5 points with Tennessee. The problem is that Tennessee has had no shortage of blowout losses. They’ve lost 5 games by 21 or more and 6 of their 9 losses by come by 14 or more. As a result, even with the Packers’ lack of blowout wins, we’re not really getting any line value here.

The Titans rank 29th in net points per drive at -0.65, while the Packers rank 10th at 0.23. If you take the difference, multiply by 11 (the average numbers of drives per team per game), and add 2.5 for home field, you get that the Packers should be favored by 12, which is right where this line is. DVOA actually suggests that the Packers might be getting some line value here, as they rank 5th in weighted and regular DVOA, while the Titans rank 28th and 29th respectively.

I’m still going with the Titans for several reasons, however. The Packers’ lack of blowout wins is obviously one of them and in spite of the Titans’ large list of blowout losses, only one (a 14 point loss to the Texans) has come since a weird week 9 game in which the Bears took a 28-2 lead almost solely off special teams and returns. Before that, their last one was week 5.

They really got out of the gate horribly, with 4 losses of 21+ in their first 5 games, but since then, their young defense has settled down, allowing 25.0 points per game, 21.8 per game, if you exclude that weird Chicago game which wasn’t really their defense’s fault. They’ve finally started playing like I thought they would before the season, coming off a year in which they actually ranked 8th in the NFL in scoring defense.

The second reason is that there are several prominent trends on Tennessee’s side. Dogs are 108-67 ATS before being favorites since 2011 and the Titans just face the Jaguars next week. Going off that, non-conference dogs are 69-44 ATS before being divisional favorites since 2002. Meanwhile, Teams are 32-11 ATS as non-divisional double digit dogs before being divisional favorites since 1989. If you combine the last two trends, you get that non-conference double digit dogs are 11-5 ATS before being divisional favorites since 1989.

That makes a lot of sense. This is Tennessee’s Super Bowl. All they have left on their schedule is the crappy Jaguars. There are no distractions for them and they’ll be able to give the Packers their all. Green Bay, meanwhile, obviously needs a win here to remain in the hunt for a first round bye, but they don’t need to blow the Titans out and they might not give 100% effort for some 5-9 AFC team, especially with a divisional contest next on the horizon as they face the Vikings next week. Worst case scenario, I like my chances of getting a backdoor cover here or of covering because Mason Crosby left some points on the field for the Packers. It’s not a significant play, but the Titans should be the right side.

Public lean: Green Bay (80% range)

Sharps lean: GB 11 TEN 4

Final thoughts: Late reverse line movement has driven this down to -11, so sharps in general are probably on the Titans. I’m sticking at 2, however.

Green Bay Packers 27 Tennessee Titans 17

Pick against spread: Tennessee +12.5 (-110) 2 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Green Bay Packers: Week 16 NFL Power Rankings (#7)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Last week: 9 (+2)

Record: 10-4

Net points per drive: 0.23 (10th)

DVOA: 23.1% (5th)

Weighted DVOA: 17.3% (5th)

Green Bay is another team that I’m not sold on, but sometimes I wonder if they’re not the sleeper favorites to win the whole thing, once they get healthy, given their recent history. However, just this year, their impressive wins collection is scarce and includes a blowout in Houston, two wins over the Bears, a home win over the Vikings, and a 14 point win at home over the Cardinals. In their other 10 games, they don’t have a single double digit win despite playing Detroit (twice), St. Louis, and Jacksonville.

I think they’ll be the 3rd seed in the playoffs (either because of a San Francisco win in Seattle, or a Green Bay loss in Minnesota) and either way I think they’d lose a rematch to the 49ers, in Green Bay or in San Francisco, after beating the Bears in the first round (again). But again, the list of teams who could win the whole thing starts here.

