Packers

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants: Week 12 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 12 NFL Picks, Giants, Packers

Green Bay Packers (7-3) at New York Giants (6-4)

What’s wrong with the Giants? That’s what everyone is asking. Well, they do this every year. Since Tom Coughlin took over, the Giants are 53-19 in the first 8 games of a season and 27-39 in the last 8 games of the season, including these last 2 losses. Eli Manning has been the main problem of late and not just in the 2 losses. Dating back to their two close wins over Washington and Dallas, Manning is 80 of 139 for 869 yards, 1 touchdown, and 6 interceptions in his last 4 games.

Manning reportedly had a case of tired arm, which does explain why he’s struggled by his standards, but tired arm isn’t some rare thing. It’s something guys often have to deal with over the course of the season. The Giants have had a bye, but I can’t say for sure that Manning will completely turn things around and the same for the Giants as a whole, given the Giants’ history in the 2nd half in the Coughlin/Manning era.

I’ve mentioned the huge disparity in records, but Eli’s play generally drops off in the 2nd half. In the 1st half of the season, he completes 60.2% of his passes for an average of 7.4 YPA and 111 touchdowns to 61 interceptions. In the 2nd half, he completes 57.2% of his passes for an average of 6.7 YPA, 86 touchdowns, and 79 interceptions. I don’t think the bye is going to solve their problems. They especially struggle as home favorites after week 8, going 10-20 ATS since 2004.

The Packers, meanwhile, are incredibly banged up. They’re missing 3 of their starting linebackers, Nick Perry, Desmond Bishop, and Clay Matthews. Matthews is the most important injury because he’s their only consistent pass rusher. DJ Smith, who was filling in for Bishop in the middle, is also hurt. Stud starting safety Charles Woodson is also out, as is #1 receiver Greg Jennings and starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga.

In spite of all this, they are on a 5 game winning streak. I do think they’re a little overrated. They rank just 8th in rate of sustaining drives differential and 15th in yards per play differential, but the Giants are a little overrated too and the Packers thrive in this situation, as dogs. Aaron Rodgers is 11-5 ATS in his career getting points, which makes sense. Besides, they are dogs before being favorites as they host the Vikings next week. Teams are 96-53 ATS in this spot since 2011.

The line is exactly where it should be. The rate of sustaining drives differential method of computing line value says this line should be Giants -3.5, while the yards per play differential method says this line should be Giants -1.5, which averages out exactly where the line is, -2.5. However, the Packers have the momentum and the Giants don’t. They always struggle in the 2nd half of the season and I love getting Rodgers as a dog. It’s a significant play on the Packers. It would be 4 units if the public wasn’t pounding Green Bay as a public dog.

Public lean: Green Bay (70% range)

Sharps lean: GB 12 NYG 11

Final update: No change.

Green Bay Packers 31 New York Giants 24 Upset Pick +125

Pick against spread: Green Bay +2.5 (-110) 3 units

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Green Bay Packers: Week 12 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 12 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Record: 7-3

Last week: 13 (+0)

Of course, the one year I won’t shut up about things that happen every year is the one year they might not happen. Every year, one team goes from out of the playoffs to a first round bye. Well, the only team that is a candidate to do that is Chicago, who sits at 7-3, 2 games back of Atlanta, ½ game back of San Francisco, who has the tiebreaker, and tied with the Packers for even the divisional leader.

Every year, one team does the opposite and goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs. All 4 teams who had a 1st round bye are 7-3 or better, right now, including these Packers. Every year, one team goes from the playoffs to 5 wins or fewer. Of last year’s playoff teams, 9 already have 6 wins or fewer, 2 are at 5-5, and Detroit is at 4-6. The only thing that’s likely to happen is the opposite, one team who goes from 5 wins or fewer to the playoffs (Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, Minnesota).

Every year, there are 5 new playoff teams. Indianapolis and Chicago look likely to do so. Tampa Bay, Seattle, and Minnesota all both at 6-4 right now, but in order for them to both make the playoffs, they’d need either Green Bay or Chicago to miss the playoffs, but if Chicago misses than that’s counterproductive. For a 5th new playoff team to sneak in, Dallas will have to win the NFC East. Right now, the most improbable of the 5 teams out is Green Bay.

