Quarterback

The Patriots went 4-13 last season, tied for the second worst record in the league, but there were some reasons for optimism going into the off-season. While their offense struggled mightily, ranking 29th in DVOA, their defense was good, ranking 9th, and, as a result, many of their losses a year ago were close, with 8 of 13 decided by seven points or fewer. They also had the 3rd pick in this year’s draft, one of the best in terms of top quarterback talent in recent memory, they had among the most cap space in the league entering the off-season, and a they had significant amount of talent set to return from injury, after having the second most adjusted games lost to injury in the league a year ago.

However, things did not go nearly as well as they could have this off-season. They started the off-season by firing long-term head coach and GM Bill Belichick, who had increasingly had trouble winning in the post-Tom Brady era, going 29-38 in four seasons without the legendary quarterback, while not winning a single playoff game. Belichick deserves a lot of the blame for the Patriots’ inability to find the right quarterback or offensive coordinator to keep this offense at least competitive after the loss of Brady and, subsequently, after the loss of long-time offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Belichick also deserves a lot of the blame for some of the Patriots’ poor personnel decisions in recent years as the Patriots GM, particularly their drafts.

However, Belichick had proven to still be one of the best defensive minds in the game and it’s fair to wonder if the Patriots defense will be as good as it was a year ago without him. The Patriots did promote internally from that defense, making Jerod Mayo their new head coach, but Mayo is very young and inexperienced for a head coaching hire and never called plays or held the title defensive coordinator, so it’s fair to wonder if he can continue having the same success on that side of the ball without one of the greatest defensive coaches of all time leading the way, especially since defensive performance tends to be much more inconsistent on a year-to-year basis than offensive performance.

The Patriots also did very little in the way of adding new talent to this team this off-season, opting to use some of their cap space to lock in key members of last year’s team and saving the rest, so this roster still very much resembles the one built by Belichick as a GM. The Patriots still have about 46 million in cap space, most in the NFL, and have the 6th lowest average annual value in the league, a stat that heavily correlates with winning percentage. 

The Patriots should still be much healthier than a year ago and they did use their 3rd overall pick on a potential franchise quarterback Drake Maye, but Maye enters the league pretty raw and the Patriots haven’t really given him the talent around him that he needs to succeed. In fact, it’s very possible the Patriots sit Maye for at least a big chunk of his rookie season so he can sit and learn, rather than putting him in a tough situation and letting him potentially develop bad habits.

The Patriots brought back Jacoby Brissett, their former backup, to be the stopgap quarterback until they are ready to play Maye. in 48 career starts in 8 seasons in the league, Brissett hasn’t been bad, completing 61.3% of his passes for an average of 6.61 YPA, 51 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions (85.3 QB rating), and it wouldn’t be hard for either Brissett or Maye to be better than what the Patriots had at quarterback last year, when their ranked 30th in the league with a 73.8 QB rating, but Brissett isn’t the kind of quarterback who can elevate a poor supporting cast and it’s unlikely he finds much success this season. It’s ultimately very likely that the Patriots will have no choice but to throw Maye into the fire earlier than they’d like, with Brissett unlikely to win many games. Brissett is not a bad stopgap and Maye has a huge upside, but for 2024, this looks like a pretty weak quarterback situation, relative to the rest of the league.

Grade: B-

Receiving Corps

One group that should be healthier than a year ago in the Patriots’ receiving corps. This was already a weak group going into last season, but things went from bad to worse when they lost Kendrick Bourne, who had a 37/406/4 slash line and a 1.73 yards per route run average in 8 games, to a torn ACL. In Bourne’s absence, 6th round rookie DeMario Douglas took on a bigger role and did pretty well, posting a 39/418/0 slash line in a 9-game stretch and finishing the season with a 49/561/0 slash line and a 1.70 yards per route run average, but he also missed significant time with injuries. This season Bourne and Douglas both return, the former after re-signing on a 3-year, 19.5 million dollar deal this off-season, and both should play in three wide receiver sets with second round rookie Ja’Lynn Polk. 

The Patriots also used a 4th round pick on Javon Baker, signed veteran KJ Osborn in free agency, and have JuJu Smith-Schuster and TyQuan Thornton, who they have made big investments in recently, Smith-Schuster on a 3-year, 25.5 million dollar deal given last off-season and Thornton being added in the second round of the 2022 NFL Draft. However, I don’t have high expectations for any of those four players.

Osborn has been the #3 wide receiver with the Vikings for the past three seasons, but he’s been underwhelming, with a 1.11 yards per route run average, and he only signed for 1-year and 4 million this off-season. Baker is a rookie and not a highly drafted one. Thornton was highly drafted, but has shown next to nothing in two seasons in the league, averaging just 0.73 yards per route run and missing 12 games with injury. Smith-Schuster has a history of some success, exceeding 2 yards per route run in each of his first two seasons in the league, but he has an average of just 1.40 yards per route run in five seasons since and even that is inflated by a 1.77 yards per route run average he had in 2022 with Patrick Mahomes throwing him the football.

Even their top-3 of Bourne, Douglas, and Polk have their uncertainties. Obviously Polk is a rookie and could have some growing pains in year one, even if he enters the league with a lot of upside. Bourne is coming off of a major injury and, even if he bounces back to form, he’s still an underwhelming #1 option, with a 1.67 yards per route run average in the past four seasons combined. Douglas, meanwhile, was only a 6th round pick a year ago and, while he showed promise as a rookie, it was in a very limited sample size. This group has some options and should be better than a year ago, but they are pretty underwhelming overall.

With the issues they have at wide receiver, expect tight end Hunter Henry to be a big part of the offense again, after he finished third on the team in catches, second in receiving yards, and first in touchdowns last season. Still, that only translated to a 42/419/6 slash line, the worst receiving yardage total of his 8 seasons in the league, and a 1.13 yards per route run average, also a career worst. Quarterback play was part of the problem for Henry, as it was for all of these pass catcher, but he has a 1.27 yards per route run average over the past four seasons total and now heads into his age 30 season. 

The Patriots gave Henry a 3-year, 27 million dollar deal to stay as a free agent this off-season, making him the 14th highest paid tight end in the league in terms of average annual salary, but he could easily prove to not be worth that. Behind Henry, the Patriots signed another underwhelming veteran, Austin Hooper, on a 1-year, 3.125 million dollar deal. In total, Hooper has averaged 1.22 yards per route run over the past four seasons, including 0.87 yards per route run last season, and he now heads into his age 30 season. Neither Henry nor Hooper are particularly good blockers either. Overall, this is a very underwhelming receiving corps.