Studs

QB Aaron Rodgers: 23 of 36 for 291 yards and 3 touchdowns, 4 drops, 1 batted pass, 2 thrown away, 111.9 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 12 of 43 drop backs (3 sacks, 2 scrambles, 2 of 7, 1 throw away)

LG TJ Lang: Allowed 1 quarterback hurry on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 38 yards on 7 attempts

RG Josh Sitton: Did not allow a pressure on 45 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 27 yards on 4 attempts

WR Randall Cobb: Caught 6 passes for 115 yards on 8 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 6.8 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Sam Shields: Did not allow a catch on 4 attempts, 3 pass deflections, no tackles, 1 penalty

SS Morgan Burnett: Allowed 2 catches for 22 yards on 3 attempts, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 4 stops, 1 penalty

ROLB Clay Matthews: 2 sacks on 25 pass rush snaps, 1 batted pass, 4 solo tackles, 6 stops

RE Mike Neal: 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 17 pass rush snaps, 1 stop

Duds

RB Alex Green: Rushed for 35 yards (30 after contact) on 13 attempts, 2 broken tackles, caught 2 passes for 6 yards on 4 attempts

LT Marshall Newhouse: Allowed 2 sacks and 2 quarterback hurries on 45 pass block snaps, run blocked for 5 yards on 4 attempts

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears: Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 15 NFL Picks, Bears, Packers

Green Bay Packers (9-4) at Chicago Bears  (8-5)

I’ve called the Packers overrated before. This was because they were really banged up with injuries and as a result, they weren’t really playing as well as people thought they are. Injuries to Cedric Benson and now James Starks left the mediocre Alex Green as the feature back, running behind an offensive line that struggles both to run block and pass protect. Bryan Bulaga is out for the season and TJ Lang, who moved from guard to right tackle in his absence, has also missed time. Undrafted free agent Don Barclay, who has sucked in the last two weeks in his absence, might get this start.

On the defensive side of the ball, Clay Matthews has also missed time, leaving the Packers without their top pass rusher and leaving them with only one of the 4 starting linebackers they entered into Training Camp with. Nick Perry and Desmond Bishop are on IR, while DJ Smith, who replaced Bishop, is also on IR. Charles Woodson has also missed time.

The Packers were so good in 2010 despite injuries because they still had key defensive players healthy. Clay Matthews, Desmond Bishop, Cullen Jenkins, BJ Raji, Tramon Williams, Charles Woodson, and Nick Collins were all huge for them on the league’s 2nd ranked scoring defense. Matthews and Bishop are out for the year and Woodson has also missed time. Jenkins left as a free agent and Raji hasn’t been the same since 2010. Nick Collins had to retire because of injury, leaving Williams as the only one of those 7 healthy and playing near his 2010 level this year. They’ve added some nice young players in the meantime, like Casey Hayward, but it’s not enough for them to be considered as good currently as they once were.

Last year, they were so good despite a rough defense because they dominated the turnover battle and scored 35.0 points per game. This year, thanks to injuries and the pure unsustainability of that 35.0 points per game figure, they are averaging just 24.8 points per game. That’s good, but a far cry from last season. They didn’t come into this season with the goal of being the league’s #11 scoring offense. Meanwhile, their turnover differential is down from +24 to +7. All of this has combined to expose a vulnerable and now injury riddled defense.

Look at the Packers’ last 7 games and I’ll show you what I mean. Their only win by more than 10 in that stretch was before their bye and this is despite playing Arizona, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Minnesota, and the Lions twice. Meanwhile, the only real team they played during that stretch, the Giants, absolutely blew them out. Even more embarrassing, that blowout win for the Giants was sandwiched in between straight up losses as road dogs to the Bengals and Redskins.

The Packers rank just 12th in net points per drive at 0.17, as a result. The Bears, meanwhile, rank 9th at 0.40. If you take the difference between those two figures, multiply by 11 (the average amount of drives per game per team), and add 2.5 points for home field, you get that line should be Chicago -5. That holds up somewhat to DVOA, as the Bears rank 6th in DVOA and weighted DVOA, while the Packers rank 5th and 7th respectively. Nothing in there says the Bears should be 3 point home dogs.