Basically for all of these scenarios to come true, Green Bay has to miss the playoffs. It’s certainly possible. They need to go at least 11-5 to assure themselves of the playoffs. They can go 10-6 and miss the playoffs. They do still have road games in New York (against the Giants), Chicago, and Minnesota, which won’t be easy. They also host Minnesota and Detroit (only home for Tennessee is really an easy game). However, they might be playing too well right now for their schedule to matter. I’m leaving them here for now, but we’ll see in a couple of weeks.

Studs

LT Marshall Newhouse: Did not allow a pressure on 35 pass block snaps, run blocked for 6 yards on 2 attempts

CB Casey Hayward: 4 solo tackles, 3 stops, 1 quarterback hurry on 2 blitzes, allowed 1 catch for 7 yards on 6 attempts, 1 interception, 3 pass deflections

CB Davon House: Allowed 1 catch for 8 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop, 1 sack on 1 blitz

MLB AJ Hawk: 9 solo tackles, 6 stops, allowed 4 catches for 10 yards on 5 attempts

SS Jerron McMillian: Allowed 1 catch for 24 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 2 quarterback hurries on 3 blitzes

LE Ryan Pickett: 3 quarterback hurries on 19 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 1 stop

RE BJ Raji: 5 quarterback hurries on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 assist

Duds

LG Evan Dietrich-Smith: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 2 quarterback hurries on 35 pass block snaps, 2 penalties, run blocked for 9 yards on 3 attempts

RG Josh Sitton: Allowed 1 sack and 3 quarterback hurries on 35 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

RT TJ Lang: Allowed 1 sack, 1 quarterback hit, and 1 quarterback hurry on 35 pass block snaps, 1 penalty, run blocked for 8 yards on 2 attempts

CB Tramon Williams: Allowed 3 catches for 88 yards on 5 attempts, 1 assist

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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions: Week 11 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 11 NFL Picks, Lions, Packers

Green Bay Packers (6-3) at Detroit Lions (4-5)

I don’t think it’s possible to talk about the Packers without first talking about how bad their injury situation has gotten. Already missing stud middle linebacker Desmond Bishop and replacement DJ Smith for the season, the Packers have also put starting right tackle Bryan Bulaga and starting rush linebacker Nick Perry on injured reserve. Jordy Nelson returns for this one, but Greg Jennings remains out. Defensively, key players Charles Woodson and Clay Matthews have already been ruled out for this one.

In a way, this injury situation is worse than it was in 2010. In 2010, the sheer volume of injuries they had was ridiculous, but they were able to keep key players like Jennings, Matthews, and Woodson healthy all year. They never lost a player as talented and important as anyone in that trio. Matthews’ injury will be the key one since that’s the most recent one. Without him and Perry, they don’t have much chance of getting any pressure on Matt Stafford this week. Those are their starting rush linebackers and their defensive line is once again getting minimal pressure on the quarterback. They already ranked 31st in the league in pass rush efficiency (sacks + .75(hits) + .75(hurries)/pass rush snaps), only ahead of the Saints, so losing Matthews, who is 4th at his position in pass rush efficiency, they’re in real trouble.

They were able to rank 2nd in opponent’s scoring in 2010 despite injuries because Matthews, Woodson, and Bishop stayed healthy and because BJ Raji, Cullen Jenkins, Nick Collins, and Tramon Williams all played at a Pro-Bowl level. Jenkins left as a free agent and wasn’t really replaced. Collins had to retire because of injuries. Raji is having a 2nd straight down year. Only Williams is playing close to the level he was playing at in 2010. They’ve added a couple nice young players to the mix like Casey Hayward, but this is nowhere near the defense it was in 2010 so the situations aren’t comparable. They’re not as good as they were in 2010 and they’re certainly not as good as they were last year in the regular season.

