Raiders

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 13 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 13 NFL Picks, Chiefs, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

Kansas City Chiefs (6-5) at Oakland Raiders (5-6)

This line was 2.5 in favor of the Chiefs on the early line last week, but has since moved to a field goal. It might not seem like it, but, considering about 1 in 6 games are decided by a field goal exactly, it’s a significant line movement. I like to fade significant line movements whenever it makes sense and I think it makes sense here. The Raiders are missing key players, as defensive end Justin Tuck went down for the season week 5, outside linebacker Aldon Smith got suspended for a year week 11, and center Rodney Hudson will miss his 3rd game in the last 4 weeks. Those were all key players to their hot early start

However, the Chiefs are shorthanded as well, missing outside linebacker Justin Houston (one of the top defensive players in the league), center Mitch Morse, and safety Husain Abdullah. The Chiefs rank 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Raiders rank 15th, so it doesn’t make a ton of sense that the Chiefs are favored by a whole field goal in Oakland. Despite that, the public is all over the Chiefs. I love fading the public whenever it makes sense because the public always loses money in the long run and I’d be able to fade the public and a significant line movement by taking the Raiders here. That certainly makes sense and I’m taking the field goal with confidence.

Oakland Raiders 19 Kansas City Chiefs 17 Upset Pick +120

Pick against the spread: Oakland +3

Confidence: Medium

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Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans: 2015 Week 12 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (4-6) at Tennessee Titans (2-8)

The Raiders have lost 3 straight games since their 4-3 start, as player losses have caught up with them. They lost defensive end Justin Tuck for the season to injury before their bye week and have been without him for the past 5 games. Center Rodney Hudson is expected to miss his 2nd game in the past 3 weeks with an ankle injury. And outside linebacker Aldon Smith was suspended for the season before last week’s game and will miss his 2nd straight game this week. Those were 3 of their best players. The Raiders rank 15th in rate of moving the chains differential, but their talent level is much less than that without Tuck, Smith, and Hudson.

Tennessee, meanwhile, ranks 25th, but they have been significantly better offensively when talented rookie quarterback Marcus Mariota has been healthy. In the 8 games he’s played, they’ve moved the chains at a 72.27% rate, as opposed to 57.41% in the 2 games he missed. They also get top wide receiver Kendall Wright back from a 3 game absence this week and cornerback Perrish Cox returned last week, after missing 3 games. They’re missing cornerback Jason McCourty for the season and could be without outside linebacker Derrick Morgan, though McCourty has already missed 6 games and Morgan is expected to play. They’re missing fewer players than the Raiders and should not be home underdogs here by any amount, even only a couple points.

The Titans are in a much better spot than the Raiders too, hosting the lowly Jaguars next week, while the Raiders have to host a surging Chiefs team. Favorites are 96-166 ATS since 2008 before being underdogs (which the Raiders will be next week) when their opponent will next be favorites (which the Titans will be next week). On top of that, road favorites are 79-123 ATS before being home underdogs since 1989, including 8-23 ATS when their opponent will next be favorites. While the Raiders could be distracted this week by a tough, upcoming home game, the Titans should be focused. Because of that, they should be able to beat the banged up, slumping Raiders. Despite that, the public is all over the Raiders as road favorites. The public always loses money in the long run so I like to fade the public whenever it makes sense, which it does here. This has all the elements of a Pick of the Week.

Tennessee Titans 24 Oakland Raiders 17 Upset Pick +105

Pick against the spread: Tennessee +2

Confidence: Pick of the Week

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Oakland Raiders at Detroit Lions: 2015 Week 11 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (4-5) at Detroit Lions (2-7)

The Raiders get talented center Rodney Hudson back from a one game absence this week, but they’ve also lost talented edge rusher Aldon Smith for the season with a suspension. Oakland has a solid offense (8th in rate of moving the chains) and one that is still at essentially full health with Hudson returning, but their defense isn’t nearly as good and has especially struggled without talented defensive end Justin Tuck, who went down for the season around a month ago. Now without Aldon Smith, this defense gets really thin on talent behind 2nd year player Khalil Mack, free agent acquisition Dan Williams, and ageless wonder Charles Woodson.