We’re getting significant line value with the Bears, especially since this line has moved significantly in the past week. This line was Chicago -1 last week and now it’s at Green Bay -3. In spite of this, the public is all over the Packers and I love fading the public, especially on heavy public leans and especially on heavy public leans after big line movements. Chicago being home dogs has put them in a good spot trends wise. Teams are 105-62 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011. Going off that, home dogs are 55-32 ATS before being road favorites since 2002. The Bears go to Arizona next week.

The reason this line shifted 4 points in the past week is because the Bears lost in Minnesota. People assume that was because of the Bears’ injuries (more on those later) and that they can’t possibly compete with the Packers this week because of that. Well, I’m not so shocked the Bears lost in Minnesota. The Vikings are 6-1 there, including a win over the 49ers. Besides, the Bears’ defense wasn’t why they lost. Their defense really only gave up one good scoring drive. The other two touchdowns the Vikings scored were either on a pick six or directly off a long touchdown return. Their offense was why they lost, not their defense. Their offense has generally been solid this season, so I see that as a bit of a fluke.

All this being said, these two teams are going in a different direction injury wise. Clay Matthews is expected to return for the Packers, as is TJ Lang. Jordy Nelson and Charles Woodson are still out, so they’re not 100% yet, but I’ve said they could be very dangerous if they can be healthy and Matthews’ return is huge, even if he’ll be limited in his snap count. He’s really their only good pass rusher and I wouldn’t have given them much chance to take advantage of the Bears’ weak offensive line without him.

The Bears, meanwhile, are missing not just Brian Urlacher and Tim Jennings, but they will also be without Henry Melton in this one. They didn’t seem to miss Urlacher and Jennings against Minnesota, but the Packers are a much better offense and Melton’s absence will also be huge. It’s also worth noting that the Bears have had a lot of issues beating teams of the Packers’ caliber this year. They are 1-5 ATS as dogs or favorites of less than 4, including 1-5 SU. In other situations, they are 5-1-1 ATS and 7-0 SU.

At the end of the day, I think the Bears are the right side, but I’m not that confident in it. However, I love fading heavy public leans, especially after a big line shift for no real reason. Besides, every year, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. In order for that to happen, either the Seahawks or Bears have to win out and the Packers and 49ers have to lose once. This is the game the Packers are most likely to lose and like Seahawks/49ers next week, it will kill birds with one stone, if that is to happen once again. It’s happened every year in at least the last decade.

Public lean: Green Bay (80% range)

Chicago Bears 24 Green Bay Packers 23 Upset Pick +145

Pick against spread: Chicago +3 (-110) 2 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Green Bay Packers: Week 15 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 15 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Last week: 14 (+5)

Record: 9-4

Net points per drive: 0.17 (12th)

DVOA: 21.9% (5th)

Weighted DVOA: 16.2% (7th)

I’ve questioned if the Packers would make the playoffs in the past because they were so banged up and not playing well and because the NFC was so loaded. One team every year goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs. Well, they didn’t play well against the Lions either, struggling to beat a 4 win team at home, but with Tampa Bay losing to the Buccaneers and essentially falling out of the playoffs, the Packers are essentially locked into a playoff spot right now, meaning this year will be an exception (it also looks like the first year in 18 years that we won’t have 5 new playoff teams).

Though I’ve questioned them in the past, I’ve always maintained they’d be dangerous if they made the playoffs and got healthy before then and it looks like they will. I’m not disappointed or anything. After all, they were my Super Bowl pick before the season on a +600 money line. They can certainly do that, but it’ll all depend on matchups and seeding. They face Chicago, Tennessee, and Minnesota in their final 3 games and should go at least 2-1, meaning they’d finish with an 11-5 record, but that could put them anywhere from the 2nd to the 5th seed. This week’s game with the Bears could decide the division.