Grade: B-

Offensive Line

Aside from the receiving corps, the Patriots’ offensive line was their biggest need coming into the off-season. The Patriots did re-sign Mike Onwenu on a well-deserved 3-year, 57 million dollar deal, after the 2020 6th round pick received PFF grades of 84.3, 87.0, 79.3, and 71.5 in the four seasons of his rookie deal, with his career worst year in 2023 becoming a lot better once the Patriots moved him to right tackle in week 7 (79.3 PFF grade from then on). However, the Patriots didn’t do anything to improve this group this off-season and it’s hard to see how they’ll be better than a year ago, when they ranked 12th on PFF in run blocking grade and 29th in pass blocking grade.

Left tackle Trent Brown was injury prone last season, limited to 579 snaps in 11 games, but he played well when on the field with a 80.2 PFF grade and he signed elsewhere as a free agent this off-season. In his place, the Patriots signed veteran Chukwuma Okorafor and used a third round pick on Caeden Walllace. Okorafor was a starter for the Steelers for three and a half seasons starting in 2020 (55 starts), but he posted mediocre grades of 57.5, 63.6, 61.2, and 60.4 and was eventually benched mid-season during the 2023 season and then subsequently cut this off-season. Okorafor also has mostly played at the easier right tackle spot, with just two career starts at left tackle, coming back in his rookie season in 2018, so he could really struggle on the blindside for the Patriots. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all if he ended up getting benched mid-season for the second straight year in favor of the rookie Wallace, but Wallace probably wouldn’t fare much better.

On the interior of the offensive line, the Patriots have center David Andrews, who is probably their second best offensive lineman behind Onwenu, right guard Sidy Sow, a 2023 4th round pick who was decent with a 64.4 PFF grade in 13 starts after Onwenu moved to right tackle last season, and left guard Cole Strange, a 2022 1st round pick who has been a disappointment thus far and who is also coming off of a significant knee injury that has him questionable for the start of the 2024 season.

Andrews has made 117 starts in eight healthy seasons in the league, while finishing above 60 on PFF in all eight seasons, with six seasons above 70, including a 71.2 PFF grade in 17 starts in 2023, but he’s going into his age 32 season now and could start declining. He’s starting from a pretty high base point, so even if he declines he could remain at least a solid starter, but any decline from him would be a concern for an offensive line that is already in rough shape. Strange, meanwhile, struggled with a 54.6 PFF grade on 982 snaps as a rookie before improving slightly with a 64.6 PFF grade on 564 snaps last season before getting hurt. If he wasn’t coming off of an injury, I would like his chances of taking a step forward in year three, but the injury throws a lot of uncertainty to the mix, as he could miss time to begin the year and/or not be 100% when he returns.

If Strange misses time, the Patriots replacement options are pretty underwhelming. Jake Andrews and Atonio Mafi were 4th and 5th round picks in 2023, but Andrews played just 71 mediocre snaps as a rookie, while Mafi struggled mightily with a 32.3 PFF grade in 458 snaps. The Patriots also used a 4th round pick in this year’s draft on Layden Robinson to give themselves some additional depth on the interior, but he also could struggle if forced into significant action as a rookie. With Trent Brown gone and Cole Strange having injury uncertainty, this offensive line could be even worse than a year ago, when they were already an underwhelming group.

Grade: B-

Running Backs

Another key offensive playmaker the Patriots lost to injury last season was running back Rhomandre Stevenson, who missed the final five games. He only averaged 3.97 YPC on 156 carries, but that was largely because of the lack of talent around him on offense and he was significantly more efficient than the Patriots’ other running back Ezekiel Elliott, who averaged just 3.49 YPC, leading the team with 184 carries because he stayed healthy all season. A 4th round pick in 2021, Stevenson still has a career 4.54 YPC average on 499 carries in three seasons in the league, despite his underwhelming average last season, and he also contributes in the passing game with a 1.17 yards per route run average and 121 catches in 41 career games. Still only in his age 26 season, Stevenson should be at least a solid all-around back again in 2024.

The Patriots also signed Antonio Gibson to replace Ezekiel Elliott as the #2 back. He only has a career 4.12 YPC average on 642 carries, but has mostly played on mediocre offenses in Washington and he also contributes in the passing game with a career 1.30 yards per route run average and 172 catches in 61 career games, so he’s an above average #2 back. Stevenson, who was on pace for 284 touches last season before getting hurt, will remain the lead back, but Gibson should have a significant role behind him. Depth behind Stevenson and Gibson is a concern because their third back is Kevin Harris, a 2022 6th round pick with just 37 career touches, but the Patriots at least have a solid top-2 at this position.

Grade: B+

Edge Defenders

As I mentioned, the Patriots defense could have trouble repeating their solid play from a year ago without Bill Belichick at the helm, but there are some reasons for optimism with this group, as the Patriots also had significant injuries on this side of the ball and should be healthier in 2024. One of their biggest injury losses last season was top edge defender Matt Judon, who only played 184 snaps in 4 games due to injury and who had a 70.2 PFF grade with 4 sacks, 5 hits, and a 17.0% pressure rate. His absence was huge because the Patriots struggled to create pressure off the edge without him.

Anfernee Jennings led this group in snaps played with 677 and, while he was a strong run defender, he struggled mightily as a pass rusher with just 1.5 sacks, 2 hits, and a 7.6% pressure rate. Deatrich Wise (615 snaps) also struggled as a pass rusher with 4.5 sacks, 2 hits, and a 9.2% pressure rate and didn’t even play the run well either, leading to him finishing the year with a 54.3 grade overall on PFF. Keion White (522 snaps) was mostly just a run stopper as well, finishing the season with 1 sack, 4 hits, and a 6.6% pressure rate, while Josh Uche was an effective situational pass rusher, with 3 sacks, 6 hits, and a 16.3% pressure rate, but only saw 331 snaps on the season because the Patriots didn’t trust his run defense.

Judon returns in 2024 to a group that is otherwise the same. Prior his injury plagued 2023, Judon had 58.5 sacks, 92 hits, and a 13.4% pressure rate in 96 games over his previous six seasons, while only missing three games total, so the bounce back potential is high here, but it’s also worth noting that he’s going into his age 32 season and could decline in 2024. Even if he does, he should still be a welcome re-addition, but the Patriots might not be getting the best version of Judon at this point in his career. Wise also might have some bounce back potential, as he had 15 sacks, 29 hits, and a 11.2% pressure rate in 63 games in his previous four seasons prior to last season, but he’s going into his age 30 season, so his best days might be behind him. 

Jennings and White will likely remain in base package roles, with the former re-signing on a 3-year, 12 million dollar deal this off-season. Jennings was a 3rd round pick in 2020 and has just a 8.1% pressure rate for his career, but he’s also exceeded 70 in run defense grade on PFF in every season in the league except 2021, when he missed the whole season due to injury. White, meanwhile, was a second round pick in 2023 and could take a step forward in year two after posting a 64.2 overall grade as a rookie, but he’ll likely always remain a better run defender than pass rusher.