Last year, they didn’t exactly play great defense either, but they were able to make up for it with a combination of an incredible turnover differential and one of the best offensive outputs of all time. After going +24 in turnovers last year and forcing 38 takeaways, this year they are just +4 with 12 takeaways through 9 games. After scoring 35.0 points per game last year, they are at just 26.6 per game this year, thanks to injuries to receivers, most notably Jennings, as well as struggles on the ground and on the offensive line, which will only get worse with Bulaga out. That might still seem like a lot of points, and it is, but compared to last year and with the team still having issues defensively, it’s enough to knock them out of the ranks as an elite team. They’re not bad at all. I just think they’re overrated.

For instance, they are 3.5 point favorites here in Detroit. Normally teams dominate as road favorites out of a bye, going 43-15 ATS in this situation since 2002, including 21-3 ATS in the division. However, the Packers don’t deserve to be road favorites against a good Detroit team this week and as we saw with the Chargers in Cleveland a few weeks ago, if you don’t deserve to be road favorites, that trend doesn’t do you a ton of good.

The yards per play differential method of computing the real line gives us a real line of Detroit -4.5, while the rate of sustaining drives differential method of computing real line says this should be a pick em. Neither of them say that Green Bay deserves to be road favorites. In fact, if you average them out, they say that Detroit should at least be favored by a couple of points here at home.

Detroit is also in a nice spot. Divisional home dogs are 11-5 ATS off a loss as divisional road favorites since 2002, 49-35 ATS since 1989. Given how much the public is pounding Green Bay (the public always loses in the long run), I like Detroit for a couple of units. I am a little scared to go against Rodgers, who can always go into eff you mode like he did against Houston.

Public lean: Green Bay (90% range)

Sharps lean: GB 15 DET 11

Final update: No change.

Detroit Lions 31 Green Bay Packers 30 Upset Pick +165

Pick against spread: Detroit +3.5 (-110) 2 units

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Green Bay Packers: Week 10 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 10 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Last week: 13 (-5)

Record: 6-3

The Packers are 6-3 after a 2-3 start, but since their Houston blowout win, all 3 of their games have been very easy, against St. Louis, Jacksonville, and Arizona and I haven’t been impressed with their performance overall. Defensively, they’re about as banged up as you can get. Already missing Charles Woodson and Nick Perry for an extended period of time and middle linebackers DJ Smith and Desmond Bishop for the year, the Packers have now lost their one irreplaceable defensive player, Clay Matthews for an extended period of time. Meanwhile, Erik Walden, who has been playing well at linebacker in Perry’s absence, is also out.

Offensively, already missing top receiver Greg Jennings with other starting receiver Jordy Nelson banged up and starting running back Cedric Benson out for a while, they may now be without right tackle Bryan Bulaga for an extended period of time on an already struggling offensive line. The timing could not be worse because their post bye schedule is brutal with 5 divisional games against Minnesota, Detroit, and Chicago, as well as a trip to New York to play the Giants, making up 6 of their 7 games.

I think they lose to the Bears in Chicago, who might be the best team in football, essentially forcing them to compete with Detroit, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, Seattle among others for the 2 wild cards in a loaded NFC. I’m putting them right outside of the playoffs for now because the NFL is a parity league and I like to get 5 new playoff teams in my top-12 weekly (something that’s happened in each of the last 17 years). They’re also a candidate, obviously, to be this year’s team to goes from a first round bye to out of the playoffs.

Studs

RG Josh Sitton: Didn’t allow a pressure on 36 pass block snaps, run blocked for 26 yards on 6 attempts

FS MD Jennings: Allowed 1 catch for 9 yards on 5 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 1 solo tackle, 1 assist, 1 stop, 1 missed tackle

CB Tramon Williams: Allowed 2 catches for 13 yards on 5 attempts, 1 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 missed tackle

Duds

RB James Starks: Rushed for 61 yards (41 after contact) on 17 carries, 3 broken tackles, 1 fumble, allowed 2 quarterback hurries on 4 pass block snaps

TE Jermichael Finley: Caught 1 pass for 6 yards on 2 attempts on 21 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch, 1 penalty