Studs

WR Randall Cobb: Caught 7 passes for 102 yards on 7 attempts on 26 pass snaps, 6.7 YAC per catch

CB Casey Hayward: Allowed 3 catches for 23 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 5 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 quarterback hurry on 5 blitzes

CB Sam Shields: Allowed 2 catches for 23 yards on 7 attempts, 1 interception, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles

CB Tramon Williams: Allowed 4 catches for 54 yards on 8 attempts, 3 pass deflections, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle

Duds

LT Marshall Newhouse: Allowed 6 quarterback hurries on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 2 yards on 3 attempts

RT Don Barclay: Allowed 5 quarterback hurries on 30 pass block snaps, run blocked for 9 yards on 1 attempt

WR James Jones: Caught 2 passes for 27 yards on 3 attempts on 29 pass snaps, 1.0 YAC per catch, 1 drop

CB Davon House: Allowed 4 catches for 54 yards and a touchdown on 4 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

ROLB Dezman Moses: 1 quarterback hit on 39 pass rush snaps, 1 assist, 2 penalties

LOLB Erik Walden: 1 quarterback hurry on 38 pass rush snaps, 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

RE BJ Raji: 1 quarterback hurry on 40 pass rush snaps, 2 penalties, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 3 stops

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers: Week 14 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 14 NFL Picks, Lions, Packers

Detroit Lions (4-8) at Green Bay Packers (8-4)

This is a really interesting game. Earlier this week, I wrote about some of the parity related things that happen every single year and how those could be used to help predict games the rest of the way. The Lions are by far the likeliest candidate to be this year’s team that goes from in the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. Only the Saints and Lions are 2011 playoff teams with 5 or wins right now and the Saints would have to lose out to finish 5-11, highly unlikely. The Lions, however, stand at 4-8 and will only be favored in one more game the rest of the way so chalk gets them to 5-11 and fulfills the requirement.

The Packers, meanwhile, are the most likely candidate to be this year’s team that goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs. Keep in mind, that’s happened every year in at least the same decade, while the trend mentioned in the first paragraph has happened in every season except one in at least the last decade. The Packers are the only team who had a first round bye last year with 4 or more losses currently. The Packers also need to miss the playoffs for this to be the 18th straight year with 5 new playoff teams because there’s essentially 7 returning playoff teams already locked into playoff spots.

They will need to go 2-2 or worse over their final 4 games to miss the playoffs and a team like Tampa Bay, Dallas, or Minnesota will need to win out. Tampa Bay looks by far the most likely to do so as that would require just winning in New Orleans, not as daunting as it once was, and winning in Atlanta week 17, when they will likely be resting starters. The Packers will be dogs in just one of their final 4 games, at Chicago next week, so they’ll have to lose once as favorites if they are going to miss the playoffs.

All that being said, we can’t really use much of that to predict any outcome here, based off just that. If Detroit wins here, it would go a long way towards knocking Green Bay out of the playoffs, but that would mean they’d also have to lose in Arizona next week if they’re going to finish with 5 wins or fewer, which I guess could happen if they’re flat off a huge win in essentially their Super Bowl, but the Cardinals really, really suck.

Technically, I guess we can say that if we throw out the assumption that a 2011 playoff team will win 5 or fewer games this season, Detroit seems like the logical choice. That would be only the 2nd time in over a decade that’s happened, but history says it’s more likely that something like that happens than all 4 teams who had first round byes last year returning to the playoffs this year.

Green Bay could also easily lose week 17 in Minnesota anyway, so they don’t necessarily have to lose here to fulfill that requirement. Besides, if they did, it would make it much more likely they’d pull an upset next week as Rodgers is deadly as dogs off a loss. Besides, Detroit is having major issues closing games, so I don’t know I trust them to win anyway, especially in Green Bay.

This team has lost a ridiculous 4 of their 8 losses by 4 or fewer points and they are 3-6 in games decided by a touchdown or less. That could even out in the long run, as it typically does. Teams that lose a game by a touchdown or less win the following game 48% of the time if it’s decided by a touchdown or less. A perfect example is that Matt Stafford and the Lions were actually 5-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less last year. I just don’t know if I trust them to straight up win here.