Uche also re-signed with the Patriots this off-season on an incentivized 1-year, 3 million dollar deal and will likely remain in a sub package role. A 2nd round pick in 2020, Uche has 18.5 sacks, 18 hits, and a 16.1% pressure rate in 51 career games, but he’s also never played more than 373 snaps in a season because of his struggles against the run. I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. This group should be better in 2024 because of the return of Matt Judon and they have some decent situational players at this position aside from Judon, but Judon and arguably their second best all-around edge defender Deatrich Wise are both on the wrong side of 30.

Grade: B+

Interior Defenders

With Judon missing most of last season, the Patriots were led in sacks by an interior defender, Christian Barmore, who had 8.5 sacks, 7 hits, and a 10.3% pressure rate. A 2nd round pick in 2021, Barmore has been a good pass rusher throughout his career, exceeding 70 in pass rush grade on PFF in all three seasons in the league, while totaling 12.5 sacks, 21 hits, and a 10.9% pressure rate in 44 games, but last season was the first season he didn’t struggle against the run, going from a 45.8 PFF run defense grade and a 46.9 PFF run defense grade in 2021 and 2022 respectively to a 67.8 PFF run defense grade last season. 

As a result of that, Barmore had his best overall PFF grade at 83.8, up significantly from 63.5 and 68.6 in his first two seasons in the league. It’s possible he regresses as a run defender in 2024, but it’s also possible he’s turned a corner in that aspect of his game and, even if he hasn’t, he should remain a high level pass rusher at the very least. Still only going into his age 25 season, the Patriots wisely locked Barmore up long-term on a 4-year, 83 million dollar deal that makes him the 11th highest paid interior defender in the league in terms of average annual salary, ahead of what would have been the final year of his rookie deal in 2024.

Davon Godchaux will remain the starter next to Barmore, but he’s not nearly as good of a player. Godchaux has never been much of a pass rusher, with a career 4.4% pressure rate in seven seasons in the league, but that fell to an all-time low of 2.1% in 2023 and he wasn’t that good as a run defender either, unlike earlier in his career. As a result, he fell to an overall grade of 50.2 on 685 snaps on PFF, his second straight overall grade under 60 after posting a 53.1 PFF grade on 659 snaps in 2022. Now heading into his age 30 season, I would expect Godchaux to continue struggling in 2024.

The Patriots parted ways with veteran Lawrence Guy this off-season, which isn’t really a loss because he had a 45.5 PFF grade on 522 snaps last season, but the Patriots still don’t really have good depth at this position. They signed Armon Watts in free agency and he’s at least a solid situational pass rusher, with a career 7.2% pressure rate, but he’s not much of a run defender and, as a result, has played just 466 snaps per season over the past four seasons. I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. 

Daniel Ekuale returns after missing all but three games (53 snaps) due to injury last season, but he’s not a great depth option either, only exceeding 60 on PFF in two of six seasons in the league, while never playing more than 362 snaps in a season. To mask their lack of depth on the interior, expect the Patriots to use Keion White and Deatrich Wise, their two biggest edge defenders at 6-5 290 and 6-5 280 respectively, on the interior more frequently, something they did somewhat regularly in 2023. Christian Barmore is one of the best interior defenders in the league, especially as a pass rusher, but this is a very top heavy position group. 

Grade: B

Linebackers

The biggest concern for this defense without Belichick is that the players who struggled elsewhere, but broke out with the Patriots will regress without Belichick’s guidance and scheme. A big example of that is top linebacker Jahlani Tavai. A 2nd round pick by the Lions in 2019, Tavai struggled in his first home, with PFF grades of 61.6 and 32.1 on snap counts of 597 and 624 respectively, before landing in New England, where he has posted PFF grades of 73.5 and 86.6 on snap counts of 570 and 838 over the past two seasons respectively. Going into his age 28 season, Tavai should theoretically be in his prime, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him regress in 2024 due to the coaching change, which would be a big blow to this defense, as he was arguably their best defensive player a year ago.

Jawhaun Bentley will remain the other every down linebacker next to Tavai. A 5th round pick in 2018, Bentley showed promise early in his career in limited action, before breaking out in a larger role over the past few seasons, with PFF grades of 68.2, 80.4, and 65.8 on snap counts of 693, 907, and 984 over the past three seasons respectively. Still only in his age 28 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2024. He might miss the leadership of his former head coach, but I wouldn’t consider him as strong a candidate to regress as Tavai. 

Mack Wilson excelled as the third linebacker with a 81.5 PFF grade on 305 snaps last season, but wasn’t brought back for 2024. In Wilson’s place, the Patriots signed Sione Takitaki, who should be a solid third linebacker, though not as good as Wilson was a year ago. A 3rd round pick in 2019, Takitaki has been a part-time player his whole career, maxing out at 563 snaps in a season, with an average of 377 snaps per season, but he’s always played pretty well, exceeding 60 on PFF in all five seasons in the league, maxing out with a 71.2 PFF grade on 435 snaps in 2020. 

In 2023, Takitaki played a career high in snaps and received a 68.6 PFF grade. He probably won’t play quite as much in New England unless there are injuries, but he should be a useful role player in base packages. This is a solid linebacking corps, but they might not get the high level play they got a year ago, with Mack Wilson gone and Bill Belichick no longer around to get the most out of Jahlani Tavai.

Grade: B+

Secondary

Along with Matt Judon, the other big injury loss on the Patriots’ defense last season was cornerback Christian Gonzalez. Gonzalez was only a rookie, but the first round pick entered the league with a ton of potential and had a 80.8 PFF grade across 209 snaps through four games before getting hurt. It’s a small sample size and I wouldn’t expect Gonzalez to keep that up over the course of a whole season, but he at least has the potential to and, even if he doesn’t, he should still be an above average starter.

Marcus Jones also missed most of last season with injury, limited to 44 snaps in two games, and he should be their primary slot cornerback in 2024 now that he’s healthy again. A 3rd round pick in 2022, Jones is still unproven, only playing 371 snaps as a rookie before barely playing last season, but he had a 67.6 grade as a rookie and a 64.2 grade last season, so he’s flashed at least some potential and is probably the Patriots best option on the slot.

Myles Bryant (852 snaps), JC Jackson (439 snaps), and Jack Jones (127 snaps) are all no longer with the team, but they mostly struggled last season, with PFF grades of 66.6, 35.4, and 46.6 respectively, so they won’t really be missed. They weren’t replaced, but the Patriots at least have Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones back healthy. Jonathan Jones (724 snaps) does return and he figures to remain a starter. He had a 76.5 PFF grade last season and has finished above 60 on PFF in his last five seasons, with three seasons over 70 and a career best 80.7 in 2020. Jones is now going into his age 31 season, so he could start declining soon, but even if he isn’t quite as good as he was a year ago, he should remain at least a solid starting outside cornerback opposite Gonzalez, with Jones likely on the slot.