CB Casey Hayward: Allowed 6 catches for 99 yards on 10 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 8 solo tackles, 1 missed tackle

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Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers: Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 9 NFL Picks, Cardinals, Packers

Arizona Cardinals (4-4) at Green Bay Packers (5-3)

This is what I said about the Cardinals after their 3-0 start. “Almost every year, there’s a team that gets off to a good start and then fades away and misses the playoffs and makes their believers look dumb (“This Ryan Fitzpatrick is the real deal.” “Rex Grossman is a legitimate franchise quarterback.”).Winning 3 in a row at any point in a season isn’t that impressive, but when teams do it to start the season, it’s much more noticeable and you get idiots like Michael Silver putting them first in his Power Rankings (Really? Kevin Kolb is going to win the Super Bowl?). This is essentially the same team that finished last year 8-8 and I expect them to finish somewhere around there this year. Bettors should ride the correction.” They haven’t covered since and have lost 4 straight.

Now with Kolb out, John Skelton is actually a downgrade, believe it or not, despite their records last season. Skelton was 6-2 in the 8 games he played the majority of the snaps, while Kolb was 2-6, but Skelton had the luxury of playing most of his games supported by better defensive play. In Skelton’s 8 games, the Cardinals allowed 19.0 points per game and in Kolb’s they allowed 24.5. Skelton was actually the inferior of the two quarterbacks last season. He led 100 drives last season and the Cardinals scored 16 touchdowns and 11 field goals (129 points, 1.29 points per drive) on those 100 drives. Kolb led 91 drives, leading to 20 touchdowns and 6 field goals (138 points, 1.52 points per drive).

Kolb also outplayed him statistically. He completed 146 of 253 (57.7%) for 1955 yards (7.7 YPA), 9 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions. Skelton completed just 151 for 275 (54.9%) for 1913 yards (7.0 YPA), 11 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. This year, Skelton is completing 57.9% of his passes for 5.9 YPA, 1 touchdown, and 4 interceptions, while Kolb is completing 59.6% of his passes for an average of 6.4 YPA, 8 touchdowns, 3 interceptions. Until Kolb returns, this team is really going to struggle. Meanwhile, the offensive line is one of the worst I’ve ever seen and it might be the worst ever. They’re on pace to allow 89 sacks, which would shatter the NFL record of 76 set by the Texans in 2002. They’re still a good team to bet against going forward. Teams are 13-20 ATS off of 5 straight ATS losses as 10+ dogs.

Now they’re in a bad spot coming off a 17+ point loss on Monday Night Football. Teams are 22-37 ATS off a Monday Night Football loss of 17 or more. 5 days is just not enough time to bounce back mentally from a devastating loss and it’s not enough time to fix the problems. Meanwhile, the Packers are touchdown plus home favorites before a bye. Teams are 35-12 ATS in this spot since 2002, winning, on average, by 16.4 points per game. Good teams tend to be extra focused heading into a bye.

We are getting line value with the Cardinals, however. The yards per play differential method gives us a real line of Green Bay -7 and the rate of sustaining drives method gives us a real line of Green Bay -6.5. And its not because the Cardinals grade out well in those two statistics, ranking 24th and 18th respectively. It’s the Packers. They’re not the same team they were last year. They don’t run the ball well at all. Their offensive line isn’t good. They miss Greg Jennings and several other injured contributors. And they don’t consistently win the turnover battle anymore. They rank just 11th and 10th in those statistics respectively.

However, I still like the Packers. The Cardinals are heading in the wrong direction and are starting a truly inferior backup quarterback, while the Packers have some momentum. That slowed last week against Jacksonville, but they are expected to get Jordy Nelson back, which will help. The Packers are still good enough for the touchdown plus favorites after a bye trend to be in play. I hate laying this many points, especially on a public lean, and not getting line value, but the Packers should be the right side.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Arizona covers)

Sharps lean: ARZ 9 GB 2

Final update: I’m dropping down to 1 unit for 3 reasons. The first one is that the Packers may hold Jordy Nelson out another week, with an easy opponent this week and a bye next week. The second one is that, while 7+ home favorites tend to cover at a high rate going into a bye, 10+ home favorites are just 11-7 ATS (home favorites of between 7 of 10 are 24-5 ATS before a bye). It seems good teams tend to cover going into a bye, so long as they don’t have to cover a massive spread. The third reason is that the sharps like Arizona. Green Bay should still be the right side, but I’m not really confident and I hate laying this many points.