However, that doesn’t mean they can’t cover this 6.5 point spread though, in fact, it makes it more likely that they will. They haven’t really been blown out by anyone. None of their losses have come by more than 10 points and only 1 has come by more than 8 points. Because of this, their -15 points differential is much better than their 4-8 record. I don’t know if I trust them to win a huge game like this on the road, but they could definitely keep it close once again, much like they did the last time these two teams met.

Going off that points differential, the Lions actually rank 14th in net points per drive, actually only one spot lower than Green Bay. If we use net points per drive to compute real line, we get a line of Green Bay -3. Even though Green Bay ranks much better in DVOA (which is net points per drive based, but takes other things into account like strength of schedule) than net points per drive, ranking 5th, I still feel like this line is too high.

Green Bay is an overrated team right now. The odds makers know they can inflate the line on them based on reputation and people will still bet them. It should come as no surprise that the Packers are getting pounded by the public. I love to fade the public, especially on heavy public leans, when it feels appropriate and this is one of those weeks.

The Packers are really not healthy right now. If they can get healthy by the playoffs, I admit they’ll be a very scary team, but right now, they’re just not the team they once were. Injuries to Cedric Benson and now James Starks have left the mediocre Alex Green as the feature back, running behind an offensive line that struggles both to run block and pass protect. Bryan Bulaga is out for the season and TJ Lang, who moved from guard to right tackle in his absence, might miss this one too. Undrafted free agent Don Barclay, who sucked last week in his absence, might get this start.

On the defensive side of the ball, Clay Matthews is expected out once again, leaving the Packers without their top pass rusher and with only one of the 4 starting linebackers they entered into Training Camp with. Nick Perry and Desmond Bishop are on IR, while DJ Smith, who replaced Bishop, is also on IR. Matthews’ injury is the killer as they don’t have another pass rusher with him and Perry out. Charles Woodson could return this week, but if he does, he’s expected to be limited in his first game back after missing over a month.

The Packers were so good in 2010 despite injuries because they still had key defensive players healthy. Clay Matthews, Desmond Bishop, Cullen Jenkins, BJ Raji, Tramon Williams, Charles Woodson, and Nick Collins were all huge for them on the league’s 2nd ranked scoring defense. Matthews and Bishop are out and Woodson will again be limited at best. Jenkins left as a free agent and Raji hasn’t been the same since 2010. Nick Collins had to retire because of injury, leaving Williams as the only one of those 7 currently healthy and playing near his 2010 level. They’ve added some nice young players in the meantime, like Casey Hayward, but it’s not enough for them to be considered as good currently as they once were.

Last year, they were so good despite a rough defense because they dominated the turnover battle and scored 35.0 points per game. This year, thanks to injuries and the pure unsustainability of that 35.0 points per game figure, they are averaging just 24.7 points per game. That’s good, but a far cry from last season. They didn’t come into this season with the goal of being the league’s #12 scoring offense. Meanwhile, their turnover differential is down from +24 to +6. All of this has combined to expose a vulnerable and now injury riddled defense.

Look at the Packers’ last 6 games and I’ll show you what I mean. Their only win by more than 10 in that stretch was before their bye and this is despite playing Arizona, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Minnesota, and these Lions, who lost by just 4 a few weeks ago. Meanwhile, the only real team they played during that stretch, the Giants, absolutely blew them out. Even more embarrassing, that blowout win for the Giants was sandwiched in between straight up losses as road dogs to the Bengals and Redskins. That’s why I say the Packers are overrated right now and why I think they have a good chance to miss the playoffs. They can definitely win here, but it will probably be another close game.

The trends are not in Green Bay’s favor either. Detroit is also dogs before and after being favorites coming off a loss, a situation teams are 52-22 ATS in since 2008. Teams tend to be extra focused for a tough opponent coming off an upset loss, knowing that there’s an easy game on the horizon. Teams are 102-57 ATS as dogs before being favorites since 2011, including 114-57 ATS since 2008 when opponent will next be dogs. Detroit is dogs here and will be favorites in Arizona next week, while Green Bay is favorites and will next be dogs in Chicago.