Their other slot options are Shaun Wade and Alex Austin, who return after decent seasons in limited roles in 2023, with PFF grades of 66.3 and 61.8 on snap counts of 348 and 211 respectively. Wade was a 5th round pick in 2021 and only played 29 snaps in two seasons prior to last season, so he’s a very unproven option, but he at least has some upside. Austin is in a similar situation as an unproven former late round pick, going in the 7th round in 2023. They’re pretty underwhelming depth options and will almost definitely remain behind Marcus Jones on the depth chart as long as he stays healthy.

To mask their lack of depth at cornerback, the Patriots could use three safeties together in sub packages frequently. Jalen Mills, their 3rd safety a year ago, is no longer with the team after playing 459 snaps, but he had a 59.1 PFF grade and the Patriots have 2023 3rd round pick Marte Mapu waiting in the wings, so Mills won’t really be missed. Mapu had a 50.0 PFF grade on 204 snaps as a rookie, but he has the upside to take a step forward in year two. He’s a versatile player who can play on the slot and at linebacker if needed.

Jabrill Peppers and Kyle Dugger remain as the starters and both are also versatile. Dugger, a 2nd round pick in 2020, was re-signed to a 4-year, 58 million dollar deal this off-season after being transition tagged, making him the 7th highest paid safety in the league in terms of average annual value. Dugger isn’t quite worth that kind of money, but he’s a good, young player that the Patriots couldn’t afford to let leave, finishing above 60 on PFF in all four seasons in the league. Last season was actually the lowest PFF grade of his career, as he finished at 61.7, but he had a 78.4 PFF grade the year before and, only in his age 28 season, he has obvious bounce back potential in 2024.

Peppers, on the other hand, is coming off of a dominant season with a 87.3 PFF grade on 955 snaps, but, like Jahlani Tavai, he’s another player who could regress significantly without Belichick around. A first round pick in 2017, Peppers was underwhelming in his first two stops with the Browns and Giants, finishing in the 50s and 60s on PFF in all but one season, but he jumped to a 75.0 PFF grade in a part-time role (398) in his first season in New England in 2022 and then broke out even further as an every down player in 2023. 

Still only in his age 29 season, Peppers is theoretically still in his prime, but it’s fair to wonder if he’ll regress without the head coach who got the most out of him over the past two seasons. This secondary has a lot of upside if Christian Gonzalez can reach his potential and Jabrill Peppers can avoid regressing, but their depth is also suspect and if Gonzalez doesn’t reach his potential and Peppers regresses, they will lack any true impact players.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The big off-season move the Patriots made was firing long-time head coach and GM Bill Belichick. Belichick’s defensive leadership would be missed, but letting go of him gave the Patriots an opportunity to enter a new era and, armed with the 3rd overall pick and significant cap space, the Patriots had the ammunition to improve in a hurry. Instead, they saved most of their cap space and what money they did spend they mostly spent re-signing players that Belichick had brought in. 

The Patriots did use the 3rd overall pick on a potential franchise quarterback in Drake Maye, but he enters the league pretty raw and doesn’t have the talent he needs around him to have success right away. The Patriots should still be healthier than a year ago and it would be hard for their quarterback situation to be as bad as it was a year ago, which could turn some of their close losses from a year ago into close wins, but, on the other hand, their defense could regress without Belichick’s leadership and, overall, this team doesn’t look anywhere near talented enough to compete even for a playoff spot in the loaded AFC.

Update: Continuing with their rebuild, the Patriots traded Matt Judon to the Falcons for a draft pick. They’ll also be without Christian Barmore for the start of the season for medical reasons. Add in the fact that they have one of the toughest schedules in the league and it’s hard to see the Patriots winning more than a few games.

Prediction: 3-14, 4th in AFC East

Quarterback

During the 19 seasons Tom Brady spent as the starter in New England from 2001-2019, the Patriots had unparalleled success, winning 36 more regular season games, 15 more post-season games, and 4 more Super Bowls than any team during that stretch, winning the ultimate prize a whopping 6 times total. However, the Patriots’ drafts got increasingly worse during Brady’s final seasons in New England and, while they continued to have success in the win column, including a Super Bowl victory during the 2018 season, they did it with increasingly aging and expensive rosters and, with the Patriots’ possessing minimal financial flexibility after years of borrowing future cap space and an aging core, Brady decided during the 2020 off-season that he would have an easier time winning with the Buccaneers and left New England, famously winning his 7th Super Bowl in his first season in Tampa Bay.

In the Patriots’ first season without Brady, they seemed to embrace the full rebuild, opting to use the year to reset their cap for the future, leaving them with a roster that had the 3rd lowest total average annual salary in the league, a metric that correlates heavily with winning percentage. They gave a contract barely over the minimum to reclamation project Cam Newton as a replacement for Brady and hoped for the best out of an underwhelming roster, with an eye on having among the league’s most cap space the following off-season.

Cam Newton was underwhelming, rushing for 4.32 YPC and 12 touchdowns on 137 carries, but managing just a 82.9 QB rating as a passer. However, the Patriots did manage to win seven games, while ranking 22nd in overall DVOA and 23rd in offensive DVOA, which was probably the most they could have hoped for out of that roster, with long-time head coach Bill Belichick making the most he could out of the situation. For comparison, the only two teams with a lower total average annual salary that season than the Patriots finished with a combined record of 3-29. 

The following off-season, the Patriots spent heavily in free agency to rebuild the roster and used a first round pick on quarterback Mac Jones to replace Cam Newton. Their free agent class was a mixed bag, but Jones impressed in his rookie season, starting all 17 games and completing 67.6% of his passes for an average of 7.30 YPA, 22 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions (92.5 QB rating), while receiving a 78.9 grade from PFF and leading this offense to a 9th ranked finish in DVOA. The Patriots secured a wild card spot at 10-7 and their 3rd ranked point differential and 4th ranked overall DVOA suggested they were even better than that record in the regular season. However, they were embarrassed in the wild card round by their division rival Buffalo Bills, who have become the dominant team in this division since Brady’s departure during the 2020 season.

From there, things only got worse. The Patriots lost offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to the head coaching job in Las Vegas last off-season and, without any good in-house alternatives, after years of offensive assistant departures, and with Belichick unwilling to make an outside hire, the Patriots ended up with long-time defensive assistant Matt Patricia and long-time special teams coach Joe Judge running the show on offense. The Patriots finished the year with a top-4 defense in terms of DVOA for the second straight year, but their offense plummeted to 24th in DVOA, leading to the Patriots finishing 15th overall in DVOA and with just a 8-9 record, outside of the post-season. 

