Raiders

Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders: 2016 Week 16 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 16 NFL Picks, Colts, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

Indianapolis Colts (7-7) at Oakland Raiders (11-3)

The Raiders are 11-3, but are not nearly as good as their record suggests, as their record is largely the result of a 5-0 record in games decided by a field goal or less and a league best +15 turnover margin. Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, as there’s no week-to-week correlation in turnover margin. Outside of those 15 plays, the Raiders have been a pretty average team this year and they are legitimately a few snaps away from being 8-6, 7-7, or even 6-8. In terms of first down rate differential, they rank just 21st in the league.

The Colts, meanwhile, rank 18th in first down rate, so we’re getting some line value with them as 4 point underdogs, even if it’s not a lot. The Colts are also in a much better spot than Oakland, closing out the season with an easy home game against the Jaguars, while the Raiders finish with a tough divisional matchup in Denver, where they are expected to be underdogs. Favorites are 61-97 ATS since 2012 before being underdogs when their opponent will next be favorites. The Raiders could definitely look past the Colts a little bit, while Indianapolis should be completely focused with no distractions on the horizon. I wish we were getting more than 4 points, but there’s enough here to put money on the Colts. If Oakland wins, it’ll probably be another close one.

Oakland Raiders 24 Indianapolis Colts 23

Pick against the spread: Indianapolis +4

Confidence: Medium

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Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: 2016 Week 15 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 15 NFL Picks, Chargers, NFL Picks, Raiders

Oakland Raiders (10-3) at San Diego Chargers (5-8)

The Raiders are 10-3, but are not nearly as good as their record suggests, as their record is largely the result of a 7-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less and a league best +15 turnover margin. Turnover margins tend to be very inconsistent on a week-to-week basis, as there’s no week-to-week correlation in turnover margin. Outside of those 15 plays, the Raiders have been a pretty average team this year and they are legitimately a few snaps away from being 7-6 or 6-7. In terms of first down rate differential, they rank just 21st in the league.

This game figures to be a lot tougher for the Raiders than people expect, as not only are the Raiders overrated, but the Chargers are underrated and in a great spot. Despite a 5-8 record, the Chargers have a positive point differential at +3, not far behind the Raiders at +38. That’s despite the fact that the Chargers are -5 in turnover margin on the season. They have 18 more first downs and 2 more offensive touchdowns than their opponents on the season and rank 5th in first down rate differential, significantly higher than the Raiders.

The Chargers will be missing starting running back Melvin Gordon in this game, a big loss considering the Chargers are down to 4th string running back Kenneth Farrow, an undrafted rookie, with backups Danny Woodhead and Darren Oliver already out for the season. However, the Raiders will be without top safety Karl Joseph, who has been one of the Raiders’ best defensive players this season and one of the top defensive rookies in the NFL, so it kind of cancels out.

Gordon’s injury certainly doesn’t warrant a line movement all the way from San Diego -1 to Oakland -3 in one week, especially when the Raiders lost in Kansas City last week. The Chargers also have no upcoming distractions with a trip to Cleveland on deck. They will almost definitely be road favorites in Cleveland and home underdogs are 81-44 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. About 1 in 4 games are decided by a field goal or less (including 4 of the Raiders’ 10 wins), so I’d put money on San Diego at 3, but I also like the Chargers’ chances of winning straight up.

San Diego Chargers 23 Oakland Raiders 20 Upset Pick +130

Pick against the spread: San Diego +3

Confidence: Medium

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Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: 2016 Week 14 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (10-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (9-3)

Back in week 6, the Chiefs clobbered the Raiders in Oakland, 26-10, easily the Chiefs’ most impressive game of the season. The Chiefs won the first down battle 22 to 16 and won the first down rate battle by a margin of +5.80%. That was easily the best game the Chiefs have played this season though and there’s no guarantee they can play that well again. Despite a 9-3 record, the Chiefs enter this game 27th in first down rate differential and have allowed 34 more first downs than they’ve gained and 4 more offensive touchdowns than they’ve scored.

They’ve won 9 games because of five wins by a touchdown or less (including 2 in overtime), a +6 margin in return touchdowns, and a + 14 turnover margin. Unfortunately for them, there’s zero week-to-week consistency or correlation in turnover margins (and, as a result, in return touchdown margins). For this reason, I love betting against teams that have strong turnover margins, as they tend to be overrated by traditional metrics. In the past two weeks alone, the Chiefs have scored 25 points on a special teams safety, a safety return touchdown, a pick six, a pick two, and a fake punt touchdown in two games they won by a combined 4 points. A win is a win, but at some point, they’re going to have to start consistently moving the ball better than their opponents to win games.