Going off of that, road dogs are 14-7 ATS before being road favorites since 2011, 16-8 ATS since 2008 when opponent will next be dogs. Finally, teams are 15-47 ATS as divisional home favorite before being divisional road dogs, 4-26 ATS when their opponent will next be favorites. All of this is very, very hard to ignore. I won’t pick Detroit to pull the upset, but I’m very confident this will be a close game.

Public lean: Green Bay (70% range)

Sharps lean: DET 11 GB 7

Final thoughts: I’m taking the money line too. I don’t know exactly which team will win, but I love the value with the money line in a game I think will be a real tossup. All the trends say Detroit and who knows, maybe they’ll actually close out a close game this week. Even if they don’t, I love their chances of keeping it close.

Detroit Lions 30 Green Bay Packers 27 Upset Pick +250

Pick against spread: Detroit +6.5 (-110) 4 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Green Bay Packers: Week 14 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 14 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Last week: 13 (-4)

Record: 8-4

Net points per drive: 0.15 (13th)

DVOA: 23.7% (5th)

Weighted DVOA: 22.3% (5th)

Studs

QB Aaron Rodgers: 27 of 35 for 286 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception, 3 thrown away, 1 drop, 106.3 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 16 of 41 drop backs (2 sacks, 2 scrambles, 6 of 12, 3 thrown away, 1 drop)

RG Josh Sitton: Did not allow a pressure on 47 pass block snaps, run blocked for 19 yards on 5 attempts

SS Morgan Burnett: Allowed 4 catches for 57 yards on 7 attempts, 2 interceptions, 1 pass deflection, 6 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops, 2 missed tackles

CB Tramon Williams: Did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 1 stop

CB Casey Hayward: Did not allow a catch on 1 attempt, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles

RE Mike Neal: 1 quarterback hit and 2 quarterback hurries on 18 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

Duds

LT Marshall Newhouse: Allowed 1 quarterback hit and 5 quarterback hurries on 47 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 7 yards on 1 attempt

RT Don Barclay: Allowed 3 quarterback hurries on 27 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 10 yards on 2 attempts

SS Jerron McMillian: Allowed 2 catches for 11 yards on 2 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

ROLB Dezman Moses: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 penalty

LE BJ Raji: Did not record a pressure on 21 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers: Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 13 NFL Picks, Packers, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (6-5) at Green Bay Packers (7-4)

Aaron Rodgers is normally deadly off a loss, going 14-9 ATS in that situation in his career, including 10-4 ATS since 2009, which excludes 2008, his first year as a starter. However, as favorites of a touchdown or more, he’s just 4-3 ATS in that situation in his career. Besides, I still think the Packers are an overrated bunch. They’re not the same team as they were last year. The best they can hope to be is a team like in 2010, when they got hot at the right time, but they’re not the dominant regular season team they were last year, which is kind of what this spread suggests.

The biggest reason why is injuries. Already missing stud middle linebacker Desmond Bishop and replacement DJ Smith for the season, the Packers have also put starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga and starting rush linebacker Nick Perry on injured reserve recently. Greg Jennings returns for this one, but in limited fashion and he won’t fix their biggest flaws, which are the defense, offensive line, and running game. Defensively, key players Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews have already been ruled out for this one.

In a way, this injury situation is worse than it was in 2010. In 2010, the sheer volume of injuries they had was ridiculous, but they were able to keep key players like Jennings, Matthews, and Woodson healthy all year. They never lost a player as talented and important as anyone in that trio. Matthews’ injury has been the key one since that’s the most recent one. Without him and Perry, they’re getting no pressure on the quarterback and that should continue this week. Those are their starting rush linebackers and their defensive line is once again getting minimal pressure on the quarterback. They rank 29th in the league in pass rush efficiency (sacks + .75(hits) + .75(hurries)/pass rush snaps) and that includes games that Matthews and Perry played.