Mac Jones especially regressed significantly, dropping to 65.2% completion, 6.78 YPA, 14 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions, while totaling a 84.8 QB rating and a 67.5 PFF grade. He also missed time with injury early in the season and at one point seemed to fall behind 4th round rookie Bailey Zappe on the depth chart. Zappe impressed early on in Jones’ absence and finished with a 100.9 QB rating and a 67.1 PFF rating on 92 pass attempts, but he mostly faced a very weak schedule of defenses and the job eventually went back to Mac Jones for good after Zappe struggled mightily in a loss to the league worst Bears.

With the Patricia/Judge combination predictably failing, Bill Belichick’s ability to win post-Brady has come into question and Belichick has gone just 25-25 in the three seasons since Brady’s departure, with no playoff wins, but I think they’ve gotten more out of their roster than they should have in two in those three seasons, with last season being the exception. The bigger problem has been Belichick’s decision making in the front office, which has been a problem for this franchise since the final years of the Brady era. 

This off-season was another head scratching one from a personnel standpoint, with the Patriots opting not to make any splash signings, even at positions of need, despite having the financial flexibility to do so. Overall, the Patriots have the lowest average annual value of their roster this season and they are expected to have the most cap space in the league next off-season, suggesting the Patriots view this as another rebuilding year, or at least a transition year, where they don’t have realistic expectations of competing for a championship.

The Patriots did at least make one big addition this off-season, bringing back former offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien to give them an offensive coordinator that has the familiarity with this organization that Belichick likes, while also being a massive upgrade over Patricia and Judge. That alone should give them a boost on offense and, while it’s tough to play at a consistently high level on defense, the Patriots are coming off back-to-back top-4 finishes in defensive DVOA, they still have as good of a defensive coaching staff as any team in the league, led by Belichick himself, who remains a defensive mastermind, and they bring back 19 of their top-20 in terms of defensive snaps played from a year ago, so they have a good chance to remain one of the better defenses in the league, even if they aren’t quite as good as they have been in the past two seasons. 

Given their improved offense and their strong defense, it might seem like the Patriots, who were close to a wild card berth last season despite all of their offensive problems, will be able to qualify for the post-season this time around and they should at least have a shot, but their schedule, division, and conference are much tougher than a year ago and they still have concerns on offense around Mac Jones, even if he bounces back. Jones will probably have to have his best season yet in 2023 for the Patriots to legitimately contend in the AFC and it’s unclear how much upside the physically limited Jones has long-term. This isn’t a bad quarterback room, especially with Zappe at least looking like a solid backup long-term, but it might not be good enough for this team to legitimately compete in the loaded AFC, given the other questions around the quarterback position on this offense. 

Grade: B

Offensive Line

The biggest weakness on this offense is the offensive tackle position, which was a weakness last year, even with Trent Brown playing all 17 games and posting a 67.4 PFF grade, after missing 24 games over the previous three seasons combined. With Brown now going into his age 30 season, it seems unlikely he will stay that healthy two years in a row and he could decline even when on the field, after finishing in the 60s or 70s in terms of PFF grade in all 8 seasons in the league. 

Despite Trent Brown’s age, injury history, and their lack of other good options at the position, all the Patriots did to address this need this off-season was signing Riley Reiff, who is in his age 35 season, and Calvin Anderson, who has 12 starts in four seasons in the league, with a max of 7 starts in a season. With the Patriots unwilling to spend big on significant upgrades, Reiff and Anderson signed contracts worth 4 million over 1 year and 7 million over 2 years respectively. Along with the only other holdover from a year ago, Conor McDermott, Reiff and Anderson will compete for the starting right tackle job opposite Trent Brown and the two losers of that battle will compete for the swing tackle job, which could easily become a starting job, given Brown’s age and injury history. 

Reiff has finished 60 or higher on PFF in all 11 seasons in the league, with seven seasons over 70, but the 67.5 and 64.5 PFF grades he’s had the past two seasons are middling, he’s made just 22 starts over those two seasons because of injuries and underwhelming performance, and his age is a big concern, so he could easily regress further or get injured more this season. Still, I would consider him the favorite for the right tackle job, given the alternatives. Anderson has flashed potential over the past two seasons, with 72.5 and 65.0 grades on PFF, but he has just 10 starts across those two seasons and is a former undrafted free agent, so he’s a projection to a larger role and probably doesn’t have that much upside. 

Conor McDermott, meanwhile, has just 12 starts in 6 seasons in the league since going in the 6th round in 2017, he’s never been more than a middling player even in limited action, and he’s already in his age 31 season. The 2-year, 3.6 million dollar extension the Patriots kept McDermott on this off-season is even less than what they paid for Reiff and Anderson, so I would consider him the 4th tackle, with Anderson likely to be the first option off the bench if Reiff wins the right tackle job as he’s likely favored to. This is a pretty thin offensive tackle group, with a pair of shaky expected starters and inexperienced options without much upside behind them on the depth chart.

The Patriots did add on the interior of this offensive line this off-season using 4th round picks on Eastern Michigan guard Sidy Sow and Troy center Jake Andrews and a 5th round pick on UCLA guard Atonio Mafi, but none of them are expected to start in year one, barring injuries. Left guard Cole Strange was a first round pick in 2022 and, despite a mediocre rookie year with a 54.6 PFF grade in 17 starts, he figures to remain locked into a starting job because he has the upside to take a big step forward in year two, though that’s obviously not a guarantee.

Center David Andrews was significantly better with a 74.5 PFF grade in 14 starts, but he now heads into his age 31 season, which is why Jake Andrews was drafted as insurance and a potential long-term replacement. David Andrews has finished above 70 on PFF in all but one of his last six seasons as a starter and has 100 total starts in 8 seasons in the league, so he would be declining from a relatively impressive prime even if he did drop off, but there’s a good chance he’s not as good in 2023 as he was in 2022, even if he remains a solid starter.

Right guard Michael Onwenu will probably be their best offensive lineman and he has the versatility to kick out to right tackle if they need him to, with one of the rookies then likely stepping into his spot on the interior, but Onwenu made all 17 starts at right guard last season, finishing with a 79.3 PFF grade that ranked 4th among guards and the Patriots probably want to keep him there, even if he does have the versatility to move outside. 