Fortunately for them, they’re as healthy right now as they’ve been in a while. They’ve gotten their top pass rusher Justin Houston back from off-season surgery and this week will get their top wide receiver Jeremy Maclin back from a 4-game absence with a groin injury. Aside from starting defensive end Jaye Howard, they aren’t missing any key players right now, so they’re healthier than most teams in the league right now. Also fortunately for them, the Raiders are also not as good as their record, as just 3 of their 10 wins have come by more than a touchdown and their turnover margin is +12, 3rd best in the NFL. Despite a 10-2 record, they have just 8 more first downs and 3 more offensive touchdowns than their opponents and rank 17th in first down rate differential. I have them ranked slightly higher than the Chiefs and I’m taking them for a low confidence pick as 3 point road underdogs, but there’s not enough for me to put money on them because both teams enter this game overrated.

Kansas City Chiefs 17 Oakland Raiders 16

Pick against the spread: Oakland +3

Confidence: Low

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Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders: 2016 Week 13 NFL Pick

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Buffalo Bills (6-5) at Oakland Raiders (9-2)

This line at 3 in favor of the hometown Oakland Raiders seems to be confusing a lot of people, as the public is all over the favorite. That’s understandable, as the Bills are 6-5 and the Raiders are 9-2, but the Raiders have won 7 of their 9 games by a touchdown or less and have just 4 wins in regulation all season by more than a field goal. In fact, they enter this game 18th in first down rate differential, just two spots ahead of the Bills who rank 20th in that metric. With that in mind, I’m actually going to fade the public and take the points here. Not only do I love fading the public, as they always lose money in the long run, I also love betting against favorites that have to play again in a few days on Thursday Night Football, as favorites are 56-83 ATS in that spot since 2008. The Raiders could get caught looking past the Bills with a matchup with division rival Kansas City right around the corner. I wish we were getting more points and I wouldn’t recommend betting any money on it, but the Bills are the pick in pick ‘em leagues.

Oakland Raiders 19 Buffalo Bills 17

Pick against the spread: Buffalo +3

Confidence: None

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Carolina Panthers at Oakland Raiders: 2016 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Carolina Panthers (4-6) at Oakland Raiders (8-2)

Along with Denver/Kansas City, this is another game where I’m holding out hope that the line drops to a field goal before gametime. This line is currently 3.5 in favor of the hometown Oakland Raiders, but 1 in 6 games are decided by exactly a field goal so that’s a critical half point. The Raiders are a significantly better team, especially with Carolina missing middle linebacker Luke Kuechly and center Ryan Kalil with injury, and they’re in a better spot (they host Buffalo next week, while Carolina has to go to Seattle), but there’s not enough here for me to be confident in the Raiders at 3.5.

Oakland Raiders 23 Carolina Panthers 17

Pick against the spread: Oakland -3.5

Confidence: Low

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Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders: 2016 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Houston Texans (6-3) vs. Oakland Raiders (7-2) in Mexico City

The Texans are 6-3, but rank just 26th in first down rate differential. That’s because their 5 wins have come by a combined 36 points, while their 3 losses have come by a combined 63 points. Their -27 point differential is also just 26th in the NFL. The Raiders have also had a lot of close wins, as 5 of their 7 wins have come by a touchdown or fewer, and they rank just 18th in first down rate differential. They’ve played a lot better in recent weeks though, with 2 of their last 3 wins coming by double digits, including a huge 10-point home victory over the Broncos before their bye. Coming into the season, I thought they were one of the most talented teams in the league and they’re finally playing like it.

That being said, this line is pretty high at 6, considering this isn’t even a true home game for the Raiders. From what I’ve heard, the Raiders have a relatively strong following in Mexico, but the Texans are one of the closest teams to the border, so they probably have some support there as well. Even if we give the Raiders a point for homefield advantage, that means the Raiders are 5 points better than the Texans. At their best they might be, but they’ve been inconsistent this season and are not exactly blowing teams out regularly, so the points are the safer bet in this game.

Oakland Raiders 17 Houston Texans 13

Pick against the spread: Houston +6

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: 2016 Week 9 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2016 NFL Picks, 2016 Week 9 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (6-2)

The Raiders are 6-2, but they’ve been one of the most disappointing teams in the league in my opinion. Stacked with young talent and coming off of an off-season in which they had a ton of cap space and added a lot of talent in free agency, I had the Raiders finishing 2nd in the AFC before the season started. They enter this game tied for the 2nd seed with the visiting Denver Broncos, but 5 of their 6 wins have come by 7 points or fewer. They also enter this game just 27th in first down percentage differential, thanks in large part to a defense that is allowing the 7th highest first down percentage in the league. They’re far more talented than that suggests, especially on defense, as they’re one of the most well-rounded teams in the league on paper, but they have not played up to their talent level thus far this season. Somehow, despite an infusion of talent in free agency, their defense has been worse in 2016 than in 2015.

This would be a good time for them to start doing that, as this game could end up deciding the division and possibly even a first round bye. The Broncos have exceeded my expectations a little bit this season, as their offense has looked good at times and their defense has remained one of the best in the league, despite off-season losses of Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan and an injury to DeMarcus Ware. They enter this game 2nd in first down percentage differential. Their defense will be tested in a big way this week though, with starting cornerback Aqib Talib out with a back injury. He’s been one of the best cornerbacks in the league this season. If the Raiders play like they can on both sides of the ball, not just on offense, they should be able to win this game at home. Given that, the Raiders are the pick here as mere 1 point home favorites, but I’m not confident enough in them right now to put money on them.