Green Bay Packers 27 Arizona Cardinals 12

Pick against spread: Green Bay -11 (-110) 1 unit

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Green Bay Packers: Week 9 NFL Power Rankings (#9)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 9 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Last week: 13 (+4)

Record: 5-3

I wasn’t impressed with the Packers’ performance last week and they’re awfully banged up, but I’m moving them back into the playoffs for now. Every year, one team goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs. Right now, I have the Ravens as that team, but the Packers are still a candidate. However, they could easily be 7-1 and even at 5-3, they would still be in the playoffs if the season ended today. The NFC no longer seems as daunting overall after a 1-3 week against the AFC (the Packers’ unimpressive win over the Jaguars was the 1), after starting the year 19-9.

Green Bay Packers

Studs

C Jeff Saturday: Did not allow a pressure on 40 pass block snaps, run blocked for 30 yards on 10 attempts

CB Casey Hayward: Allowed 4 catches for 29 yards on 9 attempts, 7 solo tackles, 1 assist, 5 stops

CB Tramon Williams: Allowed 3 catches for 30 yards on 9 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 3 solo tackle, 1 stop

SS Morgan Burnett: Allowed 4 catches for 62 yards on 7 attempts, 1 pass deflection, 7 solo tackle, 1 assist, 6 stop, 1 sack and 1 quarterback hurry on 4 blitzes

Duds

RB Alex Green: Rushed for 54 yards (28 after contact) on 22 carries, 1 broken tackle, caught 4 passes for 28 yards on 6 attempts

FS Jerron McMillian: Allowed 5 catches for 80 yards on 6 attempts, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops, 1 missed tackle

LOLB Erik Walden: Did not record a pressure on 41 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, 1 solo tackle, 1 stop

NT BJ Raji: Did not record a pressure on 36 pass rush snaps, 2 solo tackles, 2 stops

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Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers: Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 8 NFL Picks, Jaguars, Packers

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) at Green Bay Packers (4-3)

So apparently Chad Henne is worse than Blaine Gabbert? I didn’t even know that was possible. Before he got hurt, Gabbert looked serviceable against Oakland’s terrible secondary last week, completing 8 of 12 for 110 yards and a touchdown. However, then Henne came in and went 9 of 20 for 71 yards as the Jaguars blew a lead in Oakland. Gabbert is back this week, so the Jaguars will probably only lose by 25 in Green Bay instead of 30.

The bad news for the Jaguars injury wise is that Maurice Jones-Drew is out at least this week and possibly many more as he’s being described as out indefinitely. He is their best player by far. Last year, he accounted for 47.7% of their yards from scrimmage, most of any non-quarterback since OJ Simpson in 1974. This year, he was at 39.9% heading into last week’s game. As good as Rashad Jennings looked in the preseason, he managed just 44 yards on 21 carries last week against an Oakland run defense that was allowing 4.4 YPC coming in, which would have been 23rd in the league this week. They now rank 8th because of Jennings’ terrible game.

This line is huge (biggest one all year), but we might actually be getting line value with the Packers. The yards per play method of calculating line value suggests this line should be Green Bay -15.5, while rate of sustaining drives differential suggests it should be -17. And Green Bay doesn’t even rank among the elite in the league in those stats, ranking 11th in yards per play differential and 9th in rate of sustaining drives differential. The Jaguars are just so horrible.

The Jaguars’ yards per play differential is -1.6. No one else is worse than -1.1. Their rate of sustaining drives differential is -16.8%. No one else is worse than -11.2%. Even against Oakland in their near win, they had half as many first downs as Oakland and managed a measly 3.4 yards per play to Oakland’s 4.7. With Maurice Jones-Drew out, they don’t stand much chance of keeping this one close unless Green Bay comes out asleep.