Onwenu was only a 6th round pick in 2020 and entered his first two seasons in the league as a reserve, but because of injuries to starters, Onwenu made 24 starts total in those two seasons (8 at guard and 16 at tackle) and posted impressive 84.3 and 87.0 grades on PFF, so his 2022 season was not at all a surprise and, still only in his age 26 season, I would expect more of the same from him in 2023, regardless of where he plays. He elevates this offensive line significantly by himself and, overall, the Patriots are much better on the interior than at tackle, but their durability, age, and depth concerns at tackle are still a big problem.

Grade: B

Receiving Corps

The Patriots’ receiving corps is also a concern. They signed JuJu Smith-Schuster to a contract worth 25.5 million over 3 years, but that was at best a lateral move to replace Jakobi Myers, who had a 75.6 PFF grade, a 1.90 yards per route run average, and a 67/804/6 slash line in 2022, leading the team as a solid, but underwhelming #1 wide receiver. Smith-Schuster is similar, but probably a downgrade, averaging 2.12 yards per route run in his first two seasons in the league as the #2 wide receiver opposite Antonio Brown in Pittsburgh, but averaging just 1.45 yards per route run in four seasons since, as the de facto #1 wide receiver with the Steelers and then last season with the Chiefs. 

Smith-Schuster’s 1.77 yards per route run average in 2022 was his best since his second season in the league in 2018, but he also had the benefit of playing with Patrick Mahomes as his quarterback and still did worse from a yards per route run standpoint than Meyers, even with Meyers playing in a much worse passing game. Even if Mac Jones and this passing game are better in 2023 than they were a year ago, I would expect Smith-Schuster to be below his 2022 mark in yards per route run and possibly well below where Meyers was.

The Patriots should get more of out of Kendrick Bourne in 2023, who has 1.77 yards per route run in two seasons in New England, but played fewer snaps (441) than Nelson Agholor (474) or Tyquan Thornton (526) in 2022, even though they averaged just 1.23 and 0.76 yards per route run. Bourne should have played more and would have if not for what seemed like a personal beef between him and Matt Patricia. Now with Patricia gone I would expect Bourne to have a bigger role in this passing game in 2023, which should benefit this offense, given how efficient he’s been over the past two seasons.

Agholor is also gone, which is addition by subtraction, given how much he struggled last season, and the Patriots are hoping for more out of Tyquan Thornton, who also struggled mightily last season, but who was only a rookie and who could take a step forward in year two. The 2022 2nd round pick still has a lot of upside, despite his rookie season struggles, and will at least compete for a starting job with Kendrick Bourne and fellow veteran Devante Parker, with Smith-Schuster almost definitely locked into a starting role given the contract the Patriots gave him. 

Parker wasn’t bad last season with a 1.71 yards per route run average and the 8-year veteran has a 1.67 yards per route run average for his career, but he’s also missed at least 2 games in 6 of those 8 seasons, with 24 games missed total, and, in part due to that, he has only surpassed 800 receiving yards once in his career. Now in his age 30 season, his best days are almost definitely behind him and he could start to regress noticeably this season. He’s not a bad starting option, but he is unlikely to be much more than a middling starting option even when on the field.

The Patriots are also hoping to get more out of their tight ends this season to mask some of their issues at the wide receiver position. Two off-seasons ago, they spent big, giving contracts worth 37.5 million over 3 years and 50 million over 4 years respectively to Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith and Henry had a solid first season in New England with a 50/603/9 slash line and a 1.50 yards per route run average, but that fell to 41/509/2 and 1.21 yards per route run in 2022, while Smith was primarily utilized as a blocker and was never given a big passing game role, despite his salary and a decent 1.64 yards per route run average across the past two seasons.

Henry was retained this off-season and the Patriots are hoping for a bounce back for a player with a 1.55 yards per route run average for his career and who is still only in his age 29 season, but even if he does bounce back, he’s unlikely to be the high level tight end the Patriots are paying him to be. Smith, meanwhile, was traded to the Falcons in essentially a salary dump this off-season, which freed up space for the Patriots to replace him with former Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki, who they gave a 1-year, 4.5 million dollar deal to in free agency.

A 2nd round pick by the Dolphins in 2018, Gesicki had solid seasons in 2020 and 2021, with slash lines of 53/703/6 and 73/780/2 respectively and a combined 1.52 yards per route run average between the two seasons, leading to the Dolphins franchise tagging him for the 2022 season at 10.931 million, but new Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel deemphasized the tight end position in the passing game and Gesicki was limited to a 32/362/5 slash line and a 1.02 yards per route run average last season as a result. Gesicki is still only in his age 28 season and has the potential to bounce back in a more tight end centric offense in New England, so the Patriots were smart to buy low on him, getting him for less than half what he made last season on the franchise tag. Like the rest of this receiving corps, Gesicki is not a #1 option, but the Patriots at least have some decent options in the passing game.

Grade: B

Running Backs

Top running back Rhomandre Stevenson was actually second on this team in targets with 88 last season, only behind Jakobi Meyers’ 96 targets, but Stevenson was pretty inefficient, averaging just 4.78 yards per target, and that target total figures to drop significantly with a better offensive scheme and receiving corps that should be deeper than a year ago. Stevenson will still retain a passing game role though, after averaging 1.54 yards per route run as the #2 back as a 4th round rookie in 2021 and 1.24 yards per route run last season.

Stevenson also could easily have more carries than a year ago, when #2 back and former starter Damien Harris took 106 carries, which he turned into a 4.36 YPC average and 3 touchdowns. Stevenson, meanwhile, turned his 210 carries into 4.95 YPC and 5 touchdowns, after a 4.56 YPC average and 5 touchdowns on 133 carries as a rookie. Including what he does in the passing game, Stevenson has finished with PFF grades of 79.2 and 81.3 respectively across his first two seasons in the league.

Harris wasn’t really replaced this off-season, with 2022 4th round pick Pierre Strong (51 rookie year snaps) likely to take over as the #2 back and being unlikely to have the same workload as Harris did a year ago, so the opportunity is there for Stevenson to be a true feature back on the ground, in addition to his passing game work. He might not be quite as efficient as he’s been the past two seasons, but he figures to be among the better running backs in the league this season.

Strong isn’t a bad backup either, even if he probably won’t have that big of a role unless Stevenson gets hurt. Strong only had 10 carries as a rookie, but he did have an impressive 10.0 YPC average, buoyed by a 44-yard carry, and he was an effective pass catcher in college, with 42 catches in his final two collegiate seasons, before impressing with a 1.91 yards per route run average in a very limited passing game role as a rookie (7 targets). 

The Patriots also have 2022 6th round pick Kevin Harris, who only played 53 snaps as a rookie and, unlike Pierre Strong, did not impress in his limited action, but he could contribute more in year two and isn’t a bad #3 back. This backfield will go as Rhomandre Stevenson goes, but Stevenson has the potential to be among the best all-around running backs in the league this season and their backup options aren’t bad, with Pierre Strong in particular having significant potential.