Still, this line, in which the Raiders are favored by only a point in Detroit, is too low. Despite their very close victory in Green Bay last week, the Lions still rank 31st in rate of moving the chains differential (the Raiders are 11th on the season). The Lions are also in an awful spot this week, caught in between last week’s huge, emotional upset victory and a tough home game against the Eagles on Thanksgiving 4 days after this one, in which they’re expected to be 3 point home underdogs. Teams are 36-58 ATS since 1989 off of a road victory as 10+ point underdogs, while teams are 76-119 ATS before being 3+ point home underdogs since 2012.

The Lions aren’t guaranteed to be field goal home underdogs next week, but, either way, the logic still stands; it’s going to be hard for the Lions to focus on the Raiders off of such a big victory last week with such a big home game on deck, especially given that it’s in 4 days on Thanksgiving. The Lions have covered just once before their previous 10 Thanksgiving games. The Raiders, meanwhile, just have a trip to Tennessee, where they should be road favorites, on deck. I wish the Lions were favored, even if only by a point or two, as favorites are 43-68 ATS since 2008 before a Thursday Night game, but there’s enough here for me to put money on the Raiders. They should win and we’re getting field goal protection and then some with them.

Oakland Raiders 24 Detroit Lions 20

Pick against the spread: Oakland -1

Confidence: Medium

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Minnesota Vikings at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 10 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 10 NFL Picks, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized, Vikings

Minnesota Vikings (6-2) at Oakland Raiders (4-4)

I love fading significant week-to-week line movements whenever it makes sense, as they tend to be overreactions to one week of play. This line was a pick ‘em a week ago, but now favors Oakland by 3, pretty significant, considering about 23.3% of games are decided by 3 or fewer points and 15.6% by exactly a field goal. The Raiders are a solid squad, ranking 13th in rate of moving the chains differential, but the Vikings rank higher, ranking 10th. On top of that, the Raiders are expected to be without talented center Rodney Hudson, while, on the other side, talented defensive tackle Sharrif Floyd is expected to return for the Vikings.

The Vikings have had one of the easiest schedules in the NFL (San Francisco, Detroit, San Diego, Denver, Kansas City, Detroit, Chicago, St. Louis) and could be distracted with an upcoming home game against the Packers, which will be easily their biggest game to date. They are expected to be 3 point home underdogs and teams are 75-113 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point home underdogs, including 43-80 ATS over that same time period before being 4+ point home underdogs. The Vikings aren’t guaranteed to be home underdogs of that many, but the logic holds either way. This could be a look ahead game for the Vikings, while the Raiders face one of the worst teams in the league, the Detroit Lions, next week. It’s still tough to get excited about the Raiders, so this will be a no confidence pick, but they should be the right side. This game has a very good chance to be a field goal game though, so if the line moves to 3.5, I’d probably take the Vikings.

Oakland Raiders 20 Minnesota Vikings 16

Pick against the spread: Oakland -3

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers: 2015 Week 9 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (4-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-4)

This line, Pittsburgh by 5 at home, suggests that the Steelers are measurably better than the Raiders. The Raiders rank 12th in rate of moving the chains, while the Steelers rank 18th, but that’s largely because the Steelers were without Ben Roethlisberger for 4 ½ games. In the 3 games that Roethlisberger has started and finished, the Steelers have moved the chains at a 77.08% rate, as opposed to 65.19% in their other 5 games, so obviously having him back from injury is huge. However, he didn’t look 100% in his first game back last week, so it’s hard to trust that he’s going to be 100% this week.

The Steelers are also really banged up on offense around him, missing left tackle Kelvin Beachum and running back Le’Veon Bell for the year and center Maurkice Pouncey indefinitely. All 3 of those players were huge parts of their dominant offense last season, an offense that sustained next to no injuries, which obviously hasn’t been the case this season. Their young defense has been better this year, ranking 13th in rate of moving the chains allowed, after ranking 25th last season, but it’s hard to trust that their offense is going to play well this week.

The Raiders, meanwhile, have had next to no injuries this season, though they did lose talented defensive lineman Justin Tuck for the season a few weeks back. Their defense hasn’t been measurably worse in the 2 games since, but they definitely do miss him, at least somewhat. They’re also in a bad spot, following a home upset win over the Jets last week, as teams are 59-103 ATS off of a win as home underdogs since 2010. For that reason, I’m taking the Steelers, but I’m not confident at all.