I hate laying more than a touchdown with a team and I certainly hate laying more than two touchdowns with a team, but Green Bay is the right side this week. This line is completely legitimate and Aaron Rodgers is playing out of his mind right now, completing 54 of 67 for 680 yards, 9 touchdowns, and no interceptions in his last 2 games. The Packers aren’t as good as they were last year because their offensive line and running game isn’t as good and their defense isn’t forcing as many turnovers. They’re also dealing with injuries as Greg Jennings is still out and Jordy Nelson may join him. Meanwhile, defensively, starters Nick Perry, Sam Shields, and Charles Woodson are out this week, though BJ Raji is expected to return.

In spite of that, it’s once again become reckless to bet against Aaron Rodgers. As a starter, Rodgers is 44-29 ATS, including 36-22 ATS since the start of the 2009 season. As home favorites of 10 or more, he’s 8-3 ATS. He’s playing angry right now and I don’t expect this team to be asleep. I instead expect them to come out firing on all cylinders and get a blowout win here at home over by far the league’s worst team missing its best player. Remember, at 4-3 in the loaded NFC, every game counts so they don’t have time to take a game off. Plus, the loaded NFC is 17-11 ATS against the AFC this year.

Plus, the favorite/dog disparity is eventually going to close. Dogs are 63-39 ATS this year and neither dogs nor favorites have finished more than 10 games above .500 over the course of a whole season in at least a decade. It’s not a big play on the Packers because I hate laying this many points, but I like them. On top of that, they’re also my survivor pick of the week because I’ve somehow managed to not use them at all this year. I’d be stunned if they lost. Only 4 teams have ever lost as 15 point favorites and none since 1995.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if Jacksonville covers)

Sharps lean: GB 10 JAX 5

Final update: No change.

Green Bay Packers 38 Jacksonville Jaguars 16 Survivor Pick (HOU, NE, NO, BAL, SF, ATL, CHI)

Pick against spread: Green Bay -15 (-110) 1 unit

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Green Bay Packers: Week 8 NFL Power Rankings (#13)

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Power Rankings, 2012 Week 8 NFL Power Rankings, Packers

Last week: 14 (+1)

Record: 4-3

The Packers have looked awfully impressive over the past 2 weeks and Aaron Rodgers is playing out of his mind, but they’re still the favorite to be this year’s team that goes from a 1st round bye to out of the playoffs, though New England and Baltimore made strong cases last week and you can’t count out San Francisco. However, I have a lot of trouble seeing that team coming from the AFC this year since it’s such a bad conference. In the NFC, you can miss the playoffs even if you deserve it and that might happen for the Packers.

At just 4-3, they’ll need to go 7-3 to make the playoffs at the very least, 8-2 to be safe. I don’t know if they’re quite that good. The defense isn’t great and is missing several players, including now Charles Woodson. They don’t win the turnover battle like they used to. They don’t run the ball well and their offensive line has been inconsistent. There’s still a lot to play out, but for now, I still have them in this spot.

Studs

QB Aaron Rodgers: 30 of 37 for 342 yards and 3 touchdowns, 1 spike, 1 drop, 118.0 adjusted QB rating, pressured on 9 of 40 drop backs (2 sacks, 1 scramble, 4 of 6, 1 drop)

RG Josh Sitton: Didn’t allow a pressure on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 19 yards on 1 attempt

C Jeff Saturday: Didn’t allow a pressure on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 13 attempt

RT Bryan Bulaga: Didn’t allow a pressure on 42 pass block snaps, run blocked for 11 yards on 3 attempt

WR Jordy Nelson: Caught 8 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown on 9 attempts on 40 pass snaps, 4.4 YAC per catch

WR Randall Cobb: Caught 8 passes for 89 yards on 8 attempts on 38 pass snaps, 3.0 YAC per catch

Duds

RB Alex Green: Rushed for 35 yards (30 after contact) on 20 carries, 3 broken tackles, caught 4 passes for 29 yards on 5 attempts, 1 drop