Grade: A-

Interior Defenders

As I mentioned, the Patriots have had a top-4 defense in terms of DVOA in back-to-back seasons and, while it is tougher to be consistently great on defense than it is to be consistent great on offense, with defensive performance being significantly less predictive than the offensive side of the ball, the Patriots return all but one key contributor from a year ago and still have one of the best defensive coaching staffs in the league, led by head coach Bill Belichick, who remains one of the best defensive minds in the game. The Patriots probably won’t be as healthy on defense as a year ago, when they finished with the 4th fewest adjusted games lost to injury on defense in the league, but this defense is good enough that they can sustain more injuries than a year ago and remain one of the better units in the league, even if they don’t end up being quite as good as a year ago.

One player who should actually be healthier this season is top interior defender Christian Barmore, who was limited to just 327 snaps in 10 games by injury. Barmore still played pretty well when on the field, struggling as a run defender, but excelling as a pass rusher, totaling 2.5 sacks, 6 hits, and a 10.0% pressure rate, carrying over his play from his rookie season, when he also struggled against the run, but totaled 1.5 sacks, 8 hits, and a 12.1% pressure rate, while playing 598 snaps in 17 games in a healthier season than 2022. Barmore is still only in his age 24 season and the 2021 2nd round pick has the upside to make 2023 his best season yet if he can avoid further injury. Even if he doesn’t take a step forward in year three, the Patriots should benefit just from having him more available than a year ago.

With Barmore not healthy for much of the season, the Patriots were led in snaps played at the interior defender position by Davon Godchaux (659 snaps), Lawrence Guy (504 snaps), and Daniel Ekuale (362 snaps), all of whom were pretty mediocre. Godchaux is usually a solid run defender, but he also has a career 4.9% pressure rate, while finishing below 60 on PFF in pass rush grade in all six seasons in the league, and last season he even struggled against the run, leading to him finishing with an overall 53.1 PFF grade. Still relatively young in his age 29 season, he should have some bounce back potential and has a good chance to at least be a solid base package player, but he will remain a liability in sub packages, on the rare occasions he plays in obvious passing situations. 

Lawrence Guy was a solid, well-rounded player in his prime, surpassing 60 on PFF in seven straight seasons from 2015-2021, on an average of 518 snaps per season, with three seasons over 70, but he fell to 53.5 on 504 snaps in 2022 and now heads into his age 34 season, so his best days are almost definitely behind him. He will likely retain a rotational role in 2023, but will probably continue struggling. Ekuale was probably the best of the bunch in 2022, with a decent 60.1 PFF grade, but that came on just 362 snaps and the 2018 undrafted free agent had never surpassed a 60 PFF grade for a season or 290 snaps in a season prior to last season, so he’s an underwhelming option that shouldn’t be anything more than a deep reserve. Christian Barmore is an impressive interior pass rusher and Godchaux has bounce back potential against the run, but this is a pretty underwhelming group overall.

Grade: B-

Edge Defenders

The Patriots may only have one interior defender who is a good pass rusher, but they make up for that with their depth on the edge and frequently play three edge defenders at once in sub packages, with one lining up on the interior. Matt Judon and Deatrich Wise were their starters at the edge defender position last season and both were every down players, seeing 858 snaps and 828 snaps respectively, while sub package pass rush specialist Josh Uche played 373 snaps with 87.4% of those snaps coming on pass plays. All three of those players remain on this team for 2023.

Wise is usually the one lining up on the interior in sub packages when Uche comes in, but despite frequently playing on the interior, where it’s tougher to get pressure on the quarterback, Wise still finished last season with 7.5 sacks, 5 hits, and a 11.1% pressure rate, while also holding up against the run and finishing the season with a 74.9 PFF grade overall. Last year was by far a career high in snaps played for Wise, who had never exceeded 565 snaps in his career prior to last season, but it wasn’t his first solid season, as he had PFF grades of 68.8, 70.6, and 64.8 in the three seasons prior to last, while totaling 7.5 sacks, 23 hits, and a 11.3% pressure rate, and he probably won’t have to play as many snaps this season, with the Patriots using a 2nd round pick on a similar hybrid defensive lineman, Georgia Tech’s Keion White, who has a high upside and figures to see a role as a rookie.

Judon was their best free agent signing during their big spending spree two off-seasons ago, signing on a 4-year, 54.5 million dollar deal that he has been well worth. His run defense has been inconsistent, but he more than makes up for that with his pass rush, with 28 sacks, 29 hits, and a 14.7% pressure rate in 34 games in two seasons in New England. Prior to joining the Patriots, Judon also had 22.5 sacks, 54 hits, and a 13.1% pressure rate in 46 games in his final three seasons in Baltimore, so he has been a consistently high level pass rusher for several years. He’s now heading into his age 31 season, so he could start to decline, but he should remain at least an above average edge rusher, barring an unexpected massive dropoff.

Uche was actually the most efficient pass rusher of the bunch last season, totaling 11.5 sacks and 3 hits, despite his limited playing time, with a ridiculous 19.7% pressure rate. Uche was a 2nd round pick in 2020 and showed a lot of potential in limited action in his first two seasons, playing 414 snaps in 21 games (82.1% on pass plays) and totaling 4 sacks, 9 hits, and a 12.0% pressure rate, so his 2022 season didn’t come out of nowhere, even if it was by far the best season of his career. Uche might not be quite as efficient in 2023 as he was a year ago, but he could easily remain a very effective player in sub packages, still only his age 25 season. With promising rookie Keion White being added to an already deep group, this is one of the best edge defender groups in the NFL.

Grade: A

Linebackers

Things aren’t changing much for the Patriots in the linebacking corps this season, with Jawhaun Bentley (907 snaps) and Jahlani Tavai (570 snaps) remaining their top-2 linebackers, although both are coming off of career best seasons that they might struggle to repeat. Bentley has always shown potential, since being drafted in the 5th round in 2018, surpassing 65 in PFF in four of five seasons in the league, but 2022 was a career high for him in terms of snaps played (his previous high was 693) and he also posted a 80.4 PFF grade that ranked 9th among eligible off ball linebackers, the highest ranked finish of his career. 

Bentley is only in his age 27 season and should remain at least an above average every down linebacker, but he might not be able to repeat the best year of his career for the second straight year. Tavai, meanwhile, was a second round pick in 2019 by the Detroit Lions and was decent with a 59.7 PFF grade on 616 rookie year snaps, but that plummeted to a 32.1 PFF grade on 624 snaps in year two and then he was cut by the Lions and barely played in year three in his first season in New England, limited to 57 snaps total, before breaking out with a surprising 73.5 grade in a part-time role in 2023.