Pittsburgh Steelers 27 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against the spread: Pittsburgh -5

Confidence: None

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New York Jets at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 8 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 8 NFL Picks, Jets, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

New York Jets (4-2) at Oakland Raiders (3-3)

Both of these teams have exceeded expectations this season, after being among the worst teams in the league last season. However, the Jets have been significantly better, ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains differential, while Oakland comes in 17th. Ryan Fitzpatrick has bounced back well from a broken leg that ended his 2014 season and has continued his surprisingly solid play from 2013 and 2014 in Tennessee and Houston, giving the Jets arguably the best quarterback they’ve had since Chad Pennington. Wide receivers Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker give him a pair of talented targets to throw to and running back Chris Ivory has broken out as a legitimate feature back. Meanwhile, a veteran offensive line has rolled back the clock a little bit and played very well.

Defensively, new head coach Todd Bowles has improved a defense that was already pretty solid to begin with, in large part due to big contributions from free agent acquisition cornerback Darrelle Revis and first round pick defensive end Leonard Williams. Last week, they led in the 4th quarter in New England, before eventually losing by a touchdown. Oakland is better on both sides of the ball this year too, thanks to rookie wide receiver (4th overall) Amari Cooper, free agent acquisition wide receiver Michael Crabtree, and much improved 2nd year quarterback Derek Carr on offense, and free agent acquisitions defensive tackle Dan Williams and outside linebacker Aldon Smith on defense. Williams and Smith lead a solid front 7 with holdovers defensive end Justin Tuck and outside linebacker Khalil Mack, both of whom have played better this year than last year.

Unfortunately, Tuck is now out for the year with injury, as of a few weeks ago. They were able to win in San Diego last week, in their first week without him, but their defense didn’t really play that well in that one, as they won on the strength of their offense. That’s going to be harder to do against the Jets, given that the Jets still rank 1st in rate of moving the chains differential after a trip to New England last week. The Raiders have barely had any injuries this season, so losing Tuck really hurts their defense. The Jets have some injuries of their own, as center Nick Mangold and safety Calvin Pryor are out for this one, which also definitely hurts, considering those players are both talented starters and considering they haven’t really had any injuries yet either. However, this line is still too low at 3.

The Jets are also in a better spot, as they’re in their 2nd of two road games. Teams are 49-33 ATS as road favorites off a road loss since 2008, including 41-27 ATS when it’s their 2nd of 2 road games. This is because teams tend to do better in their 2nd straight road game than their first one, but lines don’t really adjust for this. Teams are 204-212 straight up in their 2nd of two road games since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 0.51 points per game, as opposed to 296-411 straight up in their 1st of one road game since 2008, getting outscored by an average of 2.94 points per game. On top of that, they have an easier game than the Raiders do on deck, as they host the Jaguars, while the Raiders have to go to Pittsburgh. With the public all over the Jets, I don’t think there’s not quite enough here for me to put money on the Jets unless this line goes under a field goal, but they should be the right side.

New York Jets 19 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: NY Jets -3

Confidence: Low

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Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers: 2015 Week 7 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 7 NFL Picks, Chargers, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

Oakland Raiders (2-3) at San Diego Chargers (2-4)

The Chargers are 2-4, but they’re much better than their record, as they rank 9th in rate of moving the chains differential. They’ve only had a negative rate of moving the chains differential in 2 of 6 games, in Cincinnati and in Minnesota, two teams that are a combined 9-2. They won the chains battle in Green Bay last week, where it’s borderline impossible to win. The Chargers still lost the game by a touchdown, getting stopped on 4th down on the goal line at the last second, but it was still a very impressive performance, especially given that the Packers were going into a bye. The week prior, they lost at home to the Steelers, but they dominated the chains battle and could have easily won by 10+ if they didn’t throw a pick six, give up a long touchdown, and drop 3 interceptions. Aside from a few plays, they were clearly the better of those two teams.

The Chargers are banged up going into this one, with safety Eric Weddle, one of the best defensive players in the league, expected to miss this one. Tight end Antonio Gates could join him, after not practicing all week, meaning he’s probably on the doubtful side of questionable. However, they’ve been banged up all year. Cornerbacks Brandon Flowers and Jason Verrett have both dealt with injury, as have offensive linemen King Dunlap and Orlando Franklin. Flowers and Verrett are fully healthy now and Dunlap and Franklin are expected to return this week, a huge boost for an offensive line that has struggled without them.