LT Marshall Newhouse: Allowed 1 sack, 2 quarterback hits, and 3 quarterback hurries on 42 pass block snaps, 1 penalty

RE Jerel Worthy: 1 quarterback hurry on 31 pass rush snaps, 1 penalty, no tackles

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Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams: Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2012 NFL Picks, 2012 Week 7 NFL Picks, Packers, Rams

Green Bay Packers (3-3) at St. Louis Rams (3-3)

It’s funny how much the general public likes to overreact to one game. Last week, everyone was talking about “what’s wrong with the Packers?” and now some people are calling them the best team in the NFL once again. On top of that, they are being very heavily bet as road dogs here. As you may know if you read these picks often, I love to fade the public.

My opinion is that they weren’t as bad as they looked after the loss to the Colts’ and they aren’t as good as they look now. They could easily be 5-1 if it hadn’t been for the touchception and ChuckStrong, but they’re also not as good as they were last year. The passing offense, overall, is not as good and they do seem to miss Greg Jennings, overall. Not last week, but overall. He won’t play in this one. They also don’t run the ball as well as they did last year nor do they pass protect as well. Meanwhile, they’re not dominating the turnover battle like they did last year, predictable if you know anything about turnover differentials.

They still rank just 11th in yards per play, while St. Louis ranks 15th. The yards per play method of computing the “real” line actually suggests this line should be St. Louis by 2.5. In terms of rate of sustaining drives differential, they rank 8th, while St. Louis ranks 21st, but it’s pretty crowded in the middle, as you would expect if you’ve been watching teams this season, and that method of computing the “real” line suggests this should be a pick em. Either way you’re getting line value with the Rams.

In order for this line to be valid, the Packers would have to rank 1st in yards per play differential and 3rd in rate of sustaining drives differential. They’re not the powerhouse they were last year and the Rams are hardly the pushover they were last year. Despite injuries in his receiving corps and on his offensive line, Sam Bradford played arguably the best game of his season last week in Miami against a tough defense. He’s really matured and is much better coached. He seems to have taken the leap to the type of quarterback who can succeed with a bunch of “next men up” in the lineup around him, something he couldn’t do last year. Defensively, they’re also much improved. At home, they should be able to keep it close with a Packers team that won’t be nearly as fired to play the Rams as they were to play the Texans last week.

Besides, home dogs are dominating this year, going 22-11 ATS. That speaks that the high level of parity that’s been present this season, something I alluded to earlier. In fact, teams are 19-14 straight up as home dogs this season. I don’t think the Rams will win straight up here, but stranger things have happened. They’ve already pulled 3 upsets as home dogs this season and they are 5-1 ATS overall. Dating back to 2010, home dogs of 6+ are 37-23 ATS. I like being able to fade a heavy public lean with an underrated team against an overrated team and take a home dog, especially a big home dog, at the same time. As long as this line is 6 (a key number in betting circles), it’s a 3 unit pick on a week that’s overall devoid of good plays.

Public lean: Green Bay (new thing I’m adding, siding with the odds makers on bets is not a bad thing to do since they make so much money, so I’m listing this here to allow readers to “fade” the public, if they so choose, in this example, the odds makers win if St. Louis covers)

Sharps lean: STL 21 GB 6

Final update: BJ Raji, Nick Perry, and Sam Shields have all been ruled out for Green Bay, which hurts their defense. Besides, the sharps love St. Louis even at the LV Hilton line of -5.5. I do too. This spread is at least 3 points too high. St. Louis is no pushover and Green Bay is banged up defensively, not the same offensively, and not winning the turnover battle like last year. This is a co-pick of the week for 4 units.

I also think there’s value with the money line at +200. This is what’s known as a teaser killer line. Since 2002, 6 point road favorites are 27-13 straight up. For reference, 5 point road favorites are 19-8 and 7 point road favorites are 37-10, both of which are higher winning percentages. The odds makers don’t mess around. They know if they have Green Bay -6, lots of people will put them in teasers at PK.

St. Louis Rams 24 Green Bay Packers 23 Upset Pick +200

Pick against spread: St. Louis +6 (-110) 4 units

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