Tavai won’t have to play more than a part-time role in 2023, barring an injury to Bentley, as the Patriots frequently use a safety as a second linebacker in sub packages, which I will get more into later, but even in a primarily base package role, Tavai could struggle to repeat the best year of his career. I would expect him to remain at least a capable base package player, but I would guess the combination of him and Jawhaun Bentley will take a step back overall this season.

Another thing that will be different in this linebacking corps this season is reserve Raekwon McMillan (250 snaps) being lost to a season ending injury in the off-season. That isn’t a big loss, considering McMillan’s limited playing time and that he had just a 42.7 PFF grade, but the Patriots are hurting for depth at this position, with their top reserve likely to be Mack Wilson, who also struggled in limited action last season, with a 47.1 PFF grade on 234 snaps. 

Wilson was a 5th round pick in 2019 and is only in his age 25 season, so it’s possible he has some untapped upside, but he’s also finished below 60 on PFF in three of four seasons in the league, despite mostly being a reserve (an average of 435 snaps played per season in his career) so he would likely struggle if forced into significant action by an injury ahead of him on the depth chart and he’s a pretty underwhelming depth option. The Patriots also used a 3rd round pick on Sacramento State linebacker Marte Mapu, who will also provide depth, but who also would likely struggle in a big role, at least as a rookie, given how raw of a prospect he is. This is still a solid linebacking corps, but Bentley and Tavai are unlikely to both be as good as they were a year ago and depth is a concern if either of those two get injured.

Grade: B+

Secondary

The one key defensive player the Patriots lost this off-season was safety Devin McCourty, who retired ahead of what would have been his age 36 season. That’s not a small loss though, as McCourty still had a 70.0 PFF grade and led all Patriots defensive backs with 1,097 snaps played in his final season in the league in 2022. McCourty’s absence is especially concerning, given how important the safety position is in this offense, with a third safety frequently lining up as a linebacker in sub packages. 

To replace McCourty, the Patriots will have a pair of hybrid defensive backs, Jalen Mills and Myles Bryant, see more action at safety, after mostly playing cornerback last season, and they added Oregon cornerback Christian Gonzalez in the first round of the draft to replace the vacated snaps at cornerback. Mills and Bryant are mediocre options though, so, in McCourty’s absence, the Patriots’ top safeties will be Kyle Dugger and Adrian Phillips, who received PFF grades of 78.4 and 72.7 respectively on 752 snaps and 702 snaps respectively last season, and they are likely to give more action to Jabrill Peppers, who only saw 398 snaps last season, but recorded a 75.0 PFF grade. 

Dugger has the most upside of the bunch and is the leading candidate to replace McCourty long-term, as the 2020 2nd round pick has seen his PFF grade increase from 64.1 to 71.8 to 78.4 in three seasons in the league, but he has yet to play an every down role, he has missed two games with injury in each of his three seasons in the league and, as a result, the 752 snaps he played last season are a career high. Still only in his age 27 season, the upside is there for Dugger to be an above average every down player and he could have his best year yet in 2023, but he’s a slight projection to a larger role.

Adrian Phillips has also never been a true every down player, maxing out at 883 snaps played in a season in 2021, which was the only time he had exceeded 750 snaps in a season in nine seasons in the league, but he has finished above 60 on PFF in six straight seasons and he has been especially good in the past four seasons, with PFF grades of 87.6, 66.2, 80.5, and 72.7 in those seasons respectively. Phillips is now in his age 31 season and could start to decline, but he figures to see close to an every down role and has a good chance to remain an above average option, barring a massive decline.

Jabrill Peppers, meanwhile, is a 2017 first round pick who played an average of 797 snaps per season in his first four seasons in the league, before an injury plagued 2021 season (11 games missed) and a 2022 season in which he was mostly a reserve. He’s exceeded 60 on PFF in five of six seasons in the league, with a pair of seasons over 70, so he should be a solid option in what should be an expanded role for him in 2023. Like Dugger and Phillips, Peppers is a versatile player who can play linebacker in sub packages. All three of them figure to have significant roles and line up in multiple different spots this season.

Mills and Bryant, as I mentioned, are much more underwhelming options. Bryant went undrafted in 2020 and has been middling at best on snap counts of 156, 405, and 689 in three seasons in the league as a hybrid safety/cornerback, with a mediocre 58.4 PFF grade in the most action of his career in 2022, when he was mostly a cornerback. Mills, meanwhile, is a 7-year veteran who has finished below 60 on PFF in four of those seven seasons, including a 44.6 PFF grade on 468 snaps in 2022. Mills has been better at safety than at cornerback in his career, but he’s still a mediocre safety option. Neither he nor Bryant should see more than a deep reserve role, but it’s possible one or both see at least somewhat significant action, especially if injuries strike ahead of them on the depth chart.

At cornerback, the rookie Gonzalez figures to start right away opposite veteran Jonathan Jones, who is their de facto #1 cornerback. Jones has exceeded 60 on PFF in five of the past six seasons, with the exception being an injury plagued 2021 season, and he finished last season with a 68.1 PFF grade on a career high 914 snaps, after mostly being a slot specialist earlier in his career. Now in his age 30 season, Jones probably is what he is at this stage of his career, a solid, but unspectacular starter, and he could start to decline, but most likely he’ll remain at least a capable starting option.

Along with adding Gonzalez in the first round of this year’s draft, the Patriots also used 3rd and 4th round picks on Marcus Jones and Jack Jones in the 2022 NFL Draft and both showed significant potential as rookies. Marcus Jones is only a slot specialist at 5-8 188, but he posted a 67.6 PFF grade on 371 rookie year snaps, while Jack Jones was even better with a 74.7 PFF grade on 434 rookie year snaps, and he has the ability to play outside if needed. However, off-the-field problems and issues with the coaching staff cloud Jack Jones’ long-term projection and, while he might not be suspended at all this season, I would expect him to open the season outside of the starting lineup, as the 4th cornerback at best. He’s good insurance to have though, in a secondary that doesn’t have a lot of top level talent, but that is pretty deep and overall above average.

Grade: B+

Conclusion

The Patriots offense should be better by default this season, with Bill O’Brien coming in to give them a massive upgrade at offensive coordinator, and, with minimal changes on defense, that side of the ball should remain an above average unit, even if it would be hard for them to be as healthy and as good as they were last year again this year. Unfortunately, the Patriots’ conference has gotten so much tougher this off-season and numerous other AFC teams look noticeably better than them on paper, as the Patriots still have several significant concerns on offense. Add in that the Patriots play in the toughest division in football and will have one of the toughest schedules and it will be an uphill climb for the Patriots to even sneak into a wild card, despite a pretty solid roster. I will have a final prediction at the end of the off-season when all previews are completed.

Prediction: 7-10, 4th in AFC East