The Raiders, meanwhile, rank 15th in rate of moving the chains, much better than normal for this franchise, but still significantly behind San Diego. Plus, while the Chargers are arguably healthier now than they’ve been all season, the Raiders were dealt their first major injury blow of the season in their last game, losing Justin Tuck for the season. Tuck was such a huge part of a surprisingly strong Oakland front 7 and he’ll be very much missed. The Raiders deserve to be underdogs of more than 4, especially given that they have a tough test at home against the Jets next week, a game in which they are expected to be 3+ point home underdogs.

Teams are 71-116 ATS since 2012 before being home underdogs of 3+ and 40-78 ATS over that same time period before being 4+ point home underdogs. The Raiders are not guaranteed to be 3+ point home underdogs, but, even if they aren’t, the logic still holds. They have a much tougher upcoming game than the Chargers, who go to Baltimore to face a Ravens team that could be 1-6 if they lose in Arizona as big underdogs this week. That difference could show on the field. There’s not enough here for me to put money on the Chargers, but they should be the right side.

San Diego Chargers 27 Oakland Raiders 20

Pick against the spread: San Diego -4

Confidence: Low

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Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders: 2015 Week 5 NFL Pick

stevenlourie 2015 NFL Picks, 2015 Week 5 NFL Picks, Broncos, NFL Picks, Raiders, Uncategorized

Denver Broncos (4-0) at Oakland Raiders (2-2)

The Broncos are one of six remaining undefeated teams, but haven’t been as dominant as they typically have been in the Peyton Manning era. Their matchups with Baltimore, Kansas City, and Minnesota all could have gone a different way, while their 24-12 win in Detroit wasn’t that much less of a nail biter. They rank just 11th in rate of moving the chains differential, dominating on defense, ranking 4th in rate of moving the chains allowed, but their offense has not been very good at all, ranking 24th in rate of moving the chains. Peyton Manning’s age is definitely showing in his age 39 season and their offensive line and running back play have been awful. They’re still a top team in the AFC because they have one of the most talented teams in the league and are coached by legendary defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, but this is probably overall the worst Denver team in the Peyton Manning era.

The Raiders, meanwhile, are not as bad as they usually are and rank 18th in rate of moving the chains differential. I don’t think they’re a real playoff contender or anything, as evidenced by their loss in Chicago last week and their week 1 blowout loss at home against the Bengals, but they’re definitely going to be tougher for the Broncos than they usually are. That being said, the Broncos should still be the right side here as 5 point road favorites in Oakland.

The Broncos are in a good spot because they’re projected to be big road favorites again next week in Cleveland. The early line has them favored by 5.5 points. Teams are 101-74 ATS since 2012 before being 3+ point road favorites, 64-44 ATS before being 4+ point road favorites, and 41-26 ATS before being 6+ point road favorites. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you’re about to play an easy opponent, so you don’t have any real upcoming distractions. Two, you’re a really good football team. In this scenario, it’s a little bit of both. The Raiders don’t have any upcoming distractions either, heading into a bye, but usually not having an upcoming distraction benefits the better team more than the underdog. I’m not confident in the Broncos or anything, but they’re my pick.

Denver Broncos 20 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: Denver -5

Confidence: None

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Oakland Raiders at Chicago Bears: 2015 Week 4 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (2-1) at Chicago Bears (0-3)

It’s still unknown who the Bears quarterback will be this week at home for the Raiders. Jimmy Clausen started last week, after coming on in relief of an injured Jay Cutler the prior week. Cutler did get some practice in this week, but he’s reportedly dealing with a pretty severe hamstring pull. The team hasn’t provided any real clarity and it’s possible that they’re just keeping his status a secret to make the Raiders have to prepare for both quarterbacks. This line, at 3.5 in favor of the visiting Raiders, suggests that the odds makers don’t believe Cutler will play and that usually means something.

I like the Bears to cover this week either way, but I’d only put money on them if Cutler were to play and the Bears were to remain underdogs. I don’t really have interest in putting money on Jimmy Clausen, who has completed 53.2% of his passes for an average of 5.08 YPA, 5 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in his career. Last week, he completed 9 of 17 for 63 yards in a game in which the Bears lost 26-0 and picked up just 7 first downs, fewest by a team in a game thus far this season.

That shutout loss did come against a Seahawks defense that is arguably the league’s toughest, especially in Seattle, where they’re are so good. Even if Clausen is forced into action again, he will have a much easier matchup this team around, though Alshon Jeffery being out again and left tackle Jermon Bushrod joining him on the sideline isn’t good news. The Raiders front seven is much improved, with Khalil Mack and Justin Tuck having good seasons again and free agent acquisitions Aldon Smith and Dan Williams joining them, but their secondary is still porous. Both the Ravens and the Bengals moved the ball through the air effectively against them and even Josh McCown had some success, though the majority of it came once the Browns fell down big early.