They were able to rank 2nd in opponent’s scoring in 2010 despite injuries because Matthews, Woodson, and Bishop stayed healthy and because BJ Raji, Cullen Jenkins, Nick Collins, and Tramon Williams all played at a Pro-Bowl level. Jenkins left as a free agent and wasn’t really replaced. Collins had to retire because of injuries. Raji is having a 2nd straight down year. Only Williams is playing close to the level he was playing at in 2010. They’ve added a couple nice young players to the mix like Casey Hayward, but this is nowhere near the defense it was in 2010 so the situations aren’t comparable. They’re not as good as they were in 2010 and they’re certainly not as good as they were last year in the regular season.

Last year, they didn’t exactly play great defense either, but they were able to make up for it with a combination of an incredible turnover differential and one of the best offensive outputs of all time. After going +24 in turnovers last year and forcing 38 takeaways, this year they are just +5 with 16 takeaways through 11 games. Aaron Rodgers, maybe not so unsurprisingly, has been unable to match his record levels of production from a year ago, thanks to injuries on offense and no running game.

After scoring 35.0 points per game last year, they are at just 24.8 per game this year, thanks to injuries to receivers, most notably Jennings, as well as struggles on the ground and on the offensive line, which have only gotten worse with Bulaga out. That might still seem like a lot of points, and it is, 13th in the NFL, but compared to last year and with the team still having issues defensively, it’s enough to knock them out of the ranks as an elite team. They’re not bad at all. I just think they’re overrated.

The numbers back me up. This team is just 15th in net points per drive, though they are 6th in DVOA and weighted DVOA and none of those numbers take into account that their injury situation has gotten worse. Minnesota, meanwhile, is 19th in net points per drive, 17th in DVOA and 18th in weighted DVOA. Using net points per drive to compute real line, this line should be Green Bay -5.5, instead of -7.5, which is a huge deal because -6 and -7 are both key numbers. The fact that Green Bay is better in DVOA than net points per drive nullifies some of that because DVOA is net points per drive based, but takes into account other things like strength of schedule, but it doesn’t take into account current injury situations, so I think we’re still getting line value with the Vikings.

Minnesota is missing Percy Harvin for this one, but Christian Ponder did have a good game against Detroit without him, before face planting against Chicago. He’s an inconsistent rookie quarterback who was heavily reliant on Harvin before he got hurt, so that makes sense, but Green Bay’s pass defense is closer to Detroit’s than Chicago’s, so Ponder might be able to have a bounce back game. The Vikings are also in a good spot as road dogs off a road loss. Since 2008, teams are 83-47 ATS in that spot. Meanwhile, divisional favorites of a more than a touchdown are 2-8 ATS this season. It’s not a huge play on the Vikings, but they should be able to keep this one within a touchdown.

Public lean: Green Bay (50% range)

Sharps lean: MIN 15 GB 3

Final update: That’s a pretty strong sharps lean on Minnesota. This was one of the games I was torn on going to 3 units on. I think I’ll up it to 3.

Green Bay Packers 27 Minnesota Vikings 23

Pick against spread: Minnesota +7.5 (-110) 3 units

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

Green Bay Packers: Week 13 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 13 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Last week: 13 (+4)

Record: 7-4

Net points per drive: 0.1 (15th)

DVOA: 23.7% (6th)

Weighted DVOA: 21.6% (6th)

Tier 3: Former Super Bowl champs who could be scary if they get hot

Studs

LE BJ Raji: 5 quarterback hurries on 30 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 stops

Duds

LT Marshall Newhouse: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 4 quarterback hurries on 36 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

RT TJ Lang: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 3 quarterback hurries on 36 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 23 yards on 6 attempts

LOLB Erik Walden: Did not record a pressure on 17 pass rush snaps, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]

[switch_ad_hub]