Oakland Raiders 20 Denver Broncos 16

Pick against the spread: Oakland -1

Confidence: Low

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Oakland Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 2016 Week 8 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (5-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3)

The Raiders were one of my underrated teams coming into the season but, despite a 5-2 start, I’ve been very disappointed with them. Their record is misleading as their point differential is just +6 and they rank just 27th in first down percentage differential. Their offense, which ranks 11th in first down percentage, might actually be exceeding my expectations a little bit, but their defense has been horrendous, as they rank 27th in first down percentage allowed and have not played up to their talent level at all. That could still happen going forward, as they are, on paper, one of the more complete teams in the NFL, with strong talent on both sides of the ball, but it’s far from a guarantee at this point.

That being said, like I did last week when they were 1 point underdogs in Jacksonville, I’m taking them as 1 point underdogs in Tampa Bay this week, for similar reasons. The Raiders had their most impressive game of the season in last week’s win against the Jaguars, winning 33-16, hopefully a sign of more to come. The Buccaneers are a comparable team to the Jaguars. They also have had a horrible homefield advantage in recent years, going 17-31 ATS at home since 2010, while the Raiders are 14-6 ATS on the road in the past 3 seasons. Given that, this line should be around 3 in favor of the Raiders. The Buccaneers are also in a tough spot with a Thursday Night game against the Falcons on deck. The Buccaneers could easily look ahead past this non-conference game to their matchup with the division leader in 4 days. Favorites are 50-79 ATS since 2008 before Thursday Night Football. The Raiders are the pick here and are worth picking all the way up to Oakland -2.5.

Oakland Raiders 24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Oakland +1

Confidence: High

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Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars: 2016 Week 7 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (4-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3)

The Raiders were one of my underrated teams coming into the season but, despite a 4-2 start, I’ve been very disappointed with them. Their record is misleading, as their first 5 games were all decided by a touchdown or fewer (with 3 of them decided by 3 points or fewer). The only game they’ve played that’s been decisive either way was last week’s crushing 26-10 home loss to divisional rival Kansas City. They also rank 27th in first down percentage differential, thanks primarily to a defense that ranks 29th in first down percentage allowed.

Their offense, which ranks 9th in first down percentage, might actually be exceeding my expectations a little bit, but their defense has been horrendous, as they have not played up to their talent level at all. That could still happen going forward, as they are, on paper, one of the more complete teams in the NFL, with strong talent on both sides of the ball, but it’s far from a guarantee at this point. A week ago, I would have been all over Oakland as underdogs of any amount of points in Jacksonville, but I’m less confident in them now, as 1 point road underdogs.

I am still taking Oakland though and it’s not because, on paper, they have a significant talent advantage. They’re also in a much better spot than the Jaguars, who have to turn around and play division rival Tennessee on Thursday Night next week. Favorites are just 50-77 ATS before Thursday Night Football since 2008. The Raiders, meanwhile, go to Tampa Bay next week to take on a Buccaneers team that isn’t that good, so they don’t have any upcoming distractions. On top of that, the Raiders have been much better on the road (13-6 ATS) than at home (6-12 ATS) over the past few years, dating back to 2014. I’m still putting money on the Raiders, but this would have been a higher confidence pick a week ago.

Oakland Raiders 24 Jacksonville Jaguars 20 Upset Pick +100

Pick against the spread: Oakland +1

Confidence: Medium

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Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: 2016 Week 6 NFL Pick

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Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) at Oakland Raiders (4-1)

This is easily the most confusing line of the week. I’ve had the Raiders on my underrated list since the start of the season and I still think they have one of the more talented rosters in the NFL, even if they haven’t had a convincing victory over anyone through 5 weeks. The Raiders have started 4-1 though, so I figured they’d still be at least field goal favorites here at home against a Chiefs team that’s average at best without top pass rusher Justin Houston, who remains out with a knee injury. Instead, the Raiders are inexplicably 2 point home underdogs. There’s a significant talent gap between these two teams and I would have had the line at least 4 in favor of the Raiders, so we’re getting a great value with the Raiders here for some reason.

The Raiders don’t even have a tough upcoming game that could be a distraction. Next week, they travel to Jacksonville to face a Jaguars team that’s currently 1-3. In fact, the Raiders are expected to be road favorites in Jacksonville next week, even as much as the oddsmakers seem to underestimate them. Home underdogs are 77-45 ATS since 2002 before being road favorites. The early line only has the Raiders as 2.5 point road favorites next week, but that could easily jump to 4 if the Raiders have a strong showing here, which I expect them to do. This is my Pick of the Week. The money line is also a great value at +115.

Oakland Raiders 24 Kansas City Chiefs 17 Upset Pick +115

Pick against the spread: Oakland +2

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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