The Bears are also in a great spot because of what happened last week. Teams tend to bounce back off of back-to-back losses of 21+ (the Bears also lost by 25 week 2, at home against the Cardinals), going 41-25 ATS in that spot since 2002. On the other side, the Raiders are in a bad spot, hosting the Broncos next week, arguably their biggest game not just of the season, but of the last few seasons for a team that’s been so starved for success over the past decade plus.

The Raiders are expected to be 6.5 point underdogs next week when the Broncos come to town. Teams are 35-74 ATS since 2012 before being 4+ point home underdogs, 19-49 ATS before being 6+ point home underdogs, and 12-28 ATS before being 7+ point home underdogs. That’s because when you have a game coming up like that it generally means one of two things. One, you’re about to host a very tough opponent, serving as a distraction. Two, you really aren’t that good of a football team. In this scenario, it’s more than former than the latter (though I’m still not sold on this team as a real contender), but still. On top of that, road favorites are 78-120 ATS since 1989 before being home underdogs and 6-24 ATS as 3.5+ point road favorites before being 3.5+ point home underdogs, for the same reasons.

Given that, it’s going to be tough for the Raiders to cover as not only favorites, but favorites of more than a field goal, especially since this is the first time the Raiders have been road favorites since 2012. The Raiders haven’t covered as road favorites since 2005 and are just 1-5 ATS as road favorites dating back to the start of the 2003 season, right after their most recent winning season in 2002. The Bears do have to go to Kansas City next week and teams are 51-90 ATS since 2010 before being double digit underdogs. The Bears are currently expected to be 12 point underdogs in the early line, though it’s unclear which quarterback that line assumes they’ll be starting. If it’s Cutler, that line shouldn’t be that high and might not be by gametime. Like I said, I wouldn’t put money on the Bears unless Cutler is able to play and even then I’d only do it if the Bears were to remain home underdogs, but Chicago should be the right side.

Update: Jay Cutler is expected to start and the line hasn’t moved, staying at 3.5. I guess the odds makers thought that Cutler would play the whole time. Cutler won’t be at 100% and neither will his supporting cast, but the Raiders aren’t proven enough yet to be favored by more than a field goal on the road against anyone other than the most pitiful of teams and I don’t think the Bears are that kind of team with Cutler. They kept it close at home against Green Bay week 1 with Jay Cutler and were keeping it close at home against Arizona before Cutler got hurt. Those teas are both 3-0, so I don’t know why they wouldn’t be able to keep it close with the Raiders. On top of that,the Bears are in a much better spot than the Raiders are. I’d put money on the home underdog at 3.5 and the money line at +150.

Chicago Bears 23 Oakland Raiders 20 Upset Pick +150

Pick against the spread: Chicago +3.5

Confidence: Medium

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Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns: 2015 Week 3 NFL Pick

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Oakland Raiders (1-1) at Cleveland Browns (1-1)

Both of these teams won as home underdogs last week, pushing themselves to 1-1. However, I think the Browns are a significantly better team than the Raiders. The Browns have noted issues in the passing game and minimal offensive skill position talent, but they have one of the best offensive lines in football and a solid defense. The Raiders’ roster is still much thinner on talent. They were able to knock off the Baltimore in last second, upset fashion last week, but I think that will prove to be more of a fluke than anything when we look back at their season. This line (Cleveland -3.5) suggests that these two teams are essentially even, which I disagree with.

The Raiders are also on the road now, where they haven’t won since week 11 of 2013. They were given a gift by the league scheduler when they were given two home games to start the season. Not only does that increase your chances of getting some wins, even some fluky wins, early, but, when you do go on the road in week 3, you tend to cover the spread because you’re the more rested squad. Teams who have their first road game of the season week 3 are 40-27 ATS since 1989. Still, it’s really hard to like the Raiders on the road here, especially as a Pacific Time Zone team playing in a 1 PM ET start time game in the Eastern Time Zone. On top of that, the Raiders are 8-23 ATS off of a win since 2009. The Browns should be able to beat them pretty easily.

Cleveland Browns 23 Oakland Raiders 13

Pick against the spread: Cleveland -3.5

Confidence: Medium

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